July 2017 – What I'm Watching This Week

What I’m Watching This Week – 31 July 2017

Published on July 31, 2017 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 28, 2017)

Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Dow and the Global Dow posted gains last week. The remaining indexes closed the week modestly lower, despite a rise in energy stocks following Saudi Arabia’s promise to cut back oil production. Technology shares fell, which hampered both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Quarterly earnings reports from large U.S. companies contributed to the Dow’s gains last week. While the Federal Reserve held interest rates at their current levels, it did reveal its intention to reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries relatively soon, which could push long-term interest rates higher.

The price of crude oil (WTI) closed at $49.79 per barrel, up from the prior week’s closing price of $45.60 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) closed last week at $1,275.60 by late Friday afternoon, $14.50 ahead of the prior week’s price of $1,261.10. The national average retail regular gasoline price rose to $2.312 per gallon on July 24, 2017, $0.034 higher than the previous week’s price and $0.130 higher than a year ago.

Market/Index	2016 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/28	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	19762.60	21580.07	21830.31	1.16%	10.46%
Nasdaq	5383.12	6387.75	6374.68	-0.20%	18.42%
S&P 500	2238.83	2472.54	2472.10	-0.02%	10.42%
Russell 2000	1357.13	1435.84	1429.26	-0.46%	5.31%
Global Dow	2528.21	2833.20	2849.54	0.58%	12.71%
Fed. Funds target rate	0.50%-0.75%	1.00%-1.25%	1.00%-1.25%	0 bps	50 bps
10-year Treasuries	2.44%	2.23%	2.29%	6 bps	-15 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

Slowing inflation was the primary reason the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at its current 1.00%-1.25% range following last week’s meeting. The Committee noted that the labor market has continued to strengthen and household spending and business fixed investment have continued to expand. However, overall inflation has declined, while wage inflation has remained low. The FOMC does not meet again until September.
The initial (advance) estimate of the gross domestic product showed the second-quarter economy grew at a healthy annual rate of 2.6%. In the first quarter, the GDP increased 1.2%. The acceleration in GDP growth in the second quarter reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an acceleration in personal consumption expenditures, and an upturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment and decelerations in exports and in nonresidential fixed investment. Disposable personal income increased $122.1 billion, or 3.5%, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $176.3 billion, or 5.1%, in the first quarter (revised). It’s important to note that the initial estimate of the GDP is based on source data that is incomplete and subject to revision.
Good news for domestic manufacturers as new orders for long-lasting goods increased $14.9 billion, or 6.5%, in June. This increase follows two consecutive monthly decreases. However, the gain in new orders is attributable, in large part, to transportation, particularly aircraft. New orders excluding transportation increased only 0.2%. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1 billion to $236.0 billion. This followed a 1.2% May increase. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up three of the last four months, increased $14.2 billion, or 1.3%, to $1,135.6 billion. This followed a 0.1% May decrease. Inventories continued to build, increasing $1.6 billion, or 0.4%.
Following a surge in May, sales of existing homes fell 1.8% in June. Despite last month’s decline, June’s sales pace (5.52 million) is 0.7% above a year ago, but is the second lowest of 2017 (February, 5.47 million). The demand for existing housing remains strong, but a dearth of supply and climbing prices have kept interested buyers at bay. Total housing inventory at the end of June declined 0.5% to 1.96 million existing homes available for sale — 7.1% lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 4.6 months a year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types (single family, condos, townhouses, and co-ops) in June was $263,800, up 6.5% from June 2016 ($247,600). June’s median sales price surpassed May as the new peak after registering the 64th straight month of year-over-year gains.
Sales of new single-family homes were only marginally better in June than existing home sales. New single-family home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 — 0.8% above the revised May rate of 605,000 and 9.1% above the June 2016 estimate of 559,000. The median and average sales prices decreased in June from May. The median sales price of new homes sold was $310,800 ($324,300 in May). The average sales price was $379,500 ($381,400 in May). The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 272,000, which represents a supply of 5.4 months at the current sales rate.
The trade deficit decreased in June. The international trade deficit was $63.9 billion in June, down $2.5 billion from May. Exports of goods for June were $128.6 billion, $1.8 billion more than May exports. Imports of goods for June were $192.4 billion, $0.7 billion less than May imports.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose to 121.1 in July, up from 117.3 in June. Surveyed consumers expressed growing optimism in the present state of the economy and the short-term outlook. On the other hand, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers had consumer sentiment fall from 95.1 in June to 93.4 in July. This is still 3.8% higher than the reading from July 2016. Survey respondents were bullish about current economic conditions, but not so optimistic concerning future prospects for the economy.
In the week ended July 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 244,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 233,000 to 234,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained 1.4%, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. During the week ended July 15, there were 1,964,000 receiving unemployment insurance benefits, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Two important economic reports are out this week: personal income and outlays and the employment situation. The FOMC relies on the price index of the personal income and outlays report as an indicator of inflationary trends. On the employment front, June’s report was mixed — as new hires increased, while wage growth was marginal at best. July’s employment report is not expected to change much.

