Wall Street enjoyed a solid week of gains as investors were encouraged by signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here moved higher, driven by gains in AI megacaps and some blue-chip stocks. First-quarter earnings season is in full swing. Of the 180 S&P 500 companies reporting so far, 73% beat expectations. Ten of the 11 market sectors posted weekly advances, with the exception of consumer staple companies, which dipped about 0.73%. Last week didn’t begin on a favorable note, as stocks closed sharply lower on Monday after President Trump continued his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The dollar index fell to 98.2 on Monday, the lowest rate since February 2022. However, as trade tensions eased, stocks posted gains over the next four days. Long-term bond yields fell for the second straight week. Persistent oversupply concerns and uncertainty over the U.S.-China trade talks pulled crude oil prices lower.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 4/25
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
39,142.23
40,113.50
2.48%
-5.71%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
16,286.45
17,382.94
6.73%
-9.98%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,282.70
5,525.21
4.59%
-6.06%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
1,880.62
1,957.62
4.09%
-12.22%
Global Dow
4,863.01
4,874.44
5,038.05
3.36%
3.60%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.33%
4.26%
-7 bps
-31 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
99.44
99.62
0.18%
-8.13%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$64.39
$63.23
-1.80%
-11.89%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,340.70
$3,318.10
-0.68%
25.76%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
New orders for durable goods rose for the third straight month in March after increasing 9.2%. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 10.4%. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the overall increase in new orders after climbing 27.0%.
Sales of new single-family houses in March were 7.4% above the February rate and 6.0% above the March 2024 pace. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 0.6% above the February estimate and 7.9% above the March 2024 rate. This represents an inventory of 8.3 months at the current sales pace. The March inventory estimate was 6.7% below the February figure but 1.2% above the March 2024 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in March was $403,600. This was 1.9% below the February price of $411,500 and 7.5% below the March 2024 price of $436,400. The average sales price of new houses sold in March 2025 was $497,700. This was 1.0% above the February 2025 price of $492,700 but 4.7% below the March 2024 price of $522,500.
Existing-home sales fell 5.9% in March and 2.4% from a year ago. Inventory of unsold homes represented a supply of 4.0 months at the current sales pace. The median existing-home price in March was $403,700, up 2.7% from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes also tumbled in March, dropping 6.4%. The median existing single-family home price was $408,000 in March, up 2.9% from March 2024.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.141 per gallon on April 21, $0.027 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.527 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of April 21, the East Coast price ticked down $0.033 to $2.983 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.004 to $3.012 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.063 to $2.684 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.032 to $3.130 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.047 to $4.220 per gallon.
For the week ended April 19, there were 222,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 12 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 12 was 1,841,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 5 were New Jersey (2.5%), California (2.3%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Minnesota (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), Illinois (2.0%), Massachusetts (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), New York (1.8%), Oregon (1.7%), and Puerto Rico (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 12 were in Kentucky (+4,292), Missouri (+1,974), Pennsylvania (+1,858), Michigan (+1,012), and Connecticut (+955), while the largest decreases were in California (-3,296), Tennessee (-2,622), Oregon (-1,869), Illinois (-1,320), and Wisconsin (-1,313).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The last week of April brings with it the release of several potentially market-moving reports. The initial report on gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2025 is released. The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The March report on personal income and expenditures is out midweek. February saw personal income grow 0.8% and consumer spending rose 0.4%, while prices for goods and services climbed 0.3%. Finally, the April jobs report is available at the end of the week. Employment rose by 228,000 in March, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
