Tag: doom and gloom

Monthly Market Review – October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

October lived up to its reputation for volatility as triple-digit intraday swings in the Dow became almost commonplace. Despite being spooked for much of the month–at one point the S&P 500 was down almost 8% from its most recent high–both the S&P and the Dow industrials rallied strongly to end the month at fresh all-time records. Generally encouraging corporate earnings from U.S. companies, a strong Q3 GDP, and increased central bank support overseas helped equities markets overcome fears about the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and global concerns about slowing growth and the threat of Ebola.

Increased U.S. energy resources and reduced global demand meant that oil prices continued to drop, ending the month at roughly $80 a barrel. The dollar maintained its September gains against a basket of six foreign currencies; since oil is traded in dollars, a stronger dollar also helped keep oil prices in check. Meanwhile, after a bounce at mid-month, the price of gold plummeted to roughly $1,170 an ounce. Not surprisingly, the volatility in equities caused the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury to fall briefly to its lowest level since June 2013 as investors sought the relative safety of Treasury securities.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Month As of 10/31 Month Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17042.90 17390.52 2.04% 4.91%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4493.39 4630.74 3.06% 10.87%
S&P 500 1848.36 1972.29 2018.05 2.32% 9.18%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1101.68 1173.51 6.52% .85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2534.47 2527.85 -.26% 1.76%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.52% 2.35% -17 bps -69 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

The Month in Review

  • The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% during the third quarter, according to the initial estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was slightly less than Q2’s 4.6%, but still much stronger than during 2014’s first quarter.
  • The 248,000 new jobs created in September helped cut the U.S. unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.9%; it’s the first time since July 2008 that joblessness has been below 6%. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said hiring during the prior two months was stronger than previously thought. However, at least some of the decline in the unemployment rate resulted from 97,000 people, such as retiring baby boomers, dropping out of the labor force. That brought the percentage of people in the workforce to 62.7%–the lowest participation rate since 1978.
  • As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee halted new bond purchases, which have helped support the economy for the last six years by making credit easier to get. The statement said that despite improvements in the labor market and the overall economy, the committee sees inflation being held in check by lower energy prices. Therefore, it still anticipates the Fed funds interest rate will remain at its current level for “a considerable time.” However, that timetable could be accelerated by unanticipated upticks in inflation and/or employment (or pushed back if either declines).
  • As Fed bond purchases came to an end, the Bank of Japan went in the opposite direction, announcing it will expand its securities purchases. The move is designed to prevent potential deflation (Japan’s 1% annual inflation rate is far below the central bank’s 2% target). The added buying could help make Japanese exports cheaper.
  • Eurozone manufacturing output saw its largest monthly decline since late 2008 in August, according to the European Union’s statistical agency. The 4.3% decline in German industrial production was especially unsettling, and September’s 0.3% annual inflation rate in the eurozone–the lowest level in five years–raised concerns about the possibility of deflation. To help combat that weakness, the European Central Bank will expand its bond purchases to include asset-backed securities and certain bank bonds, but declined to lower its key interest rate, at least for the time being.
  • China’s growth rate, while still robust compared to the rest of the world, slowed to 7.3% during the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics–below the 7.5% official target for annual growth. Real estate prices and sales continued to be a soft spot. To try to jump-start lending, China’s central bank plans to inject roughly $33 billion into its banking system.
  • Data on the U.S. housing market was generally encouraging. September’s 2.4% increase in existing-home sales represented the fastest growth of 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors®. New home sales also were up 0.2%, which put them 17% higher than in September 2013, and the Commerce Department said both housing starts and building permits were up for the month. However, home prices were a different story. The 0.2% increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index in August represented the slowest annual growth rate in almost two years.
  • U.S. inflation continued to be well-contained. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September, which left the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% for the last 12 months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said increases in food and housing outweighed a 0.7% drop in energy costs. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell 0.1% in September, largely because of declines in both food and energy costs, though wholesale prices overall are 1.6% higher than in September 2013.
  • Retail sales in the United States slipped 0.3% in September, though the Commerce Department said they were 4.3% ahead of a year earlier. The biggest declines were seen in building and garden supplies, clothing, and nonstore retailers, all of which were down more than 1% during the month.
  • U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, much of that was due to a 3.7% decline in the typically volatile transportation sector; excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.2%.

Eye on the Month Ahead

With the Fed’s quantitative easing officially at an end and monetary policy meetings on hold until December, equities markets may begin to focus on what’s left of earnings season as well as the jobs and inflation data that will affect future Fed actions. The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections also could influence the mood of the markets.

