Tag: revenue expectations

Handling Market Volatility

Published on by dredheadz

Conventional wisdom says that what goes up, must come down. But even if you view market volatility as a normal occurrence, it can be tough to handle when it’s your money at stake. Though there’s no foolproof way to handle the ups and downs of the stock market, the following common sense tips can help.

Don’t put your eggs all in one basket

Diversifying your investment portfolio is one of the key tools for trying to manage market volatility. Because asset classes often perform differently under different market conditions, spreading your assets across a variety of investments such as stocks, bonds, and cash alternatives has the potential to help reduce your overall risk. Ideally, a decline in one type of asset will be balanced out by a gain in another, though diversification can’t eliminate the possibility of market loss.

One way to diversify your portfolio is through asset allocation. Asset allocation involves identifying the asset classes that are appropriate for you and allocating a certain percentage of your investment dollars to each class (e.g., 70 percent to stocks, 20 percent to bonds, 10 percent to cash alternatives). A worksheet or an interactive tool may suggest a model or sample allocation based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance level, and investment time horizon, but that shouldn’t be a substitute for expert advice.

Focus on the forest, not on the trees

As the market goes up and down, it’s easy to become too focused on day-to-day returns. Instead, keep your eyes on your long-term investing goals and your overall portfolio. Although only you can decide how much investment risk you can handle, if you still have years to invest, don’t overestimate the effect of short-term price fluctuations on your portfolio.

Look before you leap

When the market goes down and investment losses pile up, you may be tempted to pull out of the stock market altogether and look for less volatile investments. The small returns that typically accompany low-risk investments may seem attractive when more risky investments are posting negative returns.

But before you leap into a different investment strategy, make sure you’re doing it for the right reasons. How you choose to invest your money should be consistent with your goals and time horizon.

For instance, putting a larger percentage of your investment dollars into vehicles that offer safety of principal and liquidity (the opportunity to easily access your funds) may be the right strategy for you if your investment goals are short-term and you’ll need the money soon, or if you’re growing close to reaching a long-term goal such as retirement. But if you still have years to invest, keep in mind that stocks have historically outperformed stable value investments over time, although past performance is no guarantee of future results. If you move most or all of your investment dollars into conservative investments, you’ve not only locked in any losses you might have, but you’ve also sacrificed the potential for higher returns.

Look for the silver lining

A down market, like every cloud, has a silver lining. The silver lining of a down market is the opportunity you have to buy shares of stock at lower prices.

One of the ways you can do this is by using dollar cost averaging. With dollar cost averaging, you don’t try to “time the market” by buying shares at the moment when the price is lowest. In fact, you don’t worry about price at all. Instead, you invest a specific amount of money at regular intervals over time. When the price is higher, your investment dollars buy fewer shares of an investment, but when the price is lower, the same dollar amount will buy you more shares. A workplace savings plan, such as a 401(k) plan in which the same amount is deducted from each paycheck and invested through the plan, is one of the most well-known examples of dollar cost averaging in action.

For example, let’s say that you decided to invest $300 each month. As the illustration shows, your regular monthly investment of $300 bought more shares when the price was low and fewer shares when the price was high:

Although dollar cost averaging can’t guarantee you a profit or avoid a loss, a regular fixed dollar investment may result in a lower average price per share over time, assuming you continue to invest through all types of markets.

(This hypothetical example is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any particular investment. Actual results will vary.)

Making dollar cost averaging work for you

  • Get started as soon as possible. The longer you have to ride out the ups and downs of the market, the more opportunity you have to build a sizeable investment account over time.
  • Stick with it. Dollar cost averaging is a long-term investment strategy. Make sure that you have the financial resources and the discipline to invest continuously through all types of markets, regardless of price fluctuations.
  • Take advantage of automatic deductions. Having your investment contributions deducted and invested automatically makes the process easy and convenient.

Don’t stick your head in the sand

While focusing too much on short-term gains or losses is unwise, so is ignoring your investments. You should check up on your portfolio at least once a year, more frequently if the market is particularly volatile or when there have been significant changes in your life. You may need to rebalance your portfolio to bring it back in line with your investment goals and risk tolerance. Don’t hesitate to get expert help if you need it to decide which investment options are right for you.

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch

As the market recovers from a down cycle, elation quickly sets in. If the upswing lasts long enough, it’s easy to believe that investing in the stock market is a sure thing. But, of course, it never is. As many investors have learned the hard way, becoming overly optimistic about investing during the good times can be as detrimental as worrying too much during the bad times. The right approach during all kinds of markets is to be realistic. Have a plan, stick with it, and strike a comfortable balance between risk and return.

What I’m Watching This Week – 3 November 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

A robust U.S. GDP reading coupled with the prospect of greater economic stimulus in Japan and additional positive corporate earnings reports helped drive both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 to new record highs. The small caps of the Russell 2000 saw their third straight week of solid gains, which gave the index a positive year-to-date return once again.

