Tag: business

What I’m Watching This Week – 14 July 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

After Alcoa’s strong report unofficially kicked off the Q2 earnings season, domestic equities rebounded from two down days. However, investors decided to take advantage of equities’ recent record levels and take some profits after revelations about a banking problem in Portugal revived concerns about Europe’s financial sector. Meanwhile, the spot price of oil, which had spiked to $107 two weeks ago, ended the week just over $100 a barrel.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 7/11 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 17068.26 16943.81 -.73% 2.21%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4485.93 4415.49 -1.57% 5.72%
S&P 500 1848.36 1985.44 1967.57 -0.90% 6.45%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1208.15 1159.93 -3.99% -.32%
Global Dow 2484.10 2638.59 2599.40 -1.49% 4.64%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.65% 2.53% -12 bps -51 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The Federal Reserve currently expects its bond purchases to end in October, according to minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. However, the minutes also reiterated that the end of bond-buying won’t automatically mean higher interest rates, at least not for a “considerable time.” The Fed also will continue to reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds it already holds until after it acts on rates.
  • Talks aimed at trying to address U.S.-China differences over Chinese currency policies began. The United States contends that those policies have kept the yuan artificially low, giving Chinese companies an unfair pricing advantage. Meanwhile, Chinese exports were up 7.2% in June from a year earlier, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.
  • A major Portuguese lender’s failure to make payments on some of its short-term debt raised concerns once again about the stability of European banks and the possibility of contagion. Banco Espirito Santo has been known to be struggling since December, but investor reaction to the disclosure caused several other European companies to postpone bond offerings.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Q2 earnings reports from some major financial and tech companies, due next week, could influence investor thinking about whether Q1’s discouraging GDP really has given way to renewed growth. Housing and inflation data also are likely to be closely watched.

What I’m Watching This Week – 7 July 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

After generally positive economic data once again suggested that the economy really did begin to rebound this spring, the Dow industrials surpassed 17,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 hit three new all-time records during the week. And as investors embraced stocks, worries about the potential impact of a strong economy on potential Fed rate increases also sent the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield up and the price down.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 7/4 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16851.84 17068.26 1.28% 2.97%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4397.93 4485.93 2.00% 7.41%
S&P 500 1848.36 1960.97 1985.44 1.25% 7.42%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1189.49 1208.15 1.57% 3.83%
Global Dow 2484.10 2603.77 2638.59 1.34% 6.22%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.54% 2.65% 11 bps -39 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

    • The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in June; that’s 1.4% lower than a year earlier and the lowest level in almost six years. The economy added 288,000 new jobs during the month, higher than the 272,000 monthly average since March. The data, coupled with upward revisions to payroll figures for April and May, suggested possible acceleration in job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the widespread job gains were led by professional/business services, retail, restaurants/bars, and health care.
    • A 2% increase in new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers put orders at their highest level since late 2013. Even though the Institute for Supply Management’s index showed that manufacturing growth didn’t accelerate in June, it still remained at a healthy 55.3% reading (any number above 50 represents expansion). The ISM’s measure of the services sector also showed slightly slower growth than the previous month, though the reading remained at a robust 56.3%.
    • After three straight monthly increases, new orders for U.S. manufactured goods slipped 0.5% in May, though most of the decline was in the volatile transportation sector. The Commerce Department also said inventories were at their highest level on record and have increased 18 of the last 19 months.
    • Commercial construction spending rose 1.1% in May, but the Commerce Department said that was largely offset by a 1.4% drop in the value of new home projects. The 0.1% overall increase in construction spending was weaker than April’s 0.8% gain, but the annual rate was 6.6% higher than a year ago.
    • As expected, the European Central Bank left two key interest rates unchanged, hoping that measures taken last month will be enough to help stimulate the economy.
    • Higher auto-related exports and less spending on imported oil and consumer goods helped cut the U.S. trade deficit by 5.5% in May to $44.4 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    • The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that closely held, for-profit companies can choose to opt out of a provision of the Affordable Care Act that requires that employees’ insurance include coverage for birth control. The court also ruled that workers who aren’t full-fledged public employees cannot be required to pay fees to a union even if they benefit from its collective bargaining efforts.
    • Two separate assessments suggested that China’s sluggish manufacturing sector may be rebounding. The reading on the Chinese government’s purchasing managers’ index nudged up slightly to 51 in May. Meanwhile, HSBC/Markit’s Manufacturing PMI was basically flat but stayed in expansion territory, apparently responding to small steps taken by the government to stimulate economic growth.

