The Markets (as of market close December 27, 2024)
Christmas week saw stocks climb higher, despite a tumble last Friday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, led by the Global Dow and the NASDAQ. Scant holiday trading amplified market moves during the week. Information technology led the market sectors, with health care, communication services, utilities, financials, and energy also outperforming. Bond values receded, pushing yields higher. The dollar edged up, while gold prices ticked lower. Crude oil prices gained after falling the previous week.
A surge in tech shares helped drive stocks generally higher last Monday. The NASDAQ led the benchmark indexes listed here, climbing 1.0%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.7%), the Global Dow (0.4%), and the Dow (0.2%). The small caps of the Russell 2000 dipped 0.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 7.5 basis points to 4.59%. Crude oil prices inched up 0.2% to settle at $69.59 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%, while gold prices fell 0.7%.
A “Santa Claus rally” saw stocks move higher on Christmas Eve. Megacaps led the surge, propelling the NASDAQ up 1.4%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.1%, the Russell 2000 climbed 1.0%, the Dow rose 0.9%, and the Global Dow added 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields were unchanged from the prior day, closing at 4.59%. Crude oil prices gained 1.2% to reach $70.10 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices gained 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
Stocks moved very little last Thursday during a light day of trading. The Russell 2000 was the only index listed here that made a noticeable move after gaining 0.9%, while the Global Dow inched up 0.2%. The NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Dow each moved less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.57%. Crude oil prices fell 0.8% to close at $69.55 per barrel. The dollar ticked down 0.1%, while gold prices gained 0.7%.
Last Friday saw stocks tumble, rocked by a late-week megacap swoon. The Russell 2000 lost 1.6%, the NASDAQ declined 1.5%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Dow dropped 0.8%, and the Global Dow slipped 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up to 4.61%. The dollar dipped 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.8%.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2023 Close
Prior Week
As of 12/27
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
37,689.54
42,840.26
42,992.21
0.35%
14.07%
Nasdaq
15,011.35
19,572.60
19,722.03
0.76%
31.38%
S&P 500
4,769.83
5,930.85
5,970.84
0.67%
25.18%
Russell 2000
2,027.07
2,242.37
2,244.59
0.10%
10.73%
Global Dow
4,355.28
4,844.06
4,897.69
1.11%
12.45%
fed. funds target rate
5.25%-5.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
-100 bps
10-year Treasuries
3.86%
4.52%
4.61%
9 bps
75 bps
US Dollar-DXY
101.39
107.82
108.02
0.19%
6.54%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.30
$69.49
$70.28
1.14%
-1.43%
Gold-GC=F
$2,072.50
$2,641.80
$2,632.50
-0.35%
27.02%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
New orders for long-lasting goods decreased 1.1% in November following an 0.8% increase in October. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, led the overall decrease, declining 2.9%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in November decreased 0.6%. New orders for defense capital goods in November declined 12.5%.
November saw sales of new single-family homes increase 5.9% from the previous month and 8.7% above the November 2023 rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800. The inventory of new houses for sale at the end of November represented a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate.
The international trade in goods deficit rose 4.7% in November. Exports increased 4.4% and imports advanced 4.5%. Since November 2023, the international trade in goods deficit increased by 16.1%. During that period, exports rose 6.1% and imports advanced 9.6%.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.024 per gallon on December 23, $0.008 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.092 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 23, the East Coast price ticked down $0.046 to $2.945 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.051 to $2.935 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.085 to $2.647 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price gained $0.048 to $2.887 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.010 to $3.775 per gallon.
For the week ended December 21, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 14 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 14 was 1,910,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 7 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Illinois (1.7%), Montana (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 14 were in Nebraska (+392), Kentucky (+378), Colorado (+169), Rhode Island (+141), and Delaware (+98), while the largest decreases were in New York (-6,807), Texas (-5,405), California (-5,279), Pennsylvania (-4,724), and Georgia (-4,662).
Eye on the Week Ahead
This is expected to be a slow week in the market and for important economic data. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey for December is available this week. The manufacturing sector has been slowly picking up steam heading into the new year. It is possible that the December purchasing managers’ index will actually show growth, which hasn’t happened in quite some time.
The Markets (as of market close December 20, 2024)
Despite a late-week rally, stocks tumbled lower last week as Wall Street appears to be limping into the new year. Each of the benchmark indexes lost value, with the Russell 2000 falling nearly 4.5%. For much of the week, investors seemed to move from risk, particularly in light of the Federal Reserve’s revised projection of fewer interest rate reductions in 2025. The decline in equities was broad-based, with each of the market sectors ending the week in the red, with real estate, energy, and materials falling the furthest. Bond yields reached a near seven-month high. Crude oil prices declined on concerns over waning demand. The dollar reached a two-year high earlier in the week, while gold prices ended the week lower.
Wall Street saw the week before Christmas get off to a rousing start. Tech stocks boosted the market prior to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting. The NASDAQ gained 1.2%, the Russell 2000 added 0.7%, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.4%. The Dow and the Global Dow each fell 0.3%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped minimally to 4.39%. Crude oil prices fell 1.0% to settle at $70.58 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices declined 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.
Stocks could not maintain the momentum garnered from the prior day as each of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value, led by the Russell 2000, which declined 1.2%. The Dow declined 0.6%, marking its ninth straight loss, which is its longest losing streak since 1978. The Global Dow fell 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ dipped 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Ten-year Treasury yields remained at 4.39%. Crude oil prices fell to $70.20 per barrel. The dollar inched up 0.1%, while gold prices dropped 0.3%.
