Tag: business

What I’m Watching This Week – 24 November 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Unexpected changes in monetary policy in China and support for additional stimulus in Europe helped propel the Dow industrials and S&P 500 to fresh record highs on Friday. Large caps, many of which earn a substantial portion of their revenues overseas, benefitted most, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 small caps ended with little changed.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 11/21 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17634.74 17810.06 .99% 7.44%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4688.54 4712.97 .52% 12.84%
S&P 500 1848.36 2039.82 2063.50 1.16% 11.64%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1173.80 1172.42 -.12% .75%
Global Dow 2484.10 2529.28 2559.75 1.20% 3.05%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.32% 2.31% -1 bps -73 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Tacitly acknowledging signs of slowing growth, China’s central bank unexpectedly cut two key interest rates to try to stimulate domestic consumption. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi once again said the ECB is ready to adopt additional stimulus measures if necessary to fight the threat of low inflation.
  • President Obama announced a program that will defer deportation for undocumented immigrants and allow them to receive work permits if they have been in the country for at least five years, have no criminal record, and/or have children who are American citizens. The program would not grant permanent resident status or provide for coverage under the Affordable Care Act. However, those affected would receive Social Security cards and would have to pass background checks and pay taxes. Republican congressional leaders criticized the action and said they plan to address immigration policy in 2015. House Republicans also filed suit against the Obama administration, seeking to overturn two provisions of the Affordable Care Act.
  • After a second quarter of contraction, Japan is now officially in recession. The country’s Cabinet Office announced that gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the third quarter. Though that was better than Q2’s annualized 7.3% decline, it put pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to consider postponing a second round of sales tax increases scheduled for October. The higher taxes were designed to attack Japan’s high sovereign debt.
  • Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s most recent meeting showed that last month’s end to bond-buying efforts came about despite concerns about the potential impact of slowing growth overseas on the U.S. economy. The committee also will watch for signs of falling inflation, which could potentially delay any rate increase.
  • After a strong increase in September, industrial production slumped 0.1% in October. The Federal Reserve Board said that though manufacturing output was up, strong declines in mining and utilities offset it. Meanwhile, both the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys showed business activity accelerating in November.
  • Falling gas prices helped offset increases in housing costs, leaving the Consumer Price Index relatively unchanged in October. That put the inflation rate for the last 12 months at 1.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, wholesale prices rose 0.2% during the month, putting the wholesale inflation rate for the last 12 months at 1.5%–the lowest annualized rate since February.
  • Housing starts slipped 2.8% during October. However, the Commerce Department said they were 7.8% higher than the previous October, and building permits were up 4.8% for the month. Meanwhile, existing home sales were not only up 1.5% in October, but the year-over-year gain was at its highest level since October 2013. The National Association of Realtors® said the median home-resale price–$208,300–is 5.5% higher than it was in October 2013.

Eye on the Week Ahead

With many traders heading out for the Thanksgiving holiday, light trading volumes could exaggerate any market movements during the holiday-shortened week ahead, which includes revisions to U.S. GDP.

What I’m Watching This Week – 17 November 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Though trading remained within a relatively narrow range, especially compared with recent weeks, the S&P 500 nevertheless managed to hit a new record high, while the Nasdaq’s weekly gain kept it in the lead year-to-date. A fresh drop in oil prices brought the price of West Texas Intermediate crude to roughly $75 a barrel.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 11/14 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17573.93 17634.74 .35% 6.38%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4632.53 4688.54 1.21% 12.26%
S&P 500 1848.36 2031.89 2039.82 .39% 10.36%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1173.32 1173.80 .04% .87%
Global Dow 2484.10 2516.73 2529.28 .50% 1.82%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.32% 2.32% 0 bps -72 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

– The United States and China agreed to take steps to combat climate change. For the first time, China agreed to cap its output of greenhouse gases no later than 2030 and increase its reliance on zero-emission energy sources to 20% by the same deadline. The United States will cut emissions by 17% by 2020 and by 28% by 2025, which would double the current pace at which it is reducing carbon emissions.

– Despite growth in some of the eurozone’s weakest members, the region as a whole was hampered by sluggishness in the larger economies. The eurozone as a whole grew 0.2% during the third quarter, according to the European Union’s statistical agency. Germany expanded just 0.1%, while Italy’s economy contracted for the 11th time in the last 13 quarters. However, Spain’s GDP was up 0.5% and Greece’s increased by 0.7%–the eurozone’s highest Q3 growth rate.

