Tag: stock-market

The Markets (as of market close February 14, 2025)
The markets ended the week higher, despite falling retail sales (see below) and ever-changing tariff proposals from the administration. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained ground, led by the Global Dow and the NASDAQ. Information technology and consumer staples led the market sectors, while consumer discretionary, health care, and financials underperformed. Crude oil prices trended lower, as did the dollar. Gold prices eked out a weekly gain.

Last week began on a high note as stocks made notable gains. The NASDAQ rose 1.0%, driven higher by gains in major tech stocks. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, while the Dow and the Russell 2000 each advanced 0.4%. The Global Dow increased 0.3%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up to 4.49%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.0% to $72.44 per barrel on mounting supply concerns. The dollar index gained 0.3%, while gold prices rose 1.6%.

Stocks struggled last Tuesday following the announcement of new tariffs, which fueled concerns over a possible trade war. In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Open Market Committee was in no hurry to cut interest rates as the strength of the economy affords the chance to wait for inflationary pressures to move closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target. The Global Dow (0.4%) and the Dow (0.3%) climbed higher, while the S&P 500 was flat on the day. The Russell 2000 (-0.5%) and the NASDAQ (-0.4%) trended lower. Ten-year Treasury yields pushed higher, closing the session at 4.53%. Crude oil prices climbed 1.2% to settle at $73.17 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices lost value.

Last Wednesday saw stocks close mostly lower, with only the Global Dow (0.4%) adding value, while the NASDAQ was unchanged from the previous day. The Russell 2000 fell 0.8%, the Dow dropped 0.5%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.3%. January’s hot inflation report (see below) reinforced the cautious approach taken by the Fed, quelling hopes of interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Ten-year Treasury yields moved higher, reaching 4.63% by the close of trading. Crude oil prices gave back gains from the prior day, falling 2.7% to $71.31 per barrel. The dollar broke even, while gold prices dipped 0.3%.

Stocks climbed higher last Thursday despite a second batch of higher-than-expected inflation data. The NASDAQ gained 1.5%, the Global Dow rose 1.3%, the Russell 2000 advanced 1.2%, the S&P 500 moved up 1.0%, and the Dow added 0.8%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries cooled after dropping 11.2 basis points to close at 4.52%. Crude oil prices ticked up to $71.46 per barrel. The dollar lost 0.8%, while gold prices gained 1.0%.

Wall Street struggled to maintain gains last Friday, ending the session with mixed results. The NASDAQ and the Global Dow each rose 0.4%, while the Dow declined 0.4%. The Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 essentially broke even. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked lower, settling at 4.47%. Crude oil prices fell 1.1%. The dollar index slid 0.5%. Gold prices fell 1.7%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 2/14	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,303.40	44,546.08	0.55%	4.71%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,523.40	20,026.77	2.58%	3.71%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,025.99	6,114.63	1.47%	3.96%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,279.71	2,279.98	0.01%	2.23%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,116.15	5,116.15	2.63%	7.97%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.48%	4.47%	-1 bps	-10 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	108.06	106.79	-1.18%	-1.52%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$71.02	$70.54	-0.68%	-1.70%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$2,889.30	$2,894.30	0.17%	9.69%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in January, the largest one-month increase since August 2023. The January advance followed monthly advances of 0.4% in December and 0.3% in November. Excluding food and energy (core prices), prices rose 0.4% last month. Shelter costs rose 0.4% in January, accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly all items increase. Energy prices rose 1.1% over the month, as gasoline prices increased 1.8%. Prices for food also increased in January, rising 0.4%. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices increased 3.0%, after rising 2.9% over the 12 months ending December. Core prices rose 3.3% over the last 12 months. Over the same period, energy prices advanced 1.0% and prices for food increased 2.5%. While consumer prices have been ticking higher over the past several months, the January data offered more stark evidence that inflation is on the rise again, even before newly proposed tariffs influenced consumer prices.
• Wholesale prices moved higher in January. According to the latest report, the Producer Price Index rose 0.4% last month following an upwardly revised December increase of 0.5%. In January, prices for services increased 0.3%, and prices for goods advanced 0.6%. Prices less food and energy rose 0.3% in January, while prices less food, energy, and trade services also advanced 0.3%. Over the last 12 months, producer prices have risen 3.5%, the same increase as occurred for the 12 months ended in December.
• Retail sales, a measure of consumer spending, fell 0.9% in January but were up 4.2% from the previous year’s total. Excluding sales from motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations, retail sales fell 0.5% last month. Retail trade sales were down 1.2% from December 2024 but up 4.0% from last year. Sales for motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 6.4% from last year, while sales at food service and drinking places were up 5.4% from January 2024.
• Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.3% in January after advancing 0.2% in December. Higher fuel (+3.2%) and nonfuel (+0.1%) prices in January contributed to the overall increase in import prices. Prices for U.S. imports advanced 1.9% from January 2024 to January 2025. U.S. export prices rose 1.3% in January following a 0.5% advance the previous month. The January increase was the largest monthly advance since May 2022. U.S. export prices increased 2.7% over the past year, the largest 12-month advance since the year ended December 2022.
• Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5% in January after moving up 1.0% in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the earlier resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output declined 0.1% in January, held down by a 5.2% decrease in manufacturing of motor vehicles and parts. Mining fell 1.2%, while utilities jumped 7.2%, as cold temperatures boosted the demand for heating. Total IP in January was 2.0% above its year-earlier level.
• The government deficit for January was $129.0 billion, $42.0 billion higher than the December deficit and $106.0 billion above the January 2024 deficit. Through the first four months of the fiscal year, the total deficit sits at $840.0 billion, over $300.0 billion higher than the cumulative deficit over the same period last year.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.128 per gallon on February 10, $0.046 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.064 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 10, the East Coast price rose $0.031 to $3.050 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.066 to $2.985 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.017 to $2.692 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.053 to $3.020 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.107 to $4.031 per gallon.
• For the week ended February 8, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 1 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 1 was 1,850,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week’s level. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 25 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), Minnesota (2.6%), California (2.4%), Illinois (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), Montana (2.3%), Pennsylvania (2.2%), Connecticut (2.0%), Michigan (2.0%), and New York (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 1 were in New York (+3,964), California (+3,418), Georgia (+1,049), Kansas (+855), and Texas (+798), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-978), Massachusetts (-854), Michigan (-493), Kentucky (-446), and Montana (-299).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The housing sector is prevalent this week with the latest data on housing starts and existing home sales for January. December saw both housing starts and completions surge, while the number of issued building permits lagged. Sales of existing homes increased in December and were up over 9.0% from a year earlier.