What I’m Watching This Week – 27 October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Relief at last: Investors finally regained some appetite for risk as equities got a break from the recent wave of selling. After four straight weeks of losses, the S&P 500 saw a strong bounce. However, the Nasdaq’s rebound was even bigger and the small caps of the Russell 2000 saw their second consecutive week of robust gains. Though the Dow industrials lagged the other three domestic indices, the rally brought the Dow back into positive territory for the year. The Global Dow also recovered from its slump, nearly managing to break even for the year.

The strong showing in equities helped send the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield up as prices fell. Meanwhile, the price of oil stabilized in the low $80s

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/24 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16380.41 16805.41 2.59% 1.38%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4258.44 4483.72 5.29% 7.35%
S&P 500 1848.36 1886.76 1964.58 4.12% 6.29%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1082.33 1118.82 3.37% -3.85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2409.20 2470.50 2.54% -.55%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.22% 2.29% 7 bps -75 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Sales of existing homes jumped 2.4% during September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. That’s the highest pace of 2014, though the number of sales was 1.7% lower than in the previous September. The $209,700 median sale price was 5.6% higher than a year earlier.
  • Meanwhile, new home sales were up 0.2% in September; the Commerce Department said that put them 17% higher than in September 2013.
  • Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that left the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% for the last 12 months–a level that might give the Federal Reserve some leeway to keep interest rates low. Increases in food and housing outweighed a 0.7% drop in energy costs.
  • China’s growth rate, while still robust compared to the rest of the world, slowed during the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The 7.3% increase in the country’s gross domestic product was slightly lower than Q2’s 7.5% and below the official target for annual growth (also 7.5%). Real estate prices and sales continued to be a soft spot in the Chinese economy.
  • After subjecting 150 European banks to annual stress tests, the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority said only 12 of them needed to raise additional capital as protection against a worst-case scenario. Italy had the most problem banks, with Greece and Cyprus tied for second.
  • Similar stress tests for U.S. banks to be conducted by the Federal Reserve next year will measure how well they would withstand a sharp deterioration in the corporate bond market, especially high-yield bonds issued by highly indebted companies. As in previous years, the tests also will gauge exposure to threats from a variety of factors that include sharp declines in the job market and economic growth, a jump in oil prices to $110 a barrel, and a 60% drop in the stock market. Banks that fail the test could be restricted in their ability to pay dividends or buy back stocks until they address the deficiencies.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Once again, all eyes will be on the Fed as quantitative easing is expected to come to an end. And with recent volatility in the equities markets suggesting investor uncertainty, the first estimate of Q3 gross domestic product is likely to be significant. Also, the release of stress tests conducted on European banks could affect investor perception of the financial system there.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Investor, Know Thyself: How Your Biases Can Affect Investment Decisions

Published on by dredheadz

Traditional economic models are based on a simple premise: people make rational financial decisions that are designed to maximize their economic benefits. In reality, however, most humans don’t make decisions based on a sterile analysis of the pros and cons. While most of us do think carefully about financial decisions, it is nearly impossible to completely disconnect from our “gut feelings,” that nagging intuition that seems to have been deeply implanted in the recesses of our brain.

Over the past few decades, another school of thought has emerged that examines how human psychological factors influence economic and financial decisions. This field–known as behavioral economics, or in the investing arena, behavioral finance–has identified several biases that can unnerve even the most stoic investor. Understanding these biases may help you avoid questionable calls in the heat of the financial moment.

Sound familiar?

Following is a brief summary of some common biases influencing even the most experienced investors. Can you relate to any of these?

  1. Anchoring refers to the tendency to become attached to something, even when it may not make sense. Examples include a piece of furniture that has outlived its usefulness, a home or car that one can no longer afford, or a piece of information that is believed to be true, but is in fact, false. In investing, it can refer to the tendency to either hold an investment too long or place too much reliance on a certain piece of data or information.
  2. Loss-aversion bias is the term used to describe the tendency to fear losses more than celebrate equivalent gains. For example, you may experience joy at the thought of finding yourself $5,000 richer, but the thought of losing $5,000 might provoke a far greater fear. Similar to anchoring, loss aversion could cause you to hold onto a losing investment too long, with the fear of turning a paper loss into a real loss.
  3. Endowment bias is also similar to loss-aversion bias and anchoring in that it encourages investors to “endow” a greater value in what they currently own over other possibilities. You may presume the investments in your portfolio are of higher quality than other available alternatives, simply because you own them.
  4. Overconfidence is simply having so much confidence in your own ability to select investments for your portfolio that you might ignore warning signals.
  5. Confirmation bias is the tendency to latch onto, and assign more authority to, opinions that agree with your own. For example, you might give more credence to an analyst report that favors a stock you recently purchased, in spite of several other reports indicating a neutral or negative outlook.
  6. The bandwagon effect, also known as herd behavior, happens when decisions are made simply because “everyone else is doing it.” For an example of this, one might look no further than a fairly recent and much-hyped social media company’s initial public offering (IPO). Many a discouraged investor jumped at that IPO only to sell at a significant loss a few months later. (Some of these investors may have also suffered from overconfidence bias.)
  7. Recency bias refers to the fact that recent events can have a stronger influence on your decisions than other, more distant events. For example, if you were severely burned by the market downturn in 2008, you may have been hesitant about continuing or increasing your investments once the markets settled down. Conversely, if you were encouraged by the stock market’s subsequent bull run, you may have increased the money you put into equities, hoping to take advantage of any further gains. Consider that neither of these perspectives may be entirely rational given that investment decisions should be based on your individual goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.
  8. A negativity bias indicates the tendency to give more importance to negative news than positive news, which can cause you to be more risk-averse than appropriate for your situation.

