Monthly Market Review – May 2026

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The Markets (as of market close May 29, 2026)

The U.S. stock market continued its April momentum through May. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable monthly gains, with several indexes reaching historic highs. The May rally was largely dominated by the information technology sector, particularly AI shares. An exceptional Q1 corporate earnings performance helped support Wall Street’s May surge. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each set new records in May, and while the Dow lagged somewhat behind those benchmarks, it nonetheless rose well past the 50,000 threshold. However, while headlines throughout May focused on stocks at record highs, the broader economy showed signs of stagflation.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior MonthAs of 5/29Monthly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,652.1451,032.462.78%6.18%
NASDAQ23,241.9924,892.3126,972.628.36%16.05%
S&P 5006,845.507,209.017,580.065.15%10.73%
Russell 20002,481.912,799.912,919.344.27%17.62%
Global Dow6,169.346,664.366,899.163.52%11.83%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.39%4.45%8 bps23 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.0698.930.89%0.68%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$105.36$87.87-16.60%52.92%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,630.60$4,573.00-1.24%5.76%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Wall Street’s rally in May was driven by tech and AI stocks, which heavily dominated the market share of gains. Health care and consumer discretionary shares also helped drive the overall market, which also saw gains in communication services, industrials, and real estate. Utilities, energy, consumer staples, financials, and materials lagged.

While equities soared, the bond market exhibited anxiety over inflation and fiscal sustainability. The yield on 10-year Treasuries hovered around 4.30%-4.60% for most of the month, with yields reaching their highest levels since July 2025, evidencing a broad repricing on inflationary pressures, elevated energy prices, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership and policy direction. Yields on two-year notes hovered around 4.00% as markets soured on potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2026.

Price pressures accelerated in May. Both the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve) and the Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% since last April, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. Prices at the wholesale level increased by 6.0% over the past 12 months, their fastest pace of growth since 2022.

In addition to price pressures, the economy showed signs of slowing. First-quarter gross domestic product was revised downward to an annualized rate of 1.6% from an earlier estimate of 2.0%. While business and government spending provided some cushion, consumer spending decelerated from 1.9% to 1.4%. Slowing wage growth and higher fuel costs helped weaken consumer spending and disposable income, which fell to its lowest level since February 2025.

The labor market continued to show signs of moderate strengthening. Overall, the labor market presented a picture of stability, with signs of moderation, marked by steady unemployment and modest job gains. The Federal Reserve noted that the labor market remained stable but slower than in prior years.

Corporate earnings in Q1 showed very strong performance from S&P 500 companies, marking the fastest earnings growth since 2021, with gains spreading across several sectors. Earnings growth surged to 28.4% year over year according to FactSet, with 84% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings per share (EPS) estimates. All of the “Magnificent 7” companies beat EPS expectations, with their earnings exceeding estimates by 32.5%, roughly twice the S&P 500 average.

Crude oil prices experienced a sharp reversal in May, with prices falling over 16.5% as geopolitical uncertainty eased due to expectations of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and improving prospects for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The retail price of regular gasoline was $4.475 per gallon on May 25, $0.352 above the price a month earlier and $1.315 higher than the price a year ago. The dollar showed resilience in May, closing the month at about where it began, despite a myriad of domestic economic factors, including a slowing labor market and persistent inflationary pressures.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of April 30, 2026.

  • Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations in April, as employment rose by 115,000 after increasing 185,000 (revised) in the previous month. The change in employment for February was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from 178,000 to 185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March, combined, was 16,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in April, unchanged from the previous month’s rate but 0.1 percentage point above the April 2025 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in April, at 7.4 million, rose by 134,000 from the previous month and 218,000 more than the April 2025 figure. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.8 million in April, was essentially unchanged from the March rate and accounted for 25.3% of all unemployed persons. The total number of long-term unemployed in April was about 161,000 above the estimate from April 2025. The labor force participation rate inched down 0.1 percentage point to 61.8% in April and was 0.8 percentage point below the rate from a year earlier. The employment-population ratio in April, at 59.1%, decreased 0.1 percentage point from March and 0.9 percentage point from April 2025. In April, average hourly earnings increased by $0.06, or 0.2%, to $37.41. Over the past 12 months ended in April, average hourly earnings rose by 3.6%. The average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours last month.
  • There were 215,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 23, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,786,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, unchanged from the rate a year earlier. A year ago, there were 236,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,917,000.
  • FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not meet in May, thus the federal funds target rate range remained at its current 3.50%-3.75%. The Committee is scheduled to meet on June 17.
  • GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion accelerated somewhat in the first quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.6%, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, GDP rose 0.5%. Compared to the fourth quarter, the increase in GDP in the first quarter reflected advances in government spending (-5.6% to +4.4%) and exports (-3.2% to +13.1%) and a deceleration in consumer spending (+1.9% to +1.4%) that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment (+2.3% to +7.0%). Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, is the primary driver of GDP. In the first quarter, spending on goods rose 0.4%, while spending on services rose 1.8%.
  • April 2026 saw the federal budget register a surplus of $215 billion, driven by large individual tax deposits. A year earlier, the surplus was $258 billion. In April, receipts totaled $837 billion, while expenditures were $622 billion. Over the seven months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $954 billion, $95 billion less than the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same seven months, individual income taxes, at $1,761 billion, accounted for nearly half of the total receipts of $3,320 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $4,274 billion, of which Social Security ($957 billion) was the largest outlay.
  • Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income was unchanged in April from March, while disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) decreased 0.1% for the month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.4% in April after advancing 0.7% in March. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2% in April. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 3.8% (3.5% for the 12 months ended in March). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3% from April 2025 (3.2% for the year ended in March).
  • The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.6% in April and 3.8% over the last 12 months, 0.5 percentage point higher than for the 12 months ended in March. Energy prices rose 3.8% in April and 17.9% over the last 12 months. Gasoline prices increased 5.4% in April and 28.4% since April 2025. Shelter prices also increased 0.6% in April and 3.3% since April 2025. Food prices rose 0.5% in April and 3.2% over the last 12 months. Prices less food and energy rose 0.4% in April. Over the last 12 months, prices less food and energy increased 2.8%.
  • The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index increased 1.4% in April, twice as much as in March, and marked the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Producer prices increased 6.0% over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month advance since the 12 months ended December 2022. In April, prices for goods rose 2.0% from the previous month, while prices for services increased 1.2%. For the year, producer prices for goods rose 7.4%, while prices for services advanced 5.5%. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 1.0% in April and 5.2% over the year. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, producer prices moved up 0.6% in April and 4.4% since April 2025.
  • Housing: Existing home sales increased 0.2% in April but were unchanged from a year ago. Inventory of existing homes for sale in April, at a 4.4-month supply, ticked up from the prior month’s estimate of 4.2 months. The median sales price in April was $417,700, up 2.1% from the March estimate and 0.9% greater than the April 2025 price. Sales of existing single-family homes were flat in April (-0.3% over the last 12 months). The median sales price for existing single-family homes in April was $422,300, up from the previous month’s price of $413,300, and higher than the April 2025 price of $418,000.
  • The most recent data shows sales of new single-family houses in April 2026 were 6.2% below the March rate and 11.3% under the April 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in April represented a supply of 9.4 months at the current sales rate, 8.0% above the March estimate and 9.3% over the April 2025 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2026 was $422,500. This was 8.0% above the March price and 2.2% over the April 2025 price. The average sales price of new houses sold in April 2026 was $508,800. This was 0.7% above the March price but 1.1% under the April 2025 price.
  • Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7% in April after falling 0.3% in March. IP was 1.4% above its year-earlier level. Manufacturing output rose 0.6% last month and increased 1.3% over the last 12 months. In April, the index for mining fell 0.1% but rose 0.2% for the year, while the index for utilities increased 1.9% in April and 2.7% over the last 12 months.
  • According to the latest report from the Census Bureau, which was released May 28, new orders for durable goods increased $25.5 billion, or 7.9%, in April following a 1.3% March advance. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1%. Transportation equipment led the April increase, climbing $23.1 billion, or 21.5%.
  • Imports and exports: U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in April, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was released May 14. Prices for exports increased 3.3% in April. Over the 12 months ended in April, import prices rose 4.2%, the largest over-the-year advance since import prices rose 4.2% in October 2022. Export prices increased 8.8% since April 2025, the largest over-the-year increase since export prices rose 9.8% in September 2022.
  • The international trade in goods deficit was $82.4 billion in April, down 3.4%. Exports of goods for April rose 4.0% since the previous month, while imports of goods increased 1.9%. Over the 12 months ended in April, the trade in goods deficit declined 4.0%. Over that same period, exports increased 15.6%, while imports rose 9.6%.
  • The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released May 5, 2026, was for March and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $60.3 billion, an increase of $2.5 billion, or 4.4%, from the February deficit. March exports were $320.9 billion, $6.2 billion, or 2.0%, more than February exports. March imports were $381.2 billion, $8.7 billion, or 2.3%, above the February estimate. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $211.2 billion, or 55.0%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $100.2 billion, or 12.0%. Imports decreased $111.0 billion, or 9.1%.
  • International markets: The European stock market delivered strong gains im May, led by tech-driven momentum, AI earnings growth, and geopolitical optimism. Asian markets were much more diverse last month. While tech-heavy exporters rose to historic highs fueled by an AI surge, other markets, particularly in China, faced headwinds from shifting geopolitical events and energy market volatility. For May, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.4%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE ticked up 0.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index jumped 11.5%; while China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.1%.
  • Consumer confidence: The Consumer Confidence Index dipped 0.7 point in May to 93.1 from 93.8 in April. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased by 3.2 points to 121.2. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose by 1.0 point to 74.4.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Most of the attention in June will be focused on the employment and inflation data for May. The Federal Open Market Committee, with new Chair Kevin Warsh, meets in June for the first time since April.

What I’m Watching This Week – 1 June 2026

Published on by dredheadzLeave a comment

The Markets (as of market close May 29, 2026)

Wall Street ended the week with broad gains, record-setting index performances, and a notable shift toward broader market participation beyond tech and AI shares. The Dow, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Global Dow each finished the week higher. The S&P 500 extended an eight-week winning streak, while the Dow recorded new highs. Markets swung throughout last week as news alternated between progress and tension in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations. Reports of a potential ceasefire helped ease oil-supply fears, influencing sharp moves in oil prices and Treasury yields.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 5/29Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2950,579.7051,032.460.90%6.18%
NASDAQ23,241.9926,343.9726,972.622.39%16.05%
S&P 5006,845.507,473.477,580.061.43%10.73%
Russell 20002,481.912,869.232,919.341.75%17.62%
Global Dow6,169.346,874.826,899.160.35%11.83%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.55%4.45%-10 bps23 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2699.3098.93-0.37%0.68%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$96.19$87.87-8.65%52.92%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,510.30$4,573.001.39%5.76%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • According to the second estimate, gross domestic product accelerated at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP increased 0.5%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending and the primary driver of GDP, rose 1.4% in the first quarter, a decrease from the 1.9% rise in the fourth quarter.
  • Personal income was virtually flat in April after advancing 0.5% in March. Disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) decreased 0.1%. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. The PCE price index, a measure of inflation, rose 0.4% in April after increasing 0.7% in March. Core prices (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% in April. Since April 2025, the PCE price index rose 3.8%, which was the largest 12-month gain since the index rose 4.0% for the year ended May 2023. Core prices advanced 3.3% since April 2025.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion, or 7.9%, to $346.0 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1%. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the overall increase, rising 21.5%.
  • The international trade in goods deficit was $82.4 billion in April, down $2.9 billion, or 3.4%, from March. Exports of goods for April were $219.7 billion, $8.5 billion, or 4.0%, more than March exports. Imports of goods for April were $302.1 billion, $5.6 billion, or 1.9%, more than March imports.
  • Sales of new single-family houses in April 2026 were 6.2% below the March 2026 rate and 11.3% under the April 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in April represented a supply of 9.4 months at the current sales rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in April was $422,500, which was 8.0% above the March price of $391,100 and 2.2% higher than the April 2025 price of $413,600. The average sales price of new houses sold in April was $508,800. This was 0.7% above the March price of $505,200 but 1.1% below the April 2025 price of $514,300.
  • For the week ended May 23, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 16 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 16 was 1,786,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 9 were New Jersey (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Rhode Island (1.8%), Oregon (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Puerto Rico (1.6%), and Illinois (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 16 were in Ohio (+941), Missouri (+641), Pennsylvania (+433), Massachusetts (+323), and Connecticut (+245), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,940), California (-1,398), Michigan (-660), Georgia (-611), and Kentucky (-594).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.475 per gallon on May 25, $0.015 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $1.315 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of May 25, the East Coast price decreased $0.001 to $4.304 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.047 to $4.352 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.038 to $3.989 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.030 to $4.557 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.036 to $5.569 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The jobs report for May is out this week. While job growth slowed during the first quarter of the year, it has picked up somewhat over the past few months.

