Health-Care Reform Changes Affecting Seniors

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, enacted in 2010, contains some provisions that directly affect our nation’s elder population. If you’re a retiree or a senior, you may be concerned about how these reforms may affect your access to health care and insurance benefits. The following is an overview of health-care reform legislation provisions you should be aware of.

Medicare spending cuts

Not surprisingly, the concerns of retirees and seniors generally center on potential cuts in Medicare benefits. At the outset, the new legislation does not affect Medicare’s guaranteed benefits. However, two goals of the new health-care legislation are to slow the increasing cost of Medicare premiums paid by beneficiaries, and to ensure that Medicare will not run out of funds.

To help achieve these goals, cuts in Medicare spending will occur over a ten-year period, beginning in 2011, particularly targeting Medicare Advantage programs–Medicare benefits provided through private insurers but subsidized by the federal government. These cuts are intended to bring the cost of federal subsidies for Medicare Advantage plans in line with costs for comparable benefits for Medicare beneficiaries. If you participate in a Medicare Advantage plan, these cuts could reduce or eliminate some of the extra benefits your plan may offer, such as dental or vision care, and your premiums may increase. But Medicare Advantage plans cannot reduce primary Medicare benefits, nor can they impose deductibles and co-payments that are greater than what is allowed under the traditional Medicare program for comparable benefits.

Benefits added to Medicare

The legislation also improves some traditional Medicare benefits. For example, prior to the new legislation, traditional Medicare paid 80% of the cost for a one-time physical for new enrollees within the first 12 months of enrollment. But beginning in 2011, you will receive free annual wellness exams; preventive care tests such as screenings for high blood pressure, diabetes, and certain forms of cancer; and a personalized prevention assessment and plan to address particular health risk factors you may encounter.

Medicare Part D drug program changes

If you are a Medicare Part D beneficiary, you may be surprised to find that you have to pay for the entire cost of prescription drugs out-of-pocket after reaching a gap in your annual coverage, referred to as the “donut hole.” You could pay up to an additional $3,610 out-of-pocket for medicines after reaching an initial threshold of $2,830 in total prescription drug costs (including Part D payments, beneficiary co-pays, and deductibles). But, in 2010, beneficiaries falling in the donut hole received a $250 rebate, and, in 2011, these beneficiaries received a 50% discount on brand-name drugs. Also beginning in 2011, a reduction in co-payments for generic drugs within the donut hole will be phased in, and, beginning in 2013, a reduction in co-payments for brand-name drugs will be phased in. Essentially, by 2020, a combination of federal subsidies and a reduction in co-payments will reduce your out-of-pocket costs for medications in the gap from 100% to 25%. However, individuals with annual incomes greater than $85,000 and couples with incomes exceeding $170,000, will see their Part D premiums increase as the federal subsidy offsetting some of the cost of Medicare Part D premiums is reduced.

If you are a full-benefit dual eligible beneficiary (eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare) receiving institutional care, such as in a nursing home facility, you do not owe any co-payments for Part D-covered prescriptions. However, if you’re dually eligible and receiving long-term care services at home or in a day-care community-based setting, you are subject to Part D drug co-payments. Beginning in 2012, the new legislation removes this imbalance by eliminating co-payments for individuals receiving services at home or in a community setting.

Also, beginning in 2011, the time period during which Part D and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries can make changes to their coverage is extended and runs from October 15 to December 7. This extension should provide more time for you to consider your options while ensuring that all changes are properly incorporated into the plan for the following year.

Coverage for those under age 65

You may be between the ages of 55 and 65 and do not have health insurance provided by your employer, or if covered, find that your cost for insurance is substantial. If you’re in this predicament, the health-care legislation provides you with opportunities for affordable health insurance.

By 2014, state-based American Health Benefit Exchanges will be created, through which you can purchase affordable health insurance coverage. The Exchanges will serve as a conduit for health insurance providers to offer health plans with different benefits, co-insurance limits, and premium costs. You can then compare the costs of various plans and benefits. If you can’t afford an Exchange plan, you may be eligible for a government subsidy based on income and family size.

Increased access to home-based care

Often, people with disabilities or illnesses would rather receive care at home instead of at a nursing home. The health-care reform law provides for programs and incentives for greater access to in-home care. The Community First Choice Option is available for states to add to their Medicaid programs, beginning in 2011. This option provides benefits to Medicaid-eligible individuals for community-based care instead of placement in a nursing home.

