Tag: inflation

The Markets (as of market close May 1, 2026)

Wall Street continued to rally with equities ending last week on a strong note. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at record highs, driven by robust corporate earnings, a potential end to the U.S. military involvement in Iran, and easing crude oil prices. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains as stocks maintained momentum following their strongest monthly performance in years. Last week capped a solid week of corporate earnings. With over two-fifths of the S&P 500 companies reporting, 83% beat earnings expectations and 78% exceeded revenue forecasts. Market sectors were led by communication services, energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary. Materials, industrials, and health care lagged.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. In reaching its decision, the Committee noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Further, the developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. Finally, the Committee indicated that it would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2.0% objective.
• There was improvement in U.S. manufacturing in April, according to the latest S&P Global report. However, the acceleration in manufacturing is likely driven by companies trying to stockpile product in anticipation of price increases and supply shortages. Despite the rise in production, employment has fallen as higher costs influenced hiring decisions. Nevertheless, the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 54.5 in April, up from 52.3 in March, marking the strongest expansion in the manufacturing sector since May 2022.
• Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, the acceleration in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 reflected upturns in government spending (4.4%) and exports (12.9%), and an acceleration in investment (8.7%) that were partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending (1.6%). Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, were up (21.4%).
• Both personal income and disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) increased 0.6% in March, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.9% last month. From the preceding month, the PCE price index for March increased 0.7%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index rose 3.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2% from one year ago.
• The international trade in goods deficit for March was $87.9 billion, up $4.4 billion, or 5.3%, from the February estimate. Exports of goods were $5.2 billion, or 2.5%, above the February figure. Imports of goods were $9.6 billion, or 3.3%, more than February imports.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.6 billion, or 0.8%, according to the Census Bureau. This followed a 1.2% February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Computers and electronic products, up 11 of the last 12 months, led the increase, climbing $1.0 billion, or 3.7%.
• In March, the number of issued residential building permits fell 10.8% from February and 7.4% from March 2025. Last month, single-family permits fell 3.8%. The number of housing starts in March was 10.8% above the revised February estimate and 10.8% above the March 2025 rate. Single-family housing starts in March were 9.7% above the revised February figure. The number of housing completions in March was 0.1% above the revised February estimate but 12.8% below the March 2025 rate. Single-family housing completions in March were 4.8% below the revised February estimate.
• For the week ended April 25, there were 189,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 18 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 18 was 1,785,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 13,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 11 were New Jersey (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), California (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.1%), New York (2.0%), Minnesota (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Oregon (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), and Puerto Rico (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 18 were in New York (+2,885), California (+1,590), Tennessee (+1,562), Kentucky (+1,179), and South Carolina (+1,115), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,280), Pennsylvania (-2,742), Virginia (-1,528), Wisconsin (-1,248), and Indiana (-1,150).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.123 per gallon on April 27, $0.079 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.990 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 27, the East Coast price increased $0.070 to $3.958 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.095 to $3.884 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.058 to $3.675 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.080 to $4.016 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.092 to $5.412 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The labor report for April is available this week. Employment had been waning over the past several months prior to March, when job growth exceeded expectations.

The Markets (as of market close April 24, 2026)

Stocks continued to rally for the most part last week, fueled by cautious investor optimism that U.S. involvement in the Middle East may be nearing an end. In addition, cooler inflation data (see below) along with the start of what is hoped to be a resilient earnings season also contributed to the rally. A resurgence in mega-cap tech shares helped push the NASDAQ to a 10-day winning streak, its longest in several years. The S&P 500 finished just shy of its January record high. The Dow and the Global Dow each ticked lower, while the small caps of the Russell 2000 edged higher. Information technology, energy, and consumer staples led the market sectors, while health care and financials lagged. Gold and silver prices slipped as oil prices and the dollar gained strength.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Retail sales rose 1.7% in March from the previous month. Since March 2025, retail sales increased 4.0%. Retail trade sales were up 1.9% from February 2026 and 4.2% from last year. Nonstore (online) retail sales were up 10.1% from last year, while sales at food services and drinking places rose 2.4% from March 2025.

