Tag: economics

What I’m Watching This Week – 21 April 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close April 17, 2025)

Stocks ended an abbreviated week of trading with mixed results as the U.S. markets closed a day early in observance of Good Friday. Throughout the week, investors weighed trade talks, interest rate uncertainty, and concerns of a global economic retreat. Big tech shares began the week on a positive note as investors hoped a temporary tariff exemption for electronics imports would remain in force. However, the optimism from earlier in the week proved short-lived as tech shares declined, pulled lower by some of the megacaps. By the close of trading, only the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow posted gains among the benchmark indexes listed here. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped lower as three straight days of declines more than offset last Thursday’s gains. Crude oil prices rose nearly 5.0% as sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports stoked fears of increasing global supply constraints.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 4/17Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2240,212.7139,142.23-2.66%-8.00%
NASDAQ19,310.7916,724.4616,286.45-2.62%-15.66%
S&P 5005,881.635,363.365,282.70-1.50%-10.18%
Russell 20002,230.161,860.201,880.621.10%-15.67%
Global Dow4,863.014,780.864,874.441.96%0.24%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.49%4.33%-16 bps-24 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.8799.44-0.43%-8.30%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$61.56$64.394.60%-10.27%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$3,251.50$3,340.702.74%26.61%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • U.S. import prices decreased 0.1% in March following a 0.2% increase in February. The decline in March import prices was the first since September 2024 and was largely attributable to a 2.3% decrease in import fuel prices. Since March 2024, import prices increased 0.9%. Export prices were unchanged in March after rising 0.5% in the previous month. U.S. export prices have not declined on a one-month basis since September 2024. Export prices advanced 2.4% from March 2024 to March 2025.
  • Retail sales rose 1.4% in March after advancing 0.2% in February. From March 2024, retail sales increased 4.6%. Retail trade sales also increased 1.4% from February 2025, and 4.6% from last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were up 8.8% from last year, while nonstore (online) retail sales were up 4.8% from March 2024.
  • According to the Federal Reserve’s report, industrial production decreased 0.3% in March but rose at an annual rate of 5.5% in the first quarter of 2025. The March decline in industrial production was driven by a 5.8% drop in utilities, as temperatures were warmer than is typical for the month. On the other hand, manufacturing rose 0.3% and mining advanced 0.6% last month. Overall, total industrial production in March was 1.3% above its year-earlier level.
  • The number of issued residential building permits rose 1.6% in March but was 0.2% below the March 2024 rate. Single-family building permits in March were 2.0% below the February estimate. Residential housing starts in March were 11.4% below the prior month’s total but were 1.9% higher than the estimate from a year ago. Single-family housing starts in March were 14.2% under the February figure. Residential housing completions in March were 2.1% below the February estimate but 3.9% above the March 2024 figure. Completions of single-family houses in March were 0.9% higher than the February total.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.168 per gallon on April 14, $0.075 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.460 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of April 14, the East Coast price ticked down $0.063 to $3.016 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.095 to $3.008 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.094 to $2.747 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.067 to $3.098 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.053 to $4.267 per gallon.
  • For the week ended April 12, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 5 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 5 was 1,885,000, an increase of 41,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 29 were New Jersey (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.5%), California (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), Illinois (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), New York (1.8%), and Oregon (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 5 were in California (+5,410), Tennessee (+2,665), Oregon (+1,331), Virginia (+1,139), and Florida (+1,105), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-2,955), Iowa (-1,254), New York (-1,085), Kansas (-145), and Arkansas (-134).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Economic reports focus on the real estate sector this week. The March data on sales of both new and existing homes is available. February was a good month for sales of existing homes and new single-family homes. However, mortgage rates have remained elevated, which could impact sales during the spring season.

