Author: dredheadz

The Markets

Generally encouraging data that suggested winter’s economic deep freeze might be thawing led to broad-based gains for equities despite some slippage at week’s end. The Dow finally managed to surpass briefly the record closing high it hadn’t seen since New Year’s Eve. However, of the four domestic indices, the S&P 500 remained the only one still in positive territory year-to-date. Meanwhile, the Fed’s steady-as-she-goes approach to tapering helped boost demand for the benchmark 10-year Treasury, whose yield fell to its lowest level so far this year.

Last Week’s Headlines

• As expected, economic growth stalled during the first quarter, falling from 2.9% in Q4 2013 to the current 0.1% (though that figure will be subject to two revisions over the next two months). The Bureau of Economic Analysis said lower exports, less spending by businesses on fixed investments and inventory, and reduced spending by local and state governments were key to the decline.
• The unemployment rate saw its biggest drop since December 2010, falling from 6.7% to 6.3% in April; that’s the lowest it’s been since September 2008. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of new jobs created–288,000–was far greater than the last 12 months’ 190,000 monthly average and represented the strongest job creation in more than two years. Gains were broadly distributed, led by employment in business and professional services, retail, restaurants/bars, and construction. However, the report wasn’t all good news; the drop in the unemployment rate resulted partly from 806,000 people leaving the labor force.
• Consumer spending rebounded from the previous two months’ deep freeze, rising an inflation-adjusted 0.7% in March. Even better, the Commerce Department said the spending was widespread, with the biggest gains in durable goods, which rose 2.7% (about half of which was purchases of cars and car parts). The bad news? Spending on durable goods was down 2.2% from the previous March, and one reason for March’s higher sales was a 0.5% jump in the cost of food. Nondurable goods were up 0.9% for the month, while spending on services rose 0.4% and personal income was up 0.5%.
• Business for U.S. manufacturers also accelerated coming out of the frigid winter. The April reading on the most recent Institute for Supply Management survey rose to 54.9%, its highest level since December, and all but one of the 18 industries reporting saw gains. In addition, the Commerce Department said orders at U.S. factories were up 1.1% in March; a 3.5% jump in business spending on capital equipment (not including the volatile aircraft sector) was the biggest increase in that figure since January 2013.
• Home prices in the cities tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index were relatively flat for the month, rising only 0.2% as 13 of the 20 cities showed declines. Also, the 12.9% year-over-year gain was slightly lower than the previous 12 months’ 13.2% increase.
• As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee once again cut its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion, leaving them at $45 billion a month. The committee also reiterated its belief that its target interest rate will remain at its current level well after bond purchases end.

Eye on the Week Ahead

With few economic reports on tap this week, investors’ focus could be overseas. Heightened tensions over Ukraine could counterbalance any data-induced optimism, as they did last Friday. Also, the European Central Bank will meet Thursday, when additional economic stimulus measures could be on the table.

The Markets

The rotation out of momentum stocks that began in early March continued in April, hitting many of the tech and biotech high-fliers that had soared earlier in the year. That cost the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 dearly, leaving both with negative year-to-date returns. The Russell ended the month down 6.7% from its early March year-to-date high, while the Nasdaq slumped 5.6% over the same period. However, valuation concerns didn’t affect equities across the board. After setting a fresh closing high early in the month, the S&P 500 managed to hang on to its gains, emerging from April the clear year-to-date leader. Meanwhile, the Dow managed to squeak into positive territory for 2014 on the month’s final trading day by surpassing the all-time high it had not seen since New Year’s Eve. The Global Dow survived April’s volatility relatively well, especially considering geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the rotation in equities, a steady hand at the Fed, and little inflation in sight helped keep the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield low. The price of gold backed off after a $43-an-ounce mid-month spike to end April just below $1,300 an ounce, while the price of oil hovered within a dollar or two on either side of $100 a barrel.

