Tag: global perspective

Quarterly Market Review: April-June 2026

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The Markets (second quarter through June 30, 2026)

Wall Street enjoyed a solid quarter of growth during a period of time that was anything but stable. April, May, and June saw a de-escalation in a major conflict, a reaffirmation of the independence of the central bank from political pressure, strong corporate earnings, a resilient consumer, and a U.S. economy that continued to expand, despite several tumultuous developments. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ enjoyed their strongest quarters since 2020. The gains posted by the Dow put that index on track for its best first half in about five years and its biggest quarter since 2022. The quarter opened with investors still digesting tariff uncertainty and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which pushed energy prices higher and raised concerns about the efficacy of risk assets. There were concerns that equities were overvalued, while volatility increased as investors tried to price in the possibility of prolonged disruption to global trade and shipping routes. However, news of U.S.-Iran peace talks and a ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz helped defuse one of the quarter’s biggest concerns. The reopening of key shipping lanes and the prospect of more stable energy markets supported risk appetite, with stocks moving higher.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 CloseAs of June 30Monthly ChangeQuarterly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2952,319.202.52%12.90%8.85%
NASDAQ23,241.9926,213.72-2.81%21.41%12.79%
S&P 5006,845.507,499.36-1.06%14.87%9.55%
Russell 20002,481.913,024.373.60%21.15%21.86%
Global Dow6,169.346,823.89-1.09%9.60%10.61%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.41%-4 bps10 bps25 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.26101.152.24%1.29%2.94%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$70.05-20.28%-30.99%21.91%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,026.50-11.95%-14.34%-6.88%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Information technology and communication services were the sector leaders as investor enthusiasm for AI drove much of the market. Industrials, real estate, financials, and health care also made notable strides by the end of the second quarter.

The U.S. bond market spent much of the second quarter oscillating between rising and falling yields, influenced by resilient growth, stubborn inflation, and a cautious Federal Reserve. Treasury yields drifted higher in the second quarter as energy-linked inflation coupled with fading hopes for near-term fiscal easing ultimately pushed yields up but not without periods of decline. The 10-year Treasury yield spent most of the quarter swaying within a volatile 4.0%-4.5% range. The two-year note also ebbed and flowed for much of the quarter. However, the yield curve (the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield) shifted from a prolonged inversion into positive territory.

According to FactSet, following a blowout Q1 in which S&P 500 companies posted 28.6% earnings growth (the highest since 2021), corporate profits are expected to carry strong momentum into the second quarter. Since the start of Q2 earnings season in mid-July, analysts are projecting a year-over-year growth rate of 20.6%-21.3% for the S&P 500. Corporate America remains resilient despite market anxiety surrounding sticky inflation and a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September.

The second quarter of 2026 proved to be a difficult period for gold, which endured its worst quarterly performance in 13 years. After hitting an all-time high of $5,589.38 per ounce in late January, gold prices steadily declined. Gold began Q2 at about $4,700.00 per ounce, only to slide to under $4,030.00 per ounce by the end of June, marking the first negative quarterly performance in the last 11 quarters. Typically, the tensions in the Middle East would trigger a flight to safety, boosting gold. However, surging crude oil prices stoked fears of inflation and evaporated projected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which dampened interest in non-yielding gold and other precious metals.

To describe the second quarter as a roller-coaster ride for energy markets would be an understatement. Volatility in the Middle East sent crude oil prices surging to near four-year highs in April. However, a diplomatic compromise, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, led to a massive reduction in crude oil prices throughout June. April saw prices rise to a 46-month high of nearly $113.00 per barrel, more than double the price at the start of the year. Escalating crude oil prices impacted consumers at the pumps, where gasoline prices climbed to a national average of over $4.00 per gallon. In mid-May, peace talks slowed price increases, culminating in a ceasefire agreement in mid-June, which resulted in the rapid deflation of crude oil prices to about $70.00 per barrel by the end of the quarter. The retail price for regular gasoline was $3.914 per gallon on June 22, $0.561 below the price at the end of May but $0.701 more than the price a year ago. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% as of June 25. That’s up from 6.38% at the end of March but under the 6.77% rate from a year earlier.

Despite persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions, and geopolitical tensions, the U.S. economy showed surprising resilience. Gross domestic product held steady at an annualized rate of 2.1% during the quarter. While growth was modest, it exceeded fears of an economic contraction that prevailed throughout the end of the first quarter. The conflict in the Middle East, beginning in mid-March, had a ripple effect throughout the economy. Crude oil prices rapidly increased, inflationary pressures were felt for both products and services, and consumer spending retreated. Employment growth, which cooled in the first quarter, exceeded expectations in the second quarter, with job gains averaging 175,500 for April and May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3% for April and May.

Inflationary pressures, which had stabilized somewhat in the first quarter, made a supply-driven return in the second quarter. Driven by rising energy prices, the Consumer Price Index spiked to an estimated annualized average of 6.0% for the quarter, while core prices hovered around 3.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price index peaked near 3.8% during the second quarter. In response, the Federal Reserve, under new leadership, maintained the federal funds target rate range but is expected to hike rates during the remainder of the year in an attempt to rein in rising prices.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of June 30, 2026.

  • Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month in May as employment rose by 172,000 after increasing 179,000 (revised) in the previous month. The change in employment for March was revised up by 29,000 to 214,000, and the change for April was revised up by 64,000 to 179,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined was 93,000 higher than previously reported. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in May, unchanged from the previous month’s rate and from May 2025. The number of unemployed persons in May was 7.3 million, which was essentially unchanged from the previous month and from May 2025. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 2.0 million in May, rose 155,000 from the April rate and accounted for 27.5% of all unemployed persons. The total number of long-term unemployed in May was about 524,000 more than the estimate from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate, at 61.8% in May, was unchanged from the April rate and was 0.6 percentage point below the rate from a year earlier. The employment-population ratio in May, at 59.2%, increased 0.1 percentage point from April but was 0.5 percentage point below the May 2025 estimate. In May, average hourly earnings increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, to $37.53. Over the past 12 months ended in May, average hourly earnings rose by 3.4%, down 0.2 percentage point from the 12 months ended in April 2026 (3.6%). The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours last month.
  • There were 215,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 20, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,821,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, 0.1 percentage point below the rate a year earlier. A year ago, there were 236,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,960,000.
  • FOMC/interest rates: As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds target rate range unchanged at its current 3.50%-3.75%. Following its first meeting under new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, the Committee’s statement, which was much briefer than in the past, indicated that economic activity was moving at a solid pace and that inflation remained elevated.
  • GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion accelerated somewhat in the first quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 2.1%, according to the third and final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, GDP rose 0.5%. Compared to the fourth quarter, the increase in GDP in the first quarter reflected advances in government spending (-5.6% to +4.4%) and exports (-3.2% to +10.9%) and a deceleration in consumer spending (+1.9% to +0.5%) that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment (+2.3% to +7.9%). Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, is the primary driver of GDP. In the first quarter, spending on both goods and services each rose 0.5%.
  • May 2026 saw the federal budget register a deficit of $239 billion following April’s $215 billion surplus, which was driven by large individual tax deposits. A year earlier, the surplus was $316 billion. In May, receipts totaled $356 billion, while expenditures were $628 billion. Over the eight months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $1,246 billion, $118 billion less than the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same eight months, individual income taxes, at $1,913 billion, accounted for more than half of the total receipts of $3,656 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $4,902 billion, of which Social Security ($1,097 billion) was the largest outlay.
  • Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each rose 0.7% in May from April. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.7%. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.4% in May, the same increase as in April. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3% in May. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 4.1% (3.8% for the 12 months ended in April). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.4% from May 2025 (3.3% for the year ended in April).
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced 0.5% in May and 4.2% over the last 12 months, 0.4 percentage point higher than for the 12 months ended in April. Energy prices, which drove the overall surge in CPI, rose 3.9% in May and 23.5% over the last 12 months. Gasoline prices increased 7.8% in May and 40.5% since May 2025. Shelter prices increased 0.3% in May and 3.4% since May 2025. Food prices rose 0.2% in May and 2.7% over the last 12 months. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in May and 2.9% over the last 12 months.
  • The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index increased 1.1% in May, unchanged from the revised April estimate. Producer prices increased 6.5% over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month advance since the 12 months ended November 2022. In May, prices for goods rose 2.8% from the previous month, which accounted for nearly 80.0% of the overall increase. Gasoline prices rose 23.4% in May. Prices for services increased 0.3% in May. For the year, producer prices for goods rose 10.4%, while prices for services advanced 4.9%. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 0.4% in May and 4.9% over the year. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, producer prices moved up 0.8% in May and 5.1% since May 2025.
  • Housing: Existing home sales increased 3.2% in May and 3.2% from a year ago. Inventory of existing homes for sale in May, at a 4.5-month supply, was unchanged from the prior month’s estimate. The median sales price in May was $429,300, up from the April estimate of $417,500, and greater than the May 2025 price of $423,700. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 3.5% in May and 3.3% from May 2025. The median sales price for existing single-family homes in May was $434,300, up from the previous month’s price of $421,900, and higher than the May 2025 price of $428,800.
  • The most recent data shows sales of new single-family houses in May 2026 were 7.3% below the April rate and 6.8% under the May 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in May represented a supply of 10.3 months at the current sales rate, 10.8% above the April estimate and 6.2% over the May 2025 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2026 was $424,900. This was 2.0% above the April price and unchanged from the May 2025 price. The average sales price of new houses sold in May 2026 was $540,600. This was 7.8% above the April price and 5.0% higher than the April 2025 figure.
  • Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.1% in May after rising 0.9% in April. IP was 1.7% above its year-earlier level. Manufacturing output was unchanged from the prior month last month but 1.4% above the May 2025 estimate. In May, the index for mining rose 1.3% and was up 2.0% from last year, while the index for utilities decreased 0.4% in May but was 3.1% over the May 2025 estimate.
  • According to the latest report from the Census Bureau, new orders for durable goods decreased $15.6 billion, or 4.5%, in May following an 8.5% April advance. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6%. Transportation equipment led the May decrease, falling $18.5 billion, or 14.0%.
  • Imports and exports: U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in May, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for exports increased 1.3% in May. Over the 12 months ended in May, import prices rose 6.7%, the largest over-the-year advance since import prices rose 7.7% in August 2022. Export prices increased 11.2% since May 2025, the largest over-the-year increase since export prices rose 11.2% in August 2022.
  • The international trade in goods deficit was $105.8 billion in May, up $22.7 billion, or 27.4%, from April. Exports of goods for May were $207.7 billion, $11.8 billion, or 5.4%, less than April exports. Imports of goods for May were $313.4 billion, $10.9 billion, or 3.6%, more than April imports.
  • The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released June 9, 2026, was for April and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $55.9 billion, a decrease of $0.7 billion, or 1.2%, from the March deficit. April exports were $327.1 billion, $8.3 billion, or 2.6%, more than March exports. April imports were $383.0 billion, $7.6 billion, or 2.0%, above the March estimate. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $213.5 billion, or 49.1%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $128.2 billion, or 11.3%. Imports decreased $85.3 billion, or 5.5%.
  • International markets: June saw strong stock market performances in Europe and Asia, driven by easing energy costs and a continuing surge in AI shares. European equities had their strongest quarterly performance since the three months ended October 2020. Asian stock markets enjoyed their strongest quarter in 17 years. By the end of June, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.5% for the month and 9.9% for the second quarter; the United Kingdom’s FTSE ticked up 1.7% for the month and 3.7% for the second quarter; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 5.0% in June and 37.2% in the second quarter; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index ticked up 0.5% in June and 5.2% in the second quarter.
  • Consumer confidence: The Consumer Confidence Index inched up in June to 91.2 from 90.6 in May. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased by 3.0 points to 116.4. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose by 3.0 points to 74.4.

Eye on the Quarter Ahead

Economic uncertainty remains elevated heading into the third quarter. While the labor market has shown strength, inflation remains “sticky,” as geopolitical instability continues to be a key variable.