What I’m Watching This Week – 24 July 2017

Published on July 24, 2017 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 21, 2017)

Except for the Dow, each of the indexes listed here posted modest gains by the close of last week. Favorable corporate earnings reports helped boost the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, which performed the best. The Russell 2000 gained almost 0.50% and the Global Dow inched ahead a little over 0.1%. Year-to-date, the tech-heavy Nasdaq leads the way as it surges toward a 20.0% gain, followed by the Global Dow, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Russell 2000. Low inflation may be influencing investors to move away from Treasuries, as yields fell sharply last week. A midweek push in oil prices wasn’t enough to keep them from closing the week below $46 per barrel.

The price of crude oil (WTI) closed at $45.60 per barrel, down from the prior week’s closing price of $46.68 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) closed last week at $1,261.10 by late Friday afternoon, $33.10 ahead of the prior week’s price of $1,228.00. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to $2.278 per gallon on July 17, 2017, $0.019 lower than the previous week’s price, but $0.048 higher than a year ago.

Market/Index	2016 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/21	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	19762.60	21637.74	21580.07	-0.27%	9.20%
Nasdaq	5383.12	6312.47	6387.75	1.19%	18.66%
S&P 500	2238.83	2459.27	2472.54	0.54%	10.44%
Russell 2000	1357.13	1428.82	1435.84	0.49%	5.80%
Global Dow	2528.21	2829.44	2833.20	0.13%	12.06%
Fed. Funds target rate	0.50%-0.75%	1.00%-1.25%	1.00%-1.25%	0 bps	50 bps
10-year Treasuries	2.44%	2.33%	2.23%	-10 bps	-21 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

Fluctuations in import and export prices provide a useful gauge of inflationary trends both domestically and abroad. In June, import and export prices declined 0.2%, respectively. Over the last 12 months, import prices have risen 1.5%, while export prices have increased 0.6% over the same period. This report is in line with other inflationary indicators, which show that price growth has stagnated during the second quarter of the year.
The beginning of summer has seen new residential construction gain momentum following a lackluster spring. For June, the number of housing starts (residential construction that’s begun) jumped 8.3% over May, the number of building permits issued increased by 7.4%, and housing completions advanced 5.2%.
In the week ended July 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 233,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained 1.4%, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. During the week ended July 8, there were 1,977,000 receiving unemployment insurance benefits, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 4,000 from 1,945,000 to 1,949,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The FOMC meets this week; however it is not expected that the Committee will increase interest rates at this meeting. The FOMC next meets at the end of September. The latest economic information on the second-quarter GDP is released at the end of this week. According to the first report for the second quarter, the economy slowed compared to the first quarter — advancing at a rate of 1.4%. Reports for new and existing home sales for June are also available this week. Existing home sales climbed 1.1% in May, while new home sales advanced 2.9%.

What I’m Watching This Week – 17 July 2017

Published on July 17, 2017 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 14, 2017)

Both the Dow and S&P 500 reached record highs last week, and each of the indexes listed here posted gains. While the large-cap indexes reached new highs, the tech-heavy Nasdaq had the best week, climbing over 2.50% by last week’s end, followed by the Global Dow, which gained a little over 2.0%. With consumer prices holding steady inflation appears to be stagnant, which bodes well for the Fed holding interest rates at their current level. This may have prompted investors to sell long-term bonds as prices dropped, hiking yields higher.

