Author: dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close March 7, 2025)

Stocks suffered through their worst week since September, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here falling more than 2.3% with the exception of the Global Dow, which gained less than 1.0%. Investors faced trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a slightly weaker-than-expected jobs report. Each of the market sectors declined last week, with the exception of health care. Information technology dropped more than 7.4%. Last Friday, reassurance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the economy remained solid helped quell some of the angst among investors, which helped push bond yields higher at week’s end. Crude oil prices rallied on Friday but not enough to prevent a weekly decline of over 4.0%.

The stock market began last week on a sour note following President Trump’s affirmation that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect early last week. Stocks saw a major drop in value as investors feared the new tariffs would negatively impact the economy. The S&P 500 (-1.8%) had its worst day since December. The NASDAQ fell 2.6%, and the Dow lost 1.5%. The small caps of the Russell 2000 plunged 2.8%. The Global Dow rose 0.2%. Tech and energy shares led the sell-off. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped 5.1 basis points to 4.18% as investors moved toward government bonds. Crude oil prices fell 2.1% to settle at $68.36 per barrel, marking the lowest price this year. The dollar index dipped 1.0%, while gold prices rose nearly 2.0%.

Stocks continued to tumble lower last Tuesday as investors reacted to escalating trade tensions. The Global Dow and the Dow each fell 1.6%, followed by the S&P 500 (-1.2%), the Russell 2000 (-1.1%), and the NASDAQ (-0.4%). Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.20%. Crude oil prices declined to $68.28 per barrel. The dollar index lost 1.0% against a basket of world currencies, while gold prices rose 0.9%.

Investors moved back to equities last Wednesday after President Trump announced a one-month exemption on auto tariffs for Mexico and Canada. The Global Dow reversed the prior day’s downturn, climbing 1.8%, followed by the NASDAQ, which rose 1.5%. The Dow and the S&P 500 each advanced 1.1%, while the Russell 2000 climbed 1.0%. Ten-year Treasury yields added 5.5 basis points to reach 4.26%. Crude oil prices dropped 2.7% to $66.45 per barrel. The dollar fell 1.3%, while gold prices ticked up 0.3%.

Wall Street couldn’t maintain momentum from the previous day as stocks declined. Investors appeared anxious as uncertainty over tariffs prevailed. Tech stocks led the downturn. The NASDAQ lost 2.6% on the day and more than 10.0% from its December high, plunging that index into correction territory. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, the Russell 2000 declined 1.6%, and the Dow fell 1.0%. The Global Dow eked out a 0.1% gain. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up to 4.28%. Crude oil prices stemmed losses, settling at about $66.28 per barrel. The dollar dipped 0.1%, and gold prices fell 0.2%.

Stocks rebounded last Friday to end a volatile week of trading. The NASDAQ led the benchmark indexes listed here after climbing 0.7%. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow gained 0.5%, the Russell 2000 added 0.4%, and the Global Dow inched up 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields gained 3.1 basis points to close at 4.31%. Crude oil prices advanced 1.0%, while both the dollar and gold prices fell.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Employment rose by 151,000 in February, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. February’s job gains were below the average over the past 12 months (168,000). In February, employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined. The change in employment for December was revised up by 16,000, while the change for January was revised down by 18,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined was 2,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.1% last month, while the number of unemployed rose by 203,000 to 7.1 million. The labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio each declined 0.2 percentage point to 62.4% and 59.9%, respectively. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, changed little in February. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.9% of all unemployed people. In February, average hourly earnings rose by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $35.93. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%. In February, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.1 hours.
• According to the latest S&P Global survey of purchasing managers, the manufacturing sector accelerated in February, which saw notable increases in production and new orders. It is likely that the rise in new orders was partially driven by advanced purchases ahead of anticipated price increases and supply disruptions due to tariff impositions. There was also evidence that some suppliers were already adjusting their prices upwards in direct response to potential tariffs, with input cost inflation increasing to its highest level since November 2022. Output charges also rose to a two-year high in February.
• The services sector continued to expand in February but at a slower pace than in prior months. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index recorded 51.0 in February, marking the tenth straight month of expansion but at the slowest rate of growth since November 2023. Survey respondents expressed concern over the impact of government trade policies and federal budget cuts. Job cuts were noted in the services sector for the first time in three months.
• The latest report on the international trade in goods and services deficit, released March 6, is for January and revealed that the trade deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion, or 34.0%, from December. January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion, or 1.2%, more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion, or 10.0%, more than December imports. For the 12 months ended in January, the goods and services deficit increased $64.5 billion, or 96.5%, from January 2024. Exports increased $10.6 billion, or 4.1%. Imports increased $75.2 billion, or 23.1%.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.078 per gallon on March 3, $0.047 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.272 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 3, the East Coast price fell $0.034 to $2.977 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.056 to $2.882 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.068 to $2.636 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.055 to $2.964 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.047 to $4.141 per gallon.
• For the week ended March 1, there were 221,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 22 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 22 was 1,897,000, an increase of 42,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 15 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), Minnesota (2.6%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Montana (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), California (2.3%), Illinois (2.3%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), Connecticut (1.9%), Michigan (1.9%), and New York (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 22 were in Massachusetts (+3,808), Rhode Island (+2,081), Illinois (+1,539), Wisconsin (+1,016), and Missouri (+973), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-3,074), California (-2,657), Tennessee (-2,550), Washington (-2,000), and Texas (-1,177).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The latest reports on inflation are available this week with the releases of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. The CPI was 3.0% for the year ended in January, while the PPI was up 3.5% from the year before.