The Markets (as of market close February 7, 2025)

The markets closed lower last week as investors reacted to the possibility of additional tariffs from the Trump administration, the potential for rising inflation, a weak earnings report from a major Megacap, and a lower-than-expected jobs report. Of the indexes listed here, only the Global Dow managed to eke out a weekly gain. The remaining indexes closed lower, led by the Dow and the NASDAQ. Ten-year Treasury yields rebounded last Friday, but not enough to keep from ending last week lower. Crude oil prices declined nearly 3.5%, primarily due to increasing trade tensions, particularly with China.

Wall Street reacted bearishly last Monday following the White House’s announcement of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. Stocks got a minor boost later in the day after tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports were temporarily delayed by President Trump. Nevertheless, each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the day in the red, with the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ both falling 1.2%. The Global Dow declined 1.1%. The S&P 500 gave back 0.8%, while the Dow lost 0.3%. Crude oil prices inched up 0.5% to settle at $72.88 per barrel. However, tariffs on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico, if reinstituted, could send prices higher for gasoline and heating oil. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.54%. The dollar and gold prices ticked higher.

Stocks reversed course last Tuesday, ending the trading session higher as investors contemplated the latest tensions concerning global trade. Traders got some encouragement following President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days. The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ each gained 1.4% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here. The S&P 500 and the Global Dow each rose 0.7%, while the Dow climbed 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.51%. Crude oil prices declined to $72.53 per barrel. The dollar index lost 0.9%, while gold prices increased 0.6%.

Last Wednesday saw stocks push higher for the second straight day. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.1%, followed by the Global Dow (0.8%), the Dow (0.7%), and the NASDAQ (0.2%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries slid 9.1 basis points to 4.42%, a seven-week low. Crude oil prices fell 2.1%, settling at $71.18 per barrel after a report that showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude oil inventories. The dollar slipped 0.3%, while gold prices rose 0.2%.

The benchmark indexes listed here closed last Thursday with mixed results as investors awaited earnings reports from some major companies and Friday’s jobs report. The Dow (-0.3%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.4%) declined. The NASDAQ and the Global Dow rose 0.5%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up to 4.44%. Crude oil prices continued to tumble, falling to $70.54 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.4%.