The price of crude oil (WTI) closed at $46.68 per barrel, up from the prior week’s closing price of $44.30 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) closed last week at $1,228.00 by late Friday afternoon, $16.00 ahead of the prior week’s price of $1,212.00. The national average retail regular gasoline price increased to $2.297 per gallon on July 10, 2017, $0.037 higher than the previous week’s price and $0.044 higher than a year ago.

Market/Index	2016 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/14	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	19762.60	21414.34	21637.74	1.04%	9.49%
Nasdaq	5383.12	6153.08	6312.47	2.59%	17.26%
S&P 500	2238.83	2425.18	2459.27	1.41%	9.85%
Russell 2000	1357.13	1415.84	1428.82	0.92%	5.28%
Global Dow	2528.21	2772.66	2829.44	2.05%	11.91%
Fed. Funds target rate	0.50%-0.75%	1.00%-1.25%	1.00%-1.25%	0 bps	50 bps
10-year Treasuries	2.44%	2.38%	2.33%	-5 bps	-11 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

In a sign that inflation is weakening, the prices consumers pay for goods and services, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, were unchanged in June compared to May. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices have increased 1.6%. The core CPI, less volatile food and energy prices, managed a subtle 0.1% bump for the month, while increasing 1.7% since June 2016. If expanding inflation is one of the key justifications used by the Fed in raising interest rates, this report makes it likely that rates will not be increased when the FOMC next meets at the end of July.
The prices producers received for their goods and services (as measured by the Producer Price Index) increased by 0.1% in June. Producer prices were unchanged in May and rose 0.5% in April. Over the 12 months ended in June, producer prices have advanced 2.0%. Almost 80% of the June rise in prices was attributable to a 0.2% increase in prices for services. Food prices rose 0.6%, while energy prices dipped 0.5%. Producer prices less the volatile food, energy, and trade services components increased 0.2% for the month, and 2.0% for the 12 months ended in June. Since increases in prices at the producer level are usually passed on to consumers, investors may seek to monitor the Producer Price Index to get a potential read on inflationary trends. Theoretically, with no real increase in prices, more money should be available for investment.
Retail sales fell 0.2% in June following a 0.1% decline in May, indicating consumers have apparently curtailed their spending. Sales at food and beverage stores fell 0.4%, restaurant sales dropped 0.6%, department store sales were down 0.7%, and gasoline sales plummeted 1.3% — a reflection of weakening prices at the pumps.
The federal deficit expanded in June to $90.23 billion compared to May’s monthly deficit of $88.42 billion. For the fiscal year, which began in October, the deficit sits at $523.08 billion. Over the same nine months last fiscal year, the deficit was $399.16 billion. An expanding deficit has a direct impact on the yields on government securities, which the government sells to provide necessary funds to meet its expenses. The more government notes and bonds that are issued, the lower the price and higher the yield. The yield on government securities can impact other interest bearing securities as well.
According to the Federal Reserve’s monthly report, industrial production rose 0.4% in June for its fifth consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing output moved up 0.2%. The index for mining posted a gain of 1.6% in June, just slightly below its pace in May. The index for utilities, however, remained unchanged. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production advanced at an annual rate of 4.7%, primarily as a result of strong increases for mining and utilities. Manufacturing output rose at an annual rate of 1.4%, a slightly slower increase than in the first quarter.
According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job openings decreased to 5.7 million (-301,000) on the last business day of May. Over the month, hires increased to 5.5 million (+429,000) and separations increased to 5.3 million (+251,000). Within separations, the quits rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 2.2% and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.1%. Over the 12 months ended in May, hires totaled 63.2 million and separations totaled 60.9 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.4 million. The JOLTS report differs from the more current employment situation report by providing specific information on job openings, hires, and separations.
In the week ended July 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 247,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 248,000 to 250,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained 1.4% for the week ended July 1, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. During the week ended July 1, there were 1,945,000 receiving unemployment insurance benefits, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 9,000 from 1,956,000 to 1,965,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There isn’t much available in terms of economic indicators this week. One report worth noting focuses on import and export prices in June. An indicator of inflation in products traded globally, the Import and Export Price Indexes impacts bond prices and equity markets, particularly when importing inflation rises, which often leads to bond and stock prices decreasing.