– President Obama urged the Federal Communications Commission to regulate the Internet as a public utility and adopt rules supporting so-called “net neutrality,” which would prevent broadband companies from manipulating transmission speeds or offering a so-called “fast lane” for customers willing to pay more.

– A dispute in the publishing world between Amazon and publisher Hachette ended a months-long dispute over who would set prices for books sold through Amazon. The agreement reportedly would allow Hachette to control the price of its books but give the publisher an incentive to keep prices low.

– Lower gas prices may have helped U.S. retail sales rise 0.3% in September. According to the Commerce Department, sales were up 4.1% from a year ago.

– The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that the number of both new hires and people quitting their jobs increased in September. The number of new hires hit its highest level since December 2007 and the quits rate seen as an indicator of workers’ confidence in their ability to get another job was higher than it’s been since April 2008.

Eye on the Week Ahead

In the wake of the end of quantitative easing, minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be of interest, especially if there are any clues to committee members’ thinking about future interest rate increases. Also on tap are data on the manufacturing sector and inflation.

The Roth 401(k)

Published on by dredheadz

 

Some employers offer 401(k) plan participants the opportunity to make Roth 401(k) contributions. If you’re lucky enough to work for an employer who offers this option, Roth contributions could play an important role in helping enhance your retirement income.

What is a Roth 401(k)?

A Roth 401(k) is simply a traditional 401(k) plan that accepts Roth 401(k) contributions. Roth 401(k) contributions are made on an after-tax basis, just like Roth IRA contributions. This means there’s no up-front tax benefit, but if certain conditions are met, your Roth 401(k) contributions and all accumulated investment earnings on those contributions are free from federal income tax when distributed from the plan. (403(b) and 457(b) plans can also allow Roth contributions.)

Who can contribute?

Unlike Roth IRAs, where individuals who earn more than a certain dollar amount aren’t allowed to contribute, you can make Roth contributions, regardless of your salary level, as soon as you’re eligible to participate in the plan. And while a 401(k) plan can require employees to wait up to one year before they become eligible to contribute, many plans allow you to contribute beginning with your first paycheck.

How much can I contribute?

There’s an overall cap on your combined pretax and Roth 401(k) contributions. You can contribute up to $17,500 of your pay ($23,000 if you’re age 50 or older) to a 401(k) plan in 2014. You can split your contribution any way you wish. For example, you can make $10,000 of Roth contributions and $7,500 of pretax 401(k) contributions. It’s up to you.

But keep in mind that if you also contribute to another employer’s 401(k), 403(b), SIMPLE, or SAR-SEP plan, your total contributions to all of these plans–both pretax and Roth–can’t exceed $17,500 ($23,000 if you’re age 50 or older). It’s up to you to make sure you don’t exceed these limits if you contribute to plans of more than one employer.

Can I also contribute to a Roth IRA?

Yes. Your participation in a Roth 401(k) plan has no impact on your ability to contribute to a Roth IRA. You can contribute to both if you wish (assuming you meet the Roth IRA income limits). You can contribute up to $5,500 to a Roth IRA in 2014, $6,500 if you’re age 50 or older (or, if less, 100% of your taxable compensation).*

Should I make pretax or Roth 401(k) contributions?

When you make pretax 401(k) contributions, you don’t pay current income taxes on those dollars (which means more take-home pay). But your contributions and investment earnings are fully taxable when you receive a distribution from the plan. In contrast, Roth 401(k) contributions are subject to income taxes up front, but qualified distributions of your contributions and earnings are entirely free from federal income tax.

Which is the better option depends upon your personal situation. If you think you’ll be in a similar or higher tax bracket when you retire, Roth 401(k) contributions may be more appealing, since you’ll effectively lock in today’s lower tax rates. However, if you think you’ll be in a lower tax bracket when you retire, pretax 401(k) contributions may be more appropriate. Your investment horizon and projected investment results are also important factors. Before you take any specific action be sure to consult with your own tax or legal counsel.

Are distributions really tax free?

Because your Roth 401(k) contributions are made on an after-tax basis, they’re always free from federal income tax when distributed from the plan. But the investment earnings on your Roth contributions are tax free only if you meet the requirements for a “qualified distribution.”

In general, a distribution is qualified only if it satisfies both of the following:

  • It’s made after the end of a five-year waiting period
  • The payment is made after you turn 59½, become disabled, or die

The five-year waiting period for qualified distributions starts with the year you make your first Roth contribution to your employer’s 401(k) plan. For example, if you make your first Roth contribution to the plan in December 2014, then the first year of your five-year waiting period is 2014, and your waiting period ends on December 31, 2018.