The Markets (as of market close February 28, 2025)

The markets experienced a volatile week, ultimately closing mostly lower. Among the indexes listed here, only the Dow managed to eke out a weekly gain. The week ended with stocks posting gains, despite a tense meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. Investors wrestled with the uncertain economic impact of President Trump’s proposed tariffs, inflationary pressures that refuse to subside, and geopolitical turmoil. Treasury yields declined as bond prices rose. Crude oil prices dipped lower. The dollar index rose, while gold prices declined.

Wall Street continued to lag last Monday following the prior week’s sharp losses. The NASDAQ lost 1.2%, the Russell 2000 fell 0.8%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% as weakness in tech shares dragged stocks lower. The Global Dow slipped 0.1%, while the Dow eked out a 0.1% gain. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.40%, the lowest level since mid-December. Crude oil prices edged up 0.6% to $70.83 per barrel. The dollar index was virtually unchanged, while gold prices rose 0.4%.

Stocks slid mostly lower last Tuesday as investors looked ahead to the latest earnings report from a major AI company. For the second straight day, tech shares tumbled, with the NASDAQ falling 1.4%. The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to four days after declining 0.5%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.4%. The Dow gained 0.4%, while the Global Dow was unchanged. Yields on 10-year Treasuries settled at 4.29% after sliding 9.5 basis points. Crude oil prices ended the day at $69.12 per barrel. The dollar dipped 0.1%, while gold prices rose 0.6%.

The market returns were mixed last Wednesday. The S&P 500 barely ended its losing streak. The NASDAQ gained 0.3%, while the Global Dow and the Russell 2000 added 0.2%. The Dow fell 0.4%. Technology, which had been lagging, drove market gains. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.24%. Crude oil prices dropped to $68.77 per barrel. The dollar index gained 0.2%, while gold prices rose 0.4%.

Stocks slid sharply last Thursday, dragged lower by a selloff in tech shares. The NASDAQ fell 2.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, the Russell 2000 lost 1.3%, the Global Dow declined 0.8%, and the Dow slid 0.5%. While the earnings report from a major AI company beat analysts’ expectations, potential tariffs on chips worried investors. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked up to 4.28%. Crude oil prices rose to $70.16 per barrel. The dollar index gained 0.8%, while gold prices fell 1.6%.