In addition, the State Balancing Incentive Program, also beginning in 2011 and running through October 2015, provides increased federal funds to qualifying states that offer Medicaid benefits to disabled individuals seeking long-term care services at home, or in the community, instead of in a nursing home. In order to be eligible, a state must spend less than 50% of its total Medicaid expenditures for at-home or community-based long-term care services and supports. The state must also agree to use the additional federal funds to provide new or expanded non-institutionally-based long-term care services.

Nursing home transparency

The Independence at Home demonstration program, available in 2012, is a test program that provides Medicare beneficiaries with chronic conditions the opportunity to receive primary care services at home. This is intended to reduce costs associated with emergency room visits and hospital readmissions, and generally improve the efficiency of care.

While in-home care may be a preference, often a nursing facility is the better or only alternative. In the past, consumers had very little information available in order to compare nursing homes. The health-care legislation addresses the need for more transparency regarding nursing facilities. For example, nursing homes are required to disclose their owners, operators, and financers. The government will also collect and report information about how well a particular nursing home is staffed, including the number of hours of nursing care residents receive, staff turnover rates, and how much facilities spend on wages and benefits.

What I’m Watching This Week – 10 November 2014

The Markets

In the wake of the midterm election results that gave Republicans control of both houses of Congress, domestic equities took a break from their recent volatility. Though the S&P 500’s increase was relatively modest, it still managed to regain the 2,000 level and go on to set three fresh record highs in the process. The Dow industrials not only set their own new record but also had the week’s biggest gain, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 ended the week basically flat. Declines in oil prices continued to make headlines as the price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $80 a barrel.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 11/7 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17390.52 17573.93 1.05% 6.02%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4630.74 4632.53 .04% 10.92%
S&P 500 1848.36 2018.05 2031.89 .69% 9.93%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1173.51 1173.32 -.02% .83%
Global Dow 2484.10 2527.85 2516.73 -.44% 1.31%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.35% 2.32% -3 bps -72 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The U.S. unemployment rate edged down 0.1% to 5.8% in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy added 214,000 jobs, most of them in restaurants, retail, and health care. The new jobs figure was slightly lower than the 222,000 monthly average so far this year. Meanwhile, October’s 3-cent increase brought the average hourly wage to $24.57; that average is up just under 2% over the last 12 months.
  • Saudi Arabia announced it would cut its price for oil sold to U.S. customers and raise prices for Asian customers. On top of increased Alaskan oil production during October, that caused the price of crude oil to drop to its lowest level in more than two years. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it expects demand for OPEC crude oil to fall nearly 2 million barrels a day to 28.2 million barrels a day by the end of 2017.
  • Lower than expected growth in Germany, France, and Italy led the European Commission to cut its growth forecast for next year. The commission said it now sees the eurozone’s 2014 GDP increasing by 0.8% rather than the 1.2% forecast last spring, while the 28-member EU as a whole is now expected to grow 1.3%. The forecast for 2015 is 1.1% growth for the eurozone and 1.5% for the EU. Eurozone inflation is seen stalling at 0.5% this year and 0.8% next year–far below the European Central Bank’s target 2%. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged, though ECB President Mario Draghi once again said fresh stimulus measures will be adopted if necessary.
  • A sluggish global economy also affected the U.S. trade deficit, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A 1.5% decline in exports to the rest of the world was a major reason for September’s nearly 7% increase in the trade gap.
  • S. manufacturing activity declined 0.6% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index suggested a course reversal in October; the index rose 2.4%, and the 59% reading represented the 65th straight month of expansion.
  • S. construction spending was down 0.4% in September as private and public construction fell 0.1% and 1.3% respectively. The Commerce Department said it was the fourth straight monthly decline in private construction spending.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Data from the retail sector will dominate what little economic information is on tap next week. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report also may get extra attention for its implications for the employment picture.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

What I’m Watching This Week – 3 November 2014

The Markets

A robust U.S. GDP reading coupled with the prospect of greater economic stimulus in Japan and additional positive corporate earnings reports helped drive both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 to new record highs. The small caps of the Russell 2000 saw their third straight week of solid gains, which gave the index a positive year-to-date return once again.