Stocks plunged last Wednesday as investor sentiment was dampened following news that the Federal Reserve projected fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than previously suggested (see below). The Russell 2000 fell 4.4%, followed by the NASDAQ (-3.6%), the S&P 500 (-3.0%), the Dow (-2.6%), and the Global Dow (-2.1%). Ten-year Treasury yields gained nearly 11.0 basis points to reach 4.49%. Crude oil prices dipped to $70.00 per barrel. The dollar gained 1.0%, while gold prices declined 2.0%.
The Dow barely eked out a gain last Thursday to end its longest losing streak in 50 years. Stocks generally slid lower for the second straight session. The Global Dow declined 1.0% and the Russell 2000 lost 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each dipped 0.1%. Long-term bond values followed Wednesday’s decline by falling again on Thursday, lifting 10-year Treasury yields up 7.6 basis points to 4.57%. Crude oil prices slid 1.0%, settling at about $69.85 per barrel. The dollar advanced for the third consecutive day, while gold prices declined for the fourth day in a row.
Stocks bounced back last Friday as the latest inflation data came in slightly below expectations (see below). The Dow gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the NASDAQ advanced 1.0%, and the Russell 2000 climbed 0.9%. The Global Dow advanced 0.6%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 4.6 basis points. Crude oil prices ticked up 0.1%. The dollar fell 0.6%, while gold prices gained 1.3%.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2023 Close
Prior Week
As of 12/20
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
37,689.54
43,828.06
42,840.26
-2.25%
13.67%
Nasdaq
15,011.35
19,926.72
19,572.60
-1.78%
30.39%
S&P 500
4,769.83
6,051.09
5,930.85
-1.99%
24.34%
Russell 2000
2,027.07
2,346.90
2,242.37
-4.45%
10.62%
Global Dow
4,355.28
4,991.65
4,844.06
-2.96%
11.22%
fed. funds target rate
5.25%-5.50%
4.50%-4.75%
4.25%-4.50%
-25 bps
-100 bps
10-year Treasuries
3.86%
4.39%
4.52%
13 bps
66 bps
US Dollar-DXY
101.39
106.98
107.82
0.79%
6.34%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.30
$71.11
$69.49
-2.28%
-2.54%
Gold-GC=F
$2,072.50
$2,666.90
$2,641.80
-0.94%
27.47%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25.0 basis points, the third rate cut this year, while projecting two more rate cuts for 2025, which is fewer than previously indicated. In support of its decision, the Fed noted that the economy has expanded at a solid pace, labor conditions have eased, and inflation has progressed toward the Fed’s 2.0% target objective, although it remained somewhat elevated. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the central bank may proceed at a slower pace, partly because it has already lowered rates substantially and also due to the uncertain path inflation may take, coupled with potential policy changes under President-elect Trump.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index ticked up 0.1% in November following 0.2% increases in both September and October. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index rose 0.1%. Since November 2023, prices rose 2.4%. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 2.8%. It appears that price volatility in food and energy costs is the primary contributor to the overall increase in consumer prices. Personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each rose 0.3% last month. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, rose 0.4% in November.
According to the third and final estimate, gross domestic product advanced 3.1% in the third quarter, 0.1 percentage point above the estimate for the second quarter. The increase in GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending (3.7%), exports (9.6%), nonresidential fixed investment (4.0%), and federal government spending (8.9%). Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, increased to 10.7%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5%, the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2%. Gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.1% in the third quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of GDP and GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.6% in the third quarter.
Retail sales rose 0.7% in November and 3.8% over the last 12 months. Retail trade sales were up 0.9% last month and 4.1% from last year. The November increase in retail sales was largely attributable to a 2.6% advance in sales from motor vehicle & parts dealers and a 1.8% increase in nonstore (online) retail sales. Food & beverage store sales (including grocery store sales) declined 0.2% in November. For the year, nonstore retail sales rose 9.8%, motor vehicle & parts dealers sales increased 6.5%, sales from food & beverage stores advanced 1.8%, department store sales increased 1.4%, while gasoline station sales fell 3.9%.
Industrial production moved down 0.1% in November after declining 0.4% in October. In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2%, boosted by a 3.5% increase in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The indexes for mining and utilities fell 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively. Total industrial production in November was 0.9% below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped down to 76.8% in November, a rate that is 2.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2023) average.
The number of issued residential building permits rose 6.1% in November but were 0.2% below the November 2023 rate. Issued building permits for single-family homes ticked up 0.1% last month but were 2.7% under the estimate from a year earlier. Housing starts declined 1.8% in November and 14.6% below the November 2023 estimate. Single-family housing starts were 6.4% above the prior month’s total but 10.2% under the November 2023 figure. Housing completions in November were 1.9% below the October estimate but were 9.2% above the November 2023 rate. Single-family housing completions in November were 3.3% above the October rate and 7.0% above the estimate from a year ago.
