Retirement – What I'm Watching This Week

Monthly Market Review – August 2026

Published on September 1, 2026 by dredheadzLeave a comment

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2026)

Wall Street enjoyed a solid month in August, despite periodic volatility. Stocks overcame inflation concerns, a receding labor market, rising Treasury yields, monetary policy uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to post end-of-the-month gains. The markets focused on strong corporate earnings, softening inflation data, and investor optimism surrounding AI. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high in early August, only to slide marginally lower later in the month, but still ahead of its July closing value. The Nasdaq led the indexes as tech shares resumed their dominance. Among the market sectors, financials, information technology, health care, materials, communication services, and consumer discretionary gained ground in August, while utilities, industrials, real estate, and consumer staples declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Month	As of 8/31	Monthly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	52,485.03	53,185.90	1.34%	10.66%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	25,373.85	26,370.89	3.93%	13.46%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,489.72	7,686.14	2.62%	12.28%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,931.34	2,956.45	0.86%	19.12%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,956.10	7,066.16	1.58%	14.54%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.74%	4.75%	1 bps	59 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	99.82	99.44	-0.38%	1.20%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$84.48	$86.18	2.01%	49.98%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,104.30	$4,496.70	9.56%	4.00%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

August 2026 was a challenging month for the U.S. bond market, defined by rising yields across the curve, pressure on long-term Treasuries, and modestly negative total returns in most fixed income sectors. Bonds mostly reacted to the Federal Reserve rate hold, cooling inflation that remained above the Fed’s target, geopolitical hostilities that influenced oil prices, and the recent trade fallout between the U.S. and Canada.

Inflation in August was middling as headline measures had clearly cooled from the post-pandemic peaks, but the core inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. August price trends neither vaulted higher nor plummeted lower. Instead, inflation remained persistent, showing progress toward the Fed’s target but not enough to prompt a reduction in interest rates.

The U.S. economy in August may best be described as resilient, with moderate growth and solid private demand, yet somewhat stymied by a retreat in hiring. Confidence softened and inflation stayed above target, which kept monetary policy tight. GDP grew at an annualized 1.5% in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1, confirming a slower but still expanding economy. Consumer spending accelerated from the first quarter, an indication that consumers were still spending despite higher interest rates and lingering inflation.

Recent data indicated employment neither expanded nor collapsed. Employment declined, although layoffs and quits were stable and the unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.1% — conditions that indicated a “frozen” labor market. Wages rose 3.2% over the last 12 months, while real earnings ticked down as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the same period rose 3.4%, indicating inflation cut into purchasing power.

According to FactSet, with 97% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 86% beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates, while 77% reported positive revenue above expectations. Through the second quarter, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was 52.0%, which is the highest earnings growth rate reported by the index since the second quarter of 2021. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors reported positive revenue growth with energy, information technology, and communication services delivering double-digit revenue growth.

August 2026 was a tight, high-priced month for crude oil. Prices per barrel held in the mid $80s to low $90s, while U.S. retail gasoline prices pushed above $4.00 per gallon nationally late in the month. Reduced crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, high summer driving demand, and tight domestic fuel inventories supported higher prices. The retail price of regular gasoline was $4.085 per gallon on August 24, $0.011 lower than the price a month earlier but $0.938 higher than the price a year ago. The dollar showed resilience in August, closing the month marginally lower, despite a myriad of domestic economic factors, including a slowing labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. After reaching an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January, gold prices spiraled downward, trading between $3,970-$4,500 per ounce, as renewed Middle East tensions fueled inflation concerns, while hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh strengthened expectations for a September rate hike.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of July 31, 2026.

