Tag: stock-market

The Markets (as of market close January 10, 2025)

Stocks fell sharply last week as favorable economic data furthered sentiment that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated for a longer period of time this year. Each of the benchmark indexes lost value with only energy and health care advancing, while the remaining market sectors ended the week in the red. Crude oil prices rose to levels not seen since October as new sanctions against Russia’s oil sector raised concerns of global supply disruptions. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the week at their highest levels in 14 months. The dollar index closed at its strongest rate since 2022. Gold prices climbed above $2,700.00 per ounce, extending gains for the fourth straight session.

A tech rally boosted the NASDAQ (1.2%) and the S&P 500 (0.6%) last Monday. The Global Dow gained 0.5%, while the Dow and the Russell 2000 each fell 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed the session at 4.61%. The surge in crude oil prices ended with prices tumbling 0.7% to $73.48 per barrel. The dollar lost 0.6%, while gold prices fell 0.3%.

The prior day’s tech rally proved short-lived as stocks tumbled last Tuesday. The NASDAQ fell 1.9%, followed by the S&P 500 (-1.1%), the Russell 2000 (-0.7%), the Dow (-0.4%), and the Global Dow (-0.3%). Investors may have surmised that favorable economic conditions will support fewer interest rate cuts, which dragged stocks lower, but sent bond yields higher. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.68% after gaining 6.5 basis points. Crude oil prices rose 0.9% to $74.25 per barrel. The dollar advanced 0.4%, and gold prices rose 0.7%.

Stocks closed mixed last Wednesday as the Dow (0.3%) and the S&P 500 (0.2%) advanced, while the Russell 2000 (-0.5%), the Global Dow (-0.2%), and the NASDAQ (-0.1%) edged lower. Ten-year Treasury yields closed the session at 4.69%, near their highest level since 2008. Crude oil prices fell 1.3% to $73.30 per barrel. The dollar (0.4%) and gold prices (0.6%) climbed higher.

The U.S. stock market and the Nasdaq stock exchange were closed last Thursday, which was declared a national day of mourning for deceased President Jimmy Carter.

Wall Street took a tumble last Friday. A strong jobs report (see below) dampened hopes of more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The small caps of the Russell 2000 declined 2.2%. The Dow and the NASDAQ each lost 1.6%. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, while the Global Dow dipped 1.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose to 4.77%, the dollar rose 0.4%, and gold prices increased 1.1%. Crude oil prices jumped 3.7%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Employment rose by 256,000 in December, well above the 2024 average monthly gain of 186,000. In December, employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December following a job loss in November. Employment for October was revised up by 7,000 to 43,000 but was revised down in November by 15,000 to 212,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined was 8,000 lower than previously reported. Employment rose by 2.2 million in 2024, down from 3.0 million in the previous year. The total number of unemployed in December was 6.9 million, a reduction of 235,000 from the November total. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. After increasing earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has been either 4.1% or 4.2% for the past seven months. In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 103,000 to 1.6 million but was up by 278,000 from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%, while the employment-population ratio rose 0.2 percentage point to 60.0%. In December, average hourly earnings rose by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $35.69. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%. The average workweek was 34.3 hours for the fifth month in a row.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index reached a 33-month high of 56.8 in December following a reading of 56.1 in November. According to a survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global, the services sector saw a strengthening in business activity and new orders in December as customers showed a greater willingness to spend following the results of the presidential election. With the number of orders growing, companies increased employment for the first time in five months. Meanwhile, cost inflation eased to the slowest pace in almost a year, with charges rising only modestly.
• The goods and services trade deficit report, released January 7, was for November 2024 and revealed the trade deficit was $78.1 billion, 6.2% above the October deficit. November exports were $273.4 billion, 2.7% more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, 3.4% more than October imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $93.9 billion, or 13.0%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $111.5 billion, or 4.0%. Imports increased $205.3 billion, or 5.8%.
• According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million in November but was down by 833,000 from a year earlier. Job openings increased in professional and business services (+273,000), finance and insurance (+105,000), and private educational services (+38,000) but decreased in information (-89,000). The number of hires in November increased marginally at 5.3 million but was 300,000 under the November 2023 rate. The number of total separations in November was little changed at 5.1 million but was down by 287,000 over the year.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.047 per gallon on January 6, $0.041 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.026 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of January 6, the East Coast price climbed $0.034 to $2.990 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.063 to $2.938 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.042 to $2.655 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.018 to $2.899 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.023 to $3.793 per gallon.
• For the week ended January 4, there were 201,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s level. This was the lowest level in 11 months. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 28 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 28 was 1,867,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 21 were New Jersey (2.4%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Minnesota (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), Alaska (2.0%), California (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Montana (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 28 were in Michigan (+7,881), New Jersey (+5,731), Pennsylvania (+5,319), Massachusetts (+3,611), and Connecticut (+3,348), while the largest decreases were in California (-9,263), Texas (-8,351), Florida (-1,691), North Carolina (-1,456), and Tennessee (-1,412).