What I’m Watching This Week – 29 June 2026

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The Markets (as of market close June 26, 2026)

For just the second time in the last 13 weeks, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recorded weekly losses. AI stocks, which had driven the market for much of the year, experienced a notable drop, despite favorable earnings reports from some major microchip companies. Investors moved away from tech to more value-driven sectors, such as health care, real estate, and utilities. Consumer staples shares gained ground, helping to push small caps higher. The Dow held firm for much of the week. Crude oil prices fell to pre-Iran war levels as shipping traffic accelerated through the Strait of Hormuz.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 6/26Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2951,564.7051,876.110.60%7.93%
NASDAQ23,241.9926,517.9325,297.62-4.60%8.84%
S&P 5006,845.507,500.587,354.02-1.95%7.43%
Russell 20002,481.912,979.773,010.081.02%21.28%
Global Dow6,169.346,867.986,791.16-1.12%10.08%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.45%4.37%-8 bps21 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.26100.79101.310.52%3.10%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$75.54$69.55-7.93%21.04%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,236.00$4,086.80-3.52%-5.48%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, according to the third and final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross domestic product increased at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter, the first quarter saw a decrease in personal consumption expenditures from 1.9% to 0.5%; investment rose from 2.3% to 7.9%; exports increased from -3.2% to 10.9%; imports increased from -1.0% to 11.8%; and government spending increased from -5.6% to 4.4%.
  • According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income increased 0.7% in May. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, rose 0.7% last month. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation, increased 0.4% in May and advanced 4.1% over the last 12 months. Core prices, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% in May and 3.4% from May 2025.
  • Sales of new single-family homes declined 7.3% in May from April and were 6.8% below the May 2025 rate. Inventory rose to a 10.3-month supply, up from 9.3 months in April and above the 9.7-month estimate from a year earlier. The median sales price in May was $424,900. This was 2.0% above the April price of $416,500 and virtually unchanged from the May 2025 price of $424,800. The average sales price of new houses sold in May was $540,600. This was 7.8% above the April price of $501,400 and 5.0% higher than the May 2025 price of $514,800.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 4.5% in May after increasing 8.5% in April. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6%. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the overall decrease, falling 14.0%.
  • The advance report on international trade in goods showed the deficit was $105.8 billion in May, up $22.7 billion, or 27.4%, from April. Exports of goods for May were $207.7 billion, $11.8 billion, or 5.4%, less than April exports. Imports of goods for May were $313.4 billion, $10.9 billion, or 3.6%, more than April imports.
  • For the week ended June 20, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 13 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 13 was 1,821,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 6 were Puerto Rico (2.2%), New Jersey (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), California (1.8%), Minnesota (1.7%), Rhode Island (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Oregon (1.6%), Illinois (1.5%), and New York (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 13 were in Pennsylvania (+3,814), Minnesota (+1,587), Oregon (+1,536), Kentucky (+1,401), and Michigan (+791), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-2,164), Ohio (-2,163), South Carolina (-1,856), Puerto Rico (-1,673), and New York (-1,536).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.914 per gallon on June 22, $0.138 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.701 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of June 22, the East Coast price decreased $0.136 to $3.777 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.138 to $3.723 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.084 to $3.437 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.259 to $3.845 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.172 to $5.057 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The markets are closed this Friday in celebration of the Fourth of July holiday. However, the labor report for June is available on Thursday. May saw employment increase by 172,000.

What I’m Watching This Week – 22 June 2026

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The Markets (as of market close June 18, 2026)

Most markets were closed last Friday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. Wall Street rallied last week as investors displayed optimism over the signing of an initial agreement ending hostilities in the Middle East. Market gains were realized despite the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the first meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Inflationary pressures continued to influence market developments as the Fed projected the potential for at least one interest rate hike before the end of the year, while upwardly revising its inflation projection to 3.6% (from 2.7% previously forecasted). The interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran also led to a further decrease in crude oil prices, which fell to their lowest levels since early March.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 6/18Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2951,202.2651,564.700.71%7.28%
NASDAQ23,241.9925,888.8426,517.932.43%14.09%
S&P 5006,845.507,431.467,500.580.93%9.57%
Russell 20002,481.912,943.992,979.771.22%20.06%
Global Dow6,169.346,902.856,867.98-0.51%11.32%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.48%4.45%-3 bps29 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2699.78100.791.01%2.57%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$84.26$75.54-10.35%31.47%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,236.40$4,236.00-0.01%-2.03%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • In one of the briefest statements in quite some time, the Federal Open Market Committee, by a 12-0 vote, decided to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The Committee noted that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East. The FOMC also noted that job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Lastly, the Committee noted that inflation remained elevated, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.
  • Retail sales rose 0.9% in May from the previous month and 6.9% from a year ago. Retail trade sales were up 1.0% from April 2026 and 7.5% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales advanced 1.5% from April and 12.2% from last year, while sales at food services and drinking places ticked down 0.1% in May but rose 2.7% from May 2025.
  • Industrial production (IP) edged up 0.1% in May after rising 0.9% in April. Manufacturing output was unchanged in May after increasing 0.7% in April. In May, mining rose 1.3%, while utilities decreased 0.4%. Total IP in May was 1.7% above its year-earlier level.
  • The number of issued residential building permits in May was 0.7% below the April rate and 0.2% under the May 2025 estimate. Issued building permits for single-family homes in May were 0.6% above the April figure. In May, the number of housing starts was 15.4% below the April estimate and 8.7% under the figure from a year earlier. Single-family housing starts in May were 1.9% under the April rate. Home completions in May were 8.1% under the April rate and 14.2% below the May 2025 estimate. Single-family housing completions in May were 1.6% below the April rate.
  • U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in May following a 2.0% rise in April. Higher prices for fuel imports and nonfuel imports drove the advance in May. Prices for U.S. imports rose 6.7% from May 2025, the largest 12-month advance since prices rose 7.7% for the 12 months ended in August 2022. Prices for U.S. exports increased 1.3% in May after rising 3.5% the previous month. U.S. export prices increased 11.2% over the 12-month period ended in May, the largest 12-month advance since the prices rose 11.2% for the 12 months ended in August 2022.
  • For the week ended June 13, there were 226,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 6 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 6 was 1,810,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 30 were New Jersey (2.1%), Washington (2.0%), California (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Oregon (1.7%), Rhode Island (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Puerto Rico (1.6%), Illinois (1.4%), and Minnesota (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 6 were in Pennsylvania (+5,381), Minnesota (+5,373), California (+5,095), Texas (+2,835), and Puerto Rico (+2,677), while the largest decreases were in Tennessee (-1,077), Oklahoma (-456), Mississippi (-392), Kansas (-307), and Missouri (-267).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.052 per gallon on June 15, $0.094 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.913 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of June 15, the East Coast price decreased $0.077 to $3.913 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.084 to $3.861 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.122 to $3.521 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.090 to $4.104 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.129 to $5.229 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s plenty of important economic data released this week. The final estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product is out mid week. Thus far, the previous estimate has the economy expanding at an annual rate of 1.6%. Also of note this week is the release of the latest report on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. In April, consumer prices rose 0.4% for the month and 3.8% over the past 12 months.

