Tag: fomo

The Markets (as of market close May 30, 2025)

Despite a dip at the end of the week, stocks closed last week higher as investors digested renewed trade tensions with China, while inflation showed signs of cooling. Each of the benchmark indexes ended the week higher, riding solid gains in tech shares. All of the market sectors closed the week with gains, with notable advances in information technology, consumer discretionary, real estate, and financials. Long-term bond yields declined. Crude oil prices fell for the second week in a row. The dollar continued to slip lower, while gold prices fell as traders moved from safety to risk.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP increased 2.4%. Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by increases in investment and exports. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a major component in the calculation of GDP, rose 1.2% in the first quarter, compared to an increase of 4.0% in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, consumer spending on goods ticked up 0.1% (6.2% in the fourth quarter), while spending on services rose 1.7% (3.0% in the fourth quarter).
• According to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income increased 0.8% in April. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.2%. From the preceding month, the PCE price index for April increased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.1%. From April 2024, the PCE price index increased 2.1%, while the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.5%.
• New orders for durable goods, which had increased for four straight months, fell 6.3% in April. Transportation equipment, which declined 17.1%, drove the overall decrease in durable goods orders. Within transportation equipment, commercial aircraft bookings fell 51.5%. Business equipment orders fell 1.3% in April, the largest drop since October 2024. Durable goods orders rose 4.2% since April 2024.
• The international trade in goods deficit was $87.6 billion in April, down $74.6 billion, or 46.0%, from the March estimate. Exports of goods for April were $6.3 billion, or 3.4%, more than March exports. Imports of goods for April were $68.4 billion, or 19.8%, less than March imports.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.160 per gallon on May 26, $0.013 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.417 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of May 26, the East Coast price increased $0.005 to $2.995 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.009 to $3.018 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.060 to $2.726 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.013 to $3.118 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.029 to $4.258 per gallon.
• For the week ended May 24, there were 240,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 17 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 17 was 1,919,000, an increase of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,970,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 10 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Rhode Island (1.9%), District of Columbia (1.8%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Oregon (1.6%), and Puerto Rico (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 17 were in Illinois (+1,162), Missouri (+447), Louisiana (+383), Connecticut (+246), and New York (+234), while the largest decreases were in Virginia (-1,277), Michigan (-1,192), California (-686), Florida (-547), and Massachusetts (-399).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The jobs report for May is out this week. April saw employment increase by 177,000, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month.

The Markets (as of market close May 2, 2025)