Gold tumbled nearly $60 an ounce, hurt in part by the promise of additional monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan. And the benchmark 10-year Treasury retreated as investors regained an appetite for equities risk.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/31 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16805.41 17390.52 3.48% 4.91%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4483.72 4630.74 3.28% 10.87%
S&P 500 1848.36 1964.58 2018.05 2.72% 9.18%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1118.82 1173.51 4.89% .85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2470.50 2527.85 2.32% 1.76%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.29% 2.35% 6 bps -69 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% during the third quarter, according to the initial estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was slightly less than Q2’s 4.6%, but still much stronger than during 2014’s first quarter.
  • As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee finally called a halt to new bond purchases, which have helped support the economy for the last six years by making credit easier to get. The statement said that despite improvements in the labor market and general economy, the committee sees inflation being held in check by lower energy prices. Therefore, it still anticipates the Fed funds interest rate will remain at its current level for “a considerable time.” However, that timetable could be accelerated by unanticipated upticks in inflation and/or employment (or pushed back if either declines).
  • As Fed bond purchases came to an end, the Bank of Japan went in the opposite direction, unexpectedly announcing it will expand its securities purchases. The move is designed to try to reduce the potential for deflation (Japan’s 1% annual inflation rate is far below the central bank’s 2% target). The added buying could make Japanese exports cheaper and help the country’s economy recover from the effects of a sales tax increase in the spring.
  • Durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, much of that was due to a 3.7% decline in the typically volatile transportation sector; excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.2%.
  • Home prices rose in August, but the annual growth rate was the slowest in almost two years. The 0.2% increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index represented a 5.6% annual increase from the previous August, down from July’s 6.7%.
  • Despite a 0.2% increase in personal income in the United States during September, personal consumption fell by an equal amount, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The drop in personal consumption was the first monthly decline since January.

Eye on the Week Ahead

With quantitative easing officially at an end, what’s left of the Q3 corporate earnings season could receive more attention. And as the Fed watches the labor market closely to determine the timing of rate increases, investors will do the same with Friday’s jobs report. The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections also could influence the mood of the markets.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Monthly Market Review – October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

October lived up to its reputation for volatility as triple-digit intraday swings in the Dow became almost commonplace. Despite being spooked for much of the month–at one point the S&P 500 was down almost 8% from its most recent high–both the S&P and the Dow industrials rallied strongly to end the month at fresh all-time records. Generally encouraging corporate earnings from U.S. companies, a strong Q3 GDP, and increased central bank support overseas helped equities markets overcome fears about the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and global concerns about slowing growth and the threat of Ebola.

Increased U.S. energy resources and reduced global demand meant that oil prices continued to drop, ending the month at roughly $80 a barrel. The dollar maintained its September gains against a basket of six foreign currencies; since oil is traded in dollars, a stronger dollar also helped keep oil prices in check. Meanwhile, after a bounce at mid-month, the price of gold plummeted to roughly $1,170 an ounce. Not surprisingly, the volatility in equities caused the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury to fall briefly to its lowest level since June 2013 as investors sought the relative safety of Treasury securities.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Month As of 10/31 Month Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17042.90 17390.52 2.04% 4.91%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4493.39 4630.74 3.06% 10.87%
S&P 500 1848.36 1972.29 2018.05 2.32% 9.18%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1101.68 1173.51 6.52% .85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2534.47 2527.85 -.26% 1.76%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.52% 2.35% -17 bps -69 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

The Month in Review

  • The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% during the third quarter, according to the initial estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was slightly less than Q2’s 4.6%, but still much stronger than during 2014’s first quarter.
  • The 248,000 new jobs created in September helped cut the U.S. unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.9%; it’s the first time since July 2008 that joblessness has been below 6%. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said hiring during the prior two months was stronger than previously thought. However, at least some of the decline in the unemployment rate resulted from 97,000 people, such as retiring baby boomers, dropping out of the labor force. That brought the percentage of people in the workforce to 62.7%–the lowest participation rate since 1978.
  • As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee halted new bond purchases, which have helped support the economy for the last six years by making credit easier to get. The statement said that despite improvements in the labor market and the overall economy, the committee sees inflation being held in check by lower energy prices. Therefore, it still anticipates the Fed funds interest rate will remain at its current level for “a considerable time.” However, that timetable could be accelerated by unanticipated upticks in inflation and/or employment (or pushed back if either declines).
  • As Fed bond purchases came to an end, the Bank of Japan went in the opposite direction, announcing it will expand its securities purchases. The move is designed to prevent potential deflation (Japan’s 1% annual inflation rate is far below the central bank’s 2% target). The added buying could help make Japanese exports cheaper.
  • Eurozone manufacturing output saw its largest monthly decline since late 2008 in August, according to the European Union’s statistical agency. The 4.3% decline in German industrial production was especially unsettling, and September’s 0.3% annual inflation rate in the eurozone–the lowest level in five years–raised concerns about the possibility of deflation. To help combat that weakness, the European Central Bank will expand its bond purchases to include asset-backed securities and certain bank bonds, but declined to lower its key interest rate, at least for the time being.
  • China’s growth rate, while still robust compared to the rest of the world, slowed to 7.3% during the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics–below the 7.5% official target for annual growth. Real estate prices and sales continued to be a soft spot. To try to jump-start lending, China’s central bank plans to inject roughly $33 billion into its banking system.
  • Data on the U.S. housing market was generally encouraging. September’s 2.4% increase in existing-home sales represented the fastest growth of 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors®. New home sales also were up 0.2%, which put them 17% higher than in September 2013, and the Commerce Department said both housing starts and building permits were up for the month. However, home prices were a different story. The 0.2% increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index in August represented the slowest annual growth rate in almost two years.
  • U.S. inflation continued to be well-contained. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September, which left the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% for the last 12 months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said increases in food and housing outweighed a 0.7% drop in energy costs. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell 0.1% in September, largely because of declines in both food and energy costs, though wholesale prices overall are 1.6% higher than in September 2013.
  • Retail sales in the United States slipped 0.3% in September, though the Commerce Department said they were 4.3% ahead of a year earlier. The biggest declines were seen in building and garden supplies, clothing, and nonstore retailers, all of which were down more than 1% during the month.
  • U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, much of that was due to a 3.7% decline in the typically volatile transportation sector; excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.2%.

