Tag: Investing

What I’m Watching This Week – 9 December 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close December 6, 2024)

A stronger-than-expected jobs report (see below) helped drive stocks mostly higher last week and raise optimism of an interest rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets later in December. Consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology helped drive the market, which was otherwise tempered by downturns in energy, utilities, real estate, and materials. Long-term bond prices were relatively stable, with yields on 10-year Treasuries slipping 2.0 basis points from the prior week’s closing mark. Crude oil prices declined on demand fears despite OPEC+’s decision to extend production cuts until the end of 2026. The dollar inched higher, while gold prices dipped lower.

A surge in tech shares and large-cap stocks drove the NASDAQ (1.0%) and the S&P 500 (0.24%) to record highs last Monday. Along with information technology, other sectors outperforming were communication services and consumer discretionary. The Global Dow gained 0.1%, while the Dow (-0.3%) declined. The small caps of the Russell 2000 ended the day essentially unchanged. Yields on 10-year Treasuries inched up to 4.19%. Crude oil prices settled at $68.09 per barrel. The dollar climbed 0.6%, partially rebounding from a 1.7% decline the previous week. Gold prices fell 0.7% to $2,661.60 per ounce.

Last Tuesday saw both the NASDAQ (0.4%) and the S&P 500 (0.1%) notch new record highs, while the Russell 2000 (-0.8%) and the Dow (-0.2%) declined. The Global Dow inched up 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked up to 4.22%. Crude oil prices closed the session at about $69.99 per barrel, an increase of 2.8% from the previous day’s estimate. The dollar dipped 0.1%, while gold prices increased 0.3%.

All three major market indexes reached new record highs last Wednesday. The NASDAQ (1.3%), the Dow (0.7%), and the S&P 500 (0.6%) each posted notable gains, with the Dow closing above 45,000 for the first time in its history. Tech stocks continued to thrive, while some encouraging earnings reports from major companies bolstered investor confidence. The small caps of the Russell 2000 gained 0.4%, while the Global Dow dipped 0.1%. Crude oil prices gave back some of the prior day’s gains, falling 1.7% to $68.72 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.18%. The dollar was unchanged, while gold prices rose 0.2%.

The markets trended lower last Thursday ahead of Friday’s employment data, which could be the determining factor in whether the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates later this month. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Global Dow (0.3%) ended higher. The Russell 2000 fell 1.3%, while the Dow lost 0.6%. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ dipped 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields were flat, crude oil prices slipped to $68.41 per barrel, the dollar fell 0.6%, and gold prices declined 0.8%.