An objective view can help

The human brain has evolved over millennia into a complex decision-making tool, allowing us to retrieve past experiences and process information so quickly that we can respond almost instantaneously to perceived threats and opportunities. However, when it comes to your finances, these gut feelings may not be your strongest ally, and in fact may work against you. Before jumping to any conclusions about your finances, consider what biases may be at work beneath your conscious radar. It might also help to consider the opinions of an objective third party, such as a qualified financial professional, who could help identify any biases that may be clouding your judgment.

The New Estate Tax Rules and Your Estate Plan

Published on by dredheadz

The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (the 2010 Tax Act) included new gift, estate, and generation-skipping transfer (GST) tax provisions. The 2010 Tax Act provided that in 2011 and 2012, the gift and estate tax exemption was $5 million (indexed for inflation in 2012), the GST tax exemption was also $5 million (indexed for inflation in 2012), and the maximum rate for both taxes was 35%. New to estate tax law was gift and estate tax exemption portability: generally, any gift and estate tax exemption left unused by a deceased spouse could be transferred to the surviving spouse in 2011 and 2012. The GST tax exemption, however, is not portable. Starting in 2013, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (the 2012 Tax Act) permanently extended the $5 million (as indexed for inflation, and thus $5,340,000 in 2014, $5,250,000 in 2013) exemptions and portability of the gift and estate tax exemption, but also increased the top gift, estate, and GST tax rate to 40%. You should understand how these new rules may affect your estate plan.

Exemption portability

Under prior law, the gift and estate tax exemption was effectively “use it or lose it.” In order to fully utilize their respective exemptions, married couples often implemented a bypass plan: they divided assets between a marital trust and a credit shelter, or bypass, trust (this is often referred to as an A/B trust plan). Under the 2010 and 2012 Tax Acts, the estate of a deceased spouse can transfer to the surviving spouse any portion of the exemption it does not use (this portion is referred to as the deceased spousal unused exclusion amount, or DSUEA). The surviving spouse’s exemption, then, is increased by the DSUEA, which the surviving spouse can use for lifetime gifts or transfers at death.

Example:  At the time of Henry’s death in 2011, he had made $1 million in taxable gifts and had an estate of $2 million. The DSUEA available to his surviving spouse, Linda, is $2 million ($5 million – ($1 million + $2 million)). This $2 million can be added to Linda’s own exemption for a total of $7,340,000 ($5,340,000 + $2 million), assuming Linda dies in 2014.

The portability of the exemption coupled with an increase in the exemption amount to $5,340,000 per taxpayer allows a married couple to pass on up to $10,680,000 gift and estate tax free in 2014. Though this seems to negate the usefulness of A/B trust planning, there are still many reasons to consider using A/B trusts.

  • The assets of the surviving spouse, including those inherited from the deceased spouse, may appreciate in value at a rate greater than the rate at which the exemption amount increases. This may cause assets in the surviving spouse’s estate to exceed that spouse’s available exemption. On the other hand, appreciation of assets placed in a credit shelter trust will avoid estate tax at the death of the surviving spouse.
  • The distribution of assets placed in the credit shelter trust can be controlled. Since the trust is irrevocable, your plan of distribution to particular beneficiaries cannot be altered by your surviving spouse. Leaving your entire estate directly to your surviving spouse would leave the ultimate distribution of those assets to his or her discretion.
  • A credit shelter trust may also protect trust assets from the claims of any creditors of your surviving spouse and the trust beneficiaries. You can also include a spendthrift provision to limit your surviving spouse’s access to trust assets, thus preserving their value for the trust beneficiaries.

A/B trust plans with formula clauses

If you currently have an A/B trust plan, it may no longer carry out your intended wishes because of the increased exemption amount. Many of these plans use a formula clause that transfers to the credit shelter trust an amount equal to the most that can pass free from estate tax, with the remainder passing to the marital trust for the benefit of the spouse. For example, say a spouse died in 2003 with an estate worth $5,340,000 and an estate tax exemption of $1 million. The full exemption amount, or $1 million, would have been transferred to the credit shelter trust and $4,340,000 would have passed to the marital trust. Under the same facts in 2014, since the exemption has increased, the entire $5,340,000 estate will transfer to the credit shelter trust, to which the surviving spouse may have little or no access. Review your estate plan carefully with an estate planning professional to be sure your intentions will be carried out under the new laws.

