Tag: inflation

The Markets (as of market close May 1, 2026)

Wall Street continued to rally with equities ending last week on a strong note. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at record highs, driven by robust corporate earnings, a potential end to the U.S. military involvement in Iran, and easing crude oil prices. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains as stocks maintained momentum following their strongest monthly performance in years. Last week capped a solid week of corporate earnings. With over two-fifths of the S&P 500 companies reporting, 83% beat earnings expectations and 78% exceeded revenue forecasts. Market sectors were led by communication services, energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary. Materials, industrials, and health care lagged.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 5/1	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	49,230.71	49,499.27	0.55%	2.99%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	24,836.60	25,114.44	1.12%	8.06%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,165.08	7,230.12	0.91%	5.62%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,787.00	2,812.82	0.93%	13.33%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,583.92	6,665.45	1.24%	8.04%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.31%	4.37%	6 bps	21 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	98.52	98.22	-0.30%	-0.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$95.43	$102.60	7.51%	78.56%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,721.60	$4,622.40	-2.10%	6.90%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. In reaching its decision, the Committee noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Further, the developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. Finally, the Committee indicated that it would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2.0% objective.
• There was improvement in U.S. manufacturing in April, according to the latest S&P Global report. However, the acceleration in manufacturing is likely driven by companies trying to stockpile product in anticipation of price increases and supply shortages. Despite the rise in production, employment has fallen as higher costs influenced hiring decisions. Nevertheless, the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 54.5 in April, up from 52.3 in March, marking the strongest expansion in the manufacturing sector since May 2022.
• Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, the acceleration in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 reflected upturns in government spending (4.4%) and exports (12.9%), and an acceleration in investment (8.7%) that were partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending (1.6%). Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, were up (21.4%).
• Both personal income and disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) increased 0.6% in March, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.9% last month. From the preceding month, the PCE price index for March increased 0.7%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index rose 3.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2% from one year ago.
• The international trade in goods deficit for March was $87.9 billion, up $4.4 billion, or 5.3%, from the February estimate. Exports of goods were $5.2 billion, or 2.5%, above the February figure. Imports of goods were $9.6 billion, or 3.3%, more than February imports.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.6 billion, or 0.8%, according to the Census Bureau. This followed a 1.2% February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Computers and electronic products, up 11 of the last 12 months, led the increase, climbing $1.0 billion, or 3.7%.
• In March, the number of issued residential building permits fell 10.8% from February and 7.4% from March 2025. Last month, single-family permits fell 3.8%. The number of housing starts in March was 10.8% above the revised February estimate and 10.8% above the March 2025 rate. Single-family housing starts in March were 9.7% above the revised February figure. The number of housing completions in March was 0.1% above the revised February estimate but 12.8% below the March 2025 rate. Single-family housing completions in March were 4.8% below the revised February estimate.
• For the week ended April 25, there were 189,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 18 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 18 was 1,785,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 13,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 11 were New Jersey (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), California (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.1%), New York (2.0%), Minnesota (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Oregon (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), and Puerto Rico (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 18 were in New York (+2,885), California (+1,590), Tennessee (+1,562), Kentucky (+1,179), and South Carolina (+1,115), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,280), Pennsylvania (-2,742), Virginia (-1,528), Wisconsin (-1,248), and Indiana (-1,150).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.123 per gallon on April 27, $0.079 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.990 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 27, the East Coast price increased $0.070 to $3.958 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.095 to $3.884 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.058 to $3.675 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.080 to $4.016 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.092 to $5.412 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The labor report for April is available this week. Employment had been waning over the past several months prior to March, when job growth exceeded expectations.