But if you change employers and roll over your Roth 401(k) account from your prior employer’s plan to your new employer’s plan (assuming the new plan accepts Roth rollovers), the five-year waiting period starts instead with the year you made your first contribution to the earlier plan.

If your distribution isn’t qualified (for example, if you receive a payout before the five-year waiting period has elapsed or because you terminate employment), the portion of your distribution that represents investment earnings on your Roth contributions will be taxable, and will be subject to a 10% early distribution penalty unless you are 59½ or another exception applies.

You can generally avoid taxation by rolling your distribution over into a Roth IRA or into another employer’s Roth 401(k), 403(b), or 457(b) plan, if that plan accepts Roth rollovers. (State income tax treatment of Roth 401(k) contributions may differ from the federal rules.)*

What about employer contributions?

While employers don’t have to contribute to 401(k) plans, many will match all or part of your contributions. Your employer can match your Roth contributions, your pretax contributions, or both. But your employer contributions are always made on a pretax basis, even if they match your Roth contributions. That is, your employer’s contributions, and investment earnings on those contributions, are not taxed until you receive a plan distribution.

What else do I need to know?

Like pretax 401(k) contributions, your Roth 401(k) contributions and investment earnings can be paid from the plan only after you terminate employment, incur a financial hardship, attain age 59½, become disabled, or die.

Also, unlike Roth IRAs, you must begin taking distributions from a Roth 401(k) plan after you reach age 70½ (or in some cases, after you retire). But this isn’t as significant as it might seem, since you can generally roll over your Roth 401(k) dollars (other than RMDs themselves) into a Roth IRA if you don’t need or want the lifetime distributions.

Employers aren’t required to make Roth contributions available in their 401(k) plans. So be sure to ask your employer if they are considering adding this exciting feature to your 401(k) plan.

Roth 401(k) Roth IRA
Maximum contribution (2014) Lesser of $17,500 or 100% of compensation Lesser of $5,500 or 100% of compensation
Age 50 catch-up (2014) $5,500 $1,000
Who can contribute? Any eligible employee Only if under income limit
Age 70½ required distributions? Yes No
Potential matching contributions? Yes No
Potential loans? Yes No
Tax-free qualified distributions? Yes, 5-year waiting period plus either 59½, disability, or death Same, plus first time homebuyer expenses (up to $10,000 lifetime)
Nonqualified distributions Pro-rata distribution of tax-free contributions and taxable earnings Tax-free contributions distributed first, then taxable earnings
Investment choices Limited to plan options Virtually unlimited
Bankruptcy protection Unlimited At least $1,245,475 (total of all IRAs)

What I’m Watching This Week – 10 November 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

In the wake of the midterm election results that gave Republicans control of both houses of Congress, domestic equities took a break from their recent volatility. Though the S&P 500’s increase was relatively modest, it still managed to regain the 2,000 level and go on to set three fresh record highs in the process. The Dow industrials not only set their own new record but also had the week’s biggest gain, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 ended the week basically flat. Declines in oil prices continued to make headlines as the price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $80 a barrel.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 11/7 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17390.52 17573.93 1.05% 6.02%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4630.74 4632.53 .04% 10.92%
S&P 500 1848.36 2018.05 2031.89 .69% 9.93%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1173.51 1173.32 -.02% .83%
Global Dow 2484.10 2527.85 2516.73 -.44% 1.31%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.35% 2.32% -3 bps -72 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The U.S. unemployment rate edged down 0.1% to 5.8% in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy added 214,000 jobs, most of them in restaurants, retail, and health care. The new jobs figure was slightly lower than the 222,000 monthly average so far this year. Meanwhile, October’s 3-cent increase brought the average hourly wage to $24.57; that average is up just under 2% over the last 12 months.
  • Saudi Arabia announced it would cut its price for oil sold to U.S. customers and raise prices for Asian customers. On top of increased Alaskan oil production during October, that caused the price of crude oil to drop to its lowest level in more than two years. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it expects demand for OPEC crude oil to fall nearly 2 million barrels a day to 28.2 million barrels a day by the end of 2017.
  • Lower than expected growth in Germany, France, and Italy led the European Commission to cut its growth forecast for next year. The commission said it now sees the eurozone’s 2014 GDP increasing by 0.8% rather than the 1.2% forecast last spring, while the 28-member EU as a whole is now expected to grow 1.3%. The forecast for 2015 is 1.1% growth for the eurozone and 1.5% for the EU. Eurozone inflation is seen stalling at 0.5% this year and 0.8% next year–far below the European Central Bank’s target 2%. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged, though ECB President Mario Draghi once again said fresh stimulus measures will be adopted if necessary.
  • A sluggish global economy also affected the U.S. trade deficit, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A 1.5% decline in exports to the rest of the world was a major reason for September’s nearly 7% increase in the trade gap.
  • S. manufacturing activity declined 0.6% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index suggested a course reversal in October; the index rose 2.4%, and the 59% reading represented the 65th straight month of expansion.
  • S. construction spending was down 0.4% in September as private and public construction fell 0.1% and 1.3% respectively. The Commerce Department said it was the fourth straight monthly decline in private construction spending.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Data from the retail sector will dominate what little economic information is on tap next week. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report also may get extra attention for its implications for the employment picture.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