The stock market ended last week on a high note, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each advanced 1.6%. The Dow gained 1.4%. The Russell 2000 added 1.0%, and the Global Dow ticked up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the session down 5.2 basis points. Crude oil prices fell about 0.4%. The dollar index gained 0.3%, while gold prices fell 1.1%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• According to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. GDP increased 3.1% in the third quarter. Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, turned down. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter, 0.1 percentage point above the increase in the third quarter. For 2024, the PCE price index increased 2.5%. Personal consumption expenditures rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter after advancing 3.7% in the third quarter.
• Both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income advanced 0.9% in January, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of consumer spending, fell 0.2% in January. The PCE price index for January increased 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for January increased 2.5%, while the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.6%.
• The international trade in goods deficit was $153.3 billion in January, up $31.2 billion, or 25.6%, from December. Exports of goods for January were $172.2 billion, $3.3 billion, or 2.0%, more than December exports. Imports of goods for January were $325.4 billion, $34.6 billion, or 11.9%, more than December imports.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 3.1% in January after decreasing in each of the previous two months. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, climbing 9.8%.
• Sales of new single-family homes in January were 10.5% below the prior month’s total and 1.1% below the January 2024 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2025 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000. The inventory of new houses for sale in January represented a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales pace.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.125 per gallon on February 24, $0.023 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.124 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 24, the East Coast price fell $0.013 to $3.011 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.044 to $2.938 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.036 to $2.704 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.027 to $3.019 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.001 to $4.188 per gallon.
• For the week ended February 22, there were 242,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 15 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 15 was 1,862,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 2,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 8 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), Minnesota (2.5%), Washington (2.5%), California (2.4%), Illinois (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Montana (2.4%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), Connecticut (1.9%), Michigan (1.9%), and New York (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 15 were in Kentucky (+3,012), Tennessee (+2,766), Washington (+735), Michigan (+452), and Minnesota (+83), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,530), Pennsylvania (-1,110), Florida (-981), New Jersey (-903), and New York (-698).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The jobs data for February is available this week. January saw employment increase by 143,000, while average hourly earnings ticked up 0.5% for the month and 4.1% over the last 12 months.

The Markets (as of market close February 21, 2025)

Wall Street saw stocks close lower last week as investors soured on risk following the release of weaker-than-expected economic data and inflation worries. Each of the benchmark indexes ended the week in the red. Among the market sectors, consumer discretionary and communication services underperformed. Bond prices moved higher on increased demand, dragging yields lower. Crude oil prices declined for the third straight week. The dollar index ticked lower, while gold prices advanced.

The U.S. stock market was closed last Monday in recognition of Presidents’ Day. However, stocks rose last Tuesday with each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing higher. The Global Dow added 0.4% to lead the way. The Russell 2000 gained 0.3%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, reaching a new record. The NASDAQ ticked up 0.1%. The Dow inched up less than 0.1%. Energy stocks outperformed, offsetting weakness in consumer discretionary and communication services stocks. Yields on 10-year Treasuries edged up to 4.54%. Crude oil prices gained 1.5% to settle at $71.79 per barrel. The dollar index gained 0.4% against a basket of currencies, while gold jumped 1.7% as it neared $3,000.00 per ounce.

The benchmark indexes closed mostly higher last Wednesday. The S&P 500 and the Dow each gained 0.2%, while the NASDAQ rose 0.1%. The Global Dow (-0.5%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.3%) declined. Health care and consumer staples led the market sectors, while materials underperformed. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked lower, closing at 4.53%. Crude oil prices climbed to $72.30 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices inched higher.

Stocks lost value last Thursday after a major retailer’s disappointing profit outlook stirred concerns about economic growth. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here trended lower, led by the Dow, which lost 1.0%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.9%, the NASDAQ dropped 0.5%, the S&P 500 declined 0.4%, and the Global Dow slipped 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.50%. Crude oil prices rose to $72.53 per barrel. The dollar index declined 0.8%, while gold prices rose 0.6%.

Last Friday saw stocks plunge lower. The Russell 2000 (-2.6%) and the NASDAQ (-2.2%) led the declines, followed by the Dow and the S&P 500, which each lost 1.7%. The Global Dow slipped 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 8.0 basis points. Crude oil prices dropped 3.1%. The dollar index inched up 0.3%, while gold prices declined 0.2%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The number of building permits issued in January was 0.1% above the revised December rate but is 1.7% below the January 2024 estimate. Single-family building permits in January were virtually unchanged from the revised December rate. Housing starts in January were 9.8% below the revised December estimate and were 0.7% under the January 2024 rate. Single-family housing starts in January were 8.4% below the revised December figure. Residential housing completions in January were 7.6% above the revised December estimate and 9.8% higher than the January 2024 rate. Single-family housing completions in January were 7.1% above the revised December estimate.
• Sales of existing homes declined 4.9% in January but were up 2.0% from a year earlier. Elevated mortgage rates slowed sales. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.85% as of February 20. That’s down from 6.87% one week ago and 6.90% one year ago. Inventory of homes for sale increased from 3.2 months in December to 3.5 months in January. The median existing home price fell 1.7% to $396,900 last month but was 4.8% above the January 2024 price of $378,600. Single-family home sales declined 5.2% in January but were 2.2% above the year earlier rate. The median existing single-family home price was $402,000 in January, down from the December price of $408,200 but higher than the January 2024 price of $382,900.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.148 per gallon on February 17, $0.020 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.121 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 17, the East Coast price fell $0.026 to $3.024 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.003 to $2.982 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.048 to $2.740 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.026 to $3.046 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.156 to $4.187 per gallon.
• For the week ended February 15, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 8 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 8 was 1,869,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 5,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 1 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), Minnesota (2.5%), California (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), Illinois (2.3%), Montana (2.3%), Michigan (2.0%), and Pennsylvania (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 8 were in California (+1,161), Texas (+861), Florida (+816), Washington (+640), and Virginia (+596), while the largest decreases were in New York (-3,013), Pennsylvania (-2,944), Wisconsin (-1,549), Ohio (-1,095), and Illinois (-975).