Eye on the Month Ahead

With the Fed’s quantitative easing officially at an end and monetary policy meetings on hold until December, equities markets may begin to focus on what’s left of earnings season as well as the jobs and inflation data that will affect future Fed actions. The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections also could influence the mood of the markets.

IRA and Retirement Plan Limits for 2015

Published on by dredheadz

IRA and Retirement Plan Limits for 2015

IRA contribution limits

The maximum amount you can contribute to a traditional IRA or Roth IRA in 2015 is $5,500 (or 100% of your earned income, if less), unchanged from 2014. The maximum catch-up contribution for those age 50 or older remains at $1,000. (You can contribute to both a traditional and Roth IRA in 2015, but your total contributions can’t exceed these annual limits.)

Traditional IRA deduction limits for 2015

The income limits for determining the deductibility of traditional IRA contributions have increased for 2015 (for those covered by employer retirement plans). For example, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution if your filing status is single/head of household and your income (“modified adjusted gross income,” or MAGI) is $61,000 or less (up from $60,000 in 2014). If you’re married and filing a joint return, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution if your MAGI is $98,000 or less (up from $96,000 in 2014). If you’re not covered by an employer plan but your spouse is, and you file a joint return, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution if your MAGI is $183,000 or less (up from $181,000 in 2014).

If your 2015 federal income tax filing status is: Your IRA deduction is reduced if your MAGI is between: Your deduction is eliminated if your MAGI is:
Single or head of household $61,000 and $71,000 $71,000 or more
Married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er)* $98,000 and $118,000 (combined) $118,000 or more (combined)
Married filing separately $0 and $10,000 $10,000 or more

*If you’re not covered by an employer plan but your spouse is, your deduction is limited if your MAGI is $183,000 to $193,000, and eliminated if your MAGI exceeds $193,000.

Roth IRA contribution limits for 2015

The income limits for determining how much you can contribute to a Roth IRA have also increased. If your filing status is single/head of household, you can contribute the full $5,500 to a Roth IRA in 2015 if your MAGI is $116,000 or less (up from $114,000 in 2014). And if you’re married and filing a joint return, you can make a full contribution if your MAGI is $183,000 or less (up from $181,000 in 2014). (Again, contributions can’t exceed 100% of your earned income.)

If your 2015 federal income tax filing status is: Your Roth IRA contribution is reduced if your MAGI is: You cannot contribute to a Roth IRA if your MAGI is:
Single or head of household More than $116,000 but less than $131,000 $131,000 or more
Married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er) More than $183,000 but less than $193,000 (combined) $193,000 or more (combined)
Married filing separately More than $0 but less than $10,000 $10,000 or more

Employer retirement plans

The maximum amount you can contribute (your “elective deferrals”) to a 401(k) plan has increased for 2015. The limit (which also applies to 403(b), 457(b), and SAR-SEP plans, as well as the Federal Thrift Plan) is $18,000 in 2015 (up from $17,500 in 2014). If you’re age 50 or older, you can also make catch-up contributions of up to $6,000 to these plans in 2015 (up from $5,500 in 2014). (Special catch-up limits apply to certain participants in 403(b) and 457(b) plans.)

If you participate in more than one retirement plan, your total elective deferrals can’t exceed the annual limit ($18,000 in 2015 plus any applicable catch-up contribution). Deferrals to 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans, SIMPLE plans, and SAR-SEPs are included in this limit, but deferrals to Section 457(b) plans are not. For example, if you participate in both a 403(b) plan and a 457(b) plan, you can defer the full dollar limit to each plan–a total of $36,000 in 2015 (plus any catch-up contributions).

The amount you can contribute to a SIMPLE IRA or SIMPLE 401(k) plan has increased to $12,500 for 2015, up from $12,000 in 2014. The catch-up limit for those age 50 or older has also increased, to $3,000 (up from $2,500 in 2014).

