May 2024 – What I'm Watching This Week

What I’m Watching This Week – 28 May 2024

Published on May 28, 2024 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 24, 2024)

Tech shares, particularly AI stocks, helped push the Nasdaq, and to a much lesser extent, the S&P 500 higher last week. The Dow, the Russell 2000, and the Global Dow declined. During a week when volume was relatively light, investors latched onto favorable corporate earnings data from some major tech and AI companies. Among the market sectors, only information technology and communication services closed higher. Real estate and energy fell the furthest. Treasury yields inched higher, while crude oil prices fell 2.74%, yet remain up 9.1% year to date. Gold prices, which had been soaring, had their worst week in a while, although they are up nearly 13.0% from the beginning of the year.

Wall Street kicked off last week on a high note, with the Nasdaq securing a new record high. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained ground by the close of trading, with the exception of the Dow, which lost 0.5%. Technology led the market sectors, while consumer discretionary and energy fell the most. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up 1.7 basis points to close at 4.43%. Crude oil prices fell $0.35 to settle at about $79.71 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices advanced.

Stocks ended last Tuesday with mixed results. The Russell 2000 fell 0.2%, while the Global Dow was flat. However, the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, and both the Nasdaq and the Dow advanced 0.2%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached new record highs, while the Dow finished near its record level. Investors saw favorable earnings data from several retailers, while trying to gauge when the Fed might begin cutting interest rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped to 4.41%. Crude oil prices slid $0.75 to $79.08 per barrel. The dollar gained about 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.5%.

The benchmark indexes listed here fell back last Wednesday. Investors awaited earnings data from a major AI company, while digesting the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting, in which some officials indicated a willingness to hike rates if necessary. The Russell 2000 fell the furthest (-0.8%), followed by the Dow and the Global Dow (-0.5%), the S&P 500 (-0.3%), and the Nasdaq (-0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields rose 2.0 basis points to close at 4.43%. Crude oil prices declined for the third straight session after falling $1.32 to $77.34 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.3%, while gold prices dipped 1.8%.

The markets closed lower last Thursday as rising bond yields weighed on stocks. Once again, the Russell 2000 led the declines after falling 1.6%. The Dow lost 1.5%, the S&P 500 and the Global Dow dipped 0.7%, while the Nasdaq decreased 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.47% after adding 4.1 basis points. Crude oil prices fell for the fourth straight day, losing $0.70 to settle at $76.87 per barrel. The dollar inched up 0.1%, while gold prices fell 2.5%.

Stocks closed higher ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. The Nasdaq (1.1%) reached a record high as AI stocks rallied. The Russell 2000 rose 1.0%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.7%), and the Global Dow (0.2%). The Dow ticked up less than 0.1%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped to 4.46%. Crude oil prices rose for the first time in a week, gaining $0.91 to settle at $77.78 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 5/24	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	40,003.59	39,069.59	-2.33%	3.66%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	16,685.97	16,920.79	1.41%	12.72%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,303.27	5,304.72	0.03%	11.21%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,095.72	2,069.67	-1.24%	2.10%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,755.15	4,713.47	-0.88%	8.22%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.42%	4.46%	4 bps	60 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	104.48	104.74	0.25%	3.30%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$79.97	$77.78	-2.74%	9.09%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,420.20	$2,335.70	-3.49%	12.70%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

April saw sales of existing homes decrease 1.9% from the prior month’s estimate. Existing home sales are down 1.9% from April 2023. Total inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply, up from 3.2 months in March. The median existing home price in April was $407,600 ($392,900 in March), an increase of 5.7% from the previous year ($385,800). Single-family home sales fell 2.1% in April and 1.3% from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $412,100 in April, higher than the March price of $396,600, and up 5.6% from April 2023. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.02% as of May 16. That’s down from 7.09% the previous week but up from 6.39% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in April were 4.7% below the March rate and 7.7% under the April 2023 estimate. The median price for new houses sold in April was $433,500 ($439,500 in March). The average sales price was $505,700 ($527,400 in March). The number of houses for sale in April represented a 9.1-month supply at the current sales pace.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose for the third straight month after increasing 0.7% in April. Since April 2023, new orders for durable goods have increased 0.5%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders were virtually unchanged. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, up 1.2%. Nondefense new orders for capital goods decreased 1.5% in April. New orders for defense capital goods increased 15.2%.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.584 per gallon on May 20, $0.024 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.050 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of May 20, the East Coast price fell $0.016 to $3.475 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.002 to $3.432 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.055 to $3.113 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.029 to $3.430 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.070 to $4.624 per gallon.
For the week ended May 18, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 11 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 11 was 1,794,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 4 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (2.2%), Rhode Island (1.7%), Massachusetts (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Washington (1.6%), Alaska (1.5%), Illinois (1.5%), Minnesota (1.5%), and Puerto Rico (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 11 were in Florida (+1,331), Pennsylvania (+924), Minnesota (+542), Louisiana (+537), and Massachusetts (+363), while the largest decreases were in New York (-9,543), Illinois (-2,567), California (-1,189), Indiana (-1,079), and Michigan (-513).

