Tag: Future Plan

The Markets (as of market close September 4, 2015)

While the stock markets gained some momentum during the last week of August, they could not maintain that positive trend for the first week of September. Each of the indices listed here lost week-on-week, with the large-cap S&P 500 dropping almost 68 points, and the Global Dow falling more than 91 points. All of these indices are now in negative territory year-to-date, led by the Dow, which lost 9.65% from the 2014 market close.

The price of gold (COMEX) dropped again, selling at about $1,122.30 by late Friday afternoon compared to $1,133.30 a week earlier. Crude oil (WTI) prices remained relatively the same, selling at $45.77/barrel by week’s end. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to $2.510 per gallon on August 31, 2015, $0.127 under last week’s price of $2.637 per gallon and $0.949 below a year ago.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

• The nation’s trade gap closed a bit in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis report on international trade of goods and services. The goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in July, down $3.3 billion from June. The narrowing of the deficit is reflective of increased exports in July ($188.5 billion, $0.8 billion more than June exports) and decreased imports ($230.4 billion, $2.5 billion less than June imports). Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $10.6 billion, or 3.6%, from the same period in 2014.
• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers at about 300 or so manufacturing firms across the United States. An index of 50 or higher signifies growth. The index for August came in at 51.1%, which evidences growth in the manufacturing sector. However, it is 1.6% lower than July, and is expanding at its slowest pace in more than two years.
• Growth continued in the non-manufacturing sector in August, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to July. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index came in at 59% for August, 1.3% lower than July’s reading of 60.3%. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 1%, the New Orders Index dropped 0.4%, and the Employment Index was 3.6% lower than July, while the Prices Index declined 2.9%.
• Construction spending has risen to its highest level in seven years, led by private construction growth in both the residential and nonresidential sectors. According to the Department of Commerce, construction spending during July 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,083.4 billion, 0.7% above the revised June estimate of $1,075.9 billion. The July figure is 13.7% above the July 2014 estimate of $952.5 billion.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report on the employment situation. Job gains occurred in health care and social assistance and in financial activities. Manufacturing and mining lost jobs. Over the year, the unemployment rate is down 1.0%, and the number of unemployed persons dropped to 1.5 million.
• Also, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.3% annual rate during the second quarter of 2015, as output increased 4.7%, and hours worked increased 1.4%. This is the best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2013. From the second quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015, productivity has increased 0.7%, reflecting increases in output and hours worked of 3.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
• The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured goods in July increased a modest $2.0 billion, or 0.4%, to $482.0 billion. This followed a 2.2% June increase. Falling energy prices and the continued strength of the dollar offset a gain in motor vehicle orders (up 4%), and durable goods orders, which increased 2.2% in July from June.
• For the week ended August 29, new claims for unemployment insurance increased 12,000 to 282,000 from the prior week’s revised level. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.7% for the week ended August 22, with 2.26 million continuing claims.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Job openings and the producer prices–two key indicators considered by the Federal Reserve in determining whether to raise interest rates–are on the docket for next week. The government’s budget deficit is expected to decrease compared to last month when the Treasury’s budget report comes out at the end of the week.

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2015)

Despite favorable economic news later in the month, the U.S. stock market was unable to recover all of its losses and closed in negative territory compared to July. Key factors in the downturn include fear that China’s economy is weakening, the steep drop in the price of oil, lackluster corporate earnings reports, and the potential for an imminent interest rate hike. Each of the major market indexes listed here dropped between 6% and 7.50% for the month. The Dow, down more than 6.50%, marked its largest percentage decline since May 2010. Year-to-date, only the Nasdaq remained in positive territory–but only barely.