Wealth transfer strategies through gifting

Because of the larger exemptions and lower tax rates, there may be unprecedented opportunities for gifting.

By making gifts up to the exemption amount, you can significantly reduce the value of your estate without incurring gift tax. In addition, any future appreciation on the gifted assets will escape taxation. Assets with the most potential to increase in value, such as real estate (e.g., a vacation home), expensive art, furniture, jewelry, and closely held business interests, offer the best tax savings opportunity.

Gifting may be done in several different forms. These include direct gifts to individuals, gifts made in trust (e.g., grantor retained annuity trusts and qualified personal residence trusts), and intra-family loans. Currently, you can also employ techniques that leverage the high exemptions to potentially provide an even greater tax benefit (for example, creating a family limited partnership may also provide valuation discounts for tax purposes).

For high-net-worth married couples, gifting to an irrevocable life insurance trust (ILIT) designed as a dynasty trust can reduce estate size while providing a substantial gift for multiple generations (depending on how long a trust can last under the laws of your particular state). The value of the gift may be increased (leveraged) by the purchase of second-to-die life insurance within the trust. Further, the larger exemptions enable you to increase, gift tax free, the premiums paid for life insurance policies that are owned by the ILIT or other family members. Premium payments on such policies are taxable gifts, so these premium payments are often limited to avoid incurring gift tax. This in turn restricts the amount of life insurance that can be purchased. But the increased exemptions provide the opportunity to make significantly greater gifts of premium payments, which can be used to buy a larger life insurance policy.

Before implementing a gifting plan, however, there are a few issues you should consider.

  • Can you afford to make the gift in the first place (you may need those assets and the related cash flow in the future)?
  • Do you anticipate that your estate will be subject to estate taxes at your death?
  • Is minimizing estate taxes more important to you than retaining control over the asset?
  • Do you have concerns about gifting large amounts to your heirs (i.e., is the recipient competent to manage the asset)?
  • Does the transfer tax savings outweigh the potential capital gains tax the recipient may incur if the asset is later sold? The recipient of the gift gets a carryover basis (i.e., your tax basis) for income tax purposes. On the other hand, property left to an individual as a result of death will generally receive a step-up in cost basis to fair market value at date of death, resulting in potentially less income tax to pay when such an asset is ultimately sold.

Caution:  The amount of gift tax exemption you used in the past will reduce the $5,340,000 available to you in 2014. For example, a person who used $1 million of his or her exemption in 2012, will be able to make additional gifts totaling $4,340,000 during 2014 free from gift tax.

Tip:  In addition to this opportunity to transfer a significant amount of wealth tax free, it’s important to remember that you can still take advantage of the $14,000 per person per year annual gift tax exclusion for 2013 and 2014. Also, gifts of tuition payments and payment of medical expenses (if paid directly to the institutions) are still tax free and can be made at any time.

What I’m Watching This Week – 13 October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Concerns about signs of weaker growth abroad seemed to outweigh domestic corporate earnings reports last week as volatility went extreme. The Dow industrials saw triple-digit swings four days in a row that wiped out all of the index’s year-to-date gains, and both the Dow and the S&P 500 had their worst weeks since May 2012. By the end of the week, the S&P was down 5% from its most recent high (a 10% drop is considered a correction). Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell solidly into correction territory, ending the week down almost 13% from its most recent high in March. The Global Dow also turned negative year-to-date.

The volatility sent investors once again seeking the relative security of U.S. Treasuries. As the price of the benchmark 10-year note has risen, the decline in its yield has accelerated in each of the last four weeks; the 10-year yield ended last week at its lowest level since June 2013.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/10 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17009.69 16544.10 -2.74% -.20%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4475.62 4276.24 -4.45% 2.39%
S&P 500 1848.36 1967.90 1906.13 -3.14% 3.13%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1104.74 1053.32 -4.65% -9.48%
Global Dow 2484.10 2493.99 2430.85 -2.53% -2.14%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.45% 2.31% -14 bps -73 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee showed that members are worried about slowing global growth. The potential domestic impact of dollar strength, which could become more problematic when interest rates increase, also was a concern, as a stronger dollar could make U.S. exports more expensive and weigh on the domestic economy. Members also wrestled with how to communicate any shift in the committee’s expectations about when a rate increase might occur.
  • European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the already sluggish European economy seems to be slowing further. Coupled with discouraging economic reports out of Germany–exports fell 5.8% in August, and manufacturing output and new orders also were down–Draghi’s statement raised concerns about the financial health of Europe as a whole. To add to the gloom, the International Monetary Fund also lowered its outlook for global growth next year, though its U.S. forecast was more optimistic.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The question of the week will be whether last week’s volatility exhausted negative sentiment or there’s more to come. If domestic Q3 earnings reports and corporate guidance are robust, they might help provide some counterbalance to global pessimism. However, many large U.S. corporations earn a large percentage of their profits overseas; if forward guidance tends to be negative, that could have the opposite effect. Options expiration at week’s end also could affect volatility.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