Employment: July saw a drop in employment indicating a weakening in the labor market. Employment declined by 23,000 last month after increasing 20,000 (revised) in June. The change in employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from 129,000 to 63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from 57,000 to 20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined was 103,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point in July to 4.1% but was 0.2 percentage point higher than the rate in July 2025. The number of unemployed persons in July was 6.9 million, 178,000 lower than the total from the previous month and 356,000 under the July 2025 figure. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), was 1.8 million in July, 166,000 fewer than the estimate in June. Long-term unemployed accounted for 25.5% of all unemployed people in July. Both the labor force participation rate, at 61.4% and the employment-population ratio, at 58.9%, ticked down 0.1 percentage point from June. In July, average hourly earnings, at $37.62, rose $0.02 from the previous month. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours last month.
There were 203,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 22, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,778,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, 0.1 percentage point below the rate a year earlier. A year ago, there were 229,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,942,000.
FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not meet in August.
GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion slowed somewhat in the second quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.5%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, GDP rose 2.1%. Compared to the first quarter, the decrease in GDP in the second quarter reflected decelerations in private investment (7.9% to 2.7%), exports (10.9% to 4.5%), and government spending (+4.4% to -1.0%). Consumer spending accelerated from 0.5% in the first quarter to 3.4% in the second quarter. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, ticked up 0.7 percentage point to 12.5%.
July 2026 saw the federal budget register a deficit of $432 billion following June’s $120 billion shortfall. A year earlier, the deficit was $291 billion. In July, receipts totaled $334 billion, while expenditures were $766 billion. Over the 10 months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $1,799 billion, $170 billion under the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same 10 months, individual income taxes, at $2,369 billion, accounted for more than half of the total receipts of $4,485 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $6,284 billion, of which Social Security ($1,384 billion) was the largest outlay.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income rose 0.4% in July, while disposable (after-tax) personal income increased 0.5%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.2%. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased 0.2% in July. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also ticked up 0.2% last month. From July 2025, the PCE price index rose 3.7%, the same advance as for the 12 months ended in June. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3% from July 2025 (3.5% for the year ended in June).
The Consumer Price Index inched up 0.1% in July and advanced 3.4% over the last 12 months, 0.1 percentage point lower than for the 12 months ended in June. Shelter prices, which accounted for roughly two-thirds of the overall monthly increase, inched up 0.1% in July and 3.2% since July 2025. Food prices rose 0.2% in June and 3.0% over the last 12 months. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in July after being flat in June but rose 2.5% since July 2025. Over the last 12 months, food prices increased 3.0% and energy prices rose 14.7%.
The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index was unchanged in July after falling 0.1% in June. Producer prices climbed 4.7% over the last 12 months. Prices for services ticked up 0.2% in July. Prices for goods fell 0.7% from the previous month. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 0.2% in July and 4.2% over the year. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% in July after inching up 0.1% in June. For the 12 months ended in July, producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.7%.
Housing: Existing home sales decreased 1.7% in July but were up 2.4% from a year ago. Inventory of existing homes for sale in July, at a 4.6-month supply, was unchanged from the prior month’s estimate. The median sales price in July was $434,100, down from the June estimate of $442,800 but greater than the July 2025 price of $425,700. Sales of existing single-family homes declined 1.9% in July but rose 0.8% from July 2025. The median sales price for existing single-family homes in July was $440,300, lower than the previous month’s price of $448,800 but higher than the July 2025 price of $432,000.
The most recent data shows sales of new single-family houses in July 2026 were 10.5% below the June rate and 6.3% under the July 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in July represented a supply of 9.6 months at the current sales rate, higher than the June estimate of 8.5 months and marginally above the July 2025 estimate of 9.2 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in July was $393,800. This was 2.3% below the June price of $403,100 and 0.9% under the July 2025 price of $397,300. The average sales price of new houses sold in July was $508,800. This was 4.1% above the June price of $488,900 and 5.4% above the July 2025 price of $482,800.
Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.2% in July after increasing 0.3% in June. IP was 1.1% above its year-earlier level. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month and increased 1.2% from a year earlier. In July, mining advanced 0.2%, while utilities grew 0.5%. Mining was up 1.0% from July 2025, while utilities rose 0.7% from last year.
According to the latest report from the Census Bureau, new orders for durable goods increased $3.6 billion, or 1.1%, in July following a 0.5% June advance. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.3%. Over the last 12 months ended in July, durable goods orders have risen 7.6%.
Imports and exports: U.S. import prices decreased 0.4% in July following a 0.3% fall in June, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The July decrease in import prices was the largest monthly decline since import prices fell 0.5% in May 2025. Despite the monthly decline, prices for imports increased 5.9% from July 2025. Prices for exports decreased 1.3% in July after falling 0.7% the previous month. Over the 12 months ended in July, export prices increased 8.2%.
The international trade in goods deficit was $118.8 billion in July, up $17.4 billion, or 17.2%, from June. Exports of goods for July were $199.4 billion, $6.0 billion, or 2.9%, less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $318.2 billion, $11.4 billion, or 3.7%, more than June imports. Since July 2025, exports are up 11.7%, while imports have risen 13.7%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released August 4, 2026, was for June and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $73.3 billion, a decrease of $4.4 billion, or 5.6%, from the May deficit. June exports were $314.7 billion, $2.9 billion, or 0.9%, less than May exports. June imports were $388.0 billion, $7.3 billion, or 1.8%, less than May imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $189.3 billion, or 33.8%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $198.3 billion, or 11.7%. Imports increased $9.0 billion, or 0.4%.
International markets: European equity markets ended August 2026 showing moderate strength, although with mixed results. Markets were buoyed by strong corporate earnings and resilient economic growth. Asian markets experienced a more volatile August but ended the month mostly higher. Asian stocks were primarily impacted by artificial intelligence shares, shifting central bank expectations, and geopolitical developments affecting energy markets and investor risk appetite. By the end of August, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ticked up 0.2% for the month; the United Kingdom’s FTSE fell 0.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 4.0%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.6%.
Consumer confidence: The Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points in August to 89.4 from 90.2 in July. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased by 6.8 points to 121.2 following three consecutive months of decline. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell by 5.8 points to 68.2.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Heading into the autumn season, the U.S. economy experienced moderate growth over the summer. Investors will look to see how the labor market and inflation influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moving forward.