The Markets (as of market close April 24, 2026)

Stocks continued to rally for the most part last week, fueled by cautious investor optimism that U.S. involvement in the Middle East may be nearing an end. In addition, cooler inflation data (see below) along with the start of what is hoped to be a resilient earnings season also contributed to the rally. A resurgence in mega-cap tech shares helped push the NASDAQ to a 10-day winning streak, its longest in several years. The S&P 500 finished just shy of its January record high. The Dow and the Global Dow each ticked lower, while the small caps of the Russell 2000 edged higher. Information technology, energy, and consumer staples led the market sectors, while health care and financials lagged. Gold and silver prices slipped as oil prices and the dollar gained strength.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 4/24	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	49,447.43	49,230.71	-0.44%	2.43%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	24,468.48	24,836.60	1.50%	6.86%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,126.06	7,165.08	0.55%	4.67%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,776.90	2,787.00	0.36%	12.29%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,640.71	6,583.92	-0.86%	6.72%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.24%	4.31%	7 bps	15 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	98.18	98.52	0.35%	0.26%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$83.12	$95.43	14.81%	66.08%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,872.10	$4,721.60	-3.09%	9.20%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Retail sales rose 1.7% in March from the previous month. Since March 2025, retail sales increased 4.0%. Retail trade sales were up 1.9% from February 2026 and 4.2% from last year. Nonstore (online) retail sales were up 10.1% from last year, while sales at food services and drinking places rose 2.4% from March 2025.

• For the week ended April 18, there were 214,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 11 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 11 was 1,821,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 4 were New Jersey (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Washington (2.2%), Minnesota (2.1%), California (2.0%), New York (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), Illinois (1.8%), Michigan (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), and Puerto Rico (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 11 were in New York (+8,145), Connecticut (+1,747), Georgia (+1,288), Virginia (+1,227), and Texas (+1,074), while the largest decreases were in Oregon (-3,773), Illinois (-2,112), Maryland (-910), New Jersey (-864), and Ohio (-492).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.044 per gallon on April 20, $0.079 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.903 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 20, the East Coast price decreased $0.066 to $3.888 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.097 to $3.789 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.124 to $3.617 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.041 to $3.936 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.057 to $5.320 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The first estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2026 is available this week. GDP advanced a mere 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The report on Personal Income and Outlays is also out this week. Within that report is the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. According to the last report, inflation rose 0.4% in February and 2.8% for the year.

The Markets (as of market close April 10, 2026)

The U.S. stock market enjoyed a second straight rally last week as geopolitical tensions shifted, at least temporarily, from escalation to diplomacy. After a period of high volatility and risk aversion, investors were encouraged by the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the week with gains, while 10 of the 11 market sectors climbed, with the exception of energy. Information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary outperformed. Crude oil prices, which touched $112 per barrel earlier in the week, fell sharply following the aforementioned ceasefire. Economic data released last week was mixed. The third estimate of gross domestic product was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate (see below). The monthly government deficit widened and inflationary pressures remained sticky, although consumer spending ticked up. Treasury yields ended the week about where they started, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries rising at the end of last week.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 4/10	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	46,504.67	47,916.57	3.04%	-0.31%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	21,879.18	22,902.89	4.68%	-1.46%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,582.69	6,816.89	3.56%	-0.42%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,530.04	2,630.44	3.97%	5.98%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,305.77	6,506.80	3.19%	5.47%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.31%	4.31%	0 bps	15 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	100.01	98.67	-1.34%	0.42%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$111.72	$96.17	-13.92%	67.37%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,693.40	$4,779.60	1.84%	10.54%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The third and final estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 revealed that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.5%. In the third quarter of 2025, GDP increased 4.4%. Compared to the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending and the largest contributor to GDP, fell from 3.5% to 1.9%. Spending decreased for both goods and services. Gross domestic investment increased from no change in the third quarter to an increase of 2.3% in the fourth quarter. Nonresidential (business) investment rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter, outpacing residential investment, which fell 1.7%. Exports declined from 9.6% in the third quarter to -3.2% in the fourth quarter. Imports fell 1.0% in the fourth quarter after falling 4.4% in the previous quarter. Government spending declined 5.6% in the fourth quarter after rising 2.2% in the third quarter.
• According to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, originally scheduled for release on March 27, both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income fell 0.1% in February. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% in February. From January, the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4% in February. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.4%. For the 12 months ended in February, the PCE price index increased 2.8%, while prices less food and energy rose 3.0%.
• The Consumer Price Index for March jumped 0.9% following a 0.3% increase in February. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% last month, the same increase as in February. For the 12 months ended in March, consumer prices rose 3.3%, well above the 2.4% advance for the 12 months ended in February. Prices less food and energy rose 2.6% since March 2025. Energy prices, which rose 10.9% in March (including a 21.2% increase in gasoline prices), accounted for much of the monthly increase in overall prices. Shelter prices increased 0.3% in March, while prices for food were unchanged over the month. Prices for energy increased 12.5% for the 12 months ended March. Food prices increased 2.7% over the last year.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.4% in February, according to the latest data released by the Census Bureau. This followed a 0.5% January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2%. Transportation equipment, down four of the last five months, drove the overall decrease, falling 5.4% in February.
• The Federal budget saw a deficit of $164 billion in March. Receipts totaled $385 billion, while outlays were $549 billion. Through the first six months of the fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,169 billion. The deficit was $1,307 billion over the comparable period last fiscal year. So far in this fiscal year, receipts totaled $2,483 billion, while outlays were $3,651 billion.
• For the week ended April 4, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 28 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 28 was 1,794,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since May 11, 2024, when it was 1,791,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 21 were Rhode Island (2.7%), Massachusetts (2.6%), New Jersey (2.6%), Minnesota (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), California (2.1%), Illinois (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Michigan (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), Montana (1.8%), and Puerto Rico (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 28 were in Texas (+1,952), New York (+1,236), Oregon (+1,091), Wisconsin (+804), and Illinois (+721), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,751), Georgia (-1,059), Iowa (-1,057), Pennsylvania (-598), and Massachusetts (-459).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.120 per gallon on April 6, $0.130 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.877 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of April 6, the East Coast price increased $0.186 to $4.000 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.062 to $3.771 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.197 to $3.787 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.024 to $3.893 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.062 to $5.396 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week brings with it the release of multiple reports across several economic sectors. The report on existing home sales for March is available this week. February saw sales increase by 1.7%. The latest data on producer prices is also out this week. For the 12 months ended in February, producer prices have risen 3.4%. The March report on import and export prices follows February data, which showed an increase in both import and export prices. Finally, the Federal Reserve’s report on industrial production for March closes the week. Industrial production ticked up 0.2% in February.