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s plenty of important economic data released this week. Most of the economic reports will cover December and include annual figures for 2024. Most investors will pay particular attention to the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, and the report on industrial production.

The Markets (as of market close January 3, 2025)

A rise in values last Friday wasn’t enough to prevent stocks from closing generally lower last week. Each of the benchmark indexes declined to start the new year, with the exception of the Russell 2000. Among the market sectors, only energy, utilities, real estate, and health care advanced, while consumer discretionary fell the furthest. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the week where they began. Crude oil prices reached a two-month high, driven by cold weather in Europe and the U.S. coupled with growing optimism over increasing Chinese demand. The dollar remained near its highest levels in two years as investors banked on continuing U.S. economic resilience and fewer interest rate cuts. Gold prices rose following a dip in prices the previous week.

Stocks closed lower for a third straight session last Monday to begin the final trading days of 2024. Tech shares, which had been the bellwether of the market all year, took a tumble, along with consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and communication services. The NASDAQ declined 1.2%, followed by the S&P 500 (-1.1%), the Dow (-1.0%), the Russell 2000 (-0.8%), and the Global Dow (-0.7%). Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.54%, a loss of 7.4 basis points. Crude oil prices gained 0.8% to close at $71.14 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices slid 0.4%.

Wall Street ended December and 2024 on a bit of a sour note. Megacaps declined for the second straight day, pulling stocks lower last Tuesday. The NASDAQ fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Dow dipped 0.1%. The Russell 2000 and the Global Dow each edged up 0.1%. Crude oil prices continued to climb higher following news that China’s manufacturing activity grew in December for the third straight month. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up 2.8 basis points to 4.57%. The dollar and gold prices advanced.

The first day of trading in the new year saw stocks get off to a rough start, continuing the slump that marked the end of 2024. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Russell 2000 closed up, and that was by just 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.4%, the Global Dow declined 0.3%, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each ended the session down 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields remained at 4.57%. Crude oil prices continued to surge, gaining 2.0% to close at $73.12 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.7%, and gold prices advanced 1.1%.

Stocks closed higher last Friday, led by a surge in tech shares. The NASDAQ advanced 1.8% followed by the Russell 2000 (1.7%), the S&P 500 (1.3%), the Dow (0.8%), and the Global Dow (0.4%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up 0.2 basis points to settle at 4.59%. Crude oil prices rose for the fourth straight session, gaining 1.2%. The dollar and gold prices declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• According to the survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global, the manufacturing sector ended 2024 trending lower. After advancing in November, December saw a sharp reduction in new orders, while the rate of decline in production quickened. Business confidence waned and input costs to manufacturers rose sharply, prompting an increase in selling prices. One plus is that employment increased modestly for the second straight month. At 49.4, the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ fell from November’s rate of 49.7, indicating that manufacturing declined.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.006 per gallon on December 30, $0.018 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.083 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 30, the East Coast price ticked up $0.011 to $2.956 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.060 to $2.875 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price slid $0.034 to $2.613 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.006 to $2.881 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.005 to $3.770 per gallon.
• For the week ended December 28, there were 211,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 21 was 1.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 21 was 1,844,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 14,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 14 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.1%), Illinois (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Montana (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 21 were in New Jersey (+4,085), Kentucky (+2,135), Missouri (+2,108), Connecticut (+2,088), and Tennessee (+2,018), while the largest decreases were in New York (-965), Florida (-883), West Virginia (-473), Minnesota (-368), and Kansas (-295).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Heading into the new year, all eyes will be on the December employment figures, released at the end of this week. Employment rose by 227,000 in November, although the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to the jobs report as it relates to the Fed’s primary policy goals of full employment and 2.0% inflation. A favorable jobs report supports moderation in the timing of further interest rate reductions.