Eye on the Week Ahead

In a week that’s light on fresh economic reports, investors may begin to focus on the Q2 earnings season, which has its unofficial start on Tuesday when Alcoa reports. Minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting could shed new light on the debate over whether the Fed should be concerned yet about inflation.

 

 

 

401(k) Loans

Published on by dredheadz

When You Need Your Money NOW

Ideally, you will never touch your retirement funds, allowing them to grow continuously until you retire. But we don’t live in an ideal world! In case of emergency, the funds in your 401(k) may be available to you in the form of a Loan.

One of the benefits of many 401(k) plans is being able to borrow against your retirement savings in times of need. Currently, about 20 percent of employees eligible for a plan loan have one, and the average outstanding loan balance is approximately $7,600. If your plan has a loan program you have the security of knowing that your money is available “just in case,” which means you can comfortably make a sizable commitment to retirement savings in your plan. Also, if you need money from your plan because of a financial emergency and your plan has a loan program you will be required in most cases to take a loan first. Now, let’s assume you have an unexpected crisis and you need your money – what should you know?

Loan Basics

  • Plans typically allow you to borrow 50 percent of the amount in your plan, up to $50,000.
  • In nearly all cases you must repay the loan in 60 equal monthly payment over a five-year repayment period. The one exception is for a loan that is a mortgage for your primary residence, then the repayment period may be longer.
  • The interest rate you pay will be determined on the day you take the loan. While interest rates vary by plan, the rate most often used is what is termed the “prime rate” plus one percent. You can find the current “prime rate” in the business section of your newspaper.
  • In nearly all cases you will repay your loan through payroll deduction. Only a few companies will allow you to repay in any other way.
  • You can always repay your loan at any time with no penalties.
  • Many plans will permit you to have more than one plan loan.
  • Plan loans usually have a minimum amount requirement, typically $1,000.

Pros and Cons

Plan loans are convenient, but they are not always the right solution. Consider both the positives and negatives to determine if a plan loan is best for you. And always compare the overall cost of a plan loan with other possible loans.

Plan Loan Advantages

 

Less Paperwork: No credit checks or long credit application forms. You may be able to obtain a plan loan simply by visiting your benefits office, calling your plan’s 800 number or going online.
No Restrictions: Most plans let you borrow for any reason. Check your plan.
Fast: You could receive a loan in mere days, depending on how often your plan processes transactions.
Good Rates: The prime rate is the interest rate that banks charge their best customers. The prime rate plus one percent is a very good rate of interest for an individual borrower.
Higher Return: The rate of repayment for your loan may be greater than the rate of return you were receiving on the fixed investments in your plan. For example, if you were to replace assets from your money market fund paying four percent with your plan loan paying seven percent you would be earning a higher rate of return.

 

Plan Loan Disadvantages

 

Loan Default: The consequences of a plan loan default are different than for the default of other types of loans. If you fail to repay the plan loan, you will have to pay both regular federal and state income taxes and if you are under age 59 1/2 an additional federal income tax equal to 10 percent of the outstanding balance.
Fees: 70 percent of all plans charge a one-time loan fee, ranging from $3 to $100. Another 25 percent of plans also charge a yearly service fee, ranging from $3 to $75.
Alters Financial Plan: You’ve done the work to determine your retirement goal and pick the right investment mix. But when you take a plan loan, money must be removed from your plan investments. If plan loan amounts must be taken money from your equity investments this could diminish your overall plan return.
Market Cost: Cash for your loan from selling shares from your stock funds when the market is down, may force you to sell your stock at a loss reducing your long term plan investment return.
Spousal Consent: Some plans require that you get your spouse’s permission for a plan loan.
Lower Returns: The rate of repayment for your loan may be lower than the rate of return you were receiving from the investments in stock in your plan. For example, if you were to replace assets from your diversified equity fund returning ten percent with your plan loan paying seven percent you would be earning a lower rate of return.

 

There is a popular misconception that paying back a plan loan is like “paying yourself.” Unfortunately, this is not true. When you take a loan from your plan, you are withdrawing money from your account balance and replacing it with an IOU. That IOU continues to generate interest from your repayments, but generates no special investment return.