What I’m Watching This Week – 6 October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

For the second straight week, a Friday rally after encouraging employment numbers couldn’t outweigh equities’ losses earlier in the week. However, it did manage to rescue the Russell 2000 from a brief dip into correction territory (a correction is generally considered to be 10% down from the most recent high). Once again, the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 outpaced the small caps, while equities’ recent slump translated into gains for the price of the benchmark 20-year Treasury.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/3 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17113.15 17009.69 -.60% 2.61%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4512.19 4475.62 -.81% 7.16%
S&P 500 1848.36 1982.85 1967.90 -.75% 6.47%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1119.33 1104.74 -1.30% -5.06%
Global Dow 2484.10 2551.32 2493.99 -2.25% .40%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.54% 2.45% -9 bps -59 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The 248,000 new jobs created in September helped cut the U.S. unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.9%; it’s the first time since July 2008 that joblessness has been below 6%. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said hiring during the prior two months was stronger than previously thought. However, at least some of the decline in the unemployment rate resulted from 97,000 people dropping out of the labor force (for example, retiring baby boomers). That brought the percentage of people in the workforce to 62.7%–the lowest participation rate since 1978.
  • Though home prices measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index continued to rise in July, the pace slowed significantly. Year-over-year gains were down in 19 of the 20 cities, and monthly increases were smaller in 17 cities. Nevertheless, the index was 6.7% ahead of a year earlier, and prices rose 0.6% during the month.
  • The European Central Bank declined to make any further cuts to interest rates until it sees the impact of bond purchases scheduled to begin this month, including sovereign bonds from Greece and Cyprus. However, President Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB stands ready to adopt further stimulus measures if necessary.
  • Both personal income and consumption were up in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in private wages and salaries was almost double that of July, pushing personal income up 0.3%. Personal consumption–one of the Fed’s favorite measures of inflationary pressure–rose 0.5%. That increased consumption helped cut the savings rate from 5.6% to 5.4%.
  • The failure of China’s manufacturing sector to rebound in September from the previous month’s low level fanned concerns about global growth. HSBC Corp.’s Purchasing Managers’ Index remained at 50.2–barely above the level that would represent contraction.
  • The U.S. services sector continued to grow in September, but at a slightly slower pace. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index nudged downward one point from August’s record level to 58.6.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Q3 earnings season will have its unofficial kickoff when Alcoa reports its results after Wednesday’s market close. Discussions of what should happen after the anticipated end of quantitative easing will be scrutinized when minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

QUARTERLY MARKET REVIEW: JULY-SEPTEMBER 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Volatility returned to equities markets in Q3. A strong August was followed by losses in September, when any rallies began to focus around selected winners rather than benefitting stocks across the board. Investors exhibited a decided preference for large caps; the S&P 500 closed above 2,000 for the first time ever and the Dow industrials also set new all-time highs. The Nasdaq returned to a level it hadn’t seen since March 2000 and regained the lead for 2014. However, the Russell 2000, which has struggled for most of the year, fell deeper into negative territory year-to-date, while the Global Dow suffered from political conflicts abroad and concerns about global growth.

Bond investors continued to demonstrate surprising resilience. In early September, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell to 2.35%–a level it hadn’t seen in more than a year–as prices rose. However, as the Federal Reserve continued to taper its economic support and ramped up discussion of how and when to increase rates, demand began to taper off (though geopolitical anxieties and a strengthening dollar kept the decline in check). Gold, which started the quarter at roughly $1,320, ended below $1,220. It was hurt in part by a stronger U.S. dollar, which by the end of the quarter had hit its highest level against the euro in almost two years. Dollar strength coupled with weaker global demand also meant lower oil prices; a barrel fell from $107 a barrel to roughly $93 during the quarter, a level it hasn’t seen since January.

