Tag: Investing

What I’m Watching This Week – 25 March 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close March 22, 2024)

Despite a dip last Friday, stocks closed out last week higher. The S&P 500 recorded its biggest weekly percentage gain of the year, while the Dow and the Nasdaq hit record highs. Investors gained a bit of encouragement after the Federal Reserve maintained projections for three interest rate cuts by year’s end. Each of the market sectors moved higher last week, with communication services and industrials gaining 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Both the dollar and gold prices advanced. Crude oil prices declined for the week, influenced by a rising dollar (since oil is priced in dollars, if the dollar goes up, oil prices generally go down, because you need fewer dollars to buy that oil).

Wall Street got off to a good start last week, led by tech and AI stocks. The Nasdaq rose 0.8%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.6%), the Global Dow (0.3%), and the Dow (0.2%). The small caps of the Russell 2000 fell 0.7%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose 3.6 basis points to 4.34%. Crude oil prices jumped $1.87 to settle at about $82.91 per barrel, the highest level since October. Reduced crude exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, along with rising demand, helped drive crude oil prices higher. The dollar and gold prices inched up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

Stocks advanced for a second straight session last Tuesday as investors awaited the results of the Federal Reserve meeting. While it is widely anticipated that the Fed will maintain interest rates at their current level, attention will be focused on the projected frequency and timing of potential rate cuts. The Dow (0.8%) led the benchmark indexes, followed by the S&P 500 (0.6%), the Russell 2000 (0.5%), the Nasdaq (0.4%), and the Global Dow (0.3%). Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.29% after falling 4.3 basis points. Crude oil prices continued to surge, rising $0.75 to $83.47 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.2%, while gold prices dipped 0.2%.

Wall Street rallied last Wednesday as investors were cautiously encouraged by the Federal Reserve’s projections of three interest rate cuts this year. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.9%, the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, the Dow climbed 1.0%, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the Global Dow increased 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped 2.4 basis points, settling at 4.27%. Crude oil prices saw the end to a rally as prices fell $1.63 to $81.84 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.4%, while gold prices rose 1.4%.

Stocks continued to climb higher last Thursday, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here advancing. The Russell 2000 led the charge for the second straight session after increasing 1.1%, followed by the Global Dow (0.8%), the Dow (0.7%), the S&P 500 (0.3%), and the Nasdaq (0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields moved minimally, closing at 4.27%. Crude oil prices dipped for the second consecutive day, settling at $80.90 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.6%, while gold prices rose 1.1%.

Equities closed generally lower last Friday, with only the Nasdaq finishing the session up after gaining 0.2% to reach a record high. The Russell 2000 lost 1.3%, followed by the Dow (-0.8%), the Global Dow (-0.3%), and the S&P 500 (-0.1%). Crude oil prices fell for the third straight session, dipping 0.31%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 5.3 basis points to 4.21%. The dollar advanced 0.4%, while gold prices were flat.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 3/22Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5438,714.7739,475.901.97%4.74%
Nasdaq15,011.3515,973.1716,428.822.85%9.44%
S&P 5004,769.835,117.095,234.182.29%9.74%
Russell 20002,027.072,039.322,072.001.60%2.22%
Global Dow4,355.284,572.844,645.331.59%6.66%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.30%4.21%-9 bps35 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39103.43104.420.96%2.99%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$81.00$80.88-0.15%13.44%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,161.20$2,168.100.32%4.61%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The Federal Open Market Committee maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. In its statement, the FOMC indicated that, “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2.0%.” During his press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that an interest rate cut is not on the immediate horizon. As to the increase in prices over the past few months, Powell said that the Committee anticipated that the path of lowering inflation may be bumpy. However, the FOMC is looking at the performance of inflation over time, not just a few months. The Fed retained its forecast for three rate cuts this year.
  • February saw sales of existing homes jump 9.5%, although sales declined 3.3% year over year. Additional supply and consistent demand have helped drive sales throughout the country. Unsold inventory sat at a 2.9-month supply in February, down from 3.0 months in January. The median existing-home sales price was $384,500 in February, up from $378,600 in January, and well above the February 2023 price of $363,600. Existing single-family home sales also grew in February, up 10.3% but down 2.7% from a year earlier. The median price for existing single-family homes was $388,700, higher than the January price of $382,900, and over the February 2023 price of $368,100.
  • The number of residential building permits issued in February was 1.9% above the January rate. The number of single-family building permits issued in February increased 1.0%. The number of housing starts in February rose 10.7% above the January estimate, while single-family housing starts increased 11.6%. Housing completions in February rose 19.7% over January. Single-family housing completions advanced 20.2% last month.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.453 per gallon on March 18, $0.077 per gallon more than the prior week’s price and $0.031 per gallon more than a year ago. Also, as of March 18, the East Coast price increased $0.084 to $3.349 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.022 to $3.309 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.154 to $3.099 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.089 to $3.166 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.084 to $4.380 per gallon.
  • For the week ended March 16, there were 210,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 3,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 9 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 9 was 1,807,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 2 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.7%), California (2.5%), Minnesota (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Illinois (2.2%), Montana (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), Alaska (1.9%), Connecticut (1.9%), and Washington (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 9 were in Oregon (+2,216), California (+462), Indiana (+427), Texas (+392), and Nevada (+342), while the largest decreases were in New York (-14,583), Ohio (-1,453), New Hampshire (-446), Massachusetts (-305), and Vermont (-289).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The last week of March brings with it the final estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the second estimate, the economy accelerated at an annualized rate of 3.2%. Also out this week is the February report on personal income and expenditures, which includes the personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve. With other indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index, showing that inflation rose in February, it is expected the PCE price index will also show in increase consumer prices.