Stocks ended an abbreviated week of trading with mixed results as the U.S. markets closed a day early in observance of Good Friday. Throughout the week, investors weighed trade talks, interest rate uncertainty, and concerns of a global economic retreat. Big tech shares began the week on a positive note as investors hoped a temporary tariff exemption for electronics imports would remain in force. However, the optimism from earlier in the week proved short-lived as tech shares declined, pulled lower by some of the megacaps. By the close of trading, only the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow posted gains among the benchmark indexes listed here. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped lower as three straight days of declines more than offset last Thursday’s gains. Crude oil prices rose nearly 5.0% as sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports stoked fears of increasing global supply constraints.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 4/17
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
40,212.71
39,142.23
-2.66%
-8.00%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
16,724.46
16,286.45
-2.62%
-15.66%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,363.36
5,282.70
-1.50%
-10.18%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
1,860.20
1,880.62
1.10%
-15.67%
Global Dow
4,863.01
4,780.86
4,874.44
1.96%
0.24%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.49%
4.33%
-16 bps
-24 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
99.87
99.44
-0.43%
-8.30%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$61.56
$64.39
4.60%
-10.27%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,251.50
$3,340.70
2.74%
26.61%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
U.S. import prices decreased 0.1% in March following a 0.2% increase in February. The decline in March import prices was the first since September 2024 and was largely attributable to a 2.3% decrease in import fuel prices. Since March 2024, import prices increased 0.9%. Export prices were unchanged in March after rising 0.5% in the previous month. U.S. export prices have not declined on a one-month basis since September 2024. Export prices advanced 2.4% from March 2024 to March 2025.
Retail sales rose 1.4% in March after advancing 0.2% in February. From March 2024, retail sales increased 4.6%. Retail trade sales also increased 1.4% from February 2025, and 4.6% from last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were up 8.8% from last year, while nonstore (online) retail sales were up 4.8% from March 2024.
According to the Federal Reserve’s report, industrial production decreased 0.3% in March but rose at an annual rate of 5.5% in the first quarter of 2025. The March decline in industrial production was driven by a 5.8% drop in utilities, as temperatures were warmer than is typical for the month. On the other hand, manufacturing rose 0.3% and mining advanced 0.6% last month. Overall, total industrial production in March was 1.3% above its year-earlier level.
The number of issued residential building permits rose 1.6% in March but was 0.2% below the March 2024 rate. Single-family building permits in March were 2.0% below the February estimate. Residential housing starts in March were 11.4% below the prior month’s total but were 1.9% higher than the estimate from a year ago. Single-family housing starts in March were 14.2% under the February figure. Residential housing completions in March were 2.1% below the February estimate but 3.9% above the March 2024 figure. Completions of single-family houses in March were 0.9% higher than the February total.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.168 per gallon on April 14, $0.075 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.460 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of April 14, the East Coast price ticked down $0.063 to $3.016 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.095 to $3.008 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.094 to $2.747 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.067 to $3.098 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.053 to $4.267 per gallon.
For the week ended April 12, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 5 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 5 was 1,885,000, an increase of 41,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 29 were New Jersey (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.5%), California (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), Illinois (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), New York (1.8%), and Oregon (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 5 were in California (+5,410), Tennessee (+2,665), Oregon (+1,331), Virginia (+1,139), and Florida (+1,105), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-2,955), Iowa (-1,254), New York (-1,085), Kansas (-145), and Arkansas (-134).
Eye on the Week Ahead
Economic reports focus on the real estate sector this week. The March data on sales of both new and existing homes is available. February was a good month for sales of existing homes and new single-family homes. However, mortgage rates have remained elevated, which could impact sales during the spring season.