• For the week ended April 18, there were 214,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 11 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 11 was 1,821,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 4 were New Jersey (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Washington (2.2%), Minnesota (2.1%), California (2.0%), New York (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Michigan (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), and Puerto Rico (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 11 were in New York (+8,145), Connecticut (+1,747), Georgia (+1,288), Virginia (+1,227), and Texas (+1,074), while the largest decreases were in Oregon (-3,773), Illinois (-2,112), Maryland (-910), New Jersey (-864), and Ohio (-492).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.044 per gallon on April 20, $0.079 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.903 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 20, the East Coast price decreased $0.066 to $3.888 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.097 to $3.789 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.124 to $3.617 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.041 to $3.936 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.057 to $5.320 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The first estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2026 is available this week. GDP advanced a mere 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The report on Personal Income and Outlays is also out this week. Within that report is the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. According to the last report, inflation rose 0.4% in February and 2.8% for the year.

The Markets (as of market close April 10, 2026)

The U.S. stock market enjoyed a second straight rally last week as geopolitical tensions shifted, at least temporarily, from escalation to diplomacy. After a period of high volatility and risk aversion, investors were encouraged by the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the week with gains, while 10 of the 11 market sectors climbed, with the exception of energy. Information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary outperformed. Crude oil prices, which touched $112 per barrel earlier in the week, fell sharply following the aforementioned ceasefire. Economic data released last week was mixed. The third estimate of gross domestic product was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate (see below). The monthly government deficit widened and inflationary pressures remained sticky, although consumer spending ticked up. Treasury yields ended the week about where they started, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries rising at the end of last week.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The third and final estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 revealed that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.5%. In the third quarter of 2025, GDP increased 4.4%. Compared to the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending and the largest contributor to GDP, fell from 3.5% to 1.9%. Spending decreased for both goods and services. Gross domestic investment increased from no change in the third quarter to an increase of 2.3% in the fourth quarter. Nonresidential (business) investment rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter, outpacing residential investment, which fell 1.7%. Exports declined from 9.6% in the third quarter to -3.2% in the fourth quarter. Imports fell 1.0% in the fourth quarter after falling 4.4% in the previous quarter. Government spending declined 5.6% in the fourth quarter after rising 2.2% in the third quarter.
• According to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, originally scheduled for release on March 27, both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income fell 0.1% in February. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% in February. From January, the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4% in February. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.4%. For the 12 months ended in February, the PCE price index increased 2.8%, while prices less food and energy rose 3.0%.
• The Consumer Price Index for March jumped 0.9% following a 0.3% increase in February. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% last month, the same increase as in February. For the 12 months ended in March, consumer prices rose 3.3%, well above the 2.4% advance for the 12 months ended in February. Prices less food and energy rose 2.6% since March 2025. Energy prices, which rose 10.9% in March (including a 21.2% increase in gasoline prices), accounted for much of the monthly increase in overall prices. Shelter prices increased 0.3% in March, while prices for food were unchanged over the month. Prices for energy increased 12.5% for the 12 months ended March. Food prices increased 2.7% over the last year.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.4% in February, according to the latest data released by the Census Bureau. This followed a 0.5% January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2%. Transportation equipment, down four of the last five months, drove the overall decrease, falling 5.4% in February.
• The Federal budget saw a deficit of $164 billion in March. Receipts totaled $385 billion, while outlays were $549 billion. Through the first six months of the fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,169 billion. The deficit was $1,307 billion over the comparable period last fiscal year. So far in this fiscal year, receipts totaled $2,483 billion, while outlays were $3,651 billion.
• For the week ended April 4, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 28 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 28 was 1,794,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since May 11, 2024, when it was 1,791,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 21 were Rhode Island (2.7%), Massachusetts (2.6%), New Jersey (2.6%), Minnesota (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), California (2.1%), Illinois (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Michigan (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), Montana (1.8%), and Puerto Rico (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 28 were in Texas (+1,952), New York (+1,236), Oregon (+1,091), Wisconsin (+804), and Illinois (+721), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,751), Georgia (-1,059), Iowa (-1,057), Pennsylvania (-598), and Massachusetts (-459).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.120 per gallon on April 6, $0.130 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.877 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 6, the East Coast price increased $0.186 to $4.000 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.062 to $3.771 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.197 to $3.787 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.024 to $3.893 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.062 to $5.396 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week brings with it the release of multiple reports across several economic sectors. The report on existing home sales for March is available this week. February saw sales increase by 1.7%. The latest data on producer prices is also out this week. For the 12 months ended in February, producer prices have risen 3.4%. The March report on import and export prices follows February data, which showed an increase in both import and export prices. Finally, the Federal Reserve’s report on industrial production for March closes the week. Industrial production ticked up 0.2% in February.