What I’m Watching This Week – 7 April 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close April 4, 2025)

Wall Street endured its worst week since the Covid crisis as investors shunned risk in response to inflation and recession fears following President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and China’s immediate retaliatory response. Despite a better-than-expected jobs report, comments made last Friday by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who indicated that the economy was in a good place, but the current economic policy raised the risk of higher unemployment and inflation. The downturn in equities was spread among most of the market sectors with the exception of utilities. Consumer discretionary, industrials, communication services, financials, and energy were hit the hardest. Stocks began last week by moving higher on both Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcement. However, the fallout from the more aggressive-than-expected tariff plan was significant last Thursday and Friday. Bond prices rose higher with increased demand, dragging yields on 10-year Treasuries to a nearly six-month low. Crude oil prices dropped to their lowest value since August 2021 as mounting fears over a global economic slowdown raised the prospects of weakening oil demand.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 4/4Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2241,583.9038,314.86-7.86%-9.94%
NASDAQ19,310.7917,322.9915,587.79-10.02%-19.28%
S&P 5005,881.635,580.945,074.08-9.08%-13.73%
Russell 20002,230.162,023.271,827.03-9.70%-18.08%
Global Dow4,863.015,135.734,685.08-8.77%-3.66%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.25%3.98%-27 bps-59 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.44103.96103.12-0.81%-4.91%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$69.14$62.59-9.47%-12.78%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$3,116.50$3,058.70-1.85%15.93%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • March saw employment rise by a better-than-expected 228,000. February’s total was revised down from 151,000 to 117,000, and the January total was lowered by 14,000. With these revisions, employment for January and February combined was 48,000 lower than previously reported. Last month, the total number of employed was 164.0 million, an increase of 201,000 over the February total. In March, the total number of unemployed, at 7.1 million, was virtually unchanged from the prior month. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.2% in March. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024. In March, the labor force participation rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 62.5%, while the employment-population ratio, at 59.9%, was unchanged from the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, changed little in March. The long-term unemployed accounted for 21.3% of all unemployed people. In March, average hourly earnings rose by $0.09, or 0.3%, to $36.00. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. In March, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.2 hours.
  • The manufacturing sector retreated somewhat in March after a strong finish in February. The reduction in factory output was due, in part, to a slowdown in new orders. New hires stalled after four straight months of gains. The drop in production was the first since December 2024. Cost pressures intensified, largely due to the impact of tariffs, with input price inflation rising to its highest level in over two years.
  • Business in the services sector expanded in March, despite operating expenses increasing at an 18-month high. New business rose on the heels of increased customer demand.
  • The number of job openings ticked down in February, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. At 7.6 million, job openings fell by 194,000 in February from January, while the number of hires was little changed at 5.4 million. The number of total separations, at 5.3 million, was also little changed from the prior month.
  • The latest data on the international trade deficit was released on March 6 and was for January. At that time, the international trade in goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion, 34.0% above the December estimate and 96.5% higher than the January 2024 deficit. In January, exports were $3.3 billion, or 1.2% above the December figure. Imports were $36.6 billion, or 10.0% higher than December imports. Since January 2024, exports increased 4.1% and imports advanced 23.1%.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.162 per gallon on March 31, $0.047 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.355 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 31, the East Coast price ticked up $0.031 to $2.992 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.054 to $3.074 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price dipped $0.010 to $2.730 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.068 to $3.111 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.126 to $4.181 per gallon.
  • For the week ended March 29, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 22 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 22 was 1,903,000, an increase of 56,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,970,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 15 were Rhode Island (2.8%), New Jersey (2.7%), California (2.4%), Minnesota (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), Illinois (2.2%), District of Columbia (2.0%), Montana (1.9%), and New York (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 22 were in Kentucky (+915), Oregon (+577), New York (+544), Tennessee (+429), and Missouri (+392), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-4,040), California (-1,826), Texas (-1,774), Mississippi (-1,764), and Pennsylvania (-565).

Eye on the Week Ahead

March inflation data is available this week with the release of the Consumer Price Index. February saw consumer prices tick up 0.2% for the month and 2.8% over the last 12 months.