The Markets (as of market close December 27, 2024)

Christmas week saw stocks climb higher, despite a tumble last Friday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, led by the Global Dow and the NASDAQ. Scant holiday trading amplified market moves during the week. Information technology led the market sectors, with health care, communication services, utilities, financials, and energy also outperforming. Bond values receded, pushing yields higher. The dollar edged up, while gold prices ticked lower. Crude oil prices gained after falling the previous week.

A surge in tech shares helped drive stocks generally higher last Monday. The NASDAQ led the benchmark indexes listed here, climbing 1.0%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.7%), the Global Dow (0.4%), and the Dow (0.2%). The small caps of the Russell 2000 dipped 0.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 7.5 basis points to 4.59%. Crude oil prices inched up 0.2% to settle at $69.59 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%, while gold prices fell 0.7%.

A “Santa Claus rally” saw stocks move higher on Christmas Eve. Megacaps led the surge, propelling the NASDAQ up 1.4%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.1%, the Russell 2000 climbed 1.0%, the Dow rose 0.9%, and the Global Dow added 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields were unchanged from the prior day, closing at 4.59%. Crude oil prices gained 1.2% to reach $70.10 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices gained 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Stocks moved very little last Thursday during a light day of trading. The Russell 2000 was the only index listed here that made a noticeable move after gaining 0.9%, while the Global Dow inched up 0.2%. The NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Dow each moved less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.57%. Crude oil prices fell 0.8% to close at $69.55 per barrel. The dollar ticked down 0.1%, while gold prices gained 0.7%.

Last Friday saw stocks tumble, rocked by a late-week megacap swoon. The Russell 2000 lost 1.6%, the NASDAQ declined 1.5%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Dow dropped 0.8%, and the Global Dow slipped 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up to 4.61%. The dollar dipped 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.8%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• New orders for long-lasting goods decreased 1.1% in November following an 0.8% increase in October. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, led the overall decrease, declining 2.9%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in November decreased 0.6%. New orders for defense capital goods in November declined 12.5%.
• November saw sales of new single-family homes increase 5.9% from the previous month and 8.7% above the November 2023 rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800. The inventory of new houses for sale at the end of November represented a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate.
• The international trade in goods deficit rose 4.7% in November. Exports increased 4.4% and imports advanced 4.5%. Since November 2023, the international trade in goods deficit increased by 16.1%. During that period, exports rose 6.1% and imports advanced 9.6%.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.024 per gallon on December 23, $0.008 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.092 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 23, the East Coast price ticked down $0.046 to $2.945 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.051 to $2.935 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.085 to $2.647 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price gained $0.048 to $2.887 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.010 to $3.775 per gallon.
• For the week ended December 21, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 14 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 14 was 1,910,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 7 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Illinois (1.7%), Montana (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 14 were in Nebraska (+392), Kentucky (+378), Colorado (+169), Rhode Island (+141), and Delaware (+98), while the largest decreases were in New York (-6,807), Texas (-5,405), California (-5,279), Pennsylvania (-4,724), and Georgia (-4,662).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This is expected to be a slow week in the market and for important economic data. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey for December is available this week. The manufacturing sector has been slowly picking up steam heading into the new year. It is possible that the December purchasing managers’ index will actually show growth, which hasn’t happened in quite some time.

The Markets (as of market close November 29, 2024)

Thanksgiving week proved to be a positive one for stocks. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed higher, led by the Dow and the Russell 2000. Financials, consumer staples, and industrials led the market sectors, with only energy and communication services declining. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell for the second consecutive week. Crude oil prices declined despite an apparent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The dollar lost about 1.7% for the week, while gold prices declined 2.0%.

The Dow reached a new high last Monday as stocks closed generally higher. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%) and the Global Dow (0.5%). The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each climbed 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.27% after falling 14.5 basis points. The dollar, which had been rallying, declined 0.6%, while gold prices snapped a five-day winning streak after losing 3.1%. Crude oil prices slid 3.1%, settling at $69.07 per barrel.

Both the S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.3%) reached record highs last Tuesday. The NASDAQ gained 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) and the Global Dow (-0.1%) declined. Investors wrestled with the potential economic effects of President-elect Trump’s trade tariffs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at 4.30%. Crude oil prices slid to $68.63 per barrel. Gold prices rose 0.6% and the dollar inched up 0.1%.