What I’m Watching This Week – 11 March 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close March 8, 2024)

Wall Street fell from record highs to close generally lower last week. A better-than-expected jobs report (see below) helped support the notion that the economy remains strong and that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates, possibly after their June meeting. However, the unemployment rate ticked up for the first time in four months. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the decline in the benchmark indexes for the week, with only the Global Dow and the Russell 2000 closing higher. Crude oil prices posted a weekly loss as China’s demand waned. Gold prices rallied to their largest weekly increase in five months, driven higher by optimism of mid-year interest rate cuts.

Stocks closed last Monday in the red. After reaching record highs the prior week, both the Nasdaq (-0.4%) and the S&P 500 (-0.1%) fell. The Dow lost 0.3%, while the Russell 2000 slipped 0.1%. The Global Dow was flat. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up to 4.21%. Crude oil prices settled at about $78.72 per barrel after declining $1.25. The dollar ended the session where it began, while gold prices added 1.4%.

Wall Street saw equities extend their losses last Tuesday, driven by a widespread sell-off of tech shares. The Nasdaq fell 1.7% to lead the downturn, followed by the Russell 2000, Dow, and the S&P 500 (-1.0%). The Global Dow dipped 0.3%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell 8.2 basis points to 4.13%. Crude oil prices also continued to decline, falling to $78.14 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices rose 0.5%.

Last Wednesday saw stocks rebound after Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained his stance that interest rates are likely to be cut sometime this year. The Russell 2000 and the Global Dow gained 0.7%, followed by the Nasdaq (0.6%), the S&P 500 (0.5%), and the Dow (0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields slipped 3.3 basis points to close at 4.10%. Crude oil prices gained nearly $1.00 to settle at $79.13 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.4%, while gold prices rose 0.6%.

Stocks advanced for the second straight day last Thursday, with both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hitting new record highs. Tech shares fueled much of the rally, particularly AI stocks. By the close of trading, the Nasdaq rose 1.5%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.0%, the Russell 2000 gained 0.8%, the Global Dow advanced 0.7%, and the Dow increased 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked lower to close at 4.09%. Crude oil prices closed at $78.89 per barrel. The dollar continued to slide, falling 0.5%. Gold prices advanced for the fourth straight day.

