Despite getting off to a good start, stocks wavered throughout much of last week, ultimately closing lower. Each of the benchmark indexes lost ground, with the S&P 500 finishing the week lower for the fifth time in the last six weeks after reaching record highs in mid-February. Several negative factors weighed on investors, including hotter-than-expected core consumer prices (see below) and a slowdown in consumer spending. Last Monday saw stocks rise as investors were encouraged by the prospect of the Trump administration selectively imposing tariffs, reducing the likelihood of a full-blown trade war. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ gained again last Tuesday, marking their third consecutive sessions of gains. A tech stock selloff, coupled with mounting tariff concerns, led to a sharp fall in stocks last Wednesday. Crude oil prices rose to $69.90 per barrel, the highest in nearly four weeks, as concerns over tightening global supply drove prices up. Stocks continued to trend lower last Thursday after President Trump announced new tariffs on foreign-made autos, raising concerns of a potential trade war and its broader impact on the global economy. The week ended with equities closing lower, dampened by growing concerns over rising inflation and trade wars. Among the market sectors, only consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and energy closed higher, with information technology dropping 2.1%. Bond yields ended the week where they began. Gold prices ended the week at a record high. The dollar index ended the week lower after reaching a three-week high earlier in the week.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 3/28
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
41,985.35
41,583.90
-0.96%
-2.26%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
17,784.05
17,322.99
-2.59%
-10.29%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,667.56
5,580.94
-1.53%
-5.11%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,056.98
2,023.27
-1.64%
-9.28%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,198.52
5,135.73
-1.21%
5.61%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.25%
4.25%
0 bps
-32 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
104.14
103.96
-0.17%
-4.13%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$68.29
$69.14
1.24%
-3.65%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,028.10
$3,116.50
2.92%
18.12%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the third and final estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, GDP increased 3.1%. The increase in GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Compared to the third quarter, the decrease in GDP was primarily attributable to downturns in investment and exports, while consumer spending increased from 3.7% in the third quarter to 4.0% in the fourth quarter. For 2024, GDP rose 2.8% from 2023.
According to the latest information from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income increased 0.8% in February. Disposable personal income (less personal income taxes) rose 0.9% last month. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.4%. The PCE price index, a preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, increased 0.3% in February. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4%. Over the last 12 months, the PCE price index increased 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index rose 2.8% over the past 12 months.
Sales of new single-family houses in February were 1.8% above the revised January rate and were 5.1% higher than the February 2024 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in February was $414,500. The average sales price was $487,100. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February represented a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up two consecutive months, increased 0.9%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The February increase followed a 3.3% January advance. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7% last month. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.8%. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase after rising 1.5%.
The international trade in goods deficit was $147.9 billion in February, down $7.7 billion, or 4.9%, from January. Exports of goods for February were $178.6 billion, $7.0 billion, or 4.1%, more than January exports. Imports of goods for February were $326.5 billion, $0.6 billion, or 0.2%, less than January imports.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.115 per gallon on March 24, $0.057 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.408 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 24, the East Coast price ticked up $0.012 to $2.961 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.126 to $3.020 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.111 to $2.740 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.045 to $3.043 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.006 to $4.055 per gallon.
For the week ended March 22, there were 224,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 15 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 15 was 1,856,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 8 were Rhode Island (2.9%), New Jersey (2.8%), California (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Minnesota (2.4%), Illinois (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), Montana (2.1%), District of Columbia (2.0%), Connecticut (1.9%), New York (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 15 were in Michigan (+2,842), Mississippi (+1,775), Texas (+1,458), Nebraska (+395), and Missouri (+206), while the largest decreases were in California (-3,625), Illinois (-1,365), Virginia (-895), Pennsylvania (-877), and New Jersey (-860).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The employment figures for March are out this week. February saw jobs increase by 151,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%.
Wall Street saw a weekly gain for the for the first time in four weeks. Fed forecasts of two more interest rate cuts this year (see below) helped renew investor confidence. Each of the benchmark indexes closed higher last week, led by the Dow, which gained over 1.0%. All 11 of the S&P market sectors advanced, led by financials, health care, industrials, and information technology. Bond values rose higher, dragging yields to their lowest levels in more than two weeks. Despite ticking lower at the end of the week, gold prices rose over 1.2%. Considered a safe-haven asset, gold prices have enjoyed 16 record highs this year, reaching an all-time peak of $3,057.21 per ounce on Thursday. Since January 2024, the price of gold has risen 45.0%, or about $1,000.00 per ounce.
Stocks rose higher last Monday for the second straight session. The Russell 2000 gained 1.2% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here. The Global Dow rose 1.1%, the Dow climbed 0.9%, the S&P 500 added 0.6%, and the NASDAQ advanced 0.3%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up to 4.30%. Crude oil prices gained 0.5% to settle at $67.51 per barrel. The dollar declined, while gold prices reached a record high after climbing to $3,008.70 per ounce.