What I’m Watching This Week – 18 May 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 15, 2026)

Two hotter-than-expected inflation reports and a lack of progress in negotiations to end the war in Iran created havoc in some corners of the financial markets last week. Oil prices surged again while the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, disrupting the world’s supply of essential crude. The S&P 500 reached record highs on Thursday before tumbling on Friday, but still managed to eke out its seventh straight week of gains. Energy was the top-performing market sector last week, followed by consumer staples, while consumer cyclicals and real estate were the laggards. The small caps of the Russell 2000 snapped their multi-week winning streak. Friday’s global bond market sell-off propelled the yield on long bonds (30-year Treasuries) to its highest level since June of 2007 (5.16%). Yields above 5.0% have been somewhat of a danger zone for borrowing costs in the past. The benchmark 10-year Treasury ended the week at its highest level in more than a year.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 5/15Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,609.1649,526.17-0.17%3.04%
NASDAQ23,241.9926,247.0826,225.14-0.08%12.84%
S&P 5006,845.507,398.937,408.500.13%8.22%
Russell 20002,481.912,861.212,793.30-2.37%12.55%
Global Dow6,169.346,781.496,725.35-0.83%9.01%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.36%4.59%23 bps43 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2697.8699.311.48%1.07%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$94.84$101.246.75%76.19%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,726.60$4,538.30-3.98%4.96%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April after rising 0.9% in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices have increased 3.8%. Prices excluding food and energy increased 0.4% in April and were up 2.8% over the past 12 months. In April, prices for energy rose 3.8%, accounting for over 40.0% of the overall monthly increase. Shelter prices also increased in April, rising 0.6%. Prices for food rose 0.5% last month.
  • Prices at the wholesale level accelerated at the fastest pace since March 2022 after rising 1.4% in April, double the increase from the prior month. Since April 2025, the Producer Price Index has advanced 6.0%, the highest rate since December 2022. In April, prices less food and energy (core prices) rose 1.0%, up from a 0.2% increase in March. Core prices have risen 5.2% since April 2025. Energy price growth, which climbed 10.1% in March, slowed to 7.8% in April. Food prices, which had contracted 0.6% in March, increased 0.2% in April. Nearly 60% of the April increase in producer prices was attributed to a 1.2% advance in prices for services. Prices for goods moved up 2.0%.
  • Retail sales advanced 0.5% in April and rose 4.9% over the last 12 months. Retail trade sales were up 0.5% from March 2026 and increased 5.2% from a year ago. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 11.1% from last year, while food services and drinking places sales advanced 2.7% from April 2025.
  • U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in April following a 0.9% rise in March. Prices for U.S. imports increased 4.2% from April 2025. The 12-month rise in U.S. import prices was the largest one-year advance since the year ended October 2022, when prices increased 4.2%. Import prices for fuels and lubricants increased 16.3% in April, which was the largest monthly advance since March 2022, when prices rose 17.8%. Import prices excluding fuel increased 0.8% in April. Prices for U.S. exports advanced 3.3% in April after rising 1.5% the previous month. Export prices rose 8.8% over the 12-month period ended April 2026, which was the largest 12-month rise in export prices since the year ended September 2022, when export prices rose 9.8%.
  • Industrial production increased 0.7% in April after decreasing 0.3% in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6%, mining ticked down 0.1%, and utilities moved up 1.9%. Total industrial production in April was 1.4% above its year-earlier level.
  • The federal government had a surplus of $215 billion in April, which saw large individual tax deposits resulting in budget receipts of $837 billion. April expenditures totaled $622 billion. Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $954 billion. Over the same period last fiscal year, the deficit was $1,049 billion.
  • Sales of existing homes rose 0.2% in April and were unchanged from April 2025. Inventory of existing homes for sale in April represented a supply of 4.4 months, up from 4.2 months in March and slightly ahead of the 4.3-month supply from one year ago. The median existing-home price, at $417,700, increased 2.1% from the March figure ($409,100) and was up 0.9% from one year ago ($414,000). There was no change in the sales of existing single-family homes in April. However, sales were down 0.3% from a year ago. The median sales price for existing single-family homes was $422,300, 2.1% higher than the March estimate ($413,300) and 1.0% above the April 2025 price of $418,000.
  • For the week ended May 9, there were 211,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 2 was 1.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate, which was revised down by 0.1 percentage point. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 2 was 1,782,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 25 were Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), Oregon (1.8%), New York (1.7%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), Minnesota (1.5%), and Puerto Rico (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 2 were in California (+2,144), Michigan (+1,696), Texas (+682), New Hampshire (+546), and New Jersey (+438), while the largest decreases were in Rhode Island (-1,831), New York (-776), Connecticut (-643), Arizona (-602), and Vermont (-404).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.500 per gallon on May 11, $0.048 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $1.380 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of May 11, the East Coast price increased $0.085 to $4.336 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.006 to $4.405 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.051 to $3.953 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.013 to $4.372 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.030 to $5.613 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The primary economic release of note this week focuses on housing starts and permits.

What I’m Watching This Week – 11 May 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 8, 2026)