Stocks tumbled to close out the week last Friday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the session in the red, led by the NASDAQ, which lost 1.4%. The Russell 2000 slid 1.2%, while both the Dow and the S&P 500 fell 1.0%. The Global Dow dipped 0.5%. Ten-year Treasury yields added 4.7 basis points to close at 4.48%. Crude oil prices rose 0.5%. The dollar index gained 0.3%, while gold prices advanced 0.4%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 2/7	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,544.66	44,303.40	-0.54%	4.13%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,627.44	19,523.40	-0.53%	1.10%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,040.53	6,025.99	-0.24%	2.45%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,287.69	2,279.71	-0.35%	2.22%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,094.27	5,116.15	0.43%	5.21%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.56%	4.48%	-8 bps	-9 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	108.49	108.06	-0.40%	-0.35%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$73.61	$71.02	-3.52%	-1.03%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$2,833.20	$2,889.30	1.98%	9.51%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• There were 143,000 new jobs added in January, which fell short of expectations. However, upward revisions in November (+49,000) and December (+51,000) combined to account for 100,000 new jobs. In January, job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry. The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.0% in January, and the total number of unemployed changed little at 6.8 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.4 million, declined by about 100,000 in January and accounted for 21.1% of all unemployed persons. Last month, both the labor participation rate (62.6%) and the employment-population ratio (60.1%) ticked up 0.1 percentage point. In January, average hourly earnings rose by $0.17, or 0.5%, to $35.87. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%. The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours in January.
• Manufacturing expanded in January amid a surge in confidence. Both output and new orders grew last month. New business increased for the first time since June 2024 on improving customer demand and greater confidence in the economy. According to the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™, the PMI® rose to 51.2 in January, up from 49.4 in December.
• Growth continued in the services sector in January but at a slower pace than in the previous month. The S&P Global US Services PMI® registered 52.9 in January, down from 56.8 in December. The survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global noted that business activity slowed in January as new orders declined somewhat. In fact, some survey respondents reported that the unusually freezing weather conditions seen in parts of the country may have been behind the slowdown in growth. Despite the slowdown in output, job creation reached a 31-month high as more than 42% of respondents predicted an increase in activity over the coming year.
• The number of job openings declined by about 560,000 in December, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. The number of job openings decreased by 1.3 million in 2024 from a year earlier. The number of job openings decreased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, and finance and insurance. Job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation. In December, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million but was down by 325,000 over the year. Total separations in December, which include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, were relatively unchanged at 5.3 million. In December, the number of quits was little changed at 3.2 million but declined by 242,000 over the year.
• The goods and services trade deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion, or 24.7%, from the November deficit. December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion, or 2.6%, less than November exports. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion, or 3.5%, more than November imports. For 2024, the goods and services deficit increased $133.5 billion, or 17.0%, from 2023. Exports increased $119.8 billion, or 3.9%. Imports increased $253.3 billion, or 6.6%.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.082 per gallon on February 3, $0.021 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.054 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 3, the East Coast price fell $0.057 to $3.019 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.027 to $2.919 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.013 to $2.709 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.047 to $2.967 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.043 to $3.924 per gallon.
• For the week ended February 1, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 25 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 25 was 1,886,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 18 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.8%), Minnesota (2.5%), Illinois (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Washington (2.3%), California (2.2%), Michigan (2.2%), Montana (2.2%), Alaska (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), and Puerto Rico (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 25 were in Washington (+441), Iowa (+317), Wisconsin (+151), Kansas (+67), and Wyoming (+2), while the largest decreases were in California (-14,003), Michigan (-9,589), Missouri (-4,144), Illinois (-3,220), and Texas (-2,352).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data for January is available this week with the release of the latest Consumer Price Index report. December saw prices rise 0.4% for the month and 2.9% for the 12 months ended in December.

The Markets (as of market close January 31, 2025)

Stocks trended higher for much of last week until Friday, when a Friday slide pulled several of the benchmark indexes listed here lower. Only the Dow and the Global Dow ended the week with gains, while the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 finished in the red. Last Friday, word that the president would enforce tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico cooled investors’ appetite for risk, sending bond yields and the dollar higher. Crude oil prices ended the week on an uptick but not enough to prevent prices from closing last week lower.

Wall Street got off to a rough start last Monday as the tech sector took a dive, particularly several chip makers. The NASDAQ fell 3.1%, while the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and the Russell 2000 (-1.1%) trended lower. The Dow (0.7%) and the Global Dow (0.2%) closed higher. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.52% as investors shunned stocks for bonds. Crude oil prices dipped to $73.05 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices closed in the red.

Last Tuesday, tech shares rebounded from the prior day’s downturn, leading stocks higher. The NASDAQ led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 2.0% by the close of trading. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9%, the Dow rose 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 added 0.2%. The Global Dow fell 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.55%. Crude oil prices reversed a stretch of losses, gaining 1.1% to settle at $74.00 per barrel. The dollar advanced 0.5%, while gold prices rose 1.2%.

Stocks trended lower last Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, as expected. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 eac fell 0.5%, the Dow lost 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.2%. The Global Dow inched up 0.2%. Investors turned their focus to an upcoming batch of key corporate earnings, while continuing to assess potential tariffs and other aspects of President Trump’s economic policy. Ten-year Treasury yields remained unchanged at 4.55%. Crude oil prices slipped 1.2% to $72.92 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices each ticked up 0.1%.

Last Thursday saw stocks close higher after a choppy day of trading. The Russell 2000 (1.1%) and the Global Dow (0.7%) led the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the S&P 500 (0.5%), the Dow (0.4%), and the NASDAQ (0.3%). Ten-year Treasury yields dipped 4.3 basis points to 4.51%. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices rose 2.1%. Crude oil prices gained 0.8% to settle at $73.17 per barrel.