A late-week rally helped push stocks higher to close a turbulent week on a favorable note. Last week began with stocks mixed as investors tried to gauge President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff policy. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped nearly 20 basis points to 4.20% last Monday, rebounding from the previous week’s six-month low. Stocks retreated last Tuesday following the administration’s threat of a 104% tariff on China, effective the following day. However, investors returned to risk after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on many of his new tariffs. The market enjoyed its best day in several years as the S&P 500 gained 9.5%, the Dow rose 7.9%, and the NASDAQ climbed 12.2%. Wall Street reversed course on Thursday, cutting into most of the prior day’s gains. Investors re-focused their attention on the likelihood of a trade war with China. Typical of the volatile week, stocks rebounded to close out the week as optimism grew over a possible trade deal between the U.S. and China. Market sector performance was mixed, with information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary outperforming, while real estate, financials, and energy lagged.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 4/11
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
38,314.86
40,212.71
4.95%
-5.48%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
15,587.79
16,724.46
7.29%
-13.39%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,074.08
5,363.36
5.70%
-8.81%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
1,827.03
1,860.20
1.82%
-16.59%
Global Dow
4,863.01
4,685.08
4,780.86
2.04%
-1.69%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
3.98%
4.49%
51 bps
-8 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
103.12
99.87
-3.15%
-7.90%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$62.59
$61.56
-1.65%
-14.21%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,058.70
$3,251.50
6.30%
23.23%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
Inflation trended lower in March, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, which fell 0.1% last month after increasing 0.2% in February. Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 2.4% after increasing 2.8% for the 12 months ended in February. Prices for energy fell 2.4%, largely on the heels of a 6.3% decline in gasoline prices, which offset increases in prices for electricity and natural gas. Prices for food, on the other hand, rose 0.4% in March. Core prices, less food and energy, rose 0.1% last month following a 0.2% increase in February. Core prices rose 2.8% over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase since the period ended March 2021.
Prices at the wholesale level fell 0.4% in March, according to the Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI increased 0.1% in February. For the 12 months ended in March, the PPI advanced 2.7%. Over 70% of the decrease in wholesale prices in March was traced to a 0.9% decline in prices for goods, which was the largest decrease since October 2023. Gasoline prices fell 11.1% in March, accounting for two-thirds of the decline in prices for goods. Prices for services fell 0.2% last month. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1% in March after increasing 0.4% in each of the previous three months. For the 12 months ended in March, prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.4%.
The federal government budget deficit was $161 billion in March. Receipts were $368 billion, while expenditures totaled $528 billion. For fiscal year 2025, the deficit sits at $1,307 billion. Total receipts were $2,260 billion. Government outlays were $3,567 billion. Over the same period in the prior fiscal year, the deficit was $1,065 billion. Receipts were $2,188 billion, while expenditures were $3,253 billion.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.243 per gallon on April 7, $0.081 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.348 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of April 7, the East Coast price ticked up $0.087 to $3.079 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.029 to $3.103 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.111 to $2.841 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.054 to $3.165 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.139 to $4.320 per gallon.
For the week ended April 5, there were 223,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 29 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 29 was 1,850,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 22 were Rhode Island (2.7%), New Jersey (2.6%), California (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Minnesota (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), Illinois (2.1%), District of Columbia (1.9%), New York (1.9%), and Montana (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 29 were in Kentucky (+2,810), Illinois (+1,286), Iowa (+937), Wisconsin (+742), and Ohio (+404), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-765), Pennsylvania (-755), Massachusetts (-603), Arizona (-519), and New Jersey (-436).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The latest data on sales at the retail level is available this week. February saw retail sales tick up 0.2% for the month. Also out this week is the estimate of industrial production for March. Industrial production rose 0.7% in February, while manufacturing output increased 0.9%.