At the close of August, the price of gold (COMEX) was $1,134.90. Crude oil (WTI) prices remained below $50 a barrel, selling at $47.86/barrel by month’s end.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

The Month in Review

• August saw Greece and its creditors formally agree on the terms of an 86 billion euro bailout, which may have allowed the country to remain in the eurozone. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, despite campaign promises to write off debt and ease austerity, negotiated the terms of the new deal, which ultimately included stricter austerity measures than had previously existed. With the new debt agreement formalized and his ruling party split, Tsipras resigned, paving the way for an election likely to be held sometime in September. Nevertheless, it would appear that the latest deal has eased economic tensions in Greece, at least for now.
• August also saw China’s economy continue its dramatic slowdown, causing turmoil in stock markets around the globe. When the second-largest economy contracts, other markets feel the heat. The Chinese government has responded by cutting interest rates and lowering bank reserve requirement ratios, allowing for more money to be available to borrow for investment. It is to be determined whether these measures will increase investors’ confidence concerning China’s economic growth, which is presently predicted to be at its slowest pace in over 20 years.
• The second quarter GDP continued to expand, increasing at an annual rate of 3.7% compared to the first quarter’s growth rate of 0.6%. The second quarter showed increased consumer spending, strong residential investment, and an uptick in exports. Also of note is the GDP’s price index, which came in at 2.1%–right at the Fed’s stated policy goal of 2.0% inflation.
• Speaking of the Federal Open Market Committee, it did not meet in August, but provided enough discourse on a potential interest rate increase to draw significant attention. Nevertheless, the August release of the minutes of the committee’s July meeting revealed no clear consensus among committee members as to when rates should be raised.
• August’s U.S. Treasury report for July revealed a budget deficit of $149.2 billion, attributable, in part, to a shifting of payments up to July that had previously been scheduled for August. The total budget deficit through July 2015 was $465.5 billion, or about $5.0 billion over the same ten-month period last year.
• S. retail and food services sales advance estimates for July were $446.5 billion, an increase of 0.6% from June, and up 2.4% over July 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total sales for the three-month period of May 2015 through July 2015 were up 2.3% compared to the same period in 2014.
• Inflation increased in July, but only by the slightest of margins. The overall Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July from a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the unadjusted price index for all items increased by 0.2%. However, excluding the volatile food and energy components, the index has gained 1.8% for the 12 months ended July 2015.
• S. producers in July received slightly higher prices for their goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index for goods and services rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in July, following an increase of 0.4% in June and 0.5% in May. Even with these moderate price increases, the PPI has generally declined over the past year with overall producer prices down 0.8% compared to the 12-month period ended July 2014.
• Despite lagging a month, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) provides useful information on the labor market–particularly job openings, hires, and separations. The number of job openings in June fell slightly to 5.25 million from 5.56 million in May. The decrease in the number of job openings may be due, in part, to an increase in the number of new hires, which rose 0.1% to 3.7%. Over the 12 month period ended June 2015, hires totaled 60.6 million while separations totaled 57.9 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.7 million.
• Evidencing continuing weakness in goods exports, the U.S. trade deficit for June came in at $43.8 billion–up $2.9 billion from May’s revised total. Compared to May, exports for June dropped by $136 million, while imports increased by $2.8 billion.
• Imports and exports prices continue to feel deflationary pressures. Import prices for goods bought in the United States, but produced abroad fell 0.9% in July, after recording no change in June. Export prices for goods sold abroad but produced domestically were down 0.2% following a 0.3% drop in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• The housing market has remained a consistently performing sector. Compared to June, sales of new homes rose 5.4%, while existing home sales were up 2.0%. In both cases, demand has thinned supply to around five months.
• In other developments, for the week ended August 22, there were 271,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance, and 2,269,000 continuing claims for the week ended August 15, which yielded an insured unemployment rate of 1.7%. Compared to last month, the national average retail regular gasoline price dropped from $2.745 per gallon on July 27, 2015, to $2.637 per gallon on August 24–a fairly significant decrease of $0.108. Overall, consumer confidence rebounded in August, increasing to 101.5 compared to 90.9 in July, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.