What I’m Watching This Week – 31 August 2026

Published on August 31, 2026 by dredheadzLeave a comment

The Markets (as of market close August 28, 2026)

Major U.S. stocks ended the last full week of trading in August modestly higher. Strong AI company earnings boosted tech shares, while the war with Iran, persistent inflation, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve dampened investor enthusiasm for risk. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in his speech at the Jackson Hole Summit, noted that while inflation numbers had been better than expected lately, recent data was not enough to demonstrate sufficient improvement in overall price pressures to warrant softening of the Fed’s current monetary policy. Communication services, financials, information technology, consumer discretionary, and materials led the market sectors. Crude oil prices dipped lower as improving transport through the Strait of Hormuz reduced perceived supply risk.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 8/28	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	53,277.01	53,559.99	0.53%	11.44%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	26,180.46	26,402.42	0.85%	13.60%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,674.37	7,711.76	0.49%	12.65%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	3,017.87	2,972.37	-1.51%	19.76%
Global Dow	6,169.34	7,099.31	7,071.23	-0.40%	14.62%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.74%	4.72%	-2 bps	56 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	98.83	99.67	0.85%	1.43%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$86.78	$83.43	-3.86%	45.20%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,669.80	$4,506.30	-3.50%	4.22%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5% in second-quarter of 2026, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, GDP increased 2.1%. Contributing to the increase in the second-quarter GDP were increases in consumer spending (3.4%), exports (4.5%), and investment (2.7%) that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending (-1.0%). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased 12.5%.
According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% in July and was up 3.7% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2% in July and 3.3% over the last 12 months. Also, personal income rose 0.4% last month, while disposable (after-tax) income increased 0.5%. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.2% last month.
The international trade in goods deficit was $118.8 billion in July, up $17.4 billion, or 17.2%, from the June estimate. Exports of goods for July were $199.4 billion, $6.0 billion, or 2.9%, less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $318.2 billion, $11.4 billion, or 3.7%, more than June imports.
Sales of new single-family houses in July were 10.5% below the June rate and 6.3% below the July 2025 rate. Inventory in July represented a supply of 9.6 months at the current sales rate. The month’s supply was 12.9% above the June 2026 estimate of 8.5 months and 4.3% above the July 2025 estimate of 9.2 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in July was $393,800. This was 2.3% below the June price of $403,100 and was 0.9% below the July 2025 price of $397,300. The average sales price of new houses sold in July 2026 was $508,800. This was 4.1% above the June 2026 price of $488,900 and 5.4% above the July 2025 price of $482,800.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, up four of the last five months, increased $3.6 billion, or 1.1%. This followed a 0.5% June advance. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.3%. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the overall July increase, rising 2.3%. Since July 2025, durable goods orders have risen 7.6%.
For the week ended August 22, there were 203,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 15 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 15 was 1,778,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 3,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended August 8 were New Jersey (2.6%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Oregon (2.0%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), New York (1.7%), Pennsylvania (1.7%), and Nevada (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 15 were in Kentucky (+518), Ohio (+342), Utah (+74), Alaska (+46), and Puerto Rico (+21), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,446), California (-1,432), South Carolina (-1,136), Pennsylvania (-1,077), and Kansas (-990).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.085 per gallon on August 24, $0.036 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.938 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of August 24, the East Coast price increased $0.058 to $3.921 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.004 to $3.934 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.016 to $3.638 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.074 to $4.359 per gallon; and the West Coast price advanced $0.061 to $5.147 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The employment data for August is available this week. July saw payrolls decrease by an estimated 23,000.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); http://www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).

What I’m Watching This Week – 24 August 2026

Published on August 24, 2026 by dredheadzLeave a comment

The Markets (as of market close August 21, 2026)

The benchmark indexes closed lower last week, snapping a multi-week winning streak. Despite a rally last Friday, stocks retreated in response to elevated Treasury yields, rising crude oil prices, mixed corporate earnings, and weakness in key tech and mega-cap shares. Among the market sectors, only health care, materials, and energy closed the week higher. Bonds experienced a sharp sell-off, particularly in long-term Treasuries, driven by growing fiscal deficit concerns, stubborn energy-driven inflation risks, and heavy debt issuance.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 8/21	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	53,732.41	53,277.01	-0.85%	10.85%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	26,729.16	26,180.46	-2.05%	12.64%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,785.76	7,674.37	-1.43%	12.11%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	3,068.42	3,017.87	-1.65%	21.59%
Global Dow	6,169.34	7,108.44	7,099.31	-0.13%	15.07%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.69%	4.74%	5 bps	58 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	99.65	98.83	-0.82%	0.58%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$82.31	$86.78	5.43%	51.03%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,428.70	$4,669.80	5.44%	8.00%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The number of issued residential building permits rose 5.0% in July over the June estimate and 3.1% above the July 2025 rate. Single-family building permits in July were 2.5% above the June figure. Housing starts in July were 12.4% below the June figure and 13.5% below the estimate from a year earlier. Single-family housing starts in July were 9.9% below the revised June figure. Housing completions in July were 9.1% below the June estimate and 16.8% under the July 2025 rate. Single-family housing completions in July were 5.8% below the June rate.
U.S. import prices decreased 0.4% in July following a 0.3% decline in June. Lower prices for fuel imports more than offset higher prices for nonfuel imports in July. Despite the monthly decline, prices for U.S. imports increased 5.9% for the 12 months ended July 2026. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 1.3% in July after falling 0.7% the previous month. Over the past year, U.S. export prices increased 8.2%.
Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing production each grew 0.2% in July after increasing 0.3% in June. In July, mining and utilities increased 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4%. Total IP in July was 1.1% above its year-earlier level.
For the week ended August 15, there were 206,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 3,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 8 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 8 was 1,799,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 4,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended August 1 were New Jersey (2.6%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Oregon (2.0%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 8 were in Michigan (+1,931), New York (+1,379), Texas (+1,324), South Carolina (+1,268), and Illinois (+994), while the largest decreases were in Ohio (-252), Iowa (-103), Kentucky (-87), Louisiana (-41), and North Dakota (-33).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.049 per gallon on August 17, $0.043 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.924 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of August 17, the East Coast price decreased $0.021 to $3.863 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.122 to $3.938 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.079 to $3.622 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.164 to $4.285 per gallon; and the West Coast price ticked up $0.011 to $5.086 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Most of the attention will be focused on the latest report on gross domestic product and on the personal consumption expenditures price index, an important measure of inflation.