Plan type: Annual dollar limit: Catch-up limit:
401(k), 403(b), governmental 457(b), SAR-SEP, Federal Thrift Plan $18,000 $6,000
SIMPLE plans $12,500 $3,000

Note: Contributions can’t exceed 100% of your income.

The maximum amount that can be allocated to your account in a defined contribution plan (for example, a 401(k) plan or profit-sharing plan) in 2015 is $53,000 (up from $52,000 in 2014), plus age-50 catch-up contributions. (This includes both your contributions and your employer’s contributions. Special rules apply if your employer sponsors more than one retirement plan.)

Finally, the maximum amount of compensation that can be taken into account in determining benefits for most plans in 2015 has increased to $265,000, up from $260,000 in 2014; the dollar threshold for determining highly compensated employees (when 2015 is the look-back year) is $120,000, up from $115,000 in 2014.

What I’m Watching This Week – 27 October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Relief at last: Investors finally regained some appetite for risk as equities got a break from the recent wave of selling. After four straight weeks of losses, the S&P 500 saw a strong bounce. However, the Nasdaq’s rebound was even bigger and the small caps of the Russell 2000 saw their second consecutive week of robust gains. Though the Dow industrials lagged the other three domestic indices, the rally brought the Dow back into positive territory for the year. The Global Dow also recovered from its slump, nearly managing to break even for the year.

The strong showing in equities helped send the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield up as prices fell. Meanwhile, the price of oil stabilized in the low $80s

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/24 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16380.41 16805.41 2.59% 1.38%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4258.44 4483.72 5.29% 7.35%
S&P 500 1848.36 1886.76 1964.58 4.12% 6.29%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1082.33 1118.82 3.37% -3.85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2409.20 2470.50 2.54% -.55%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.22% 2.29% 7 bps -75 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Sales of existing homes jumped 2.4% during September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. That’s the highest pace of 2014, though the number of sales was 1.7% lower than in the previous September. The $209,700 median sale price was 5.6% higher than a year earlier.
  • Meanwhile, new home sales were up 0.2% in September; the Commerce Department said that put them 17% higher than in September 2013.
  • Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that left the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% for the last 12 months–a level that might give the Federal Reserve some leeway to keep interest rates low. Increases in food and housing outweighed a 0.7% drop in energy costs.
  • China’s growth rate, while still robust compared to the rest of the world, slowed during the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The 7.3% increase in the country’s gross domestic product was slightly lower than Q2’s 7.5% and below the official target for annual growth (also 7.5%). Real estate prices and sales continued to be a soft spot in the Chinese economy.
  • After subjecting 150 European banks to annual stress tests, the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority said only 12 of them needed to raise additional capital as protection against a worst-case scenario. Italy had the most problem banks, with Greece and Cyprus tied for second.
  • Similar stress tests for U.S. banks to be conducted by the Federal Reserve next year will measure how well they would withstand a sharp deterioration in the corporate bond market, especially high-yield bonds issued by highly indebted companies. As in previous years, the tests also will gauge exposure to threats from a variety of factors that include sharp declines in the job market and economic growth, a jump in oil prices to $110 a barrel, and a 60% drop in the stock market. Banks that fail the test could be restricted in their ability to pay dividends or buy back stocks until they address the deficiencies.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Once again, all eyes will be on the Fed as quantitative easing is expected to come to an end. And with recent volatility in the equities markets suggesting investor uncertainty, the first estimate of Q3 gross domestic product is likely to be significant. Also, the release of stress tests conducted on European banks could affect investor perception of the financial system there.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

The New Estate Tax Rules and Your Estate Plan

Published on by dredheadz

The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (the 2010 Tax Act) included new gift, estate, and generation-skipping transfer (GST) tax provisions. The 2010 Tax Act provided that in 2011 and 2012, the gift and estate tax exemption was $5 million (indexed for inflation in 2012), the GST tax exemption was also $5 million (indexed for inflation in 2012), and the maximum rate for both taxes was 35%. New to estate tax law was gift and estate tax exemption portability: generally, any gift and estate tax exemption left unused by a deceased spouse could be transferred to the surviving spouse in 2011 and 2012. The GST tax exemption, however, is not portable. Starting in 2013, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (the 2012 Tax Act) permanently extended the $5 million (as indexed for inflation, and thus $5,340,000 in 2014, $5,250,000 in 2013) exemptions and portability of the gift and estate tax exemption, but also increased the top gift, estate, and GST tax rate to 40%. You should understand how these new rules may affect your estate plan.

Exemption portability

Under prior law, the gift and estate tax exemption was effectively “use it or lose it.” In order to fully utilize their respective exemptions, married couples often implemented a bypass plan: they divided assets between a marital trust and a credit shelter, or bypass, trust (this is often referred to as an A/B trust plan). Under the 2010 and 2012 Tax Acts, the estate of a deceased spouse can transfer to the surviving spouse any portion of the exemption it does not use (this portion is referred to as the deceased spousal unused exclusion amount, or DSUEA). The surviving spouse’s exemption, then, is increased by the DSUEA, which the surviving spouse can use for lifetime gifts or transfers at death.