Last Friday’s volatile session saw stocks finish lower as a rally in chip stocks lost steam. Each of the benchmark indexes finished the session lower, with the Nasdaq falling the furthest (-2.3%), followed by the S&P 500 (-0.7%), the Dow (-0.2%), and the Russell 2000 (-0.1%). the Global Dow ended the session where it began. Ten-year Treasury yields were flat, while crude oil prices slipped 1.4%. The dollar lost less than 0.1%, while gold prices rose 0.9%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 3/8Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5439,087.3838,722.69-0.93%2.74%
Nasdaq15,011.3516,274.9416,085.11-1.17%7.15%
S&P 5004,769.835,137.085,123.69-0.26%7.42%
Russell 20002,027.072,076.392,082.710.30%2.74%
Global Dow4,355.284,539.464,592.171.16%5.44%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.18%4.08%-10 bps22 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39103.88102.75-1.09%1.34%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$79.80$77.88-2.41%9.23%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,092.40$2,184.804.42%5.42%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Employment rose by 275,000 in February. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. The change in employment for December was revised down by 43,000, and the change for January was revised down by 124,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined was 167,000 lower than previously reported. In February, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9%, and the number of unemployed people increased by 334,000 to 6.5 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 3.6%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million. In February, the labor force participation rate was 62.5% for the third consecutive month, while the employment-population ratio decreased 0.1 percentage point to 60.1%. In February, average hourly earnings edged up by $0.05 to $34.57, following an increase of $0.18 in January. Average hourly earnings were up by 0.1% in February and 4.3% over the last 12 months. In February, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours, following a decline of 0.2 hour in January.
  • According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the number of job openings in January, at 8.9 million, was little changed from the previous month. The total number of hires, at 5.7 million, fell by 100,000, while total separations, at 5.3 million, decreased by 78,000.
  • Purchasing manager survey respondents noted a solid performance in February, according to the latest purchasing managers’ index from S&P Global. Output rose for the 13th consecutive month, while new business rose for the fourth straight month in February. Costs to service providers eased to the slowest pace since October 2020.
  • The international trade in goods and services deficit in January was $67.4 billion, up $3.3 billion, or 5.1% from the December deficit. January exports were $257.2 billion, $0.3 billion, or 0.1% more than December exports. January imports were $324.6 billion, $3.6 billion, or 1.1% more than December imports. Since January 2023, the goods and services deficit decreased $2.9 billion, or 4.1%. Exports decreased $1.0 billion, or 0.4%, while imports fell $3.9 billion, or 1.2%.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.350 per gallon on March 4, $0.101 per gallon more than the prior week’s price but $0.039 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 4, the East Coast price increased $0.036 to $3.240 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.171 to $3.269 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price climbed $0.104 to $2.949 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.032 to $3.014 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.147 to $4.229 per gallon.
  • For the week ended March 2, there were 217,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 24 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 24 was 1,906,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 17 were New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.7%), Minnesota (2.5%), California (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Illinois (2.2%), Montana (2.1%), Alaska (2.0%), New York (2.0%), and Pennsylvania (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 24 were in Massachusetts (+4,032), Rhode Island (+1,936), Connecticut (+429), California (+311), and Missouri (+310), while the largest decreases were in Oklahoma (-1,943), Texas (-1,121), Michigan (-980), Oregon (-823), and Florida (-752).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data for February is available this week with the Consumer Price Index, import and export prices, and the Producer Price Index. January saw prices increase across the board, although 12-month data showed prices either decreased or were unchanged.

What I’m Watching This Week – 4 March 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close March 1, 2024)

Wall Street continued its February rally into March as stocks closed last week notably higher with the exception of the Dow, which ticked lower. Investor enthusiasm about tech shares, particularly AI stocks, helped drive the upturn. Inflation data also was positive. While consumer prices ticked up in January, the 12-month rate actually declined, lessening concerns that the Federal Reserve would delay interest rate cuts beyond this year. Information technology led the market sectors, with real estate and consumer discretionary also moving higher. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell as bond prices advanced. Crude oil prices ended the week higher. The dollar slipped lower, while an end-of-week rally helped drive gold prices up.

Last Monday saw stocks step back from the prior week’s record highs as investors awaited the latest inflation data. Among the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Russell 2000 gained, finishing the session up 0.7%. The remaining indexes closed the day in the red, with the S&P 500 falling 0.4%, while the Global Dow dropped 0.3%. the Dow and the Nasdaq dipped about 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up to 4.29% after gaining 3.9 basis points. Crude oil prices rose $1.17 to $77.66 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices declined.

Stocks were mixed last Tuesday, with the Russell 2000 (1.4%) extending gains from the previous session. The Nasdaq advanced 0.4%, the Global Dow rose 0.3%, and the S&P 500 ticked up 0.2%. The Dow dipped 0.3%. Crude oil prices rose to $78.65 per barrel after gaining $1.07 due to supply concerns and a stronger U.S. demand. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.31%. The dollar and gold prices were flat.