The Markets (as of market close March 6, 2026)

Stocks ended last week sharply lower, impacted by renewed inflation and geopolitical events. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the week lower, while crude oil prices surged to the highest levels since August 2022, as intensifying tensions in the Middle East disrupted global energy trade. Higher energy costs triggered a move from risk, with industrials, consumer staples, and materials being hit the hardest. Surging oil prices also spiked inflation fears, while the labor sector continued to lag (see below). With last week’s decline, the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ each retreated to year-to-date lows.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 3/6	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	48,977.92	47,501.55	-3.01%	-1.17%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	22,668.21	22,387.68	-1.24%	-3.68%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,878.88	6,740.02	-2.02%	-1.54%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,632.36	2,525.30	-4.07%	1.75%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,690.82	6,381.29	-4.63%	3.44%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	3.96%	4.13%	17 bps	-3 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	97.63	98.92	1.32%	0.67%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$67.28	$90.83	35.00%	58.08%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$5,280.50	$5,178.10	-1.94%	19.76%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The jobs sector continued to lag in February. According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment edged down by 92,000 last month, while the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. The number of unemployed people, at 7.6 million, rose by 203,000. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in February but was up from 1.5 million a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.3% of all unemployed people in February. Both the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio dipped 0.1 percentage point to 62.0% and 59.3%, respectively. The change in employment for December was revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000, and the change for January was revised down by 4,000, from +130,000 to +126,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined was 69,000 lower than previously reported. In February, average hourly earnings rose by $0.15, or 0.4%, to $37.32. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. Last month, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
• The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in February but at the slowest pace in seven months. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 51.6 last month, compared to 52.4 in January. February saw both output and new orders rise at slower rates, in part due to extreme weather and tariffs, which impacted trade.
• Similar to manufacturing, the services sector saw growth slow in February. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index decreased from 52.7 in January to 51.7 last month. Survey respondents reported that lower interest rates helped drive new business but uncertainty regarding tariffs and government policies limited the rate of demand, particularly for international business, which saw new export business decline marginally.
• Import prices increased 0.2% in January following a 0.2% advance in December. Higher prices for nonfuel imports (+0.5%) more than offset lower prices for fuel imports (-2.2%) in January. Import prices declined 0.1% from January 2025 to January 2026. Prices for exports rose 0.6% in January after rising 0.6% the previous month. Export prices advanced 2.6% over the 12-month period ended in January.
• Sales at the wholesale level slid 0.2% in January from the previous month. However, retail sales rose 3.2% from January 2025. Retail trade sales declined 0.2% in January but were up 3.0% from a year ago. Nonstore (online) retailer sales increased 1.9% in January and 10.9% from last year, while food service and drinking places sales dipped 0.2% in January but were up 3.9% from January 2025.
• For the week ended February 28, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 21 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 21 was 1,868,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 14 were Rhode Island (3.0%), New Jersey (2.9%), Massachusetts (2.8%), Washington (2.5%), Minnesota (2.4%), Illinois (2.2%), New York (2.2%), California (2.1%), Montana (2.1%), Oregon (2.0%), and Pennsylvania (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 21 were in Rhode Island (+1,515), Oklahoma (+351), Tennessee (+218), Hawaii (+202), and Maine (+125), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-3,577), New York (-2,694), Ohio (-1,956), Texas (-1,184), and Kentucky (-1,012).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.015 per gallon on March 2, $0.078 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.063 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 2, the East Coast price increased $0.048 to $2.882 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.119 to $2.794 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.112 to $2.644 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.096 to $2.758 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.049 to $4.160 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There are plenty of important economic reports out this week. The second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is out, while the latest inflation data is available with the release of the Consumer Price Index and the personal consumption expenditures price index.