A selloff in tech stocks dragged the markets lower last Tuesday. The NASDAQ fell 1.7%, and the S&P 500 declined 1.1%. The small caps of the Russell 2000 lost 0.9%, and the Dow dropped 0.6%. The Global Dow eked out a 0.2% gain. The crude oil price rally ended last Tuesday as prices fell 1.0% to $66.92 per barrel. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped to 4.28%. The dollar index fell 0.1%, while gold prices continued to surge, gaining 1.2% to reach a new record high.
Wall Street rebounded last Wednesday after the Federal Reserve projected two more rate cuts later this year. Tech shares reversed the prior day’s losses, driving the NASDAQ up 1.4%. The Russell 2000, an index driven, in part, by changing economic conditions, led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 1.6%. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Dow climbed 0.9%, and the Global Dow edged up 0.5%. Gold prices moved higher, reaching another record after gaining 0.5%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.25%. Crude oil prices rose to $67.25 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.3% against a basket of currencies.
Last Wednesday’s Fed-driven rally ended quickly on Thursday as investors reassessed the potential for rising inflation and an economic slowdown. The Russell 2000 lost 0.6%, followed by the Global Dow (-0.4%), the NASDAQ (-0.3%), and the S&P 500 (-0.2%). The Dow was essentially unchanged. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped to 4.23%. Crude oil prices advanced for the third session of the week, settling at about $68.30 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices each gained 0.4%.
Stocks closed mostly higher last Friday after President Trump suggested that he is willing to consider some flexibility on tariffs. The NASDAQ rose 0.5%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 each gained 0.1%. The Russell 2000 and the Global Dow each retreated 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Yields on 10-year Treasuries inched up to 4.25%. Crude oil prices rose 0.3%. The dollar index gained 0.3%, while gold prices fell 0.5%.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 3/21
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
41,488.19
41,985.35
1.20%
-1.31%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
17,754.09
17,784.05
0.17%
-7.91%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,638.94
5,667.56
0.51%
-3.64%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,044.10
2,056.98
0.63%
-7.77%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,156.74
5,198.52
0.81%
6.90%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.30%
4.25%
-5 bps
-32 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
103.70
104.14
0.42%
-3.97%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$67.18
$68.29
1.65%
-4.84%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$2,991.20
$3,028.10
1.23%
14.77%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
In a move that was expected, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at its current 4.25%-4.50%. In support of its decision, the Committee noted that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace, the unemployment rate stabilized at a low level, and labor market conditions remained solid. However, inflation remained somewhat elevated and uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. Moving forward, the Committee will take into consideration a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, and financial and international developments. As such, the FOMC would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2.0%. The latest projections from the Committee indicate two more interest rate cuts later this year.
Sales at the retail level fell short of expectations in February. Retail sales rose 0.2% last month and 3.1% since February 2024. Retail trade sales were up 0.5% from January 2025 and up 3.4% from last year. Food and beverage store sales were up 3.9% from last year, while nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 6.5% from February 2024.
The number of issued residential building permits declined 1.2% in February from the January estimate. The February total was 6.8% below the February 2024 rate. Single-family building permits dipped 0.2% in February. Housing starts rose 11.2% last month but were 2.9% below the prior year’s estimate. Single-family housing starts in February were 11.4% above the January figure. Housing completions in February were 4.0% below the January estimate and 6.2% under the February 2024 rate. Single-family housing completions in February were 7.1% above the January rate.
Sales of existing homes rose 4.2% in February. Year over year, existing-home sales slid 1.2%. The median existing-home price in February was $398,400, 1.3% above the January price ($393,400) and up 3.8% from one year ago ($383,800). Unsold inventory sat at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, identical to January and up from 3.0 months in February 2024. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 5.7% in February but 0.3% below the estimate from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $402,500 in February ($398,100 in January) well above the February 2024 price of $388,000. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.65% as of March 13. That’s up from 6.63% one week ago but down from 6.74% one year ago.
Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7% in February after moving up 0.3% in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9%, boosted by a jump of 8.5% for motor vehicles and parts. The output of manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4%. Mining gained 2.8%, while utilities decreased 2.5%. Total IP in February was 1.4% above its year-earlier level.
U.S. import prices increased 0.4% in February following a 0.4% advance in January. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices in February contributed to the overall increase in import prices. Prices for U.S. imports rose 2.0% over the past year. U.S. export prices rose 0.1% in February following a 1.3% advance the previous month. Higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports each contributed to the increase in February. U.S. export prices have not declined on a one-month basis since September 2024. Prices for U.S. exports increased 2.1% over the past year.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.058 per gallon on March 17, $0.011 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.395 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 17, the East Coast price ticked up $0.004 to $2.949 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.005 to $2.894 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.051 to $2.629 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.038 to $2.998 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.038 to $4.061 per gallon.