Gold tumbled nearly $60 an ounce, hurt in part by the promise of additional monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan. And the benchmark 10-year Treasury retreated as investors regained an appetite for equities risk.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/31 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16805.41 17390.52 3.48% 4.91%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4483.72 4630.74 3.28% 10.87%
S&P 500 1848.36 1964.58 2018.05 2.72% 9.18%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1118.82 1173.51 4.89% .85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2470.50 2527.85 2.32% 1.76%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.29% 2.35% 6 bps -69 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% during the third quarter, according to the initial estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was slightly less than Q2’s 4.6%, but still much stronger than during 2014’s first quarter.
  • As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee finally called a halt to new bond purchases, which have helped support the economy for the last six years by making credit easier to get. The statement said that despite improvements in the labor market and general economy, the committee sees inflation being held in check by lower energy prices. Therefore, it still anticipates the Fed funds interest rate will remain at its current level for “a considerable time.” However, that timetable could be accelerated by unanticipated upticks in inflation and/or employment (or pushed back if either declines).
  • As Fed bond purchases came to an end, the Bank of Japan went in the opposite direction, unexpectedly announcing it will expand its securities purchases. The move is designed to try to reduce the potential for deflation (Japan’s 1% annual inflation rate is far below the central bank’s 2% target). The added buying could make Japanese exports cheaper and help the country’s economy recover from the effects of a sales tax increase in the spring.
  • Durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, much of that was due to a 3.7% decline in the typically volatile transportation sector; excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.2%.
  • Home prices rose in August, but the annual growth rate was the slowest in almost two years. The 0.2% increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index represented a 5.6% annual increase from the previous August, down from July’s 6.7%.
  • Despite a 0.2% increase in personal income in the United States during September, personal consumption fell by an equal amount, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The drop in personal consumption was the first monthly decline since January.

Eye on the Week Ahead

With quantitative easing officially at an end, what’s left of the Q3 corporate earnings season could receive more attention. And as the Fed watches the labor market closely to determine the timing of rate increases, investors will do the same with Friday’s jobs report. The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections also could influence the mood of the markets.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Monthly Market Review – October 2014

The Markets

October lived up to its reputation for volatility as triple-digit intraday swings in the Dow became almost commonplace. Despite being spooked for much of the month–at one point the S&P 500 was down almost 8% from its most recent high–both the S&P and the Dow industrials rallied strongly to end the month at fresh all-time records. Generally encouraging corporate earnings from U.S. companies, a strong Q3 GDP, and increased central bank support overseas helped equities markets overcome fears about the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and global concerns about slowing growth and the threat of Ebola.

Increased U.S. energy resources and reduced global demand meant that oil prices continued to drop, ending the month at roughly $80 a barrel. The dollar maintained its September gains against a basket of six foreign currencies; since oil is traded in dollars, a stronger dollar also helped keep oil prices in check. Meanwhile, after a bounce at mid-month, the price of gold plummeted to roughly $1,170 an ounce. Not surprisingly, the volatility in equities caused the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury to fall briefly to its lowest level since June 2013 as investors sought the relative safety of Treasury securities.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Month As of 10/31 Month Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17042.90 17390.52 2.04% 4.91%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4493.39 4630.74 3.06% 10.87%
S&P 500 1848.36 1972.29 2018.05 2.32% 9.18%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1101.68 1173.51 6.52% .85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2534.47 2527.85 -.26% 1.76%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.52% 2.35% -17 bps -69 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