The Markets (as of market close January 30, 2026)

The U.S. stock market delivered a strong performance to kick off 2026. Market indexes reached record-setting levels. Overall, Wall Street showed resilience despite mixed corporate results and ongoing fiscal policy uncertainty. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed January in the black. The S&P 500 rose steadily throughout the month, even surpassing the 7,000 threshold for the first time in its history. The Dow’s gains reflected broad market strength, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ showed consistent upward momentum throughout the month. Entering February, investor sentiment remained cautiously optimistic.

January was a pivotal month for the U.S. economy, revealing both the strengths and vulnerabilities. The combination of fiscal stimulus, resilient corporate earnings, and technological innovation provided avenues for growth, but the headwinds from tariffs, a cooling labor market, and persistent inflation signaled a more challenging road ahead. The economy appears to be transitioning from stimulus-fueled expansion to a period of more modest, uneven growth. Gross domestic product ended the third quarter of 2025 with an annualized return of 4.4%. Forecasts suggest the fourth quarter GDP may tick down a bit.

Price pressures are moderating but remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, impacted by tariffs, both threatened and realized, and overall fiscal policy uncertainty.

The labor market continued to show signs of strain. Job growth slowed considerably, while the unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in December 2024 to 4.4% in December 2025.

Late in January, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, reinforcing expectations for a stable policy path, with possibly one or two rate cuts later in the year. Among the market sectors, energy, materials, consumer staples, industrials, and communication services advanced, marking a shift away from tech shares.

About one-third of the way through fourth-quarter earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting strong results according to the latest information from FactSet. Overall, 33.0% of the S&P 500 companies have reported actual earnings results for the fourth quarter. Of those companies, 75.0% reported actual earnings per share (EPS) above estimates, which is below the five-year average of 78% and below the 10-year average of 76.0%. Eight of the 11 sectors are reporting year-over-year growth, led by information technology, industrials, and communication services.

Ten-year Treasury yields climbed throughout January, reaching a multi-month high early in the month. The rise in yields was largely driven by a selloff of Treasury bonds, reflecting investor concerns about persistent inflation, a slowing labor market, and the perception that the Fed may need to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2026. Two-year Treasuries rose about 4.5 basis points in January.