What I’m Watching This Week – 15 June 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close June 12, 2026)

Wall Street began last week with a heavy sell-off as investors appeared anxious about the U.S.-Iran war, elevated inflation, and fears of a potential tech correction. However, stocks staged a massive turnaround midweek, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East and the largest initial public offering in U.S. financial history. Consumer staples and real estate led the market sectors, while information technology and communication services lagged. Crude oil prices reached an eight-week low as the potential for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz gained traction. Gold prices declined for a second straight week on improving risk appetite.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 6/12Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2950,866.7851,202.260.66%6.53%
NASDAQ23,241.9925,709.4325,888.840.70%11.39%
S&P 5006,845.507,383.747,431.460.65%8.56%
Russell 20002,481.912,833.502,943.993.90%18.62%
Global Dow6,169.346,807.046,902.851.41%11.89%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.53%4.48%-5 bps32 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.26100.0799.78-0.29%1.55%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$90.28$84.26-6.67%46.64%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,344.50$4,236.40-2.49%-2.02%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% over the last 12 months, marking its highest yearly level since April 2023. Energy prices, which rose 3.9%, accounted for over 60% of the overall May increase. Prices at the pump increased 7.0% in May and 40.5% over the last 12 months. Prices for shelter rose 0.3% in May, while food prices increased 0.2% over the month. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in May and 2.9% from a year earlier, which was the highest rate since September 2025.
  • The Producer Price Index rose 1.1% in May, the same increase as in April. Producer prices increased 6.5% for the 12 months ended in May, the largest 12-month rise since moving up 7.4% in November 2022. Nearly 80% of the May advance in overall prices was attributable to a 2.8% increase in prices for goods, which was the largest increase since December 2009, when data was first calculated. Energy prices rose 10.7% in May (of which gasoline prices rose 23.4%), accounting for 80% of the overall increase in prices for goods. Goods prices less foods and energy rose 0.8% last month. Prices for foods increased 0.6%. Prices for services moved up 0.3% in May.
  • The latest report on international trade in goods and services from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, released June 9, was for April and revealed the trade deficit was $55.9 billion, 1.2% less than the March estimate. April exports were $327.1 billion, 2.6% more than March exports. April imports were $383.0 billion, 2.0% more than March imports. Thus far in 2026, the goods and services deficit decreased $213.5 billion, or 49.1%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $128.2 billion, or 11.3%. Imports decreased $85.3 billion, or 5.5%.
  • Sales of existing homes in May increased by 3.2% for the month and 3.2% since May 2025. Inventory sat at a 4.5-month supply in May, unchanged from the previous month but down slightly from 4.6 months one year ago. The median sales price, at $429,300, was 2.8% above the April figure and 1.3% higher than the price in May 2025. Sales of existing single-family homes increased 3.5% from April and 3.3% from a year ago. The median sales price for existing single-family homes in May was $434,300, up 2.9% from April and 1.3% higher than the price from May 2025.
  • The government deficit for May was $293 billion. This followed April’s surplus of $215 billion. Through the first eight months of the fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,246 billion, slightly under the deficit of $1,364 billion over the same period in the prior fiscal year.
  • For the week ended June 6, there were 229,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 30 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 30 was 1,795,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 23 were New Jersey (2.1%), Washington (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), California (1.8%), Oregon (1.7%), Rhode Island (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Puerto Rico (1.6%), and Illinois (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 30 were in California (+3,532), Minnesota (+1,706), Tennessee (+1,671), Ohio (+1,342), and Illinois (+1,203), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-2,125), New Jersey (-901), Kansas (-726), Massachusetts (-669), and Florida (-607).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.146 per gallon on June 8, $0.159 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $1.038 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of June 8, the East Coast price decreased $0.145 to $3.990 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.190 to $3.945 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.161 to $3.643 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.135 to $4.194 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.142 to $5.358 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. With inflation at levels above the Fed’s 2.0% target and solid job gains, it is unlikely that the Committee will lower the federal funds target rate range at this time.

What I’m Watching This Week – 8 June 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close June 5, 2026)

For much of last week, stocks continued a rally that appeared headed for another week of gains. However, investors, who had been clinging to the prospect of monetary easing, had those hopes all but dashed after a better-than-expected jobs report (see below) doused any hopes of an interest rate reduction in the immediate future. Heading into last Friday, the S&P 500 looked to be on pace for a tenth consecutive week of gains, a feat not achieved since 1985. Instead, a massive selloff, particularly in the tech sector, dragged stocks lower, resulting in each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing last week in the red. While hiring accelerated, wage growth cooled slightly to 3.4% for the 12 months ended in May, down from 3.6% for the year ended in April and below the consumer annual inflation rate of 3.8%. The strong jobs data not only led to a plunge in stocks but prompted a move to bonds, resulting in long-term yields climbing higher. Among the market sectors, consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services fell the furthest, while financials, energy, and health care saw stocks move higher.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 6/5Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2951,032.4650,866.78-0.32%5.83%
NASDAQ23,241.9926,972.6225,709.43-4.68%10.62%
S&P 5006,845.507,580.067,383.74-2.59%7.86%
Russell 20002,481.912,919.342,833.50-2.94%14.17%
Global Dow6,169.346,899.166,807.04-1.34%10.34%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.45%4.53%8 bps37 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.93100.071.15%1.84%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$87.87$90.282.74%57.12%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,573.00$4,344.50-5.00%0.48%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Total employment exceeded expectations in May after increasing 172,000. This followed the upwardly revised April estimate of 179,000. The change in employment for March was revised up by 29,000, from +185,000 to +214,000, and the change for April was revised up by 64,000, from +115,000 to +179,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined was 93,000 higher than previously reported. Last month, the total number of employed increased by 149,000 to 162.8 million. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.8%, while the employment-population ratio ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 59.2%. The total number of unemployed in May was 7.3 million, little changed from the previous month’s total, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed over the month at 2.0 million but was up by 524,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.5% of all unemployed people in May. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.12, or 0.3%, to $37.53 in May. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in May.
  • According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings increased by 731,000 to 7.6 million in April. Job openings increased by 520,000 over the last 12 months. In April, the number of job openings increased in professional and business services (+668,000) but decreased in finance and insurance (-135,000). Conversely, the number of hires fell by 419,000 in April to 5.1 million. The number of separations decreased to 5.0 million (-399,000). Within separations, the number of layoffs and discharges declined by 192,000 to 1.7 million in April. The number of quits also decreased in April, falling 183,000 to 3.0 million.
  • Manufacturing conditions improved in May, according to the latest purchasing managers’ survey from S&P Global. New orders increased markedly last month, but growth in both output and sales was driven, in part, by inventory building as firms sought to protect themselves from potential supply chain disruptions and steeply rising prices principally caused by the war in the Middle East, which remained a notable headwind for the manufacturing sector.
  • Unlike manufacturing, business growth was slower in the services sector. May’s S&P Global PMI survey of services companies revealed a marginal expansion of business activity, largely attributable to rising prices, particularly for fuel and energy. Outlook sentiment softened to the lowest level since 2022, which survey respondents linked to uncertainty regarding inflation and the economy.
  • For the week ended May 30, there were 225,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 3,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 23 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 23 was 1,777,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 16 were New Jersey (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), California (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Oregon (1.7%), Rhode Island (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Puerto Rico (1.6%), and Illinois (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 23 were in Kansas (+1,292), Missouri (+1,246), Illinois (+1,026), Iowa (+874), and Minnesota (+455), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-1,322), California (-1,155), Kentucky (-960), Pennsylvania (-936), and Ohio (-902).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.305 per gallon on June 1, $0.170 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $1.178 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of June 1, the East Coast price decreased $0.169 to $4.135 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.217 to $4.135 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.185 to $3.804 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.228 to $4.329 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.069 to $5.500 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