In a sense, all fixed investments are a kind of loan. You are lending money to the government or a corporation through the stable value, money market or bond funds in your plan. However, the return (or interest) generated from these loans comes from a borrowing party. When you loan yourself the money you are simply replacing the interest you would already be receiving with interest payments from yourself.

Plan Loans and Your Investments

To preserve your asset allocation plan when taking a plan loan, you should withdraw the funds for the loan from the fixed income allocation side of your portfolio. Let’s assume you have 50 percent of your money invested in equities and 50 percent invested in fixed income. When you borrow 50 percent of the money in your plan, you want to take the funds entirely from the fixed income side and maintain all the equities. Some plans will ask you to make that determination, others will reduce all of your investments proportionally by the amount of your plan loan. In that event, you need to go back and rebalance the remaining investments to the proper equity and fixed allocation ratios. In others words be sure to take money for your plan loan from your lowest returning investment option.

Warning: Do Not Default on Your Loans

This is crucial: if you leave your current employer, have no outstanding plan loans. Whether you find a new position or you are laid off, in most cases your plan loan will come due when employment ends. You will be given a limited amount of time to pay off your loan, and if you cannot repay it will be placed in default. “In default” means your employer will report to the government that you were unable to pay the loan, and the government will then treat the defaulted amount of your loan as a distribution. This most likely will lead to regular taxes on the defaulted amount plus for those under 59½ the ten percent additional federal income tax penalty. Depending on your tax bracket and the tax rate of your state, you could be forced to pay the government as much as half of the defaulted amount. Some people take a cash advance on their credit card to pay off their plan loan when they change jobs, because 18 percent interest is still better than a 50 percent tax liability.

Monthly Market Review – June 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

After a rocky start, the quarter eventually made up for domestic equities’ earlier losses. As winter weather finally lost its chokehold on the U.S. economy, investors also grew increasingly comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s slow-and-steady approach to unwinding quantitative easing. As a result, they were willing to take on risk again, handing the Dow and S&P their 11th and 22nd all-time record closes of the year. As tech and biotech stocks rebounded from their early-spring slump, they helped push the Nasdaq back to a level it hadn’t seen since March 2000. By June, the small caps of the Russell 2000, which suffered the most in April, had managed to climb back into positive territory for the year, and the Global Dow’s year-to-date performance was more than triple that of its U.S. counterpart.

Bond investors continued to confound Fed-wary pundits, sending the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down as demand pushed up prices. With Iraq joining Ukraine as a source of geopolitical anxiety, concern about oil supplies helped send the spot price above $107 a barrel. And despite some volatility that took the price of gold down to roughly $1,240 an ounce, a June rally allowed it to end the quarter at roughly $1,320.

Market/Index 2013 Close As of 6/30 Month Change Quarter Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16826.60 .65% 2.24% 1.51%
NASDAQ 4176.59 4408.18 3.90% 4.98% 5.54%
S&P 500 1848.36 1960.23 1.91% 4.69% 6.05%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1192.96 5.15% 1.70% 2.52%
Global Dow 2484.10 2605.62 1.61% 4.11% 4.89%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.53% 5 bps -20 bps -51 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Quarterly Economic Perspective

  • The end of winter weather brought greater relief than usual this spring, especially after gross domestic product was shown to have contracted strongly in Q1. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final -2.9% GDP estimate was the worst reading since early 2009 and a far cry from the 2.6% growth of the previous quarter. The BEA said most of the decline was caused by cuts in exports, business investments/inventory, and state and local government spending, while consumers spent more on higher heating costs. The slump caused the Federal Reserve to cut its economic growth forecast for all of 2014 to 2.1%-2.3%. Meanwhile, corporate profits were down 9.1% during the quarter–the largest drop since the end of 2008, according to the BEA.