What I’m Watching This Week – 3 November 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

A robust U.S. GDP reading coupled with the prospect of greater economic stimulus in Japan and additional positive corporate earnings reports helped drive both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 to new record highs. The small caps of the Russell 2000 saw their third straight week of solid gains, which gave the index a positive year-to-date return once again.

Gold tumbled nearly $60 an ounce, hurt in part by the promise of additional monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan. And the benchmark 10-year Treasury retreated as investors regained an appetite for equities risk.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/31 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16805.41 17390.52 3.48% 4.91%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4483.72 4630.74 3.28% 10.87%
S&P 500 1848.36 1964.58 2018.05 2.72% 9.18%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1118.82 1173.51 4.89% .85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2470.50 2527.85 2.32% 1.76%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.29% 2.35% 6 bps -69 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% during the third quarter, according to the initial estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was slightly less than Q2’s 4.6%, but still much stronger than during 2014’s first quarter.
  • As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee finally called a halt to new bond purchases, which have helped support the economy for the last six years by making credit easier to get. The statement said that despite improvements in the labor market and general economy, the committee sees inflation being held in check by lower energy prices. Therefore, it still anticipates the Fed funds interest rate will remain at its current level for “a considerable time.” However, that timetable could be accelerated by unanticipated upticks in inflation and/or employment (or pushed back if either declines).
  • As Fed bond purchases came to an end, the Bank of Japan went in the opposite direction, unexpectedly announcing it will expand its securities purchases. The move is designed to try to reduce the potential for deflation (Japan’s 1% annual inflation rate is far below the central bank’s 2% target). The added buying could make Japanese exports cheaper and help the country’s economy recover from the effects of a sales tax increase in the spring.
  • Durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, much of that was due to a 3.7% decline in the typically volatile transportation sector; excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.2%.
  • Home prices rose in August, but the annual growth rate was the slowest in almost two years. The 0.2% increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index represented a 5.6% annual increase from the previous August, down from July’s 6.7%.
  • Despite a 0.2% increase in personal income in the United States during September, personal consumption fell by an equal amount, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The drop in personal consumption was the first monthly decline since January.

Eye on the Week Ahead

With quantitative easing officially at an end, what’s left of the Q3 corporate earnings season could receive more attention. And as the Fed watches the labor market closely to determine the timing of rate increases, investors will do the same with Friday’s jobs report. The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections also could influence the mood of the markets.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Monthly Market Review – October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

October lived up to its reputation for volatility as triple-digit intraday swings in the Dow became almost commonplace. Despite being spooked for much of the month–at one point the S&P 500 was down almost 8% from its most recent high–both the S&P and the Dow industrials rallied strongly to end the month at fresh all-time records. Generally encouraging corporate earnings from U.S. companies, a strong Q3 GDP, and increased central bank support overseas helped equities markets overcome fears about the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and global concerns about slowing growth and the threat of Ebola.

Increased U.S. energy resources and reduced global demand meant that oil prices continued to drop, ending the month at roughly $80 a barrel. The dollar maintained its September gains against a basket of six foreign currencies; since oil is traded in dollars, a stronger dollar also helped keep oil prices in check. Meanwhile, after a bounce at mid-month, the price of gold plummeted to roughly $1,170 an ounce. Not surprisingly, the volatility in equities caused the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury to fall briefly to its lowest level since June 2013 as investors sought the relative safety of Treasury securities.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Month As of 10/31 Month Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17042.90 17390.52 2.04% 4.91%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4493.39 4630.74 3.06% 10.87%
S&P 500 1848.36 1972.29 2018.05 2.32% 9.18%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1101.68 1173.51 6.52% .85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2534.47 2527.85 -.26% 1.76%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.52% 2.35% -17 bps -69 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