For the week ended March 15, there were 223,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 8 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 8 was 1,892,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 1 were Rhode Island (3.0%), New Jersey (2.9%), Minnesota (2.5%), California (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Illinois (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), Montana (2.2%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), Connecticut (1.9%), District of Columbia (1.9%), and New York (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 8 were in California (+4,280), Texas (+1,470), Virginia (+1,155), Michigan (+910), and Arizona (+457), while the largest decreases were in New York (-15,113), Wisconsin (-1,766), Missouri (-862), Kentucky (-825), and Ohio (-666).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The final estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter is available this week. The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, according to the second estimate. The latest Personal Income and Outlays report for February is also out this week. January data showed that consumer spending, a main driver of the economy, declined 0.2%, while consumer prices rose 0.3%.
Wall Street saw momentum ebb and flow throughout last week, with stocks ultimately closing lower for the fourth week in a row. Investors were influenced by growing uncertainty over inflation and tariffs. Despite a strong close to the week, the overall decline in equities has been notable. In less than a month, the benchmark indexes moved into correction territory at a rapid pace. Bond yields rose from 4.21% at the start of the week to 4.30% last Friday. Crude oil prices ticked higher by week’s end as geopolitical uncertainty, particularly over the Ukraine war, continued to weigh on supply and demand concerns.
The stock market sell-off ramped up last Monday as investors’ concerns intensified over tariffs and a possible recession. Megacaps, in particular, and tech shares were hit hardest. The NASDAQ fell 4.0%, marking its worst day since 2022. The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 each lost 2.7%. The Dow declined 2.1%, while the Global Dow dropped 1.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.21% — the lowest rate since last December. Demand concerns dragged crude oil prices lower, falling to $65.98 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.7%.
Last Tuesday saw stocks extend losses amid trade policy uncertainty. Among the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Russell 2000 was able to eke out a minimal (0.2%) gain. The Global Dow fell 1.2%, and the Dow lost 1.1%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, and the NASDAQ slipped 0.2%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.28%. Crude oil prices climbed to $66.53 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.6%, while gold prices gained 0.9%.
Stocks rose moderately higher last Wednesday as inflation concerns eased following the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (see below). Rebounding tech shares helped drive the market overall, with the NASDAQ (1.2%) leading the benchmark indexes listed here. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Global Dow added 0.3%, the Russell 2000 ticked up 0.2%, while the Dow fell 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose to 4.31%. Crude oil prices advanced for the second straight day, rising to $67.68 per barrel. The dollar index gained 0.3%, and gold prices rose 0.7%.
Wall Street couldn’t maintain the prior day’s momentum last Thursday as more tariff threats shook investor confidence. The NASDAQ gave back all of Wednesday’s gains after falling 2.0%. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.6%, the S&P 500 declined 1.4%, the Dow dipped 1.3%, and the Global Dow lost 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.27%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.7% to $66.56 per barrel. The dollar index rose 0.3%, while gold prices jumped 1.7%.
Stocks rallied last Friday, putting an end to a tough week as concerns over a U.S. government shutdown eased. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed higher, led by the NASDAQ (2.6%), followed by the Russell 2000 (2.5%), the S&P 500 (2.1%), the Dow (1.7%), and the Global Dow (1.5%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries advanced, closing the session at 4.30%. Crude oil prices rose 0.9%. The dollar index slipped 0.1%. Gold prices increased 0.4%.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 3/14
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
42,801.72
41,488.19
-3.07%
-2.48%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
18,196.22
17,754.09
-2.43%
-8.06%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,770.20
5,638.94
-2.27%
-4.13%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,075.48
2,044.10
-1.51%
-8.34%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,242.21
5,156.74
-1.63%
6.04%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.31%
4.30%
-1 bps
-27 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
103.83
103.70
-0.13%
-4.37%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$67.07
$67.18
0.16%
-6.38%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$2,919.20
$2,991.20
2.47%
13.37%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
Consumer prices growth slowed in February. According to the latest information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index ticked up 0.2% in February after climbing 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months ended in February, the CPI rose 2.8% following a 3.0% increase for the year ended in January. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% in February, following a 0.4% increase in January. The CPI less food and energy index rose 3.1% over the last 12 months. Energy prices decreased 0.2% for the 12 months ended February. Food prices increased 2.6% over the last year. Gasoline prices declined 1.0% in February and 3.1% since February 2024.
The Producer Price Index was unchanged in February after advancing 0.6% in January. For the 12 months ended in February, the PPI rose 3.2%. In February, a 0.3% increase in prices for goods offset a 0.2% decline in prices for services. The PPI less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2% in February after rising 0.3% in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.3%.
The number of job openings rose by 232,000 to 7.7 million in January, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. The number of hires in January, at 5.4 million, changed little from the prior month. The number of total separations, which include quits, layoffs, and discharges, rose by about 170,000 to 5.3 million in January. In 2024, the annual average job openings level was 7.8 million, a decrease of 1.5 million from 2023. In 2024, the annual hires level was 65.3 million, a decrease of 5.1 million from 2023. Annual total separations decreased by 4.6 million in 2024 to 63.2 million.
