Tag: Investing

The Markets (as of market close May 10, 2024)

The market closed last week higher. Investor sentiment was bolstered by good corporate earnings results from key megacaps. Of the 459 companies of the S&P 500 that have reported earnings, 77% beat consensus predictions. The Dow rode an eight-session winning streak, while the S&P 500 approached a record high. Among the market sectors, only consumer discretionary closed the week in the red. Utilities advanced 4.0% to lead the sectors, while financials, materials, consumer staples, communications services, and industrials outperformed. Treasury yields ended the week where they began. Crude oil prices advanced marginally. Gold prices jumped higher.

Stocks extended their rally from the previous week as each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains last Monday. The Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.0%, the Global Dow added 0.6%, and the Dow gained 0.5%. While stocks advanced, bond yields tumbled with 10-year Treasury yields dipping to 4.48%. Crude oil prices rose for the first time in several sessions, closing at $78.68 per barrel, up $0.57. The dollar was flat, while gold prices rose 1.1%.

Last Tuesday saw stocks inch higher, but enough to extend the Dow’s winning streak to five sessions and the S&P 500’s streak to four straight days. The Global Dow rose 0.4% and the Russell 2000 gained 0.2% to lead the benchmark indexes. The Nasdaq edged lower by 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped 2.6 basis points to 4.65%. Crude oil prices changed little from the day before, closing at about $78.55 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.3%, while gold prices fell 0.3%.

The Dow extended its winning streak to six straight sessions last Wednesday after gaining 0.4%. However, the remaining benchmark indexes listed here were either flat (S&P 500) or closed in the red. The Russell 2000 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.2%, and the Global Dow declined 0.1%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 2.9 basis points to 4.49%. Crude oil prices climbed to $79.21 per barrel. The dollar inched up 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.3%.

Each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained ground last Thursday, with the Dow extending its winning streak to seven consecutive sessions. The Russell 2000 and the Dow led the way, gaining 0.9%, followed by the S&P 500 and the Global Dow, which added 0.5%. The Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 4.3 basis points to 4.44%. Crude oil prices continued to advance this week, gaining $0.58 to $79.57 per barrel. The dollar slipped 0.3%, while gold prices rose 1.3%. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected (see below), offering more hope for an interest rate cut.

Stocks were mixed last Friday, with the Global Dow (0.4%), the Dow (0.3%), and the S&P 500 (0.2%) advancing, while the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) declined, and the Nasdaq ended the day marginally lower. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 5.5 basis points to 4.50%. Crude oil prices fell $0.92 per barrel. The dollar inched up, while gold prices finished the week on a strong note after gaining 1.3%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 5/10	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	38,675.68	39,512.84	2.16%	4.84%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	16,156.33	16,340.87	1.14%	8.86%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,127.79	5,222.68	1.85%	9.49%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,035.72	2,059.78	1.18%	1.61%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,607.56	4,690.89	1.81%	7.71%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.50%	4.50%	0 bps	64 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	105.03	105.31	0.27%	3.87%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$78.10	$78.32	0.28%	9.85%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,311.30	$2,369.50	2.52%	14.33%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The monthly Treasury statement for April showed a surplus of $210.0 billion. The impact of large tax deposits resulted in receipts of $776.0 billion, reduced by $567.0 billion in outlays, which yielded the surplus. The total budget deficit through the seven months of the fiscal year was $855.0 billion. Over the same period last fiscal year, the deficit sat at $925.0 billion.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.643 per gallon on May 6, $0.010 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.110 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of May 6, the East Coast price rose $0.009 to $3.549 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.057 to $3.396 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.052 to $3.244 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.037 to $3.463 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.042 to $4.754 per gallon.
• For the week ended May 4, there were 231,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. This is the highest number of weekly claims for unemployment benefits since August 2023. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 27 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 27 was 1,785,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 20 were April 20 were in New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.3%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Illinois (1.7%), Minnesota (1.7%), New York (1.7%), Washington (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Alaska (1.5%), Connecticut (1.5%), and Pennsylvania (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 27 were in Iowa (+1,452), Illinois (+1,227), New Hampshire (+488), Ohio (+340), and Michigan (+330), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,083), Massachusetts (-3,306), Oregon (-1,729), Rhode Island (-1,626), and Connecticut (-1,409).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data is in the news this week with the release of the Consumer Price Index for April. Inflation has run hotter than expected over the past few months, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates higher. However, statements from Fed officials seem to indicate that another rate increase is not in the offing. However, unless inflation reverses course, it is likely that the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate for longer than most had hoped.