The Month in Review

  • The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% during the third quarter, according to the initial estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was slightly less than Q2’s 4.6%, but still much stronger than during 2014’s first quarter.
  • The 248,000 new jobs created in September helped cut the U.S. unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.9%; it’s the first time since July 2008 that joblessness has been below 6%. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said hiring during the prior two months was stronger than previously thought. However, at least some of the decline in the unemployment rate resulted from 97,000 people, such as retiring baby boomers, dropping out of the labor force. That brought the percentage of people in the workforce to 62.7%–the lowest participation rate since 1978.
  • As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee halted new bond purchases, which have helped support the economy for the last six years by making credit easier to get. The statement said that despite improvements in the labor market and the overall economy, the committee sees inflation being held in check by lower energy prices. Therefore, it still anticipates the Fed funds interest rate will remain at its current level for “a considerable time.” However, that timetable could be accelerated by unanticipated upticks in inflation and/or employment (or pushed back if either declines).
  • As Fed bond purchases came to an end, the Bank of Japan went in the opposite direction, announcing it will expand its securities purchases. The move is designed to prevent potential deflation (Japan’s 1% annual inflation rate is far below the central bank’s 2% target). The added buying could help make Japanese exports cheaper.
  • Eurozone manufacturing output saw its largest monthly decline since late 2008 in August, according to the European Union’s statistical agency. The 4.3% decline in German industrial production was especially unsettling, and September’s 0.3% annual inflation rate in the eurozone–the lowest level in five years–raised concerns about the possibility of deflation. To help combat that weakness, the European Central Bank will expand its bond purchases to include asset-backed securities and certain bank bonds, but declined to lower its key interest rate, at least for the time being.
  • China’s growth rate, while still robust compared to the rest of the world, slowed to 7.3% during the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics–below the 7.5% official target for annual growth. Real estate prices and sales continued to be a soft spot. To try to jump-start lending, China’s central bank plans to inject roughly $33 billion into its banking system.
  • Data on the U.S. housing market was generally encouraging. September’s 2.4% increase in existing-home sales represented the fastest growth of 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors®. New home sales also were up 0.2%, which put them 17% higher than in September 2013, and the Commerce Department said both housing starts and building permits were up for the month. However, home prices were a different story. The 0.2% increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index in August represented the slowest annual growth rate in almost two years.
  • U.S. inflation continued to be well-contained. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September, which left the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% for the last 12 months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said increases in food and housing outweighed a 0.7% drop in energy costs. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell 0.1% in September, largely because of declines in both food and energy costs, though wholesale prices overall are 1.6% higher than in September 2013.
  • Retail sales in the United States slipped 0.3% in September, though the Commerce Department said they were 4.3% ahead of a year earlier. The biggest declines were seen in building and garden supplies, clothing, and nonstore retailers, all of which were down more than 1% during the month.
  • U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September, according to the Commerce Department. However, much of that was due to a 3.7% decline in the typically volatile transportation sector; excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.2%.

Eye on the Month Ahead

With the Fed’s quantitative easing officially at an end and monetary policy meetings on hold until December, equities markets may begin to focus on what’s left of earnings season as well as the jobs and inflation data that will affect future Fed actions. The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections also could influence the mood of the markets.

IRA and Retirement Plan Limits for 2015

Published on by dredheadz

IRA and Retirement Plan Limits for 2015

IRA contribution limits

The maximum amount you can contribute to a traditional IRA or Roth IRA in 2015 is $5,500 (or 100% of your earned income, if less), unchanged from 2014. The maximum catch-up contribution for those age 50 or older remains at $1,000. (You can contribute to both a traditional and Roth IRA in 2015, but your total contributions can’t exceed these annual limits.)

Traditional IRA deduction limits for 2015

The income limits for determining the deductibility of traditional IRA contributions have increased for 2015 (for those covered by employer retirement plans). For example, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution if your filing status is single/head of household and your income (“modified adjusted gross income,” or MAGI) is $61,000 or less (up from $60,000 in 2014). If you’re married and filing a joint return, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution if your MAGI is $98,000 or less (up from $96,000 in 2014). If you’re not covered by an employer plan but your spouse is, and you file a joint return, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution if your MAGI is $183,000 or less (up from $181,000 in 2014).

If your 2015 federal income tax filing status is: Your IRA deduction is reduced if your MAGI is between: Your deduction is eliminated if your MAGI is:
Single or head of household $61,000 and $71,000 $71,000 or more
Married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er)* $98,000 and $118,000 (combined) $118,000 or more (combined)
Married filing separately $0 and $10,000 $10,000 or more

*If you’re not covered by an employer plan but your spouse is, your deduction is limited if your MAGI is $183,000 to $193,000, and eliminated if your MAGI exceeds $193,000.