The Month in Review

  • The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% during the third quarter, according to the initial estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was slightly less than Q2’s 4.6%, but still much stronger than during 2014’s first quarter.
  • The 248,000 new jobs created in September helped cut the U.S. unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.9%; it’s the first time since July 2008 that joblessness has been below 6%. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said hiring during the prior two months was stronger than previously thought. However, at least some of the decline in the unemployment rate resulted from 97,000 people, such as retiring baby boomers, dropping out of the labor force. That brought the percentage of people in the workforce to 62.7%–the lowest participation rate since 1978.
  • As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee halted new bond purchases, which have helped support the economy for the last six years by making credit easier to get. The statement said that despite improvements in the labor market and the overall economy, the committee sees inflation being held in check by lower energy prices. Therefore, it still anticipates the Fed funds interest rate will remain at its current level for “a considerable time.” However, that timetable could be accelerated by unanticipated upticks in inflation and/or employment (or pushed back if either declines).
  • As Fed bond purchases came to an end, the Bank of Japan went in the opposite direction, announcing it will expand its securities purchases. The move is designed to prevent potential deflation (Japan’s 1% annual inflation rate is far below the central bank’s 2% target). The added buying could help make Japanese exports cheaper.
  • Eurozone manufacturing output saw its largest monthly decline since late 2008 in August, according to the European Union’s statistical agency. The 4.3% decline in German industrial production was especially unsettling, and September’s 0.3% annual inflation rate in the eurozone–the lowest level in five years–raised concerns about the possibility of deflation. To help combat that weakness, the European Central Bank will expand its bond purchases to include asset-backed securities and certain bank bonds, but declined to lower its key interest rate, at least for the time being.
  • China’s growth rate, while still robust compared to the rest of the world, slowed to 7.3% during the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics–below the 7.5% official target for annual growth. Real estate prices and sales continued to be a soft spot. To try to jump-start lending, China’s central bank plans to inject roughly $33 billion into its banking system.
  • Data on the U.S. housing market was generally encouraging. September’s 2.4% increase in existing-home sales represented the fastest growth of 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors®. New home sales also were up 0.2%, which put them 17% higher than in September 2013, and the Commerce Department said both housing starts and building permits were up for the month. However, home prices were a different story. The 0.2% increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index in August represented the slowest annual growth rate in almost two years.
  • U.S. inflation continued to be well-contained. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September, which left the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% for the last 12 months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said increases in food and housing outweighed a 0.7% drop in energy costs. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell 0.1% in September, largely because of declines in both food and energy costs, though wholesale prices overall are 1.6% higher than in September 2013.
  • Retail sales in the United States slipped 0.3% in September, though the Commerce Department said they were 4.3% ahead of a year earlier. The biggest declines were seen in building and garden supplies, clothing, and nonstore retailers, all of which were down more than 1% during the month.
  • U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, much of that was due to a 3.7% decline in the typically volatile transportation sector; excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.2%.

Eye on the Month Ahead

With the Fed’s quantitative easing officially at an end and monetary policy meetings on hold until December, equities markets may begin to focus on what’s left of earnings season as well as the jobs and inflation data that will affect future Fed actions. The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections also could influence the mood of the markets.

What I’m Watching This Week – 27 October 2014

The Markets

Relief at last: Investors finally regained some appetite for risk as equities got a break from the recent wave of selling. After four straight weeks of losses, the S&P 500 saw a strong bounce. However, the Nasdaq’s rebound was even bigger and the small caps of the Russell 2000 saw their second consecutive week of robust gains. Though the Dow industrials lagged the other three domestic indices, the rally brought the Dow back into positive territory for the year. The Global Dow also recovered from its slump, nearly managing to break even for the year.

The strong showing in equities helped send the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield up as prices fell. Meanwhile, the price of oil stabilized in the low $80s

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/24 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16380.41 16805.41 2.59% 1.38%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4258.44 4483.72 5.29% 7.35%
S&P 500 1848.36 1886.76 1964.58 4.12% 6.29%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1082.33 1118.82 3.37% -3.85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2409.20 2470.50 2.54% -.55%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.22% 2.29% 7 bps -75 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Sales of existing homes jumped 2.4% during September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. That’s the highest pace of 2014, though the number of sales was 1.7% lower than in the previous September. The $209,700 median sale price was 5.6% higher than a year earlier.
  • Meanwhile, new home sales were up 0.2% in September; the Commerce Department said that put them 17% higher than in September 2013.
  • Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that left the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% for the last 12 months–a level that might give the Federal Reserve some leeway to keep interest rates low. Increases in food and housing outweighed a 0.7% drop in energy costs.
  • China’s growth rate, while still robust compared to the rest of the world, slowed during the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The 7.3% increase in the country’s gross domestic product was slightly lower than Q2’s 7.5% and below the official target for annual growth (also 7.5%). Real estate prices and sales continued to be a soft spot in the Chinese economy.
  • After subjecting 150 European banks to annual stress tests, the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority said only 12 of them needed to raise additional capital as protection against a worst-case scenario. Italy had the most problem banks, with Greece and Cyprus tied for second.
  • Similar stress tests for U.S. banks to be conducted by the Federal Reserve next year will measure how well they would withstand a sharp deterioration in the corporate bond market, especially high-yield bonds issued by highly indebted companies. As in previous years, the tests also will gauge exposure to threats from a variety of factors that include sharp declines in the job market and economic growth, a jump in oil prices to $110 a barrel, and a 60% drop in the stock market. Banks that fail the test could be restricted in their ability to pay dividends or buy back stocks until they address the deficiencies.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Once again, all eyes will be on the Fed as quantitative easing is expected to come to an end. And with recent volatility in the equities markets suggesting investor uncertainty, the first estimate of Q3 gross domestic product is likely to be significant. Also, the release of stress tests conducted on European banks could affect investor perception of the financial system there.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