Eye on the Month Ahead

China’s tumbling stock market clearly impacted U.S. stocks in August. Market recovery in September will be tied, at least in part, to whether China can boost its sagging economy. The results of the FOMC meeting in September may finally provide a firm indication of when interest rates will be increased and by how much. It appears that as the third quarter comes to a close, market volatility may continue.

The Markets (as of market close August 28, 2015)

The latest stock sell-off in China sent U.S. stocks reeling at the beginning of the week. However, good economic news spurred by a favorable GDP report shifted momentum as stocks rallied to close ahead of last week. For the week, the Dow and Nasdaq were the biggest gainers. However, of the major markets listed here, only the Nasdaq remains in positive territory year-to-date.

The price of gold (COMEX) lost a bit, selling at about $1,133.30 by late Friday afternoon compared to $1,159.90 a week earlier. Crude oil (WTI) prices ended the week up, selling at $45.33/barrel by week’s end. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased from $2.716 per gallon on August 17, 2015, to 2.637 on August 24–a drop of $0.079–$0.817 below a year ago.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

• Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.7% in the second quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6%. The latest GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than was available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. The second quarter’s increase was driven, in part, by an upturn in business investment (spending on construction, equipment, and R&D), exports, and personal consumption.
• Personal income enjoyed a healthy increase last month. However, consumers appeared to focus on saving rather than spending. Compared to June, personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.4%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5%, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $37.4 billion, or 0.3%. It’s important to note that this data came before fears of a slowing Chinese economy, and the downturn in oil prices.
• For the week ended August 22, new claims for unemployment insurance dropped 6,000 to 271,000. For the week ended August 15, the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7%, representing about 2.27 million continuing claims for unemployment insurance.
• Consumer confidence rebounded in August from July, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. For August, the index came in at 101.5, compared to July’s 91.0. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board said, “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was considerably more upbeat, primarily due to a more favorable appraisal of the labor market.”
• The housing market continues to flourish. Sales of new single-family houses in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 507,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.4% above the revised June rate of 481,000 and 25.8% above the July 2014 estimate of 403,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2015 was $285,900; the average sales price was $361,600. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of new houses for sale at the end of July was 218,000. Demand has picked up as the supply of available new homes for sale has dropped to 5.2 months, down from 5.3 months in June, and 6.1 months at the end of July 2014.
• The National Association of Realtors® reported that pending home sales based on contract signings for existing homes (not new construction) increased 0.5% in July compared to June. The index, at 110.9, is 7.4% above July 2014.

Eye on the Week Ahead

China has been proactive in trying to quell the economic turmoil that has impacted its own stock market and the markets of other countries, including the United States. Will the stock markets recover, or are we in for what may be a legitimate market correction? The first week of September focuses on industrial productivity, international trade, and the employment situation.

The Markets

Stock markets closed the holiday week on a sour note for the second week in a row. While several domestic indicators have been favorable, such as housing and unemployment, the markets across the board continued to lose value on the heels of Greece closing its banks for a week and missing a debt payment, coupled with China cutting lending rates in an attempt to support its sagging economy, while Puerto Rico has indicated it can’t pay its bills. The S&P 500, the Dow, Nasdaq, the Russell 2000, and the Global Dow all lost more than 1% compared to their respective closes last week. Year-to-date, the Dow has reached negative territory, down 0.52%.

The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to $2.801 per gallon on June 29, 2015, $0.011 under last week’s price and $0.903 below a year ago. Gold closed Friday’s trading period selling at $1,167.80, down $5.40 from a week ago ($1,173.20).

