Tag: stocks

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2026)

Wall Street enjoyed a solid month in August, despite periodic volatility. Stocks overcame inflation concerns, a receding labor market, rising Treasury yields, monetary policy uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to post end-of-the-month gains. The markets focused on strong corporate earnings, softening inflation data, and investor optimism surrounding AI. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high in early August, only to slide marginally lower later in the month, but still ahead of its July closing value. The Nasdaq led the indexes as tech shares resumed their dominance. Among the market sectors, financials, information technology, health care, materials, communication services, and consumer discretionary gained ground in August, while utilities, industrials, real estate, and consumer staples declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

August 2026 was a challenging month for the U.S. bond market, defined by rising yields across the curve, pressure on long-term Treasuries, and modestly negative total returns in most fixed income sectors. Bonds mostly reacted to the Federal Reserve rate hold, cooling inflation that remained above the Fed’s target, geopolitical hostilities that influenced oil prices, and the recent trade fallout between the U.S. and Canada.

Inflation in August was middling as headline measures had clearly cooled from the post-pandemic peaks, but the core inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. August price trends neither vaulted higher nor plummeted lower. Instead, inflation remained persistent, showing progress toward the Fed’s target but not enough to prompt a reduction in interest rates.

The U.S. economy in August may best be described as resilient, with moderate growth and solid private demand, yet somewhat stymied by a retreat in hiring. Confidence softened and inflation stayed above target, which kept monetary policy tight. GDP grew at an annualized 1.5% in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1, confirming a slower but still expanding economy. Consumer spending accelerated from the first quarter, an indication that consumers were still spending despite higher interest rates and lingering inflation.

Recent data indicated employment neither expanded nor collapsed. Employment declined, although layoffs and quits were stable and the unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.1% — conditions that indicated a “frozen” labor market. Wages rose 3.2% over the last 12 months, while real earnings ticked down as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the same period rose 3.4%, indicating inflation cut into purchasing power.

According to FactSet, with 97% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 86% beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates, while 77% reported positive revenue above expectations. Through the second quarter, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was 52.0%, which is the highest earnings growth rate reported by the index since the second quarter of 2021. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors reported positive revenue growth with energy, information technology, and communication services delivering double-digit revenue growth.

August 2026 was a tight, high-priced month for crude oil. Prices per barrel held in the mid $80s to low $90s, while U.S. retail gasoline prices pushed above $4.00 per gallon nationally late in the month. Reduced crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, high summer driving demand, and tight domestic fuel inventories supported higher prices. The retail price of regular gasoline was $4.085 per gallon on August 24, $0.011 lower than the price a month earlier but $0.938 higher than the price a year ago. The dollar showed resilience in August, closing the month marginally lower, despite a myriad of domestic economic factors, including a slowing labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. After reaching an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January, gold prices spiraled downward, trading between $3,970-$4,500 per ounce, as renewed Middle East tensions fueled inflation concerns, while hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh strengthened expectations for a September rate hike.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of July 31, 2026.