Example:  At the time of Henry’s death in 2011, he had made $1 million in taxable gifts and had an estate of $2 million. The DSUEA available to his surviving spouse, Linda, is $2 million ($5 million – ($1 million + $2 million)). This $2 million can be added to Linda’s own exemption for a total of $7,340,000 ($5,340,000 + $2 million), assuming Linda dies in 2014.

The portability of the exemption coupled with an increase in the exemption amount to $5,340,000 per taxpayer allows a married couple to pass on up to $10,680,000 gift and estate tax free in 2014. Though this seems to negate the usefulness of A/B trust planning, there are still many reasons to consider using A/B trusts.

  • The assets of the surviving spouse, including those inherited from the deceased spouse, may appreciate in value at a rate greater than the rate at which the exemption amount increases. This may cause assets in the surviving spouse’s estate to exceed that spouse’s available exemption. On the other hand, appreciation of assets placed in a credit shelter trust will avoid estate tax at the death of the surviving spouse.
  • The distribution of assets placed in the credit shelter trust can be controlled. Since the trust is irrevocable, your plan of distribution to particular beneficiaries cannot be altered by your surviving spouse. Leaving your entire estate directly to your surviving spouse would leave the ultimate distribution of those assets to his or her discretion.
  • A credit shelter trust may also protect trust assets from the claims of any creditors of your surviving spouse and the trust beneficiaries. You can also include a spendthrift provision to limit your surviving spouse’s access to trust assets, thus preserving their value for the trust beneficiaries.

A/B trust plans with formula clauses

If you currently have an A/B trust plan, it may no longer carry out your intended wishes because of the increased exemption amount. Many of these plans use a formula clause that transfers to the credit shelter trust an amount equal to the most that can pass free from estate tax, with the remainder passing to the marital trust for the benefit of the spouse. For example, say a spouse died in 2003 with an estate worth $5,340,000 and an estate tax exemption of $1 million. The full exemption amount, or $1 million, would have been transferred to the credit shelter trust and $4,340,000 would have passed to the marital trust. Under the same facts in 2014, since the exemption has increased, the entire $5,340,000 estate will transfer to the credit shelter trust, to which the surviving spouse may have little or no access. Review your estate plan carefully with an estate planning professional to be sure your intentions will be carried out under the new laws.

Wealth transfer strategies through gifting

Because of the larger exemptions and lower tax rates, there may be unprecedented opportunities for gifting.

By making gifts up to the exemption amount, you can significantly reduce the value of your estate without incurring gift tax. In addition, any future appreciation on the gifted assets will escape taxation. Assets with the most potential to increase in value, such as real estate (e.g., a vacation home), expensive art, furniture, jewelry, and closely held business interests, offer the best tax savings opportunity.

Gifting may be done in several different forms. These include direct gifts to individuals, gifts made in trust (e.g., grantor retained annuity trusts and qualified personal residence trusts), and intra-family loans. Currently, you can also employ techniques that leverage the high exemptions to potentially provide an even greater tax benefit (for example, creating a family limited partnership may also provide valuation discounts for tax purposes).

For high-net-worth married couples, gifting to an irrevocable life insurance trust (ILIT) designed as a dynasty trust can reduce estate size while providing a substantial gift for multiple generations (depending on how long a trust can last under the laws of your particular state). The value of the gift may be increased (leveraged) by the purchase of second-to-die life insurance within the trust. Further, the larger exemptions enable you to increase, gift tax free, the premiums paid for life insurance policies that are owned by the ILIT or other family members. Premium payments on such policies are taxable gifts, so these premium payments are often limited to avoid incurring gift tax. This in turn restricts the amount of life insurance that can be purchased. But the increased exemptions provide the opportunity to make significantly greater gifts of premium payments, which can be used to buy a larger life insurance policy.

Before implementing a gifting plan, however, there are a few issues you should consider.

  • Can you afford to make the gift in the first place (you may need those assets and the related cash flow in the future)?
  • Do you anticipate that your estate will be subject to estate taxes at your death?
  • Is minimizing estate taxes more important to you than retaining control over the asset?
  • Do you have concerns about gifting large amounts to your heirs (i.e., is the recipient competent to manage the asset)?
  • Does the transfer tax savings outweigh the potential capital gains tax the recipient may incur if the asset is later sold? The recipient of the gift gets a carryover basis (i.e., your tax basis) for income tax purposes. On the other hand, property left to an individual as a result of death will generally receive a step-up in cost basis to fair market value at date of death, resulting in potentially less income tax to pay when such an asset is ultimately sold.

Caution:  The amount of gift tax exemption you used in the past will reduce the $5,340,000 available to you in 2014. For example, a person who used $1 million of his or her exemption in 2012, will be able to make additional gifts totaling $4,340,000 during 2014 free from gift tax.

Tip:  In addition to this opportunity to transfer a significant amount of wealth tax free, it’s important to remember that you can still take advantage of the $14,000 per person per year annual gift tax exclusion for 2013 and 2014. Also, gifts of tuition payments and payment of medical expenses (if paid directly to the institutions) are still tax free and can be made at any time.