The U.S. stock market ended last week with strong gains, which led to record highs for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The surge in stock values was largely driven by a better-than-expected jobs report (see below), falling crude oil prices, and robust tech company earnings. Investors continued to favor risk, despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Information technology led the market sectors, while energy and utilities underperformed. Crude oil prices declined as President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran would remain in effect despite fresh clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces. Bond yields changed little last week as uncertainty persisted over how quickly the U.S. and Iran might reach an agreement to end the conflict.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 5/8Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,499.2749,609.160.22%3.22%
NASDAQ23,241.9925,114.4426,247.084.51%12.93%
S&P 5006,845.507,230.127,398.932.33%8.08%
Russell 20002,481.912,812.822,861.211.72%15.28%
Global Dow6,169.346,665.456,781.491.74%9.92%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.37%4.36%-1 bps20 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.2297.86-0.37%-0.41%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$102.60$94.84-7.56%65.05%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,622.40$4,726.602.25%9.31%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Employment exceeded expectations in April after edging up 115,000. The total number of employed ticked down by 226,000 to 162.6 million last month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Both the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 59.1% and 61.8%, respectively. The number of unemployed rose by 134,000 to 7.4 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million and accounted for 25.3% of all unemployed people. In April, average hourly earnings rose by $0.06, or 0.2%, to $37.41. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%. The average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in April.
  • The number of job openings, at 6.9 million, was essentially unchanged in March from the previous month, according to the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. The number of hires increased 655,000 to 5.6 million in March, while the number of total separations rose 356,000 to 5.4 million.
  • According to the latest report from the Census Bureau, sales of new single-family homes rose 7.4% in March and were 3.3% above the March 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale, at 8.5 months, fell 6.6% in March from the previous month. The median sales price of new houses sold in March was $387,400. This was 5.3% below the February price of $409,000 and was 6.2% less than the March 2025 price of $412,900. The average sales price of new houses sold in March was $503,100. This was 3.4% below the February price of $521,000 and was 1.2% under the March 2025 price of $509,200.
  • The goods and services trade deficit was $60.3 billion in March, 4.4% above the February estimate but 55.6% less than the deficit from a year ago. In March, exports increased 2.0% and imports rose 2.3%. Year to date, exports increased 12.0%, while imports fell 9.1%.
  • Business activity in the services sector ticked up marginally in April, according to the latest report from The S&P Global. US Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered 51.0 last month, up slightly from the March reading of 49.8. According to survey respondents, new work orders declined for the first time since April 2024 amid the negative impact of the war in the Middle East and higher inflationary pressures. Higher prices for goods and services, most notably fuel and gas, plus increased labor-related costs continued to drive typical operating expenses up, which contributed to another steep rise in selling prices.
  • For the week ended May 2, there were 200,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 25 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 25 was 1,766,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 18 were New Jersey (2.3%), Washington (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.1%), California (2.0%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Oregon (1.8%), Minnesota (1.7%), New York (1.7%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), and Puerto Rico (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 25 were in Rhode Island (+2,037), Arkansas (+1,137), Vermont (+348), Massachusetts (+341), and Mississippi (+269), while the largest decreases were in New York (-10,952), California (-4,677), Connecticut (-2,276), South Carolina (-1,906), and Kentucky (-1,416).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.452 per gallon on May 4, $0.329 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $1.305 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of May 4, the East Coast price increased $0.293 to $4.251 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.515 to $4.399 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.227 to $3.902 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.343 to $4.359 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.171 to $5.583 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Much of the economic data released this week is focused on inflation. The Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, both for April, are out this week. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March as price pressures seem to be trending higher.

What I’m Watching This Week – 4 May 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 1, 2026)

Wall Street continued to rally with equities ending last week on a strong note. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at record highs, driven by robust corporate earnings, a potential end to the U.S. military involvement in Iran, and easing crude oil prices. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains as stocks maintained momentum following their strongest monthly performance in years. Last week capped a solid week of corporate earnings. With over two-fifths of the S&P 500 companies reporting, 83% beat earnings expectations and 78% exceeded revenue forecasts. Market sectors were led by communication services, energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary. Materials, industrials, and health care lagged.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 5/1Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,230.7149,499.270.55%2.99%
NASDAQ23,241.9924,836.6025,114.441.12%8.06%
S&P 5006,845.507,165.087,230.120.91%5.62%
Russell 20002,481.912,787.002,812.820.93%13.33%
Global Dow6,169.346,583.926,665.451.24%8.04%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.31%4.37%6 bps21 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.5298.22-0.30%-0.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$95.43$102.607.51%78.56%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,721.60$4,622.40-2.10%6.90%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. In reaching its decision, the Committee noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Further, the developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. Finally, the Committee indicated that it would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2.0% objective.
  • There was improvement in U.S. manufacturing in April, according to the latest S&P Global report. However, the acceleration in manufacturing is likely driven by companies trying to stockpile product in anticipation of price increases and supply shortages. Despite the rise in production, employment has fallen as higher costs influenced hiring decisions. Nevertheless, the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 54.5 in April, up from 52.3 in March, marking the strongest expansion in the manufacturing sector since May 2022.
  • Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, the acceleration in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 reflected upturns in government spending (4.4%) and exports (12.9%), and an acceleration in investment (8.7%) that were partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending (1.6%). Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, were up (21.4%).
  • Both personal income and disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) increased 0.6% in March, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.9% last month. From the preceding month, the PCE price index for March increased 0.7%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index rose 3.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2% from one year ago.
  • The international trade in goods deficit for March was $87.9 billion, up $4.4 billion, or 5.3%, from the February estimate. Exports of goods were $5.2 billion, or 2.5%, above the February figure. Imports of goods were $9.6 billion, or 3.3%, more than February imports.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.6 billion, or 0.8%, according to the Census Bureau. This followed a 1.2% February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Computers and electronic products, up 11 of the last 12 months, led the increase, climbing $1.0 billion, or 3.7%.
  • In March, the number of issued residential building permits fell 10.8% from February and 7.4% from March 2025. Last month, single-family permits fell 3.8%. The number of housing starts in March was 10.8% above the revised February estimate and 10.8% above the March 2025 rate. Single-family housing starts in March were 9.7% above the revised February figure. The number of housing completions in March was 0.1% above the revised February estimate but 12.8% below the March 2025 rate. Single-family housing completions in March were 4.8% below the revised February estimate.
  • For the week ended April 25, there were 189,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 18 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 18 was 1,785,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 13,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 11 were New Jersey (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), California (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.1%), New York (2.0%), Minnesota (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Oregon (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), and Puerto Rico (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 18 were in New York (+2,885), California (+1,590), Tennessee (+1,562), Kentucky (+1,179), and South Carolina (+1,115), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,280), Pennsylvania (-2,742), Virginia (-1,528), Wisconsin (-1,248), and Indiana (-1,150).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.123 per gallon on April 27, $0.079 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.990 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 27, the East Coast price increased $0.070 to $3.958 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.095 to $3.884 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.058 to $3.675 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.080 to $4.016 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.092 to $5.412 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The labor report for April is available this week. Employment had been waning over the past several months prior to March, when job growth exceeded expectations.