What I’m Watching This Week – 17 August 2026

Published on August 17, 2026 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close August 14, 2026)

The stock market closed generally higher last week, despite a minor setback last Friday. Market momentum was driven by cooling inflation data (see below), solid Q2 corporate earnings reports, and strengthening opinions that the Federal Reserve may posture a more dovish approach to interest rates in the near term. The S&P 500 reached an all-time record high last Thursday, climbing to 7,816. Nine of the 11 market sectors posted gains, with the exception of consumer discretionary and communication services, which closed lower. Treasury yields eased somewhat on the greater likelihood that the Fed would not hike rates any time soon. Crude oil prices rose above $82 per barrel as the U.S. increased economic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 8/14	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	54,036.93	53,732.41	-0.56%	11.80%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	26,690.62	26,729.16	0.14%	15.00%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,757.64	7,785.76	0.36%	13.74%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	3,034.49	3,068.42	1.12%	23.63%
Global Dow	6,169.34	7,086.70	7,108.44	0.31%	15.22%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.66%	4.69%	3 bps	53 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	99.61	99.65	0.04%	1.41%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$77.03	$82.31	6.85%	43.25%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,398.40	$4,428.70	0.69%	2.42%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for shelter rose 0.1% in July, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the overall monthly increase. Prices for food also increased 0.1% last month, as prices for food away from home rose 0.3%. In contrast, energy prices declined 1.5% in July. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in July after being unchanged in June. Last month, prices increased for medical care, airline fares, communication, education, and recreation. Conversely, prices fell for medical care commodities, health insurance, and motor vehicle insurance. The CPI rose 3.4% for the 12 months ended in July after rising 3.5% for the 12 months ended in June. Prices less food and energy rose 2.5% over the last 12 months following a 2.6% increase over the 12 months ended in June. Energy prices increased 14.7% since July 2025. Food prices increased 3.0% over the same 12-month period.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in July from the previous month. A 0.2% increase in prices for services offset a 0.7% decrease in prices for goods. The PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% in July after ticking up 0.1% in June. Producer prices less foods and energy inched up 0.1% last month. Since July 2025, producer prices rose 4.7%, the same 12-month increase as prices less foods, energy, and trade services. Of particular note, a major factor in the July decrease in goods prices was a 3.1% decline in prices for energy. Prices for foods moved down 0.9%.
Retail sales fell 0.6% in July from the prior month, sharply missing expectations and reversing the 0.2% June gain. The decline in retail sales was the first since October 2025 and the largest decline in over a year. Contributing to the July decrease were declines in sales for motor vehicle and parts dealers, electronics and appliance stores, gasoline stations, and online retailers. Despite the July swoon, retail sales were up 5.0% from July 2025.
Sales of existing homes declined 1.7% in July but were up 0.7% from a year earlier. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS®, at an estimated supply of 4.6 months, unsold inventory in July was unchanged from the previous month and from July 2025. The median existing home sales price in July was $434,100, 2.0% below the June estimate but 2.0% above the July 2025 price of $425,700. Sales of existing single-family homes fell 1.9% last month but were up 0.8% from July 2025. The median existing single-family home price in July was $440,300, 1.9% below the June price but 1.9% above the price from a year earlier.
The government ran a deficit of $432 billion in July. Government receipts totaled $334 billion and outlays were $766 billion. According to the report from the Department of the Treasury, July has been a deficit month 70 times out of 72 fiscal years, since there are usually no major corporate or individual tax due dates in this month. Also, outlays for military active duty and retirement, veterans benefits, Supplemental Security Income, and Medicare payments to health maintenance organizations and prescription drug plans accelerated into July, because August 1, 2026, the normal payment date, fell on a non-business day. Through the first 10 months of the fiscal year, the deficit sat at $1,799 billion, 10.5% above the deficit over the same period in the previous fiscal year.
For the week ended August 8, there were 209,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 1 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 1 was 1,777,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 2,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 25 were New Jersey (2.6%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Oregon (2.0%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Connecticut (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 1 were in New Jersey (+690), Pennsylvania (+688), Connecticut (+352), South Carolina (+220), and Iowa (+175), while the largest decreases were in California (-973), Illinois (-761), North Carolina (-677), Ohio (-636), and Georgia (-506).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.006 per gallon on August 10, $0.073 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.888 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of August 10, the East Coast price decreased $0.060 to $3.884 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.113 to $3.816 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price dropped $0.061 to $3.543 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.018 to $4.121 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.055 to $5.075 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week is light on market-moving economic reports. However, investors may pay particular attention to the July data on import and export prices (a measure of inflation) and the latest report on industrial production.