The Month in Review

• Economic growth stalled during the first quarter, falling from 2.9% in Q4 2013 to the current 0.1%. The initial estimate will be subject to two revisions over the next two months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis attributed much of the decline to lower exports, less spending by businesses on fixed investments and inventory, and reduced spending by local and state governments.
• The U.S. economy created 192,000 new jobs in March, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its previous estimates for January and February upward. However, that did little to help the unemployment rate; because more people sought work, the unemployment rate remained stuck at 6.7%.
• Consumers emerged from hibernation, sending retail sales up 1.1% during the month. However, a 0.2% increase in the consumer inflation rate could have been responsible for a portion of the higher spending (retail sales aren’t adjusted for price increases). The Bureau of Labor Statistics said higher costs for food and shelter were responsible for much of the month’s increase in the Consumer Price Index, which put the inflation rate for the last 12 months at 1.5%. Meanwhile, wholesale prices, especially those for services, jumped 0.5% during the month.
• Manufacturing data was generally positive. Orders for big-ticket items were up 2.6%, and according to the Commerce Department, some of the biggest increases were in computers, electronics, and communications equipment. Industrial production also rose 0.7%, particularly in the mining and utilities sectors.
• Spring brought few signs of improvement in the housing market. The Commerce Department’s April release said new home sales plunged 14.5%, while the National Association of Realtors^® said sales of existing homes were down by only 0.2%. Housing starts were up almost 3% from February, but down 6% from a year earlier. Home prices in the 20 cities tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index were basically flat for the month, and year-over-year gains were less robust than in previous months.
• As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee once again cut its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion, leaving them at $45 billion a month. The Fed also reiterated its intention to keep its target interest rate at its current level well after bond purchases end.
• The Chinese economy showed signs of slowing; the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said the 7.4% growth over the last 12 months was slightly less than the previous quarter’s 7.7%, and below the official 7.5% target rate. Also, exports were down 6.6% in March, while imports fell more than 11%.
• The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% despite a 0.5% inflation rate that raised concerns about the possibility of deflation there.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Investors will have to assess whether the recent slump in equities is a case of “sell in May, go away” coming early and whether recent selling has worked off concerns about overvaluation. European Union parliamentary elections on May 22-25 will be watched for signs of increasing anti-EU sentiment that could jeopardize support for the financial system there. The Fed’s monetary policy committee will take a break in May, leaving investors to focus on economic data, earnings, and geopolitical considerations.

The Markets

After a mostly positive week, investors went into Friday seemingly determined to take some money off the table over a weekend when the Ukrainian conflict seemed to promise fresh sanctions against Russia. The small caps of the Russell 2000 took the brunt of the selling with a 1.9% losson Friday alone, while the S&P 500 was left essentially flat.

Last Week’s Headlines

• New home sales plummeted 14.5% in March; according to the Commerce Department, that’s the lowest level since July and more than 13% below March 2013. It’s the first time since September 2011 that year-over-year sales have dropped. The figures raised questions about how much of the recent slump was attributable to winter weather. However, the $290,000 median sales price was 12.6% higher than a year earlier.
• Sales of existing homes also slipped in March, but by only 0.2%, according to the National Association of Realtors®. That left them 7.5% below March 2013. Tight inventories continued to help push prices up; the NAR said the $198,500 median sales price was nearly 8% higher than in March 2013.
• Orders for big-ticket items such as aircraft and electronics surged 2.6% in March, following a 2.1% increase in February. The Commerce Department said the volatile transportation sector was up 4%, while non-transportation items also rose 2%, led by a 5.7% jump in computers and electronics and a nearly 8% increase in orders for communications equipment. Business orders for capital goods rose more than 7%.
• In the wake of an appeals court ruling that struck down so-called “net neutrality” regulations, the Federal Communications Commission proposed new rules that would allow broadband Internet service providers to charge content providers higher fees for speedier Internet connections as long as they did so in a “commercially reasonable” manner. The rules will be subject to public comment before going before the full commission for a vote, possibly later in the year.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Markets will have no shortage of potential influences next week. In addition to tension over Ukraine, the Federal Reserve will meet, though little change in its current tapering is expected. April unemployment figures and the first estimate of Q1 gross domestic product will be released, as will consumer spending and manufacturing data.