Wall Street saw stocks slip lower last Wednesday as investors were a bit apprehensive ahead of the upcoming inflation report. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the session lower, with the Russell 2000 falling the furthest (-0.8%), followed by the Nasdaq (-0.6%), the Global Dow (-0.3%), and the Dow (-0.1%). Ten-year Treasury yields dipped 4.1 basis points to 4.27%. Crude oil prices declined $0.45 to $78.42 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices were flat.

Stocks closed higher last Thursday as investors gained some relief that the latest price inflation data matched expectations. The Nasdaq gained 0.9% to reach an all-time high. The Russell 2000 added 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while the Dow and the Global Dow inched up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.25%. Crude oil prices settled at $78.25 per barrel after falling $0.29. The dollar and gold prices closed higher.

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reached new record highs last Friday. The Nasdaq gained 1.1% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Russell 2000 (1.0%), the S&P 500 (0.8%), the Global Dow (0.6%), and the Dow (0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields fell 7.2 basis points to end the day at 4.18%. The dollar dipped lower while gold prices rose 1.8%. Crude oil prices gained $1.47 to reach $79.80 per barrel.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 3/1Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5439,131.5339,087.38-0.11%3.71%
Nasdaq15,011.3515,996.8216,274.941.74%8.42%
S&P 5004,769.835,088.805,137.080.95%7.70%
Russell 20002,027.072,016.692,076.392.96%2.43%
Global Dow4,355.284,515.134,539.460.54%4.23%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.26%4.18%-8 bps32 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39103.96103.88-0.08%2.46%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$76.56$79.804.23%11.92%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,045.30$2,092.402.30%0.96%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the second estimate. In the third quarter, GDP increased 4.9%. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and slowdowns in federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, decelerated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.8%, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1%, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.0% in the fourth quarter, compared to a 3.1% advance in the third quarter.
  • Personal income rose 1.0% in January, while consumer spending inched up 0.2%, down from December’s 0.7% increase. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a noted measure of inflation, rose 0.3% in January after ticking up 0.1% (revised) in December. However, the 12-month rate rose 2.4%, down from 2.6% for the year ended in December, and closer to the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2.0% inflation. Core prices, less food and energy, advanced 0.4% in January (0.1% in December) and 2.8% for the year ended in January (2.9% for the 12 months ended in December).
  • Sales of new single-family homes rose 1.5% in January, a pace that was slightly below expectations. Since January 2023, sales rose 1.8%. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in January was $420,700 ($413,100 in December). The average sales price was $534,300 ($493,400 in December). Inventory of homes for sale stood at an 8.3-month supply in January, the same as in December.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 6.1% in January, marking the third monthly decline out of the last four months. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.3%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, falling 16.2%.
  • The international trade in goods deficit was $90.2 billion in January, up $2.3 billion, or 2.6%, from $87.9 billion in December. Exports of goods for January were $170.4 billion, $0.4 billion, or 0.2%, more than December exports. Imports of goods for January were $260.6 billion, $2.7 billion, or 1.1%, more than December imports.
  • Manufacturing accelerated in February for the second straight month, according to the S&P survey of purchasing managers. The February S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ was 52.2, up from 50.7 in January. The February reading marked the strongest improvement in operating conditions in the manufacturing sector since July 2022. New orders grew at the fastest pace in 21 months, while export orders expanded for the first time in three months. Overall, total sales rose at the sharpest pace since May 2022.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.249 per gallon on February 26, $0.020 per gallon less than the prior week’s price and $0.093 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 26, the East Coast price decreased $0.026 to $3.204 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.024 to $3.098 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.056 to $2.845 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.060 to $2.982 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.025 to $4.082 per gallon.
  • For the week ended February 24, there were 215,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 17 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 17 was 1,905,000, an increase of 45,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 2,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 10 were New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.7%), Minnesota (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.4%), California (2.3%), Illinois (2.3%), Montana (2.1%), Alaska (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), and Washington (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 17 were in Oklahoma (+1,802), Ohio (+915), Tennessee (+490), Iowa (+387), and the District of Columbia (+198), while the largest decreases were in California (-8,980), Kentucky (-3,671), Michigan (-1,905), New York (-1,643), and Illinois (-1,431).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The employment sector is front and center this week with the releases of the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the employment situation. The numbers of job openings, hires and separations have been relatively consistent over the past few months and are expected to stay in line with recent trends. On the other hand, employment rose by an unexpectedly high 353,000 in January, which, when coupled with upward revisions for November and December, shows the employment sector has remained strong.