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

• Furthering a positive trend in the housing market, the number of pending home sales continued to rise in May reaching their highest level in over nine years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The pending home sales index, which is based on the volume of signed residential contracts for existing homes, jumped 0.9% in May from April, and is at its highest level (112.6) since April 2006.
• The U.S. Census Bureau reports that construction spending in May rose 0.8% compared to April. Building of manufacturing facilities, up 6.2%, outpaced residential construction, which increased by a moderate 0.3%.
• Following last week’s favorable consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index reached 101.4 in June, up from 94.6 in May. According to the report, consumers’ confidence in the economy is growing as an increasing percentage of those polled thought business conditions were good (26.4%) and starting jobs were plentiful (21.4%), while the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose from 16.0% to 18.5%.
• Hit with weak exports, the manufacturing sector continues to trend downward. New orders for manufactured goods in May, down nine of the last ten months, decreased $4.5 billion or 1.0% to $470.5 billion, the Census Bureau reported last week.
• June was not much better for the business sector. Data indicated a tempered improvement in overall business conditions across the U. S. manufacturing sector, with softer output growth offsetting a slight pickup in the pace of new business gains and job creation according to reports from the Institute for Supply Management and Markit’s U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™. Both indexes registered over 50.0, which indicates expansion. PMI came in at 53.6 in June, slightly down from 54.0 in May, while June’s ISM index registered 53.5 compared to 52.8 in May. However, each survey noted that export orders are still lagging.
• According to the Energy Information Administration report, gasoline production increased for the week ending June 26, averaging over 10.0 million barrels per day. Compared to the previous week, crude oil inventories were up 2.4 million barrels, partly attributable to increasing crude oil imports, which were up by 748,000 barrels per day. At 465.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.
• According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report for June, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2% to 5.3%, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 375,000 to 8.3 million. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing. On the other hand, seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance increased 10,000 to 281,000 for the week ending June 27, although the number of initial claims is significantly lower compared to this time last year (313,000).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The recent gains achieved in the stock market were virtually wiped out this past week, primarily due to the financial upheaval involving Greece. There is plenty of uncertainty relating to what will happen after Greece’s June 5th referendum. How will the markets, domestically and abroad, react to the vote? Of particular interest this week will be the FOMC meeting and whether the committee is able to provide any indication as to when they will raise interest rates.

The Markets

The markets responded favorably following the Federal Reserve’s announcement that interest rates would not be raised next month. Both the large-cap Dow and S&P 500 closed ahead of last week. But the biggest weekly gainers were the Nasdaq, which gained 1.3%, and the Russell 2000, which closed the week 1.55% better than last Friday’s close. The national average for gas prices was $2.835–up $0.055 from last week. Gold finished the week up $21 from last week, selling at $1,200.20.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

• Economic activity has been “expanding moderately” according to the statement from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. But short-term interest rates will remain as is, at least through the next monthly meeting. The FOMC noted that the “pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady,” there has been growth in household spending, and the “housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft.” Inflation continued to run below the committee’s longer-run objective (2%). Ultimately, the committee determined that the current federal funds rate is appropriate pending progress “toward maximum employment and price stability.” Before federal fund rates will be increased, the committee “would like to see more decisive evidence that moderate pace of economic activity can be sustained,” according to Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen.
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 267,000 for the week ending June 13, which is a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week. The advanced seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7% for the week ending June 6, while the total number of insured unemployment claimants was 2.22 million, a decrease of 50,000 from the previous week. Evidencing signs of consistent job creation, new claims have remained under 300,000 over the past 15 weeks–the longest such stretch since 2000, according to the Wall Street Journal. Nevertheless, “at 5.5%, we have an unemployment rate that still exceeds the (Federal Reserve) committee’s best attempts to estimate what is a normal unemployment rate for this economy,” according to Chairwoman Yellen.
• The Federal Reserve reported on Monday that industrial production decreased 0.2% in May after falling 0.5% in April. Manufacturing output decreased 0.2% in May and was little changed, on net, from its level in January. Meager industrial production is likely due to weak exports and a relatively strong dollar, which could further strengthen if interest rates are raised later this year.
• Housing starts dropped off in May, but the number of residential building permits soared according to the latest report from the Census Bureau. Privately owned housing starts (e.g., the actual start of construction of a new building) in May were 11.1% below the revised April estimate, but are 5.1% above the May 2014 rate. On the other hand, building permits for housing units were 11.8% above the revised April rate, and 25.4% higher than May 2014. This increase in anticipated new construction is cause for builder optimism according to the National Association of Home Builders. Their housing market index rose 5 points to a reading of 59 for June.
• The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in May over April, which is its largest monthly increase since February 2013. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the largest cost increase belonged to energy, particularly gasoline, which increased 10.4%. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1% in May following a 0.3% increase in April.