The Markets (as of market close March 6, 2026)

Stocks ended last week sharply lower, impacted by renewed inflation and geopolitical events. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the week lower, while crude oil prices surged to the highest levels since August 2022, as intensifying tensions in the Middle East disrupted global energy trade. Higher energy costs triggered a move from risk, with industrials, consumer staples, and materials being hit the hardest. Surging oil prices also spiked inflation fears, while the labor sector continued to lag (see below). With last week’s decline, the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ each retreated to year-to-date lows.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The jobs sector continued to lag in February. According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment edged down by 92,000 last month, while the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. The number of unemployed people, at 7.6 million, rose by 203,000. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in February but was up from 1.5 million a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.3% of all unemployed people in February. Both the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio dipped 0.1 percentage point to 62.0% and 59.3%, respectively. The change in employment for December was revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000, and the change for January was revised down by 4,000, from +130,000 to +126,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined was 69,000 lower than previously reported. In February, average hourly earnings rose by $0.15, or 0.4%, to $37.32. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. Last month, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
• The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in February but at the slowest pace in seven months. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 51.6 last month, compared to 52.4 in January. February saw both output and new orders rise at slower rates, in part due to extreme weather and tariffs, which impacted trade.
• Similar to manufacturing, the services sector saw growth slow in February. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index decreased from 52.7 in January to 51.7 last month. Survey respondents reported that lower interest rates helped drive new business but uncertainty regarding tariffs and government policies limited the rate of demand, particularly for international business, which saw new export business decline marginally.
• Import prices increased 0.2% in January following a 0.2% advance in December. Higher prices for nonfuel imports (+0.5%) more than offset lower prices for fuel imports (-2.2%) in January. Import prices declined 0.1% from January 2025 to January 2026. Prices for exports rose 0.6% in January after rising 0.6% the previous month. Export prices advanced 2.6% over the 12-month period ended in January.
• Sales at the wholesale level slid 0.2% in January from the previous month. However, retail sales rose 3.2% from January 2025. Retail trade sales declined 0.2% in January but were up 3.0% from a year ago. Nonstore (online) retailer sales increased 1.9% in January and 10.9% from last year, while food service and drinking places sales dipped 0.2% in January but were up 3.9% from January 2025.
• For the week ended February 28, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 21 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 21 was 1,868,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 14 were Rhode Island (3.0%), New Jersey (2.9%), Massachusetts (2.8%), Washington (2.5%), Minnesota (2.4%), Illinois (2.2%), New York (2.2%), California (2.1%), Montana (2.1%), Oregon (2.0%), and Pennsylvania (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 21 were in Rhode Island (+1,515), Oklahoma (+351), Tennessee (+218), Hawaii (+202), and Maine (+125), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-3,577), New York (-2,694), Ohio (-1,956), Texas (-1,184), and Kentucky (-1,012).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.015 per gallon on March 2, $0.078 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.063 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 2, the East Coast price increased $0.048 to $2.882 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.119 to $2.794 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.112 to $2.644 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.096 to $2.758 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.049 to $4.160 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There are plenty of important economic reports out this week. The second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is out, while the latest inflation data is available with the release of the Consumer Price Index and the personal consumption expenditures price index.