Stocks closed last week with mixed results. The Dow (-0.3%) and the Global Dow (-0.1%) declined, while the NASDAQ (0.8%), the Russell 2000 (0.5%), and the S&P 500 (0.3%) advanced. Last Friday’s gains sent both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 to new record highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped to 4.15%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.7%. The dollar and gold prices each increased by 0.3%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 12/6Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5444,910.6544,642.52-0.60%6.89%
Nasdaq15,011.3519,218.1719,859.773.34%18.09%
S&P 5004,769.836,032.386,090.270.96%15.41%
Russell 20002,027.072,434.732,408.99-1.06%7.76%
Global Dow4,355.285,016.355,041.080.49%9.30%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.50%-4.75%4.50%-4.75%0 bps-75 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.17%4.15%-2 bps29 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39105.74105.980.23%4.53%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$68.00$67.15-1.25%-5.82%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,657.00$2,653.80-0.12%28.05%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • As anticipated, the labor sector recovered from severe weather and strike activity in the previous month. Employment rose by 227,000 in November following upward revisions to both September (+32,000) and October (+24,000). Employment increased by an average of 186,000 per month over the 12 months prior to November. The unemployment rate, at 4.2%, rose by 0.1 percentage point, while the number of unemployed increased by 161,000 to 7.1 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.7%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, 0.1 percentage point lower than the October estimate. The employment-population ratio declined 0.2 percentage point to 59.8%. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.7 million in November but was up from 1.2 million a year earlier. In November, the long-term unemployed accounted for 23.2% of all unemployed people. In November, average hourly earnings rose by $0.13, or 0.4%, to $35.61. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%. The average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in November.
  • The manufacturing sector picked up steam in November, according to the latest survey from S&P Global. Purchasing managers noted that the reduction in new orders was at the slowest pace in the last five months. Some manufacturers indicated that domestic demand conditions had started to improve, however new export orders decreased at a sharper pace as international demand worsened. Although the pace of reduction in total new orders eased, a further decline in new business contributed to another drop in manufacturing production for the fourth straight month. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ remained below the 50.0 break-even mark in November, but at 49.7, pointed to only a marginal worsening in the health of the manufacturing sector.
  • Business activity increased in the services sector in November at the fastest pace since March 2022. The expansion in services was largely driven by the largest rise in new business in just over two-and-a-half years. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index rose to 56.1 in November, up from 55.0 in October and above the 50.0 neutral mark for the 22nd consecutive month.
  • The number of job openings, at 7.7 million, increased by 372,000 in October from the prior month, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. Despite the increase, job openings were 941,000 under the pace a year earlier. In October, the number of hires fell 269,000 to 5.3 million and was down by 501,000 over the year. Total separations, which includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, were little changed at 5.3 million but were down 369,000 from October 2023.
  • The latest report on the international trade deficit was released December 5 and was for October. The goods and services deficit was $73.8 billion, down $10.0 billion, or 11.9%, from September. October exports were $265.7 billion, $4.3 billion, or 1.6%, less than September exports. October imports were $339.6 billion, $14.3 billion, or 4.0%, less than September imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $80.7 billion, or 12.3%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $94.0 billion, or 3.7%. Imports increased $174.7 billion, or 5.4%.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.034 per gallon on December 2, $0.010 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.197 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 2, the East Coast price ticked down $0.022 to $2.989 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.036 to $2.902 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.054 to $2.581 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.041 to $2.787 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.021 to $3.863 per gallon.
  • For the week ended November 30, there were 224,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 23 was 1.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 23 was 1,871,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 16 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), Alaska (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Nevada (1.7%), Rhode Island (1.7%), Massachusetts (1.6%), Minnesota (1.6%), and New York (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 23 were in California (+4,573), Illinois (+2,814), Pennsylvania (+2,785), Georgia (+2,152), and Michigan (+1,976), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-853), Delaware (-94), Hawaii (-57), Virginia (-21), and West Virginia (-4).

Eye on the Week Ahead

November inflation data is available this week with the releases of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). October saw the CPI rise 0.2% for the month and 2.6% for the year, while the PPI ticked up 0.2% for October and 2.2% for the year.

What I’m Watching This Week – 2 December 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 29, 2024)

Thanksgiving week proved to be a positive one for stocks. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed higher, led by the Dow and the Russell 2000. Financials, consumer staples, and industrials led the market sectors, with only energy and communication services declining. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell for the second consecutive week. Crude oil prices declined despite an apparent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The dollar lost about 1.7% for the week, while gold prices declined 2.0%.

The Dow reached a new high last Monday as stocks closed generally higher. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%) and the Global Dow (0.5%). The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each climbed 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.27% after falling 14.5 basis points. The dollar, which had been rallying, declined 0.6%, while gold prices snapped a five-day winning streak after losing 3.1%. Crude oil prices slid 3.1%, settling at $69.07 per barrel.

Both the S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.3%) reached record highs last Tuesday. The NASDAQ gained 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) and the Global Dow (-0.1%) declined. Investors wrestled with the potential economic effects of President-elect Trump’s trade tariffs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at 4.30%. Crude oil prices slid to $68.63 per barrel. Gold prices rose 0.6% and the dollar inched up 0.1%.

Stocks fell the day before Thanksgiving as each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the session in the red, with the exception of the Russell 2000, which ticked up 0.1%. The NASDAQ fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Dow declined 0.3%. The Global Dow was flat. Crude oil prices closed at $68.76 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.24%. The dollar declined 0.9%, while gold prices rose 0.6%. Investors saw the likelihood of another interest rate reduction in December diminish after the latest data showed inflation ticked up in October and over the last 12 months (see below), indicating that movement toward the Fed’s 2.0% target has stalled.