Stocks gave up gains last Friday after news that President Trump was pushing ahead with tariffs against China, Canada, and Mexico. The Russell 2000 lost 0.9%, followed by the Dow (-0.8%), the Global Dow (-0.6%), the S&P 500 (-0.5%), and the NASDAQ (-0.3%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries gained 5.7 basis points to settle at 4.56%. Crude oil prices climbed nearly 1.0%. The dollar jumped 0.7%, while gold prices fell 0.4%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 1/31	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,424.25	44,544.66	0.27%	4.70%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,954.30	19,627.44	-1.64%	1.64%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,101.24	6,040.53	-1.00%	2.70%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,307.74	2,287.69	-0.87%	2.58%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,062.76	5,094.27	0.62%	4.76%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.62%	4.56%	-6 bps	-1 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	107.44	108.49	0.98%	0.05%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$74.56	$73.61	-1.27%	2.58%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$2,778.70	$2,833.20	1.96%	7.38%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Federal Open Market Committee met last week and decided, unanimously, to maintain the current federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%. While noting that both the economy and the labor market remained solid, inflation stayed elevated. The Committee made its decision despite President Trump’s request that it cut interest rates. Subsequent to the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed needed to allow the economic policies of the Trump administration to be articulated prior to making any assessment.
• According to the advance estimate, gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The third quarter GDP rose 3.1%. The increase in GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending (4.2%) and government spending (2.5%) that were partly offset by a decrease in investment (-5.6%). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased 0.8%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.5%.
• In December, personal income rose 0.4%, compared to a 0.3% increase in November. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, jumped from 0.4% in November to 0.7% last month. Prices consumers paid for goods and services increased 0.3% in December after inching up 0.1% the previous month. Consumer prices less food and energy increased 0.2% last month following a 0.1% advance in November.
• Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in December and 6.7% above the December 2023 estimate. For 2024, sales were 2.5% above the 2023 figure. Total inventory sat at an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales price was $427,000 in December, higher than the November price of $402,500 and above the December 2023 estimate of $418,300. For 2024, the average median sales price was $420,100. The average sales price in December was $513,600 ($485,000 in November), which exceeded the December 2023 price of $493,000. For 2024, the average sales price was $512,200 ($514,000 for 2023).
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased 2.2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This followed a 2.0% November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3%. Excluding defense, new orders fell 2.4%. Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, drove the December decline, falling 7.4%. From December 2023, new orders for durable goods fell 1.5%.
• The advance report on the international trade in goods showed the deficit was $122.1 billion in December, up $18.6 billion, or 18.0%, from November. Exports of goods for December were $167.5 billion, $7.8 billion, or 4.5% less than November exports. Imports of goods for December were $289.6 billion, $10.8 billion, or 3.9%, more than November imports.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.103 per gallon on January 27, $0.006 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.008 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of January 27, the East Coast price climbed $0.007 to $3.076 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.039 to $2.946 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.005 to $2.696 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.009 to $2.920 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.010 to $3.881 per gallon.
• For the week ended January 25, there were 207,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 18 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 18 was 1,858,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 11 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), California (2.5%), Minnesota (2.5%), Illinois (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Montana (2.1%), Puerto Rico (2.1%), Alaska (2.0%), Michigan (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), and West Virginia (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 18 were in California (+5,725), West Virginia (+649), Arkansas (+312), the District of Columbia (+195), and Oklahoma (+135), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-9,351), Texas (-7,323), Ohio (-5,314), Illinois (-5,304), and Georgia (-4,692).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week’s focus is on the labor sector with the releases of the JOLTS report and the employment situation. Overall, employment has been steady, which has factored into the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain rates.

The Markets (as of market close January 24, 2025)

Wall Street closed up last week as investors considered the bevy of executive orders issued by President-elect Donald Trump during his first week in office. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the week higher, led by the Global Dow and the Dow. Communication services, health care, and industrials outperformed among the market sectors, while energy lagged. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked higher. Crude oil prices dropped nearly 4.5%, the largest weekly decline since November. The dollar index extended its decline to a one-month low. Gold reached its highest level since October.

With the U.S. stock market closed last Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, investors had a little extra time to consider the impact of President Trump’s moves after his first day in office. Market gains were broad-based, with health care and industrials leading the sectors. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here advanced, led by the Russell 2000, which gained 1.9%. The Dow moved up 1.2%, followed by the S%P 500 (0.9%), while the NASDAQ and the Global Dow each advanced 0.6%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.57%. Crude oil prices declined 2.3% to close at about $76.09 per barrel. The dollar fell 1.3%, while gold prices rose 0.2%.

Stocks continued to rally last Wednesday. The NASDAQ gained 1.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow rose 0.3%, and the Global Dow edged up 0.1%. The Russell 2000 declined 0.6%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up to 4.59%. Crude oil prices fell 0.6% to $75.41 per barrel. The dollar index moved up 0.2%, and gold prices climbed 0.3%.

Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains last Thursday, with the S&P 500 (0.5%) reaching its first record high of 2025. The Dow added 0.9%, the Global Dow rose 0.8%, the Russell 2000 advanced 0.5%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed to 4.63%. Crude oil prices fell again, closing at $74.28 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices edged lower.