What I’m Watching This Week – 13 October 2014

The Markets

Concerns about signs of weaker growth abroad seemed to outweigh domestic corporate earnings reports last week as volatility went extreme. The Dow industrials saw triple-digit swings four days in a row that wiped out all of the index’s year-to-date gains, and both the Dow and the S&P 500 had their worst weeks since May 2012. By the end of the week, the S&P was down 5% from its most recent high (a 10% drop is considered a correction). Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell solidly into correction territory, ending the week down almost 13% from its most recent high in March. The Global Dow also turned negative year-to-date.

The volatility sent investors once again seeking the relative security of U.S. Treasuries. As the price of the benchmark 10-year note has risen, the decline in its yield has accelerated in each of the last four weeks; the 10-year yield ended last week at its lowest level since June 2013.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/10 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17009.69 16544.10 -2.74% -.20%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4475.62 4276.24 -4.45% 2.39%
S&P 500 1848.36 1967.90 1906.13 -3.14% 3.13%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1104.74 1053.32 -4.65% -9.48%
Global Dow 2484.10 2493.99 2430.85 -2.53% -2.14%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.45% 2.31% -14 bps -73 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee showed that members are worried about slowing global growth. The potential domestic impact of dollar strength, which could become more problematic when interest rates increase, also was a concern, as a stronger dollar could make U.S. exports more expensive and weigh on the domestic economy. Members also wrestled with how to communicate any shift in the committee’s expectations about when a rate increase might occur.
  • European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the already sluggish European economy seems to be slowing further. Coupled with discouraging economic reports out of Germany–exports fell 5.8% in August, and manufacturing output and new orders also were down–Draghi’s statement raised concerns about the financial health of Europe as a whole. To add to the gloom, the International Monetary Fund also lowered its outlook for global growth next year, though its U.S. forecast was more optimistic.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The question of the week will be whether last week’s volatility exhausted negative sentiment or there’s more to come. If domestic Q3 earnings reports and corporate guidance are robust, they might help provide some counterbalance to global pessimism. However, many large U.S. corporations earn a large percentage of their profits overseas; if forward guidance tends to be negative, that could have the opposite effect. Options expiration at week’s end also could affect volatility.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

What I’m Watching This Week – 6 October 2014

The Markets

For the second straight week, a Friday rally after encouraging employment numbers couldn’t outweigh equities’ losses earlier in the week. However, it did manage to rescue the Russell 2000 from a brief dip into correction territory (a correction is generally considered to be 10% down from the most recent high). Once again, the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 outpaced the small caps, while equities’ recent slump translated into gains for the price of the benchmark 20-year Treasury.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/3 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17113.15 17009.69 -.60% 2.61%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4512.19 4475.62 -.81% 7.16%
S&P 500 1848.36 1982.85 1967.90 -.75% 6.47%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1119.33 1104.74 -1.30% -5.06%
Global Dow 2484.10 2551.32 2493.99 -2.25% .40%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.54% 2.45% -9 bps -59 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The 248,000 new jobs created in September helped cut the U.S. unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.9%; it’s the first time since July 2008 that joblessness has been below 6%. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said hiring during the prior two months was stronger than previously thought. However, at least some of the decline in the unemployment rate resulted from 97,000 people dropping out of the labor force (for example, retiring baby boomers). That brought the percentage of people in the workforce to 62.7%–the lowest participation rate since 1978.
  • Though home prices measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index continued to rise in July, the pace slowed significantly. Year-over-year gains were down in 19 of the 20 cities, and monthly increases were smaller in 17 cities. Nevertheless, the index was 6.7% ahead of a year earlier, and prices rose 0.6% during the month.
  • The European Central Bank declined to make any further cuts to interest rates until it sees the impact of bond purchases scheduled to begin this month, including sovereign bonds from Greece and Cyprus. However, President Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB stands ready to adopt further stimulus measures if necessary.
  • Both personal income and consumption were up in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in private wages and salaries was almost double that of July, pushing personal income up 0.3%. Personal consumption–one of the Fed’s favorite measures of inflationary pressure–rose 0.5%. That increased consumption helped cut the savings rate from 5.6% to 5.4%.
  • The failure of China’s manufacturing sector to rebound in September from the previous month’s low level fanned concerns about global growth. HSBC Corp.’s Purchasing Managers’ Index remained at 50.2–barely above the level that would represent contraction.
  • The U.S. services sector continued to grow in September, but at a slightly slower pace. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index nudged downward one point from August’s record level to 58.6.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Q3 earnings season will have its unofficial kickoff when Alcoa reports its results after Wednesday’s market close. Discussions of what should happen after the anticipated end of quantitative easing will be scrutinized when minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Rollover of After-Tax Dollars from 401(k) Plans