• Employment: July saw a drop in employment indicating a weakening in the labor market. Employment declined by 23,000 last month after increasing 20,000 (revised) in June. The change in employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from 129,000 to 63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from 57,000 to 20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined was 103,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point in July to 4.1% but was 0.2 percentage point higher than the rate in July 2025. The number of unemployed persons in July was 6.9 million, 178,000 lower than the total from the previous month and 356,000 under the July 2025 figure. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), was 1.8 million in July, 166,000 fewer than the estimate in June. Long-term unemployed accounted for 25.5% of all unemployed people in July. Both the labor force participation rate, at 61.4% and the employment-population ratio, at 58.9%, ticked down 0.1 percentage point from June. In July, average hourly earnings, at $37.62, rose $0.02 from the previous month. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours last month.
• There were 203,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 22, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,778,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, 0.1 percentage point below the rate a year earlier. A year ago, there were 229,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,942,000.
• FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not meet in August.
• GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion slowed somewhat in the second quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.5%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, GDP rose 2.1%. Compared to the first quarter, the decrease in GDP in the second quarter reflected decelerations in private investment (7.9% to 2.7%), exports (10.9% to 4.5%), and government spending (+4.4% to -1.0%). Consumer spending accelerated from 0.5% in the first quarter to 3.4% in the second quarter. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, ticked up 0.7 percentage point to 12.5%.
• July 2026 saw the federal budget register a deficit of $432 billion following June’s $120 billion shortfall. A year earlier, the deficit was $291 billion. In July, receipts totaled $334 billion, while expenditures were $766 billion. Over the 10 months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $1,799 billion, $170 billion under the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same 10 months, individual income taxes, at $2,369 billion, accounted for more than half of the total receipts of $4,485 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $6,284 billion, of which Social Security ($1,384 billion) was the largest outlay.
• Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income rose 0.4% in July, while disposable (after-tax) personal income increased 0.5%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.2%. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased 0.2% in July. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also ticked up 0.2% last month. From July 2025, the PCE price index rose 3.7%, the same advance as for the 12 months ended in June. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3% from July 2025 (3.5% for the year ended in June).
• The Consumer Price Index inched up 0.1% in July and advanced 3.4% over the last 12 months, 0.1 percentage point lower than for the 12 months ended in June. Shelter prices, which accounted for roughly two-thirds of the overall monthly increase, inched up 0.1% in July and 3.2% since July 2025. Food prices rose 0.2% in June and 3.0% over the last 12 months. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in July after being flat in June but rose 2.5% since July 2025. Over the last 12 months, food prices increased 3.0% and energy prices rose 14.7%.
• The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index was unchanged in July after falling 0.1% in June. Producer prices climbed 4.7% over the last 12 months. Prices for services ticked up 0.2% in July. Prices for goods fell 0.7% from the previous month. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 0.2% in July and 4.2% over the year. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% in July after inching up 0.1% in June. For the 12 months ended in July, producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.7%.
• Housing: Existing home sales decreased 1.7% in July but were up 2.4% from a year ago. Inventory of existing homes for sale in July, at a 4.6-month supply, was unchanged from the prior month’s estimate. The median sales price in July was $434,100, down from the June estimate of $442,800 but greater than the July 2025 price of $425,700. Sales of existing single-family homes declined 1.9% in July but rose 0.8% from July 2025. The median sales price for existing single-family homes in July was $440,300, lower than the previous month’s price of $448,800 but higher than the July 2025 price of $432,000.
• The most recent data shows sales of new single-family houses in July 2026 were 10.5% below the June rate and 6.3% under the July 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in July represented a supply of 9.6 months at the current sales rate, higher than the June estimate of 8.5 months and marginally above the July 2025 estimate of 9.2 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in July was $393,800. This was 2.3% below the June price of $403,100 and 0.9% under the July 2025 price of $397,300. The average sales price of new houses sold in July was $508,800. This was 4.1% above the June price of $488,900 and 5.4% above the July 2025 price of $482,800.
• Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.2% in July after increasing 0.3% in June. IP was 1.1% above its year-earlier level. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month and increased 1.2% from a year earlier. In July, mining advanced 0.2%, while utilities grew 0.5%. Mining was up 1.0% from July 2025, while utilities rose 0.7% from last year.
• According to the latest report from the Census Bureau, new orders for durable goods increased $3.6 billion, or 1.1%, in July following a 0.5% June advance. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.3%. Over the last 12 months ended in July, durable goods orders have risen 7.6%.
• Imports and exports: U.S. import prices decreased 0.4% in July following a 0.3% fall in June, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The July decrease in import prices was the largest monthly decline since import prices fell 0.5% in May 2025. Despite the monthly decline, prices for imports increased 5.9% from July 2025. Prices for exports decreased 1.3% in July after falling 0.7% the previous month. Over the 12 months ended in July, export prices increased 8.2%.
• The international trade in goods deficit was $118.8 billion in July, up $17.4 billion, or 17.2%, from June. Exports of goods for July were $199.4 billion, $6.0 billion, or 2.9%, less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $318.2 billion, $11.4 billion, or 3.7%, more than June imports. Since July 2025, exports are up 11.7%, while imports have risen 13.7%.
• The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released August 4, 2026, was for June and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $73.3 billion, a decrease of $4.4 billion, or 5.6%, from the May deficit. June exports were $314.7 billion, $2.9 billion, or 0.9%, less than May exports. June imports were $388.0 billion, $7.3 billion, or 1.8%, less than May imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $189.3 billion, or 33.8%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $198.3 billion, or 11.7%. Imports increased $9.0 billion, or 0.4%.
• International markets: European equity markets ended August 2026 showing moderate strength, although with mixed results. Markets were buoyed by strong corporate earnings and resilient economic growth. Asian markets experienced a more volatile August but ended the month mostly higher. Asian stocks were primarily impacted by artificial intelligence shares, shifting central bank expectations, and geopolitical developments affecting energy markets and investor risk appetite. By the end of August, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ticked up 0.2% for the month; the United Kingdom’s FTSE fell 0.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 4.0%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.6%.
• Consumer confidence: The Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points in August to 89.4 from 90.2 in July. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased by 6.8 points to 121.2 following three consecutive months of decline. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell by 5.8 points to 68.2.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Heading into the autumn season, the U.S. economy experienced moderate growth over the summer. Investors will look to see how the labor market and inflation influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moving forward.