The rally for stocks stalled last Friday as tech shares struggled. Among the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Global Dow (1.3%) was able to tick higher. The NASDAQ (-0.5%) fell the furthest, while the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 each declined 0.3%. The decline in crude oil prices continued, ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.62%, the dollar slumped, while gold prices rose 0.5%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 1/24	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	43,487.83	44,424.25	2.15%	4.42%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,630.20	19,954.30	1.65%	3.33%
S&P 500	5,881.63	5,996.66	6,101.24	1.74%	3.73%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,275.88	2,307.74	1.40%	3.48%
Global Dow	4,863.01	4,951.44	5,062.76	2.25%	4.11%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.60%	4.62%	2 bps	5 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	109.39	107.44	-1.78%	-0.92%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$77.99	$74.56	-4.40%	3.90%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$2,739.60	$2,778.70	1.43%	5.31%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Sales of existing homes rose 2.2% in December, the strongest pace since February 2024. Year over year, sales increased 9.3%. Total inventory sat at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace. The median existing home price was $404,400 in December, unchanged from the November figure but 6.0% above the December 2023 estimate. Single-family home sales advanced 1.9% in December and were up 10.1% from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $409,300 in December, marginally ahead of the November rate, and up 6.1% from December 2023. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96% as of January 23. That’s down from 7.04% one week ago but up from 6.69% one year ago.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.109 per gallon on January 20, $0.066 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.047 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of January 20, the East Coast price climbed $0.071 to $3.069 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.086 to $2.985 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.026 to $2.691 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.032 to $2.911 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.061 to $3.871 per gallon.
• For the week ended January 18, there were 223,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 11 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 11 was 1,899,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 4 were Rhode Island (3.2%), New Jersey (3.1%), Minnesota (2.7%), Washington (2.5%), Illinois (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), California (2.3%), Connecticut (2.2%), Montana (2.2%), and Pennsylvania (2.2%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 11 were in Michigan (+14,985), California (+12,731), Texas (+11,439), Illinois (+5,634), and Missouri (+4,845), while the largest decreases were in New York (-15,396), Washington (-3,877), Wisconsin (-3,830), Oregon (-2,954), and Minnesota (-2,046).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for the first time this year, when the Committee is expected to keep the federal funds rate range at its current 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will be paying particular attention to any indications from the Fed of future interest rate decreases. An inflation indicator favored by the Fed is the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is out this week for December. Also available is the first iteration of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2024.

The Markets (as of market close January 10, 2025)

Stocks fell sharply last week as favorable economic data furthered sentiment that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated for a longer period of time this year. Each of the benchmark indexes lost value with only energy and health care advancing, while the remaining market sectors ended the week in the red. Crude oil prices rose to levels not seen since October as new sanctions against Russia’s oil sector raised concerns of global supply disruptions. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the week at their highest levels in 14 months. The dollar index closed at its strongest rate since 2022. Gold prices climbed above $2,700.00 per ounce, extending gains for the fourth straight session.

A tech rally boosted the NASDAQ (1.2%) and the S&P 500 (0.6%) last Monday. The Global Dow gained 0.5%, while the Dow and the Russell 2000 each fell 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed the session at 4.61%. The surge in crude oil prices ended with prices tumbling 0.7% to $73.48 per barrel. The dollar lost 0.6%, while gold prices fell 0.3%.

The prior day’s tech rally proved short-lived as stocks tumbled last Tuesday. The NASDAQ fell 1.9%, followed by the S&P 500 (-1.1%), the Russell 2000 (-0.7%), the Dow (-0.4%), and the Global Dow (-0.3%). Investors may have surmised that favorable economic conditions will support fewer interest rate cuts, which dragged stocks lower, but sent bond yields higher. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.68% after gaining 6.5 basis points. Crude oil prices rose 0.9% to $74.25 per barrel. The dollar advanced 0.4%, and gold prices rose 0.7%.

Stocks closed mixed last Wednesday as the Dow (0.3%) and the S&P 500 (0.2%) advanced, while the Russell 2000 (-0.5%), the Global Dow (-0.2%), and the NASDAQ (-0.1%) edged lower. Ten-year Treasury yields closed the session at 4.69%, near their highest level since 2008. Crude oil prices fell 1.3% to $73.30 per barrel. The dollar (0.4%) and gold prices (0.6%) climbed higher.

The U.S. stock market and the Nasdaq stock exchange were closed last Thursday, which was declared a national day of mourning for deceased President Jimmy Carter.