What I’m Watching This Week – 13 October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Concerns about signs of weaker growth abroad seemed to outweigh domestic corporate earnings reports last week as volatility went extreme. The Dow industrials saw triple-digit swings four days in a row that wiped out all of the index’s year-to-date gains, and both the Dow and the S&P 500 had their worst weeks since May 2012. By the end of the week, the S&P was down 5% from its most recent high (a 10% drop is considered a correction). Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell solidly into correction territory, ending the week down almost 13% from its most recent high in March. The Global Dow also turned negative year-to-date.

The volatility sent investors once again seeking the relative security of U.S. Treasuries. As the price of the benchmark 10-year note has risen, the decline in its yield has accelerated in each of the last four weeks; the 10-year yield ended last week at its lowest level since June 2013.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/10 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17009.69 16544.10 -2.74% -.20%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4475.62 4276.24 -4.45% 2.39%
S&P 500 1848.36 1967.90 1906.13 -3.14% 3.13%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1104.74 1053.32 -4.65% -9.48%
Global Dow 2484.10 2493.99 2430.85 -2.53% -2.14%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.45% 2.31% -14 bps -73 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee showed that members are worried about slowing global growth. The potential domestic impact of dollar strength, which could become more problematic when interest rates increase, also was a concern, as a stronger dollar could make U.S. exports more expensive and weigh on the domestic economy. Members also wrestled with how to communicate any shift in the committee’s expectations about when a rate increase might occur.
  • European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the already sluggish European economy seems to be slowing further. Coupled with discouraging economic reports out of Germany–exports fell 5.8% in August, and manufacturing output and new orders also were down–Draghi’s statement raised concerns about the financial health of Europe as a whole. To add to the gloom, the International Monetary Fund also lowered its outlook for global growth next year, though its U.S. forecast was more optimistic.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The question of the week will be whether last week’s volatility exhausted negative sentiment or there’s more to come. If domestic Q3 earnings reports and corporate guidance are robust, they might help provide some counterbalance to global pessimism. However, many large U.S. corporations earn a large percentage of their profits overseas; if forward guidance tends to be negative, that could have the opposite effect. Options expiration at week’s end also could affect volatility.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

What I’m Watching This Week – 6 October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

For the second straight week, a Friday rally after encouraging employment numbers couldn’t outweigh equities’ losses earlier in the week. However, it did manage to rescue the Russell 2000 from a brief dip into correction territory (a correction is generally considered to be 10% down from the most recent high). Once again, the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 outpaced the small caps, while equities’ recent slump translated into gains for the price of the benchmark 20-year Treasury.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/3 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17113.15 17009.69 -.60% 2.61%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4512.19 4475.62 -.81% 7.16%
S&P 500 1848.36 1982.85 1967.90 -.75% 6.47%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1119.33 1104.74 -1.30% -5.06%
Global Dow 2484.10 2551.32 2493.99 -2.25% .40%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.54% 2.45% -9 bps -59 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The 248,000 new jobs created in September helped cut the U.S. unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.9%; it’s the first time since July 2008 that joblessness has been below 6%. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said hiring during the prior two months was stronger than previously thought. However, at least some of the decline in the unemployment rate resulted from 97,000 people dropping out of the labor force (for example, retiring baby boomers). That brought the percentage of people in the workforce to 62.7%–the lowest participation rate since 1978.
  • Though home prices measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index continued to rise in July, the pace slowed significantly. Year-over-year gains were down in 19 of the 20 cities, and monthly increases were smaller in 17 cities. Nevertheless, the index was 6.7% ahead of a year earlier, and prices rose 0.6% during the month.
  • The European Central Bank declined to make any further cuts to interest rates until it sees the impact of bond purchases scheduled to begin this month, including sovereign bonds from Greece and Cyprus. However, President Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB stands ready to adopt further stimulus measures if necessary.
  • Both personal income and consumption were up in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in private wages and salaries was almost double that of July, pushing personal income up 0.3%. Personal consumption–one of the Fed’s favorite measures of inflationary pressure–rose 0.5%. That increased consumption helped cut the savings rate from 5.6% to 5.4%.
  • The failure of China’s manufacturing sector to rebound in September from the previous month’s low level fanned concerns about global growth. HSBC Corp.’s Purchasing Managers’ Index remained at 50.2–barely above the level that would represent contraction.
  • The U.S. services sector continued to grow in September, but at a slightly slower pace. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index nudged downward one point from August’s record level to 58.6.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Q3 earnings season will have its unofficial kickoff when Alcoa reports its results after Wednesday’s market close. Discussions of what should happen after the anticipated end of quantitative easing will be scrutinized when minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Designing a Benefit Package for Your Small Business

Published on by dredheadz

If you’re a small business owner, you face many challenges in growing your company. One of them is recruiting and retaining the best talent for your needs. When your primary goals are managing costs and increasing revenue, how do you sufficiently entice new recruits and reward current staff members for continually putting their best efforts forward? One way is ensuring that you provide a competitive, cost-effective benefit package comprised of both traditional and not-so-traditional benefits.