What I’m Watching This Week – 10 July 2017

Published on July 10, 2017 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 7, 2017)

Stocks ended last week higher, despite falling energy shares. The Dow and S&P 500 rose last Friday on the heels of June’s strong labor report. Of the indexes listed here, the Dow led the way followed by the Nasdaq and the Global Dow. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed closer to its 2016 closing value as long-term bond prices fell, sending yields higher.

The price of crude oil (WTI) closed at $44.30 per barrel, down from the prior week’s closing price of $46.33 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) decreased last week, closing at $1,212.00 by late Friday afternoon, down from the prior week’s price of $1,241.40. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased for the fourth week in a row to $2.260 per gallon on July 3, 2017, $0.028 lower than the previous week’s price and $0.031 less than a year ago.

Market/Index	2016 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/7	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	19762.60	21349.63	21414.34	0.30%	8.36%
Nasdaq	5383.12	6140.42	6153.08	0.21%	14.30%
S&P 500	2238.83	2423.41	2425.18	0.07%	8.32%
Russell 2000	1357.13	1415.36	1415.84	0.03%	4.33%
Global Dow	2528.21	2769.39	2772.66	0.12%	9.67%
Fed. Funds target rate	0.50%-0.75%	1.00%-1.25%	1.00%-1.25%	0 bps	50 bps
10-year Treasuries	2.44%	2.30%	2.38%	8 bps	-6 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic Headlines

The job situation rebounded in a big way in June as 222,000 new jobs were added during the month, well above the 152,000 (revised) new jobs added in May. The unemployment rate inched up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. Noteworthy job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining. Since January, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down by 0.4 percentage point and 658,000, respectively. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in June. For the month, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.04 to $26.25. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by $0.63, or 2.5%.
The IHS Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) indicated that manufacturing slowed in June. According to the report, manufacturing output, new orders, and employment weakened compared to May. Price inflation was the slowest since late 2016.
On the other hand, the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® suggested that the manufacturing sector expanded in June. The overall purchasing managers’ index registered 57.8%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over the May reading. New orders, production, and employment climbed in June. However, inventories and prices decreased for the month. While the Markit and ISM® reports offer conflicting information, historically, the Markit PMI™ tends to align more closely with government data.
The non-manufacturing, or services, sector expanded in June, according to the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. Non-manufacturing industries include agriculture; accommodation and food services; transportation; mining; utilities; real estate; finance and insurance. The June non-manufacturing index registered 57.4%, 0.5 percentage point higher than the May reading. Expansion in the non-manufacturing sector occurred in business activity, new orders, and prices. Employment grew in the non-manufacturing sector, but at a slower pace compared to May.
The international trade deficit shrunk in May, according to the Census Bureau. The goods and services deficit was $46.5 billion in May, down $1.1 billion from $47.6 billion in April, revised. May exports were $192.0 billion, $0.9 billion more than April exports. May imports were $238.5 billion, $0.2 billion less than April imports. Year-to-date, the trade deficit increased $27.0 billion, or 13.1%, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $54.3 billion, or 6.0%. Imports increased $81.4 billion, or 7.3%.
In the week ended July 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 248,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained 1.4% for the week ended June 24, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. During the week ended June 24, there were 1,956,000 receiving unemployment insurance benefits, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 3,000 from 1,948,000 to 1,945,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Trading is expected to pick up following the holiday-shortened week. Last week’s favorable employment report should quell investors’ concerns about a slowdown in job growth. This week, reports focusing on consumer spending and inflationary trends are out with the Producer Price Index, retail sales report, and The Consumer Price Index.

What I’m Watching This Week – 3 July 2017

Published on July 3, 2017 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close June 30, 2017)

Last week was not a positive one for equity investors. In a week of heavy trading, the Dow and S&P 500 each lost value while the Nasdaq dropped nearly 2.0%. Of the indexes listed here, only the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow didn’t lose ground, eking out minuscule gains. News that the Bank of England is considering an interest rate hike, coupled with word that the European Central Bank may be scaling back its long run of quantitative easing, may have prompted investor activity. Long-term bond yields also shot up, with the 10-year Treasuries climbing 16 basis points as bond prices fell. A small increase in oil prices helped lift energy stocks higher.