Eye on the Week Ahead

How will the markets respond to results of the FOMC meeting and Chairwoman Yellen’s speech? Will Greece and its creditors reach a bailout resolution? Throughout the second quarter of 2015, the housing market has been consistently trending upward. Will this week’s reports on new and existing home sales show continued growth?

The Markets

Reports from this past week revealed that the number of job openings is increasing, and the federal deficit and crude oil inventories are shrinking, while consumers are spending more of their hard-earned money. Unfortunately, news out of Europe is that negotiations between Greece and its creditors are regressing with default seemingly inevitable. The Dow, which had crept above 18000 during the week, closed at 17898.84, while the S&P 500 moved very little from last week’s close. The Nasdaq lost 0.34%, but remains ahead of the major indexes year-to-date. The Global Dow closed the week ahead of last week, while the euro remained relatively stable against the dollar, finishing the week at $1.1268. Crude oil closed ahead of last week at $59.94 as did gold, which reached $1180.50 as of the end of trading on Friday.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

• The number of job openings rose to 5.376 million on the last business day of April, the highest since December 2000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The job openings rate for April 2015 was 3.7%, up from 3.5% in March. Open jobs could mean a spike in wages as employers look to fill those positions.
• According to the U.S. Energy and Information Administration for the June 5 week, crude oil inventories dropped 6.8 million barrels, while crude oil imports were down by 750,000 barrels per day. However, refineries increased production, averaging 10 million barrels per day. At the pumps, the national average retail regular gasoline price remained about the same at $2.78 per gallon, $0.894 lower than this time last year.
• Through May the federal deficit for fiscal 2015 was $365.2 billion, which is about 16.3% lower compared to the same period last year ($436.4 billion) according to the monthly Treasury statement. Government receipts are running 9% ahead of last year, although government spending is up about 6% as well.
• Consumers are spending more according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which announced that advance estimates of sales of U.S. retail and food services for May increased 1.2% from April, and 2.7% above May 2014. Big movers were motor vehicle and parts dealers and food services and drinking places, each of which experienced increased sales over May 2014.
• In the week ending June 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits was 279,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 277,000, according to the Department of Labor. Yet, this is a far cry from March 2009, when initial claims peaked at 665,000.
• Reflective of higher oil prices, the costs for imported goods increased 1.3% in May following declines in each of the previous 10 months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that the price of U.S. exports rose 0.6% in May, the largest increase since March 2014. Still, import prices dropped 9.6% on the year. Overall, the strong dollar is making imports cheaper while softness in foreign economies is keeping down export prices.
• In May, the prices producers received for their goods and services increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% from April according to Friday’s Labor Department report. Still, compared to a year earlier, producer prices are down 1.1%. Next week’s consumer price report may shed more light on inflationary trends.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Housing starts, business production, and jobs reports will be available next week. But most of the attention will be focused on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee announcements and forecasts, along with the Federal Reserve Chair’s press conference. We may have a better idea of when interest rates will increase by the end of the week.

The Markets

Despite drops in consumer confidence, import and export prices, crude oil inventories, and producer prices, the stock market rallied at the end of the week to post positive gains across the board lead by the S&P 500, which closed at an all-time high. However, the biggest gainers for the week were the Nasdaq (0.89%) and the Russell 2000, which gained 0.73% over last week. The domestic market’s positive close to the week may be in response to the rather sluggish economic news, which has increased sentiment that a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is not in the immediate future.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