The Markets (as of market close May 3, 2024)

The markets enjoyed a solid week of gains on the heels of favorable corporate earnings data and a softer-than-expected employment report (see below). Investors could be viewing the dip in job hires and wage growth as the fuel the Federal Reserve needs to consider interest rate cuts. The Fed has consistently maintained that a softening labor market would help drive inflation lower. The Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq led the benchmark indexes listed here. Ten-year Treasury yields, gold prices, and the dollar declined. Crude oil prices slid more than 6.5% amid rising inventories and a push for a Gaza ceasefire.

Stocks edged higher to start the week as investors awaited a batch of key earnings and the results of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The Russell 2000 added 0.7%, followed by the Global Dow (0.5%), the Nasdaq and the Dow (0.4%), and the S&P 500 (0.3%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries declined 5.5 basis points to 4.61%. Crude oil prices dipped $1.14 to $82.71 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.3%, while gold prices ticked up 0.1%.

U.S. stocks joined their global counterparts in turning sharply lower last Tuesday as investors awaited the release of important economic data and the latest policy statement from the Federal Reserve. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here declined, led by the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq, which lost 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Dow decreased 1.5%, and the Global Dow dipped 0.9%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 7.2 basis points to 4.68%. Crude oil prices fell a little over $1.00 to $81.58 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.7%, while gold prices lost 2.4%.

Only the Russell 2000 (0.3%) and the Dow (0.2%) closed higher last Wednesday after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected. The Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Global Dow each fell 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.59% after falling 9.1 basis points. Crude oil prices slid below $80.00 per barrel, settling at $79.20 per barrel. The dollar lost 0.5%, while gold prices advanced 1.1%.

Stocks closed higher last Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak. While investors probably conceded that interest rates will not be coming down any time soon, they took solace in the Fed’s suggestion that rates won’t be increasing either. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the session higher, led by the Russell 2000 (1.8%) and the Nasdaq (1.5%). The S&P 500 and the Dow advanced 0.9%, while the Global Dow gained 0.8%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell for the second straight day, dropping 2.4 basis points to 4.57%. Crude oil prices settled at $78.99 per barrel, little changed from the prior day. The dollar dipped 0.4%, while gold prices inched up 0.1%.