Background

Here’s the dilemma. You have a traditional 401(k) that contains both after-tax and pre-tax dollars. You’d like to receive a distribution from the plan, convert only the after-tax dollars to a Roth IRA, and roll the pre-tax dollars into a traditional IRA. (By rolling over/converting only the after-tax dollars to a Roth IRA, you avoid paying any income tax on the conversion.)

For example, let’s say your 401(k) plan account balance is $10,000, consisting of $8,000 of pre-tax dollars and $2,000 of after-tax dollars. Can you simply request a total distribution of $10,000, instructing the trustee to directly roll the $8,000 of pre-tax dollars to a traditional IRA and the remaining $2,000 of after-tax dollars to a Roth IRA?

In the past, many trustees allowed you to do just that. But in recent years the IRS had suggested that this result could be achieved only with indirect (60-day) rollovers, not direct rollovers. The legal basis for this IRS position was, however, not entirely clear. (The problem with indirect rollovers is that they are subject to 20% mandatory withholding and, if not executed correctly, could be fully taxable–and distributions prior to age 59½ might also be subject to a 10% federal income tax penalty.)

IRS Notice 2014-54

On September 18, in Notice 2014-54 (and related proposed regulations), the IRS backed away from its prior position. Based on the Notice, it is finally clear that employer-plan distributions can be split into more than one retirement vehicle with, for example, pre-tax money transferred directly to a traditional IRA (with no current tax liability) and after-tax money moved directly to a Roth IRA (with no conversion tax). Even though the new rules aren’t scheduled to go into effect until January 1, 2015, taxpayers can apply this guidance to distributions made on or after September 18, 2014. (The guidance also applies to 403(b) and 457(b) plans.)

The Notice provides the following technical rules:

•When calculating the taxable portion of a distribution from a 401(k) plan, all distributions you receive at the same time are treated as a single distribution, even if the proceeds are going to multiple destinations. This is important for allocating pre-tax and after-tax contributions to a distribution. For example, assume your 401(k) account is $100,000, consisting of $60,000 (6/10s) of pre-tax dollars and $40,000 (4/10s) of after-tax dollars. You request that $20,000 be rolled directly over to an IRA and $20,000 paid to you. This is treated as a single $40,000 distribution from the 401(k) plan. Of this $40,000, $24,000 (6/10s) is pre-tax dollars, and $16,000 (4/10s) is after-tax dollars.
•If you receive a distribution (as defined above), and roll all or part of the distribution over to one or more eligible retirement plans, your pre-tax dollars will be deemed allocated first to any direct rollovers you make, and then to any 60-day (indirect) rollovers you make. After all your pre-tax dollars have been so allocated, any remaining amounts rolled over will consist of after-tax dollars.
•If you are making direct rollovers to more than one eligible retirement plan (or indirect rollovers to more than one plan), you can direct the trustee how to allocate the pre-tax dollars among those retirement plans prior to the time the direct rollovers are made.

Examples

The Notice includes the following examples:

Julie participates in a 401(k) plan. Her $250,000 account balance consists of $200,000 of pre-tax dollars and $50,000 of after-tax dollars. Julie leaves her job, and requests a distribution of $100,000. The $100,000 distribution is deemed to include $80,000 of pre-tax dollars ($100,000 x $200,000/$250,000), and $20,000 of after-tax dollars ($100,000 x $50,000/$250,000). Julie requests that $70,000 be directly rolled over to the 401(k) plan maintained by her new employer and that $30,000 be paid to her in cash. Because the pre-tax amount of the distribution ($80,000) exceeds the amount directly rolled over ($70,000), the amount directly rolled over to the new plan consists entirely of pre-tax dollars. The remaining amount paid to Julie (prior to any withholding tax) consists of $10,000 in pre-tax dollars and $20,000 in after-tax dollars. Prior to the 60th day after the distribution, Julie chooses to roll over $12,000 to an IRA. Because the amount rolled over in the 60-day rollover ($12,000) exceeds the remaining pre-tax dollars ($10,000), the amount rolled over to the IRA consists of $10,000 of pre-tax dollars and $2,000 of after-tax dollars.