Eye on the Week Ahead

A considerable amount of economic data is being released this week, however the most attention will be paid to the second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product. The initial estimate showed the economy expanded at a rate of 2.3%. The report on personal income and outlays for January is also out this week. Investors will be paying particular attention to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. It is expected that the PCE price index will move higher, in line with other inflation indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index.

The Markets (as of market close February 14, 2025)
The markets ended the week higher, despite falling retail sales (see below) and ever-changing tariff proposals from the administration. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained ground, led by the Global Dow and the NASDAQ. Information technology and consumer staples led the market sectors, while consumer discretionary, health care, and financials underperformed. Crude oil prices trended lower, as did the dollar. Gold prices eked out a weekly gain.

Last week began on a high note as stocks made notable gains. The NASDAQ rose 1.0%, driven higher by gains in major tech stocks. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, while the Dow and the Russell 2000 each advanced 0.4%. The Global Dow increased 0.3%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up to 4.49%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.0% to $72.44 per barrel on mounting supply concerns. The dollar index gained 0.3%, while gold prices rose 1.6%.

Stocks struggled last Tuesday following the announcement of new tariffs, which fueled concerns over a possible trade war. In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Open Market Committee was in no hurry to cut interest rates as the strength of the economy affords the chance to wait for inflationary pressures to move closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target. The Global Dow (0.4%) and the Dow (0.3%) climbed higher, while the S&P 500 was flat on the day. The Russell 2000 (-0.5%) and the NASDAQ (-0.4%) trended lower. Ten-year Treasury yields pushed higher, closing the session at 4.53%. Crude oil prices climbed 1.2% to settle at $73.17 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices lost value.

Last Wednesday saw stocks close mostly lower, with only the Global Dow (0.4%) adding value, while the NASDAQ was unchanged from the previous day. The Russell 2000 fell 0.8%, the Dow dropped 0.5%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.3%. January’s hot inflation report (see below) reinforced the cautious approach taken by the Fed, quelling hopes of interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Ten-year Treasury yields moved higher, reaching 4.63% by the close of trading. Crude oil prices gave back gains from the prior day, falling 2.7% to $71.31 per barrel. The dollar broke even, while gold prices dipped 0.3%.

Stocks climbed higher last Thursday despite a second batch of higher-than-expected inflation data. The NASDAQ gained 1.5%, the Global Dow rose 1.3%, the Russell 2000 advanced 1.2%, the S&P 500 moved up 1.0%, and the Dow added 0.8%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries cooled after dropping 11.2 basis points to close at 4.52%. Crude oil prices ticked up to $71.46 per barrel. The dollar lost 0.8%, while gold prices gained 1.0%.