What I’m Watching This Week – 10 August 2026

Published on August 10, 2026 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close August 7, 2026)

Wall Street ended last week on solid footing, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting notable weekly gains, capped by a Friday rally. The market was buoyed by strong Q2 corporate earnings results and a cooler-than-expected labor report, which quelled immediate fears of aggressive monetary tightening in the near term. Ten-year Treasuries fell following the jobs report. Among the market sectors, information technology, consumer discretionary, materials, and communication services outperformed, while utilities, energy, and real estate lagged. Gold and other precious metals rallied on a weakening dollar and falling bond yields. Crude oil prices fluctuated throughout the week amid ongoing tension in the Strait of Hormuz. However, a potential agreement between Iran and Oman helped drive crude oil prices down at last week’s end.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 8/7	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	52,485.03	54,036.93	2.96%	12.43%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	25,373.85	26,690.62	5.19%	14.84%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,489.72	7,757.64	3.58%	13.32%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,931.34	3,034.49	3.52%	22.26%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,956.10	7,086.70	1.88%	14.87%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.74%	4.66%	-8 bps	50 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	99.82	99.61	-0.21%	1.37%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$84.48	$77.03	-8.82%	34.06%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,104.30	$4,398.40	7.17%	1.72%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Job growth has shown signs of waning this summer. Employment declined by 23,000 in July, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. The change in employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from 129,000 to 63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from 57,000 to 20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined was 103,000 lower than previously reported. In July, the number of unemployed people fell by 178,000 to 6.9 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) edged down by 166,000 last month to 1.8 million but has changed little over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.5% of all unemployed people in July. Last month, both the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 61.4% and 58.9%, respectively. Since January, the labor force participation rate declined by 0.7 percentage point, and the employment-population ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage point. In July, average hourly earnings, at $37.62, increased $0.02. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in July.
S&P Global reported that activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July at the same pace as in the previous month. At a reading of 53.9, July’s rate of expansion was the slowest in the last four months. New orders slowed for the third straight month, as inflationary pressures weighed on demand, which dampened survey respondents’ confidence.
Activity in the services sector accelerated in July, according to the latest report from S&P Global. The rise in services activity in July was the strongest in the last nine months, supported by the steepest increase in new work since November 2025. Survey respondents noted increased confidence in future activity, elevated by hopes of easing energy prices and geopolitical tensions, as well as projected business expansion. However, tariffs and energy-related price increases pushed overall input cost inflation to its highest level since May 2025, contributing to the sharpest rise in prices for services in the last 14 months. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered 54.6 in July, up from 51.2 in June.
According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in June. Hires were unchanged at 5.3 million, while total separations changed little at 5.4 million. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged.
The latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the goods and services trade deficit was $73.3 billion in June, down $4.4 billion, or 5.6%, from $77.6 billion in May, (revised). June exports were $314.7 billion, $2.9 billion, or 0.9%, less than May exports. June imports were $388.0 billion, $7.3 billion, or 1.8%, less than May imports. Since the beginning of the year, the goods and services deficit decreased $189.3 billion, or 33.8%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $198.3 billion, or 11.7%. Imports increased $9.0 billion, or 0.4%.
For the week ended August 1, there were 199,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 25 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 25 was 1,801,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 5,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 18 were New Jersey (2.6%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Oregon (2.0%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 25 were in Ohio (+629), Vermont (+347), Iowa (+111), Nevada (+64), and Maine (+49), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,644), New York (-1,952), New Jersey (-1,377), Indiana (-1,340), and California (-1,313).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.079 per gallon on August 3, $0.017 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.939 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of August 3, the East Coast price decreased $0.053 to $3.944 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.047 to $3.929 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.086 to $3.604 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.056 to $4.139 per gallon; and the West Coast price advanced $0.013 to $5.130 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation reports are on tap for this week with the July releases of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. Also available this week is the latest report on retail sales.

What I’m Watching This Week – 3 August 2026

Published on August 3, 2026 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2026)

The last week of July was an event-heavy one for Wall Street. Investors had to evaluate the impact of significant Q2 earnings results, a Federal Reserve rate decision, the latest gross domestic product report, and more inflation data. Despite a sharp mid-week plunge following the Fed’s decision to maintain the current interest rate range, equities rebounded, driven by strong corporate updates. Long-term Treasury yields drifted higher during the week amid lingering inflation concerns. Crude oil prices continued to react to Middle East developments, fluctuating between $84.00 and $90.00 per barrel.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/31	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	51,947.25	52,485.03	1.04%	9.20%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	24,975.82	25,373.85	1.59%	9.17%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,411.98	7,489.72	1.05%	9.41%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,930.00	2,931.34	0.05%	18.11%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,860.24	6,956.10	1.40%	12.75%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.67%	4.74%	7 bps	58 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	101.49	99.82	-1.65%	1.59%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$90.03	$84.48	-6.16%	47.02%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,054.50	$4,104.30	1.23%	-5.08%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