The Markets (as of market close August 28, 2026)

Major U.S. stocks ended the last full week of trading in August modestly higher. Strong AI company earnings boosted tech shares, while the war with Iran, persistent inflation, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve dampened investor enthusiasm for risk. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in his speech at the Jackson Hole Summit, noted that while inflation numbers had been better than expected lately, recent data was not enough to demonstrate sufficient improvement in overall price pressures to warrant softening of the Fed’s current monetary policy. Communication services, financials, information technology, consumer discretionary, and materials led the market sectors. Crude oil prices dipped lower as improving transport through the Strait of Hormuz reduced perceived supply risk.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5% in second-quarter of 2026, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, GDP increased 2.1%. Contributing to the increase in the second-quarter GDP were increases in consumer spending (3.4%), exports (4.5%), and investment (2.7%) that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending (-1.0%). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased 12.5%.
• According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% in July and was up 3.7% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2% in July and 3.3% over the last 12 months. Also, personal income rose 0.4% last month, while disposable (after-tax) income increased 0.5%. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.2% last month.
• The international trade in goods deficit was $118.8 billion in July, up $17.4 billion, or 17.2%, from the June estimate. Exports of goods for July were $199.4 billion, $6.0 billion, or 2.9%, less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $318.2 billion, $11.4 billion, or 3.7%, more than June imports.
• Sales of new single-family houses in July were 10.5% below the June rate and 6.3% below the July 2025 rate. Inventory in July represented a supply of 9.6 months at the current sales rate. The month’s supply was 12.9% above the June 2026 estimate of 8.5 months and 4.3% above the July 2025 estimate of 9.2 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in July was $393,800. This was 2.3% below the June price of $403,100 and was 0.9% below the July 2025 price of $397,300. The average sales price of new houses sold in July 2026 was $508,800. This was 4.1% above the June 2026 price of $488,900 and 5.4% above the July 2025 price of $482,800.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, up four of the last five months, increased $3.6 billion, or 1.1%. This followed a 0.5% June advance. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.3%. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the overall July increase, rising 2.3%. Since July 2025, durable goods orders have risen 7.6%.
• For the week ended August 22, there were 203,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 15 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 15 was 1,778,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 3,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended August 8 were New Jersey (2.6%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Oregon (2.0%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), New York (1.7%), Pennsylvania (1.7%), and Nevada (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 15 were in Kentucky (+518), Ohio (+342), Utah (+74), Alaska (+46), and Puerto Rico (+21), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-2,446), California (-1,432), South Carolina (-1,136), Pennsylvania (-1,077), and Kansas (-990).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.085 per gallon on August 24, $0.036 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.938 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of August 24, the East Coast price increased $0.058 to $3.921 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.004 to $3.934 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.016 to $3.638 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.074 to $4.359 per gallon; and the West Coast price advanced $0.061 to $5.147 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The employment data for August is available this week. July saw payrolls decrease by an estimated 23,000.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); http://www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).