Wall Street endured its worst week since the Covid crisis as investors shunned risk in response to inflation and recession fears following President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and China’s immediate retaliatory response. Despite a better-than-expected jobs report, comments made last Friday by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who indicated that the economy was in a good place, but the current economic policy raised the risk of higher unemployment and inflation. The downturn in equities was spread among most of the market sectors with the exception of utilities. Consumer discretionary, industrials, communication services, financials, and energy were hit the hardest. Stocks began last week by moving higher on both Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement. However, the fallout from the more aggressive-than-expected tariff plan was significant last Thursday and Friday. Bond prices rose higher with increased demand, dragging yields on 10-year Treasuries to a nearly six-month low. Crude oil prices dropped to their lowest value since August 2021 as mounting fears over a global economic slowdown raised the prospects of weakening oil demand.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 4/4
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
41,583.90
38,314.86
-7.86%
-9.94%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
17,322.99
15,587.79
-10.02%
-19.28%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,580.94
5,074.08
-9.08%
-13.73%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,023.27
1,827.03
-9.70%
-18.08%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,135.73
4,685.08
-8.77%
-3.66%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.25%
3.98%
-27 bps
-59 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
103.96
103.12
-0.81%
-4.91%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$69.14
$62.59
-9.47%
-12.78%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,116.50
$3,058.70
-1.85%
15.93%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
March saw employment rise by a better-than-expected 228,000. February’s total was revised down from 151,000 to 117,000, and the January total was lowered by 14,000. With these revisions, employment for January and February combined was 48,000 lower than previously reported. Last month, the total number of employed was 164.0 million, an increase of 201,000 over the February total. In March, the total number of unemployed, at 7.1 million, was virtually unchanged from the prior month. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.2% in March. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024. In March, the labor force participation rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 62.5%, while the employment-population ratio, at 59.9%, was unchanged from the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, changed little in March. The long-term unemployed accounted for 21.3% of all unemployed people. In March, average hourly earnings rose by $0.09, or 0.3%, to $36.00. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. In March, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.2 hours.
The manufacturing sector retreated somewhat in March after a strong finish in February. The reduction in factory output was due, in part, to a slowdown in new orders. New hires stalled after four straight months of gains. The drop in production was the first since December 2024. Cost pressures intensified, largely due to the impact of tariffs, with input price inflation rising to its highest level in over two years.
Business in the services sector expanded in March, despite operating expenses increasing at an 18-month high. New business rose on the heels of increased customer demand.
The number of job openings ticked down in February, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. At 7.6 million, job openings fell by 194,000 in February from January, while the number of hires was little changed at 5.4 million. The number of total separations, at 5.3 million, was also little changed from the prior month.
The latest data on the international trade deficit was released on March 6 and was for January. At that time, the international trade in goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion, 34.0% above the December estimate and 96.5% higher than the January 2024 deficit. In January, exports were $3.3 billion, or 1.2% above the December figure. Imports were $36.6 billion, or 10.0% higher than December imports. Since January 2024, exports increased 4.1% and imports advanced 23.1%.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.162 per gallon on March 31, $0.047 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.355 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 31, the East Coast price ticked up $0.031 to $2.992 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.054 to $3.074 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price dipped $0.010 to $2.730 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.068 to $3.111 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.126 to $4.181 per gallon.
For the week ended March 29, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 22 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 22 was 1,903,000, an increase of 56,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,970,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 15 were Rhode Island (2.8%), New Jersey (2.7%), California (2.4%), Minnesota (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), Illinois (2.2%), District of Columbia (2.0%), Montana (1.9%), and New York (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 22 were in Kentucky (+915), Oregon (+577), New York (+544), Tennessee (+429), and Missouri (+392), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-4,040), California (-1,826), Texas (-1,774), Mississippi (-1,764), and Pennsylvania (-565).
Eye on the Week Ahead
March inflation data is available this week with the release of the Consumer Price Index. February saw consumer prices tick up 0.2% for the month and 2.8% over the last 12 months.