Market/Index 2013 Close As of 9/30 Month Change Quarter Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17042.90 -.32% 1.29% 2.81%
NASDAQ 4176.59 4493.39 -1.90% 1.93% 7.59%
S&P 500 1848.36 1972.29 -1.55% .62% 6.70%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1101.68 -6.19% -7.65% -5.32%
Global Dow 2484.10 2534.47 -3.22% -2.73% 2.03%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.52% 17 bps -1 bps -52 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Quarterly Economic Perspective

  • After contracting 2.1% in Q1, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.6% during the second quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said increases in consumer expenditures, exports, business spending on equipment, and spending by both state and local governments were major contributors to the growth. Meanwhile, after-tax corporate profits also rebounded from their Q1 slump, rising 8.6%.
  • The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee continued to unwind its economic support. Its September bond purchases were only $15 billion, and they are scheduled to end in October. The committee also reaffirmed that the key Fed funds interest rate won’t increase for a “considerable time” after that. However, a survey of members showed that most now expect steeper increases than previously estimated, with rates hitting 1.4% by the end of 2015 and 2.9% by December 2016.
  • Despite a slight improvement in August’s unemployment rate (6.1%), the number of new jobs added in August was a disappointing 142,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The continued slack in the labor market is one reason cited by the Federal Reserve for its caution about raising interest rates.
  • The housing recovery showed signs of tapering off. New home sales fell in both July and August, and the National Association of Realtors® said a shortage of the cash buyers who had helped boost existing home resales in July cut resales the following month. Housing starts and building permits also slowed in August after a strong July, according to the Commerce Department, while the rate of home price increases in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index began to taper off.
  • After a strong July, manufacturing gains began to taper off. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose and fell based on orders for commercial aircraft, which hit a record high in July and plummeted a month later; aside from transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.7% in August. Auto production also saw a strong July and weaker August, and after six straight months of gains, the Fed’s gauge of industrial production edged downward in August.
  • By quarter’s end, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said falling energy costs had helped cut consumer inflation by 0.2%. That left the annual inflation rate for the previous 12 months at 1.7%, down from Q1’s 2.1%. The 1.8% annual inflation rate for final-state wholesale prices also was lower than Q1’s 2%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said both personal income and consumer spending saw gains throughout the quarter.
  • Conflicts over Ukraine continued to raise concerns about how Russian retaliation for Western sanctions might affect the fragile European economy. A eurozone GDP that essentially flatlined in Q2 and weakness in both Germany and Italy led the European Central Bank to promise more aggressive stimulus measures.
  • The Chinese economy continued to show signs of slowing in some key areas. By August, growth in industrial production was almost 7% instead of the previous month’s 9%, housing sales were down nearly 11% from the beginning of 2014, and HSBC Corp.’s Purchasing Managers’ Index remained at 50.2–barely above the level that would represent contraction.

Eye on the Month Ahead

With October’s Fed bond purchases expected to be the last, next month’s monetary policy committee announcement will be watched to see if a rate hike is still a “considerable time” away. Global investors will assess whether additional expected support from the European Central Bank is likely to help jumpstart the economy there.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); http://www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

What I’m Watching This Week – 29 September 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Volatility was the name of the game last week. In addition to a multination campaign of airstrikes against terrorist targets in the Middle East, a decline in U.S. durable goods orders and an upward revision to U.S. GDP sent equities yo-yoing. Friday’s rally couldn’t overcome earlier losses, particularly those suffered by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. Meanwhile, increases in the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury sent its yield lower.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 9/26 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17279.74 17113.15 -.96% 3.24%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4579.79 4512.19 -1.48% 8.04%
S&P 500 1848.36 2010.40 1982.85 -1.37% 7.28%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1146.92 1119.33 -2.41% -3.81%
Global Dow 2484.10 2605.20 2551.32 -2.07% 2.71%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.59% 2.54% -5 bps -50 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The U.S. economy grew faster during the second quarter than previously thought. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate showed gross domestic product rising 4.6% rather than 4.2%; exports and business investment were responsible for much of the upward revision.
  • Durable goods orders plummeted 18.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, the decline followed a 22.5% increase in July and was largely the result of a 74% drop in orders for commercial aircraft and parts, which had hit a record high the previous month. Aside from the decline in transportation-related equipment, new orders actually rose 0.7%.
  • New home sales were up 18% in August; the Commerce Department said that was 33% higher than the previous August. However, sales of existing homes fell 1.8% during the month, in part because there were fewer cash buyers. Though the National Association of Realtors® said August’s number represented the second-best pace of 2014, it was 5.3% lower than a year earlier.
  • Treasury officials announced new rules designed to make so-called “tax inversions” more difficult. (Inversion is a practice in which domestic corporations merge with foreign firms and reincorporate overseas, which reduces the U.S. corporate taxes owed.) The regulations could affect several pending mergers of U.S. corporations with overseas companies.
  • Legendary bond mutual fund manager Bill Gross stirred up the relatively placid bond world by resigning from Pacific Investment Management Co.–reportedly after internal conflicts at the firm–to take a position at Janus Capital Group.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Next week will paint a broad-brush picture of the current state of the U.S. economy, including housing, manufacturing, and consumer spending. As always, unemployment data will be assessed for its potential impact on the timing of future Federal Reserve action. And given recent weak data on overseas growth, any stimulus measures announced by the European Central Bank likely would be welcomed by international investors.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK);www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Top Year-End Investment Tips

Published on by dredheadz

Just what you need, right? One more time-consuming task to be taken care of between now and the end of the year. But taking a little time out from the holiday chores to make some strategic saving and investing decisions beforeDecember 31 can affect not only your long-term ability to meet your financial goals but also the amount of taxes you’ll owe next April.