The Markets (as of market close May 15, 2026)

Two hotter-than-expected inflation reports and a lack of progress in negotiations to end the war in Iran created havoc in some corners of the financial markets last week. Oil prices surged again while the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, disrupting the world’s supply of essential crude. The S&P 500 reached record highs on Thursday before tumbling on Friday, but still managed to eke out its seventh straight week of gains. Energy was the top-performing market sector last week, followed by consumer staples, while consumer cyclicals and real estate were the laggards. The small caps of the Russell 2000 snapped their multi-week winning streak. Friday’s global bond market sell-off propelled the yield on long bonds (30-year Treasuries) to its highest level since June of 2007 (5.16%). Yields above 5.0% have been somewhat of a danger zone for borrowing costs in the past. The benchmark 10-year Treasury ended the week at its highest level in more than a year.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April after rising 0.9% in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices have increased 3.8%. Prices excluding food and energy increased 0.4% in April and were up 2.8% over the past 12 months. In April, prices for energy rose 3.8%, accounting for over 40.0% of the overall monthly increase. Shelter prices also increased in April, rising 0.6%. Prices for food rose 0.5% last month.
• Prices at the wholesale level accelerated at the fastest pace since March 2022 after rising 1.4% in April, double the increase from the prior month. Since April 2025, the Producer Price Index has advanced 6.0%, the highest rate since December 2022. In April, prices less food and energy (core prices) rose 1.0%, up from a 0.2% increase in March. Core prices have risen 5.2% since April 2025. Energy price growth, which climbed 10.1% in March, slowed to 7.8% in April. Food prices, which had contracted 0.6% in March, increased 0.2% in April. Nearly 60% of the April increase in producer prices was attributed to a 1.2% advance in prices for services. Prices for goods moved up 2.0%.
• Retail sales advanced 0.5% in April and rose 4.9% over the last 12 months. Retail trade sales were up 0.5% from March 2026 and increased 5.2% from a year ago. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 11.1% from last year, while food services and drinking places sales advanced 2.7% from April 2025.
• U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in April following a 0.9% rise in March. Prices for U.S. imports increased 4.2% from April 2025. The 12-month rise in U.S. import prices was the largest one-year advance since the year ended October 2022, when prices increased 4.2%. Import prices for fuels and lubricants increased 16.3% in April, which was the largest monthly advance since March 2022, when prices rose 17.8%. Import prices excluding fuel increased 0.8% in April. Prices for U.S. exports advanced 3.3% in April after rising 1.5% the previous month. Export prices rose 8.8% over the 12-month period ended April 2026, which was the largest 12-month rise in export prices since the year ended September 2022, when export prices rose 9.8%.
• Industrial production increased 0.7% in April after decreasing 0.3% in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6%, mining ticked down 0.1%, and utilities moved up 1.9%. Total industrial production in April was 1.4% above its year-earlier level.
• The federal government had a surplus of $215 billion in April, which saw large individual tax deposits resulting in budget receipts of $837 billion. April expenditures totaled $622 billion. Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $954 billion. Over the same period last fiscal year, the deficit was $1,049 billion.
• Sales of existing homes rose 0.2% in April and were unchanged from April 2025. Inventory of existing homes for sale in April represented a supply of 4.4 months, up from 4.2 months in March and slightly ahead of the 4.3-month supply from one year ago. The median existing-home price, at $417,700, increased 2.1% from the March figure ($409,100) and was up 0.9% from one year ago ($414,000). There was no change in the sales of existing single-family homes in April. However, sales were down 0.3% from a year ago. The median sales price for existing single-family homes was $422,300, 2.1% higher than the March estimate ($413,300) and 1.0% above the April 2025 price of $418,000.
• For the week ended May 9, there were 211,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 2 was 1.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate, which was revised down by 0.1 percentage point. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 2 was 1,782,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended April 25 were Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), Oregon (1.8%), New York (1.7%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), Minnesota (1.5%), and Puerto Rico (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 2 were in California (+2,144), Michigan (+1,696), Texas (+682), New Hampshire (+546), and New Jersey (+438), while the largest decreases were in Rhode Island (-1,831), New York (-776), Connecticut (-643), Arizona (-602), and Vermont (-404).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.500 per gallon on May 11, $0.048 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $1.380 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of May 11, the East Coast price increased $0.085 to $4.336 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.006 to $4.405 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price advanced $0.051 to $3.953 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.013 to $4.372 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.030 to $5.613 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The primary economic release of note this week focuses on housing starts and permits.