Eye on the Week Ahead

There are some important economic reports released during the holiday-shortened week. The second estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter is out this week. The initial estimate showed economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 1.6%. Also available this week is the latest report on personal income and outlays. The previous report showed consumer spending rose 0.8% in March, while consumer prices advanced 0.3%.

What I’m Watching This Week – 20 May 2024

Published on May 20, 2024 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 17, 2024)

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced for the fourth straight week, which is the first time that has happened since February. Not to be outdone, the Dow advanced for a fifth straight week. Much of the week’s focus was on inflation data (see below). Investors will now look to responsive comments from Federal Reserve officials for any potential changes in interest rate expectations. Information technology and real estate led the market sectors, while consumer discretionary and industrials closed in the red. The dollar slipped nearly 0.75% against a basket of currencies. Gold prices advanced over 2.0% for the week and nearly 17.0% for the year. Crude oil prices climbed more than $1.00 per barrel.

Wall Street ended last Monday with mixed results. The Dow ended its winning streak at eight days after falling 0.2%. The S&P 500 declined less than 0.1%. The Nasdaq rose 0.3%. The Global Dow gained 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 inched up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped to 4.48%. Crude oil prices gained $0.93 to $79.19 per barrel. The dollar (-0.1%) and gold prices (-1.3%) declined.

Last Tuesday saw stocks end higher ahead of the release of Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index. The Russell 2000 led the benchmark indexes listed here, climbing 1.2%, followed by the Nasdaq (0.8%), the S&P 500 (0.5%), the Global Dow (0.4%), and the Dow (0.3%). The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell 3.6 basis points to 4.44%. Crude oil prices dipped $1.00 to $78.14 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.2%, while gold prices advanced 0.8%.

Stocks rallied last Wednesday with the Nasdaq, the Dow, and the S&P 500 closing at record highs. Investors were buoyed by a softer Consumer Price Index, which showed inflation slowed somewhat in April. The Nasdaq gained 1.4%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 climbed 1.1%. The Dow rose 0.9% and the Global Dow gained 0.8%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 8.9 basis points to 4.35%. Crude oil prices rose to $78.84 per barrel, up $0.82. The dollar fell 0.7%, while gold prices climbed 1.4%.

After reaching record highs on Wednesday, the Nasdaq (-0.3%), the S&P 500 (-0.2%), and the Dow (-0.1%) dipped lower on Thursday. The Russell 2000 fell 0.6% and the Global Dow slipped 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed the session at 4.37% after gaining 2.1 basis points. Crude oil prices rose $0.66 to $79.29 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0.2%, while gold prices fell 0.6%.