The week ended as it began with stocks closing higher. The S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.4%) reached record highs. The NASDAQ gained 0.8%, the Global Dow rose 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 edged up 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields lost 6.4 basis points to close at 4.17%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.1%, while gold prices increased 0.7%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/29Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5444,296.5144,910.651.39%19.16%
NASDAQ15,011.3519,003.6519,218.171.13%28.02%
S&P 5004,769.835,969.346,032.381.06%26.47%
Russell 20002,027.072,406.672,434.731.17%20.11%
Global Dow4,355.284,971.055,016.350.91%15.18%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.50%-4.75%4.50%-4.75%0 bps-75 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.41%4.17%-24 bps31 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39107.53105.74-1.66%4.29%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$71.25$68.00-4.56%-4.63%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,711.70$2,657.00-2.02%28.20%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The second estimate for the third-quarter gross domestic product revealed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, unchanged from the initial estimate. In the second quarter, GDP increased 3.0%. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, rose 3.5% in the third quarter. Nonresidential fixed investment advanced 3.8%, while residential fixed investment declined 5.0%. Exports rose 7.5% and imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, advanced 10.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index increased 1.5% and 2.1% excluding food and energy.
  • Personal income increased 0.6% in October, while disposable personal income, personal income less personal current taxes, increased 0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. The PCE price index increased 0.2% in October. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. Since October 2023, the PCE price index rose 2.3%. The PCE price index less food and energy increased 2.8% for the year.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 0.2% following two consecutive monthly decreases. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, advancing 0.5%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in October increased 1.4%, while new orders for defense capital goods in October decreased 4.0%.
  • The advance report on international trade in goods for October showed the deficit was $99.1 billion, down $9.6 billion, or 8.8%, from the September estimate. Exports of goods for October were $168.7 billion, $5.6 billion, or 3.2%, less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $267.8 billion, $15.2 billion, or 5.4% less than September imports.
  • Sales of new single-family homes dropped 17.3% in October and fell 9.4% over the last 12 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800. Inventory in October sat at a supply of 9.5 months.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.044 per gallon on November 25, $0.002 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.194 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 25, the East Coast price ticked up $0.008 to $3.011 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.016 to $2.866 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.006 to $2.635 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.089 to $2.828 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.009 to $3.884 per gallon.
  • For the week ended November 23, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 16 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 16 was 1,907,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 9 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Alaska (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Illinois (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), and New York (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 16 were in Utah (+538), Minnesota (+381), Missouri (+252), Idaho (+200), and Louisiana (+199), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,088), Georgia (-1,952), New Jersey (-1,423), Texas (-1,160), and Ohio (-1,125).

Eye on the Week Ahead

One of the most closely watched of all economic indicators is the employment situation report, which is released this week for November. October saw the labor force increase by a scant 12,000. However, Hurricane Milton may have impacted the surveys that support the employment data. It would not be surprising to see October’s figures increase as more data is made available. However, the consensus for November, at about 125,000, is well below the monthly average for the year.

What I’m Watching This Week – 25 November 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 22, 2024)

Wall Street enjoyed a solid week of gains, rebounding from the prior week’s losses. Each of the benchmark indexes climbed higher, led by the small caps of the Russell 2000, as investors moved from mega caps to cyclical stocks, which are influenced largely by the economy. Communication services was the only market sector to close in the red, while the remaining sectors moved higher, led by utilities, consumer staples, real estate, and materials. Crude oil prices gained nearly 6.5% last week, driven by increasing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The dollar and gold prices moved higher as investors sought safe-haven assets, in light of increasing geopolitical risks.

Last week began with stocks closing generally higher as the information technology sector rebounded from a tough prior week. The NASDAQ and the Global Dow each advanced 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Russell 2000 ticked up 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.1%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slid to 4.41%. Crude oil prices rose 3.3% to settle at $69.22 per barrel, driven higher by growing concerns over supply cuts. The dollar declined 0.5%, while gold prices advanced 1.8%.