The Markets (as of market close February 20, 2026)

U.S. equities spent most of last week trending lower, ultimately rebounding in a major way last Friday to close the week higher. Investors were in a “risk-off” mode as inflation rose while economic growth slowed notably. However, Wall Street reacted favorably to Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs. The S&P 500 surged to a one-week high, closing above 6,900, while the Dow pushed past 49,600. The tech-heavy NASDAQ snapped a five-week losing streak. Several market sectors gained more than 2.0% for the week, including industrials, communication services, and utilities. Consumer staples was the only market sector to end last week lower. Last week also proved to be dynamic for fixed income, with Treasury yields breaking their recent downtrends and moving slightly higher as investors had to digest the Supreme Court ruling, sluggish economic data, and geopolitical tensions.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The initial estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4%, which was below the third-quarter growth rate of 4.4%. Personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending) rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter compared to a 3.5% increase in the third quarter. The drop in consumer spending was largely attributable to a decrease in goods, which declined from an increase of 3.0% in the third quarter to a decrease of 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending on services dipped 0.2 percentage point to 3.4%. Government spending, exports, and imports also contracted in the fourth quarter, with the decline in goods imports likely attributable to tariffs.
• According to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income rose 0.3% in December 2025. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, increased 0.4%. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from November 2025. Prices excluding food and energy also advanced 0.4% in December. Since December 2024, consumer prices have risen 2.9%. Prices excluding food and energy rose 3.0% over the same 12-month period.
• The latest information on the international trade in goods and services trade deficit, released February 19, was for December and showed the deficit grew 32.6%, or $17.3 billion, to $70.3 billion. The trade deficit had been volatile throughout 2025, largely due to shifting tariff announcements from the White House. December exports were $287.3 billion, $5.0 billion, or 1.7%, less than November exports. December imports were $357.6 billion, $12.3 billion, or 3.6%, more than November imports. For 2025, the goods and services deficit decreased $2.1 billion, or 0.2%, from 2024. Exports increased $199.8 billion, or 6.2%. Imports increased $197.8 billion, or 4.8%.
• The international trade in goods deficit expanded by $15.8 billion to $98.5 billion in December. Exports of goods for December were $180.0 billion, $5.6 billion, or 3.0%, less than November exports. Imports of goods for December were $278.6 billion, $10.2 billion, or 3.8%, more than November imports.
• According to the latest information from the Census Bureau, the number of residential building permits issued in December was 4.3% above the November rate but 2.2% below the December 2024 estimate. Permits for single-family homes in December were 1.7% below the prior month’s rate. The number of housing starts was 6.2% above the November estimate but 7.3% under the rate from a year earlier. Housing completions in December were 2.3% above the revised November estimate but 0.1% below the December 2024 rate. Single-family housing completions in December were 0.1% below the November rate.
• Sales of new single-family houses in December 2025 were 1.7% below the November 2025 rate but 3.8% above the December 2024 estimate. The estimated number of new homes sold in 2025 was 1.1% below the 2024 figure. The number of new homes for sale in December represented a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate, which was 1.3% below the November 2025 estimate and 7.3% under the December 2024 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2025 was $414,400. This was 4.2% above the November 2025 price of $397,600 but 2.0% below the December 2024 price of $423,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in December 2025 was $532,600. This was 0.5% above the November 2025 price of $530,200 and 4.7% higher than the December 2024 price of $508,900.
• New orders for durable goods declined 1.4% in December from the previous month’s estimate but were 7.8% above the December 2024 rate. New orders, excluding transportation, ticked up 0.9% in December. Excluding defense, new orders fell 2.5% in December.
• Industrial production increased 0.7% in January after moving up 0.2% in December. In January, manufacturing output advanced 0.6%, mining decreased 0.2%, while utilities moved up 2.1%. Since January 2025, industrial production has grown 2.3%, manufacturing increased 2.4%, mining rose 2.5%, and utilities advanced 1.1%.
• For the week ended February 14, there were 206,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 7 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 7 was 1,869,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 31 were Rhode Island (3.0%), New Jersey (2.9%), Massachusetts (2.7%), Minnesota (2.6%), Washington (2.6%), Illinois (2.2%), Montana (2.2%), New York (2.2%), California (2.1%), and Pennsylvania (2.1%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 7 were in Texas (+2,592), Virginia (+1,909), California (+1,362), Tennessee (+924), and Kentucky (+838), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-3,181), Missouri (-2,755), Illinois (-2,371), Wisconsin (-1,946), and Michigan (-1,771).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.924 per gallon on February 16, $0.022 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.224 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 16, the East Coast price increased $0.011 to $2.833 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.005 to $2.683 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.006 to $2.482 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.068 to $2.737 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.107 to $4.045 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The January data on durable goods orders is out this week, along with the advance report on international trade in goods. The end of the week brings with it the release of the Producer Price Index for January. December saw producer prices increase by 0.5%, while prices rose 3.0% over the last 12 months.