Stocks fell the day before Thanksgiving as each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the session in the red, with the exception of the Russell 2000, which ticked up 0.1%. The NASDAQ fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Dow declined 0.3%. The Global Dow was flat. Crude oil prices closed at $68.76 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.24%. The dollar declined 0.9%, while gold prices rose 0.6%. Investors saw the likelihood of another interest rate reduction in December diminish after the latest data showed inflation ticked up in October and over the last 12 months (see below), indicating that movement toward the Fed’s 2.0% target has stalled.

The week ended as it began with stocks closing higher. The S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.4%) reached record highs. The NASDAQ gained 0.8%, the Global Dow rose 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 edged up 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields lost 6.4 basis points to close at 4.17%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.1%, while gold prices increased 0.7%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The second estimate for the third-quarter gross domestic product revealed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, unchanged from the initial estimate. In the second quarter, GDP increased 3.0%. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, rose 3.5% in the third quarter. Nonresidential fixed investment advanced 3.8%, while residential fixed investment declined 5.0%. Exports rose 7.5% and imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, advanced 10.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index increased 1.5% and 2.1% excluding food and energy.
• Personal income increased 0.6% in October, while disposable personal income, personal income less personal current taxes, increased 0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. The PCE price index increased 0.2% in October. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. Since October 2023, the PCE price index rose 2.3%. The PCE price index less food and energy increased 2.8% for the year.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 0.2% following two consecutive monthly decreases. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, advancing 0.5%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in October increased 1.4%, while new orders for defense capital goods in October decreased 4.0%.
• The advance report on international trade in goods for October showed the deficit was $99.1 billion, down $9.6 billion, or 8.8%, from the September estimate. Exports of goods for October were $168.7 billion, $5.6 billion, or 3.2%, less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $267.8 billion, $15.2 billion, or 5.4% less than September imports.
• Sales of new single-family homes dropped 17.3% in October and fell 9.4% over the last 12 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800. Inventory in October sat at a supply of 9.5 months.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.044 per gallon on November 25, $0.002 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.194 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 25, the East Coast price ticked up $0.008 to $3.011 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.016 to $2.866 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.006 to $2.635 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.089 to $2.828 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.009 to $3.884 per gallon.
• For the week ended November 23, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 16 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 16 was 1,907,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 9 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Alaska (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Illinois (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), and New York (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 16 were in Utah (+538), Minnesota (+381), Missouri (+252), Idaho (+200), and Louisiana (+199), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,088), Georgia (-1,952), New Jersey (-1,423), Texas (-1,160), and Ohio (-1,125).

Eye on the Week Ahead

One of the most closely watched of all economic indicators is the employment situation report, which is released this week for November. October saw the labor force increase by a scant 12,000. However, Hurricane Milton may have impacted the surveys that support the employment data. It would not be surprising to see October’s figures increase as more data is made available. However, the consensus for November, at about 125,000, is well below the monthly average for the year.

The Markets (as of market close November 22, 2024)

Wall Street enjoyed a solid week of gains, rebounding from the prior week’s losses. Each of the benchmark indexes climbed higher, led by the small caps of the Russell 2000, as investors moved from mega caps to cyclical stocks, which are influenced largely by the economy. Communication services was the only market sector to close in the red, while the remaining sectors moved higher, led by utilities, consumer staples, real estate, and materials. Crude oil prices gained nearly 6.5% last week, driven by increasing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The dollar and gold prices moved higher as investors sought safe-haven assets, in light of increasing geopolitical risks.

Last week began with stocks closing generally higher as the information technology sector rebounded from a tough prior week. The NASDAQ and the Global Dow each advanced 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Russell 2000 ticked up 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.1%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slid to 4.41%. Crude oil prices rose 3.3% to settle at $69.22 per barrel, driven higher by growing concerns over supply cuts. The dollar declined 0.5%, while gold prices advanced 1.8%.

Stocks closed mostly higher last Tuesday, led by the NASDAQ (1.0%), followed by the Russell 2000 (0.8%), and the S&P 500 (0.4%). The Dow dipped 0.3% and the Global Dow fell less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.37%, a decrease of 3.5 basis points. Gold prices rose for the second straight session after gaining 0.8%. The dollar dipped 0.1%. Crude oil prices increased 0.7% to $69.64 per barrel.