The Markets (first quarter through March 31, 2025)
Wall Street got off to a good start to begin the first quarter of 2025 and continued to rally for much of the quarter. Several of the benchmark indexes reached record highs in January through mid-February. However, U.S. stocks closed the first quarter in a tailspin, unable to keep pace with major global stocks. Following the presidential election, investors began the quarter hopeful that the new administration would encourage economic growth and lasso inflation. However, the Trump administration embarked on an economic policy that threatened or imposed tariffs on goods from major trade partners including Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as the European Union. Throughout March, investors worried about the impact of a trade war, rising inflation, and a potential economic recession. Both the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved little for much of the quarter, however, core prices (excluding volatile food and energy segments) increased on an annual basis, moving farther from the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target rate. In response, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% in February. In this context, U.S. stocks declined in March and for the quarter. The S&P 500 lost nearly 5.0%, while the NASDAQ declined over 10.0%. Among the market sectors, the first quarter saw consumer discretionary fall more than 16.0%, information technology decline about 15.0%, and communication services drop nearly 8.0%. On the other hand, energy outperformed by a large margin, gaining more than 10.0% from the beginning of the year. Rising bond prices weighed on yields, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries closing lower in each month of the quarter as investors sought safety amid escalating trade tensions. The yield on the 2-year note ended the quarter at about 3.92%, a decrease of 28.0 basis points from the beginning of the quarter. By the end of the quarter, nearly 70 S&P 500 companies reported negative earnings per share, which is above the five-year average of 57 and higher than the 10-year average of 62. According to FactSet, the number of companies issuing positive earnings per share is below the five-year average but a tick above the 10-year average.
Gold, considered a safe haven during volatile economic times, had its best quarter since 1986 after rising nearly 20.0% in the first quarter as the potential trade war and economic slowdown sent worried investors scurrying for more stable investments. Crude oil prices fluctuated throughout much of the quarter, ultimately ending up about where they began. Moving forward, a new round of tariffs set to take effect during the first week of April, could heighten fears of a global trade war, which could slow economic growth and curtail demand for energy. The retail price for regular gasoline was $3.115 per gallon on March 24, $0.010 below the price a month earlier but $0.072 more than the price at the beginning of the first quarter. Regular retail gas prices decreased $0.408 from a year ago. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.65% as of March 13. That’s up from 6.63% one week ago but down from 6.74% one year ago
January began the year and the first quarter on a high note. Stocks moved generally higher, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing higher. The S&P 500 gained 2.7%, the NASDAQ climbed 1.6%, and the Dow rose 4.7%. The Federal Reserve met in January and held the key policy rate at 4.25%-4.50% following three consecutive rate cuts. The yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at 4.56% after climbing to 4.80% mid-month. Inflation proved stubborn as both the CPI and the PCE price index increased year over year. Throughout the month, investors tried to digest the plethora of executive orders signed by President Trump. In addition, the administration imposed new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, creating uncertainty around global trade relations. While most of the market sectors closed higher, tech shares took a hit as a new Chinese AI company shook the industry.
Stocks ended February lower, with information technology, consumer discretionary, communications, and industrials underperforming. Bond prices climbed higher, pulling yields lower. The dollar index ticked lower, while gold prices moved modestly higher. Crude oil prices fell nearly 5.0% in February, marking the first monthly loss since November 2024. President Trump’s policies relative to tariffs, immigration, taxes, the Middle East, and the Ukraine/Russia conflict weighed on market sentiment. Mixed economic data and a hotter-than-expected CPI added to concerns of recession and stagflation. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 36.0 basis points.
The market volatility that began in February increased in March. Tariffs, persistent inflation, and the threat of global economic turmoil hit investors hard. Consumer confidence trended lower, notably future expectations, which fell to a 12-year low to a rate that could signal an economic recession. Each of the benchmark indexes declined in value, with the NASDAQ falling more than 8.0%. The energy sector was the only one to close March in the black. The remaining market sectors trended lower, with communication services and information technology underperforming notably. The dollar index declined under the weight of economic uncertainty. Gold prices, on the other hand, reached a record high. Crude oil prices moved higher after President Trump intimated that additional tariffs on Russia could be in the offing, which could lead to supply concerns.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
As of March 31
Monthly Change
Quarterly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
42,001.76
-4.20%
-1.28%
-1.28%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
17,299.29
-8.21%
-10.42%
-10.42%
S&P 500
5,881.63
5,611.85
-5.75%
-4.59%
-4.59%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,011.01
-7.03%
-9.83%
-9.79%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,106.01
-2.10%
5.00%
5.00%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.24%
4 bps
-33 bps
-33 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
104.19
-3.13%
-3.92%
-3.92%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$71.38
2.04%
-0.53%
-0.53%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,156.40
10.08%
19.63%
19.63%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Latest Economic Reports
Employment: Job growth was slightly below expectations in February, with the addition of 151,000 new jobs after a downward revision of 18,000 new jobs in January, from 143,000 to 125,000. In February, the unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. The number of unemployed persons rose by 203,000 to 7.1 million in February. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was 1.5 million, essentially unchanged from the January figure. These individuals accounted for 20.9% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in February was 62.4%, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. The employment-population ratio also decreased 0.2 percentage point to 59.9% in February. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $35.93 in February. Since February 2024, average hourly earnings rose by 4.0% (4.1% for the 12 months ended in January 2025). The average workweek was unchanged at 34.1 hours in February.