The facts are the same as in Example 1, except that Julie chooses to make $82,000 of direct rollovers — $50,000 to the new 401(k) plan and $32,000 to an IRA. The remaining $18,000 is paid to Julie. Because the amount rolled over ($82,000) exceeds the pre-tax amount of the distribution ($80,000), the direct rollovers consist of $80,000 in pretax amounts and $2,000 in after-tax amounts. Julie is allowed to allocate the pre-tax dollars between the new 401(k) plan and the IRA prior to the time the direct rollovers are made.

The facts are the same as in Example 1, except that Julie chooses to make a direct rollover of $80,000 to a traditional IRA and $20,000 to a Roth IRA. Julie is permitted to allocate the $80,000 that consists entirely of pre-tax dollars to the traditional IRA so that the $20,000 rolled over to the Roth IRA consists entirely of after-tax dollars.

Conclusion

Prior to Notice 2014-54, it was possible to achieve a tax-free Roth conversion of after-tax dollars in an employer plan, but it was a fairly complicated procedure using 60 day (indirect) rollovers, not direct rollovers, which involved several steps and required taxpayers to have sufficient funds outside the plan to make up the 20% mandatory withholding that applied to the taxable portion of the distribution. The ability to accomplish the same result in a more efficient manner using direct rollovers is welcome relief.

IRS Notice 2014-54 is titled Guidance on Allocation of After-Tax Amounts to Rollovers, and can be found at www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-14-54.pdf.

QUARTERLY MARKET REVIEW: JULY-SEPTEMBER 2014

The Markets

Volatility returned to equities markets in Q3. A strong August was followed by losses in September, when any rallies began to focus around selected winners rather than benefitting stocks across the board. Investors exhibited a decided preference for large caps; the S&P 500 closed above 2,000 for the first time ever and the Dow industrials also set new all-time highs. The Nasdaq returned to a level it hadn’t seen since March 2000 and regained the lead for 2014. However, the Russell 2000, which has struggled for most of the year, fell deeper into negative territory year-to-date, while the Global Dow suffered from political conflicts abroad and concerns about global growth.

Bond investors continued to demonstrate surprising resilience. In early September, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell to 2.35%–a level it hadn’t seen in more than a year–as prices rose. However, as the Federal Reserve continued to taper its economic support and ramped up discussion of how and when to increase rates, demand began to taper off (though geopolitical anxieties and a strengthening dollar kept the decline in check). Gold, which started the quarter at roughly $1,320, ended below $1,220. It was hurt in part by a stronger U.S. dollar, which by the end of the quarter had hit its highest level against the euro in almost two years. Dollar strength coupled with weaker global demand also meant lower oil prices; a barrel fell from $107 a barrel to roughly $93 during the quarter, a level it hasn’t seen since January.

Market/Index 2013 Close As of 9/30 Month Change Quarter Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17042.90 -.32% 1.29% 2.81%
NASDAQ 4176.59 4493.39 -1.90% 1.93% 7.59%
S&P 500 1848.36 1972.29 -1.55% .62% 6.70%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1101.68 -6.19% -7.65% -5.32%
Global Dow 2484.10 2534.47 -3.22% -2.73% 2.03%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.52% 17 bps -1 bps -52 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Quarterly Economic Perspective