The Dow ended a streak of daily losses last Wednesday after closing up 0.3%. The Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 were flat, while the Global Dow (-0.3%), and the NASDAQ (-0.1%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields closed up 1.7 basis points to 4.41%. Crude oil prices slipped 0.2%, falling to $69.12 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.4% and gold prices advanced 0.8%. Investors were pensive as they awaited the earnings report from a major AI company.

Wall Street saw a rally last Thursday, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing higher as investors shifted toward cyclical stocks. The economy showed evidence of strengthening as jobless claims fell to nearly a seven-month low (see below), and sales of existing homes rebounded in October. The Russell 2000 led the benchmarks, gaining 1.7%, the Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 and the Global Dow each climbed 0.5%, while the NASDAQ ticked up less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 2.6 basis points to reach 4.43%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.0%, settling at $70.13 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The dollar (0.3%) and gold prices (0.8%) advanced.

The markets closed on a positive note last Friday. The Russell 2000 gained 1.8% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%), the Global Dow (0.4%), the S&P 500 (0.3%), and the NASDAQ (0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.41%. Crude oil continued to surge, climbing 1.6%. The dollar and gold prices also advanced.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• October saw a downturn in new home construction and completions. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of issued residential building permits fell 0.6% in October and 7.7% from a year earlier. Building permits for single-family homes rose 0.5% last month. Housing starts dropped 3.1% in October and were 4.0% under the October 2023 estimate. Single-family housing starts decreased 6.9% in October. Housing completions declined 4.4% last month but were 16.8% above the October 2023 rate. Completions of single-family homes in October were 1.4% below the September rate.
• Sales of existing homes rose in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing-home sales rose 3.4% last month and were up 2.9% since October 2023. The expanding economy, job growth, and increased inventory helped drive sales higher. Total housing inventory sat at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.3 months in September but up from 3.6 months in October 2023. The median existing-home price in October was $407,200 ($406,700 in September), up 4.0% from one year ago ($391,600). Single-family home sales accelerated 3.5% in October and were 4.1% above the prior year’s pace. The median existing single-family home price was $412,200 in October, ahead of the September price of $411,400, and 4.1% above the October 2023 price of $396,000. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78% as of November 14. That’s down from 6.79% one week ago and 7.44% one year ago.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.046 per gallon on November 18, $0.006 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.243 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 18, the East Coast price ticked up $0.001 to $3.003 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.016 to $2.882 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price dipped $0.001 to $2.629 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.158 to $2.917 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.049 to $3.875 per gallon.
• For the week ended November 16, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 9 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 9 was 1,908,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 2 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Washington (1.7%), Alaska (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), Oregon (1.4%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 9 were in California (+5,906), New Jersey (+2,439), New York (+2,327), Minnesota (+1,889), and Texas (+1,275), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-4,072), Kansas (-599), Wisconsin (-436), Ohio (-305), and North Dakota (-284).

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s plenty of potentially market-moving economic information released this week. Two reports will draw the most attention: the second estimate of third-quarter GDP and the report on personal income and outlays. The October release showed GDP advanced 2.8%, while consumer spending rose 3.7%. Also last month, personal income rose 0.3%, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%, and consumer prices rose 0.2%.

The Markets (as of market close November 15, 2024)

Last week saw stocks close markedly lower as investors were discouraged by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who put a damper on the likelihood of another interest rate decrease this year. Among the market sectors, energy, financials, and utilities closed the week higher, while the remaining sectors ended the week in the red, led by health care, which saw stocks fall after President-elect Trump’s appointment of Robert Kennedy as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered near the highest level since June, reflecting the diminished probability of interest rate cuts. Crude oil and gold prices declined, while the dollar advanced.

Stocks closed higher last Monday as both the Dow (0.7%) and the S&P 500 (0.1%) reached record highs. The Russell 2000 led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 1.5%, while the NASDAQ and the Global Dow each ticked up 0.1%. Consumer discretionary and financials led the market sectors. Crypto-related companies saw sharp gains. Gold dropped 2.4%, extending losses and falling to its lowest level in a month. Crude oil prices declined 3.1% to $68.20 per barrel, pulled lower by a strong dollar (+0.5%) and concerns over China’s waning demand for crude. The bond market was closed in observance of Veterans Day.