Wall Street enjoyed another solid week of gains on the heels of some strong corporate earnings data, a better-than-expected jobs report, and more signs that the White House and China may be open to trade talks. By the close of trading last Friday, the Dow had posted 10 straight sessions of gains, while the S&P 500 enjoyed nine consecutive sessions. Investors have seen signs that the economy is resilient in the face of tariffs, despite the fact that the GDP contracted in the first quarter. Tech shares have played a large part in driving the market higher. Information technology rose about 6.0% last week to lead gains for nearly all of the market sectors, with the exception of energy, which was flat. Crude oil prices declined for the second straight week on fears of sluggish Chinese demand, rising U.S. production, and concerns that OPEC+ will boost supply. The dollar ticked higher for the second week in a row, while bond markets seemed to have responded to concerns that trade policies could still slow the economy, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• There were 177,000 new jobs added in April, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average monthly gain over the 12 months ended in April was 152,000. The change in employment for February was revised down by 15,000, and the change for March was revised down by 43,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined was 58,000 lower than previously reported. In April, employment continued to trend up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined. The number of unemployed, at 7.2 million, rose by less than 100,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio each ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 62.6% and 60.0%, respectively. In April, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 179,000 to 1.7 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.5% of all unemployed people. In April, average hourly earnings rose by $0.06, or 0.2%, to $36.06. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in April.
• The first, or advance, estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product showed economic growth declined 0.3%, the first negative quarter since the first quarter of 2022 and below the consensus of up 0.2%. The decline in GDP was largely attributable to a significant increase in imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, likely due to the anticipation of higher tariffs increasing the cost of imports. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% in the first quarter (4.0% in the fourth quarter), making a lower-than-usual 1.21% contribution to GDP. Government consumption expenditures and gross investment fell 1.4% in the first quarter, likely impacted by cuts in payrolls, services, and other expenditures.
• According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.7% in March following a 0.5% increase in February. Spending on goods rose 0.9%, while spending on services advanced 0.6%. Personal income increased 0.5% in March after increasing 0.7% in the prior month. Disposable (after-tax) personal income also increased 0.5% last month. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation, was unchanged in March. Excluding food and energy, prices also were flat last month. From March 2024, prices rose 2.3%, down from a 2.7% increase for the 12 months ended in February. Prices less food and energy rose 2.6% over the last 12 months, a decrease from the February estimate of 3.0%.
• The number of job openings in March, at 7.2 million, fell by about 280,000 from the February total and was 901,000 under the March 2024 total. In March, the number of hires, at 5.4 million and the number of total separations, at 5.1 million, were little changed from a month earlier. Within separations, the number of layoffs and discharges in March edged down 222,000 to 1.6 million.
• The manufacturing sector expanded marginally in April, according to the latest purchasing managers survey from S&P Global. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) was 50.2 last month, unchanged since March. A minimal increase in new orders was supported by domestic demand, although tariffs resulted in heightened uncertainty and a noticeable drop in new export sales. Confidence in future growth fell to its lowest level since last June, while job losses were recorded for the first time in six months.
• The international trade in goods deficit was $162.0 billion in March, up $14.1 billion from February. Exports of goods were $180.8 billion, $2.2 billion more than February exports. Imports of goods for March were $342.7 billion, $16.3 billion more than February imports. Since March 2024, the goods deficit rose by $69.2 billion.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.133 per gallon on April 28, $0.008 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.520 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of April 28, the East Coast price ticked up $0.004 to $2.987 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.020 to $2.992 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.002 to $2.686 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.004 to $3.134 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.028 to $4.192 per gallon.
• For the week ended April 26, there were 241,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended April 19 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended April 19 was 1,916,000, an increase of 83,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,970,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 12 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Washington (2.2%), Illinois (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Minnesota (1.9%), the District of Columbia (1.8%), New York (1.7%), and Oregon (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 19 were in New Jersey (+2,875), Connecticut (+2,231), Rhode Island (+1,868), Maryland (+452), and Arizona (+450), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-4,613), Texas (-1,896), Oklahoma (-1,336), California (-1,226), and Virginia (-886).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. It is not likely that a rate cut will result from the May meeting, although the consensus is that interest rates will be reduced at least two times before the end of the year.

The Markets (as of market close April 11, 2025)

A late-week rally helped push stocks higher to close a turbulent week on a favorable note. Last week began with stocks mixed as investors tried to gauge President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff policy. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped nearly 20 basis points to 4.20% last Monday, rebounding from the previous week’s six-month low. Stocks retreated last Tuesday following the administration’s threat of a 104% tariff on China, effective the following day. However, investors returned to risk after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on many of his new tariffs. The market enjoyed its best day in several years as the S&P 500 gained 9.5%, the Dow rose 7.9%, and the NASDAQ climbed 12.2%. Wall Street reversed course on Thursday, cutting into most of the prior day’s gains. Investors re-focused their attention on the likelihood of a trade war with China. Typical of the volatile week, stocks rebounded to close out the week as optimism grew over a possible trade deal between the U.S. and China. Market sector performance was mixed, with information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary outperforming, while real estate, financials, and energy lagged.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Inflation trended lower in March, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, which fell 0.1% last month after increasing 0.2% in February. Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 2.4% after increasing 2.8% for the 12 months ended in February. Prices for energy fell 2.4%, largely on the heels of a 6.3% decline in gasoline prices, which offset increases in prices for electricity and natural gas. Prices for food, on the other hand, rose 0.4% in March. Core prices, less food and energy, rose 0.1% last month following a 0.2% increase in February. Core prices rose 2.8% over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase since the period ended March 2021.
• Prices at the wholesale level fell 0.4% in March, according to the Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI increased 0.1% in February. For the 12 months ended in March, the PPI advanced 2.7%. Over 70% of the decrease in wholesale prices in March was traced to a 0.9% decline in prices for goods, which was the largest decrease since October 2023. Gasoline prices fell 11.1% in March, accounting for two-thirds of the decline in prices for goods. Prices for services fell 0.2% last month. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1% in March after increasing 0.4% in each of the previous three months. For the 12 months ended in March, prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.4%.
• The federal government budget deficit was $161 billion in March. Receipts were $368 billion, while expenditures totaled $528 billion. For fiscal year 2025, the deficit sits at $1,307 billion. Total receipts were $2,260 billion. Government outlays were $3,567 billion. Over the same period in the prior fiscal year, the deficit was $1,065 billion. Receipts were $2,188 billion, while expenditures were $3,253 billion.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.243 per gallon on April 7, $0.081 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.348 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of April 7, the East Coast price ticked up $0.087 to $3.079 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.029 to $3.103 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.111 to $2.841 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.054 to $3.165 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.139 to $4.320 per gallon.
• For the week ended April 5, there were 223,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 29 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 29 was 1,850,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 22 were Rhode Island (2.7%), New Jersey (2.6%), California (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Minnesota (2.3%), Washington (2.3%), Illinois (2.1%), District of Columbia (1.9%), New York (1.9%), and Montana (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 29 were in Kentucky (+2,810), Illinois (+1,286), Iowa (+937), Wisconsin (+742), and Ohio (+404), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-765), Pennsylvania (-755), Massachusetts (-603), Arizona (-519), and New Jersey (-436).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The latest data on sales at the retail level is available this week. February saw retail sales tick up 0.2% for the month. Also out this week is the estimate of industrial production for March. Industrial production rose 0.7% in February, while manufacturing output increased 0.9%.