Wall Street continued to show resilience last Friday, as each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains. The Nasdaq rose 2.0%, followed by the S&P 500 (1.3%), the Dow (1.2%), the Russell 2000 (1.0%), and the Global Dow (0.8%). Bond prices rose, pulling yields lower, with 10-year Treasuries falling 7.1 basis points. Crude oil prices fell $0.82 per barrel. The dollar dipped 0.3%, while gold prices were flat.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 5/3	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	38,239.66	38,675.68	1.14%	2.62%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	15,927.90	16,156.33	1.43%	7.63%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,099.96	5,127.79	0.55%	7.50%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,002.00	2,035.72	1.68%	0.43%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,571.51	4,607.56	0.79%	5.79%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.66%	4.50%	-16 bps	64 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	106.09	105.03	-1.00%	3.59%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$83.65	$78.10	-6.63%	9.54%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,350.20	$2,311.30	-1.66%	11.52%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged following the conclusion of its meeting last Wednesday. The statement from the Committee noted the lack of further progress over the last several months toward driving inflation down to the Fed’s 2.0% target. The Committee also noted that, while achieving its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability are in better balance, the economic outlook continues to be uncertain, and the Committee remains attentive to inflation risks.
• There were 175,000 new jobs added in April, lower than the monthly average of 242,000 over the past 12 months. In April, job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. The change in employment for February was revised down by 34,000, from 270,000 to 236,000, and the change for March was revised up by 12,000, from 303,000 to 315,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined was 22,000 lower than previously reported. In April, the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 3.9%. The number of unemployed was little changed at 6.5 million. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%, while the employment-population ratio, at 60.2%, dipped 0.1 percentage point. In April, average hourly earnings increased by $0.07, or 0.2%, to $34.75. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%. In April, the average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours.
• According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings declined by less than 400,000 in March to 8.5 million. However, this figure is down by 1.1 million from a year ago. The number of hires, at 5.8 million, was little changed from the February total. There were 5.2 million total separations in March, 339,000 under the February total. Business activity in the services sector continued to increase in April but at a slower rate amid the first reduction in new orders since last October. Employment was also reduced as firms showed a reluctance to replace departed staff.
• According to the latest survey of purchasing managers conducted by S&P Global®, manufacturing suffered its first setback of the year in April. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ fell to 50.0 in April, down from 51.9 in March. New orders decreased for the first time in four months as survey respondents noted clients reluctance to commit to new business amid subdued market conditions.
• According to S&P Global US Services PMI®, business in the services sector expanded in April, but at a slower pace, as new orders declined for the first time since October. Hires also slowed as firms were hesitant to replace departed staff.
• The goods and services trade deficit changed marginally in March from the previous month. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March, down $0.1 billion, or 0.1%, from the previous month. Exports declined $5.3 billion, or 2.0%, while imports fell $5.4 billion, or 1.6%. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $6.5 billion, or 3.2%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $9.1 billion, or 1.2%. Imports increased $15.6 billion, or 1.6%.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.653 per gallon on April 29, $0.015 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.053 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of April 29, the East Coast price was unchanged at $3.540 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.010 to $3.453 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.040 to $3.192 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.030 to $3.426 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.036 to $4.796 per gallon.
• For the week ended April 27, there were 208,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 20 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 20 was 1,774,000, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 13 were New Jersey (2.5%), California (2.3%), Illinois (1.9%), Rhode Island (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Minnesota (1.8%), New York (1.7%), Washington (1.7%), Alaska (1.6%), and Nevada (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 20 were in Massachusetts (+3,575), Rhode Island (+1,737), Texas (+450), Colorado (+443), and California (+216), while the largest decreases were in New York (-4,253), Pennsylvania (-2,763), Oregon (-1,712), Georgia (-1,104), and Wisconsin (-994).

Eye on the Week Ahead

It is a very slow week for economic data, with only the Treasury budget statement for April available. Investors will be looking ahead to next week when the latest inflation data is released.

The Markets (as of market close April 5, 2024)

Despite a late-week surge, stocks closed lower last week. Investors saw the continued strength of the labor market (see below) as increasing the chances of a soft landing for the economy, while potentially delaying the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value, with the Russell 2000 and the Dow falling more than 2.0%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose as bond prices slid. Communication services, energy, and materials were the only market sectors to end the week ahead. Gold prices continued to surge, while crude oil prices rose by over 4.4%. Rising inflation, increased travel, a reduction in production, and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have contributed to the rise in crude oil prices.

Stocks opened last week mixed on the first day of trading for the second quarter of the year. The Russell 2000 fell 1.0%, the Dow and the Global Dow dipped 0.6%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.2%. The Nasdaq eked out a 0.1% gain. Long-term bond prices fell, as yields rose 12.3 basis points on 10-year Treasuries, which closed the session at 4.32%. Crude oil prices rose $0.71 to reach about $83.88 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%, while gold prices jumped 1.4%.

Last Tuesday saw stocks slide as bond yields and crude oil prices vaulted higher. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed in the red, with the small caps of the Russell 2000 losing 1.8%. The Dow and the Nasdaq fell 1.0%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.7%, and the Global Dow declined 0.3%. Bond values continued to struggle as yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at 4.36%, nearing their highest levels in 2024. Crude oil prices rose to a nearly six-month high after settling at about $85.10 per barrel. The dollar lost 0.2%, while gold prices reached an all-time high after gaining 1.81% to close at $2,296.90 per ounce.