There were 224,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 22, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,856,000. A year ago, there were 214,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,802,000.
FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate at the current 4.25%-4.50% following its meeting in March. The projected path of monetary policy points to two interest rate cuts of 25.0 basis points each by the end of 2025.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, accelerated at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter following an increase of 3.1% in the third quarter. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in 2024, compared with an annual increase of 2.9% in 2023. Consumer spending, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 4.0% in the fourth quarter following a 3.7% rise in the third quarter. Spending on services rose 3.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 2.8% increase in the third quarter. Consumer spending on goods increased 6.2% in the fourth quarter (5.6% in the third quarter). Fixed investment declined 1.1% in the fourth quarter after increasing 2.1% in the third quarter. Nonresidential (business) fixed investment declined 3.0% in the fourth quarter after climbing 4.0% in the previous quarter. Residential fixed investment rose 5.5% in the fourth quarter following a 4.3% decrease in the third quarter. Exports fell 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 9.6% increase in the previous quarter. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, decreased 1.9% in the fourth quarter after rising 10.7% in the third quarter.
February saw the federal budget deficit come in at $307.0 biillion, compared to a deficit of $296.3 billion a year ago. The deficit for the first five months of fiscal year 2025, at $1,147.0 trillion, is well above the $828.0 billion deficit over the first five months of the previous fiscal year. So far in fiscal year 2025, government receipts totaled $1,893.0 trillion, while government outlays totaled $3,039.0 trillion. Through the first five months of fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $959.0 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $631.0 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income rose 0.8% in February, while disposable personal income increased 0.9% last month after both increased 0.7% in January. Consumer spending increased 0.4% in February after decreasing 0.3% the previous month. Consumer prices inched up 0.3% in February for the third straight month. Excluding food and energy (core prices), prices rose 0.4% in February. Consumer prices rose 2.5% for the 12 months ended in February, unchanged from the same period ended in January. Core prices increased 2.8% over the last 12 months. Since February 2024, prices for food rose 1.5%, while energy prices decreased 1.1%.
The increase in consumer prices slowed in February following a more rapid increase between November 2024 and January 2025. The Consumer Price Index rose by just 0.2% in February after advancing 0.5% in January. Over the 12 months ended in February, the CPI rose 2.8%, 0.2 percentage point below the rate for the 12 months ended in January. Core prices (excluding food and energy) also ticked up 0.2% last month and 3.1% since February 2024. Prices for shelter rose 0.3% in February (and 4.2% for the last 12 months), accounting for nearly half of the February increase. Food prices increased 0.2% last month and 2.6% for the year. Energy prices rose 0.2% in February but declined 0.2% since February 2024. Gasoline prices decreased 1.0% in February and 3.1% over the last 12 months.
Prices at the wholesale level were flat in February, according to the latest Producer Price Index. Producer prices increased 3.2% for the 12 months ended in February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the estimate for the 12-month period ended in January. Excluding food and energy, producer prices fell 0.1% in February but increased 3.4% for the year. In February, prices for goods rose 0.3% (0.6% in January) and 1.7% since February 2024 (2.3% for the 12 months ended in January). Last month saw prices for services fall 0.2% after advancing 0.6% in January. Prices for services have risen 3.9% for the 12 months ended in February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the increase over the 12 months ended in January.