May inflation data is available this week with the release of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. Most recent reports showed inflation has continued to increase.

Monthly Market Review – May 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 29, 2026)

The U.S. stock market continued its April momentum through May. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable monthly gains, with several indexes reaching historic highs. The May rally was largely dominated by the information technology sector, particularly AI shares. An exceptional Q1 corporate earnings performance helped support Wall Street’s May surge. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each set new records in May, and while the Dow lagged somewhat behind those benchmarks, it nonetheless rose well past the 50,000 threshold. However, while headlines throughout May focused on stocks at record highs, the broader economy showed signs of stagflation.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior MonthAs of 5/29Monthly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,652.1451,032.462.78%6.18%
NASDAQ23,241.9924,892.3126,972.628.36%16.05%
S&P 5006,845.507,209.017,580.065.15%10.73%
Russell 20002,481.912,799.912,919.344.27%17.62%
Global Dow6,169.346,664.366,899.163.52%11.83%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.39%4.45%8 bps23 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.0698.930.89%0.68%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$105.36$87.87-16.60%52.92%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,630.60$4,573.00-1.24%5.76%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Wall Street’s rally in May was driven by tech and AI stocks, which heavily dominated the market share of gains. Health care and consumer discretionary shares also helped drive the overall market, which also saw gains in communication services, industrials, and real estate. Utilities, energy, consumer staples, financials, and materials lagged.

While equities soared, the bond market exhibited anxiety over inflation and fiscal sustainability. The yield on 10-year Treasuries hovered around 4.30%-4.60% for most of the month, with yields reaching their highest levels since July 2025, evidencing a broad repricing on inflationary pressures, elevated energy prices, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership and policy direction. Yields on two-year notes hovered around 4.00% as markets soured on potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2026.

Price pressures accelerated in May. Both the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve) and the Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% since last April, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. Prices at the wholesale level increased by 6.0% over the past 12 months, their fastest pace of growth since 2022.

In addition to price pressures, the economy showed signs of slowing. First-quarter gross domestic product was revised downward to an annualized rate of 1.6% from an earlier estimate of 2.0%. While business and government spending provided some cushion, consumer spending decelerated from 1.9% to 1.4%. Slowing wage growth and higher fuel costs helped weaken consumer spending and disposable income, which fell to its lowest level since February 2025.

The labor market continued to show signs of moderate strengthening. Overall, the labor market presented a picture of stability, with signs of moderation, marked by steady unemployment and modest job gains. The Federal Reserve noted that the labor market remained stable but slower than in prior years.

Corporate earnings in Q1 showed very strong performance from S&P 500 companies, marking the fastest earnings growth since 2021, with gains spreading across several sectors. Earnings growth surged to 28.4% year over year according to FactSet, with 84% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings per share (EPS) estimates. All of the “Magnificent 7” companies beat EPS expectations, with their earnings exceeding estimates by 32.5%, roughly twice the S&P 500 average.

Crude oil prices experienced a sharp reversal in May, with prices falling over 16.5% as geopolitical uncertainty eased due to expectations of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and improving prospects for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The retail price of regular gasoline was $4.475 per gallon on May 25, $0.352 above the price a month earlier and $1.315 higher than the price a year ago. The dollar showed resilience in May, closing the month at about where it began, despite a myriad of domestic economic factors, including a slowing labor market and persistent inflationary pressures.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of April 30, 2026.

  • Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations in April, as employment rose by 115,000 after increasing 185,000 (revised) in the previous month. The change in employment for February was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from 178,000 to 185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March, combined, was 16,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in April, unchanged from the previous month’s rate but 0.1 percentage point above the April 2025 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in April, at 7.4 million, rose by 134,000 from the previous month and 218,000 more than the April 2025 figure. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.8 million in April, was essentially unchanged from the March rate and accounted for 25.3% of all unemployed persons. The total number of long-term unemployed in April was about 161,000 above the estimate from April 2025. The labor force participation rate inched down 0.1 percentage point to 61.8% in April and was 0.8 percentage point below the rate from a year earlier. The employment-population ratio in April, at 59.1%, decreased 0.1 percentage point from March and 0.9 percentage point from April 2025. In April, average hourly earnings increased by $0.06, or 0.2%, to $37.41. Over the past 12 months ended in April, average hourly earnings rose by 3.6%. The average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours last month.
  • There were 215,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 23, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,786,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, unchanged from the rate a year earlier. A year ago, there were 236,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,917,000.
  • FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not meet in May, thus the federal funds target rate range remained at its current 3.50%-3.75%. The Committee is scheduled to meet on June 17.
  • GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion accelerated somewhat in the first quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.6%, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, GDP rose 0.5%. Compared to the fourth quarter, the increase in GDP in the first quarter reflected advances in government spending (-5.6% to +4.4%) and exports (-3.2% to +13.1%) and a deceleration in consumer spending (+1.9% to +1.4%) that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment (+2.3% to +7.0%). Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, is the primary driver of GDP. In the first quarter, spending on goods rose 0.4%, while spending on services rose 1.8%.
  • April 2026 saw the federal budget register a surplus of $215 billion, driven by large individual tax deposits. A year earlier, the surplus was $258 billion. In April, receipts totaled $837 billion, while expenditures were $622 billion. Over the seven months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $954 billion, $95 billion less than the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same seven months, individual income taxes, at $1,761 billion, accounted for nearly half of the total receipts of $3,320 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $4,274 billion, of which Social Security ($957 billion) was the largest outlay.
  • Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income was unchanged in April from March, while disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) decreased 0.1% for the month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.4% in April after advancing 0.7% in March. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2% in April. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 3.8% (3.5% for the 12 months ended in March). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3% from April 2025 (3.2% for the year ended in March).
  • The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.6% in April and 3.8% over the last 12 months, 0.5 percentage point higher than for the 12 months ended in March. Energy prices rose 3.8% in April and 17.9% over the last 12 months. Gasoline prices increased 5.4% in April and 28.4% since April 2025. Shelter prices also increased 0.6% in April and 3.3% since April 2025. Food prices rose 0.5% in April and 3.2% over the last 12 months. Prices less food and energy rose 0.4% in April. Over the last 12 months, prices less food and energy increased 2.8%.
  • The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index increased 1.4% in April, twice as much as in March, and marked the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Producer prices increased 6.0% over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month advance since the 12 months ended December 2022. In April, prices for goods rose 2.0% from the previous month, while prices for services increased 1.2%. For the year, producer prices for goods rose 7.4%, while prices for services advanced 5.5%. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 1.0% in April and 5.2% over the year. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, producer prices moved up 0.6% in April and 4.4% since April 2025.
  • Housing: Existing home sales increased 0.2% in April but were unchanged from a year ago. Inventory of existing homes for sale in April, at a 4.4-month supply, ticked up from the prior month’s estimate of 4.2 months. The median sales price in April was $417,700, up 2.1% from the March estimate and 0.9% greater than the April 2025 price. Sales of existing single-family homes were flat in April (-0.3% over the last 12 months). The median sales price for existing single-family homes in April was $422,300, up from the previous month’s price of $413,300, and higher than the April 2025 price of $418,000.
  • The most recent data shows sales of new single-family houses in April 2026 were 6.2% below the March rate and 11.3% under the April 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in April represented a supply of 9.4 months at the current sales rate, 8.0% above the March estimate and 9.3% over the April 2025 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2026 was $422,500. This was 8.0% above the March price and 2.2% over the April 2025 price. The average sales price of new houses sold in April 2026 was $508,800. This was 0.7% above the March price but 1.1% under the April 2025 price.
  • Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7% in April after falling 0.3% in March. IP was 1.4% above its year-earlier level. Manufacturing output rose 0.6% last month and increased 1.3% over the last 12 months. In April, the index for mining fell 0.1% but rose 0.2% for the year, while the index for utilities increased 1.9% in April and 2.7% over the last 12 months.
  • According to the latest report from the Census Bureau, which was released May 28, new orders for durable goods increased $25.5 billion, or 7.9%, in April following a 1.3% March advance. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1%. Transportation equipment led the April increase, climbing $23.1 billion, or 21.5%.
  • Imports and exports: U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in April, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was released May 14. Prices for exports increased 3.3% in April. Over the 12 months ended in April, import prices rose 4.2%, the largest over-the-year advance since import prices rose 4.2% in October 2022. Export prices increased 8.8% since April 2025, the largest over-the-year increase since export prices rose 9.8% in September 2022.
  • The international trade in goods deficit was $82.4 billion in April, down 3.4%. Exports of goods for April rose 4.0% since the previous month, while imports of goods increased 1.9%. Over the 12 months ended in April, the trade in goods deficit declined 4.0%. Over that same period, exports increased 15.6%, while imports rose 9.6%.
  • The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released May 5, 2026, was for March and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $60.3 billion, an increase of $2.5 billion, or 4.4%, from the February deficit. March exports were $320.9 billion, $6.2 billion, or 2.0%, more than February exports. March imports were $381.2 billion, $8.7 billion, or 2.3%, above the February estimate. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $211.2 billion, or 55.0%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $100.2 billion, or 12.0%. Imports decreased $111.0 billion, or 9.1%.
  • International markets: The European stock market delivered strong gains im May, led by tech-driven momentum, AI earnings growth, and geopolitical optimism. Asian markets were much more diverse last month. While tech-heavy exporters rose to historic highs fueled by an AI surge, other markets, particularly in China, faced headwinds from shifting geopolitical events and energy market volatility. For May, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.4%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE ticked up 0.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index jumped 11.5%; while China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.1%.
  • Consumer confidence: The Consumer Confidence Index dipped 0.7 point in May to 93.1 from 93.8 in April. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased by 3.2 points to 121.2. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose by 1.0 point to 74.4.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Most of the attention in June will be focused on the employment and inflation data for May. The Federal Open Market Committee, with new Chair Kevin Warsh, meets in June for the first time since April.

What I’m Watching This Week – 1 June 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 29, 2026)

Wall Street ended the week with broad gains, record-setting index performances, and a notable shift toward broader market participation beyond tech and AI shares. The Dow, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Global Dow each finished the week higher. The S&P 500 extended an eight-week winning streak, while the Dow recorded new highs. Markets swung throughout last week as news alternated between progress and tension in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations. Reports of a potential ceasefire helped ease oil-supply fears, influencing sharp moves in oil prices and Treasury yields.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 5/29Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2950,579.7051,032.460.90%6.18%
NASDAQ23,241.9926,343.9726,972.622.39%16.05%
S&P 5006,845.507,473.477,580.061.43%10.73%
Russell 20002,481.912,869.232,919.341.75%17.62%
Global Dow6,169.346,874.826,899.160.35%11.83%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.55%4.45%-10 bps23 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2699.3098.93-0.37%0.68%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$96.19$87.87-8.65%52.92%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,510.30$4,573.001.39%5.76%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • According to the second estimate, gross domestic product accelerated at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP increased 0.5%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending and the primary driver of GDP, rose 1.4% in the first quarter, a decrease from the 1.9% rise in the fourth quarter.
  • Personal income was virtually flat in April after advancing 0.5% in March. Disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) decreased 0.1%. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. The PCE price index, a measure of inflation, rose 0.4% in April after increasing 0.7% in March. Core prices (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% in April. Since April 2025, the PCE price index rose 3.8%, which was the largest 12-month gain since the index rose 4.0% for the year ended May 2023. Core prices advanced 3.3% since April 2025.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion, or 7.9%, to $346.0 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1%. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the overall increase, rising 21.5%.
  • The international trade in goods deficit was $82.4 billion in April, down $2.9 billion, or 3.4%, from March. Exports of goods for April were $219.7 billion, $8.5 billion, or 4.0%, more than March exports. Imports of goods for April were $302.1 billion, $5.6 billion, or 1.9%, more than March imports.
  • Sales of new single-family houses in April 2026 were 6.2% below the March 2026 rate and 11.3% under the April 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in April represented a supply of 9.4 months at the current sales rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in April was $422,500, which was 8.0% above the March price of $391,100 and 2.2% higher than the April 2025 price of $413,600. The average sales price of new houses sold in April was $508,800. This was 0.7% above the March price of $505,200 but 1.1% below the April 2025 price of $514,300.
  • For the week ended May 23, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 16 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 16 was 1,786,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 9 were New Jersey (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Rhode Island (1.8%), Oregon (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Puerto Rico (1.6%), and Illinois (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 16 were in Ohio (+941), Missouri (+641), Pennsylvania (+433), Massachusetts (+323), and Connecticut (+245), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,940), California (-1,398), Michigan (-660), Georgia (-611), and Kentucky (-594).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.475 per gallon on May 25, $0.015 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $1.315 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of May 25, the East Coast price decreased $0.001 to $4.304 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.047 to $4.352 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.038 to $3.989 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.030 to $4.557 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.036 to $5.569 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The jobs report for May is out this week. While job growth slowed during the first quarter of the year, it has picked up somewhat over the past few months.