Traditional benefits

In order to remain competitive, nearly all employers should offer some form of health insurance and retirement savings plan. Yet according to the U.S. Department of Labor, only 57% of small employers (those with fewer than 100 employees) offer health coverage and just 49% offer a retirement plan. (Source: National Compensation Survey, March 2013)

Health insurance

Small businesses can typically choose among traditional plans or managed care/health maintenance organizations (HMOs). Traditional plans are typically more expensive but tend to provide more access to providers. HMOs generally carry lower costs but have fewer options for care providers. Some small employers opt for a high-deductible health plan (HDHP) along with a health savings account (HSA). In an HDHP, employees carry a higher burden for up-front costs, but the HSA allows them to set aside money on a tax-advantaged basis to help defray these costs.

Note that a provision in 2010’s Affordable Care Act requires employers with 50 or more full-time employees (as defined by the Act) to offer adequate health insurance that’s affordable or face a possible penalty. “Adequate” means that the company’s share of total plan costs must equal at least 60%. Coverage is “affordable” if an employee’s share of the premium is less than 9.5% of his/her household income. Originally, the provision was to take effect in 2014, but the Department of Health and Human Services recently delayed implementation until 2015. In addition, employers with fewer than 25 full-time employees will be eligible for a credit to help them pay for health insurance.

Retirement plans

In today’s economic and political environment, most adults view retirement planning as a high financial priority. That’s why it’s important to include a retirement savings option in your benefit package. There are several options available to small employers, including traditional 401(k) plans, SIMPLE savings plans, and SEP-IRAs. A financial professional can help you choose the plan that’s right for your company’s needs.

Other options

Other traditional benefits include the following group insurance policies:
• Life insurance: These policies generally provide employees’ survivors a death benefit in a set amount or an amount based on salary (e.g., two times salary).
• Disability insurance: These plans provide employees with an income stream should they become disabled. Benefit amounts are typically a percentage of salary.
• Vision and dental coverage: These plans tend to be highly valued by employees, as the costs associated with dental and vision treatments, which are generally not covered by health insurance, can be quite high.

Not-so-traditional perks

In addition to traditional benefits, there are several not-so-traditional perks you can offer to help set your organization apart in the competition for talent.

Wellness programs

Some employers offer workplace-based wellness programs. According to a 2013 RAND Health study sponsored by the U.S. Departments of Labor and Health and Human Services, about half of U.S. employers offer wellness promotion initiatives. The study found that such programs can help reduce risk factors such as smoking and increase healthy behaviors like exercise. In particular, incentive-based wellness programs help improve overall employee engagement and encourage individuals to take responsibility for their own well-being. Although the study did not reveal a significant reduction in health-care costs for the period analyzed, authors did note trends that might lead to lower costs over the longer term. (Source: Workplace Wellness Programs Study, RAND Corporation, 2013)

Flexible work arrangements

In today’s hectic world, time is nearly as valuable as money. A company that values the work-life balance of its employees is nearly as highly valued as one that offers the best insurance or retirement plan. For this reason, one of the most popular and appreciated employee benefits available today is a flexible work environment. Once the hallmark of only small and “hip” technology companies, flexible work arrangements are growing in popularity. In fact, flexible scheduling is now offered by many larger, more established organizations as well.

Some examples of flexible work programs include:
• Flex schedules: work hours that are outside the norm, such as 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. instead of 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.
• Condensed work weeks: for example, working four 10-hour days instead of five 8-hour days
• Telecommuting: working from home or another remote location
• Job-sharing: allowing two or more employees to “share” the same job, essentially doing the work of one full-time employee (e.g., Jan works Monday through Wednesday noon, while Sam works Wednesday afternoon through Friday)
• Part-time or a combination: allowing employees to cut back to part-time during certain life stages, or use a combination of strategies to meet their needs

Allowing your employees to tailor their work schedules based on their individual needs demonstrates a great deal of respect and can generate an enormous amount of loyalty in return. Even if your business requires employees to be on-site during standard operating hours (such as a retail establishment), having a process in place that supports occasional paid time off to attend to outside obligations can have tremendously positive effects. These obligations might include doctors’ appointments, family commitments, and even unexpected emergencies, such as a sick relative. In some cases, these benefits have no costs associated with them, while in others, the costs may be minimal (e.g., the price of a smartphone or laptop to help employees remain productive while on the go).

Social activities

Sponsoring periodic activities can help workers relax and get to know one another. Such events don’t need to take much time out of the day, but can do wonders for building morale. Bring in lunch or schedule an office team trivia competition or group outing. If you work in a particular industry in which colleagues share a common passion, consider organizing events around that interest. For example, a sporting goods retailer could close up early on a slow-business afternoon and go for a hike or bike ride.

Concierge services, discounts

You may also be able to negotiate with other local companies for employee discounts and services. Laundry service, dry cleaning pickup/drop-off, and meal providers that can deliver hot, family-sized take-home dinners may help employees save both time and worry–and stay focused on the job.