  • The U.S. economy finally regained all of the jobs lost since the recession officially began in late 2007, and total employment was higher than when it previously peaked in January 2008. Also, the unemployment rate inched downward to 6.3%–its lowest level since September 2008.
  • By the end of the quarter, the housing market had begun to rebound from its winter slowdown as more homes came onto the market. According to the Commerce Department, sales of new single-family homes leaped 18.6% in May, and the National Association of Realtors® said that the 4.9% increase in home resales was the biggest monthly gain in nearly three years. Also, April was a strong month for both housing starts and building permits, though they had tapered off by the end of the quarter.
  • U.S. manufacturing also showed signs of strength. Industrial production rose for three months out of four, according to the Federal Reserve. And after three straight months of increases, durable goods orders slumped in May, but the Commerce Department said non-defense orders were up 0.1%. And once winter weather abated, retail sales also showed gains.
  • By quarter’s end, consumer inflation had risen at the fastest monthly pace (0.4%) in more than a year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the increases were driven by higher prices for housing, food, electricity, and gas. However, Fed Chair Janet Yellen called recent upticks “noisy” data and said the 2.1% inflation rate for the last 12 months isn’t a concern. The past year’s 2% increase in wholesale prices is substantially higher than the 1% of last May, but also within the Fed’s comfort zone. However, one of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauges–personal consumption expenditures–saw its biggest 12-month gain since October 2012, raising questions about possible future inflation.
  • The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee continued to unwind its economic support by cutting $10 billion worth of bond purchases each month. The committee now predicts that additional improvement in the economy and job market in coming months will allow it to increase the current near-zero target rate to 1.2% by the end of 2015 and 2.4% in 2016. Longer-term, however, it sees that rate leveling out around 3.75%.
  • To stimulate lending, the European Central Bank’s key interest rate was cut to -.01%; it’s now essentially charging banks to hold their funds rather than paying interest on deposits. The ECB also said it’s prepared to take additional steps later if necessary. The action is designed to stimulate lending, stave off the threat of deflation, and help jump-start the European economy, which grew 0.3% or less during Q1.
  • The Chinese economy showed signs of slowing. According to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics, the annual growth rate dropped below the official 7.5% target to 7.4%, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index of Chinese manufacturing showed a slight contraction, and housing sales prices fell in half of 70 major cities.

Eye on the Month Ahead

The Fed will be watching the housing market this summer as it considers the timing of future interest rate increases. Also, the second week of July marks the unofficial start of the Q2 corporate earnings season. After the dismal Q1 GDP final reading, those reports may assume even greater significance than usual, as will the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s initial estimate of Q2 economic growth.

Is there a new one-rollover-per-year rule for IRAs?

Published on by dredheadz

Yes–starting in 2015.

The Internal Revenue Code says that if you receive a distribution from an IRA, you can’t make a tax-free (60-day) rollover into another IRA if you’ve already completed a tax-free rollover within the previous 12 months. The long-standing position of the IRS, reflected in Publication 590 and proposed regulations, was that this rule applied separately to each IRA you own.

Using an IRS example, assume you have two traditional IRAs, IRA-1 and IRA-2. You take a distribution from IRA-1 and within 60 days roll it over into your new traditional IRA-3. Under the old rule, you could not make another tax-free 60-day rollover from IRA-1 (or IRA-3) within one year from the date of your distribution. But you could still make a tax-free rollover from IRA-2 to any other traditional IRA.

Recently a taxpayer, Mr. Bobrow, did just what the example above seemed to allow, taking a distribution from IRA-1 and repaying it back to IRA-1 within 60 days, and then taking a distribution from IRA-2 and repaying it back to IRA-2 within 60 days. Unfortunately for the taxpayer, the IRS decided this was no longer the correct interpretation, and told Mr. Bobrow that his transactions violated the one-rollover-per-year rule. The case made its way to the Tax Court, which agreed with the IRS and held that regardless of how many IRAs he or she maintains, a taxpayer may make only one nontaxable 60-day rollover within each 12-month period.

Not surprisingly, the IRS has announced that it will follow the Bobrow case beginning in 2015 (more technically, the new rule will not apply to any rollover that involves a distribution occurring before January 1, 2015). For the rest of 2014 the “old” one-rollover-per-year rule in IRS Publication 590 (see above) will apply to any IRA distributions you receive. But keep in mind that you can make unlimited direct transfers (as opposed to 60-day rollovers) between IRAs–these aren’t subject to the one-rollover-per-year rule. So if you don’t have a need to actually use the cash for some period of time, it’s generally safer to use the direct transfer approach and avoid this potential problem altogether.

(Note: The one-rollover-per-year rule also applies–separately–to your Roth IRAs.)