Wall Street struggled to maintain gains last Friday, ending the session with mixed results. The NASDAQ and the Global Dow each rose 0.4%, while the Dow declined 0.4%. The Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 essentially broke even. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked lower, settling at 4.47%. Crude oil prices fell 1.1%. The dollar index slid 0.5%. Gold prices fell 1.7%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in January, the largest one-month increase since August 2023. The January advance followed monthly advances of 0.4% in December and 0.3% in November. Excluding food and energy (core prices), prices rose 0.4% last month. Shelter costs rose 0.4% in January, accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly all items increase. Energy prices rose 1.1% over the month, as gasoline prices increased 1.8%. Prices for food also increased in January, rising 0.4%. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices increased 3.0%, after rising 2.9% over the 12 months ending December. Core prices rose 3.3% over the last 12 months. Over the same period, energy prices advanced 1.0% and prices for food increased 2.5%. While consumer prices have been ticking higher over the past several months, the January data offered more stark evidence that inflation is on the rise again, even before newly proposed tariffs influenced consumer prices.
• Wholesale prices moved higher in January. According to the latest report, the Producer Price Index rose 0.4% last month following an upwardly revised December increase of 0.5%. In January, prices for services increased 0.3%, and prices for goods advanced 0.6%. Prices less food and energy rose 0.3% in January, while prices less food, energy, and trade services also advanced 0.3%. Over the last 12 months, producer prices have risen 3.5%, the same increase as occurred for the 12 months ended in December.
• Retail sales, a measure of consumer spending, fell 0.9% in January but were up 4.2% from the previous year’s total. Excluding sales from motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations, retail sales fell 0.5% last month. Retail trade sales were down 1.2% from December 2024 but up 4.0% from last year. Sales for motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 6.4% from last year, while sales at food service and drinking places were up 5.4% from January 2024.
• Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.3% in January after advancing 0.2% in December. Higher fuel (+3.2%) and nonfuel (+0.1%) prices in January contributed to the overall increase in import prices. Prices for U.S. imports advanced 1.9% from January 2024 to January 2025. U.S. export prices rose 1.3% in January following a 0.5% advance the previous month. The January increase was the largest monthly advance since May 2022. U.S. export prices increased 2.7% over the past year, the largest 12-month advance since the year ended December 2022.
• Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5% in January after moving up 1.0% in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the earlier resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output declined 0.1% in January, held down by a 5.2% decrease in manufacturing of motor vehicles and parts. Mining fell 1.2%, while utilities jumped 7.2%, as cold temperatures boosted the demand for heating. Total IP in January was 2.0% above its year-earlier level.
• The government deficit for January was $129.0 billion, $42.0 billion higher than the December deficit and $106.0 billion above the January 2024 deficit. Through the first four months of the fiscal year, the total deficit sits at $840.0 billion, over $300.0 billion higher than the cumulative deficit over the same period last year.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.128 per gallon on February 10, $0.046 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.064 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 10, the East Coast price rose $0.031 to $3.050 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.066 to $2.985 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.017 to $2.692 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.053 to $3.020 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.107 to $4.031 per gallon.
• For the week ended February 8, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 1 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 1 was 1,850,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week’s level. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 25 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), Minnesota (2.6%), California (2.4%), Illinois (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), Montana (2.3%), Pennsylvania (2.2%), Connecticut (2.0%), Michigan (2.0%), and New York (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 1 were in New York (+3,964), California (+3,418), Georgia (+1,049), Kansas (+855), and Texas (+798), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-978), Massachusetts (-854), Michigan (-493), Kentucky (-446), and Montana (-299).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The housing sector is prevalent this week with the latest data on housing starts and existing home sales for January. December saw both housing starts and completions surge, while the number of issued building permits lagged. Sales of existing homes increased in December and were up over 9.0% from a year earlier.

The Markets (as of market close February 7, 2025)

The markets closed lower last week as investors reacted to the possibility of additional tariffs from the Trump administration, the potential for rising inflation, a weak earnings report from a major Megacap, and a lower-than-expected jobs report. Of the indexes listed here, only the Global Dow managed to eke out a weekly gain. The remaining indexes closed lower, led by the Dow and the NASDAQ. Ten-year Treasury yields rebounded last Friday, but not enough to keep from ending last week lower. Crude oil prices declined nearly 3.5%, primarily due to increasing trade tensions, particularly with China.

Wall Street reacted bearishly last Monday following the White House’s announcement of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. Stocks got a minor boost later in the day after tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports were temporarily delayed by President Trump. Nevertheless, each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the day in the red, with the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ both falling 1.2%. The Global Dow declined 1.1%. The S&P 500 gave back 0.8%, while the Dow lost 0.3%. Crude oil prices inched up 0.5% to settle at $72.88 per barrel. However, tariffs on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico, if reinstituted, could send prices higher for gasoline and heating oil. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.54%. The dollar and gold prices ticked higher.