The Dow ticked down 0.1% to extend its losing streak to three days last Wednesday. The remaining benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, led by the Russell 2000 (0.5%), followed by the Global Dow (0.3%), the Nasdaq (0.2%), and the S&P 500 (0.1%). Investors paid particular attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that the Fed will not lower interest rates unless there is sustained evidence of decreasing inflation. He also mentioned that the Fed has been successful in navigating a soft landing despite the impact of higher rates on the economy. Ten-year Treasury yields inched down to 4.35%. Crude oil prices rose again, settling at about $85.66 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.5%, while gold prices rose 1.7%.

Wall Street closed notably in the red last Thursday as each of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value. The Dow dropped 1.4%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2023. The Nasdaq fell 1.4%, the S&P 500 declined 1.2%, the Russell 2000 lost 1.1%, and the Global Dow dipped 0.3%. Bond prices rose higher as yields on 10-year Treasuries fell 4.6 basis points to 4.30%. Crude oil prices gained 1.5% to reach $86.69 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while the rally for gold prices ended as they fell 0.4%.

Stocks rebounded to close out the week last Friday. The Nasdaq led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 1.2%, followed by the S&P 500 (1.1%), the Dow (0.8%), and the Russell 2000 (0.5%). The Global Dow edged 0.1% lower. Ten-year Treasury yields gained 6.9 basis points to end the week at 4.37%. Crude oil prices ticked up minimally. The dollar rose 0.2%, while gold prices gained 1.5%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 4/5	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	39,807.37	38,904.04	-2.27%	3.22%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	16,379.46	16,248.52	-0.80%	8.24%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,254.35	5,204.34	-0.95%	9.11%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,124.55	2,063.47	-2.87%	1.80%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,676.17	4,634.14	-0.90%	6.40%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.20%	4.37%	17 bps	51 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	104.55	104.28	-0.26%	2.85%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$83.06	$86.73	4.42%	21.64%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,244.70	$2,346.90	4.55%	13.24%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• March saw 303,000 new jobs added, well above expectations. In March, job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction. According to the latest information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 3.8%. The labor force participation rate rose from 62.5% to 62.7%. The employment-population ratio increased 0.2 percentage point to 60.3%. The total number of unemployed was little changed at 6.4 million, while the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million, was little changed in March. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.5% of all unemployed people. In March, average hourly earnings increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, to $34.69. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%. While the pace of wage growth remained above the inflation rate, the latest year-over-year gain is the lowest since June of 2021. Last month, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.
• Manufacturing production expanded in March, hitting a 22-month high, according to the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI®. Survey respondents noted the rate of job creation quickened, while new orders slowed somewhat, allowing firms to draw down inventories. Inflationary pressures drove up input costs and output prices.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index ticked down to a three-month low of 51.7 in March from 52.3 in February. That said, the index remained above the 50.0 mark, indicating a rise in business activity, albeit at a slower pace. The pace of growth of new orders was the slowest since November. With the slowdown in new orders, firms were able to reduce backlogs of work, which prompted service providers to expand their staffing.
• According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the number of job openings, at 8.8 million, was little changed in February from the prior month. The number of hires, at 5.8 million, increased by less than 200,000, while the number of separations advanced by slightly more than 100,000 to 5.6 million.
• The international trade in goods and services deficit increased in February by 1.9% to $68.9 billion. Exports rose by 2.3% and imports increased 2.2%. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $3.9 billion, or 2.8%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $9.3 billion, or 1.8%. Imports increased $5.4 billion, or 0.8%.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.517 per gallon on April 1, $0.006 per gallon less than the prior week’s price but $0.020 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of April 1, the East Coast price decreased $0.006 to $3.382 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.040 to $3.366 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.060 to $3.116 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.059 to $3.351 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.096 to $4.556 per gallon.
• For the week ended March 30, there were 221,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 23 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 23 was 1,791,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 16 were New Jersey (2.8%), California (2.5%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Minnesota (2.3%), Illinois (2.1%), New York (1.9%), Alaska (1.8%), Connecticut (1.8%), Montana (1.8%), Pennsylvania (1.8%), and Washington (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 23 were in Texas (+2,274), Missouri (+1,312), Oregon (+940), Illinois (+788), and Ohio (+785), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-1,322), California (-538), Mississippi (-443), Connecticut (-440), and Iowa (-423).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data is available this week with the release of the March Consumer Price Index. The CPI has been trending higher on a monthly basis since the beginning of the year. Another increase may prompt a more hawkish response from the Federal Reserve as to the timing of a reduction in interest rates.