Existing home sales grew by 4.8% in November from the prior month. Over the last year, sales of existing homes rose 6.1%. Unsold inventory sat at a 3.8-month supply last month, down from 4.2 months in October but up from 3.5 months in November 2023. The median existing home price in November was $406,100, down marginally from the October estimate ($406,800) but up 4.7% from one year ago ($387,800). Single-family home sales increased 5.0% in November and 7.4% from November 2023. The median existing single-family home price was $410,900 in November, down from $411,700 in October but up 4.8% from November 2023 ($392,200). According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.6% as of December 12. That’s down from 6.69% one week ago and 6.95% one year ago.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.016 per gallon on December 16, $0.008 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.037 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 16, the East Coast price ticked down $0.008 to $2.991 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.076 to $2.884 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.041 to $2.562 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.053 to $2.839 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.042 to $3.785 per gallon.
For the week ended December 14, there were 220,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 7 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 7 was 1,874,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 30 were New Jersey (2.5%), California (2.3%), Washington (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Rhode Island (1.9%), Nevada (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Illinois (1.7%), Massachusetts (1.7%), Montana (1.7%), New York (1.7%), Oregon (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 7 were in California (+14,411), Texas (+10,011), New York (+8,926), Illinois (+7,426), and Georgia (+6,119), while the largest decreases were in North Dakota (-788) and Delaware (-163).
Eye on the Week Ahead
There isn’t much in the way of important economic data during Christmas week, and trading customarily slows down. The report on the manufacture of durable goods for November is worth noting. New orders for durable goods are indicative of how busy factories will be in the coming months. In October, new orders rose 0.2%, driven mostly by a bump in transportation.
The Markets (as of market close December 13, 2024)
Stocks pulled back last week as tech shares pared gains from the prior week. The NASDAQ posted a minimal gain, while the S&P 500 retreated from recent record highs. Nine of the 11 market sectors declined last week, with only consumer discretionary and communication services advancing. Investors will be paying close attention to the Federal Open Market Committee, which meets December 17-18, at which time the Committee will have to decide if the recent uptick in price inflation is sufficient to defer another interest rate cut. While the November Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index came in as expected (see below), data from both sources showed inflationary pressures moved further away from the Fed’s 2.0% target. This trend, coupled with a solid labor market, opens the possibility that the Committee may decide to wait until the January 2025 meeting before considering a further interest rate reduction. Nevertheless, the consensus remains that the Fed will reduce the federal funds rate by 25.0 basis points when it meets this week. Crude oil prices rose to their highest levels in three weeks, buoyed by expectations of an increase in demand following China’s economic stimulus and potential supply disruptions resulting from U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia.
Wall Street saw stocks trend lower to kick off last week. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value. The NASDAQ, the Russell 2000, and the S&P 500 each fell 0.6%. The Dow lost 0.5%, and the Global Dow dipped 0.2%. A Chinese government antitrust probe into a major AI company saw its shares tumble, which led a retreat in tech stocks. Investors also may have been reticent about risk pending the upcoming inflation data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 4.8 basis points to 4.20%. Crude oil prices advanced to $68.11 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.1%, and gold prices climbed 0.8%.
Stocks continued to slide last Tuesday as investors awaited the upcoming Consumer Price Index report. The Global Dow fell 0.5%, while the Russell 2000 lost 0.4%. The NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Dow each declined 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.22%. Crude oil prices, at $68.38 per barrel, changed marginally. The dollar gained 0.3%, while gold prices rose 1.2%.
Following two days of losses, stocks climbed higher last Wednesday, led by a jump in tech shares, while stocks in communication services and consumer discretionary also trended higher. The NASDAQ gained 1.8% to reach a record high. The S&P 500 climbed 0.8%, the Russell 2000 advanced 0.6%, and the Global Dow rose 0.2%. The Dow slipped 0.2%. Bond prices fell, pushing yields higher, with 10-year Treasuries advancing to 4.27%. Crude oil prices surged 2.5% to $70.31 per barrel as supply concerns increased following the European Union’s approval of sanctions against Russian oil exports. The dollar rose 0.3%, and gold prices moved up 1.3%.
Last Thursday, a jump in producer prices (see below) and unemployment claims (see below) cooled investors’ appetite for risk. The Russell 2000 fell 1.4%. The NASDAQ slid 0.7%, the Dow and the S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, and the Global Dow dipped 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields gained 5.3 basis points to close at 4.32%. Crude oil prices declined 0.3% to settle at $70.08 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.3%, while gold prices fell 1.9%.
Stocks closed mostly lower last Friday, with only the NASDAQ ticking up 0.1%. The S&P 500 was unchanged, while the Russell 2000 dropped 0.6%, and both the Dow and the Global Dow fell 0.2%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries gained 7.5 basis points. Crude oil prices ended an up-and-down week by climbing 1.7%. The dollar was flat, while gold prices fell 1.6%.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2023 Close
Prior Week
As of 12/13
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
37,689.54
44,642.52
43,828.06
-1.82%
16.29%
Nasdaq
15,011.35
19,859.77
19,926.72
0.34%
32.74%
S&P 500
4,769.83
6,090.27
6,051.09
-0.64%
26.86%
Russell 2000
2,027.07
2,408.99
2,346.90
-2.58%
15.78%
Global Dow
4,355.28
5,041.08
4,991.65
-0.98%
14.61%
fed. funds target rate
5.25%-5.50%
4.50%-4.75%
4.50%-4.75%
0 bps
-75 bps
10-year Treasuries
3.86%
4.15%
4.39%
24 bps
53 bps
US Dollar-DXY
101.39
105.98
106.98
0.94%
5.51%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.30
$67.15
$71.11
5.90%
-0.27%
Gold-GC=F
$2,072.50
$2,653.80
$2,666.90
0.49%
28.68%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The Consumer Price Index posted the largest gain in seven months after climbing 0.3% in November. For the 12 months ended in November, the CPI advanced 2.7%, up 0.1 percentage point from the comparable period ended in October. Core prices, excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, also advanced 0.3% last month and 3.3% over the last 12 months. Food prices increased 0.4% last month, driven by a 0.5% jump in prices for food at home. For the year, prices for food advanced 2.4%. Energy prices rose 0.2% in November but declined 3.2% over the last 12 months. Other categories that saw price increases in November include shelter, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, new vehicles, and recreation. Prices for communication were among the few major categories that decreased over the month. Shelter costs rose 0.3% for the month and 4.7% for the year. While the latest increases in shelter costs showed some moderation, at nearly 40% of the total basket of goods and services, shelter costs continue to keep the CPI above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target.