What I’m Watching This Week – 30 June 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Domestic equities seemed to shrug off a massive downward revision to first-quarter GDP and mostly ended the week flat. Though the Nasdaq’s gain was slight, it was the sixth positive week out of the last seven. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remained low as demand from bond investors continued to support prices.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 6/27 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16947.08 16851.84 -.56% 1.66%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4368.04 4397.93 .68% 5.30%
S&P 500 1848.36 1962.87 1960.97 -.10% 6.09%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1188.42 1189.49 .09% 2.22%
Global Dow 2484.10 2617.86 2603.77 -.54% 4.82%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.63% 2.54% -9 bps -50 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The U.S. economy contracted at a much faster pace in Q1 than anticipated, falling 2.9% (not the 1% recently estimated). The Bureau of Economic Analysis said its unusually steep downward revision of gross domestic product was caused not only by winter weather but also by exports and health-care spending that were both lower than previously thought.
  • The housing market rebounded strongly in May from its winter slump. According to the Commerce Department, sales of new single-family homes leaped 18.6% in May and were almost 17% better than a year earlier. Also, the National Association of Realtors® said the 4.9% increase in resales of existing homes was the biggest monthly gain in nearly three years. However, the NAR also said existing home sales were 5% lower and the number of unsold homes was 6% higher than in May 2013.
  • Data on April home prices also was mixed. Cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index averaged a 1.1% gain in April, for a gain of almost 11% since last April. Boston saw its biggest monthly gain in the index’s 27-year history, and San Francisco had its sixth straight price increase. However, seven cities reported a decline since March, and S&P said year-over-year price gains had begun to slow.
  • U.S. incomes rose faster than personal consumption in May; according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, incomes were up 0.4%, while spending rose 0.2%. Even after adjusting for inflation, incomes were up 0.2% for the second straight month. The bad news? That 0.2% increase in personal consumption expenditures–a key inflation gauge for the Fed–resulted in the biggest 12-month gain since October 2012; further increases could mean inflationary pressure that might affect interest rates.
  • The European Union formalized a trade agreement with Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova–the agreement whose rejection by the former Ukrainian president led to subsequent protests and ultimately Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Shortly thereafter, European leaders told Russia it had until Monday evening to persuade rebels in Ukraine to respect a cease-fire or face further EU economic sanctions.
  • Durable goods orders fell 1% in May after three strong months. However, the Commerce Department said most of the decline was caused by a 31% drop in defense spending on equipment. Other than defense, new orders were up 0.6%.

Eye on the Week Ahead

In a holiday-shortened week, trading volumes are likely to continue to be light. Manufacturing data may suggest whether recent improvements can be sustained. The European Central Bank is scheduled to report on Thursday, but last month’s decision to adopt a negative interest rate likely precludes much immediate change in policy. And as always, the jobs report, issued a day early, will be watched.

IRS Guidance Limits Employer Pre-Tax Subsidies

Published on by dredheadz

The IRS has put the kibosh on any potential attempts by large employers to skirt the requirements of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by paying employees before-tax subsidies to buy individual health insurance through private (commercial) carriers or through a Health insurance Exchange Marketplace. According to a recently published IRS Q&A, such employer payment plans are considered group health plans, and do not conform to the ACA, potentially subjecting the employer to an excise tax of $100 per employee, per day ($36,500 per employee, per year). Essentially, the IRS says employers can’t offer tax-free money to employees for the purpose of buying individual health insurance coverage.

Shared responsibility

Effective 2015, the ACA imposes a shared responsibility mandate on large employers with 100 or more full-time equivalent employees (2016 for employers with 50 or more full-time equivalent employees) to provide qualifying and affordable health insurance to employees or face a penalty. For information on the shared responsibility mandate, see IRS Questions and Answers on Employer Shared Responsibility Provisions Under the Affordable Care Act.

However, some employers might attempt to comply with the ACA mandate by paying employees a before-tax subsidy that they can use to buy their own health insurance from a private insurer or through a Health Insurance Exchange Marketplace. The IRS has determined that these employer payment plans are akin to group health plans. Among other things, the ACA requires that group health plans must provide certain benefits such as preventive screenings without co-pays or other charges. In addition, group health plans cannot impose annual limits on the dollar amount of benefits for any individual. The IRS says these employer pre-tax payment arrangements do not meet the requirements of group health plans under the ACA.

Some ACA provisions unaffected

The IRS essentially prohibits employers from paying tax-free funds to employees to buy individual policies of health insurance. It does not appear to affect other provisions of the ACA, however. For instance, employers can pay taxable funds to workers that they can use to buy their own health insurance. Large employers can elect not to offer any group coverage to employees and pay a penalty of either $2,000 or $3,000 per employee, depending on the circumstances. Or, employers can contract with a private exchange; employers can provide tax-free money to employees, which they can use to shop for coverage on the private exchange, which may provide several health-care plan alternatives. Also, it’s important to note that the employer shared responsibility mandate applies only to large employers; employers with fewer than 50 full-time equivalent workers are not required to offer health insurance coverage to employees. In any case, it’s a good idea for employers to consult with a health care benefits professional to discuss options available under the ACA.