Monthly Market Review – April 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close April 30, 2026)

The U.S. stock market transitioned from a dour March, marked by deep-seated geopolitical anxiety, to a wave of record-breaking highs in April. U.S. stocks enjoyed their strongest month since the post-pandemic era, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each reaching record highs, despite ongoing strife in the Middle East and rising inflation. After closing March at slightly above 6,500, the S&P 500 surged in April, crossing the 7,000 mark for the first time in its history. The NASDAQ also reached record levels, propelled by a 13-day winning streak, its longest in more than a decade. The Dow and the small caps of the Russell 2000 also posted notable monthly gains.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior MonthAs of 4/30Monthly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2946,341.5149,652.147.14%3.31%
NASDAQ23,241.9921,590.6324,892.3115.29%7.10%
S&P 5006,845.506,528.527,209.0110.42%5.31%
Russell 20002,481.912,496.372,799.9112.16%12.81%
Global Dow6,169.346,225.906,664.367.04%8.02%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.31%4.39%8 bps23 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2699.8698.06-1.80%-0.20%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$101.51$105.363.79%83.36%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,700.30$4,630.60-1.48%7.09%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Whereas March was haunted by the risk of a full-scale war in Iran, the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and a surge in crude oil prices, April brought ceasefire negotiations and a temporary reopening of the Strait, which prompted oil prices to plummet before rising again. April’s rally was also fueled by a powerful start to corporate earnings season, particularly from large tech and AI companies. Ten of the 11 market sectors ended April with gains, led by information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary, each of which enjoyed double-digit gains. The only laggard was energy, which declined nearly 7.0%.

Price pressures accelerated in April, largely attributable to escalating oil prices. The personal consumption expenditures price index (the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve) and the Consumer Price Index each showed 12-month inflation growth of over 3.0%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. The re-acceleration of inflation in April followed tariff-driven goods inflation from earlier in the year. Some economists noted that prices rose faster than incomes.

The labor market continued to show signs of moderate strengthening. Job growth, which had slowed considerably, rose in March. Private-sector employers added an average of about 55,000 new jobs per week in the four weeks leading up to early April, marking the fastest pace of hiring since September 2025. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% in March but was above the rate from a year earlier.

The Federal Reserve elected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, generally maintaining a neutral, “wait-and-see” approach, citing the need to see evidence that inflation is trending lower before considering a decrease in interest rates.

Corporate earnings season have displayed notable resilience, with the S&P 500 tracking toward its sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. According to FactSet, with about 28% of companies having reported, the earnings growth rate sits at 15.1%, outpacing the initial estimates set at the end of March. AI and technology companies have dominated earnings thus far. In addition, the net profit margin for the S&P 500 reached 13.4% this quarter, which, according to FactSet, is the highest rate since tracking began in 2009.

U.S. Treasuries saw an end to the long-running inversion that began in 2022. Longer yields are rising faster than short-term yields. The ten-year Treasury yield floated between 4.30% to 4.39%, while the yield on two-year Treasuries stayed consistently between 3.78%-3.80%. Geopolitical crude oil shock and sticky inflation, along with inaction by the Federal Reserve, has led to a repricing of Treasuries.

Crude oil prices also experienced volatility in April, largely impacted by escalating geopolitical risks and an historic diplomatic exit from OPEC+. Crude oil prices began the month at around $100 per barrel, surging past $112 per barrel, then falling to $83 per barrel before ending the month at about $105 per barrel. The primary driver of the crude oil volatility was the conflict in the Middle East in general, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in particular. The retail price of regular gasoline was $4.123 per gallon on April 27, $0.162 above the price a month earlier and $0.990 higher than the price a year ago. The dollar showed resilience in April, closing the month on a bullish note despite a myriad of domestic economic factors, including a slowing labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. Gold prices vacillated throughout the month, influenced by escalating geopolitical risks and a hawkish response by the Federal Reserve.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of April 30, 2026.

  • Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations in March, as employment rose by 178,000 after declining 133,000 in the previous month. The change in employment for January was revised up by 34,000, from +126,000 to +160,000, and the change for February was revised down by 41,000, from -92,000 to -133,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February, combined, was 7,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in March, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month’s rate but 0.1 percentage point above the March 2025 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in March, at 7.2 million, fell by 332,000 from the previous month and was essentially unchanged from the March 2025 figure. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.8 million in March, was 78,000 below the February rate and accounted for 25.4% of all unemployed persons. The total number of long-term unemployed in March was about 300,000 above the estimate from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate inched down 0.1 percentage point to 61.9% in March and was 0.6 percentage point below the rate from a year earlier. The employment-population ratio in March, at 59.2%, decreased 0.1 percentage point from February and 0.7 percentage point from March 2025. In March, average hourly earnings increased by $0.09, or 0.2%, to $37.38. Over the past 12 months ended in March, average hourly earnings rose by 3.5%. The average workweek edged down 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours last month.
  • There were 189,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 25, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,785,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, 0.1 percentage point less than the rate a year earlier. A year ago, there were 239,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,906,000.
  • FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not change the federal funds target rate range in April, leaving it at its current 3.50%-3.75%. The Committee is scheduled to meet on June 17.
  • GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion accelerated somewhat in the first quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 2.0%, according to the initial estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, GDP rose 0.5%. Compared to the fourth quarter, the increase in GDP in the first quarter reflected advances in government spending (-5.6% to +4.4%) and exports (-3.2% to +12.9%) and a deceleration in consumer spending (+1.9% to +1.6%) that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment (+2.3% to +8.7%). Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, is the primary driver of GDP. In the first quarter, spending on goods fell 0.1%, while spending on services rose 2.4%.
  • March 2026 saw the federal budget deficit come in at $164 billion, roughly $143 billion lower than the deficit from the previous month and $350,000 above the estimate from a year earlier. In March, receipts totaled $385 billion, while expenditures were $549 billion. Over the five months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $1,169 billion, $138 billion less than the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same five months, individual income taxes, at $1,245 billion, accounted for about half of the total receipts of $2,483 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $3,651 billion, of which Social Security ($818 billion) was the largest outlay.
  • Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) each increased 0.6% in March. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.9%. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.7% in March from the preceding month. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3% in March. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 3.5% (2.8% for the 12 months ended in February). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2% from March 2025 (3.0% for the year ended in February).
  • The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.9% in March and 3.3% over the last 12 months, 0.9 percentage point higher than for the 12 months ended in February. Energy prices rose 10.9% in March, led by a 21.2% increase in prices for gasoline, which accounted for nearly three-quarters of the overall monthly increase. Shelter prices also increased in March, rising 0.3%. Food prices were unchanged over the month. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in March. Over the last 12 months, prices less food and energy increased 2.6%, prices for shelter rose 3.0%, energy prices advanced 12.5%, and food prices increased 2.7%.
  • The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in March after rising 0.5% in February. Producer prices increased 4.0% over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 4.7% for the 12 months ended February 2023. In March, prices for goods rose 1.6% from the previous month, while prices for services were unchanged. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 0.2% in March. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, producer prices moved up 0.2%. For the last 12 months, prices less foods and energy rose 3.8%, while prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.6%.
  • Housing: Existing home sales decreased 3.6% in March and 1.0% over the last 12 months. Inventory of existing homes for sale in March, at a 4.1-month supply, ticked up from the prior month’s estimate of 3.8 months. The median sales price in March was $408,800, higher than the February price of $398,000 and above the March 2025 estimate of $403,100. Sales of existing single-family homes decreased 3.5% in March (-0.3% over the last 12 months). The median sales price for existing single-family homes in March was $412,400, up from the previous month’s price of $402,300, and higher than the March 2025 price of $407,300.
  • The latest report on new home sales from the Census Bureau was released on March 19 and was for January 2026. The next release is scheduled for May 5. The most recent data shows sales of new single-family houses in January 2026 were 17.6% below the December rate and 11.3% under the January 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in January represented a supply of 9.7 months at the current sales rate, 21.3% above the December estimate and 7.8% over the January 2025 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was $400,500. This was 4.5% under the December 2025 price of $419,200 and 6.8% below the January 2025 price of $429,600. The average sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was $499,500. This was 5.9% lower than the December 2025 price of $530,900 and was 3.6% under the January 2025 price of $518,200.
  • Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.5% in March but grew 0.7% from March 2025. Manufacturing output dipped 0.1% last month but increased 0.5% over the last 12 months. In March, the index for mining fell 1.2% (-0.2% for the year), while the index for utilities declined 2.3% (+3.1% for the year).
  • New orders for durable goods increased $2.6 billion, or 0.8%, in March after declining the previous three months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Computers and electronic products, up 11 of the last 12 months, led the increase, rising $1.0 billion, or 3.7%.
  • Imports and exports: U.S. import prices increased 0.8% in March, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for exports increased 1.6% in March. Over the 12 months ended in March, import prices rose 2.1%, the largest over-the-year advance since import prices rose 2.2% in December 2024. Export prices increased 5.6% since March 2025, the largest over-the-year increase since export prices rose 6.1% in November 2022.
  • The international trade in goods deficit was $87.9 billion in March, up 5.3%. Exports of goods for March rose 2.5% since the previous month, while imports of goods increased 3.3%. Over the 12 months ended in March, the trade in goods deficit declined 45.6%. Over that same period, exports increased 16.0%, while imports fell 12.9%.
  • The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released April 2, 2026, was for February and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $57.3 billion, an increase of $2.7 billion, or 4.9%, from the January deficit. February exports were $314.8 billion, $12.6 billion, or 4.2% more than January exports. February imports were $372.1 billion, $15.2 billion, or 4.3%, above the January estimate. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $136.1 billion, or 54.8%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $62.6 billion, or 11.3%. Imports decreased $73.5 billion, or 9.2%.
  • International markets: The European stock market began April with significant momentum. However, the rally cooled during the latter half of the month, influenced by rising inflation and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While several of the major indexes managed to close the month ahead, the economy was impacted by surging energy prices and a “wait-and-see” approach from central banks. Asian markets also experienced a volatile month as a tech-driven rally was offset by rising energy costs triggered by the Middle East conflict. For April, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 1.9%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE fell 0.7%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index jumped 10.3%; while China’s Shanghai Composite Index gained 4.9%.
  • Consumer confidence: The Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.6 point in April to 92.8 from 92.2 in March. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased by 0.3 point to 123.8. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose by 1.2 points to 72.2.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Most of the attention in May will be focused on the employment figures and inflation data for April. The Federal Open Market Committee does not meet in May.

What I’m Watching This Week – 27 April 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close April 24, 2026)

Stocks continued to rally for the most part last week, fueled by cautious investor optimism that U.S. involvement in the Middle East may be nearing an end. In addition, cooler inflation data (see below) along with the start of what is hoped to be a resilient earnings season also contributed to the rally. A resurgence in mega-cap tech shares helped push the NASDAQ to a 10-day winning streak, its longest in several years. The S&P 500 finished just shy of its January record high. The Dow and the Global Dow each ticked lower, while the small caps of the Russell 2000 edged higher. Information technology, energy, and consumer staples led the market sectors, while health care and financials lagged. Gold and silver prices slipped as oil prices and the dollar gained strength.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 4/24Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2949,447.4349,230.71-0.44%2.43%
NASDAQ23,241.9924,468.4824,836.601.50%6.86%
S&P 5006,845.507,126.067,165.080.55%4.67%
Russell 20002,481.912,776.902,787.000.36%12.29%
Global Dow6,169.346,640.716,583.92-0.86%6.72%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.24%4.31%7 bps15 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.1898.520.35%0.26%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$83.12$95.4314.81%66.08%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,872.10$4,721.60-3.09%9.20%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Retail sales rose 1.7% in March from the previous month. Since March 2025, retail sales increased 4.0%. Retail trade sales were up 1.9% from February 2026 and 4.2% from last year. Nonstore (online) retail sales were up 10.1% from last year, while sales at food services and drinking places rose 2.4% from March 2025.

  • For the week ended April 18, there were 214,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 11 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 11 was 1,821,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 4 were New Jersey (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Washington (2.2%), Minnesota (2.1%), California (2.0%), New York (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Michigan (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), and Puerto Rico (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 11 were in New York (+8,145), Connecticut (+1,747), Georgia (+1,288), Virginia (+1,227), and Texas (+1,074), while the largest decreases were in Oregon (-3,773), Illinois (-2,112), Maryland (-910), New Jersey (-864), and Ohio (-492).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.044 per gallon on April 20, $0.079 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.903 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 20, the East Coast price decreased $0.066 to $3.888 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.097 to $3.789 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.124 to $3.617 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.041 to $3.936 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.057 to $5.320 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The first estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2026 is available this week. GDP advanced a mere 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The report on Personal Income and Outlays is also out this week. Within that report is the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. According to the last report, inflation rose 0.4% in February and 2.8% for the year.