Prices at the wholesale level rose 0.4% in November, according to the latest Producer Price Index. Prices increased 0.3% (revised) the prior month. For the 12 months ended in November, producer prices advanced 3.0%, up 0.8 percentage point from the 12-month period ended in October. This was the largest 12-month increase since prices rose 4.7% for the year ended in February 2023. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 60.0% of the increase in the November PPI was attributable to a 0.7% increase in prices for goods. Prices for services moved up 0.2%. Food prices jumped 3.1% last month after being flat in October and have risen 5.1% since November 2023. Prices less food and energy increased 0.2% last month and 3.4% for the year. Prices less food, energy, and trade services inched up 0.1% in November and 3.5% for the last 12 months.
The Treasury budget deficit for November was $367 billion, well above the October estimate and $53 billion more than the deficit from last November. Contributing to the November deficit were outlays for military active duty and retirement, veterans benefits, Supplemental Security Income, and Medicare payments to health maintenance organizations and prescription drug plans, which accelerated into November, because December 1, 2024, the normal payment date, fell on a non-business day. According to the Department of the Treasury report, November has been a deficit month 70 out of 71 fiscal years. Through the first two months of fiscal year 2025, the cumulative deficit is $624 billion.
Prices for imports increased 0.1% for the second consecutive month in November and 1.3% over the last 12 months, the largest one-year advance since the period ended July 2024. After declining 0.8% in October, import fuel prices rose 1.0% in November, greatly contributing to the overall increase in import prices. Import prices excluding fuel were unchanged in November. Export prices were unchanged in November after increasing 1.0% the previous month. Higher nonagricultural prices in November offset lower agricultural prices. Export prices rose 0.8% over the past year, the largest 12-month advance since a 1.2% increase from July 2023 to July 2024.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.008 per gallon on December 9, $0.026 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.128 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 9, the East Coast price ticked up $0.010 to $2.999 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.094 to $2.808 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.022 to $2.603 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.001 to $2.786 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.036 to $3.827 per gallon.
For the week ended December 7, there were 242,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 30 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 30 was 1,886,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s level. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 23 were New Jersey (2.2%), Alaska (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), California (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Rhode Island (1.8%), Minnesota (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), Massachusetts (1.6%), and New York (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 30 were in Wisconsin (+1,785), North Dakota (+1,004), Kentucky (+731), Pennsylvania (+642), and Iowa (+252), while the largest decreases were in California (-10,113), Texas (-5,996), Florida (-2,373), Georgia (-2,239), and New York (-1,946).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The Federal Reserve meets for the last time this year. Many expect the Fed to drop interest rates by 25.0 basis points. The third and final estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter is also out this week. The last reading had the economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.8%.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report (see below) helped drive stocks mostly higher last week and raise optimism of an interest rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets later in December. Consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology helped drive the market, which was otherwise tempered by downturns in energy, utilities, real estate, and materials. Long-term bond prices were relatively stable, with yields on 10-year Treasuries slipping 2.0 basis points from the prior week’s closing mark. Crude oil prices declined on demand fears despite OPEC+’s decision to extend production cuts until the end of 2026. The dollar inched higher, while gold prices dipped lower.
A surge in tech shares and large-cap stocks drove the NASDAQ (1.0%) and the S&P 500 (0.24%) to record highs last Monday. Along with information technology, other sectors outperforming were communication services and consumer discretionary. The Global Dow gained 0.1%, while the Dow (-0.3%) declined. The small caps of the Russell 2000 ended the day essentially unchanged. Yields on 10-year Treasuries inched up to 4.19%. Crude oil prices settled at $68.09 per barrel. The dollar climbed 0.6%, partially rebounding from a 1.7% decline the previous week. Gold prices fell 0.7% to $2,661.60 per ounce.
Last Tuesday saw both the NASDAQ (0.4%) and the S&P 500 (0.1%) notch new record highs, while the Russell 2000 (-0.8%) and the Dow (-0.2%) declined. The Global Dow inched up 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked up to 4.22%. Crude oil prices closed the session at about $69.99 per barrel, an increase of 2.8% from the previous day’s estimate. The dollar dipped 0.1%, while gold prices increased 0.3%.
All three major market indexes reached new record highs last Wednesday. The NASDAQ (1.3%), the Dow (0.7%), and the S&P 500 (0.6%) each posted notable gains, with the Dow closing above 45,000 for the first time in its history. Tech stocks continued to thrive, while some encouraging earnings reports from major companies bolstered investor confidence. The small caps of the Russell 2000 gained 0.4%, while the Global Dow dipped 0.1%. Crude oil prices gave back some of the prior day’s gains, falling 1.7% to $68.72 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.18%. The dollar was unchanged, while gold prices rose 0.2%.