Wall Street took a tumble last Friday. A strong jobs report (see below) dampened hopes of more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The small caps of the Russell 2000 declined 2.2%. The Dow and the NASDAQ each lost 1.6%. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, while the Global Dow dipped 1.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose to 4.77%, the dollar rose 0.4%, and gold prices increased 1.1%. Crude oil prices jumped 3.7%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 1/10	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	42,732.13	41,938.45	-1.86%	-1.42%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,621.68	19,161.63	-2.34%	-0.77%
S&P 500	5,881.63	5,942.47	5,827.04	-1.94%	-0.93%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,268.47	2,189.23	-3.49%	-1.84%
Global Dow	4,863.01	4,868.29	4,801.42	-1.37%	-1.27%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.60%	4.77%	17 bps	20 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	108.92	109.65	0.67%	1.12%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$74.00	$76.65	3.58%	6.81%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$2,650.70	$2,717.10	2.50%	2.98%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Employment rose by 256,000 in December, well above the 2024 average monthly gain of 186,000. In December, employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December following a job loss in November. Employment for October was revised up by 7,000 to 43,000 but was revised down in November by 15,000 to 212,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined was 8,000 lower than previously reported. Employment rose by 2.2 million in 2024, down from 3.0 million in the previous year. The total number of unemployed in December was 6.9 million, a reduction of 235,000 from the November total. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. After increasing earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has been either 4.1% or 4.2% for the past seven months. In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 103,000 to 1.6 million but was up by 278,000 from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%, while the employment-population ratio rose 0.2 percentage point to 60.0%. In December, average hourly earnings rose by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $35.69. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%. The average workweek was 34.3 hours for the fifth month in a row.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index reached a 33-month high of 56.8 in December following a reading of 56.1 in November. According to a survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global, the services sector saw a strengthening in business activity and new orders in December as customers showed a greater willingness to spend following the results of the presidential election. With the number of orders growing, companies increased employment for the first time in five months. Meanwhile, cost inflation eased to the slowest pace in almost a year, with charges rising only modestly.
• The goods and services trade deficit report, released January 7, was for November 2024 and revealed the trade deficit was $78.1 billion, 6.2% above the October deficit. November exports were $273.4 billion, 2.7% more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, 3.4% more than October imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $93.9 billion, or 13.0%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $111.5 billion, or 4.0%. Imports increased $205.3 billion, or 5.8%.
• According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million in November but was down by 833,000 from a year earlier. Job openings increased in professional and business services (+273,000), finance and insurance (+105,000), and private educational services (+38,000) but decreased in information (-89,000). The number of hires in November increased marginally at 5.3 million but was 300,000 under the November 2023 rate. The number of total separations in November was little changed at 5.1 million but was down by 287,000 over the year.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.047 per gallon on January 6, $0.041 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.026 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of January 6, the East Coast price climbed $0.034 to $2.990 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.063 to $2.938 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.042 to $2.655 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.018 to $2.899 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.023 to $3.793 per gallon.
• For the week ended January 4, there were 201,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s level. This was the lowest level in 11 months. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 28 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 28 was 1,867,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 21 were New Jersey (2.4%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Minnesota (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), Alaska (2.0%), California (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Montana (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 28 were in Michigan (+7,881), New Jersey (+5,731), Pennsylvania (+5,319), Massachusetts (+3,611), and Connecticut (+3,348), while the largest decreases were in California (-9,263), Texas (-8,351), Florida (-1,691), North Carolina (-1,456), and Tennessee (-1,412).

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s plenty of important economic data released this week. Most of the economic reports will cover December and include annual figures for 2024. Most investors will pay particular attention to the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, and the report on industrial production.

The Markets (as of market close January 3, 2025)

A rise in values last Friday wasn’t enough to prevent stocks from closing generally lower last week. Each of the benchmark indexes declined to start the new year, with the exception of the Russell 2000. Among the market sectors, only energy, utilities, real estate, and health care advanced, while consumer discretionary fell the furthest. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the week where they began. Crude oil prices reached a two-month high, driven by cold weather in Europe and the U.S. coupled with growing optimism over increasing Chinese demand. The dollar remained near its highest levels in two years as investors banked on continuing U.S. economic resilience and fewer interest rate cuts. Gold prices rose following a dip in prices the previous week.

Stocks closed lower for a third straight session last Monday to begin the final trading days of 2024. Tech shares, which had been the bellwether of the market all year, took a tumble, along with consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and communication services. The NASDAQ declined 1.2%, followed by the S&P 500 (-1.1%), the Dow (-1.0%), the Russell 2000 (-0.8%), and the Global Dow (-0.7%). Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.54%, a loss of 7.4 basis points. Crude oil prices gained 0.8% to close at $71.14 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices slid 0.4%.

Wall Street ended December and 2024 on a bit of a sour note. Megacaps declined for the second straight day, pulling stocks lower last Tuesday. The NASDAQ fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Dow dipped 0.1%. The Russell 2000 and the Global Dow each edged up 0.1%. Crude oil prices continued to climb higher following news that China’s manufacturing activity grew in December for the third straight month. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up 2.8 basis points to 4.57%. The dollar and gold prices advanced.

The first day of trading in the new year saw stocks get off to a rough start, continuing the slump that marked the end of 2024. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Russell 2000 closed up, and that was by just 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.4%, the Global Dow declined 0.3%, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each ended the session down 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields remained at 4.57%. Crude oil prices continued to surge, gaining 2.0% to close at $73.12 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.7%, and gold prices advanced 1.1%.