The Markets (first quarter through March 31, 2025)

Wall Street got off to a good start to begin the first quarter of 2025 and continued to rally for much of the quarter. Several of the benchmark indexes reached record highs in January through mid-February. However, U.S. stocks closed the first quarter in a tailspin, unable to keep pace with major global stocks. Following the presidential election, investors began the quarter hopeful that the new administration would encourage economic growth and lasso inflation. However, the Trump administration embarked on an economic policy that threatened or imposed tariffs on goods from major trade partners including Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as the European Union. Throughout March, investors worried about the impact of a trade war, rising inflation, and a potential economic recession. Both the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved little for much of the quarter, however, core prices (excluding volatile food and energy segments) increased on an annual basis, moving farther from the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target rate. In response, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% in February. In this context, U.S. stocks declined in March and for the quarter. The S&P 500 lost nearly 5.0%, while the NASDAQ declined over 10.0%. Among the market sectors, the first quarter saw consumer discretionary fall more than 16.0%, information technology decline about 15.0%, and communication services drop nearly 8.0%. On the other hand, energy outperformed by a large margin, gaining more than 10.0% from the beginning of the year. Rising bond prices weighed on yields, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries closing lower in each month of the quarter as investors sought safety amid escalating trade tensions. The yield on the 2-year note ended the quarter at about 3.92%, a decrease of 28.0 basis points from the beginning of the quarter. By the end of the quarter, nearly 70 S&P 500 companies reported negative earnings per share, which is above the five-year average of 57 and higher than the 10-year average of 62. According to FactSet, the number of companies issuing positive earnings per share is below the five-year average but a tick above the 10-year average.

Gold, considered a safe haven during volatile economic times, had its best quarter since 1986 after rising nearly 20.0% in the first quarter as the potential trade war and economic slowdown sent worried investors scurrying for more stable investments. Crude oil prices fluctuated throughout much of the quarter, ultimately ending up about where they began. Moving forward, a new round of tariffs set to take effect during the first week of April, could heighten fears of a global trade war, which could slow economic growth and curtail demand for energy. The retail price for regular gasoline was $3.115 per gallon on March 24, $0.010 below the price a month earlier but $0.072 more than the price at the beginning of the first quarter. Regular retail gas prices decreased $0.408 from a year ago. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.65% as of March 13. That’s up from 6.63% one week ago but down from 6.74% one year ago

January began the year and the first quarter on a high note. Stocks moved generally higher, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing higher. The S&P 500 gained 2.7%, the NASDAQ climbed 1.6%, and the Dow rose 4.7%. The Federal Reserve met in January and held the key policy rate at 4.25%-4.50% following three consecutive rate cuts. The yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at 4.56% after climbing to 4.80% mid-month. Inflation proved stubborn as both the CPI and the PCE price index increased year over year. Throughout the month, investors tried to digest the plethora of executive orders signed by President Trump. In addition, the administration imposed new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, creating uncertainty around global trade relations. While most of the market sectors closed higher, tech shares took a hit as a new Chinese AI company shook the industry.