The Markets (as of market close March 22, 2024)

Despite a dip last Friday, stocks closed out last week higher. The S&P 500 recorded its biggest weekly percentage gain of the year, while the Dow and the Nasdaq hit record highs. Investors gained a bit of encouragement after the Federal Reserve maintained projections for three interest rate cuts by year’s end. Each of the market sectors moved higher last week, with communication services and industrials gaining 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Both the dollar and gold prices advanced. Crude oil prices declined for the week, influenced by a rising dollar (since oil is priced in dollars, if the dollar goes up, oil prices generally go down, because you need fewer dollars to buy that oil).

Wall Street got off to a good start last week, led by tech and AI stocks. The Nasdaq rose 0.8%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.6%), the Global Dow (0.3%), and the Dow (0.2%). The small caps of the Russell 2000 fell 0.7%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 3.6 basis points to 4.34%. Crude oil prices jumped $1.87 to settle at about $82.91 per barrel, the highest level since October. Reduced crude exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, along with rising demand, helped drive crude oil prices higher. The dollar and gold prices inched up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

Stocks advanced for a second straight session last Tuesday as investors awaited the results of the Federal Reserve meeting. While it is widely anticipated that the Fed will maintain interest rates at their current level, attention will be focused on the projected frequency and timing of potential rate cuts. The Dow (0.8%) led the benchmark indexes, followed by the S&P 500 (0.6%), the Russell 2000 (0.5%), the Nasdaq (0.4%), and the Global Dow (0.3%). Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.29% after falling 4.3 basis points. Crude oil prices continued to surge, rising $0.75 to $83.47 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.2%, while gold prices dipped 0.2%.

Wall Street rallied last Wednesday as investors were cautiously encouraged by the Federal Reserve’s projections of three interest rate cuts this year. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.9%, the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, the Dow climbed 1.0%, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the Global Dow increased 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped 2.4 basis points, settling at 4.27%. Crude oil prices saw the end to a rally as prices fell $1.63 to $81.84 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.4%, while gold prices rose 1.4%.

Stocks continued to climb higher last Thursday, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here advancing. The Russell 2000 led the charge for the second straight session after increasing 1.1%, followed by the Global Dow (0.8%), the Dow (0.7%), the S&P 500 (0.3%), and the Nasdaq (0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields moved minimally, closing at 4.27%. Crude oil prices dipped for the second consecutive day, settling at $80.90 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.6%, while gold prices rose 1.1%.