The Markets

Despite the holiday-shortened trading week, domestic equities managed to recapture virtually all of the ground lost the week before–and more important, the gains were across the board. Even the tech and biotech sectors that have suffered recently showed signs of stabilization, while the S&P 500 managed to return to positive territory for the year.

Last Week’s Headlines

• Springtime for retail: Shoppers emerged from hibernation and returned to stores again in March, according to the Commerce Department. Retail sales rose 1.1% from February, and were 3.8% higher than in March 2013. Auto sales were up 3.4% for the month and up 9.5% from March 2013. The figures were hailed as confirmation that frigid winter weather was a major factor in previous months’ sluggish sales.
• China’s economy grew 7.4% over the last year, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. That represents a slowing from the previous quarter’s annualized 7.7% rate, and is slightly below the targeted 7.5% growth for all of 2014. It also represents the nation’s slowest quarterly growth in 18 months. Chinese officials said weaker winter demand from the United States for exports and a sluggish housing market were major factors in the decline.
• Consumer prices rose 0.2% in March, helping to cut the inflation rate for the last 12 months slightly to 1.5%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the biggest increases were seen in the costs of food and shelter. Grocery prices overall were up .5% for the month and 1.7% for the year, while restaurant prices are up 2.3% since March 2013. The 2.7% increase in the cost of shelter since last March in part reflects rising home prices. Meanwhile, energy costs declined 0.1% in March, led by a 1.7% drop in gas prices.
• Housing starts improved in March, rising 2.8%, but were nevertheless almost 6% lower than March 2013. The Commerce Department said building permits–an indicator of future activity–fell 2.4% for the month but were more than 11% higher than the previous March.

• U.S. industrial production grew 0.7% in March, driven largely by mining and the utilities sector. Also, the Federal Reserve revised February’s 0.7% gain upward to 1.2%; it was the highest monthly growth rate in almost four years. The increases represent an annualized 4.4% growth rate in Q1. Meanwhile, the Fed’s April Empire State manufacturing survey slipped 4 points to 1.3, but the Philly Fed’s survey for the month rose from 9.0 to 16.6, its highest reading since last September and the second consecutive month of gains.
• The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the federal government’s cost of expanding health-care coverage under the Affordable Care Act (primarily from providing insurance premium subsidies) will be $36 billion in 2014–roughly 12% less than the amount predicted in February–and almost 7% ($100 billion) less than the $1,487 billion previously estimated for the next 10 years.
• The weekly earnings of full-time American workers during the first quarter were 3% higher than a year earlier; according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that’s the fastest annual growth since 2008 and was more than double the 1.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index over the last 12 months. The report said the increase put inflation-adjusted median weekly earnings at $796, their highest level since Q2 2012.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Data on home sales and manufacturing could suggest whether a spring rebound is in store. Many of the major Nasdaq tech companies will release Q1 earnings, which could influence whether last week’s rally shows some ongoing strength.

The Markets

The wave of tech and biotech selling that has taken the Nasdaq down more than 8% in just over a month spread to the large caps of the Dow and S&P 500 last week. However, the S&P is still only 4% away from the record close it hit less than two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the profit-taking in stocks sent the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down as demand pushed prices up.

Last Weeks’s Headlines

• Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent monetary policy meeting showed most committee members favor expanding the amount of detailed guidance about interest rates after rates begin to rise. The minutes also showed a general consensus that an increase isn’t likely for some time.
• Exports from China were down 6.6% in March from a year earlier and imports were down more than 11% over the same time, raising concerns about the implications for the global economy. The customs data followed reports that the World Bank’s forecast for Chinese growth this year had been cut slightly to 7.6%, while Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the economy might not reach its official targeted 7.5% growth rate.
• The International Monetary Fund’s semiannual report on its world economic outlook said global recovery is becoming stronger and broader. However, continuing problems in some emerging markets, notably Brazil and Russia, caused the IMF to cut its global growth rate forecast slightly to 3.6% for 2014 and 3.9% for next year. The 2.8% growth rate the IMF projects for the United States this year was unchanged from its January forecast.
• Wholesale prices jumped 0.5% in March; the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the increase could be attributed largely to the cost of services, which rose 0.7%.