Stocks closed mostly higher last Tuesday, led by the NASDAQ (1.0%), followed by the Russell 2000 (0.8%), and the S&P 500 (0.4%). The Dow dipped 0.3% and the Global Dow fell less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.37%, a decrease of 3.5 basis points. Gold prices rose for the second straight session after gaining 0.8%. The dollar dipped 0.1%. Crude oil prices increased 0.7% to $69.64 per barrel.

The Dow ended a streak of daily losses last Wednesday after closing up 0.3%. The Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 were flat, while the Global Dow (-0.3%), and the NASDAQ (-0.1%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields closed up 1.7 basis points to 4.41%. Crude oil prices slipped 0.2%, falling to $69.12 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.4% and gold prices advanced 0.8%. Investors were pensive as they awaited the earnings report from a major AI company.

Wall Street saw a rally last Thursday, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing higher as investors shifted toward cyclical stocks. The economy showed evidence of strengthening as jobless claims fell to nearly a seven-month low (see below), and sales of existing homes rebounded in October. The Russell 2000 led the benchmarks, gaining 1.7%, the Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 and the Global Dow each climbed 0.5%, while the NASDAQ ticked up less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 2.6 basis points to reach 4.43%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.0%, settling at $70.13 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The dollar (0.3%) and gold prices (0.8%) advanced.

The markets closed on a positive note last Friday. The Russell 2000 gained 1.8% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%), the Global Dow (0.4%), the S&P 500 (0.3%), and the NASDAQ (0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.41%. Crude oil continued to surge, climbing 1.6%. The dollar and gold prices also advanced.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/22Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5443,444.9944,296.511.96%17.53%
NASDAQ15,011.3518,680.1219,003.651.73%26.60%
S&P 5004,769.835,870.625,969.341.68%25.15%
Russell 20002,027.072,303.842,406.674.46%18.73%
Global Dow4,355.284,913.454,971.051.17%14.14%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.50%-4.75%4.50%-4.75%0 bps-75 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.44%4.41%-3 bps55 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39106.73107.530.75%6.06%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$66.96$71.256.41%-0.07%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,566.00$2,711.705.68%30.84%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • October saw a downturn in new home construction and completions. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of issued residential building permits fell 0.6% in October and 7.7% from a year earlier. Building permits for single-family homes rose 0.5% last month. Housing starts dropped 3.1% in October and were 4.0% under the October 2023 estimate. Single-family housing starts decreased 6.9% in October. Housing completions declined 4.4% last month but were 16.8% above the October 2023 rate. Completions of single-family homes in October were 1.4% below the September rate.
  • Sales of existing homes rose in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing-home sales rose 3.4% last month and were up 2.9% since October 2023. The expanding economy, job growth, and increased inventory helped drive sales higher. Total housing inventory sat at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.3 months in September but up from 3.6 months in October 2023. The median existing-home price in October was $407,200 ($406,700 in September), up 4.0% from one year ago ($391,600). Single-family home sales accelerated 3.5% in October and were 4.1% above the prior year’s pace. The median existing single-family home price was $412,200 in October, ahead of the September price of $411,400, and 4.1% above the October 2023 price of $396,000. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78% as of November 14. That’s down from 6.79% one week ago and 7.44% one year ago.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.046 per gallon on November 18, $0.006 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.243 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 18, the East Coast price ticked up $0.001 to $3.003 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.016 to $2.882 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price dipped $0.001 to $2.629 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.158 to $2.917 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.049 to $3.875 per gallon.
  • For the week ended November 16, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 9 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 9 was 1,908,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 2 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Washington (1.7%), Alaska (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), Oregon (1.4%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 9 were in California (+5,906), New Jersey (+2,439), New York (+2,327), Minnesota (+1,889), and Texas (+1,275), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-4,072), Kansas (-599), Wisconsin (-436), Ohio (-305), and North Dakota (-284).

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s plenty of potentially market-moving economic information released this week. Two reports will draw the most attention: the second estimate of third-quarter GDP and the report on personal income and outlays. The October release showed GDP advanced 2.8%, while consumer spending rose 3.7%. Also last month, personal income rose 0.3%, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%, and consumer prices rose 0.2%.