The government deficit for February was $307 billion, well above the January deficit of $129 billion and slightly over the February 2024 deficit of $296 billion. Through the first five months of the fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,147 trillion, over 38% higher than the deficit over the same period last fiscal year. So far this year, government receipts, at $1,893 trillion, are marginally above the figure from last fiscal year. Government expenditures, totaling $3,039 trillion, are over 13% higher than expenditures over the same period last year.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.069 per gallon on March 10, $0.009 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.307 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 10, the East Coast price fell $0.032 to $2.945 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.017 to $2.899 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.044 to $2.680 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.004 to $2.960 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.042 to $4.099 per gallon.
For the week ended March 8, there were 220,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 1 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 1 was 1,870,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s level. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 22 were Rhode Island (3.4%), New Jersey (2.9%), Massachusetts (2.6%), Minnesota (2.6%), California (2.4%), Illinois (2.4%), Montana (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), Connecticut (2.1%), and New York (2.1%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 1 were in New York (+15,513), Texas (+1,774), Kentucky (+891), Arkansas (+603), and New Hampshire (+573), while the largest decreases were in Massachusetts (-3,885), Rhode Island (-1,984), Michigan (-1,933), Illinois (-1,051), and Iowa (-982).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. While it is unlikely that the Committee will adjust the federal funds rate at this time, investors will pay particular attention to the Committee’s assessment of the economy and whether it gives any indication of the timing of future rate changes.
Stocks suffered through their worst week since September, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here falling more than 2.3% with the exception of the Global Dow, which gained less than 1.0%. Investors faced trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a slightly weaker-than-expected jobs report. Each of the market sectors declined last week, with the exception of health care. Information technology dropped more than 7.4%. Last Friday, reassurance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the economy remained solid helped quell some of the angst among investors, which helped push bond yields higher at week’s end. Crude oil prices rallied on Friday but not enough to prevent a weekly decline of over 4.0%.
The stock market began last week on a sour note following President Trump’s affirmation that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect early last week. Stocks saw a major drop in value as investors feared the new tariffs would negatively impact the economy. The S&P 500 (-1.8%) had its worst day since December. The NASDAQ fell 2.6%, and the Dow lost 1.5%. The small caps of the Russell 2000 plunged 2.8%. The Global Dow rose 0.2%. Tech and energy shares led the sell-off. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped 5.1 basis points to 4.18% as investors moved toward government bonds. Crude oil prices fell 2.1% to settle at $68.36 per barrel, marking the lowest price this year. The dollar index dipped 1.0%, while gold prices rose nearly 2.0%.
Stocks continued to tumble lower last Tuesday as investors reacted to escalating trade tensions. The Global Dow and the Dow each fell 1.6%, followed by the S&P 500 (-1.2%), the Russell 2000 (-1.1%), and the NASDAQ (-0.4%). Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.20%. Crude oil prices declined to $68.28 per barrel. The dollar index lost 1.0% against a basket of world currencies, while gold prices rose 0.9%.
Investors moved back to equities last Wednesday after President Trump announced a one-month exemption on auto tariffs for Mexico and Canada. The Global Dow reversed the prior day’s downturn, climbing 1.8%, followed by the NASDAQ, which rose 1.5%. The Dow and the S&P 500 each advanced 1.1%, while the Russell 2000 climbed 1.0%. Ten-year Treasury yields added 5.5 basis points to reach 4.26%. Crude oil prices dropped 2.7% to $66.45 per barrel. The dollar fell 1.3%, while gold prices ticked up 0.3%.
Wall Street couldn’t maintain momentum from the previous day as stocks declined. Investors appeared anxious as uncertainty over tariffs prevailed. Tech stocks led the downturn. The NASDAQ lost 2.6% on the day and more than 10.0% from its December high, plunging that index into correction territory. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, the Russell 2000 declined 1.6%, and the Dow fell 1.0%. The Global Dow eked out a 0.1% gain. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up to 4.28%. Crude oil prices stemmed losses, settling at about $66.28 per barrel. The dollar dipped 0.1%, and gold prices fell 0.2%.
Stocks rebounded last Friday to end a volatile week of trading. The NASDAQ led the benchmark indexes listed here after climbing 0.7%. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow gained 0.5%, the Russell 2000 added 0.4%, and the Global Dow inched up 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields gained 3.1 basis points to close at 4.31%. Crude oil prices advanced 1.0%, while both the dollar and gold prices fell.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 3/7
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
43,840.91
42,801.72
-2.37%
0.61%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
18,847.27
18,196.22
-3.45%
-5.77%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,954.50
5,770.20
-3.10%
-1.89%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,163.06
2,075.48
-4.05%
-6.94%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,215.57
5,242.21
0.51%
7.80%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.20%
4.31%
11 bps
-26 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
107.56
103.83
-3.47%
-4.25%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$69.95
$67.07
-4.12%
-6.54%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$2,867.30
$2,919.20
1.81%
10.64%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
Employment rose by 151,000 in February, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. February’s job gains were below the average over the past 12 months (168,000). In February, employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined. The change in employment for December was revised up by 16,000, while the change for January was revised down by 18,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined was 2,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.1% last month, while the number of unemployed rose by 203,000 to 7.1 million. The labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio each declined 0.2 percentage point to 62.4% and 59.9%, respectively. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, changed little in February. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.9% of all unemployed people. In February, average hourly earnings rose by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $35.93. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%. In February, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.1 hours.