The Markets (as of market close November 28, 2025)

Wall Street experienced a strong Thanksgiving week, largely erasing losses from the preceding volatile period. Increasing hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month helped fuel the rally. After a shaky few weeks, tech stocks surged last week, driving the NASDAQ to its largest weekly gain in quite some time. As more economic data is released following the reopening of the federal government, investors are able to get a better grasp on the state of the economy. For instance, initial job claims fell, while durable goods orders and retail sales rose. However, producer prices also advanced, further evidence of escalating inflationary pressures. Each market sector ended last week with gains, led by consumer discretionary, communication services, materials, and information technology. The yield on 10-year Treasuries continued to slip as growing expectations of a rate cut help push bond prices higher, weighing on yields. Oversupply continued to drag crude oil prices lower.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Retail and food services sales rose 0.2% in September from the previous month and 4.3% from September 2024. Retail trade sales were up 0.1% in September and 3.9% from September 2024. Nonstore (online) retailer sales declined 0.7% in September but rose 6.0% from last year, while food service and drinking places sales were up 0.7% in September and 6.7% from September 2024.
• The Producer Price Index increased 0.3% in September after falling 0.1% in August. Since September 2024, producer prices have increased 2.7%. In September, producer prices for goods rose 0.9%, while prices for services were unchanged from the prior month. Energy prices rose 3.5% in September, while prices for foods advanced 1.1%. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1% in September after rising 0.3% in August. For the 12 months ended in September, prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.9%.
• October, the first month of fiscal year 2026, saw the federal deficit come in at $284 billion, following a September surplus of $198 billion. Government receipts totaled $404 billion, while outlays were $689 billion. Nearly 54% of October receipts was attributable to income tax receipts ($217 billion), while custom duties (tariffs) totaled $31 billion. Medicare ($151 billion) and Social Security payments ($134 billion) accounted for over 41% of the October government expenditures.
• New orders for long-lasting durable goods increased 0.5% In September. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6%. Excluding defense, new orders ticked up 0.1%. Transportation equipment, up two consecutive months, led the September increase, rising 0.4%. Over the 12 months ended in September, new orders for durable goods rose 7.3%.
• For the week ended November 22, there were 216,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 15 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 15 was 1,960,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 21,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 8 were New Jersey (2.3%), Washington (2.2%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), California (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Alaska (1.7%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), Oregon (1.7%), and Rhode Island (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 15 were in Kentucky (+589), Minnesota (+351), Wisconsin (+211), Delaware (+199), and Texas (+99), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-5,290), New Jersey (-2,381), California (-2,287), Illinois (-962), and Georgia (-857).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.061 per gallon on November 24, $0.001 per gallon less than the prior week’s price and $0.017 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of November 24, the East Coast price increased $0.032 to $2.985 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.049 to $2.858 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched up $0.043 to $2.643 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.077 to $2.872 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.050 to $4.070 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Slowly but surely, some important economic reports are being made available. However, most of the data that has been released thus far is for September.