Equities closed generally lower last Friday, with only the Nasdaq finishing the session up after gaining 0.2% to reach a record high. The Russell 2000 lost 1.3%, followed by the Dow (-0.8%), the Global Dow (-0.3%), and the S&P 500 (-0.1%). Crude oil prices fell for the third straight session, dipping 0.31%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 5.3 basis points to 4.21%. The dollar advanced 0.4%, while gold prices were flat.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 3/22	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	38,714.77	39,475.90	1.97%	4.74%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	15,973.17	16,428.82	2.85%	9.44%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,117.09	5,234.18	2.29%	9.74%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,039.32	2,072.00	1.60%	2.22%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,572.84	4,645.33	1.59%	6.66%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.30%	4.21%	-9 bps	35 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	103.43	104.42	0.96%	2.99%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$81.00	$80.88	-0.15%	13.44%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,161.20	$2,168.10	0.32%	4.61%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Federal Open Market Committee maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. In its statement, the FOMC indicated that, “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2.0%.” During his press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that an interest rate cut is not on the immediate horizon. As to the increase in prices over the past few months, Powell said that the Committee anticipated that the path of lowering inflation may be bumpy. However, the FOMC is looking at the performance of inflation over time, not just a few months. The Fed retained its forecast for three rate cuts this year.
• February saw sales of existing homes jump 9.5%, although sales declined 3.3% year over year. Additional supply and consistent demand have helped drive sales throughout the country. Unsold inventory sat at a 2.9-month supply in February, down from 3.0 months in January. The median existing-home sales price was $384,500 in February, up from $378,600 in January, and well above the February 2023 price of $363,600. Existing single-family home sales also grew in February, up 10.3% but down 2.7% from a year earlier. The median price for existing single-family homes was $388,700, higher than the January price of $382,900, and over the February 2023 price of $368,100.
• The number of residential building permits issued in February was 1.9% above the January rate. The number of single-family building permits issued in February increased 1.0%. The number of housing starts in February rose 10.7% above the January estimate, while single-family housing starts increased 11.6%. Housing completions in February rose 19.7% over January. Single-family housing completions advanced 20.2% last month.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.453 per gallon on March 18, $0.077 per gallon more than the prior week’s price and $0.031 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of March 18, the East Coast price increased $0.084 to $3.349 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.022 to $3.309 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.154 to $3.099 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.089 to $3.166 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.084 to $4.380 per gallon.
• For the week ended March 16, there were 210,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 3,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 9 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 9 was 1,807,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 2 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.7%), California (2.5%), Minnesota (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Illinois (2.2%), Montana (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), Alaska (1.9%), Connecticut (1.9%), and Washington (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 9 were in Oregon (+2,216), California (+462), Indiana (+427), Texas (+392), and Nevada (+342), while the largest decreases were in New York (-14,583), Ohio (-1,453), New Hampshire (-446), Massachusetts (-305), and Vermont (-289).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The last week of March brings with it the final estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the second estimate, the economy accelerated at an annualized rate of 3.2%. Also out this week is the February report on personal income and expenditures, which includes the personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve. With other indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index, showing that inflation rose in February, it is expected the PCE price index will also show in increase consumer prices.

The Markets (as of market close February 23, 2024)

Stocks advanced last week, driven higher by tech shares that were bolstered by favorable corporate earnings reports. The Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 posted weekly gains for the 16th time out of the last 18 trading weeks. Among the benchmark indexes listed here, only the small caps of the Russell 2000 closed the week in the red. Each of the 11 market sectors ended the week higher, led by consumer staples, materials, and health care. Bond prices ticked higher, pulling yields lower, with 10-year Treasuries slipping 3.0 basis points. The dollar slipped lower, while gold prices advanced. Crude oil prices fell over $3.00 per barrel.

Wall Street opened last Tuesday lower, dragged down by underperforming megacap technology stocks. The Russell 2000 fell 1.4%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0.9%), the S&P 500 (-0.6%), and the Dow (-0.2%), while the Global Dow was flat. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked lower to 4.27%. Crude oil prices edged down $0.92 to $78.27 per barrel. The dollar dipped to its lowest level in about two weeks. Gold prices advanced 0.6%.

Stocks got off to a slow start last Wednesday but were able to pare some of their early losses by the end of trading. The Dow, the Global Dow, and the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1%, while the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) and the Nasdaq (-0.3%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields gained 5.0 basis points to reach 4.32%. Crude oil prices added $1.02 to close at about $78.06 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices declined.

Last Thursday saw an upbeat earnings report from a chip-making giant help drive stocks higher. The better-than-expected earnings results spurred investor optimism enough to drive both the S&P 500 (2.1%) and the Dow (1.2%) to new record highs, while the Nasdaq gained nearly 3.0%. The Global Dow advanced 1.1% and the Russell 2000 added 1.0% to round out the benchmark indexes listed here. The yield on 10-year Treasuries moved little, ending the session where it started at 4.32%. Crude oil prices gained nearly $0.50 to close at $78.38 per barrel. Gold prices and the dollar ended marginally lower.