Stocks closed higher last Friday, led by a surge in tech shares. The NASDAQ advanced 1.8% followed by the Russell 2000 (1.7%), the S&P 500 (1.3%), the Dow (0.8%), and the Global Dow (0.4%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up 0.2 basis points to settle at 4.59%. Crude oil prices rose for the fourth straight session, gaining 1.2%. The dollar and gold prices declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 1/3	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	42,992.21	42,732.13	-0.60%	0.44%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,722.03	19,621.68	-0.51%	1.61%
S&P 500	5,881.63	5,970.84	5,942.47	-0.48%	1.03%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,244.59	2,268.47	1.06%	1.72%
Global Dow	4,863.01	4,897.69	4,868.29	-0.60%	0.11%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.61%	4.60%	-1 bps	3 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	108.02	108.92	0.83%	0.44%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$70.28	$74.00	5.29%	3.12%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$2,632.50	$2,650.70	0.69%	0.46%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• According to the survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global, the manufacturing sector ended 2024 trending lower. After advancing in November, December saw a sharp reduction in new orders, while the rate of decline in production quickened. Business confidence waned and input costs to manufacturers rose sharply, prompting an increase in selling prices. One plus is that employment increased modestly for the second straight month. At 49.4, the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ fell from November’s rate of 49.7, indicating that manufacturing declined.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.006 per gallon on December 30, $0.018 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.083 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 30, the East Coast price ticked up $0.011 to $2.956 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.060 to $2.875 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price slid $0.034 to $2.613 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.006 to $2.881 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.005 to $3.770 per gallon.
• For the week ended December 28, there were 211,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 21 was 1.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 21 was 1,844,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 14,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 14 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.1%), Illinois (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Montana (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 21 were in New Jersey (+4,085), Kentucky (+2,135), Missouri (+2,108), Connecticut (+2,088), and Tennessee (+2,018), while the largest decreases were in New York (-965), Florida (-883), West Virginia (-473), Minnesota (-368), and Kansas (-295).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Heading into the new year, all eyes will be on the December employment figures, released at the end of this week. Employment rose by 227,000 in November, although the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to the jobs report as it relates to the Fed’s primary policy goals of full employment and 2.0% inflation. A favorable jobs report supports moderation in the timing of further interest rate reductions.

The Markets (as of market close December 27, 2024)

Christmas week saw stocks climb higher, despite a tumble last Friday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, led by the Global Dow and the NASDAQ. Scant holiday trading amplified market moves during the week. Information technology led the market sectors, with health care, communication services, utilities, financials, and energy also outperforming. Bond values receded, pushing yields higher. The dollar edged up, while gold prices ticked lower. Crude oil prices gained after falling the previous week.

A surge in tech shares helped drive stocks generally higher last Monday. The NASDAQ led the benchmark indexes listed here, climbing 1.0%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.7%), the Global Dow (0.4%), and the Dow (0.2%). The small caps of the Russell 2000 dipped 0.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 7.5 basis points to 4.59%. Crude oil prices inched up 0.2% to settle at $69.59 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%, while gold prices fell 0.7%.

A “Santa Claus rally” saw stocks move higher on Christmas Eve. Megacaps led the surge, propelling the NASDAQ up 1.4%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.1%, the Russell 2000 climbed 1.0%, the Dow rose 0.9%, and the Global Dow added 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields were unchanged from the prior day, closing at 4.59%. Crude oil prices gained 1.2% to reach $70.10 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices gained 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Stocks moved very little last Thursday during a light day of trading. The Russell 2000 was the only index listed here that made a noticeable move after gaining 0.9%, while the Global Dow inched up 0.2%. The NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Dow each moved less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.57%. Crude oil prices fell 0.8% to close at $69.55 per barrel. The dollar ticked down 0.1%, while gold prices gained 0.7%.

Last Friday saw stocks tumble, rocked by a late-week megacap swoon. The Russell 2000 lost 1.6%, the NASDAQ declined 1.5%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Dow dropped 0.8%, and the Global Dow slipped 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up to 4.61%. The dollar dipped 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.8%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 12/27	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	42,840.26	42,992.21	0.35%	14.07%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	19,572.60	19,722.03	0.76%	31.38%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,930.85	5,970.84	0.67%	25.18%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,242.37	2,244.59	0.10%	10.73%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,844.06	4,897.69	1.11%	12.45%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	-100 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.52%	4.61%	9 bps	75 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	107.82	108.02	0.19%	6.54%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$69.49	$70.28	1.14%	-1.43%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,641.80	$2,632.50	-0.35%	27.02%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• New orders for long-lasting goods decreased 1.1% in November following an 0.8% increase in October. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, led the overall decrease, declining 2.9%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in November decreased 0.6%. New orders for defense capital goods in November declined 12.5%.
• November saw sales of new single-family homes increase 5.9% from the previous month and 8.7% above the November 2023 rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800. The inventory of new houses for sale at the end of November represented a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate.
• The international trade in goods deficit rose 4.7% in November. Exports increased 4.4% and imports advanced 4.5%. Since November 2023, the international trade in goods deficit increased by 16.1%. During that period, exports rose 6.1% and imports advanced 9.6%.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.024 per gallon on December 23, $0.008 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.092 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 23, the East Coast price ticked down $0.046 to $2.945 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.051 to $2.935 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.085 to $2.647 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price gained $0.048 to $2.887 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.010 to $3.775 per gallon.
• For the week ended December 21, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 14 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 14 was 1,910,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 7 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Illinois (1.7%), Montana (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 14 were in Nebraska (+392), Kentucky (+378), Colorado (+169), Rhode Island (+141), and Delaware (+98), while the largest decreases were in New York (-6,807), Texas (-5,405), California (-5,279), Pennsylvania (-4,724), and Georgia (-4,662).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This is expected to be a slow week in the market and for important economic data. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey for December is available this week. The manufacturing sector has been slowly picking up steam heading into the new year. It is possible that the December purchasing managers’ index will actually show growth, which hasn’t happened in quite some time.