Stocks reversed course last Tuesday, ending the trading session higher as investors contemplated the latest tensions concerning global trade. Traders got some encouragement following President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days. The Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ each gained 1.4% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here. The S&P 500 and the Global Dow each rose 0.7%, while the Dow climbed 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.51%. Crude oil prices declined to $72.53 per barrel. The dollar index lost 0.9%, while gold prices increased 0.6%.

Last Wednesday saw stocks push higher for the second straight day. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.1%, followed by the Global Dow (0.8%), the Dow (0.7%), and the NASDAQ (0.2%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries slid 9.1 basis points to 4.42%, a seven-week low. Crude oil prices fell 2.1%, settling at $71.18 per barrel after a report that showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude oil inventories. The dollar slipped 0.3%, while gold prices rose 0.2%.

The benchmark indexes listed here closed last Thursday with mixed results as investors awaited earnings reports from some major companies and Friday’s jobs report. The Dow (-0.3%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.4%) declined. The NASDAQ and the Global Dow rose 0.5%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up to 4.44%. Crude oil prices continued to tumble, falling to $70.54 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.4%.

Stocks tumbled to close out the week last Friday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the session in the red, led by the NASDAQ, which lost 1.4%. The Russell 2000 slid 1.2%, while both the Dow and the S&P 500 fell 1.0%. The Global Dow dipped 0.5%. Ten-year Treasury yields added 4.7 basis points to close at 4.48%. Crude oil prices rose 0.5%. The dollar index gained 0.3%, while gold prices advanced 0.4%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• There were 143,000 new jobs added in January, which fell short of expectations. However, upward revisions in November (+49,000) and December (+51,000) combined to account for 100,000 new jobs. In January, job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry. The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.0% in January, and the total number of unemployed changed little at 6.8 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.4 million, declined by about 100,000 in January and accounted for 21.1% of all unemployed persons. Last month, both the labor participation rate (62.6%) and the employment-population ratio (60.1%) ticked up 0.1 percentage point. In January, average hourly earnings rose by $0.17, or 0.5%, to $35.87. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%. The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours in January.
• Manufacturing expanded in January amid a surge in confidence. Both output and new orders grew last month. New business increased for the first time since June 2024 on improving customer demand and greater confidence in the economy. According to the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™, the PMI® rose to 51.2 in January, up from 49.4 in December.
• Growth continued in the services sector in January but at a slower pace than in the previous month. The S&P Global US Services PMI® registered 52.9 in January, down from 56.8 in December. The survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global noted that business activity slowed in January as new orders declined somewhat. In fact, some survey respondents reported that the unusually freezing weather conditions seen in parts of the country may have been behind the slowdown in growth. Despite the slowdown in output, job creation reached a 31-month high as more than 42% of respondents predicted an increase in activity over the coming year.
• The number of job openings declined by about 560,000 in December, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. The number of job openings decreased by 1.3 million in 2024 from a year earlier. The number of job openings decreased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, and finance and insurance. Job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation. In December, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million but was down by 325,000 over the year. Total separations in December, which include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, were relatively unchanged at 5.3 million. In December, the number of quits was little changed at 3.2 million but declined by 242,000 over the year.
• The goods and services trade deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion, or 24.7%, from the November deficit. December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion, or 2.6%, less than November exports. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion, or 3.5%, more than November imports. For 2024, the goods and services deficit increased $133.5 billion, or 17.0%, from 2023. Exports increased $119.8 billion, or 3.9%. Imports increased $253.3 billion, or 6.6%.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.082 per gallon on February 3, $0.021 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.054 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 3, the East Coast price fell $0.057 to $3.019 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.027 to $2.919 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.013 to $2.709 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.047 to $2.967 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.043 to $3.924 per gallon.
• For the week ended February 1, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 25 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 25 was 1,886,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 18 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.8%), Minnesota (2.5%), Illinois (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Washington (2.3%), California (2.2%), Michigan (2.2%), Montana (2.2%), Alaska (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), and Puerto Rico (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 25 were in Washington (+441), Iowa (+317), Wisconsin (+151), Kansas (+67), and Wyoming (+2), while the largest decreases were in California (-14,003), Michigan (-9,589), Missouri (-4,144), Illinois (-3,220), and Texas (-2,352).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data for January is available this week with the release of the latest Consumer Price Index report. December saw prices rise 0.4% for the month and 2.9% for the 12 months ended in December.