Crude oil prices were on track for the first monthly increase in four months. Severe winter weather disrupted U.S. crude production, while supply concerns pushed prices sharply higher. The dollar hovered near four-year lows, making oil cheaper for foreign buyers and boosting demand. The retail price of regular gasoline was $2.853 per gallon on January 26, $0.012 above the price a month earlier but $0.250 lower than the price a year ago.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Month	As of 1/30	Monthly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	48,063.29	48,892.47	1.73%	1.73%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	23,241.99	23,461.82	0.95%	0.95%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,845.50	6,939.03	1.37%	1.37%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,481.91	2,626.55	5.83%	5.83%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,169.34	6,421.40	4.09%	4.09%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.16%	4.24%	8 bps	8 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	98.26	97.11	-1.17%	-1.17%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$57.46	$65.55	14.08%	14.08%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,323.90	$5,067.50	17.20%	17.20%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of January 30, 2026.

• Employment: Job growth was little changed in December, with the addition of 50,000 new jobs and has shown little change since April. The change in employment for October was revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined was 76,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in December, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous rate but 0.3 percentage point above the December 2024 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in December, at 7.5 million, edged down 278,000 from November but was 583,000 above the December 2024 estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.9 million from November and accounted for 26.0% of all unemployed persons. The total number of long-term unemployed in December was 397,000 above the estimate from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate inched down 0.1 percentage point to 62.4% in December from November and was 0.1 percentage point below the rate from December 2024. The employment-population ratio in December, at 59.7%, increased 0.1 percentage point from November and 0.2 percentage point from December 2024 (59.9%). In December, average hourly earnings increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, to $37.02. Over the past 12 months ended in December, average hourly earnings rose by 3.8%. The average workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in December.
• There were 209,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 24, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,827,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, the same rate as a year earlier. There were 210,000 initial claims a year ago, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,849,000.
• FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds target rate range at its current 3.50%-3.75%. The majority of the Committee members based their decision on the facts that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilization, job gains remained low, and inflation continued to be somewhat elevated. Ten members of the Committee voted in favor of the monetary policy decision, while two members voted to reduce rates by 25.0 basis points.
• GDP/budget: The economy expanded in the third quarter of 2025, impacted by a notable drop-off in goods imports due to tariffs, an increase in exports, and strong consumer spending. Gross domestic product accelerated at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter following an increase of 3.8% in the second quarter. A year ago, GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the third quarter. Consumer spending, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, rose 3.5% in the third quarter, higher than in the second quarter (2.5%) but below the 2024 pace of 4.0%. Spending on services rose 3.6% in the third quarter, compared with a 2.6% increase in the second quarter. Consumer spending on goods increased 3.0% in the third quarter (2.2% in the second quarter). Private domestic investment advanced from -13.8% in the second quarter to 0.0% in the third quarter. Nonresidential (business) fixed investment rose 3.2% in the third quarter compared with a 7.3% increase in the second quarter. Residential fixed investment declined 7.1% in the third quarter, higher than the 5.1% decrease in the second quarter. Exports rose 9.6% in the third quarter, compared with a 1.8% decrease in the previous quarter. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, declined 4.4% in the third quarter after falling 29.3% in the second quarter.
• December 2025 saw the federal budget deficit come in at $145 billion, roughly $58 billion more than the deficit of $87 billion from a year earlier. In December, receipts totaled $484 billion, while expenditures were $629 billion. Over the three months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $602 billion, 18% less than the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same three months, individual income taxes, at $606 billion, account for nearly half of the total receipts of $1,225 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $1,827 billion, of which Social Security ($402 billion) and National Defense ($267 billion) account for the largest outlays.
• Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, which covers October and November, personal income increased 0.1% in October, followed by a 0.3% advance in November. Disposable (after-tax) personal income ticked up 0.1% in October, followed by an increase of 0.3% in November. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.5% in October, the same increase as in November. From the preceding month, the PCE price index increased 0.2% in both October and November. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.2% in both months. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 2.7% in October, followed by an increase of 2.8% in November. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 2.7% in October, followed by an advance of 2.8% in November.