The market saw its rally end last Tuesday. Investor preference for risk cooled amid concerns about the economy and inflation, which prompted profit-taking following recent market highs. The Russell 2000 (-1.8%) and the Global Dow (-1.3%) declined the furthest, followed by the Dow (-0.9%), the S&P 500 (-0.3%), and the NASDAQ (-0.1%). Ten-year Treasury yields gained 12.4 basis points to 4.43%. Crude oil prices closed at $68.10 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%. Gold prices fell 0.4%.

Of the benchmark indexes listed here, the Dow and the S&P 500 barely edged higher last Wednesday, while the Russell 2000 (-0.9%), the NASDAQ (-0.3%), and the Global Dow (-0.2%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 4.45%. Crude oil prices dipped to $68.04 per barrel. The dollar continued to rise, gaining 0.4%, while gold prices fell 1.0%. Investors may be exercising caution following the latest Consumer Price Index (see below), which showed disinflation has stalled a bit.

Stocks declined on Thursday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that there was no urgency to lower interest rates given the strength of the economy. The small caps of the Russell 2000 declined for the third straight day after dropping 1.4%. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each fell 0.6%. The Dow lost 0.5% and the Global Dow dipped 0.3%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped 3.3 basis points to end the session at 4.41%. Crude oil prices increased for the first time last week, closing at $68.70 per barrel. The dollar advanced 0.4%, while gold prices declined 0.5%.

Last Friday saw stocks close sharply lower with each of the benchmark indexes listed here losing value. The NASDAQ dropped 2.2%, the Russell 2000 fell 1.4%, the S&P 500 declined 1.3%, the Dow decreased 0.7%, and the Global Dow slid 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed up at 4.44%. Crude oil prices fell 2.4%, the dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices declined for the fifth straight session.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in October, the same increase as in each of the previous three months. For the 12 months ended in October, the CPI increased 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from the same period ended in September. Prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October and 3.3% over the last 12 months. Prices for shelter rose 0.4% in October, accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Food prices also increased over the month. Prices for energy were unchanged over the month after declining 1.9% in September.
• The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in October following a 0.1% bump in September. Producer prices moved up 2.4% for the 12 months ended in October. Most of the October increase can be traced to a 0.3% in crease in prices for services. Goods prices inched up 0.1%. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3% in October after moving up 0.1% in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5%.
• Retail and food services sales rose 0.4% in October and increased 2.8% for the 12 months ended in October. Retail trade sales were up 0.4% last month and up 2.6% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 7.0% from October 2023, while food services and drinking places sales increased 4.3% over the same period.
• Import prices rose 0.3% in October following a 0.4% decline in September. The October increase was the largest one-month advance since April 2024. Fuel prices rose 1.5% last month after declining 7.5% in September, marking the largest monthly increase since April 2024. Despite the October increase, import fuel prices declined 13.6% for the year ended in October. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.2% for the second consecutive month in October. Import prices increased 0.8% from October 2023 to October 2024. Prices for exports increased 0.8% in October, which was the largest monthly rise since August 2023. Higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports in October contributed to the monthly increase. Despite the October rise, export prices declined 0.1% over the past year.
• According to the Federal Reserve’s latest report, industrial production declined 0.3% in October after falling 0.5% the previous month. A strike at a major producer of civilian aircraft, coupled with the lingering effects of Hurricanes Milton and Helene contributed to the October decline. Manufacturing fell 0.5% last month, while mining and utilities rose 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. Industrial production in October was 0.3% below its year-earlier level.
• October 2024, the first month of fiscal year 2025, saw a monthly government deficit of $257.5 billion, well above the $66.6 billion deficit reported for October 2023. Government receipts were $326.8 billion, while expenditures totaled $584.2 billion.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.052 per gallon on November 11, $0.017 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.297 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 11, the East Coast price increased $0.010 to $3.002 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.071 to $2.866 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.011 to $2.630 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.028 to $3.075 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.021 to $3.924 per gallon.
• For the week ended November 9, there were 217,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 2 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 2 was 1,873,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended October 26 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Washington (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Alaska (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 2 were in California (+3,825), Michigan (+3,439), Ohio (+1,911), New Jersey (+1,317), and Kansas (+870), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,530), Georgia (-1,303), Missouri (-797), New York (-469), and Washington (-364).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The focus is on the housing sector this week. The report on housing starts for October is out on Tuesday. September saw the number of housing starts and issued building permits decline. Also out this week is the report on existing home sales for October. Sales fell in September from the previous month as did the median sales price.