What I’m Watching This Week – 18 November 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 15, 2024)

Last week saw stocks close markedly lower as investors were discouraged by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who put a damper on the likelihood of another interest rate decrease this year. Among the market sectors, energy, financials, and utilities closed the week higher, while the remaining sectors ended the week in the red, led by health care, which saw stocks fall after President-elect Trump’s appointment of Robert Kennedy as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered near the highest level since June, reflecting the diminished probability of interest rate cuts. Crude oil and gold prices declined, while the dollar advanced.

Stocks closed higher last Monday as both the Dow (0.7%) and the S&P 500 (0.1%) reached record highs. The Russell 2000 led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 1.5%, while the NASDAQ and the Global Dow each ticked up 0.1%. Consumer discretionary and financials led the market sectors. Crypto-related companies saw sharp gains. Gold dropped 2.4%, extending losses and falling to its lowest level in a month. Crude oil prices declined 3.1% to $68.20 per barrel, pulled lower by a strong dollar (+0.5%) and concerns over China’s waning demand for crude. The bond market was closed in observance of Veterans Day.

The market saw its rally end last Tuesday. Investor preference for risk cooled amid concerns about the economy and inflation, which prompted profit-taking following recent market highs. The Russell 2000 (-1.8%) and the Global Dow (-1.3%) declined the furthest, followed by the Dow (-0.9%), the S&P 500 (-0.3%), and the NASDAQ (-0.1%). Ten-year Treasury yields gained 12.4 basis points to 4.43%. Crude oil prices closed at $68.10 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%. Gold prices fell 0.4%.

Of the benchmark indexes listed here, the Dow and the S&P 500 barely edged higher last Wednesday, while the Russell 2000 (-0.9%), the NASDAQ (-0.3%), and the Global Dow (-0.2%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 4.45%. Crude oil prices dipped to $68.04 per barrel. The dollar continued to rise, gaining 0.4%, while gold prices fell 1.0%. Investors may be exercising caution following the latest Consumer Price Index (see below), which showed disinflation has stalled a bit.

Stocks declined on Thursday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that there was no urgency to lower interest rates given the strength of the economy. The small caps of the Russell 2000 declined for the third straight day after dropping 1.4%. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each fell 0.6%. The Dow lost 0.5% and the Global Dow dipped 0.3%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped 3.3 basis points to end the session at 4.41%. Crude oil prices increased for the first time last week, closing at $68.70 per barrel. The dollar advanced 0.4%, while gold prices declined 0.5%.