By a 9–3 vote, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. In support of its decision, the FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. The Committee also noted that inflation remains elevated relative to the Fed’s 2.0% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. Three dissenting members voted to raise interest rates by 0.25%.
Gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026. In the first quarter, GDP increased 2.1%. Forecasters predicted a 2.3% increase in the second quarter. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending, rose 3.2% in the second quarter after ticking up 0.5% in the previous quarter. Domestic investment increased 3.0% in the second quarter (+7.9% in the first quarter), export growth slowed to 4.5% in the second quarter from 10.9% in the first quarter, while imports were relatively unchanged in the second quarter after advancing 11.5%.
June saw consumer spending decline to 0.3% from 0.9% in May. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a measure of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve, ticked down 0.1% in June. From June 2025, the PCE price index increased 3.7%, down from 4.1% for the 12 months ended in May. Core prices, less food and energy, increased 0.1% in June and 3.3% over the last 12 months. Personal income rose 0.2% in June after climbing 0.7% in May. Disposable personal income (less taxes) also rose 0.2% in June.
Durable goods orders rose 0.3% in June following a 4.0% May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3%. Computers and electronic products, up nine of the last 10 months, led the overall increase, after climbing 3.1%.
The advance report on the international trade in goods deficit was $101.5 billion in June, down $4.4 billion, or 4.2%, from $105.9 billion in May. Exports of goods for June were $204.7 billion, $3.8 billion, or 1.8%, less than May exports. Imports of goods for June were $306.2 billion, $8.2 billion, or 2.6%, less than May imports.
For the week ended July 25, there were 197,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 18 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 18 was 1,782,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 11 were New Jersey (2.7%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.1%), Oregon (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), California (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 18 were in Louisiana (+346), Delaware (+162), Vermont (+75), West Virginia (+12), and Wyoming (+1), while the largest decreases were in New York (-17,156), Michigan (-4,974), California (-4,242), Texas (-2,354), and Pennsylvania (-2,266).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.096 per gallon on July 27, $0.095 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.973 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of July 27, the East Coast price increased $0.073 to $3.997 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.102 to $3.882 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price climbed $0.102 to $3.690 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.127 to $4.083 per gallon; and the West Coast price advanced $0.134 to $5.117 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Most of the attention will be focused on the July employment data released at the end of the week. Employment grew by 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%.

What I’m Watching This Week – 27 July 2026

Published on July 27, 2026 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 24, 2026)

Despite a broad-based rally last Friday, stocks generally closed the week lower. With the exception of the Global Dow, each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended last week in the red. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have wreaked havoc with crude oil prices, which jumped to over $100/barrel last Thursday, only to plunge to about $90/barrel by the end of the week. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped to their highest levels since January 2025 following a four-session rally before settling at 4.67%. Energy, industrials, information technology, utilities, health care, and materials outperformed, while consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/24	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	52,146.42	51,947.25	-0.38%	8.08%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	25,520.24	24,975.82	-2.13%	7.46%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,457.69	7,411.98	-0.61%	8.28%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,962.22	2,930.00	-1.09%	18.05%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,813.65	6,860.24	0.68%	11.20%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.54%	4.67%	13 bps	51 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	100.77	101.49	0.71%	3.29%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$81.69	$90.03	10.21%	56.68%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,014.30	$4,054.50	1.00%	-6.23%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Sales of new single-family houses in June were 1.6% above the May rate but 5.6% below the June 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in June represented a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate, which was 1.1% below the May 2026 estimate but 3.3% above the June 2025 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold in June was $398,300. This was 3.3% below the May price of $412,000, and 2.7% under the June 2025 price of $409,200. The average sales price of new houses sold in June was $475,400. This was 9.5% below the May price of $525,200 and 6.5% under the June 2025 price of $508,700.
For the week ended July 18, there were 187,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 11 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 11 was 1,796,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 4 were New Jersey (2.6%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), Oregon (2.1%), Washington (2.0%), California (1.9%), New York (1.8%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 11 were in New York (+12,580), Michigan (+3,143), Florida (+2,799), Texas (+2,676), and South Carolina (+2,113), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-5,603), Missouri (-5,391), California (-2,311), Massachusetts (-1,342), and Rhode Island (-1,031).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.001 per gallon on July 20, $0.146 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.880 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of July 20, the East Coast price increased $0.159 to $3.924 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.118 to $3.780 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price climbed $0.165 to $3.588 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.133 to $3.956 per gallon; and the West Coast price advanced $0.151 to $4.983 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s plenty of market-moving economic data being released this week. The Federal Reserve concludes its meeting on Wednesday, and it’s expected to leave interest rates in their current. The report on gross domestic product for the second quarter is available as is the June data on consumer prices.