Stocks ended the week with mixed results. The Dow (0.3%) closed at a new record high. The S&P 500 and the Global Dow ticked up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. The Russell 2000 dipped less than 0.1%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries gained 4.3 basis points to close the day and the week at 4.42%. Crude oil prices rose $0.72, the dollar was flat, while gold prices climbed 1.4%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 5/17	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	39,512.84	40,003.59	1.24%	6.14%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	16,340.87	16,685.97	2.11%	11.16%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,222.68	5,303.27	1.54%	11.18%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,059.78	2,095.72	1.74%	3.39%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,690.89	4,755.15	1.37%	9.18%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.50%	4.42%	-8 bps	56 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	105.31	104.48	-0.79%	3.05%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$78.32	$79.97	2.11%	12.16%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,369.50	$2,420.20	2.14%	16.78%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in April after rising 0.4% in March. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices were up 3.4%. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices rose 0.3% for the month and 3.6% for the year. While prices may have decreased some, they remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, which likely means no interest rate cuts are in the offing. Increases in prices for shelter (0.4%) and gasoline (2.8%) accounted for more than 70% of the overall increase in April. Prices for food were unchanged last month.
Inflationary pressures were evident at the producer level, where April’s increase exceeded expectations. Prices at the producer level rose 0.5% in April, while core prices, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.5% last month. For the year, producer prices have risen 2.2%, the largest increase in a year. Nearly 75% of the April increase was attributable to a 0.6% increase in prices for services. Prices for goods moved up 0.4%.
Retail and food services sales were unchanged in April after increasing 0.6% in March. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.2%, while sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline were down 0.1% last month. Prices at the pump rose 3.1% in April, reflecting higher product prices plus an increase in sales volume during the spring holiday travel period. Over the last 12 months, retail sales rose 3.0%. Nonstore retailers saw sales increase 7.5% from last year, while sales at food services and drinking places were up 5.5% from April 2023.
Import prices increased 0.9% in April, after advancing 0.6% in March. The April increase in import prices was the largest one-month advance since March 2022. Over the last 12 months, import prices advanced 1.1%, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022. Prices for exports increased 0.5% in April following a 0.1% advance the previous month. Export prices have not decreased on a monthly basis since December 2023. Despite the recent increases, export prices declined 1.0% over the past year, the smallest over-the-year drop since February 2023.
Total industrial production was unchanged in April from March. Industrial production in April was 0.4% below its April 2023 level. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3%. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output edged down 0.1%. Mining fell 0.6%, while utilities rose 2.8%.
The number of residential building permits issued in April declined by 3.0% from the March estimate and 2.0% below the April 2023 rate. Permits for single-family home construction were 0.8% below the March figure. The number of housing starts, on the other hand, rose 5.7% in April but were 0.6% below the estimate from a year earlier. Single-family housing starts dipped 0.4% last month. Housing completions rose 8.6% in April and 14.6% above the April 2023 rate. Completions of single-family homes jumped 15.4% last month.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.608 per gallon on May 13, $0.035 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.072 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of May 13, the East Coast price fell $0.058 to $3.491 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.038 to $3.434 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.076 to $3.168 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.062 to $3.401 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.060 to $4.694 per gallon.
For the week ended May 11, there were 222,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 4 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 4 was 1,794,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 4,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 27 were in New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.3%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Rhode Island (1.8%), Illinois (1.7%), New York (1.7%), Alaska (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), Washington (1.6%), Connecticut (1.5%), and Minnesota (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 4 were in New York (+10,171), California (+3,595), Indiana (+2,367), Illinois (+1,836), and Texas (+1,253), while the largest decreases were in Iowa (-1,177), New Hampshire (-435), Connecticut (-334), Louisiana (-213), and Kentucky (-208).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week, the April data on sales of existing homes and new homes is released. March saw sales of existing homes decline, helping to draw sales down 3.7% over the last 12 months. New home sales advanced in March and are up over 8.0% for the year.

What I’m Watching This Week – 13 May 2024

Published on May 13, 2024 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 10, 2024)

The market closed last week higher. Investor sentiment was bolstered by good corporate earnings results from key megacaps. Of the 459 companies of the S&P 500 that have reported earnings, 77% beat consensus predictions. The Dow rode an eight-session winning streak, while the S&P 500 approached a record high. Among the market sectors, only consumer discretionary closed the week in the red. Utilities advanced 4.0% to lead the sectors, while financials, materials, consumer staples, communications services, and industrials outperformed. Treasury yields ended the week where they began. Crude oil prices advanced marginally. Gold prices jumped higher.

Stocks extended their rally from the previous week as each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains last Monday. The Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.0%, the Global Dow added 0.6%, and the Dow gained 0.5%. While stocks advanced, bond yields tumbled with 10-year Treasury yields dipping to 4.48%. Crude oil prices rose for the first time in several sessions, closing at $78.68 per barrel, up $0.57. The dollar was flat, while gold prices rose 1.1%.

Last Tuesday saw stocks inch higher, but enough to extend the Dow’s winning streak to five sessions and the S&P 500’s streak to four straight days. The Global Dow rose 0.4% and the Russell 2000 gained 0.2% to lead the benchmark indexes. The Nasdaq edged lower by 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped 2.6 basis points to 4.65%. Crude oil prices changed little from the day before, closing at about $78.55 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.3%, while gold prices fell 0.3%.

The Dow extended its winning streak to six straight sessions last Wednesday after gaining 0.4%. However, the remaining benchmark indexes listed here were either flat (S&P 500) or closed in the red. The Russell 2000 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.2%, and the Global Dow declined 0.1%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 2.9 basis points to 4.49%. Crude oil prices climbed to $79.21 per barrel. The dollar inched up 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.3%.