The markets trended lower last Thursday ahead of Friday’s employment data, which could be the determining factor in whether the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates later this month. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Global Dow (0.3%) ended higher. The Russell 2000 fell 1.3%, while the Dow lost 0.6%. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ dipped 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields were flat, crude oil prices slipped to $68.41 per barrel, the dollar fell 0.6%, and gold prices declined 0.8%.
Stocks closed last week with mixed results. The Dow (-0.3%) and the Global Dow (-0.1%) declined, while the NASDAQ (0.8%), the Russell 2000 (0.5%), and the S&P 500 (0.3%) advanced. Last Friday’s gains sent both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 to new record highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped to 4.15%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.7%. The dollar and gold prices each increased by 0.3%.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2023 Close
Prior Week
As of 12/6
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
37,689.54
44,910.65
44,642.52
-0.60%
6.89%
Nasdaq
15,011.35
19,218.17
19,859.77
3.34%
18.09%
S&P 500
4,769.83
6,032.38
6,090.27
0.96%
15.41%
Russell 2000
2,027.07
2,434.73
2,408.99
-1.06%
7.76%
Global Dow
4,355.28
5,016.35
5,041.08
0.49%
9.30%
fed. funds target rate
5.25%-5.50%
4.50%-4.75%
4.50%-4.75%
0 bps
-75 bps
10-year Treasuries
3.86%
4.17%
4.15%
-2 bps
29 bps
US Dollar-DXY
101.39
105.74
105.98
0.23%
4.53%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.30
$68.00
$67.15
-1.25%
-5.82%
Gold-GC=F
$2,072.50
$2,657.00
$2,653.80
-0.12%
28.05%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
As anticipated, the labor sector recovered from severe weather and strike activity in the previous month. Employment rose by 227,000 in November following upward revisions to both September (+32,000) and October (+24,000). Employment increased by an average of 186,000 per month over the 12 months prior to November. The unemployment rate, at 4.2%, rose by 0.1 percentage point, while the number of unemployed increased by 161,000 to 7.1 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.7%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, 0.1 percentage point lower than the October estimate. The employment-population ratio declined 0.2 percentage point to 59.8%. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.7 million in November but was up from 1.2 million a year earlier. In November, the long-term unemployed accounted for 23.2% of all unemployed people. In November, average hourly earnings rose by $0.13, or 0.4%, to $35.61. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%. The average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in November.
The manufacturing sector picked up steam in November, according to the latest survey from S&P Global. Purchasing managers noted that the reduction in new orders was at the slowest pace in the last five months. Some manufacturers indicated that domestic demand conditions had started to improve, however new export orders decreased at a sharper pace as international demand worsened. Although the pace of reduction in total new orders eased, a further decline in new business contributed to another drop in manufacturing production for the fourth straight month. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ remained below the 50.0 break-even mark in November, but at 49.7, pointed to only a marginal worsening in the health of the manufacturing sector.
Business activity increased in the services sector in November at the fastest pace since March 2022. The expansion in services was largely driven by the largest rise in new business in just over two-and-a-half years. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index rose to 56.1 in November, up from 55.0 in October and above the 50.0 neutral mark for the 22nd consecutive month.
The number of job openings, at 7.7 million, increased by 372,000 in October from the prior month, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. Despite the increase, job openings were 941,000 under the pace a year earlier. In October, the number of hires fell 269,000 to 5.3 million and was down by 501,000 over the year. Total separations, which includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, were little changed at 5.3 million but were down 369,000 from October 2023.
The latest report on the international trade deficit was released December 5 and was for October. The goods and services deficit was $73.8 billion, down $10.0 billion, or 11.9%, from September. October exports were $265.7 billion, $4.3 billion, or 1.6%, less than September exports. October imports were $339.6 billion, $14.3 billion, or 4.0%, less than September imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $80.7 billion, or 12.3%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $94.0 billion, or 3.7%. Imports increased $174.7 billion, or 5.4%.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.034 per gallon on December 2, $0.010 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.197 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 2, the East Coast price ticked down $0.022 to $2.989 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.036 to $2.902 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.054 to $2.581 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.041 to $2.787 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.021 to $3.863 per gallon.
For the week ended November 30, there were 224,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 23 was 1.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 23 was 1,871,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 16 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), Alaska (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Nevada (1.7%), Rhode Island (1.7%), Massachusetts (1.6%), Minnesota (1.6%), and New York (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 23 were in California (+4,573), Illinois (+2,814), Pennsylvania (+2,785), Georgia (+2,152), and Michigan (+1,976), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-853), Delaware (-94), Hawaii (-57), Virginia (-21), and West Virginia (-4).
Eye on the Week Ahead
November inflation data is available this week with the releases of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). October saw the CPI rise 0.2% for the month and 2.6% for the year, while the PPI ticked up 0.2% for October and 2.2% for the year.
The Markets (as of market close November 29, 2024)
Stocks posted strong gains for November, which saw the S&P and the Dow have their best months of the year. The gains likely reflected investor optimism that a second Trump administration will favor businesses, with the hope that the President-elect will take a more moderate stance on trade tariffs. All 11 market sectors ended November higher, led by consumer discretionary and financials. Year to date, financials and information technology increased by more than 36.0%.