Financial planning/education

For many people, money worries can be distracting and time consuming. Consider inviting a local financial professional into your office to provide counseling sessions for your employees. While you don’t necessarily have to pay for any services provided, simply offering the opportunity to get such help during work hours will be appreciated by your workforce.

Involve your employees

The best benefits are those that meet the needs of your employees. Before making any assumptions, solicit ideas from your employees and then conduct a survey to see what benefits they value the most. Consider putting together teams of associates to help with the idea generation and execution. By involving your employees in the decisions that matter most to them, you demonstrate that you value their time, efforts, opinions, and hard work.

QUARTERLY MARKET REVIEW: JULY-SEPTEMBER 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Volatility returned to equities markets in Q3. A strong August was followed by losses in September, when any rallies began to focus around selected winners rather than benefitting stocks across the board. Investors exhibited a decided preference for large caps; the S&P 500 closed above 2,000 for the first time ever and the Dow industrials also set new all-time highs. The Nasdaq returned to a level it hadn’t seen since March 2000 and regained the lead for 2014. However, the Russell 2000, which has struggled for most of the year, fell deeper into negative territory year-to-date, while the Global Dow suffered from political conflicts abroad and concerns about global growth.

Bond investors continued to demonstrate surprising resilience. In early September, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell to 2.35%–a level it hadn’t seen in more than a year–as prices rose. However, as the Federal Reserve continued to taper its economic support and ramped up discussion of how and when to increase rates, demand began to taper off (though geopolitical anxieties and a strengthening dollar kept the decline in check). Gold, which started the quarter at roughly $1,320, ended below $1,220. It was hurt in part by a stronger U.S. dollar, which by the end of the quarter had hit its highest level against the euro in almost two years. Dollar strength coupled with weaker global demand also meant lower oil prices; a barrel fell from $107 a barrel to roughly $93 during the quarter, a level it hasn’t seen since January.

Market/Index 2013 Close As of 9/30 Month Change Quarter Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17042.90 -.32% 1.29% 2.81%
NASDAQ 4176.59 4493.39 -1.90% 1.93% 7.59%
S&P 500 1848.36 1972.29 -1.55% .62% 6.70%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1101.68 -6.19% -7.65% -5.32%
Global Dow 2484.10 2534.47 -3.22% -2.73% 2.03%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.52% 17 bps -1 bps -52 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Quarterly Economic Perspective

  • After contracting 2.1% in Q1, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.6% during the second quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said increases in consumer expenditures, exports, business spending on equipment, and spending by both state and local governments were major contributors to the growth. Meanwhile, after-tax corporate profits also rebounded from their Q1 slump, rising 8.6%.
  • The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee continued to unwind its economic support. Its September bond purchases were only $15 billion, and they are scheduled to end in October. The committee also reaffirmed that the key Fed funds interest rate won’t increase for a “considerable time” after that. However, a survey of members showed that most now expect steeper increases than previously estimated, with rates hitting 1.4% by the end of 2015 and 2.9% by December 2016.
  • Despite a slight improvement in August’s unemployment rate (6.1%), the number of new jobs added in August was a disappointing 142,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The continued slack in the labor market is one reason cited by the Federal Reserve for its caution about raising interest rates.
  • The housing recovery showed signs of tapering off. New home sales fell in both July and August, and the National Association of Realtors® said a shortage of the cash buyers who had helped boost existing home resales in July cut resales the following month. Housing starts and building permits also slowed in August after a strong July, according to the Commerce Department, while the rate of home price increases in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index began to taper off.
  • After a strong July, manufacturing gains began to taper off. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose and fell based on orders for commercial aircraft, which hit a record high in July and plummeted a month later; aside from transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.7% in August. Auto production also saw a strong July and weaker August, and after six straight months of gains, the Fed’s gauge of industrial production edged downward in August.
  • By quarter’s end, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said falling energy costs had helped cut consumer inflation by 0.2%. That left the annual inflation rate for the previous 12 months at 1.7%, down from Q1’s 2.1%. The 1.8% annual inflation rate for final-state wholesale prices also was lower than Q1’s 2%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said both personal income and consumer spending saw gains throughout the quarter.
  • Conflicts over Ukraine continued to raise concerns about how Russian retaliation for Western sanctions might affect the fragile European economy. A eurozone GDP that essentially flatlined in Q2 and weakness in both Germany and Italy led the European Central Bank to promise more aggressive stimulus measures.
  • The Chinese economy continued to show signs of slowing in some key areas. By August, growth in industrial production was almost 7% instead of the previous month’s 9%, housing sales were down nearly 11% from the beginning of 2014, and HSBC Corp.’s Purchasing Managers’ Index remained at 50.2–barely above the level that would represent contraction.

Eye on the Month Ahead

With October’s Fed bond purchases expected to be the last, next month’s monetary policy committee announcement will be watched to see if a rate hike is still a “considerable time” away. Global investors will assess whether additional expected support from the European Central Bank is likely to help jumpstart the economy there.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); http://www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.