Stocks were mixed last Friday, with the Global Dow (0.3%) gaining the most, while the Dow and the Russell 2000 inched up 0.2%. The S&P 500 ended the day flat. The tech-heavy Nasdaq couldn’t maintain the previous day’s momentum, sliding 0.3% by the close of trading. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 6.7 basis points to 4.26%. Crude oil prices dropped $2.00 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices rose 0.8%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 2/23	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	38,627.99	39,131.53	1.30%	3.83%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	15,775.65	15,996.82	1.40%	6.56%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,005.57	5,088.80	1.66%	6.69%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,032.74	2,016.69	-0.79%	-0.51%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,443.56	4,515.13	1.61%	3.67%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.29%	4.26%	-3 bps	40 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	104.28	103.96	-0.31%	2.53%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$79.25	$76.56	-3.39%	7.38%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,025.30	$2,045.30	0.99%	-1.31%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Existing-home sales grew by 3.1% in January, with sales accelerating in the Midwest, South, and West, while remaining steady in the Northeast. Despite the recent increase, sales were 1.7% under the January 2023 pace. Total housing inventory in January represented a 3.0-month supply, down slightly from the 3.1-month supply in December. The median existing-home price was $379,100 in January, down from $381,400 in December, but up from the January 2023 price of $360,800. Sales of single-family existing homes rose 3.4% last month but were 1.4% under the total from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $383,500 in January, down from December’s $385,800, but well above the January 2023 price of $365,400.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.269 per gallon on February 19, $0.077 per gallon higher than the prior week’s price but $0.110 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 19, the East Coast price increased $0.079 to $3.230 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.078 to $3.122 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.094 to $2.901 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.131 to $2.922 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.046 to $4.057 per gallon.
• For the week ended February 17, there were 201,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 10 was 1.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 10 was 1,862,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 3 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.7%), California (2.5%), Minnesota (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Illinois (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Montana (2.1%), Connecticut (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), and Washington (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 10 were in Kentucky (+3,264), California (+2,053), Nevada (+364), Maryland (+290), and Washington (+91), while the largest decreases were in Missouri (-3,519), Pennsylvania (-1,477), Texas (-1,431), Illinois (-1,213), and Oregon (-941).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week is loaded with important, market-moving economic information. The second estimate of the fourth-quarter gross domestic product is available. The initial release had the economy accelerating at an annualized rate of 3.3%. The January report on personal income and outlays is also out at the end of this week. Most investors will be focused on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve. Prices advanced 0.2% in December. However, January has seen other inflation indicators accelerate at a rate higher than expected, so it is likely the same will hold true for the PCE price index.

The Markets (as of market close January 19, 2024)

Wall Street closed the holiday-shortened week generally higher, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains, except for the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow. The surge in stocks was driven primarily by information technology and communication services, with chip makers leading the charge. Other than financials, which ticked up marginally higher, the remaining market sectors ended the week in the red. Following December’s surge, investors became pensive about stocks to begin the new year after expectations of an impending interest rate cut waned. However, favorable economic news helped bolster confidence in equities, at least for the time being. Long-term bond prices faded, pushing yields higher, as good economic news, particularly in the labor sector, supported the Federal Reserve’s inclination to keep rates higher for longer.

Stocks closed lower last Tuesday as investor sentiment was dampened by rising bond yields and a suggestion from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that interest rate cuts should not be rushed. The Russell 2000 fell 1.2%, the Global Dow lost 1.0%, the Dow slid 0.6%, the S&P 500 declined 0.4%, and the Nasdaq dipped 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 11.6 basis points to 4.06% as bond values declined. Crude oil prices settled at $71.81 per barrel after falling 1.2%. The dollar rose 0.7%, while gold prices fell 1.0%.

Equities fell for the second straight session last Wednesday as rising Treasury yields impacted megacap companies. The Global Dow (-0.8%) fell the furthest, followed by the Russell 2000 (-0.7%), the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 (-0.6%), and the Dow (-0.3%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.10%. The worst-performing sectors included real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology, and materials. Crude oil prices rose 0.6% to $72.81 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices declined 1.1%.

A surge in megacap tech shares helped push stocks higher last Thursday. The Nasdaq led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 1.4%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.9%), the Global Dow and the Russell 2000 (0.6%), and the Dow (0.5%). Ten-year Treasury yields continued to ascend, gaining 3.8 basis points to close at 4.14%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.0% to $74.02 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices gained 0.9%.