What I’m Watching This Week – 26 February 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close February 23, 2024)

Stocks advanced last week, driven higher by tech shares that were bolstered by favorable corporate earnings reports. The Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 posted weekly gains for the 16th time out of the last 18 trading weeks. Among the benchmark indexes listed here, only the small caps of the Russell 2000 closed the week in the red. Each of the 11 market sectors ended the week higher, led by consumer staples, materials, and health care. Bond prices ticked higher, pulling yields lower, with 10-year Treasuries slipping 3.0 basis points. The dollar slipped lower, while gold prices advanced. Crude oil prices fell over $3.00 per barrel.

Wall Street opened last Tuesday lower, dragged down by underperforming megacap technology stocks. The Russell 2000 fell 1.4%, followed by the Nasdaq (-0.9%), the S&P 500 (-0.6%), and the Dow (-0.2%), while the Global Dow was flat. Yields on 10-year Treasuries ticked lower to 4.27%. Crude oil prices edged down $0.92 to $78.27 per barrel. The dollar dipped to its lowest level in about two weeks. Gold prices advanced 0.6%.

Stocks got off to a slow start last Wednesday but were able to pare some of their early losses by the end of trading. The Dow, the Global Dow, and the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1%, while the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) and the Nasdaq (-0.3%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields gained 5.0 basis points to reach 4.32%. Crude oil prices added $1.02 to close at about $78.06 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices declined.

Last Thursday saw an upbeat earnings report from a chip-making giant help drive stocks higher. The better-than-expected earnings results spurred investor optimism enough to drive both the S&P 500 (2.1%) and the Dow (1.2%) to new record highs, while the Nasdaq gained nearly 3.0%. The Global Dow advanced 1.1% and the Russell 2000 added 1.0% to round out the benchmark indexes listed here. The yield on 10-year Treasuries moved little, ending the session where it started at 4.32%. Crude oil prices gained nearly $0.50 to close at $78.38 per barrel. Gold prices and the dollar ended marginally lower.

Stocks were mixed last Friday, with the Global Dow (0.3%) gaining the most, while the Dow and the Russell 2000 inched up 0.2%. The S&P 500 ended the day flat. The tech-heavy Nasdaq couldn’t maintain the previous day’s momentum, sliding 0.3% by the close of trading. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 6.7 basis points to 4.26%. Crude oil prices dropped $2.00 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices rose 0.8%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 2/23Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5438,627.9939,131.531.30%3.83%
Nasdaq15,011.3515,775.6515,996.821.40%6.56%
S&P 5004,769.835,005.575,088.801.66%6.69%
Russell 20002,027.072,032.742,016.69-0.79%-0.51%
Global Dow4,355.284,443.564,515.131.61%3.67%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.29%4.26%-3 bps40 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39104.28103.96-0.31%2.53%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$79.25$76.56-3.39%7.38%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,025.30$2,045.300.99%-1.31%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Existing-home sales grew by 3.1% in January, with sales accelerating in the Midwest, South, and West, while remaining steady in the Northeast. Despite the recent increase, sales were 1.7% under the January 2023 pace. Total housing inventory in January represented a 3.0-month supply, down slightly from the 3.1-month supply in December. The median existing-home price was $379,100 in January, down from $381,400 in December, but up from the January 2023 price of $360,800. Sales of single-family existing homes rose 3.4% last month but were 1.4% under the total from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $383,500 in January, down from December’s $385,800, but well above the January 2023 price of $365,400.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.269 per gallon on February 19, $0.077 per gallon higher than the prior week’s price but $0.110 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 19, the East Coast price increased $0.079 to $3.230 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.078 to $3.122 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.094 to $2.901 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price advanced $0.131 to $2.922 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.046 to $4.057 per gallon.
  • For the week ended February 17, there were 201,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 10 was 1.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 10 was 1,862,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 3 were New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.7%), California (2.5%), Minnesota (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.4%), Illinois (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Montana (2.1%), Connecticut (2.0%), New York (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), and Washington (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 10 were in Kentucky (+3,264), California (+2,053), Nevada (+364), Maryland (+290), and Washington (+91), while the largest decreases were in Missouri (-3,519), Pennsylvania (-1,477), Texas (-1,431), Illinois (-1,213), and Oregon (-941).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week is loaded with important, market-moving economic information. The second estimate of the fourth-quarter gross domestic product is available. The initial release had the economy accelerating at an annualized rate of 3.3%. The January report on personal income and outlays is also out at the end of this week. Most investors will be focused on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve. Prices advanced 0.2% in December. However, January has seen other inflation indicators accelerate at a rate higher than expected, so it is likely the same will hold true for the PCE price index.