According to the latest S&P Global survey of purchasing managers, the manufacturing sector accelerated in February, which saw notable increases in production and new orders. It is likely that the rise in new orders was partially driven by advanced purchases ahead of anticipated price increases and supply disruptions due to tariff impositions. There was also evidence that some suppliers were already adjusting their prices upwards in direct response to potential tariffs, with input cost inflation increasing to its highest level since November 2022. Output charges also rose to a two-year high in February.
The services sector continued to expand in February but at a slower pace than in prior months. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index recorded 51.0 in February, marking the tenth straight month of expansion but at the slowest rate of growth since November 2023. Survey respondents expressed concern over the impact of government trade policies and federal budget cuts. Job cuts were noted in the services sector for the first time in three months.
The latest report on the international trade in goods and services deficit, released March 6, is for January and revealed that the trade deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion, or 34.0%, from December. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion, or 1.2%, more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion, or 10.0%, more than December imports. For the 12 months ended in January, the goods and services deficit increased $64.5 billion, or 96.5%, from January 2024. Exports increased $10.6 billion, or 4.1%. Imports increased $75.2 billion, or 23.1%.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.078 per gallon on March 3, $0.047 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.272 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 3, the East Coast price fell $0.034 to $2.977 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.056 to $2.882 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.068 to $2.636 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.055 to $2.964 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.047 to $4.141 per gallon.
For the week ended March 1, there were 221,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 22 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 22 was 1,897,000, an increase of 42,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 15 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), Minnesota (2.6%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Montana (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), California (2.3%), Illinois (2.3%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), Connecticut (1.9%), Michigan (1.9%), and New York (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 22 were in Massachusetts (+3,808), Rhode Island (+2,081), Illinois (+1,539), Wisconsin (+1,016), and Missouri (+973), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-3,074), California (-2,657), Tennessee (-2,550), Washington (-2,000), and Texas (-1,177).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The latest reports on inflation are available this week with the releases of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. The CPI was 3.0% for the year ended in January, while the PPI was up 3.5% from the year before.
The Markets (as of market close February 28, 2025)
The markets experienced a volatile week, ultimately closing mostly lower. Among the indexes listed here, only the Dow managed to eke out a weekly gain. The week ended with stocks posting gains, despite a tense meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. Investors wrestled with the uncertain economic impact of President Trump’s proposed tariffs, inflationary pressures that refuse to subside, and geopolitical turmoil. Treasury yields declined as bond prices rose. Crude oil prices dipped lower. The dollar index rose, while gold prices declined.
Wall Street continued to lag last Monday following the prior week’s sharp losses. The NASDAQ lost 1.2%, the Russell 2000 fell 0.8%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% as weakness in tech shares dragged stocks lower. The Global Dow slipped 0.1%, while the Dow eked out a 0.1% gain. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.40%, the lowest level since mid-December. Crude oil prices edged up 0.6% to $70.83 per barrel. The dollar index was virtually unchanged, while gold prices rose 0.4%.
Stocks slid mostly lower last Tuesday as investors looked ahead to the latest earnings report from a major AI company. For the second straight day, tech shares tumbled, with the NASDAQ falling 1.4%. The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to four days after declining 0.5%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.4%. The Dow gained 0.4%, while the Global Dow was unchanged. Yields on 10-year Treasuries settled at 4.29% after sliding 9.5 basis points. Crude oil prices ended the day at $69.12 per barrel. The dollar dipped 0.1%, while gold prices rose 0.6%.
The market returns were mixed last Wednesday. The S&P 500 barely ended its losing streak. The NASDAQ gained 0.3%, while the Global Dow and the Russell 2000 added 0.2%. The Dow fell 0.4%. Technology, which had been lagging, drove market gains. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.24%. Crude oil prices dropped to $68.77 per barrel. The dollar index gained 0.2%, while gold prices rose 0.4%.
Stocks slid sharply last Thursday, dragged lower by a selloff in tech shares. The NASDAQ fell 2.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, the Russell 2000 lost 1.3%, the Global Dow declined 0.8%, and the Dow slid 0.5%. While the earnings report from a major AI company beat analysts’ expectations, potential tariffs on chips worried investors. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked up to 4.28%. Crude oil prices rose to $70.16 per barrel. The dollar index gained 0.8%, while gold prices fell 1.6%.