Each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained ground last Thursday, with the Dow extending its winning streak to seven consecutive sessions. The Russell 2000 and the Dow led the way, gaining 0.9%, followed by the S&P 500 and the Global Dow, which added 0.5%. The Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 4.3 basis points to 4.44%. Crude oil prices continued to advance this week, gaining $0.58 to $79.57 per barrel. The dollar slipped 0.3%, while gold prices rose 1.3%. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected (see below), offering more hope for an interest rate cut.

Stocks were mixed last Friday, with the Global Dow (0.4%), the Dow (0.3%), and the S&P 500 (0.2%) advancing, while the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) declined, and the Nasdaq ended the day marginally lower. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 5.5 basis points to 4.50%. Crude oil prices fell $0.92 per barrel. The dollar inched up, while gold prices finished the week on a strong note after gaining 1.3%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 5/10	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	38,675.68	39,512.84	2.16%	4.84%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	16,156.33	16,340.87	1.14%	8.86%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,127.79	5,222.68	1.85%	9.49%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,035.72	2,059.78	1.18%	1.61%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,607.56	4,690.89	1.81%	7.71%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.50%	4.50%	0 bps	64 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	105.03	105.31	0.27%	3.87%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$78.10	$78.32	0.28%	9.85%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,311.30	$2,369.50	2.52%	14.33%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The monthly Treasury statement for April showed a surplus of $210.0 billion. The impact of large tax deposits resulted in receipts of $776.0 billion, reduced by $567.0 billion in outlays, which yielded the surplus. The total budget deficit through the seven months of the fiscal year was $855.0 billion. Over the same period last fiscal year, the deficit sat at $925.0 billion.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.643 per gallon on May 6, $0.010 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.110 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of May 6, the East Coast price rose $0.009 to $3.549 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.057 to $3.396 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.052 to $3.244 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.037 to $3.463 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.042 to $4.754 per gallon.
For the week ended May 4, there were 231,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. This is the highest number of weekly claims for unemployment benefits since August 2023. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 27 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 27 was 1,785,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 20 were April 20 were in New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.3%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Illinois (1.7%), Minnesota (1.7%), New York (1.7%), Washington (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Alaska (1.5%), Connecticut (1.5%), and Pennsylvania (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 27 were in Iowa (+1,452), Illinois (+1,227), New Hampshire (+488), Ohio (+340), and Michigan (+330), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,083), Massachusetts (-3,306), Oregon (-1,729), Rhode Island (-1,626), and Connecticut (-1,409).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data is in the news this week with the release of the Consumer Price Index for April. Inflation has run hotter than expected over the past few months, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates higher. However, statements from Fed officials seem to indicate that another rate increase is not in the offing. However, unless inflation reverses course, it is likely that the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate for longer than most had hoped.

What I’m Watching This Week – 6 May 2024

Published on May 6, 2024 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close May 3, 2024)

The markets enjoyed a solid week of gains on the heels of favorable corporate earnings data and a softer-than-expected employment report (see below). Investors could be viewing the dip in job hires and wage growth as the fuel the Federal Reserve needs to consider interest rate cuts. The Fed has consistently maintained that a softening labor market would help drive inflation lower. The Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq led the benchmark indexes listed here. Ten-year Treasury yields, gold prices, and the dollar declined. Crude oil prices slid more than 6.5% amid rising inventories and a push for a Gaza ceasefire.

Stocks edged higher to start the week as investors awaited a batch of key earnings and the results of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The Russell 2000 added 0.7%, followed by the Global Dow (0.5%), the Nasdaq and the Dow (0.4%), and the S&P 500 (0.3%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries declined 5.5 basis points to 4.61%. Crude oil prices dipped $1.14 to $82.71 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.3%, while gold prices ticked up 0.1%.

U.S. stocks joined their global counterparts in turning sharply lower last Tuesday as investors awaited the release of important economic data and the latest policy statement from the Federal Reserve. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here declined, led by the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq, which lost 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Dow decreased 1.5%, and the Global Dow dipped 0.9%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 7.2 basis points to 4.68%. Crude oil prices fell a little over $1.00 to $81.58 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.7%, while gold prices lost 2.4%.

Only the Russell 2000 (0.3%) and the Dow (0.2%) closed higher last Wednesday after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected. The Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Global Dow each fell 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.59% after falling 9.1 basis points. Crude oil prices slid below $80.00 per barrel, settling at $79.20 per barrel. The dollar lost 0.5%, while gold prices advanced 1.1%.

Stocks closed higher last Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak. While investors probably conceded that interest rates will not be coming down any time soon, they took solace in the Fed’s suggestion that rates won’t be increasing either. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the session higher, led by the Russell 2000 (1.8%) and the Nasdaq (1.5%). The S&P 500 and the Dow advanced 0.9%, while the Global Dow gained 0.8%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell for the second straight day, dropping 2.4 basis points to 4.57%. Crude oil prices settled at $78.99 per barrel, little changed from the prior day. The dollar dipped 0.4%, while gold prices inched up 0.1%.