The Markets (as of market close January 31, 2025)

Stocks trended higher for much of last week until Friday, when a Friday slide pulled several of the benchmark indexes listed here lower. Only the Dow and the Global Dow ended the week with gains, while the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 finished in the red. Last Friday, word that the president would enforce tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico cooled investors’ appetite for risk, sending bond yields and the dollar higher. Crude oil prices ended the week on an uptick but not enough to prevent prices from closing last week lower.

Wall Street got off to a rough start last Monday as the tech sector took a dive, particularly several chip makers. The NASDAQ fell 3.1%, while the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and the Russell 2000 (-1.1%) trended lower. The Dow (0.7%) and the Global Dow (0.2%) closed higher. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.52% as investors shunned stocks for bonds. Crude oil prices dipped to $73.05 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices closed in the red.

Last Tuesday, tech shares rebounded from the prior day’s downturn, leading stocks higher. The NASDAQ led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 2.0% by the close of trading. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9%, the Dow rose 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 added 0.2%. The Global Dow fell 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.55%. Crude oil prices reversed a stretch of losses, gaining 1.1% to settle at $74.00 per barrel. The dollar advanced 0.5%, while gold prices rose 1.2%.

Stocks trended lower last Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, as expected. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 eac fell 0.5%, the Dow lost 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.2%. The Global Dow inched up 0.2%. Investors turned their focus to an upcoming batch of key corporate earnings, while continuing to assess potential tariffs and other aspects of President Trump’s economic policy. Ten-year Treasury yields remained unchanged at 4.55%. Crude oil prices slipped 1.2% to $72.92 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices each ticked up 0.1%.

Last Thursday saw stocks close higher after a choppy day of trading. The Russell 2000 (1.1%) and the Global Dow (0.7%) led the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the S&P 500 (0.5%), the Dow (0.4%), and the NASDAQ (0.3%). Ten-year Treasury yields dipped 4.3 basis points to 4.51%. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices rose 2.1%. Crude oil prices gained 0.8% to settle at $73.17 per barrel.

Stocks gave up gains last Friday after news that President Trump was pushing ahead with tariffs against China, Canada, and Mexico. The Russell 2000 lost 0.9%, followed by the Dow (-0.8%), the Global Dow (-0.6%), the S&P 500 (-0.5%), and the NASDAQ (-0.3%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries gained 5.7 basis points to settle at 4.56%. Crude oil prices climbed nearly 1.0%. The dollar jumped 0.7%, while gold prices fell 0.4%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Federal Open Market Committee met last week and decided, unanimously, to maintain the current federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%. While noting that both the economy and the labor market remained solid, inflation stayed elevated. The Committee made its decision despite President Trump’s request that it cut interest rates. Subsequent to the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed needed to allow the economic policies of the Trump administration to be articulated prior to making any assessment.
• According to the advance estimate, gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The third quarter GDP rose 3.1%. The increase in GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending (4.2%) and government spending (2.5%) that were partly offset by a decrease in investment (-5.6%). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased 0.8%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.5%.
• In December, personal income rose 0.4%, compared to a 0.3% increase in November. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, jumped from 0.4% in November to 0.7% last month. Prices consumers paid for goods and services increased 0.3% in December after inching up 0.1% the previous month. Consumer prices less food and energy increased 0.2% last month following a 0.1% advance in November.
• Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in December and 6.7% above the December 2023 estimate. For 2024, sales were 2.5% above the 2023 figure. Total inventory sat at an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales price was $427,000 in December, higher than the November price of $402,500 and above the December 2023 estimate of $418,300. For 2024, the average median sales price was $420,100. The average sales price in December was $513,600 ($485,000 in November), which exceeded the December 2023 price of $493,000. For 2024, the average sales price was $512,200 ($514,000 for 2023).
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased 2.2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This followed a 2.0% November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3%. Excluding defense, new orders fell 2.4%. Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, drove the December decline, falling 7.4%. From December 2023, new orders for durable goods fell 1.5%.
• The advance report on the international trade in goods showed the deficit was $122.1 billion in December, up $18.6 billion, or 18.0%, from November. Exports of goods for December were $167.5 billion, $7.8 billion, or 4.5% less than November exports. Imports of goods for December were $289.6 billion, $10.8 billion, or 3.9%, more than November imports.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.103 per gallon on January 27, $0.006 per gallon below the prior week’s price but $0.008 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of January 27, the East Coast price climbed $0.007 to $3.076 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.039 to $2.946 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.005 to $2.696 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.009 to $2.920 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.010 to $3.881 per gallon.
• For the week ended January 25, there were 207,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 18 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 18 was 1,858,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 11 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), California (2.5%), Minnesota (2.5%), Illinois (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Montana (2.1%), Puerto Rico (2.1%), Alaska (2.0%), Michigan (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), and West Virginia (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 18 were in California (+5,725), West Virginia (+649), Arkansas (+312), the District of Columbia (+195), and Oklahoma (+135), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-9,351), Texas (-7,323), Ohio (-5,314), Illinois (-5,304), and Georgia (-4,692).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week’s focus is on the labor sector with the releases of the JOLTS report and the employment situation. Overall, employment has been steady, which has factored into the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain rates.