The stock market ended last week on a high note, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each advanced 1.6%. The Dow gained 1.4%. The Russell 2000 added 1.0%, and the Global Dow ticked up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the session down 5.2 basis points. Crude oil prices fell about 0.4%. The dollar index gained 0.3%, while gold prices fell 1.1%.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 2/28
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
43,428.02
43,840.91
0.95%
3.05%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
19,524.01
18,847.27
-3.47%
-2.40%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,013.33
5,954.50
-0.98%
1.24%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,203.43
2,163.06
-1.83%
-3.01%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,236.65
5,215.57
-0.40%
7.25%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.42%
4.20%
-22 bps
-37 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
106.64
107.56
0.86%
-0.81%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$70.27
$69.95
-0.46%
-2.52%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$2,949.80
$2,867.30
-2.80%
8.67%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
According to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. GDP increased 3.1% in the third quarter. Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, turned down. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter, 0.1 percentage point above the increase in the third quarter. For 2024, the PCE price index increased 2.5%. Personal consumption expenditures rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter after advancing 3.7% in the third quarter.
Both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income advanced 0.9% in January, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending, fell 0.2% in January. The PCE price index for January increased 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for January increased 2.5%, while the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.6%.
The international trade in goods deficit was $153.3 billion in January, up $31.2 billion, or 25.6%, from December. Exports of goods for January were $172.2 billion, $3.3 billion, or 2.0%, more than December exports. Imports of goods for January were $325.4 billion, $34.6 billion, or 11.9%, more than December imports.
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 3.1% in January after decreasing in each of the previous two months. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, climbing 9.8%.
Sales of new single-family homes in January were 10.5% below the prior month’s total and 1.1% below the January 2024 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2025 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000. The inventory of new houses for sale in January represented a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales pace.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.125 per gallon on February 24, $0.023 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.124 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 24, the East Coast price fell $0.013 to $3.011 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.044 to $2.938 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.036 to $2.704 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.027 to $3.019 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.001 to $4.188 per gallon.
For the week ended February 22, there were 242,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 15 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 15 was 1,862,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 2,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 8 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), Minnesota (2.5%), Washington (2.5%), California (2.4%), Illinois (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Montana (2.4%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), Connecticut (1.9%), Michigan (1.9%), and New York (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 15 were in Kentucky (+3,012), Tennessee (+2,766), Washington (+735), Michigan (+452), and Minnesota (+83), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,530), Pennsylvania (-1,110), Florida (-981), New Jersey (-903), and New York (-698).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The jobs data for February is available this week. January saw employment increase by 143,000, while average hourly earnings ticked up 0.5% for the month and 4.1% over the last 12 months.
The Markets (as of market close February 28, 2025)
Wall Street saw stocks tumble mostly lower in February after posting strong returns in January. Investors worried about the economic impact of tariffs, inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions. Consumer staples and real estate stocks moved higher last month, while consumer discretionary, industrials, information technology, communication services, and energy underperformed.
The latest data showed inflation remained elevated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index has risen from a low of 2.1% for the 12 months ended in September to 2.5% for the same period ended in January, which supports the Federal Open Market Committee’s assessment that inflation “remains somewhat elevated.” Another potential inflationary risk is the impact of looming tariffs threatened by the White House, which gives the Fed ample justification to hold interest rates steady over the next few months.
Growth of the U.S. economy continued at a modest pace. The gross domestic product (GDP) rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter following a 3.1% increase in the third quarter (see below). For 2024, GDP rose 2.8%, 0.1 percentage point less than the 2023 rate. In the fourth quarter, personal consumption expenditures, the largest contributor in the calculation of GDP, rose 4.2% in January. Spending rose 12.1% on durable goods, possibly reflecting consumers’ concerns about future prices and availability of big-ticket imports such as motor vehicles. Spending on nondurables increased 3.0%, while consumer spending on services advanced 3.3%. For 2024, consumer spending rose 2.8%.
Job growth rose by 143,000 in January after averaging a monthly gain of 186,000 in 2024. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.0%. Wages rose 4.1% over the past 12 months. The number of job openings fell by 556,000 in December (latest information available) to 7.6 million (8.1 million jobs in November), which was below expectations. Job openings were down 548,000 in the private sector and 9,000 in government. However, this data does not reflect the layoffs and cuts sanctioned by the Trump administration. The latest unemployment data showed total claims paid at the end of January increased from a year earlier (see below).
According to FactSet, the S&P 500 reported earnings growth of 17.8% in the fourth quarter, the highest growth since the fourth quarter of 2021. However, during earnings conference calls, 221 of the S&P 500 companies mentioned “tariffs.” The financial sector reported the highest fourth-quarter earnings growth at 56.9%. Of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, 77.0% exceeded earnings per share above expectations, equal to the five-year average. However, 72 S&P 500 companies reported a decline in earnings per share.
The real estate sector saw residential sales decline in January. Mortgage rates decreased somewhat but remained elevated. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.76% as of February 27. That’s down from 6.95% one month ago and lower than 6.94% a year ago.