  • After contracting 2.1% in Q1, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.6% during the second quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said increases in consumer expenditures, exports, business spending on equipment, and spending by both state and local governments were major contributors to the growth. Meanwhile, after-tax corporate profits also rebounded from their Q1 slump, rising 8.6%.
  • The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee continued to unwind its economic support. Its September bond purchases were only $15 billion, and they are scheduled to end in October. The committee also reaffirmed that the key Fed funds interest rate won’t increase for a “considerable time” after that. However, a survey of members showed that most now expect steeper increases than previously estimated, with rates hitting 1.4% by the end of 2015 and 2.9% by December 2016.
  • Despite a slight improvement in August’s unemployment rate (6.1%), the number of new jobs added in August was a disappointing 142,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The continued slack in the labor market is one reason cited by the Federal Reserve for its caution about raising interest rates.
  • The housing recovery showed signs of tapering off. New home sales fell in both July and August, and the National Association of Realtors® said a shortage of the cash buyers who had helped boost existing home resales in July cut resales the following month. Housing starts and building permits also slowed in August after a strong July, according to the Commerce Department, while the rate of home price increases in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index began to taper off.
  • After a strong July, manufacturing gains began to taper off. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose and fell based on orders for commercial aircraft, which hit a record high in July and plummeted a month later; aside from transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.7% in August. Auto production also saw a strong July and weaker August, and after six straight months of gains, the Fed’s gauge of industrial production edged downward in August.
  • By quarter’s end, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said falling energy costs had helped cut consumer inflation by 0.2%. That left the annual inflation rate for the previous 12 months at 1.7%, down from Q1’s 2.1%. The 1.8% annual inflation rate for final-state wholesale prices also was lower than Q1’s 2%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said both personal income and consumer spending saw gains throughout the quarter.
  • Conflicts over Ukraine continued to raise concerns about how Russian retaliation for Western sanctions might affect the fragile European economy. A eurozone GDP that essentially flatlined in Q2 and weakness in both Germany and Italy led the European Central Bank to promise more aggressive stimulus measures.
  • The Chinese economy continued to show signs of slowing in some key areas. By August, growth in industrial production was almost 7% instead of the previous month’s 9%, housing sales were down nearly 11% from the beginning of 2014, and HSBC Corp.’s Purchasing Managers’ Index remained at 50.2–barely above the level that would represent contraction.

Eye on the Month Ahead

With October’s Fed bond purchases expected to be the last, next month’s monetary policy committee announcement will be watched to see if a rate hike is still a “considerable time” away. Global investors will assess whether additional expected support from the European Central Bank is likely to help jumpstart the economy there.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); http://www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

What I’m Watching This Week – 29 September 2014

The Markets

Volatility was the name of the game last week. In addition to a multination campaign of airstrikes against terrorist targets in the Middle East, a decline in U.S. durable goods orders and an upward revision to U.S. GDP sent equities yo-yoing. Friday’s rally couldn’t overcome earlier losses, particularly those suffered by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. Meanwhile, increases in the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury sent its yield lower.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 9/26 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17279.74 17113.15 -.96% 3.24%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4579.79 4512.19 -1.48% 8.04%
S&P 500 1848.36 2010.40 1982.85 -1.37% 7.28%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1146.92 1119.33 -2.41% -3.81%
Global Dow 2484.10 2605.20 2551.32 -2.07% 2.71%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.59% 2.54% -5 bps -50 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The U.S. economy grew faster during the second quarter than previously thought. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate showed gross domestic product rising 4.6% rather than 4.2%; exports and business investment were responsible for much of the upward revision.
  • Durable goods orders plummeted 18.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, the decline followed a 22.5% increase in July and was largely the result of a 74% drop in orders for commercial aircraft and parts, which had hit a record high the previous month. Aside from the decline in transportation-related equipment, new orders actually rose 0.7%.
  • New home sales were up 18% in August; the Commerce Department said that was 33% higher than the previous August. However, sales of existing homes fell 1.8% during the month, in part because there were fewer cash buyers. Though the National Association of Realtors® said August’s number represented the second-best pace of 2014, it was 5.3% lower than a year earlier.
  • Treasury officials announced new rules designed to make so-called “tax inversions” more difficult. (Inversion is a practice in which domestic corporations merge with foreign firms and reincorporate overseas, which reduces the U.S. corporate taxes owed.) The regulations could affect several pending mergers of U.S. corporations with overseas companies.
  • Legendary bond mutual fund manager Bill Gross stirred up the relatively placid bond world by resigning from Pacific Investment Management Co.–reportedly after internal conflicts at the firm–to take a position at Janus Capital Group.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Next week will paint a broad-brush picture of the current state of the U.S. economy, including housing, manufacturing, and consumer spending. As always, unemployment data will be assessed for its potential impact on the timing of future Federal Reserve action. And given recent weak data on overseas growth, any stimulus measures announced by the European Central Bank likely would be welcomed by international investors.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK);www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.