The price of crude oil (WTI) closed at $46.33 per barrel, up from the prior week’s closing price of $43.15 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) decreased last week, closing at $1,241.40 by late Friday afternoon, down from the prior week’s price of $1,257.40. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to $2.288 per gallon on June 26, 2017, $0.030 lower than the prior week’s price and $0.041 less than a year ago.

Market/Index	2016 Close	Prior Week	As of 6/30	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	19762.60	21394.76	21349.63	-0.21%	8.03%
Nasdaq	5383.12	6265.25	6140.42	-1.99%	14.07%
S&P 500	2238.83	2438.30	2423.41	-0.61%	8.24%
Russell 2000	1357.13	1414.78	1415.36	0.04%	4.29%
Global Dow	2528.21	2769.05	2769.39	0.01%	9.54%
Fed. Funds target rate	0.50%-0.75%	1.00%-1.25%	1.00%-1.25%	0 bps	50 bps
10-year Treasuries	2.44%	2.14%	2.30%	16 bps	-14 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

The final report on the first-quarter gross domestic product showed growth improved marginally, but it is still relatively weak compared to the fourth quarter. The GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2017, according to the third and final estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The second estimate released in May estimated the GDP growing at a rate of 1.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2016, the GDP increased 2.1%. The deceleration in the GDP in the first quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory investment, a deceleration in personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending), and a downturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in exports, an acceleration in nonresidential (business) fixed investment, and a deceleration in imports. Gross domestic income grew 1.0% in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4% in the fourth quarter.

Consumers did more saving than spending in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.4%, in May, while disposable (after-tax) income jumped $71.7 billion, or 0.5%. However, personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending) rose a scant $7.3 billion, or 0.1%. The increase wasn’t attributable to wages and salaries (+0.1%), but reflected increases in dividend income, personal income transfers (generally to savings, which rose 0.4%), and proprietors’ income. Core prices, less food and energy, increased 0.1% and are up a marginal 1.4% year-on-year. While this report is not necessarily negative, it is in line with other economic indicators, which show inflation in particular, and the economy in general, slowed in May.

The manufacturing sector may be weakening after new orders for long-lasting goods fell for the second consecutive month. New orders for durable goods fell $2.5 billion, or 1.1%, in May, following a 0.9% decrease in April. The drop in new orders is the largest monthly decrease in 6 months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased a marginal 0.1% for the month. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.8 billion, or 0.8%, to $234.9 billion. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.3 billion, or 0.2%, to $1,120.1 billion. Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up 10 of the last 11 months, increased $0.7 billion, or 0.2%, to $395.4 billion.

An uptick in consumer exports helped narrow the trade deficit in May, according to the Census Bureau. The international trade deficit was $65.9 billion in May, down $1.2 billion from $67.1 billion in April. Exports of goods for May were $127.1 billion, $0.5 billion more than April exports. Imports of goods for May were $193.0 billion, $0.8 billion less than April imports.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had fallen in May, increased somewhat in June. The index rose to 118.9 for June, up from May’s 117.6 reading. Consumers remained upbeat about current economic conditions, but were less enthusiastic about the short-term outlook, as the Expectations Index declined from 102.3 in May to 100.6 in June.

Respondents in the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers seemed to follow consumers’ sentiments from The Conference Board’s report. The Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped in June to 95.1 from 97.1 in May. Consumers viewed current economic conditions favorably, as that index increased from 111.7 to 112.5. However, the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 87.7 to 83.9 — an indication that consumers aren’t too sure about the future of the economy.

In the week ended June 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained 1.4% for the week ended June 17, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. During the week ended June 17, there were 1,948,000 receiving unemployment insurance, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,944,000 to 1,942,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Trading should be slower during the holiday-shortened week. The June employment report is released at week’s end. The unemployment rate has fallen over the past few months, but so has the number of new hires. Wage inflation has been moderate at best and isn’t expected to pick up steam any time soon.