Stocks ended February lower, with information technology, consumer discretionary, communications, and industrials underperforming. Bond prices climbed higher, pulling yields lower. The dollar index ticked lower, while gold prices moved modestly higher. Crude oil prices fell nearly 5.0% in February, marking the first monthly loss since November 2024. President Trump’s policies relative to tariffs, immigration, taxes, the Middle East, and the Ukraine/Russia conflict weighed on market sentiment. Mixed economic data and a hotter-than-expected CPI added to concerns of recession and stagflation. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 36.0 basis points.

The market volatility that began in February increased in March. Tariffs, persistent inflation, and the threat of global economic turmoil hit investors hard. Consumer confidence trended lower, notably future expectations, which fell to a 12-year low to a rate that could signal an economic recession. Each of the benchmark indexes declined in value, with the NASDAQ falling more than 8.0%. The energy sector was the only one to close March in the black. The remaining market sectors trended lower, with communication services and information technology underperforming notably. The dollar index declined under the weight of economic uncertainty. Gold prices, on the other hand, reached a record high. Crude oil prices moved higher after President Trump intimated that additional tariffs on Russia could be in the offing, which could lead to supply concerns.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Latest Economic Reports

• Employment: Job growth was slightly below expectations in February, with the addition of 151,000 new jobs after a downward revision of 18,000 new jobs in January, from 143,000 to 125,000. In February, the unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. The number of unemployed persons rose by 203,000 to 7.1 million in February. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was 1.5 million, essentially unchanged from the January figure. These individuals accounted for 20.9% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in February was 62.4%, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. The employment-population ratio also decreased 0.2 percentage point to 59.9% in February. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $35.93 in February. Since February 2024, average hourly earnings rose by 4.0% (4.1% for the 12 months ended in January 2025). The average workweek was unchanged at 34.1 hours in February.
• There were 224,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 22, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,856,000. A year ago, there were 214,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,802,000.
• FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate at the current 4.25%-4.50% following its meeting in March. The projected path of monetary policy points to two interest rate cuts of 25.0 basis points each by the end of 2025.
• GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, accelerated at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter following an increase of 3.1% in the third quarter. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in 2024, compared with an annual increase of 2.9% in 2023. Consumer spending, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 4.0% in the fourth quarter following a 3.7% rise in the third quarter. Spending on services rose 3.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 2.8% increase in the third quarter. Consumer spending on goods increased 6.2% in the fourth quarter (5.6% in the third quarter). Fixed investment declined 1.1% in the fourth quarter after increasing 2.1% in the third quarter. Nonresidential (business) fixed investment declined 3.0% in the fourth quarter after climbing 4.0% in the previous quarter. Residential fixed investment rose 5.5% in the fourth quarter following a 4.3% decrease in the third quarter. Exports fell 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 9.6% increase in the previous quarter. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, decreased 1.9% in the fourth quarter after rising 10.7% in the third quarter.
• February saw the federal budget deficit come in at $307.0 biillion, compared to a deficit of $296.3 billion a year ago. The deficit for the first five months of fiscal year 2025, at $1,147.0 trillion, is well above the $828.0 billion deficit over the first five months of the previous fiscal year. So far in fiscal year 2025, government receipts totaled $1,893.0 trillion, while government outlays totaled $3,039.0 trillion. Through the first five months of fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $959.0 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $631.0 billion.
• Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income rose 0.8% in February, while disposable personal income increased 0.9% last month after both increased 0.7% in January. Consumer spending increased 0.4% in February after decreasing 0.3% the previous month. Consumer prices inched up 0.3% in February for the third straight month. Excluding food and energy (core prices), prices rose 0.4% in February. Consumer prices rose 2.5% for the 12 months ended in February, unchanged from the same period ended in January. Core prices increased 2.8% over the last 12 months. Since February 2024, prices for food rose 1.5%, while energy prices decreased 1.1%.
• The increase in consumer prices slowed in February following a more rapid increase between November 2024 and January 2025. The Consumer Price Index rose by just 0.2% in February after advancing 0.5% in January. Over the 12 months ended in February, the CPI rose 2.8%, 0.2 percentage point below the rate for the 12 months ended in January. Core prices (excluding food and energy) also ticked up 0.2% last month and 3.1% since February 2024. Prices for shelter rose 0.3% in February (and 4.2% for the last 12 months), accounting for nearly half of the February increase. Food prices increased 0.2% last month and 2.6% for the year. Energy prices rose 0.2% in February but declined 0.2% since February 2024. Gasoline prices decreased 1.0% in February and 3.1% over the last 12 months.