What I’m Watching This Week – 20 April 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close April 17, 2026)

Stocks surged last week with the easing of geopolitical tensions that had weighed on equities for weeks. The S&P 500 crossed the 7,000 point barrier, while the NASDAQ achieved its longest winning streak (12 straight sessions) since 1992. Investor optimism was fueled by the ceasefire announced last week and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Large-cap stocks enjoyed a strong performance. Along with the S&P 500 reaching a record high last week, the Dow jumped more than 800 points on Friday alone. Demand for AI and tech shares was also reignited following a period of investor trepidation. Among the market sectors, information technology climbed nearly 8.5%, followed by consumer discretionary and communication services. Utilities, energy, and consumer staples lagged. Crude oil prices fell nearly $13.00 per barrel, or more than 13.0%, by the end of last week, hitting a five-week low. Gold and silver prices remained stable but saw some profit taking as investors rotated back to equities.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 4/17Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2947,916.5749,447.433.19%2.88%
NASDAQ23,241.9922,902.8924,468.486.84%5.28%
S&P 5006,845.506,816.897,126.064.54%4.10%
Russell 20002,481.912,630.442,776.905.57%11.89%
Global Dow6,169.346,506.806,640.712.06%7.64%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.31%4.24%-7 bps8 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.6798.18-0.50%-0.08%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$96.17$83.12-13.57%44.66%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,779.60$4,872.101.94%12.68%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Prices at the producer level rose 0.5% in March following increases of 0.5% and 0.6% in February and January, respectively. Producer prices rose 4.0% for the 12 months ended in March, the largest 12-month advance since February 2023. A 1.6% increase in prices for goods accounted for the overall gain in producer prices in March. Prices for services were unchanged last month. Nearly half of the March advance in prices for goods was attributable to a 15.7% rise in gasoline prices. Producer prices less food and energy rose 0.1% last month and 3.8% for the year.
  • Import prices rose 0.8% in March after rising 0.9% in February. Prices for imports advanced 2.1% from March 2025 to March 2026, which was the largest 12-month increase since the year ended December 2024. Prices for exports rose 1.6% in March after increasing 1.9% the previous month.
  • Industrial production (IP) dropped 0.5% in March but grew 0.7% over the last 12 months. Manufacturing output ticked down 0.1% in March yet increased 0.5% since March 2025. Mining and utilities moved down 1.2% and 2.3%, respectively, last month. Over the last 12 months, mining inched down 0.2%, while utilities rose 3.1%.
  • Existing home sales decreased by 3.6% in March 2026 and 1.0% since March 2025. The median existing home price rose to $408,800 in March, 2.7% above the February price of $398,000 and 1.4% over the March 2025 price. Inventory sat at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace. Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.5% last month and 0.3% from March 2025. The median existing single-family home price in March was $412,400, 1.3% above the March 2025 price of $407,300.
  • For the week ended April 11, there were 207,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 4 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 4 was 1,818,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 28 were Massachusetts (2.5%), New Jersey (2.5%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Washington (2.3%), Minnesota (2.2%), California (2.1%), Oregon (2.1%), Illinois (1.9%), New York (1.9%), Michigan (1.8%), Connecticut (1.7%), and Nevada (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 4 were in New Jersey (+5,603), Pennsylvania (+2,513), Oregon (+2,182), California (+2,130), and Illinois (+1,652), while the largest decreases were in New York (-1,592), Texas (-1,299), Tennessee (-838), Hawaii (-422), and Louisiana (-315).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.123 per gallon on April 13, $0.003 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.955 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 13, the East Coast price decreased $0.046 to $3.954 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.115 to $3.886 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.046 to $3.741 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.002 to $3.895 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.019 to $5.377 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s very little in the way of economic data released this week. The most noteworthy report available is the retail sales report for March. Retail sales jumped 0.6% in February and may be in line for a reduction in sales in March.

What I’m Watching This Week- 13 April 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close April 10, 2026)

The U.S. stock market enjoyed a second straight rally last week as geopolitical tensions shifted, at least temporarily, from escalation to diplomacy. After a period of high volatility and risk aversion, investors were encouraged by the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the week with gains, while 10 of the 11 market sectors climbed, with the exception of energy. Information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary outperformed. Crude oil prices, which touched $112 per barrel earlier in the week, fell sharply following the aforementioned ceasefire. Economic data released last week was mixed. The third estimate of gross domestic product was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate (see below). The monthly government deficit widened and inflationary pressures remained sticky, although consumer spending ticked up. Treasury yields ended the week about where they started, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries rising at the end of last week.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 4/10Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2946,504.6747,916.573.04%-0.31%
NASDAQ23,241.9921,879.1822,902.894.68%-1.46%
S&P 5006,845.506,582.696,816.893.56%-0.42%
Russell 20002,481.912,530.042,630.443.97%5.98%
Global Dow6,169.346,305.776,506.803.19%5.47%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.31%4.31%0 bps15 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.26100.0198.67-1.34%0.42%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$111.72$96.17-13.92%67.37%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,693.40$4,779.601.84%10.54%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The third and final estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 revealed that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.5%. In the third quarter of 2025, GDP increased 4.4%. Compared to the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending and the largest contributor to GDP, fell from 3.5% to 1.9%. Spending decreased for both goods and services. Gross domestic investment increased from no change in the third quarter to an increase of 2.3% in the fourth quarter. Nonresidential (business) investment rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter, outpacing residential investment, which fell 1.7%. Exports declined from 9.6% in the third quarter to -3.2% in the fourth quarter. Imports fell 1.0% in the fourth quarter after falling 4.4% in the previous quarter. Government spending declined 5.6% in the fourth quarter after rising 2.2% in the third quarter.
  • According to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, originally scheduled for release on March 27, both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income fell 0.1% in February. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% in February. From January, the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4% in February. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.4%. For the 12 months ended in February, the PCE price index increased 2.8%, while prices less food and energy rose 3.0%.
  • The Consumer Price Index for March jumped 0.9% following a 0.3% increase in February. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% last month, the same increase as in February. For the 12 months ended in March, consumer prices rose 3.3%, well above the 2.4% advance for the 12 months ended in February. Prices less food and energy rose 2.6% since March 2025. Energy prices, which rose 10.9% in March (including a 21.2% increase in gasoline prices), accounted for much of the monthly increase in overall prices. Shelter prices increased 0.3% in March, while prices for food were unchanged over the month. Prices for energy increased 12.5% for the 12 months ended March. Food prices increased 2.7% over the last year.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.4% in February, according to the latest data released by the Census Bureau. This followed a 0.5% January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2%. Transportation equipment, down four of the last five months, drove the overall decrease, falling 5.4% in February.
  • The Federal budget saw a deficit of $164 billion in March. Receipts totaled $385 billion, while outlays were $549 billion. Through the first six months of the fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,169 billion. The deficit was $1,307 billion over the comparable period last fiscal year. So far in this fiscal year, receipts totaled $2,483 billion, while outlays were $3,651 billion.
  • For the week ended April 4, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 28 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 28 was 1,794,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since May 11, 2024, when it was 1,791,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 21 were Rhode Island (2.7%), Massachusetts (2.6%), New Jersey (2.6%), Minnesota (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), California (2.1%), Illinois (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Michigan (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), Montana (1.8%), and Puerto Rico (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 28 were in Texas (+1,952), New York (+1,236), Oregon (+1,091), Wisconsin (+804), and Illinois (+721), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,751), Georgia (-1,059), Iowa (-1,057), Pennsylvania (-598), and Massachusetts (-459).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.120 per gallon on April 6, $0.130 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.877 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 6, the East Coast price increased $0.186 to $4.000 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.062 to $3.771 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.197 to $3.787 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.024 to $3.893 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.062 to $5.396 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week brings with it the release of multiple reports across several economic sectors. The report on existing home sales for March is available this week. February saw sales increase by 1.7%. The latest data on producer prices is also out this week. For the 12 months ended in February, producer prices have risen 3.4%. The March report on import and export prices follows February data, which showed an increase in both import and export prices. Finally, the Federal Reserve’s report on industrial production for March closes the week. Industrial production ticked up 0.2% in February.