The Markets (as of market close January 24, 2025)

Wall Street closed up last week as investors considered the bevy of executive orders issued by President-elect Donald Trump during his first week in office. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the week higher, led by the Global Dow and the Dow. Communication services, health care, and industrials outperformed among the market sectors, while energy lagged. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked higher. Crude oil prices dropped nearly 4.5%, the largest weekly decline since November. The dollar index extended its decline to a one-month low. Gold reached its highest level since October.

With the U.S. stock market closed last Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, investors had a little extra time to consider the impact of President Trump’s moves after his first day in office. Market gains were broad-based, with health care and industrials leading the sectors. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here advanced, led by the Russell 2000, which gained 1.9%. The Dow moved up 1.2%, followed by the S%P 500 (0.9%), while the NASDAQ and the Global Dow each advanced 0.6%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.57%. Crude oil prices declined 2.3% to close at about $76.09 per barrel. The dollar fell 1.3%, while gold prices rose 0.2%.

Stocks continued to rally last Wednesday. The NASDAQ gained 1.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow rose 0.3%, and the Global Dow edged up 0.1%. The Russell 2000 declined 0.6%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked up to 4.59%. Crude oil prices fell 0.6% to $75.41 per barrel. The dollar index moved up 0.2%, and gold prices climbed 0.3%.

Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains last Thursday, with the S&P 500 (0.5%) reaching its first record high of 2025. The Dow added 0.9%, the Global Dow rose 0.8%, the Russell 2000 advanced 0.5%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed to 4.63%. Crude oil prices fell again, closing at $74.28 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices edged lower.

The rally for stocks stalled last Friday as tech shares struggled. Among the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Global Dow (1.3%) was able to tick higher. The NASDAQ (-0.5%) fell the furthest, while the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 each declined 0.3%. The decline in crude oil prices continued, ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.62%, the dollar slumped, while gold prices rose 0.5%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Sales of existing homes rose 2.2% in December, the strongest pace since February 2024. Year over year, sales increased 9.3%. Total inventory sat at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace. The median existing home price was $404,400 in December, unchanged from the November figure but 6.0% above the December 2023 estimate. Single-family home sales advanced 1.9% in December and were up 10.1% from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $409,300 in December, marginally ahead of the November rate, and up 6.1% from December 2023. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96% as of January 23. That’s down from 7.04% one week ago but up from 6.69% one year ago.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.109 per gallon on January 20, $0.066 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.047 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of January 20, the East Coast price climbed $0.071 to $3.069 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.086 to $2.985 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.026 to $2.691 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.032 to $2.911 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.061 to $3.871 per gallon.
• For the week ended January 18, there were 223,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 11 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 11 was 1,899,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 4 were Rhode Island (3.2%), New Jersey (3.1%), Minnesota (2.7%), Washington (2.5%), Illinois (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), California (2.3%), Connecticut (2.2%), Montana (2.2%), and Pennsylvania (2.2%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 11 were in Michigan (+14,985), California (+12,731), Texas (+11,439), Illinois (+5,634), and Missouri (+4,845), while the largest decreases were in New York (-15,396), Washington (-3,877), Wisconsin (-3,830), Oregon (-2,954), and Minnesota (-2,046).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for the first time this year, when the Committee is expected to keep the federal funds rate range at its current 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will be paying particular attention to any indications from the Fed of future interest rate decreases. An inflation indicator favored by the Fed is the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is out this week for December. Also available is the first iteration of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2024.