Look at the forest, not just the trees

The first step in your year-end investment planning process should be a review of your overall portfolio. That review can tell you whether you need to rebalance. If one type of investment has done well–for example, large-cap stocks–it might now represent a greater percentage of your portfolio than you originally intended. To rebalance, you would sell some of that asset class and use that money to buy other types of investments to bring your overall allocation back to an appropriate balance. Your overall review should also help you decide whether that rebalancing should be done before or after December 31 for tax reasons.

Also, make sure your asset allocation is still appropriate for your time horizon and goals. You might consider being a bit more aggressive if you’re not meeting your financial targets, or more conservative if you’re getting closer to retirement. If you want greater diversification, you might consider adding an asset class that tends to react to market conditions differently than your existing investments do. Or you might look into an investment that you have avoided in the past because of its high valuation if it’s now selling at a more attractive price. Diversification and asset allocation don’t guarantee a profit or insure against a possible loss, of course, but they’re worth reviewing at least once a year.

Know when to hold ’em

When contemplating a change in your portfolio, don’t forget to consider how long you’ve owned each investment. Assets held for a year or less generate short-term capital gains, which are taxed as ordinary income. Depending on your tax bracket, your ordinary income tax rate could be much higher than the long-term capital gains rate, which applies to the sale of assets held for more than a year. For example, as of tax year 2013, the top marginal tax rate is 39.6%, which applies to any annual taxable income over $400,000 ($450,000 for married individuals filing jointly). By contrast, the long-term capital gains rate owed by taxpayers in the 39.6% tax bracket is 20%. For most investors–those in tax brackets between 25% and 35%–long-term capital gains are taxed at 15%; taxpayers in the lowest tax brackets–15% or less–are taxed at 0% on any long-term capital gains. (Long-term gains on collectibles are different; those are taxed at 28%.)

Your holding period can also affect the treatment of qualified stock dividends, which are taxed at the more favorable long-term capital gains rates. You must have held the stock at least 61 days within the 121-day period that starts 60 days before the stock’s ex-dividend date; preferred stock must be held for 91 days within a 181-day window. The lower rate also depends on when and whether your shares were hedged or optioned.

Make lemonade from lemons

Now is the time to consider the tax consequences of any capital gains or losses you’ve experienced this year. Though tax considerations shouldn’t be the primary driver of your investing decisions, there are steps you can take before the end of the year to minimize any tax impact of your investing decisions.

If you have realized capital gains from selling securities at a profit (congratulations!) and you have no tax losses carried forward from previous years, you can sell losing positions to avoid being taxed on some or all of those gains. Any losses over and above the amount of your gains can be used to offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income ($1,500 for a married person filing separately) or carried forward to reduce your taxes in future years. Selling losing positions for the tax benefit they will provide next April is a common financial practice known as “harvesting your losses.”

Example:  You sold stock in ABC company this year for $2,500 more than you paid when you bought it four years ago. You decide to sell the XYZ stock that you bought six years ago because it seems unlikely to regain the $20,000 you paid for it. You sell your XYZ shares at a $7,000 loss. You offset your $2,500 capital gain, offset $3,000 of ordinary income tax this year, and carry forward the remaining $1,500 to be applied in future tax years.

Time any trades appropriately

If you’re selling to harvest losses in a stock or mutual fund and intend to repurchase the same security, make sure you wait at least 31 days before buying it again. Otherwise, the trade is considered a “wash sale,” and the tax loss will be disallowed. The wash sale rule also applies if you buy an option on the stock, sell it short, or buy it through your spouse within 30 days before or after the sale.

If you have unrealized losses that you want to capture but still believe in a specific investment, there are a couple of strategies you might think about. If you want to sell but don’t want to be out of the market for even a short period, you could sell your position at a loss, then buy a similar exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests in the same asset class or industry. Or you could double your holdings, then sell your original shares at a loss after 31 days. You’d end up with the same position, but would have captured the tax loss.

If you’re buying a mutual fund in a taxable account, find out when it will distribute any dividends or capital gains. Consider delaying your purchase until after that date, which often is near year-end. If you buy just before the distribution, you’ll owe taxes this year on that money, even if your own shares haven’t appreciated. And if you plan to sell a fund anyway, you may minimize taxes by selling before the distribution date.