What I’m Watching This Week – 18 May 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 15, 2026)

Two hotter-than-expected inflation reports and a lack of progress in negotiations to end the war in Iran created havoc in some corners of the financial markets last week. Oil prices surged again while the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, disrupting the world’s supply of essential crude. The S&P 500 reached record highs on Thursday before tumbling on Friday, but still managed to eke out its seventh straight week of gains. Energy was the top-performing market sector last week, followed by consumer staples, while consumer cyclicals and real estate were the laggards. The small caps of the Russell 2000 snapped their multi-week winning streak. Friday’s global bond market sell-off propelled the yield on long bonds (30-year Treasuries) to its highest level since June of 2007 (5.16%). Yields above 5.0% have been somewhat of a danger zone for borrowing costs in the past. The benchmark 10-year Treasury ended the week at its highest level in more than a year.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 5/15Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,609.1649,526.17-0.17%3.04%
NASDAQ23,241.9926,247.0826,225.14-0.08%12.84%
S&P 5006,845.507,398.937,408.500.13%8.22%
Russell 20002,481.912,861.212,793.30-2.37%12.55%
Global Dow6,169.346,781.496,725.35-0.83%9.01%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.36%4.59%23 bps43 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2697.8699.311.48%1.07%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$94.84$101.246.75%76.19%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,726.60$4,538.30-3.98%4.96%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April after rising 0.9% in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices have increased 3.8%. Prices excluding food and energy increased 0.4% in April and were up 2.8% over the past 12 months. In April, prices for energy rose 3.8%, accounting for over 40.0% of the overall monthly increase. Shelter prices also increased in April, rising 0.6%. Prices for food rose 0.5% last month.
  • Prices at the wholesale level accelerated at the fastest pace since March 2022 after rising 1.4% in April, double the increase from the prior month. Since April 2025, the Producer Price Index has advanced 6.0%, the highest rate since December 2022. In April, prices less food and energy (core prices) rose 1.0%, up from a 0.2% increase in March. Core prices have risen 5.2% since April 2025. Energy price growth, which climbed 10.1% in March, slowed to 7.8% in April. Food prices, which had contracted 0.6% in March, increased 0.2% in April. Nearly 60% of the April increase in producer prices was attributed to a 1.2% advance in prices for services. Prices for goods moved up 2.0%.
  • Retail sales advanced 0.5% in April and rose 4.9% over the last 12 months. Retail trade sales were up 0.5% from March 2026 and increased 5.2% from a year ago. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 11.1% from last year, while food services and drinking places sales advanced 2.7% from April 2025.
  • U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in April following a 0.9% rise in March. Prices for U.S. imports increased 4.2% from April 2025. The 12-month rise in U.S. import prices was the largest one-year advance since the year ended October 2022, when prices increased 4.2%. Import prices for fuels and lubricants increased 16.3% in April, which was the largest monthly advance since March 2022, when prices rose 17.8%. Import prices excluding fuel increased 0.8% in April. Prices for U.S. exports advanced 3.3% in April after rising 1.5% the previous month. Export prices rose 8.8% over the 12-month period ended April 2026, which was the largest 12-month rise in export prices since the year ended September 2022, when export prices rose 9.8%.
  • Industrial production increased 0.7% in April after decreasing 0.3% in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6%, mining ticked down 0.1%, and utilities moved up 1.9%. Total industrial production in April was 1.4% above its year-earlier level.
  • The federal government had a surplus of $215 billion in April, which saw large individual tax deposits resulting in budget receipts of $837 billion. April expenditures totaled $622 billion. Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $954 billion. Over the same period last fiscal year, the deficit was $1,049 billion.
  • Sales of existing homes rose 0.2% in April and were unchanged from April 2025. Inventory of existing homes for sale in April represented a supply of 4.4 months, up from 4.2 months in March and slightly ahead of the 4.3-month supply from one year ago. The median existing-home price, at $417,700, increased 2.1% from the March figure ($409,100) and was up 0.9% from one year ago ($414,000). There was no change in the sales of existing single-family homes in April. However, sales were down 0.3% from a year ago. The median sales price for existing single-family homes was $422,300, 2.1% higher than the March estimate ($413,300) and 1.0% above the April 2025 price of $418,000.
  • For the week ended May 9, there were 211,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 2 was 1.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate, which was revised down by 0.1 percentage point. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 2 was 1,782,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 25 were Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), Oregon (1.8%), New York (1.7%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), Minnesota (1.5%), and Puerto Rico (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 2 were in California (+2,144), Michigan (+1,696), Texas (+682), New Hampshire (+546), and New Jersey (+438), while the largest decreases were in Rhode Island (-1,831), New York (-776), Connecticut (-643), Arizona (-602), and Vermont (-404).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.500 per gallon on May 11, $0.048 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $1.380 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of May 11, the East Coast price increased $0.085 to $4.336 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.006 to $4.405 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.051 to $3.953 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.013 to $4.372 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.030 to $5.613 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The primary economic release of note this week focuses on housing starts and permits.