• The Treasury Department reported that government receipts in April reached an all-time high. Total receipts came in at $471.8 billion, which created a surplus of $156.7 billion, the largest surplus in the last seven years. Of course, April is generally the biggest tax month of the year, with the bulk of the government’s receipts coming from individual income taxes ($288 billion). Through the first seven months of the budget, the deficit ($282.8 billion) is about 7.7% lower compared to this time last year.
• Compared to February, the March nonfarm jobs market saw fewer job openings (4.99 million vs. 5.14 million) according to the Department of Labor’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Yet the number of unemployment claims continued to decrease, down 1,000 for the week ending May 9, while the four-week moving average (271,750) is the lowest level since April 22, 2000. It appears that while employers aren’t hiring at a brisk pace, they’re also not letting employees go either.
• Continuing a trend, U.S. import prices fell 0.3%, while prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7% in April. Compared to last April, import prices are down 10.7% with export prices dropping 6.3%.
• April also saw producer prices fall 0.4%, while industrial production decreased 0.3% for its fifth consecutive monthly loss.
• The Census Bureau’s latest report for April showed virtually no change in advance estimates of retail and food sales compared to March. Sales of autos, furniture, electronics/appliances, and food/beverages all declined, as did department store sales.
• For a second week in a row, crude oil inventories fell, a decrease of 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. Nevertheless, at 484.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.
• Last quarter’s sluggish economy coupled with increasing gas prices at the pumps may have caused a distinct drop in consumer confidence, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary index of consumer sentiment for May. The 7.3% decrease from April (95.9 to 88.6) is the largest decrease since December 2012.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The week begins with housing data. Will this lagging sector begin to gain momentum during the spring season? And will jobless claims reports continue to show a positive trend?

The Markets

It was a clean sweep for the Nasdaq as it posted gains on all four days of a market week shortened by Martin Luther King Day. As the Nasdaq was moving into positive territory for the year, the other major indices lost ground on Friday, at least in part due to the uncertainty caused by the death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, but all posted solid gains for the week. The markets generally ignored signs of an economic slowdown in China and the continuing slide in oil prices.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

• While “deflategate” dominated American airwaves last week, concern about a deflationary spiral of a different kind caused the European Central Bank to announce a qualitative easing program worth at least €1.1 trillion ($1.3 trillion). The ECB hopes this monetary stimulus will increase investment and consumption, and turn around Europe’s stagnating economy.
• Greek drama redux: Greece’s anti-austerity opposition party Syriza, led by Alexis Tsipras, topped vote-getters in Sunday’s election, but fell just two seats short of the number necessary for a parliamentary majority, leading Syriza to announce it would form a coalition government with another anti-austerity party, the Independent Greeks. At risk, with the anti-bailout Syriza party in control, is Greece’s willingness to go along with conditions imposed by its creditors after bailouts in 2011 and 2013, which could prompt fresh concerns about default and a “Grexit” from the eurozone.
• Despite low inventories, existing-home sales bounced back in December and climbed above an annual pace of 5 million sales for the sixth time in seven months, according to the National Association of Realtors^®. Existing-home sales rose 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in December, up from 4.92 million in November, and up 3.5% from last December, the third straight month of year-over-year increases. Median home prices for 2014 rose to $208,500, their highest level since 2007, but total sales fell 3.1% from 2013.
• Meanwhile, the Department of Commerce announced that new residential construction rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,089,000, a 4.4% increase over November, and a 5.3% increase over December 2013. Single family home starts rose 7.2% in December, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 728,000, the best since 2007.
• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index^® for the United States increased 0.5% in December, following a 0.4% increase in November, and a 0.6% increase in October. Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, said that “December’s gain in the LEI was driven by a majority of its components, suggesting the short-term outlook is getting brighter and the economy continues to build momentum.”

Eye on the Week Ahead

In what should be a very interesting week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve to see how the European stimulus plan might impact the Fed’s plans for U.S. interest rates. And investors will be closely watching for any developments in Saudi Arabia and Greece. Meanwhile, earnings season continues in high gear, with major companies like Apple and Microsoft reporting.