Eye on the Week Ahead

As Q1 earnings season gets under way, forward guidance is likely to be just as significant as assessments of how earnings were affected by the weather; as economic data begin to reflect spring, a general failure to show improvement from winter’s numbers could be badly received by investors. Also, Wednesday will see the release of China’s Q1 GDP figures, which will be closely watched in light of last week’s signs of slowing trade.

The Markets

For the second straight week, the large caps of the Dow and S&P 500 fared better than the Nasdaq, which continued to be hurt by selling in the technology and biotech sectors that played such a big part in its 2013 gains. The S&P hit a new all-time closing high on Wednesday, while the Dow came close to matching the record close seen on New Year’s Eve 2013. Meanwhile, a jobs report that seemed to support the Fed’s current gradual tapering left bond markets relatively stable.

Last Week’s Headlines

•          The U.S. economy created 192,000 new jobs in March, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its figures for January and February upward. However, because more people sought work, the unemployment rate remained at 6.7%.
•          There was encouraging news about the U.S. manufacturing sector. After two months of declines, the Commerce Department said new orders at U.S. factories were up 1.6% in February, led by a 7% increase in transportation equipment, and shipments also rebounded. Manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management^® also showed accelerating growth in March; the half-percent increase to 53.7% was the 10th straight month of growth. And in the services sector, the ISM’s March survey also showed acceleration, with a 1.5-point increase to 53.1%.
•          Despite a 0.5% inflation rate–the lowest in more than four years–the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. President Mario Draghi said the ECB discussed adopting both conventional and extraordinary quantitative easing measures, including a negative deposit rate and asset purchases, to prevent the threat of deflation. Such measures could weaken the euro, potentially increasing European exports. However, the group decided to postpone action to see whether the inflation rate rises to a more acceptable level after the end of a warm winter that has cut heating and food prices there.
•          According to the Commerce Department, the U.S. trade deficit rose 7.6% in February to its highest level in five months as a 0.4% increase in imports, particularly oil, wasn’t enough to overcome a 1.1% decline in American exports.
•          Despite the winter weather, a 1.2% increase in money spent on commercial buildings helped push overall construction spending up 0.1% in February, according to the Commerce Department.
•          The Department of Justice confirmed that it is investigating the practice of high-frequency trading to see whether it has been used to violate insider trading laws. The SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission also are investigating HFT.
•          Past performance was no indicator of current results: Despite the troubled rollout of www.healthcare.gov, the White House said that by the March 31 deadline, more than 7 million individuals–the initial goal–had signed up (or were in the process of doing so) for health insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Investors will watch to see whether the tech selling continues and whether it spreads to the large-cap indices. However, they’ll have little economic data for guidance, though minutes of the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting could show the extent of any division among members about the future of interest rates.

The Markets

Ouch: Last week was large-cap stocks’ time to shine (or at least outperform). The Nasdaq’s 2.8% loss represented its worst week since early October 2012, and the small caps of the Russell 2000 suffered even more; both were hurt by selling in the tech and biotech sectors. Meanwhile, the Global Dow rebounded into positive territory year-to-date.