Roth IRA contribution limits for 2015

The income limits for determining how much you can contribute to a Roth IRA have also increased. If your filing status is single/head of household, you can contribute the full $5,500 to a Roth IRA in 2015 if your MAGI is $116,000 or less (up from $114,000 in 2014). And if you’re married and filing a joint return, you can make a full contribution if your MAGI is $183,000 or less (up from $181,000 in 2014). (Again, contributions can’t exceed 100% of your earned income.)

If your 2015 federal income tax filing status is: Your Roth IRA contribution is reduced if your MAGI is: You cannot contribute to a Roth IRA if your MAGI is:
Single or head of household More than $116,000 but less than $131,000 $131,000 or more
Married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er) More than $183,000 but less than $193,000 (combined) $193,000 or more (combined)
Married filing separately More than $0 but less than $10,000 $10,000 or more

Employer retirement plans

The maximum amount you can contribute (your “elective deferrals”) to a 401(k) plan has increased for 2015. The limit (which also applies to 403(b), 457(b), and SAR-SEP plans, as well as the Federal Thrift Plan) is $18,000 in 2015 (up from $17,500 in 2014). If you’re age 50 or older, you can also make catch-up contributions of up to $6,000 to these plans in 2015 (up from $5,500 in 2014). (Special catch-up limits apply to certain participants in 403(b) and 457(b) plans.)

If you participate in more than one retirement plan, your total elective deferrals can’t exceed the annual limit ($18,000 in 2015 plus any applicable catch-up contribution). Deferrals to 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans, SIMPLE plans, and SAR-SEPs are included in this limit, but deferrals to Section 457(b) plans are not. For example, if you participate in both a 403(b) plan and a 457(b) plan, you can defer the full dollar limit to each plan–a total of $36,000 in 2015 (plus any catch-up contributions).

The amount you can contribute to a SIMPLE IRA or SIMPLE 401(k) plan has increased to $12,500 for 2015, up from $12,000 in 2014. The catch-up limit for those age 50 or older has also increased, to $3,000 (up from $2,500 in 2014).

Plan type: Annual dollar limit: Catch-up limit:
401(k), 403(b), governmental 457(b), SAR-SEP, Federal Thrift Plan $18,000 $6,000
SIMPLE plans $12,500 $3,000

Note: Contributions can’t exceed 100% of your income.

The maximum amount that can be allocated to your account in a defined contribution plan (for example, a 401(k) plan or profit-sharing plan) in 2015 is $53,000 (up from $52,000 in 2014), plus age-50 catch-up contributions. (This includes both your contributions and your employer’s contributions. Special rules apply if your employer sponsors more than one retirement plan.)

Finally, the maximum amount of compensation that can be taken into account in determining benefits for most plans in 2015 has increased to $265,000, up from $260,000 in 2014; the dollar threshold for determining highly compensated employees (when 2015 is the look-back year) is $120,000, up from $115,000 in 2014.

What I’m Watching This Week – 27 October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Relief at last: Investors finally regained some appetite for risk as equities got a break from the recent wave of selling. After four straight weeks of losses, the S&P 500 saw a strong bounce. However, the Nasdaq’s rebound was even bigger and the small caps of the Russell 2000 saw their second consecutive week of robust gains. Though the Dow industrials lagged the other three domestic indices, the rally brought the Dow back into positive territory for the year. The Global Dow also recovered from its slump, nearly managing to break even for the year.

The strong showing in equities helped send the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield up as prices fell. Meanwhile, the price of oil stabilized in the low $80s