The latest data showed inflation has stubbornly resisted falling lower. For the 12 months ended in October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ticked up 0.2 percentage point to 2.6%, while the annual rate for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index came in at 2.3%, 0.2 percentage point above the rate for the same period ended in September. Over the last three months, inflation has moved away from the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%, making it less likely that December will see another cut in the fed funds rate.
Growth of the U.S. economy continued at a modest pace. The gross domestic product (GDP) met expectations after increasing 2.8% in the third quarter following a 3.0% increase in the second quarter (see below). Personal consumption expenditures, the largest contributor in the calculation of GDP, rose 3.5%, with spending rising in durable goods and nondurable goods. Government expenditures rose 5.0%, imports grew more than exports, while gross domestic investment increased 1.1%.
Job growth rose by a mere 12,000 in October following a downward revision of 112,000 in the prior two months. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, while the number of unemployed increased marginally. Wage growth rose 0.4% in October and 4.0% over the past 12 months. The employment data may have been skewed due to Hurricanes Milton and Helene. As a result, the Fed will likely wait until more information is available before assessing whether the labor sector has suddenly decelerated. The latest unemployment data may encourage tempering the pace of further rate cuts. While new weekly unemployment claims were unchanged from a year ago, total claims paid increased by over 90,000 (see below).
The S&P reported earnings growth of 5.8% in the third quarter. Roughly 75% of companies reported earnings per share above estimates, which is below the five-year average of 77% but equal to the 10-year average. Seven of the 11 sectors reported year-over-year growth, led by the communication services and health care sectors.
The real estate sector reversed course in October from September. Sales of existing homes increased in October after falling in September. New-home sales, which increased in September, plunged in October (see below). Mortgage rates have shown little downward movement, which has impacted sales. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78% as of November 14. That’s down from 6.79% one week ago and 7.44% one year ago.
Industrial production retracted for the second consecutive month in October (see below). Manufacturing output and mining decreased, while utilities increased. Purchasing managers reported manufacturing continued to slow in October as new orders decreased for the fourth month running. On the other hand, the services sector grew modestly higher in October.
Ten-year Treasury yields closed the month down by nearly 10.0 basis points as the probability of an interest rate cut in December waned. The two-year note closed November at 4.25%, down 3.0 basis points from a month earlier. The dollar strengthened, closing up nearly 2.0%. Gold prices declined in November after hitting a record high in October. Crude oil prices decreased by the end of the month as investors awaited further insights into production plans from OPEC+. The retail price of regular gasoline was $3.044 per gallon on November 25, $0.053 below the price a month earlier and $0.194 less than the price a year ago.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2023 Close
Prior Month
As of November 29
Monthly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
37,689.54
41,763.46
44,910.65
7.54%
19.16%
NASDAQ
15,011.35
18,095.15
19,218.17
6.21%
28.02%
S&P 500
4,769.83
5,705.45
6,032.38
5.73%
26.47%
Russell 2000
2,027.07
2,196.65
2,434.73
10.84%
20.11%
Global Dow
4,355.28
4,892.56
5,016.35
2.53%
15.18%
fed. funds target rate
5.25%-5.50%
4.75%-5.00%
4.50%-4.75%
-25 bps
-75 bps
10-year Treasuries
3.86%
4.28%
4.17%
-11 bps
31 bps
US Dollar-DXY
101.39
103.89
105.74
1.78%
4.29%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.30
$70.40
$68.00
-3.41%
4.63%
Gold-GC=F
$2,072.50
$2,756.30
$2,657.00
-3.60%
28.20%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.
Latest Economic Reports
Employment: Total employment increased by 12,000 in October, well below the consensus of 125,500 and lower than the 12-month average gain of 194,000. The October estimate followed downward revisions in August and September, which, combined, were 112,000 lower than previously reported. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes Helene and Milton affected labor data collection. In October, job gains occurred in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs, as did manufacturing, due to strike activity. The unemployment rate for October was unchanged at 4.1% but was 0.3 percentage point above the rate from a year earlier. The number of unemployed persons, at 7.0 million, was 150,000 above the September figure and 541,000 above the October 2023 estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) at 1.6 million, was relatively unchanged from the prior month’s total and accounted for 22.9% of all unemployed people. The labor force participation rate, at 62.6%, was 0.1 percentage point lower than September’s rate, while the employment-population ratio declined 0.2 percentage point to 60.0%. In October, average hourly earnings increased by $0.13, or 0.4%, to $35.46. Since October 2023, average hourly earnings rose 4.0%. The average workweek remained at 34.3 hours.
There were 213,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 23, 2024. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,907,000. A year ago, there were 213,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,813,000.
FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee met in November, which resulted in a 25.0-basis-point reduction in the fed funds target rate range to 4.50%-4.75%. The Committee noted that the economy had experienced a solid pace of expansion and inflation progressed toward the Committee’s 2.0% objective but remained somewhat elevated. The Committee will remain responsive to economic data in making future policy decisions.
GDP/budget: According to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, accelerated at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. GDP increased 3.0% in the second quarter. Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment (8.3% to 1.1%) and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment (-2.8% to -5.0%). These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports (1.0% to 7.5%), personal consumption expenditures (2.8% to 3.5%), and federal government spending (4.3% to 8.9%). Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, accelerated 10.2%. Personal consumption expenditures (2.37%) contributed the most to overall economic growth. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE index, increased 1.5%, compared with an increase of 2.5% in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1%, compared with an increase of 2.8% in the prior quarter.