Last Week’s Headlines

• And then there were seven: The largest industrialized nations of the world suspended Russia’s 16-year-old membership in the G8 in retaliation for the annexation of Crimea.
• U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 gross domestic product was lower than Q3’s 4.1% gain. That helped cut inflation-adjusted GDP for all of 2013 to 1.9% compared to the previous year’s 2.8% growth. Meanwhile, after-tax corporate profits were up 2% for the quarter–slightly less than in Q3–and a 3.7% drop in corporate taxes last year left corporate after-tax profits up 6.9% for all of 2013.
• After two months of declines, durable goods orders were up 2.2% in February. According to the Commerce Department, a 1.8% increase in commercial aircraft and parts was a key factor in the nearly 7% increase in transportation orders, which led the overall improvement.
• New home sales fell 3.3% between January and February, and were 1.1% lower than in February 2013. However, the Commerce Department said the average sale price rose for the third straight month, though the $317,500 average price was still below the $335,600 seen in November.
• For the third month out of the last four, personal incomes rose 0.3%, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal consumption rose at the same rate.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Unemployment data will be of even more interest than usual as a potential indicator of any rebound–or lack thereof–from the effects of winter weather. A speech on Monday by Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be closely watched for any follow-up on her “six months after tapering ends” remark about the potential timing of Fed interest rate changes. The European Central Bank also is scheduled to meet, and global investors will want to know whether any additional steps will be taken to fight less-than-desirable inflation. Additional data on manufacturing and services also is on tap.

The Markets

The Fed taketh away and the Fed giveth: After domestic equities fell in the wake of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement, encouraging manufacturing data, also from the Fed, helped stocks rebound to end the week with a gain. The Dow, which has generally been bringing up the rear in recent weeks, led the pack, though it remained solidly in negative territory for the year, along with its overseas counterpart. Meanwhile, bonds took a hit because of questions about the timing of an increase in short-term interest rates.

Last Week’s Headlines

• As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee once again reduced its bond purchases by $10 billion a month. However, the committee’s statement said that rather than focusing primarily on a 6.5% unemployment rate to determine when to begin raising its target interest rate, policymakers would look at a variety of economic measures. The statement also forecast that an increase wouldn’t occur for “a considerable time” after the end of the bond-buying taper. When pressed about what that term might mean, new Chair Janet Yellen raised eyebrows by saying it could mean as soon as six months after tapering ends. A survey of Federal Open Market Committee members showed most expect the target rate, now close to zero, to end 2015 at 1%.
• Frigid weather across much of the country also seemed to freeze both new residential construction and sales of existing homes in February. According to the National Association of Realtors®, the weather plus ongoing low inventories and restricted credit availability cut home resales 0.4% during the month. And while building permits–an indicator of future activity–were up 7.7%, the Commerce Department said housing starts fell 0.2% in February.
• Food prices, especially those for food eaten at home, rose 0.4% in February, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics said accounted for roughly half of the 0.1% increase in all consumer prices during the month. The overall increase put the consumer inflation rate for the last year at 1.1%, approximately where it’s been for most of the last seven months.
• <?ff_pagebreak >Data from the Philly Fed manufacturing survey showed a strong rebound to a reading of 9 from February’s -6.3. And while the Fed’s Empire State survey showed little change in overall conditions, new orders and shipments were both up.
• Two major automakers hit speed bumps last week. General Motors issued its second major recall in two months, this one for 1.8 million cars; the company is already under investigation for ignition defects involved in a 1.6-million-car recall last month. Also, Toyota agreed to pay a record $1.2 billion criminal penalty to settle a Justice Department investigation of previous safety problems, and admitted it had misled consumers about a defect that caused cars to speed up when customers tried to brake.

Eye on the Week Ahead

After managing to shake off the Fed and the Crimean conflict last week, investors will likely pay extra attention to speeches by several members of the Fed’s monetary policy committee to see if they shed additional light on last week’s statements. Final U.S. GDP numbers for the fourth quarter and all of 2013 will be out, plus data on housing, manufacturing, and consumer spending.

The Markets

Disappointing economic data across the board from China plus the escalating tug-of-war over Crimea helped send equities south last week. The S&P 500’s decline put it back into negative territory for the year, while the instability in Ukraine sent investors scrambling for the relative security of U.S. Treasuries, sending the benchmark 10-year yield down as prices rose.