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/24 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16380.41 16805.41 2.59% 1.38%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4258.44 4483.72 5.29% 7.35%
S&P 500 1848.36 1886.76 1964.58 4.12% 6.29%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1082.33 1118.82 3.37% -3.85%
Global Dow 2484.10 2409.20 2470.50 2.54% -.55%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.22% 2.29% 7 bps -75 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Sales of existing homes jumped 2.4% during September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. That’s the highest pace of 2014, though the number of sales was 1.7% lower than in the previous September. The $209,700 median sale price was 5.6% higher than a year earlier.
  • Meanwhile, new home sales were up 0.2% in September; the Commerce Department said that put them 17% higher than in September 2013.
  • Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that left the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% for the last 12 months–a level that might give the Federal Reserve some leeway to keep interest rates low. Increases in food and housing outweighed a 0.7% drop in energy costs.
  • China’s growth rate, while still robust compared to the rest of the world, slowed during the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The 7.3% increase in the country’s gross domestic product was slightly lower than Q2’s 7.5% and below the official target for annual growth (also 7.5%). Real estate prices and sales continued to be a soft spot in the Chinese economy.
  • After subjecting 150 European banks to annual stress tests, the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority said only 12 of them needed to raise additional capital as protection against a worst-case scenario. Italy had the most problem banks, with Greece and Cyprus tied for second.
  • Similar stress tests for U.S. banks to be conducted by the Federal Reserve next year will measure how well they would withstand a sharp deterioration in the corporate bond market, especially high-yield bonds issued by highly indebted companies. As in previous years, the tests also will gauge exposure to threats from a variety of factors that include sharp declines in the job market and economic growth, a jump in oil prices to $110 a barrel, and a 60% drop in the stock market. Banks that fail the test could be restricted in their ability to pay dividends or buy back stocks until they address the deficiencies.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Once again, all eyes will be on the Fed as quantitative easing is expected to come to an end. And with recent volatility in the equities markets suggesting investor uncertainty, the first estimate of Q3 gross domestic product is likely to be significant. Also, the release of stress tests conducted on European banks could affect investor perception of the financial system there.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Medical Professionals: A Prescription for Your Financial Health

Published on by dredheadz

The demands on medical practitioners today can seem overwhelming. It’s no secret that health-care delivery is changing, and those changes are reflected in the financial issues that health-care professionals face every day. You must continually educate yourself about new research in your chosen specialty, stay current on the latest technology that is transforming health care, and pay attention to business considerations, including ever-changing state and federal insurance regulations.

Like many, you may have transitioned from medical school and residency to being on your own with little formal preparation for the substantial financial issues you now face. Even the day-to-day concerns that affect most people–paying college tuition bills or student loans, planning for retirement, buying a home, insuring yourself and your business–may be complicated by the challenges and rewards of a medical practice. It’s no wonder that many medical practitioners look forward to the day when they can relax and enjoy the fruits of their labors.

Unfortunately, substantial demands on your time can make it difficult for you to accurately evaluate your financial plan, or monitor changes that can affect it. That’s especially true given ongoing health care reform efforts that will affect the future of the industry as a whole. Just as patients need periodic checkups, you may need to work with a financial professional to make sure your finances receive the proper care.

Maximizing your personal assets

Much like medicine, the field of finance has been the subject of much scientific research and data, and should be approached with the same level of discipline and thoughtfulness. Making the most of your earning years requires a plan for addressing the following issues.

Retirement

Your years of advanced training and perhaps the additional costs of launching and building a practice may have put you behind your peers outside the health-care field by a decade or more in starting to save and invest for retirement. You may have found yourself struggling with debt from years of college, internship, and residency; later, there’s the ongoing juggling act between making mortgage payments, caring for your parents, paying for weddings and tuition for your children, and maybe trying to squeeze in a vacation here and there. Because starting to save early is such a powerful ally when it comes to building a nest egg, you may face a real challenge in assuring your own retirement. A solid financial plan can help.

Investments

Getting a late start on saving for retirement can create other problems. For example, you might be tempted to try to make up for lost time by making investment choices that carry an inappropriate level or type of risk for you. Speculating with money you will need in the next year or two could leave you short when you need that money. And once your earnings improve, you may be tempted to overspend on luxuries you were denied during the lean years. One of the benefits of a long-range financial plan is that it can help you protect your assets–and your future–from inappropriate choices.

Tuition

Many medical professionals not only must pay off student loans, but also have a strong desire to help their children with college costs, precisely because they began their own careers saddled with large debts.

Tax considerations

Once the lean years are behind you, your success means you probably need to pay more attention to tax-aware investing strategies that help you keep more of what you earn.

Using preventive care

The nature of your profession requires that you pay special attention to making sure you are protected both personally and professionally from the financialconsequences of legal action, a medical emergency of your own, and business difficulties. Having a well-defined protection plan can give you confidence that you can practice your chosen profession without putting your family or future in jeopardy.

Liability insurance

Medical professionals are caught financially between rising premiums for malpractice insurance and fixed reimbursements from managed-care programs, and you may find yourself evaluating a variety of approaches to providing that protection. Some physicians also carry insurance that protects them against unintentional billing errors or omissions. Remember that in addition to potential malpractice claims, you also face the same potential liabilities as other business owners. You might consider an umbrella policy as well as coverage that protects you against business-related exposures such as fire, theft, employee dishonesty, or business interruption.