Note:  Before buying a mutual fund, don’t forget to consider carefully its investment objectives, risks, fees, and expenses, which can be found in the prospectus available from the fund. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Know where to hold ’em

Think about which investments make sense to hold in a tax-advantaged account and which might be better for taxable accounts. For example, it’s generally not a good idea to hold tax-free investments, such as municipal bonds, in a tax-deferred account (e.g., a 401(k), IRA, or SEP). Doing so provides no additional tax advantage to compensate you for tax-free investments’ typically lower returns. And doing so generally turns that tax-free income into income that’s taxable at ordinary income tax rates when you withdraw it from the retirement account.

Similarly, if you have mutual funds that trade actively and therefore generate a lot of short-term capital gains, it may make sense to hold them in a tax-advantaged account to defer taxes on those gains, which can occur even if the fund itself has a loss. Finally, when deciding where to hold specific investments, keep in mind that distributions from a tax-deferred retirement plan don’t qualify for the lower tax rate on capital gains and dividends.

Be selective about selling shares

If you own a stock, fund, or ETF and decide to unload some shares, you may be able to maximize your tax advantage. For a mutual fund, the most common way to calculate cost basis is to use the average cost per share. However, you can also request that specific shares be sold–for example, those bought at a certain price. Which shares you choose depends on whether you want to book capital losses to offset gains, or keep gains to a minimum to reduce the tax bite. (This only applies to shares held in a taxable account.) Be aware that you must use the same method when you sell the rest of those shares.

Example:  You have invested periodically in a stock for five years, paying various prices, and now want to sell some shares. To minimize the capital gains tax you’ll pay on them, you could decide to sell the least profitable shares, perhaps those that were only slightly lower when purchased. Or if you wanted losses to offset capital gains, you could specify shares bought above the current price.

Depending on when you bought a specific security, your broker may calculate your cost basis for you, and will typically designate a default method to be used. For stocks, the default method is likely to be FIFO (“first in, first out”); the first shares purchased are considered the first shares sold. As noted above, most mutual fund companies use the average cost per share as your default cost basis. With bonds, the default method amortizes any bond premium over the time you own the bond. You must notify your broker if you want to use a method other than the default.

Prepare Now for a Year-End Investment Review

Published on by dredheadz

Getting organized for your year-end investment review with your financial professional may help make the review process more efficient. Here are some suggestions for making your meeting as productive as possible.

Decide what you want to know

One of the benefits of a yearly investment review is that it can help you monitor your investment portfolio. A key component of most discussions is a review of how your investments have performed over the last year. Performance can mean different things to different people, depending on their individual financial goals and needs. For example, an investor who’s focused on long-term growth might define “performance” slightly differently than an investor whose primary concern isn’t overall growth but trying to maintain a portfolio that has the potential to produce current income needed to pay ordinary living expenses.

Consider in advance what types of information are most important to you and why. You may want to check on not only your portfolio’s absolute performance but also on how it fared compared to some sort of benchmark. For example, you might want to know whether any equity investments you held outperformed, matched, or under-performed a relevant index, or how your portfolio fared against a hypothetical benchmark asset allocation. (Remember that the performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific security, and indices are not available for direct investment. Also, asset allocation cannot guarantee a profit or eliminate the possibility of loss, including the loss of principal.)

Almost as important as knowing how your portfolio performed is understanding why it performed as it did. Was any over-performance or under-performance concentrated in a single asset class or a specific investment? If so, was that consistent with the asset’s typical behavior over time? Or was last year’s performance an anomaly that bears watching or taking action? Has any single investment grown so much that it now represents more of your portfolio than it should? If so, should you do a little profit-taking and redirect that money into something else?

Are any changes needed?

If your goals or concerns have changed over the last year, you’ll need to make that clear during your meeting. Your portfolio probably needs to evolve over time as your circumstances change. Making sure you’ve communicated any life changes will make it easier to adjust your portfolio accordingly and measure its performance appropriately next year.

If a change to your portfolio is suggested based on last year’s performance–either positive or negative–don’t hesitate to ask why the change is being recommended and what you might reasonably expect in terms of performance and potential risk as a result of a shift. (However, when looking at potential returns, remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.) Don’t be reluctant to ask questions if you don’t understand what’s being presented to you; a little clarification now might help prevent misunderstandings and unrealistic expectations that could have a negative impact in the future.

Also, before making any change, find out how it might affect your investing costs, both immediate and ongoing. Again, a few questions now may help prevent surprises later.

Think about the coming year

Consider whether you would benefit next April from harvesting any investment losses before the end of the year. Selling a losing position could generate a capital loss that could potentially be used to offset either capital gains or up to $3,000 of ordinary income on your federal income tax return.

If you’ve amassed substantial assets, you could explore whether you might benefit from specialized assistance in dealing with issues such as taxes, estate planning, and asset protection. Finally, give feedback on the review process itself; it can help improve next year’s session.

Note: All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.