• The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.3% in December and 2.7% for the year, which was the same increase as over the 12 months ended in November. The largest factor in the December increase was a 0.4% rise in shelter prices. Food prices increased 0.7% over the month, while energy prices rose 0.3% in December. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in December. Over the last 12 months, prices for shelter rose 3.2%, energy prices increased 2.3%, and food prices increased 3.1%.
• The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Producer prices increased 3.0% in 2025 after advancing 3.5% in 2024. In December, prices for goods were unchanged from the previous month, while prices for services rose 0.7%. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, producer prices moved up 0.4% in December.
• Housing: Existing home sales rose 5.1% in December and 1.4% over the last 12 months. Inventory of existing homes for sale in December, at a 3.3-month supply, declined 21.4% from November’s estimate but was in line with the rate from December 2024. The median sales price in December was $405,400, down from $410,000 in November, but higher than the December 2024 estimate of $403,700. Sales of existing single-family homes also rose 5.1% in December (1.8% over the last 12 months). The median sales price for existing single-family homes in December was $409,500, down from the November price of $415,100, and marginally higher than the December 2024 price of $408,500.
• The latest report on new home sales from the Census Bureau was released on January 13 and was for October. Sales of new single-family houses in October 2025 were 0.1% below the September rate but 18.7% above the October 2024 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in October represented a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate, virtually unchanged from the September estimate but 15.1% below the estimate from a year earlier. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2025 was $392,300. This was 3.3% below the September 2025 price of $405,800 and 8.0% below the October 2024 price of $426,300. The average sales price of new houses sold in October 2025 was $498,000. This was 3.0% above the September 2025 price of $483,500 but was 4.6% below the October 2024 price of $521,900.
• Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) increased 0.4% in December and grew 2.0% for the year. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% in December and 2.0% for 2025. In December, the index for mining fell 0.7% (+1.7% for the year), while the index for utilities climbed 2.6% (+2.3% for 2025).
• New orders for durable goods, up three of the last four months, rose 5.3% in November. This followed a 2.1% September decline. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 6.6%. Transportation equipment led the November increase, climbing 14.7%, marking the third monthly increase in the last four months.
• Imports and exports: U.S. import prices increased 0.4% over the two months from September 2025 to November 2025, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Prices for exports increased 0.5% over the two months from September 2025 to November 2025. The BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. Prices for imports increased 0.1% from November 2024 to November 2025. Export prices increased 3.3% over the 12-month period ended in November.
• The international trade in goods deficit for August was $85.5 billion, 16.8% under the July estimate. Exports of goods for August dipped 1.3%, while imports of goods declined 7.0%. Over the 12 months ended in August, exports decreased 0.4% and imports fell 4.1%.
• The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released January 29, 2026, was for November and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $56.8 billion, an increase of $27.6 billion from the October deficit. November exports were $292.1 billion, $10.9 billion, or 3.6% less than October exports. November imports were $348.9 billion, $16.8 billion, or 5.0%, above the October estimate. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $32.9 billion, or 4.1%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $185.7 billion, or 6.3%. Imports increased $218.6 billion, or 5.8%.
• International markets: European equities opened 2026 with record highs, extending the strong rally from late 2025. Tech and defense stocks were the main drivers of gains in January. European investors mostly shrugged off geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. military involvement in Venezuela and tariff threats related to Greenland. Asian markets saw a heavy influx of capital and record-setting indexes but mixed performance across major countries. For January, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.6%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE advanced 2.5%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 5.9%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index increased 3.8%.
• Consumer confidence: January saw consumer confidence decline after a moderate increase in December. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased 9.7 points in January to 84.5 from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 9.9 points to 113.7 in January. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased 9.5 points to 65.1 in January, well below the threshold of 80.0 that usually signals a recession ahead.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Heading into February, investors will likely focus on international trade, AI and big tech companies, and whether there will be a shift in the U.S. monetary policy.