What I’m Watching This Week – 5 February 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close February 2, 2024)

A strong labor report and solid earnings data from megatech companies helped drive stocks higher last week. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains with the exception of the Russell 2000. Nine of the 11 market sectors advanced last week, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and health care, while real estate and energy declined. Ten-year Treasury yields trended lower for most of the week, only to vault higher on Friday. Crude oil prices, which had been surging, fell last week as continued unrest in the Middle East has irritated oil markets. The dollar inched higher, while gold prices advanced.

The S&P 500 (0.8%) and the Dow (0.6%) reached new record highs to kick off the week ahead of several key earnings reports. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.1% to reach a 52-week high. The Russell 2000 gained 1.6% and the Global Dow rose 0.5% as investors were bullish on stocks as they awaited fourth-quarter earnings data from more than 100 S&P 500 companies released later in the week. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 6.9 basis points to 4.09%. Crude oil prices stepped back following last week’s surge, falling nearly 1.3% to $77.00 per barrel. Gold prices advanced 0.7%, while the dollar was flat.

The Nasdaq lost 0.8% last Tuesday ahead of earnings reports from some major tech companies. The small caps of the Russell 2000 also slipped 0.8%, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.1%. The Dow rose 0.4% and the Global Dow ticked up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields declined for the second straight day, losing 3.2 basis points to settle at 4.05%. Crude oil prices reversed course, closing at about $77.88 per barrel after gaining 1.4%. The dollar fell 0.2%, while gold prices continued their mini bull run after advancing 0.5%.

Last Wednesday saw Wall Street react negatively to the Federal Reserve’s indication that interest rates will not be coming down any time soon. Each of the benchmark indexes declined, with the Russell 2000 (-2.3%) and the Nasdaq (-2.2%) falling the furthest, followed by the S&P 500 (-1.6%), the Dow (-0.8%), and the Global Dow (-0.4%). Bond prices increased, pulling yields lower, with 10-year Treasury yields falling 9.2 basis points to 3.96%. Crude oil prices dropped 2.6%, settling at $75.78 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.2%, while gold prices ticked up 0.1%.

Stocks rebounded last Thursday, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing higher. Investors were not deterred by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s indication that interest rates would not likely be lowered in March, when the Fed next meets. Several major corporations posted solid fourth-quarter earnings data, which also helped support equities. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.4% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%), the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 (0.3%), and the Global Dow (0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 3.86%, a decrease of 10.4 basis points. Crude oil prices dropped 2.5% to $73.92 per barrel as traders focused on attempts to broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. The dollar slid 0.2%, while gold prices rose 0.2%.