Industrial production expanded for the third consecutive month in January (see below), although manufacturing output slid marginally. Last month saw mining decrease, while utilities increased. Over the last 12 months, industrial production, manufacturing, mining, and utilities increased. Purchasing managers reported manufacturing expanded in January as new orders and output increased. The services sector saw growth continue in January but at a slightly slower pace than in December.
Ten-year Treasury yields closed the month falling to the lowest rate in over two months due to concerns that tariffs and government spending cuts may hurt the economy. The two-year note closed February at 4.00%, down roughly 22.0 basis points from a month earlier. The dollar index dipped lower from a month earlier. Gold prices rose in February, despite trending lower during the latter part of the month. Crude oil prices settled at about $70.00 per barrel, marking the first monthly decline since November 2024. The retail price of regular gasoline was $3.125 per gallon on February 24, $0.022 above the price a month earlier but $0.124 lower than the price a year ago.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Month
As of 2/28
Monthly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,544.66
43,840.91
-1.58%
3.05%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
19,627.44
18,847.27
-3.97%
-2.40%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,040.53
5,954.50
-1.42%
1.24%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,287.69
2,163.06
-5.45%
-3.01%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,094.27
5,215.57
2.38%
7.25%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.56%
4.20%
-36 bps
-37 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
108.49
107.56
-0.86%
-1.66%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$73.61
$69.95
-4.97%
-2.52%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$2,833.20
$2,867.30
1.20%
8.69%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.
Latest Economic Reports
Employment: Job growth was slightly below expectations in January, with the addition of 143,000 new jobs after an upward revision of 100,000 new jobs in the prior two months. In January, the unemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage point to 4.0%. The number of unemployed persons changed little at 6.8 million in January. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was 1.4 million, a decline of about 100,000 from the December figure. These individuals accounted for 21.1% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in January was 62.6%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The employment-population ratio increased 0.1 percentage point to 60.1% in January. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.17, or 0.5%, to $35.87 in January. Since January 2024, average hourly earnings rose by 4.1% (3.9% for the 12 months ended in December 2024). The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours in January.
There were 242,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 22, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,862,000. A year ago, there were 213,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,805,000.
FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee did not meet in February after maintaining the federal funds rate at the current 4.25%-4.50% following its meeting in January. The Committee next meets during the second week of March.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, accelerated at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter following an increase of 3.1% in the third quarter. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in 2024, compared with an annual increase of 2.9% in 2023. Consumer spending, as measured by the PCE index, rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter following a 3.7% rise in the third quarter. Spending on services rose 3.3% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 2.8% increase in the third quarter. Consumer spending on goods increased 6.1% in the fourth quarter (5.6% in the third quarter). Fixed investment declined 1.4% in the fourth quarter after increasing 2.1% in the third quarter. Nonresidential (business) fixed investment declined 3.2% in the fourth quarter after climbing 4.0% in the previous quarter. Residential fixed investment rose 5.4% in the fourth quarter following a 4.3% decrease in the third quarter. Exports fell 0.5% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 9.6% increase in the previous quarter. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, also decreased 1.2% in the fourth quarter after rising 10.7% in the third quarter. Consumer prices increased 2.4% in the fourth quarter (1.5% in the third quarter). Excluding food and energy, consumer prices advanced 2.7% in the fourth quarter (2.2% in the third quarter). The increase in GDP in 2024 reflected increases in consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports, while imports increased. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.4% in 2024, compared with an increase of 3.3% in 2023. The PCE price index increased 2.5% in 2024, compared with an increase of 3.8% in 2023. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8% last year, compared with a 2023 increase of 4.1%.
January saw the federal budget deficit come in at $129.0 billion, $42.0 billion above the December monthly deficit and $106.0 billion above the January 2024 deficit. The deficit for the first four months of fiscal year 2025, at $840.0 billion, is roughly $300.0 billion higher than the first four months of the previous fiscal year. So far in fiscal year 2025, government receipts totaled $1,596.0 trillion, while government outlays totaled $2,436.0 trillion. Through the first four months of fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $823.0 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $502.0 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.9% in January after both increased 0.4% in December. Consumer spending decreased 0.2% in January after increasing 0.8% the previous month. Consumers spent 29.0% on housing and utilities in January, while spending on motor vehicles and parts fell 41.1%. Consumer prices inched up 0.3% in January, the same increase as in December. Excluding food and energy (core prices), prices rose 0.3% in January. Consumer prices rose 2.5% since January 2024, while core prices increased 2.6%. Over the last 12 months, prices for food rose 1.6%, while energy prices increased 1.0%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in January after ticking up 0.4% in December. Over the 12 months ended in January, the CPI rose 3.0%, 0.1 percentage point above the rate for the 12 months ended in December. Core prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% in January and 3.3% since January 2024. Prices for shelter rose 0.4% in January, accounting for nearly 30.0% of the monthly increase. Energy prices rose 1.1% in January, as gasoline prices increased 1.8%. Prices for food also increased in January, rising 0.4%. Over the last 12 months, food prices rose 2.5%, energy prices increased 1.0%, prices for new vehicles fell 0.3%, while prices for shelter advanced 4.4%.