Disability insurance

Your income depends on your ability to function, especially if you’re a solo practitioner, and you may have fixed overhead costs that would need to be covered if your ability to work were impaired. One choice you’ll face is how early in your career to purchase disability insurance. Age plays a role in determining premiums, and you may qualify for lower premiums if you are relatively young. When evaluating disability income policies, medical professionals should pay special attention to how the policy defines disability. Look for a liberal definition such as “own occupation,” which can help ensure that you’re covered in case you can’t practice in your chosen specialty.

To protect your business if you become disabled, consider business overhead expense insurance that will cover routine expenses such as payroll, utilities, and equipment rental. An insurance professional can help evaluate your needs.

Practice management and business planning

Is a group practice more advantageous than operating solo, taking in a junior colleague, or working for a managed-care network? If you have an independent practice, should you own or rent your office space? What are the pros and cons of taking over an existing practice compared to starting one from scratch? If you’re part of a group practice, is the practice structured financially to accommodate the needs of all partners? Does running a “concierge” or retainer practice appeal to you? If you’re considering expansion, how should you finance it?

Questions like these are rarely simple and should be done in the context of an overall financial plan that takes into account both your personal and professional goals.

Many physicians have created processes and products for their own practices, and have then licensed their creations to a corporation. If you are among them, you may need help with legal and financial concerns related to patents, royalties, and the like. And if you have your own practice, you may find that cash flow management, maximizing return on working capital, hiring and managing employees, and financing equipment purchases and maintenance become increasingly complex issues as your practice develops.

Practice valuation

You may have to make tradeoffs between maximizing current income from your practice and maximizing its value as an asset for eventual sale. Also, timing the sale of a practice and minimizing taxes on its proceeds can be complex. If you’re planning a business succession, or considering changing practices or even careers, you might benefit from help with evaluating the financial consequences of those decisions.

Estate planning

Estate planning, which can both minimize taxes and further your personal and philanthropic goals, probably will become important to you at some point. Options you might consider include:

  • Life insurance
  • Buy-sell agreements for your practice
  • Charitable trusts

You’ve spent a long time acquiring and maintaining expertise in your field, and your patients rely on your specialized knowledge. Doesn’t it make sense to treat your finances with the same level of care?

What I’m Watching This Week – 13 October 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Concerns about signs of weaker growth abroad seemed to outweigh domestic corporate earnings reports last week as volatility went extreme. The Dow industrials saw triple-digit swings four days in a row that wiped out all of the index’s year-to-date gains, and both the Dow and the S&P 500 had their worst weeks since May 2012. By the end of the week, the S&P was down 5% from its most recent high (a 10% drop is considered a correction). Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell solidly into correction territory, ending the week down almost 13% from its most recent high in March. The Global Dow also turned negative year-to-date.

The volatility sent investors once again seeking the relative security of U.S. Treasuries. As the price of the benchmark 10-year note has risen, the decline in its yield has accelerated in each of the last four weeks; the 10-year yield ended last week at its lowest level since June 2013.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 10/10 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17009.69 16544.10 -2.74% -.20%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4475.62 4276.24 -4.45% 2.39%
S&P 500 1848.36 1967.90 1906.13 -3.14% 3.13%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1104.74 1053.32 -4.65% -9.48%
Global Dow 2484.10 2493.99 2430.85 -2.53% -2.14%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0% 0%
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.45% 2.31% -14 bps -73 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • Minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee showed that members are worried about slowing global growth. The potential domestic impact of dollar strength, which could become more problematic when interest rates increase, also was a concern, as a stronger dollar could make U.S. exports more expensive and weigh on the domestic economy. Members also wrestled with how to communicate any shift in the committee’s expectations about when a rate increase might occur.
  • European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the already sluggish European economy seems to be slowing further. Coupled with discouraging economic reports out of Germany–exports fell 5.8% in August, and manufacturing output and new orders also were down–Draghi’s statement raised concerns about the financial health of Europe as a whole. To add to the gloom, the International Monetary Fund also lowered its outlook for global growth next year, though its U.S. forecast was more optimistic.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The question of the week will be whether last week’s volatility exhausted negative sentiment or there’s more to come. If domestic Q3 earnings reports and corporate guidance are robust, they might help provide some counterbalance to global pessimism. However, many large U.S. corporations earn a large percentage of their profits overseas; if forward guidance tends to be negative, that could have the opposite effect. Options expiration at week’s end also could affect volatility.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.