Last Week’s Headlines

• Retail sales rose 0.3% in February, according to the Commerce Department, putting them 1.5% higher than in February 2013. The strongest gains were seen in sporting goods/hobby/music stores, which were up 2.5% for the month, nonstore retailers (up 1.2%), and health/personal care stores, also up 1.2%.
• Multiple signs that China’s economic growth slowed in January and February raised concerns that demand for many emerging markets’ exports could decline. Figures from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics continued to show growth year-over-year; retail sales were up almost 12%, investments in fixed assets rose almost 18%, and industrial production was up 8.6%. However, all of those numbers were lower than in previous months, even after being adjusted for the impact of the Lunar New Year’s vacation time. And sales of commercial buildings, which have helped fuel China’s overheated economy in recent years, have fallen 3.7% since December.
• U.S. wholesale prices continued to give the Federal Reserve plenty of leeway to keep interest rates low. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the wholesale inflation rate fell by 0.1% in February, its lowest level since last November. Most of the 0.3% decrease in prices for wholesale services was attributed to a 9.3% drop in margins for sales of clothing, footwear, and accessories. Demand for wholesale goods actually rose 0.4% during the month, led by a 0.9% increase in pharmaceutical prices.
• Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac plunged after bipartisan leaders of the Senate Banking Committee announced plans to phase out the mortgage giants, which have been operating under government conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis. If adopted, the legislation would establish government-backed mortgage insurance administered by a new Federal Mortgage Insurance Corporation. Insurance payments would be triggered only after private lenders had suffered a loss of 10% or more on the loans involved. The measure also would require homeowners to put up at least a 5% down payment (3.5% for first-time buyers) to qualify for an FMIC loan, and would create a mechanism for standardizing mortgage-backed securities based on such loans.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Markets will assess Crimea’s vote Sunday to secede from Ukraine, which could mean economic sanctions against Russia that could affect oil prices and threaten Europe’s economic recovery. Wednesday’s announcement by the Fed’s monetary policy committee–its first guided by Janet Yellen–will be monitored for any shred of guidance on the timing of changes in the Fed’s target interest rate.

The Markets

Fab five: The S&P 500 marked the fifth anniversary of the stock market’s post-2008 low by recording another all-time record close. Once again, the Dow couldn’t quite manage to break even for the year, though it came close, while the small caps had the week’s strongest gains. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose as investors seemed to place more importance on better-than-expected domestic economic data than on potential fallout from the tension over Ukraine.

Last Week’s Headlines

• The unemployment rate edged upward to 6.7% and away from the 6.5% that would have led to increased speculation about the Federal Reserve possibly accelerating an increase in interest rates. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase–the first since December 2012–occurred despite the U.S. economy adding 175,000 jobs in February. The BLS noted that severe weather could have had an impact on its survey results.
• Spending rose faster than personal incomes in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income was 0.3% higher for the month, while consumption was up 0.4%.
• Construction spending was up 1% in January, primarily because of gains in the housing sector, but gains were much lower than December’s 2.2% increase. The Commerce Department said residential building was led by a 2.3% gain in construction of single-family homes, while nonresidential construction was down 0.2% and government construction fell 0.8% during the month.
• U.S. manufacturing rebounded a bit in February as the Institute for Supply Management®’s gauge rose by 1.9% to 53.2%. Meanwhile, the ISM’s services survey showed growth slowing by 2.4%, though the 51.6% reading still represented growth.
• The European Central Bank declined to adopt fresh stimulus measures to combat a less-than-desirable 0.8% inflation rate there. The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and the rate on overnight bank deposits at 0%. Meanwhile, economic recovery accelerated in both the 18-member eurozone and Europe as a whole; European GDP rose 0.3% during Q4 2013 and was up 0.4% in the eurozone.
• China announced a 2014 target growth rate of 7.5%–slightly lower than 2013’s 7.7%–and a target inflation rate of 3.5%. Also, China’s General Administration of Customs said exports fell 18.1% in February, leading to a nearly $23 billion trade deficit; the sharp decline in exports was surprising given January’s 10.6% increase.
• The frigid weather that socked in much of the nation in February made an accurate assessment of economic data more difficult, according to the Federal Reserve’s “beige book” report. However, the report expressed optimism that the economy will show improvement once the weather does. 

Eye on the Week Ahead

In a week that’s light on economic data, the Ukraine situation could assume greater importance in market psychology. Investors also may begin anticipating the following week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.