What I’m Watching This Week – 6 April 2026

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close April 2, 2026)

The U.S. stock market was closed last week on Good Friday. Wall Street enjoyed a tech-led rally despite the escalation of the conflict with Iran and a pivot in fiscal policy following President Trump’s request that Congress approve a $1.5 trillion total defense budget for 2026, funded, in part, by a 22.6% cut in domestic discretionary programs. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains last week on a better-than-expected jobs report and a surge in AI and tech shares. Among the market sectors, information technology and communication services stood out, while energy fell despite high crude oil prices. Gold continued its historic run as a hedge against Middle East instability and potential stagflation.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 4/2Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2945,166.6446,504.672.96%-3.24%
NASDAQ23,241.9920,948.3621,879.184.44%-5.86%
S&P 5006,845.506,368.856,582.693.36%-3.84%
Russell 20002,481.912,449.702,530.043.28%1.94%
Global Dow6,169.346,150.926,305.772.52%2.21%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.44%4.31%-13 bps15 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.26100.14100.01-0.13%1.78%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$100.44$111.7211.23%94.43%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,535.30$4,693.403.49%8.55%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Employment grew by 178,000 in March, far exceeding expectations and well above the February estimate, which saw a decrease of 133,000 (revised). The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%. While the March figure was positive, it was offset somewhat by a downward revision of 7,000 for January and February combined. In March, the total number of unemployed declined by 332,000 to 7.2 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.8 million in March but was up by 322,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.4% of all unemployed people in March. Both the labor force participation rate (61.9%) and the employment-population ratio (59.2%) dipped 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. In March, average hourly earnings rose by $0.09, or 0.2%, to $37.38. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%. The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in March.
  • According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings, at 6.9 million, declined by 358,000 in February from the previous month. The number of hires fell by 498,000 in February, while the number of total separations decreased by 173,000. The number of job openings for January was revised up by 294,000 to 7.2 million, the number of hires was revised up by 53,000 to 5.3 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 39,000 to 5.1 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 6,000 to 3.1 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 29,000 to 1.7 million.
  • The Census Bureau’s report showed that retail sales increased 0.6% in February from the previous month and 3.7% from February 2025. Retail trade sales were up 0.6% for February and 3.5% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 0.7% in February and 7.5% from last year, while sales at food service and drinking places rose 0.4% in February and 5.2% over the last 12 months.
  • The goods and services deficit was $57.3 billion in February, up $2.7 billion, or 4.9%, from January. February exports were $314.8 billion, $12.6 billion, or 4.2%, more than January exports. February imports were $372.1 billion, $15.2 billion, or 4.3%, more than January imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $136.1 billion, or 54.8%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $62.6 billion, or 11.3%. Imports decreased $73.5 billion, or 9.2%.
  • According to S&P Global, manufacturing performance improved in March, as both production and new orders increased. However, with tariffs continuing to negatively impact new export sales, growth was principally driven by higher domestic demand. U.S. manufacturing growth partly reflected some stock building due to the conflict in the Middle East, which drove up inflation and added to supply-chain stress.
  • The U.S. services sector experienced a contraction in activity at the end of the first quarter of 2026, the first decline in business activity since January 2023. According to the March Purchasing Managers’ Index survey data from S&P Global, employment fell amid the weakest increase in new work orders in nearly two years. An increase in costs of doing business was passed on to purchasers. Survey respondents noted weakening confidence in the outlook against a backdrop of rising cost pressures, as a surge in energy prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East cast a shadow over the services sector.
  • For the week ended March 28, there were 202,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 21 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 21 was 1,841,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 3,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 14 were Rhode Island (2.8%), Massachusetts (2.7%), New Jersey (2.7%), Washington (2.4%), Minnesota (2.3%), California (2.2%), Illinois (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Montana (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), Connecticut (1.8%), and Michigan (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 21 were in Michigan (+2,803), Iowa (+730), Hawaii (+572), Illinois (+386), and Georgia (+374), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-3,498), Ohio (-1,208), Oklahoma (-814), California (-454), and Pennsylvania (-420).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.990 per gallon on March 30, $0.029 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.828 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of March 30, the East Coast price increased $0.029 to $3.814 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.025 to $3.709 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.014 to $3.590 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.067 to $3.917 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.072 to $5.334 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Three potentially market-moving reports are released this week. The final estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter is available. The previous estimate showed the economy expanded by 0.7%. Also out this week is the report on Personal Income and Outlays, which includes the personal consumption expenditures price index for March. February saw prices rise 0.3%, while core prices increased 0.4%. Along with the PCE price index, is the release of the Consumer Price Index for March. The CPI rose 0.3% in February and 2.4% for the year.