Stocks rallied to close out the week last Friday, with the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high. The information technology sector led the day’s gains with chip makers driving the advance. The Nasdaq advanced 1.7%, followed by the S&P 500 (1.2%), the Dow (1.1%), the Russell 2000 (1.0%), and the Global Dow (0.8%). Ten-year Treasury yields were flat, closing at 4.14%. Crude oil prices ended their streak, falling 0.4% to $73.82 per barrel. The dollar dipped 0.3%, while gold prices rose 0.5%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 1/19	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	37,592.98	37,863.80	0.72%	0.46%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	14,972.76	15,310.97	2.26%	2.00%
S&P 500	4,769.83	4,783.83	4,839.81	1.17%	1.47%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	1,950.96	1,944.39	-0.34%	-4.08%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,341.83	4,318.47	-0.54%	-0.85%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	3.95%	4.14%	`19 bps	28 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	102.43	103.25	0.80%	1.83%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$72.80	$73.79	1.36%	3.49%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,052.20	$2,031.50	-1.01%	-1.98%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Retail and food services sales rose 0.6% in December and 5.6% over the December 2022 rate. Total retail sales for 2023 increased 3.2%. Retail trade sales were up 0.6% from November 2023 and up 4.8% above last year. Nonstore (online) retail sales were up 9.7% from last year, while sales at food services and drinking places increased 11.1% from December 2022.
• Import prices were unchanged in December after declining 0.5% in November. Import fuel prices decreased 0.3% in December, while nonfuel prices were unchanged. Prices for imports fell 1.6% for the year ended in December. Import prices have not risen on a 12-month basis since January 2023. Prices for exports fell 0.9% for the third consecutive month in December. Export prices fell 3.2% over the past year.
• Industrial production inched up 0.1% in December after being unchanged in November. For the 12 months ended in December, industrial production rose 1.0%. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1% last month after increasing 0.2% in November. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output declined 0.1% in December. Utilities declined 1.0% in December, while mining rose 0.9%. The major market groups posted mixed results in December. The production of consumer goods moved up 0.2%, while production of nondurable consumer goods was flat.
• The number of building permits issued for residential construction increased by 1.9% in December over November and 6.1% above the December 2022 rate. Issued building permits for single-family homes in December were 1.7% above the November figure. In 2023, an estimated 1,469,800 building permits were issued, which was 11.7% below the 2022 figure. The number of housing starts fell 4.3% last month, but was 7.6% above the December 2022 estimate. Housing completions rose 8.7% in December and 13.2% above the December 2022 rate.
• Sales of existing homes declined 1.0% in December and 6.2% from December 2022. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS®, despite the drop in December sales, activity is expected to pick up in 2024 as mortgage rates continue to decline and more inventory is expected to appear on the market. In December, unsold inventory sat at a 3.2-month supply, down from 3.5 months in November, but up from 2.9 months a year ago. The median existing-home sales price was $382,600 in December, down from $387,700 in November, but 4.4% above the December 2022 price of $366,500. Sales of existing single-family homes also fell in December, down 0.3% from the previous month’s total. The median existing single-family home price was $387,000, down from November’s price of $392,200, but up from the December 2022 price of $372,000.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.058 per gallon on January 15, $0.015 per gallon lower than the prior week’s price and $0.252 less than a year ago. Also, as of January 15, the East Coast price decreased $0.036 to $3.039 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.055 to $2.823 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.006 to $2.670 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.032 to $2.733 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.096 to $3.976 per gallon.
• For the week ended January 13, there were 187,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 182,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 6 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 6 was 1,806,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 2,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 30 were New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.8%), Minnesota (2.6%), Montana (2.5%), Alaska (2.3%), California (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Pennsylvania (2.2%), New York (2.1%), and Washington (2.1%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 6 were in New York (+20,535), California (+9,454), Texas (+9,337), Georgia (+6,261), and South Carolina (+4,152), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,044), Massachusetts (-3,341), Connecticut (-2,896), Iowa (-1,847), and Pennsylvania (-1,566).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Reports focusing on several different sectors of the economy are available this week. The manufacturing sector is represented by the report on durable goods orders for December. New orders for durable goods rose 5.4% in November. The latest information on sales of new single-family homes is out this week. Sales fell 12.2% in November and look to rebound in December. The advance estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2023 is out this week. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter. The report on personal income and expenditures for December is released this week. This report includes the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation guide for the Federal Reserve. The PCE price index slid 0.1% in November. However, other inflation indicators increased in December, and it is likely that the PCE price index will follow suit.