The Markets (as of market close November 29, 2024)

Thanksgiving week proved to be a positive one for stocks. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed higher, led by the Dow and the Russell 2000. Financials, consumer staples, and industrials led the market sectors, with only energy and communication services declining. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell for the second consecutive week. Crude oil prices declined despite an apparent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The dollar lost about 1.7% for the week, while gold prices declined 2.0%.

The Dow reached a new high last Monday as stocks closed generally higher. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%) and the Global Dow (0.5%). The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each climbed 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.27% after falling 14.5 basis points. The dollar, which had been rallying, declined 0.6%, while gold prices snapped a five-day winning streak after losing 3.1%. Crude oil prices slid 3.1%, settling at $69.07 per barrel.

Both the S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.3%) reached record highs last Tuesday. The NASDAQ gained 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) and the Global Dow (-0.1%) declined. Investors wrestled with the potential economic effects of President-elect Trump’s trade tariffs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at 4.30%. Crude oil prices slid to $68.63 per barrel. Gold prices rose 0.6% and the dollar inched up 0.1%.

Stocks fell the day before Thanksgiving as each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the session in the red, with the exception of the Russell 2000, which ticked up 0.1%. The NASDAQ fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Dow declined 0.3%. The Global Dow was flat. Crude oil prices closed at $68.76 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.24%. The dollar declined 0.9%, while gold prices rose 0.6%. Investors saw the likelihood of another interest rate reduction in December diminish after the latest data showed inflation ticked up in October and over the last 12 months (see below), indicating that movement toward the Fed’s 2.0% target has stalled.

The week ended as it began with stocks closing higher. The S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.4%) reached record highs. The NASDAQ gained 0.8%, the Global Dow rose 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 edged up 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields lost 6.4 basis points to close at 4.17%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.1%, while gold prices increased 0.7%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 11/29	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	44,296.51	44,910.65	1.39%	19.16%
NASDAQ	15,011.35	19,003.65	19,218.17	1.13%	28.02%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,969.34	6,032.38	1.06%	26.47%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,406.67	2,434.73	1.17%	20.11%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,971.05	5,016.35	0.91%	15.18%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	4.50%-4.75%	4.50%-4.75%	0 bps	-75 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.41%	4.17%	-24 bps	31 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	107.53	105.74	-1.66%	4.29%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$71.25	$68.00	-4.56%	-4.63%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,711.70	$2,657.00	-2.02%	28.20%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The second estimate for the third-quarter gross domestic product revealed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, unchanged from the initial estimate. In the second quarter, GDP increased 3.0%. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, rose 3.5% in the third quarter. Nonresidential fixed investment advanced 3.8%, while residential fixed investment declined 5.0%. Exports rose 7.5% and imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, advanced 10.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index increased 1.5% and 2.1% excluding food and energy.
• Personal income increased 0.6% in October, while disposable personal income, personal income less personal current taxes, increased 0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. The PCE price index increased 0.2% in October. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. Since October 2023, the PCE price index rose 2.3%. The PCE price index less food and energy increased 2.8% for the year.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 0.2% following two consecutive monthly decreases. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, advancing 0.5%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in October increased 1.4%, while new orders for defense capital goods in October decreased 4.0%.
• The advance report on international trade in goods for October showed the deficit was $99.1 billion, down $9.6 billion, or 8.8%, from the September estimate. Exports of goods for October were $168.7 billion, $5.6 billion, or 3.2%, less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $267.8 billion, $15.2 billion, or 5.4% less than September imports.
• Sales of new single-family homes dropped 17.3% in October and fell 9.4% over the last 12 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800. Inventory in October sat at a supply of 9.5 months.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.044 per gallon on November 25, $0.002 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.194 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 25, the East Coast price ticked up $0.008 to $3.011 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.016 to $2.866 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.006 to $2.635 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.089 to $2.828 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.009 to $3.884 per gallon.
• For the week ended November 23, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 16 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 16 was 1,907,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 9 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Alaska (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Illinois (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), and New York (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 16 were in Utah (+538), Minnesota (+381), Missouri (+252), Idaho (+200), and Louisiana (+199), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,088), Georgia (-1,952), New Jersey (-1,423), Texas (-1,160), and Ohio (-1,125).

Eye on the Week Ahead

One of the most closely watched of all economic indicators is the employment situation report, which is released this week for November. October saw the labor force increase by a scant 12,000. However, Hurricane Milton may have impacted the surveys that support the employment data. It would not be surprising to see October’s figures increase as more data is made available. However, the consensus for November, at about 125,000, is well below the monthly average for the year.