Equities closed higher last Friday with the exception of small caps which lagged. By the close of trading, the Dow (0.4%) and the S&P 500 (1.1%) reached new record highs. The Nasdaq jumped 1.7%, bolstered by strong earnings results from megatech companies. The Global Dow inched up 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 declined 0.6%. As investors moved to stocks, demand for bonds fell, sending yields higher. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed 17.0 basis points to 4.03%. Crude oil prices continued to slide, falling 2.3%. The dollar gained 0.8%, while gold prices lost 0.8%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 2/2Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5438,109.4338,654.421.43%2.56%
Nasdaq15,011.3515,455.3615,628.951.12%4.11%
S&P 5004,769.834,890.974,958.611.38%3.96%
Russell 20002,027.071,978.331,962.73-0.79%-3.17%
Global Dow4,355.284,372.084,395.760.54%0.93%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.16%4.03%-13 bps17 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39103.46103.920.44%2.50%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$78.19$72.15-7.72%1.19%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,018.40$2,054.101.77%-0.89%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds target rate range at its current 5.25%-5.50%. While economic activity and employment were solid, inflation remained elevated. The Committee appeared to discourage any expectations of an impending interest rate reduction by indicating, “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”
  • January saw employment increase by 353,000, well above expectations. January’s total, coupled with December’s upwardly revised total of 333,000, clearly shows strength in the labor sector. Last month, job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry. In January, the unemployment rate was 3.7% for the third month in a row, and the number of unemployed people declined by 144,000 to 6.1 million. The labor participation rate, at 62.5% was unchanged from the December estimate. The employment-population ratio edged up 0.1 percentage point to 60.2%. In January, average hourly earnings rose by $0.19, or 0.6%, to $34.55. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.5%. The average workweek decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.1 hours in January and was down by 0.5 hour over the year.
  • Manufacturing improved in January for the first time since April 2023. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ was 50.7 in January, up from 47.9 in December. The latest advance in the purchasing managers’ index ended two months of declines and marked the strongest improvement in operating conditions since September 2022.
  • The number of job openings, at 9.0 million, ticked up 101,000 in December from November, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. Nevertheless, this measure is down from a series high of 12.0 million in March 2022. Job openings increased in professional and business services (+239,000) but decreased in wholesale trade (-83,000). In December, the number of hires, at 5.6 million, increased marginally from the November total. The number of hires decreased in health care and social assistance (-119,000) but increased in state and local government, excluding education (+35,000). In December, the number of total separations, which includes quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations, changed little at 5.4 million. Over the month, the number of total separations decreased in health care and social assistance (-91,000) but increased in wholesale trade (+39,000).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.095 per gallon on January 29, $0.033 per gallon higher than the prior week’s price but $0.394 less than a year ago. Also, as of January 29, the East Coast price increased $0.062 to $3.083 per gallon; the Midwest price declined $0.017 to $2.872 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.068 to $2.753 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.061 to $2.732 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.011 to $3.937 per gallon.
  • For the week ended January 27, there were 224,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 20 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 20 was 1,898,000, an increase of 70,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 5,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 13 were New Jersey (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.6%), Minnesota (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Alaska (2.2%), California (2.2%), Illinois (2.2%), Montana (2.1%), Puerto Rico (2.1%), Pennsylvania (2.0%), and Washington (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 20 were in Wisconsin (+1,048) and Washington (+428), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-5,636), California (-4,632), New York (-4,208), Georgia (-3,477), and Oregon (-2,388).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week is light on economic data. Most of the attention will remain on the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the presidential primaries. The January survey of purchasing managers in the services sector is out this week. December saw the Purchasing Managers’ Index expand modestly.

What I’m Watching This Week – 22 January 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close January 19, 2024)

Wall Street closed the holiday-shortened week generally higher, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains, except for the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow. The surge in stocks was driven primarily by information technology and communication services, with chip makers leading the charge. Other than financials, which ticked up marginally higher, the remaining market sectors ended the week in the red. Following December’s surge, investors became pensive about stocks to begin the new year after expectations of an impending interest rate cut waned. However, favorable economic news helped bolster confidence in equities, at least for the time being. Long-term bond prices faded, pushing yields higher, as good economic news, particularly in the labor sector, supported the Federal Reserve’s inclination to keep rates higher for longer.

Stocks closed lower last Tuesday as investor sentiment was dampened by rising bond yields and a suggestion from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that interest rate cuts should not be rushed. The Russell 2000 fell 1.2%, the Global Dow lost 1.0%, the Dow slid 0.6%, the S&P 500 declined 0.4%, and the Nasdaq dipped 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 11.6 basis points to 4.06% as bond values declined. Crude oil prices settled at $71.81 per barrel after falling 1.2%. The dollar rose 0.7%, while gold prices fell 1.0%.

Equities fell for the second straight session last Wednesday as rising Treasury yields impacted megacap companies. The Global Dow (-0.8%) fell the furthest, followed by the Russell 2000 (-0.7%), the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 (-0.6%), and the Dow (-0.3%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.10%. The worst-performing sectors included real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology, and materials. Crude oil prices rose 0.6% to $72.81 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices declined 1.1%.

A surge in megacap tech shares helped push stocks higher last Thursday. The Nasdaq led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 1.4%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.9%), the Global Dow and the Russell 2000 (0.6%), and the Dow (0.5%). Ten-year Treasury yields continued to ascend, gaining 3.8 basis points to close at 4.14%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.0% to $74.02 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices gained 0.9%.