Wall Street continued to show resilience last Friday, as each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains. The Nasdaq rose 2.0%, followed by the S&P 500 (1.3%), the Dow (1.2%), the Russell 2000 (1.0%), and the Global Dow (0.8%). Bond prices rose, pulling yields lower, with 10-year Treasuries falling 7.1 basis points. Crude oil prices fell $0.82 per barrel. The dollar dipped 0.3%, while gold prices were flat.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2023 Close	Prior Week	As of 5/3	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	37,689.54	38,239.66	38,675.68	1.14%	2.62%
Nasdaq	15,011.35	15,927.90	16,156.33	1.43%	7.63%
S&P 500	4,769.83	5,099.96	5,127.79	0.55%	7.50%
Russell 2000	2,027.07	2,002.00	2,035.72	1.68%	0.43%
Global Dow	4,355.28	4,571.51	4,607.56	0.79%	5.79%
fed. funds target rate	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	5.25%-5.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	3.86%	4.66%	4.50%	-16 bps	64 bps
US Dollar-DXY	101.39	106.09	105.03	-1.00%	3.59%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.30	$83.65	$78.10	-6.63%	9.54%
Gold-GC=F	$2,072.50	$2,350.20	$2,311.30	-1.66%	11.52%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged following the conclusion of its meeting last Wednesday. The statement from the Committee noted the lack of further progress over the last several months toward driving inflation down to the Fed’s 2.0% target. The Committee also noted that, while achieving its dual goals of maximum employment and price stability are in better balance, the economic outlook continues to be uncertain, and the Committee remains attentive to inflation risks.
There were 175,000 new jobs added in April, lower than the monthly average of 242,000 over the past 12 months. In April, job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. The change in employment for February was revised down by 34,000, from 270,000 to 236,000, and the change for March was revised up by 12,000, from 303,000 to 315,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined was 22,000 lower than previously reported. In April, the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 3.9%. The number of unemployed was little changed at 6.5 million. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%, while the employment-population ratio, at 60.2%, dipped 0.1 percentage point. In April, average hourly earnings increased by $0.07, or 0.2%, to $34.75. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%. In April, the average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours.
According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings declined by less than 400,000 in March to 8.5 million. However, this figure is down by 1.1 million from a year ago. The number of hires, at 5.8 million, was little changed from the February total. There were 5.2 million total separations in March, 339,000 under the February total. Business activity in the services sector continued to increase in April but at a slower rate amid the first reduction in new orders since last October. Employment was also reduced as firms showed a reluctance to replace departed staff.
According to the latest survey of purchasing managers conducted by S&P Global®, manufacturing suffered its first setback of the year in April. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ fell to 50.0 in April, down from 51.9 in March. New orders decreased for the first time in four months as survey respondents noted clients reluctance to commit to new business amid subdued market conditions.
According to S&P Global US Services PMI®, business in the services sector expanded in April, but at a slower pace, as new orders declined for the first time since October. Hires also slowed as firms were hesitant to replace departed staff.
The goods and services trade deficit changed marginally in March from the previous month. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March, down $0.1 billion, or 0.1%, from the previous month. Exports declined $5.3 billion, or 2.0%, while imports fell $5.4 billion, or 1.6%. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $6.5 billion, or 3.2%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $9.1 billion, or 1.2%. Imports increased $15.6 billion, or 1.6%.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.653 per gallon on April 29, $0.015 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.053 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of April 29, the East Coast price was unchanged at $3.540 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.010 to $3.453 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.040 to $3.192 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.030 to $3.426 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.036 to $4.796 per gallon.
For the week ended April 27, there were 208,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 20 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 20 was 1,774,000, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 13 were New Jersey (2.5%), California (2.3%), Illinois (1.9%), Rhode Island (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Minnesota (1.8%), New York (1.7%), Washington (1.7%), Alaska (1.6%), and Nevada (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 20 were in Massachusetts (+3,575), Rhode Island (+1,737), Texas (+450), Colorado (+443), and California (+216), while the largest decreases were in New York (-4,253), Pennsylvania (-2,763), Oregon (-1,712), Georgia (-1,104), and Wisconsin (-994).

Eye on the Week Ahead

It is a very slow week for economic data, with only the Treasury budget statement for April available. Investors will be looking ahead to next week when the latest inflation data is released.