October was the first month of fiscal year 2025 for the federal government. In October, the federal budget statement showed a deficit of $257 billion versus a deficit of $67 billion a year ago. In October, government receipts totaled $327 billion, with the majority coming from collection of individual income taxes ($168 billion) and social insurance and retirement receipts ($122 billion). Government outlays were $584 billion, the largest of which came from payments for Social Security ($125 billion) and national defense ($103 billion).
Inflation/consumer spending: The PCE price index ticked up 0.2% in October, the same increase as in September. Prices for goods decreased 0.1%, while prices for services rose 0.4%. Food prices were unchanged in October from September, while energy prices decreased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3% in October. The 12-month PCE price index for October increased 2.3%. Prices excluding food and energy rose 2.8% from one year ago. Also in October, personal income rose 0.6% and disposable (after-tax) personal income increased 0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.4% in October, down from a 0.6% advance in the previous month.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in October, the same increase as in each of the previous three months. Over the 12 months ended in October, the CPI rose 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from the 12-month period ended in September. Prices for shelter rose 0.4% in October, accounting for over one-third of the overall monthly increase. In addition to shelter prices, the October CPI also saw prices increase in used cars and trucks, airline fares, medical care, and recreation. Prices for apparel, communication, and household furnishings and operations were among those that decreased over the month. Excluding food and energy (core prices), the CPI rose 0.3% in October, unchanged from September and August. Core prices advanced 3.3% from October 2023.
The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in October after ticking up 0.1% (revised) in September. In October, prices for services increased 0.3%, while prices for goods inched up 0.1%. For the 12 months ended in October, producer prices advanced 2.4%. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3% in October after moving up 0.1% in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5%.
Housing: Sales of existing homes rose 3.4% in October after falling 1.0% in September. Existing-home prices increased 2.9% over the past 12 months. According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), increasing inventory, additional job gains, and continued economic growth helped drive existing-home sales. Unsold inventory of existing homes in October represented a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.3 months in September but up from 3.6 months in October 2023. The median existing-home price in October was $407,200 ($406,700 in September) and 4.0% above the October 2023 price of $391,600. Sales of existing single-family homes increased 3.5% in October and 4.1% from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $412,200 in October, up from $411,400 in September and above the October 2023 estimate of $396,000.
New single-family home sales decreased 17.3% in October and were 9.4% lower than the October 2023 rate. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in October was $437,300 ($426,800 in September). The October average sales price was $545,800 ($509,900 in September). The inventory of new single-family homes for sale in October represented a supply of 9.5 months at the current sales pace, up from 7.7 months in September.
Manufacturing: Industrial production decreased 0.3% in October after declining 0.5% in the prior month. A strike at a major producer of civilian aircraft held down total growth by an estimated 0.2% in October, and the effects of two hurricanes subtracted an estimated 0.1%. Manufacturing output declined 0.5% in October. Mining output increased 0.3% and utilities rose 0.7%. For the 12 months ended in October, total industrial production moved down 0.3% from its year-earlier level. Over the same period, manufacturing decreased 0.3%, mining declined 1.5%, while utilities advanced 1.5%.
New orders for durable goods increased 0.2% in October, following two consecutive monthly decreases. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment, down three consecutive months, advanced 0.5%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in October increased 1.4%. New orders for defense capital goods in October declined 4.0%.
Imports and exports: U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in October following a 0.4% decrease in September. The October advance in import prices was the largest monthly increase since April 2024. Prices for import fuel increased 1.5% in October after declining 7.5% in September. Excluding fuel, import prices ticked up 0.2% in October for the second straight month. Import prices edged up 0.8% over the past year. Prices for U.S. exports increased 0.8% in October after declining 0.6% the previous month. The October advance was the largest monthly rise since August 2023. Higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports in October contributed to the monthly increase. Export prices declined 0.1% over the past year.
The international trade in goods deficit was $99.1 billion in October, down 8.8%, or $9.6 billion, from the September estimate. Exports of goods for October were $168.7 billion, $5.6 billion, or 3.2%, less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $267.8 billion, $15.2 billion, or 5.4%, less than September imports.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released November 5, was for September and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $84.4 billion, up 19.2% from the August deficit. September exports were $267.9 billion, 1.2% lower than August exports. September imports were $352.3 billion, 3.0% more than August imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $69.6 billion, or 11.8%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $784.7 billion, or 3.7%. Imports increased $154.4 billion, or 5.3%.
International markets: Eurozone inflation in November rose 2.3%, in line with expectations. Lackluster economic growth in Canada dampened hopes for continued monetary policy easing by the Bank of Canada. Third-quarter Canadian GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.0%, falling short of the central bank’s 1.5% projection. As a result, the yield on Canada’s 10-year Treasury bond fell to 3.17%, its lowest level in over a month, while the Canadian dollar neared its mid-2020 low. Elsewhere, China’s economy grew by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2024. In September, The People’s Bank of China introduced the biggest stimulus package for the economy since the pandemic, including significant cuts to interest and mortgage rates. The plans also included help for the struggling stock market and measures to encourage banks to lend more to individuals and businesses. For November, the STOXX Europe 600 Index dipped 0.1%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE rose 1.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 0.4%; while China’s Shanghai Composite Index increased 1.7%.
Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence rose in November to 111.7, up from 109.6 in October, according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased by 4.8 points to 140.9 in November. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked up to 92.3 in November, up from 91.9 in October.
Eye on the Month Ahead
The Federal Reserve meets in December for the final time this year. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other voting members seem to indicate that there is a slim chance that interest rates will be lowered in December. Recent data has shown relative strength in the economy, and the job market appears to be nearing full employment. However, inflationary pressures, while somewhat muted, continued to inch higher in October and November, which will heighten interest in the inflation indicators released in December.
The Markets (as of market close November 29, 2024)
Thanksgiving week proved to be a positive one for stocks. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed higher, led by the Dow and the Russell 2000. Financials, consumer staples, and industrials led the market sectors, with only energy and communication services declining. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell for the second consecutive week. Crude oil prices declined despite an apparent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The dollar lost about 1.7% for the week, while gold prices declined 2.0%.
The Dow reached a new high last Monday as stocks closed generally higher. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%) and the Global Dow (0.5%). The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each climbed 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.27% after falling 14.5 basis points. The dollar, which had been rallying, declined 0.6%, while gold prices snapped a five-day winning streak after losing 3.1%. Crude oil prices slid 3.1%, settling at $69.07 per barrel.
Both the S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.3%) reached record highs last Tuesday. The NASDAQ gained 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) and the Global Dow (-0.1%) declined. Investors wrestled with the potential economic effects of President-elect Trump’s trade tariffs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at 4.30%. Crude oil prices slid to $68.63 per barrel. Gold prices rose 0.6% and the dollar inched up 0.1%.
Stocks fell the day before Thanksgiving as each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the session in the red, with the exception of the Russell 2000, which ticked up 0.1%. The NASDAQ fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Dow declined 0.3%. The Global Dow was flat. Crude oil prices closed at $68.76 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.24%. The dollar declined 0.9%, while gold prices rose 0.6%. Investors saw the likelihood of another interest rate reduction in December diminish after the latest data showed inflation ticked up in October and over the last 12 months (see below), indicating that movement toward the Fed’s 2.0% target has stalled.
The week ended as it began with stocks closing higher. The S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.4%) reached record highs. The NASDAQ gained 0.8%, the Global Dow rose 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 edged up 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields lost 6.4 basis points to close at 4.17%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.1%, while gold prices increased 0.7%.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2023 Close
Prior Week
As of 11/29
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
37,689.54
44,296.51
44,910.65
1.39%
19.16%
NASDAQ
15,011.35
19,003.65
19,218.17
1.13%
28.02%
S&P 500
4,769.83
5,969.34
6,032.38
1.06%
26.47%
Russell 2000
2,027.07
2,406.67
2,434.73
1.17%
20.11%
Global Dow
4,355.28
4,971.05
5,016.35
0.91%
15.18%
fed. funds target rate
5.25%-5.50%
4.50%-4.75%
4.50%-4.75%
0 bps
-75 bps
10-year Treasuries
3.86%
4.41%
4.17%
-24 bps
31 bps
US Dollar-DXY
101.39
107.53
105.74
-1.66%
4.29%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.30
$71.25
$68.00
-4.56%
-4.63%
Gold-GC=F
$2,072.50
$2,711.70
$2,657.00
-2.02%
28.20%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The second estimate for the third-quarter gross domestic product revealed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, unchanged from the initial estimate. In the second quarter, GDP increased 3.0%. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, rose 3.5% in the third quarter. Nonresidential fixed investment advanced 3.8%, while residential fixed investment declined 5.0%. Exports rose 7.5% and imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, advanced 10.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index increased 1.5% and 2.1% excluding food and energy.
Personal income increased 0.6% in October, while disposable personal income, personal income less personal current taxes, increased 0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. The PCE price index increased 0.2% in October. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. Since October 2023, the PCE price index rose 2.3%. The PCE price index less food and energy increased 2.8% for the year.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 0.2% following two consecutive monthly decreases. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, advancing 0.5%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in October increased 1.4%, while new orders for defense capital goods in October decreased 4.0%.
The advance report on international trade in goods for October showed the deficit was $99.1 billion, down $9.6 billion, or 8.8%, from the September estimate. Exports of goods for October were $168.7 billion, $5.6 billion, or 3.2%, less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $267.8 billion, $15.2 billion, or 5.4% less than September imports.
Sales of new single-family homes dropped 17.3% in October and fell 9.4% over the last 12 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800. Inventory in October sat at a supply of 9.5 months.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.044 per gallon on November 25, $0.002 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.194 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 25, the East Coast price ticked up $0.008 to $3.011 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.016 to $2.866 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.006 to $2.635 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.089 to $2.828 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.009 to $3.884 per gallon.
For the week ended November 23, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 16 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 16 was 1,907,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 9 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Alaska (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Illinois (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), and New York (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 16 were in Utah (+538), Minnesota (+381), Missouri (+252), Idaho (+200), and Louisiana (+199), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,088), Georgia (-1,952), New Jersey (-1,423), Texas (-1,160), and Ohio (-1,125).
Eye on the Week Ahead
One of the most closely watched of all economic indicators is the employment situation report, which is released this week for November. October saw the labor force increase by a scant 12,000. However, Hurricane Milton may have impacted the surveys that support the employment data. It would not be surprising to see October’s figures increase as more data is made available. However, the consensus for November, at about 125,000, is well below the monthly average for the year.
What I'm Watching This Week 