• Prices at the wholesale level were flat in February, according to the latest Producer Price Index. Producer prices increased 3.2% for the 12 months ended in February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the estimate for the 12-month period ended in January. Excluding food and energy, producer prices fell 0.1% in February but increased 3.4% for the year. In February, prices for goods rose 0.3% (0.6% in January) and 1.7% since February 2024 (2.3% for the 12 months ended in January). Last month saw prices for services fall 0.2% after advancing 0.6% in January. Prices for services have risen 3.9% for the 12 months ended in February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the increase over the 12 months ended in January.
• Housing: Sales of existing homes increased 4.2% in February but were 1.2% under the February 2024 figure. The median existing-home price was $398,400 in February, above the January estimate of $393,400 and higher than the year-earlier price of $383,800. Unsold inventory of existing homes in February represented a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from the January estimate but above the 3.0-month supply in February 2024. Sales of existing single-family homes increased 5.7% in February but were 0.3% below the estimate from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $402,500 in February ($398,100 in January), above the February 2024 estimate of $388,000.
• New single-family home sales rose 18.9% in February but were 1.8% below the February 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in February was $414,500 ($427,400 in January) down from the February 2024 estimate of $420,900. The February average sales price was $487,100 ($507,900 in January), below the February 2024 average sales price of $509,700. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in February represented a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales pace, slightly lower than the January estimate of 9.0 months but above the 8.7-month supply from a year earlier.
• Manufacturing: Industrial production increased 0.7% in February following a 0.3% advance in January. Manufacturing output gained 0.9% last month after ticking up 0.1% in January. In February, mining increased 2.8%, while utilities fell 2.5%. Over the 12 months ended in February, total industrial production was 1.4% above its year-earlier reading. Since February 2024, manufacturing increased 0.7%, utilities rose 8.7%, while mining was unchanged.
• New orders for durable goods unexpectedly increased 0.9% in February after rising 3.3% in the prior month. For the 12 months ended in February, durable goods orders advanced 2.3%. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.7% in February from the prior month. Excluding defense, new orders advanced 0.8%. Transportation equipment, which increased 1.5% for the second straight month, led the overall increase in new orders in February.
• Imports and exports: Import prices exceeded expectations after rising 0.4% in February, the same increase as in January. Prices for imports rose 2.0% over the last 12 months. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices in February contributed to the overall increase in import prices. Import fuel prices advanced 1.7% in February after increasing 3.5% in January. Import fuel prices rose 2.8% over the past 12 months ended in February. Prices for nonfuel imports edged up 0.3% in February and advanced 2.0% over the last 12 months. Prices for exports rose 0.1% in February, following a 1.3% advance in January. Higher agricultural and nonagricultural export prices each contributed to the increase in February. Export prices rose 2.1% over the past year.
• The international trade in goods deficit in February was $147.9 billion, 4.9% less than the January estimate. Exports of goods for February were 4.1% above January exports. Imports of goods for February were 0.2% less than January imports. Over the 12 months ended in February, the goods deficit grew by about $56.0 billion. Exports rose 2.5%, while imports increased 22.5%.
• The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released March 6, saw the goods and services deficit jump 34.0% in January to $131.1 billion. Exports of goods increased 1.2% to $269.8 billion in January. Imports of goods were $401.2 billion in January, an increase of 10.0% over the December figure. For the 12 months ended in January 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $64.5 billion, or 96.5%, from January 2024. Exports increased $10.6 billion, or 4.1%. Imports increased $75.2 billion, or 23.1%.
• International markets: Global markets trended lower in March as concerns over a trade war dampened the economic outlook and curbed investor sentiment. The German inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in March, the lowest it’s been since November 2024. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its key interest rate in mid-April as inflation data seems to be heading toward the ECB’s 2.0% target. While China’s stock market managed to trend higher last month, that country’s industrial output fell by 3.6% over the last 12 months, marking the steepest decline since May 2023. In March, the STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 5.1%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE declined 3.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 5.7%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index ticked up 0.6%.
• Consumer confidence: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined for a fourth straight month in March after falling 7.2 points to 92.9. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, dropped 3.6 points to 134.5 in March. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, tumbled 9.6 points to 65.2 in March, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the 80 point threshold that usually signals an impending recession.

Eye on the Quarter Ahead

The Federal Reserve does not meet in April, so there will be some time to determine the impact of President Trump’s economic policy and tariffs.