Prices that producers received for goods and services (wholesale prices) advanced 0.4% in January following a 0.5% increase in December. Producer prices increased 3.5% for the 12 months ended in January, unchanged from the revised estimate for the 12-month period ended in December. The January increase in producer prices was broad-based, with prices for goods moving up 0.6%, while prices for services increased 0.3%. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.3% in January following a 0.4% increase in December. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.4% since January 2024 after advancing 3.5% for the 12 months ended in December.
Housing: Sales of existing homes decreased 4.9% in January but were up 2.0% from January 2024. The median existing-home price was $396,900 in January, down from the December price of $403,700 but 4.8% higher than the January 2024 estimate of $378,600. Unsold inventory of existing homes represented a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from December (3.2 months) and above the 3.0-month supply in January 2024. Sales of existing single-family homes decreased 5.2% in January but were 2.2% higher than the estimate from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $402,000 in January, down from the December figure of $408,500 but above the January 2024 estimate of $382,900.
New single-family home sales fell 10.5% in January and were 1.1% below the January 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in January was $446,300 ($415,000 in December) and higher than the January 2024 estimate of $430,400. The January average sales price was $510,000 ($509,700 in December) but below the January 2024 average sales price of $527,800. The inventory of new single-family homes for sale in January represented a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales pace, up from December’s 8.0-month supply.
Manufacturing: Industrial production increased 0.5% in January following a 1.0% advance in December. Manufacturing output slid 0.1% in January after gaining 0.5% in December. Mining decreased 1.2%, while utilities advanced 7.2%. Over the 12 months ended in January, total industrial production was 2.0% above its year-earlier reading. Since January 2024, manufacturing increased 1.0%, utilities rose 6.9%, while mining increased 3.4%.
New orders for durable goods increased 3.1% in January after declining 1.8% in the prior month. For the 12 months ended in January, durable goods orders advanced 4.3%. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged in January from the prior month. Excluding defense, new orders rose 3.5%. Transportation equipment increased 9.8% in January following two consecutive monthly decreases.
Imports and exports: Import prices rose for the fourth straight month after advancing 0.3% in January, the largest monthly increase since April 2024. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices in January contributed to the overall increase in import prices. Import fuel prices advanced 3.2% in January, also the largest monthly advance since April 2024. Import fuel prices rose 2.4% over the past 12 months. Prices for nonfuel imports ticked up 0.1% in January and advanced 1.8% over the last 12 months. Prices for exports rose 1.3% in January, the largest monthly gain since May 2022. Higher nonagricultural export prices in January more than offset lower agricultural export prices. Export prices rose 2.7% over the past year, the largest 12-month advance since the 12-month period ended December 2022.
The international trade in goods deficit was $153.3 billion in January, up $31.2 billion, or 25.6%, from December. Exports of goods were $172.2 billion in January, $3.3 billion, or 2.0%, over December exports. Imports of goods were $325.4 billion in January, $34.6 billion, or 11.9%, more than December imports. Over the 12 months ended in January, the goods deficit grew 69.8%. Exports rose 1.8%, while imports increased 25.5%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released February 5, was for December and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $98.4 billion, an increase of $19.5 billion, or 24.7%, from the November deficit. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion, or 3.5%, more than November imports. December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion, or 2.6%, less than November imports. For 2024, the goods and services deficit increased $133.5 billion, or 17.0%, from 2023. Exports increased $119.8 billion, or 3.9%. Imports increased $253.3 billion, or 6.6%.
International markets: In Germany, consumer prices rose 2.3% in February, unchanged from the prior month and in line with expectations. A sharp increase in energy costs helped propel the Eurozone inflation rate to 2.5% in January, the highest it’s been since July 2024. Canada’s annual inflation rate inched up 0.1 percentage point to 1.9% in January but remained below the Bank of Canada’s target rate of 2.0% for the sixth straight month. Many of President Trump’s tariffs are proposed as reciprocal in nature, aimed at countries that impose value-added taxes (VAT) on imports. For example, Germany’s VAT is 19.0%, France’s is 20.0%, Japan imposes a 10.0% VAT, and China has a VAT of 13.0%. At this point, the U.S. does not have a VAT system. In February, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 3.0%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE advanced 1.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 6.1%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index increased 2.2%.
Consumer confidence: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in February to 98.3, down 7.0 points from the January reading. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, dropped 3.4 points to 136.5 in February. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 9.3 points to 72.9 in February. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Eye on the Month Ahead
Looking ahead to March, investors will pay particular attention to inflation data as February brought increased concerns that price pressures may be on the rise again.
What I'm Watching This Week 