What I’m Watching This Week – 23 June 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Reassurance from the Fed seemed to outweigh the situation in Iraq last week as investors showed greater comfort with taking on more risk. The week’s biggest gains were in the small caps of the Russell 2000, which once again returned to positive territory for the year, while the Nasdaq closed the week at a level it hasn’t seen since April 2000. Meanwhile, the Dow and S&P 500 set new record highs yet again–the 11th so far this year for the Dow, the 22nd for the S&P 500.

 

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 6/20 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16775.68 16947.08 1.02% 2.23%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4310.65 4368.04 1.33% 4.58%
S&P 500 1848.36 1936.15 1962.87 1.38% 6.20%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1162.68 1188.42 2.21% 2.13%
Global Dow 2484.10 2587.94 2617.86 1.16% 5.38%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.60% 2.63% 3 bps -41 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • The Fed’s long/short strategy: The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee predicted that further improvement in the economy and the job market would allow it to raise interest rates slightly faster than previously anticipated. It now sees its current near-zero target rate hitting 1.2% by the end of 2015 and 2.4% in 2016. That’s slightly higher than previous forecasts. However, it also suggested subsequent increases might take rates to only 3.75%–slightly lower than its earlier long-term forecast of 4%. And as expected, Fed bond purchases were once again cut by $10 billion, leaving the monthly total at $35 billion.
  • Despite the projected economic rebound, 2014’s winter-weakened first quarter led the Fed to cut its U.S. growth forecast for the year from the nearly 3% predicted in March to 2.1%-2.3%. The Fed also said the growth rate could bump up above 3% in 2015 but would settle back to a little over 2% in the longer term. Both forecasts are roughly in line with figures from the International Monetary Fund.
  • U.S. manufacturing showed strength in May. Industrial production increased for the third month out of the last four and was up 4.3% from a year ago. The Federal Reserve said May’s 0.6% gain was led by a 1.5% increase in automotive output, and that 79.1% of the nation’s manufacturing capacity was being used. Also, the Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index remained at a multiyear high for the second consecutive month, and the Philly Fed index rose from 15.4 to 17.8–its highest reading since September and the fourth straight positive month.
  • Consumer prices rose in May at the fastest pace in more than a year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the 0.4% increase was broad-based, but was driven largely by higher prices for housing, food, electricity, airfares, and gas (food prices jumped more than in any month in almost three years, and groceries were up 0.7% for the month). The increases put the overall consumer inflation rate for the last year at 2.1%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that though recent upticks have left inflation a bit on the high side, it’s basically in line with the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Housing starts slumped 6.5% in May, according to the Commerce Department, but were still 9.4% higher than in May 2013. Building permits–an indicator of future activity–also fell, and the 6.4% decline left them nearly 2% lower than a year ago.

 Eye on the Week Ahead

New and existing home sales will suggest whether the summer housing market is picking up, while consumer spending also will be of interest. Depending on the situation in Iraq, oil prices could start to become a bigger factor in investor thinking.

What I’m Watching This Week – 16 June 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

Equities took a break across the board from their recent upward surge. After fresh all-time record closes early in the week, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials saw profit-taking that also returned the small caps of the Russell 2000 to negative territory for the year. Renewed conflict in Iraq contributed to equities’ swoon, raising concerns about global oil supplies and pushing oil to roughly $107 a barrel.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 6/13 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16924.28 16775.68 -.88% 1.20%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4321.40 4310.65 -.25% 3.21%
S&P 500 1848.36 1949.44 1936.15 -.68% 4.75%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1165.21 1162.68 -.22% -.08%
Global Dow 2484.10 2599.33 2587.94 -.44% 4.18%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.60% 2.60% 0 bps -44 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Headlines