What I’m Watching This Week – 20 July 2026

Published on July 20, 2026 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 17, 2026)

Wall Street experienced a downturn last week. Investors were in a “risk-off” mood as the war in Iran escalated, while AI and semiconductor shares dropped, which dragged the overall market lower. Each of the major market indexes lost value, ending a streak of favorable weekly performances. Traders moved away from Megacap shares, which pulled prices lower. Energy, consumer staples, real estate, and financials outperformed, while information technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services declined. Crude oil extended its gains to above $81.00 per barrel, reaching its highest level in a month, after Iran and the U.S. each launched more military strikes.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/17	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	52,637.01	52,146.42	-0.93%	8.50%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	26,281.61	25,520.24	-2.90%	9.80%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,575.39	7,457.69	-1.55%	8.94%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,977.81	2,962.22	-0.52%	19.35%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,855.31	6,813.65	-0.61%	10.44%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.56%	4.54%	-2 bps	38 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	100.96	100.77	-0.19%	2.55%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$71.59	$81.69	14.11%	42.17%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,120.40	$4,014.30	-2.57%	-7.16%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.4% in June after rising 0.5% in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. This decline was the largest one-month decrease since April 2020, when it fell 0.8%. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices increased 3.5%. Energy prices fell 5.7% in June after rising 3.9% in May. The drop in prices for energy was the largest contributor to the monthly CPI decrease, more than offsetting increases for shelter and food. Prices for food increased 0.2% in June, while shelter prices rose 0.1%. Over the last 12 months, food prices are up 3.0%, and shelter prices rose 3.3%. Core prices, excluding food and energy, were flat in June but up 2.6% over the last 12 months.
The Producer Price Index fell 0.3% in June, after advancing 0.6% in May and 1.1% in April. Producer prices increased 5.5% for the 12 months ended in June. The June decline can be attributed to prices for goods, which fell 1.4%, marking the largest decrease since July 2022. Leading the goods decrease in June was a 6.4% drop in energy prices (gasoline prices fell 12.0%). In contrast, prices for services rose 0.2% last month.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in June from the previous month and 6.7% from June 2025. Nonstore (online) retail sales rose 1.9% last month and 14.2% from a year ago. Conversely, gasoline sales fell 5.3% in June but were up 19.8% from a year earlier.
U.S. import prices increased 0.3% in June, following a 1.7-% advance in May. Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in June. U.S. import prices advanced 7.1% for the 12 months ended in June, the largest 12-month increase since the prices rose 7.7% in August 2022. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.6% in June, after rising 1.2% the previous month. Export prices increased 10.2% from June 2025.
Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.1% in June. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Mining and utilities both grew 0.4% in June. Total IP in June was 1.1% above its year-earlier level. Manufacturing increased 1.1% from June 2025. Mining increased 2.4% over the last 12 months, while utilities ticked up 0.3%.
According to the latest information, the government deficit was $120 billion in June, $172 billion less than the May deficit. Through nine months of the current fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,367 billion, marginally above the deficit over the same period last fiscal year ($1,337 billion). Thus far in FY 2026, government receipts amounted to $4,151 billion, of which the primary contributors were individual income taxes ($2,196 billion), social insurance and retirement ($1,384 billion), and corporation income taxes ($279 billion). Custom duties (tariffs) accounted for $163 billion. Over the same period, government expenditures totaled $5,518 billion, of which Social Security payments ($1,244 billion) were the largest expenditures.
The number of issued residential building permits declined 3.0% in June and 2.3% from a year earlier. The number of building permits issued for single-family construction fell 2.4% last month. Conversely, the number of housing starts rose 19.0% in June and 3.5% from June 2025. Single-family housing starts in June were 0.2% below the May estimate. Housing completions in June were 3.3% above the May total and 1.5% above the June 2025 rate. Single-family housing completions in June were 6.6% above the May rate.
For the week ended July 11, there were 208,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 4 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 4 was 1,805,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 27 were New Jersey (2.3%), Puerto Rico (2.3%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Minnesota (2.1%), Massachusetts (2.0%), Oregon (2.0%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 4 were in California (+8,078), Missouri (+6,037), New York (+4,587), Michigan (+4,458), and Tennessee (+2,331), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-2,674), Connecticut (-2,619), Oregon (-2,284), Maryland (-1,223), and Florida (-1,218).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.855 per gallon on July 13, $0.078 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.725 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of July 13, the East Coast price increased $0.065 to $3.765 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.131 to $3.662 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price climbed $0.080 to $3.423 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.162 to $3.823 per gallon; and the West Coast price ticked up $0.001 to $4.832 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

This is a slow week for the release of notable economic data. However, the June figures on new home sales, released by the Census Bureau, is out this Friday. May saw new home sales drop over 7.0%, although both the median ($424,900) and average ($540,600) sales prices increased from their respective prior months’ estimates.

What I’m Watching This Week – 13 July 2026

Published on July 13, 2026 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 10, 2026)