Stocks rallied to close out the week last Friday, with the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high. The information technology sector led the day’s gains with chip makers driving the advance. The Nasdaq advanced 1.7%, followed by the S&P 500 (1.2%), the Dow (1.1%), the Russell 2000 (1.0%), and the Global Dow (0.8%). Ten-year Treasury yields were flat, closing at 4.14%. Crude oil prices ended their streak, falling 0.4% to $73.82 per barrel. The dollar dipped 0.3%, while gold prices rose 0.5%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 1/19Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5437,592.9837,863.800.72%0.46%
Nasdaq15,011.3514,972.7615,310.972.26%2.00%
S&P 5004,769.834,783.834,839.811.17%1.47%
Russell 20002,027.071,950.961,944.39-0.34%-4.08%
Global Dow4,355.284,341.834,318.47-0.54%-0.85%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%5.25%-5.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%3.95%4.14%`19 bps28 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39102.43103.250.80%1.83%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$72.80$73.791.36%3.49%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,052.20$2,031.50-1.01%-1.98%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Retail and food services sales rose 0.6% in December and 5.6% over the December 2022 rate. Total retail sales for 2023 increased 3.2%. Retail trade sales were up 0.6% from November 2023 and up 4.8% above last year. Nonstore (online) retail sales were up 9.7% from last year, while sales at food services and drinking places increased 11.1% from December 2022.
  • Import prices were unchanged in December after declining 0.5% in November. Import fuel prices decreased 0.3% in December, while nonfuel prices were unchanged. Prices for imports fell 1.6% for the year ended in December. Import prices have not risen on a 12-month basis since January 2023. Prices for exports fell 0.9% for the third consecutive month in December. Export prices fell 3.2% over the past year.
  • Industrial production inched up 0.1% in December after being unchanged in November. For the 12 months ended in December, industrial production rose 1.0%. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1% last month after increasing 0.2% in November. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output declined 0.1% in December. Utilities declined 1.0% in December, while mining rose 0.9%. The major market groups posted mixed results in December. The production of consumer goods moved up 0.2%, while production of nondurable consumer goods was flat.
  • The number of building permits issued for residential construction increased by 1.9% in December over November and 6.1% above the December 2022 rate. Issued building permits for single-family homes in December were 1.7% above the November figure. In 2023, an estimated 1,469,800 building permits were issued, which was 11.7% below the 2022 figure. The number of housing starts fell 4.3% last month, but was 7.6% above the December 2022 estimate. Housing completions rose 8.7% in December and 13.2% above the December 2022 rate.
  • Sales of existing homes declined 1.0% in December and 6.2% from December 2022. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS®, despite the drop in December sales, activity is expected to pick up in 2024 as mortgage rates continue to decline and more inventory is expected to appear on the market. In December, unsold inventory sat at a 3.2-month supply, down from 3.5 months in November, but up from 2.9 months a year ago. The median existing-home sales price was $382,600 in December, down from $387,700 in November, but 4.4% above the December 2022 price of $366,500. Sales of existing single-family homes also fell in December, down 0.3% from the previous month’s total. The median existing single-family home price was $387,000, down from November’s price of $392,200, but up from the December 2022 price of $372,000.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.058 per gallon on January 15, $0.015 per gallon lower than the prior week’s price and $0.252 less than a year ago. Also, as of January 15, the East Coast price decreased $0.036 to $3.039 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.055 to $2.823 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.006 to $2.670 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.032 to $2.733 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.096 to $3.976 per gallon.
  • For the week ended January 13, there were 187,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 182,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 6 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 6 was 1,806,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 2,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 30 were New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.8%), Minnesota (2.6%), Montana (2.5%), Alaska (2.3%), California (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.3%), Pennsylvania (2.2%), New York (2.1%), and Washington (2.1%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 6 were in New York (+20,535), California (+9,454), Texas (+9,337), Georgia (+6,261), and South Carolina (+4,152), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,044), Massachusetts (-3,341), Connecticut (-2,896), Iowa (-1,847), and Pennsylvania (-1,566).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Reports focusing on several different sectors of the economy are available this week. The manufacturing sector is represented by the report on durable goods orders for December. New orders for durable goods rose 5.4% in November. The latest information on sales of new single-family homes is out this week. Sales fell 12.2% in November and look to rebound in December. The advance estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2023 is out this week. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter. The report on personal income and expenditures for December is released this week. This report includes the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation guide for the Federal Reserve. The PCE price index slid 0.1% in November. However, other inflation indicators increased in December, and it is likely that the PCE price index will follow suit.