  • U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in May and were 4.3% higher than a year earlier. The Department of Commerce said the biggest increases were seen at auto and auto parts dealers, building/garden supplies stores, and miscellaneous store retailers such as florists, office suppliers, and used-merchandise stores.
  • Wholesale prices fell 0.2% in May, leaving the wholesale inflation rate for the last 12 months at 2%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that’s down slightly from the previous month, but substantially higher than the 1% of last May. The decline in prices at the final stage of wholesale distribution was evenly split between goods and services. Inflation is one of the measures being watched by the Federal Reserve as it unwinds its bond-buying efforts.
  • The World Bank cut its estimate of 2014 global economic growth to 2.8% rather than the 3.2% it predicted in January. The Global Economic Prospects report said developing countries have been especially hurt by bad weather in the United States, a slowing housing market in China, political conflicts, and slow progress on structural economic reform; the report sees emerging-market growth at 4.8% this year rather than 5.3%. However, 2015 is expected to be better, with a 3.4% global growth rate and 5.4% growth in the developing economies.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Fed is expected to once again reduce its monthly bond purchases, and options expiration at the end of the week could mean volatility as traders on the wrong side of equities’ recent surge attempt to manage those positions. U.S. manufacturing data and the state of the oil market also could influence the mood of the markets.

What I’m Watching This Week – 9 June 2014

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets

For the third straight week, both large- and small-cap indices surged upward. Once again, the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials set new record highs, while the small caps of the Russell 2000 returned to positive territory for the year. The enthusiasm for equities took a toll on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, whose yield rose as prices fell.

Market/Index 2013 Close Prior Week As of 6/6 Weekly Change YTD Change
DJIA 16576.66 16717.17 16924.28 1.24% 2.10%
Nasdaq 4176.59 4242.62 4321.40 1.86% 3.47%
S&P 500 1848.36 1923.57 1949.44 1.34% 5.47%
Russell 2000 1163.64 1134.50 1165.21 2.71% .13%
Global Dow 2484.10 2564.35 2599.33 1.36% 4.64%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.04% 2.48% 2.60% 12 bps -44 bps

Last Week’s Headlines

    • The U.S. economy has finally regained all of the jobs lost during the recession that officially began in December 2007. The 217,000 jobs created in May put total employment at 138.4 million–higher than the previous peak recorded in January 2008. It was the fourth straight month in which the number of new jobs has exceeded 200,000. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%. Also, including workers who are underemployed would put the unemployment rate at 12.2%, down from a peak of 17.2%.
    • Going negative: To encourage lending, the European Central Bank cut the interest rate it pays banks for holding their deposits to -0.1%; rather than paying interest on deposits, it’s essentially charging banks for holding their cash. The ECB also cut its refinancing rate–the rate banks must pay when they borrow from the ECB–from 0.25% to 0.15%. President Mario Draghi said the ECB will offer targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) in September and December, which will allow banks to borrow up to three times the amount they lend out, and may also buy certain asset-backed securities. Draghi also said the ECB is prepared to do more if these measures don’t do enough to stimulate the economy.
    • The Environmental Protection Agency announced a sweeping plan to cut carbon pollution nationwide from existing power plants by 30% below 2005 levels. The plan would give individual states a year in which to identify how they would meet the target between now and 2030, and give the public 120 days to comment on the EPA’s proposal.
    • U.S. manufacturing continued to rebound. The Commerce Department said the 0.7% increase in factory orders in April (fueled in part by orders for military equipment) was the third straight monthly increase. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index also showed acceleration, rising 0.5% to 55.4% in May. The ISM said the services sector, which represents a larger segment of the economy, saw even stronger gains, rising 1.1% in May to 56.3%.
    • Construction spending also was up in April, according to the Commerce Department. The 0.2% increase from March put spending 8.6% above the same time last year. Residential construction was up 0.1% for the month, while commercial construction slid 0.1%. Spending on public projects such as schools and highways rose 0.8%.
    • The U.S. trade deficit rose more than 6% in April as imports hit a record high of more than $240 billion and exports slowed for the fourth month out of the last five. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the growth in imports stemmed largely from spending on foreign autos, computers, food, and consumer goods.
    • Anecdotal reports from the Federal Reserve’s “beige book” report showed the economy continued to improve along with the weather. All 12 districts reported economic expansion, and upward pressure on wages, which could trigger inflation, remained subdued.

Eye on the Week Ahead

In a week light on economic data that could serve as a catalyst for market movements, trading volumes that also have been light in recent weeks could magnify any volatility. Investors–at least those that aren’t on vacation–will try to assess whether recent upward movement reflects an economy emerging from winter worries or a last surge before summer doldrums set in.