Housing: Sales of existing homes increased 4.2% in February but were 1.2% under the February 2024 figure. The median existing-home price was $398,400 in February, above the January estimate of $393,400 and higher than the year-earlier price of $383,800. Unsold inventory of existing homes in February represented a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from the January estimate but above the 3.0-month supply in February 2024. Sales of existing single-family homes increased 5.7% in February but were 0.3% below the estimate from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $402,500 in February ($398,100 in January), above the February 2024 estimate of $388,000.
New single-family home sales rose 18.9% in February but were 1.8% below the February 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in February was $414,500 ($427,400 in January) down from the February 2024 estimate of $420,900. The February average sales price was $487,100 ($507,900 in January), below the February 2024 average sales price of $509,700. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in February represented a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales pace, slightly lower than the January estimate of 9.0 months but above the 8.7-month supply from a year earlier.
Manufacturing: Industrial production increased 0.7% in February following a 0.3% advance in January. Manufacturing output gained 0.9% last month after ticking up 0.1% in January. In February, mining increased 2.8%, while utilities fell 2.5%. Over the 12 months ended in February, total industrial production was 1.4% above its year-earlier reading. Since February 2024, manufacturing increased 0.7%, utilities rose 8.7%, while mining was unchanged.
New orders for durable goods unexpectedly increased 0.9% in February after rising 3.3% in the prior month. For the 12 months ended in February, durable goods orders advanced 2.3%. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.7% in February from the prior month. Excluding defense, new orders advanced 0.8%. Transportation equipment, which increased 1.5% for the second straight month, led the overall increase in new orders in February.
Imports and exports: Import prices exceeded expectations after rising 0.4% in February, the same increase as in January. Prices for imports rose 2.0% over the last 12 months. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices in February contributed to the overall increase in import prices. Import fuel prices advanced 1.7% in February after increasing 3.5% in January. Import fuel prices rose 2.8% over the past 12 months ended in February. Prices for nonfuel imports edged up 0.3% in February and advanced 2.0% over the last 12 months. Prices for exports rose 0.1% in February, following a 1.3% advance in January. Higher agricultural and nonagricultural export prices each contributed to the increase in February. Export prices rose 2.1% over the past year.
The international trade in goods deficit in February was $147.9 billion, 4.9% less than the January estimate. Exports of goods for February were 4.1% above January exports. Imports of goods for February were 0.2% less than January imports. Over the 12 months ended in February, the goods deficit grew by about $56.0 billion. Exports rose 2.5%, while imports increased 22.5%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released March 6, saw the goods and services deficit jump 34.0% in January to $131.1 billion. Exports of goods increased 1.2% to $269.8 billion in January. Imports of goods were $401.2 billion in January, an increase of 10.0% over the December figure. For the 12 months ended in January 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $64.5 billion, or 96.5%, from January 2024. Exports increased $10.6 billion, or 4.1%. Imports increased $75.2 billion, or 23.1%.
International markets: Global markets trended lower in March as concerns over a trade war dampened the economic outlook and curbed investor sentiment. The German inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in March, the lowest it’s been since November 2024. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its key interest rate in mid-April as inflation data seems to be heading toward the ECB’s 2.0% target. While China’s stock market managed to trend higher last month, that country’s industrial output fell by 3.6% over the last 12 months, marking the steepest decline since May 2023. In March, the STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 5.1%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE declined 3.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 5.7%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index ticked up 0.6%.
Consumer confidence: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined for a fourth straight month in March after falling 7.2 points to 92.9. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, dropped 3.6 points to 134.5 in March. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 9.6 points to 65.2 in March, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the 80 point threshold that usually signals an impending recession.
Eye on the Quarter Ahead
The Federal Reserve does not meet in April, so there will be some time to determine the impact of President Trump’s economic policy and tariffs.
What I'm Watching This Week 