Investors were somewhat skittish during the early part of last week as tensions in the Middle East intensified. However, stocks closed the week on an uptick following solid sessions last Thursday and Friday. After a brief retreat, tech shares led the market surge, supported by the New York market debut of a major South Korean chip manufacturer, which enjoyed the largest-ever U.S. market debut of a foreign firm. Several market sectors performed well, led by energy and information technology. Consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials lagged. Crude oil prices posted weekly gains despite slipping last Friday as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns elevated.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/10	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	52,900.07	52,637.01	-0.50%	9.52%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	25,832.67	26,281.61	1.74%	13.08%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,483.24	7,575.39	1.23%	10.66%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,996.11	2,977.81	-0.61%	19.98%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,853.28	6,855.31	0.03%	11.12%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.48%	4.56%	8 bps	40 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	100.85	100.96	0.11%	2.75%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$68.49	$71.59	4.53%	24.59%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,136.60	$4,120.40	-0.39%	-4.71%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The services sector experienced a modest increase in activity in June, supported by a faster increase in new business as firms responded to gradually stabilizing economic conditions. That said, inflationary pressures stayed elevated, despite easing since May, as tariffs and higher fuel prices increased costs to service providers. Nevertheless, confidence in the sector’s outlook improved in June to the highest since February.
Sales of existing homes fell 2.4% in June but were up 2.8% from a year earlier. Inventory of existing homes for sale sat at a 4.6-month supply, up from 4.5 months last month and unchanged from one year ago. The median existing home price in June was $440,600, 2.2% above the May price of $431,200 and 1.8% higher than the June 2025 price of $432,700. Sales of existing single-family homes declined 2.4% in June but increased 3.3% from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price in June, at $446,400, was 2.2% above the May price of $436,400 and 1.8% higher than the June 2025 price of $438,600.
The international trade in goods and services deficit rose 42.2% in May to $77.6 billion. Exports declined 3.2%, while imports increased 3.3%. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $203.9 billion, or 40.6%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $164.7 billion, or 11.7%. Imports decreased $39.2 billion, or 2.1%.
For the week ended July 4, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 27 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 27 was 1,814,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 20 were Puerto Rico (2.5%), Minnesota (2.2%), New Jersey (2.1%), California (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Rhode Island (1.8%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), and Pennsylvania (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 27 were in New Jersey (+7,262), Connecticut (+2,503), Massachusetts (+1,823), New York (+1,373), and Oklahoma (+1,264), while the largest decreases were in California (-6,158), Pennsylvania (-2,995), Minnesota (-1,947), Wisconsin (-1,029), and Texas (-812).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.777 per gallon on July 6, $0.054 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.652 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of July 6, the East Coast price decreased $0.042 to $3.700 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.094 to $3.531 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price slid $0.022 to $3.343 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.054 to $3.661 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.088 to $4.831 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Most of the attention this week will be focused on the latest inflation-related data with the releases of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index.

What I’m Watching This Week – 6 July 2026

Published on July 6, 2026 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 2, 2026)

Last week’s trading session was shortened as the markets were closed on Friday, July 3, in honor of Independence Day. Wall Street saw a shift from AI and semiconductor stocks to more traditional blue-chip stocks. The major market mover was the labor report for June, which saw employment accelerate but at a slower pace than over the prior two months. Slowing job growth coupled with elevated inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at their current range following their next meeting at the end of July. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the week higher (with the exception of the Russell 2000), with health care, communication services, and financials outperforming. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked higher, while crude oil prices declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/2	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	51,876.11	52,900.07	1.97%	10.06%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	25,297.62	25,832.67	2.12%	11.15%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,354.02	7,483.24	1.76%	9.32%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	3,010.08	2,996.11	-0.46%	20.72%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,791.16	6,853.28	0.91%	11.09%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.37%	4.48%	11 bps	32 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	101.31	100.85	-0.45%	2.64%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$69.55	$68.49	-1.52%	19.20%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,086.80	$4,136.60	1.22%	-4.33%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Employment rose by 57,000 in June, well below the increases for April (148,000, revised) and May (129,000, revised) but higher than the average monthly change over the prior 12 months (+36,000). In June, the labor force participation rate fell 0.3 percentage point to 61.5%. The employment-population ratio declined 0.2 percentage point to 59.0%. The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%. The total number of unemployed, at 7.1 million, decreased 213,000 from the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in June but was up by 286,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.3% of all unemployed people in June. Last month, average hourly earnings rose by $0.13, or 0.3%, to $37.64. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in June.
In May, the number of job openings, at 7.6 million, was unchanged from the prior month. The number of hires, at 5.2 million, was also unchanged in May. Total separations, which include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, at 5.1 million, rose by 63,000 in May. The number of job openings for April was revised down by 33,000 to 7.6 million, the number of hires was revised up by 99,000 to 5.2 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 60,000 to 5.0 million.
Manufacturing continued to improve in June but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Growth was commonly linked to new product launches, alongside some reports of pre-orders placed to protect against rising prices. Higher raw material costs drove another steep rise in input costs, albeit one that was softer than May’s recent high. Selling price inflation also eased, falling to a three-month low. Employment remained a weak point at the end of the second quarter. Job cuts grew at the fastest pace since May 2020 and, excluding the pandemic, were the quickest since October 2009. Nevertheless, the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ registered 53.9 in June, down from 55.1 in May. However, the latest reading marked the 1th consecutive month above the crucial 50.0 threshold and signaled a solid improvement in operating conditions.
For the week ended June 27, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 20 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 20 was 1,814,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 13 were Minnesota (2.1%), Puerto Rico (2.1%), New Jersey (2.0%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Oregon (1.7%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), and Rhode Island (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 20 were in New Jersey (+3,847), Oregon (+1,933), Connecticut (+1,585), Maryland (+1,025), and Wisconsin (+620), while the largest decreases were in Minnesota (-4,770), Pennsylvania (-3,303), Illinois (-2,629), Texas (-1,794), and Ohio (-1,459).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.831 per gallon on June 29, $0.083 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.667 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of June 29, the East Coast price decreased $0.035 to $3.742 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.098 to $3.625 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price slid $0.116 to $3.321 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.130 to $3.715 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.138 to $4.919 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The first full week of July brings with it the latest information on the services sector, the trade deficit, and sales of existing homes.