The Markets (as of market close January 9, 2026)

Wall Street responded to mixed economic data by closing higher last week. The Dow reached a record high, ending the week well above the 49,000 milestone, surpassing that mark for the first time in its history. Investors were not deterred by a rather lukewarm jobs report, as the S&P 500 closed at a new record high, while a mid-week profit-taking in tech and AI stocks wasn’t enough to prevent the NASDAQ from also closing notably higher. The Russell 2000, which is reactive to industrials, healthcare, and financials, outperformed the larger-cap indexes. Nine of the 11 market sectors ended the week higher, led by materials, industrials, and energy. Information technology and utilities closed marginally in the red. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked lower. Crude oil prices inched higher as markets responded to unrest in Iran and continued uncertainty over the Venezuelan crude oil supply.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 1/9	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	48,382.39	49,504.07	2.32%	3.00%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	23,235.63	23,671.35	1.88%	1.85%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,858.47	6,966.28	1.57%	1.76%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,508.22	2,624.22	4.62%	5.73%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,198.72	6,279.73	1.31%	1.79%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.18%	4.17%	-1 bps	1 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	98.42	99.14	0.73%	0.90%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$57.33	$58.84	2.63%	2.40%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,338.30	$4,518.40	4.15%	4.50%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Total employment rose by 50,000 in December, while the unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. Employment rose by 584,000 in 2025 (an average monthly gain of 49,000), less than 2.0 million increase in 2024 (an average monthly gain of 168,000). The change in total employment for October was revised down by 68,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined was 76,000 lower than previously reported. The total number of unemployed decreased by 278,000 in December to 7.5 million. The labor force participation rate, at 62.4%, was 0.1 percentage point less than the November estimate. The employment-population ratio inched up 0.1 percentage point to 59.7% last month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little over the month at 1.9 million but was up by 397,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 26.0% of all unemployed people in December. In December, average hourly earnings rose by $0.12, or 0.3%, to $37.02. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in December.
• According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings fell 303,000 to 7.1 million in November and declined 885,000 from a year earlier. The number of hires in November, at 5.4 million, was 253,000 fewer than the October estimate. The number of total separations in November, at 5.1 million, was practically unchanged from the previous month. The number of job openings for October was revised down by 221,000 to 7.4 million, the number of hires was revised up by 219,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 19,000 to 5.1 million.
• The services sector continued to expand in December, but at a slower pace than in the previous month. According to the latest survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global, business activity in the services sector registered 52.5 last month, signaling growth in activity, but at a slower pace than in November when the index came in at 54.1. Survey respondents indicated that growth of new business was the slowest in over a year-and-a-half, while confidence weakened as the number of new hires failed to rise for the first time since last February. Meanwhile, tariffs and higher labor-related costs drove operating expenses up to the greatest degree since last May, with firms passing their higher costs on to consumers.
• According to the latest report on international trade in goods and services, released January 8, 2026, the goods and services trade deficit for October was $29.4 billion, 39.0% lower than the September deficit but 7.7% above the estimate from October 2024. In October, exports rose 2.6%, while imports fell 3.2%. Year to date, exports increased 6.3% and imports rose 6.6%.
• The number of issued residential building permits dipped 0.2% in October, and 1.1% below the October 2024 rate, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau. Building permits for single-family residences fell 0.5% in October from the prior month. The number of housing starts declined 4.6% in October and 7.8% less than a year earlier. Housing completions in October were 1.1% above the September estimate but 15.3% below the October 2024 rate.
• For the week ended January 3, there were 208,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 27 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 27 was 1,914,000, an increase of 56,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 20 were Washington (2.5%), New Jersey (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Minnesota (2.2%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Alaska (2.0%), Montana (1.9%), Nevada (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), and Puerto Rico (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 27 were in New Jersey (+6,871), Pennsylvania (+5,406), Michigan (+4,794), Connecticut (+3,366), and Missouri (+2,532), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-7,951), California (-6,514), Florida (-1,981), North Carolina (-1,454), and Colorado (-1,226).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.796 per gallon on January 5, $0.015 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.251 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of January 5, the East Coast price decreased $0.003 to $2.778 per gallon; the Midwest price ticked down $0.021 to $2.585 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price dropped $0.018 to $2.372 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.031 to $2.403 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.023 to $3.708 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The latest inflation data should be available this week with the presumptive releases of the Consumer Price Index and the retail sales report. Government agencies are still trying to catch up following the government shutdown in October, so there is some uncertainty as to actual release dates for most economic reports.