What I’m Watching This Week – 11 May 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 8, 2026)

The U.S. stock market ended last week with strong gains, which led to record highs for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The surge in stock values was largely driven by a better-than-expected jobs report (see below), falling crude oil prices, and robust tech company earnings. Investors continued to favor risk, despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Information technology led the market sectors, while energy and utilities underperformed. Crude oil prices declined as President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran would remain in effect despite fresh clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces. Bond yields changed little last week as uncertainty persisted over how quickly the U.S. and Iran might reach an agreement to end the conflict.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 5/8Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,499.2749,609.160.22%3.22%
NASDAQ23,241.9925,114.4426,247.084.51%12.93%
S&P 5006,845.507,230.127,398.932.33%8.08%
Russell 20002,481.912,812.822,861.211.72%15.28%
Global Dow6,169.346,665.456,781.491.74%9.92%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.37%4.36%-1 bps20 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.2297.86-0.37%-0.41%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$102.60$94.84-7.56%65.05%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,622.40$4,726.602.25%9.31%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Employment exceeded expectations in April after edging up 115,000. The total number of employed ticked down by 226,000 to 162.6 million last month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Both the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 59.1% and 61.8%, respectively. The number of unemployed rose by 134,000 to 7.4 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million and accounted for 25.3% of all unemployed people. In April, average hourly earnings rose by $0.06, or 0.2%, to $37.41. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%. The average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in April.
  • The number of job openings, at 6.9 million, was essentially unchanged in March from the previous month, according to the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. The number of hires increased 655,000 to 5.6 million in March, while the number of total separations rose 356,000 to 5.4 million.
  • According to the latest report from the Census Bureau, sales of new single-family homes rose 7.4% in March and were 3.3% above the March 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale, at 8.5 months, fell 6.6% in March from the previous month. The median sales price of new houses sold in March was $387,400. This was 5.3% below the February price of $409,000 and was 6.2% less than the March 2025 price of $412,900. The average sales price of new houses sold in March was $503,100. This was 3.4% below the February price of $521,000 and was 1.2% under the March 2025 price of $509,200.
  • The goods and services trade deficit was $60.3 billion in March, 4.4% above the February estimate but 55.6% less than the deficit from a year ago. In March, exports increased 2.0% and imports rose 2.3%. Year to date, exports increased 12.0%, while imports fell 9.1%.
  • Business activity in the services sector ticked up marginally in April, according to the latest report from The S&P Global. US Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered 51.0 last month, up slightly from the March reading of 49.8. According to survey respondents, new work orders declined for the first time since April 2024 amid the negative impact of the war in the Middle East and higher inflationary pressures. Higher prices for goods and services, most notably fuel and gas, plus increased labor-related costs continued to drive typical operating expenses up, which contributed to another steep rise in selling prices.
  • For the week ended May 2, there were 200,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 25 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 25 was 1,766,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 18 were New Jersey (2.3%), Washington (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.1%), California (2.0%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Oregon (1.8%), Minnesota (1.7%), New York (1.7%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), and Puerto Rico (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 25 were in Rhode Island (+2,037), Arkansas (+1,137), Vermont (+348), Massachusetts (+341), and Mississippi (+269), while the largest decreases were in New York (-10,952), California (-4,677), Connecticut (-2,276), South Carolina (-1,906), and Kentucky (-1,416).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.452 per gallon on May 4, $0.329 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $1.305 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of May 4, the East Coast price increased $0.293 to $4.251 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.515 to $4.399 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.227 to $3.902 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.343 to $4.359 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.171 to $5.583 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Much of the economic data released this week is focused on inflation. The Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, both for April, are out this week. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March as price pressures seem to be trending higher.

What I’m Watching This Week – 4 May 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 1, 2026)

Wall Street continued to rally with equities ending last week on a strong note. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at record highs, driven by robust corporate earnings, a potential end to the U.S. military involvement in Iran, and easing crude oil prices. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains as stocks maintained momentum following their strongest monthly performance in years. Last week capped a solid week of corporate earnings. With over two-fifths of the S&P 500 companies reporting, 83% beat earnings expectations and 78% exceeded revenue forecasts. Market sectors were led by communication services, energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary. Materials, industrials, and health care lagged.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 5/1Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,230.7149,499.270.55%2.99%
NASDAQ23,241.9924,836.6025,114.441.12%8.06%
S&P 5006,845.507,165.087,230.120.91%5.62%
Russell 20002,481.912,787.002,812.820.93%13.33%
Global Dow6,169.346,583.926,665.451.24%8.04%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.31%4.37%6 bps21 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.5298.22-0.30%-0.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$95.43$102.607.51%78.56%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,721.60$4,622.40-2.10%6.90%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. In reaching its decision, the Committee noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Further, the developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. Finally, the Committee indicated that it would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2.0% objective.
  • There was improvement in U.S. manufacturing in April, according to the latest S&P Global report. However, the acceleration in manufacturing is likely driven by companies trying to stockpile product in anticipation of price increases and supply shortages. Despite the rise in production, employment has fallen as higher costs influenced hiring decisions. Nevertheless, the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 54.5 in April, up from 52.3 in March, marking the strongest expansion in the manufacturing sector since May 2022.
  • Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, the acceleration in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 reflected upturns in government spending (4.4%) and exports (12.9%), and an acceleration in investment (8.7%) that were partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending (1.6%). Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, were up (21.4%).
  • Both personal income and disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) increased 0.6% in March, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.9% last month. From the preceding month, the PCE price index for March increased 0.7%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index rose 3.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2% from one year ago.
  • The international trade in goods deficit for March was $87.9 billion, up $4.4 billion, or 5.3%, from the February estimate. Exports of goods were $5.2 billion, or 2.5%, above the February figure. Imports of goods were $9.6 billion, or 3.3%, more than February imports.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.6 billion, or 0.8%, according to the Census Bureau. This followed a 1.2% February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Computers and electronic products, up 11 of the last 12 months, led the increase, climbing $1.0 billion, or 3.7%.
  • In March, the number of issued residential building permits fell 10.8% from February and 7.4% from March 2025. Last month, single-family permits fell 3.8%. The number of housing starts in March was 10.8% above the revised February estimate and 10.8% above the March 2025 rate. Single-family housing starts in March were 9.7% above the revised February figure. The number of housing completions in March was 0.1% above the revised February estimate but 12.8% below the March 2025 rate. Single-family housing completions in March were 4.8% below the revised February estimate.
  • For the week ended April 25, there were 189,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 18 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 18 was 1,785,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 13,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 11 were New Jersey (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), California (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.1%), New York (2.0%), Minnesota (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Oregon (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), and Puerto Rico (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 18 were in New York (+2,885), California (+1,590), Tennessee (+1,562), Kentucky (+1,179), and South Carolina (+1,115), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,280), Pennsylvania (-2,742), Virginia (-1,528), Wisconsin (-1,248), and Indiana (-1,150).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.123 per gallon on April 27, $0.079 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.990 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 27, the East Coast price increased $0.070 to $3.958 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.095 to $3.884 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.058 to $3.675 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.080 to $4.016 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.092 to $5.412 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The labor report for April is available this week. Employment had been waning over the past several months prior to March, when job growth exceeded expectations.