Last Friday saw stocks close sharply lower with each of the benchmark indexes listed here losing value. The NASDAQ dropped 2.2%, the Russell 2000 fell 1.4%, the S&P 500 declined 1.3%, the Dow decreased 0.7%, and the Global Dow slid 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed up at 4.44%. Crude oil prices fell 2.4%, the dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices declined for the fifth straight session.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/15Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5443,988.9943,444.99-1.24%15.27%
NASDAQ15,011.3519,286.7818,680.12-3.15%24.44%
S&P 5004,769.835,995.545,870.62-2.08%23.08%
Russell 20002,027.072,399.642,303.84-3.99%13.65%
Global Dow4,355.284,990.574,913.45-1.55%12.82%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.50%-4.75%4.50%-4.75%0 bps-75 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.30%4.44%14 bps58 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39104.92106.731.73%5.27%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$70.48$66.96-4.99%-6.09%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,691.30$2,566.00-4.66%23.81%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in October, the same increase as in each of the previous three months. For the 12 months ended in October, the CPI increased 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from the same period ended in September. Prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October and 3.3% over the last 12 months. Prices for shelter rose 0.4% in October, accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Food prices also increased over the month. Prices for energy were unchanged over the month after declining 1.9% in September.
  • The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in October following a 0.1% bump in September. Producer prices moved up 2.4% for the 12 months ended in October. Most of the October increase can be traced to a 0.3% in crease in prices for services. Goods prices inched up 0.1%. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3% in October after moving up 0.1% in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5%.
  • Retail and food services sales rose 0.4% in October and increased 2.8% for the 12 months ended in October. Retail trade sales were up 0.4% last month and up 2.6% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 7.0% from October 2023, while food services and drinking places sales increased 4.3% over the same period.
  • Import prices rose 0.3% in October following a 0.4% decline in September. The October increase was the largest one-month advance since April 2024. Fuel prices rose 1.5% last month after declining 7.5% in September, marking the largest monthly increase since April 2024. Despite the October increase, import fuel prices declined 13.6% for the year ended in October. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.2% for the second consecutive month in October. Import prices increased 0.8% from October 2023 to October 2024. Prices for exports increased 0.8% in October, which was the largest monthly rise since August 2023. Higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports in October contributed to the monthly increase. Despite the October rise, export prices declined 0.1% over the past year.
  • According to the Federal Reserve’s latest report, industrial production declined 0.3% in October after falling 0.5% the previous month. A strike at a major producer of civilian aircraft, coupled with the lingering effects of Hurricanes Milton and Helene contributed to the October decline. Manufacturing fell 0.5% last month, while mining and utilities rose 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. Industrial production in October was 0.3% below its year-earlier level.
  • October 2024, the first month of fiscal year 2025, saw a monthly government deficit of $257.5 billion, well above the $66.6 billion deficit reported for October 2023. Government receipts were $326.8 billion, while expenditures totaled $584.2 billion.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.052 per gallon on November 11, $0.017 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.297 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 11, the East Coast price increased $0.010 to $3.002 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.071 to $2.866 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.011 to $2.630 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.028 to $3.075 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.021 to $3.924 per gallon.
  • For the week ended November 9, there were 217,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 2 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 2 was 1,873,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended October 26 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Washington (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Alaska (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 2 were in California (+3,825), Michigan (+3,439), Ohio (+1,911), New Jersey (+1,317), and Kansas (+870), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,530), Georgia (-1,303), Missouri (-797), New York (-469), and Washington (-364).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The focus is on the housing sector this week. The report on housing starts for October is out on Tuesday. September saw the number of housing starts and issued building permits decline. Also out this week is the report on existing home sales for October. Sales fell in September from the previous month as did the median sales price.

What I’m Watching This Week – 11 November 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 8, 2024)

Investors had plenty to think about last week as they focused on the results of the presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s move to further reduce interest rates (see below). Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed up by the end of the week, with consumer discretionary, information technology, and financials outperforming. Bond prices ended the week higher, pulling yields lower. Crude oil prices rose to over $72.00 per barrel only to slip back a bit at the end of the week. The dollar inched higher, while gold prices declined. According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates rose to 6.79% on November 7, the highest they’ve been in nearly four months.

Last Monday saw stocks tumble as election uncertainty weighed on the markets. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Russell 2000 (0.4%) posted a gain. The Dow lost 0.6%, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each fell 0.3%, and the Global Dow dipped 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 5.2 basis points to close at 4.30%. Crude oil prices rose 3.2% to reach $71.69 per barrel. The dollar lost 0.4%, while gold prices slipped 0.1%.

Stocks rallied last Tuesday as investors awaited the results of the presidential election. The Russell 2000 led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 1.9%. The NASDAQ rose 1.4%, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Dow advanced 1.0%, and the Global Dow climbed 0.9%. Ten-Year Treasury yields closed at 4.28%. Crude oil prices rose 1.0%, closing at $72.16 per barrel. The dollar slipped 0.4%, while gold prices advanced 0.2%.

Wall Street enjoyed a robust day following the presidential election. Investors showed optimism that a second Trump administration may favor businesses and boost economic growth. Each of the benchmark indexes jumped higher, led by the Russell 2000 (5.8%), followed by the Dow (3.6%), the NASDAQ (3.0%), the S&P 500 (2.5%), and the Global Dow (0.7%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose more than 13.0 basis points to 4.42%. The dollar index, at 105.14, reached its highest level in four months. Crude oil prices dipped 0.2%, settling at $71.84 per barrel. Gold prices fell nearly 3.0%.

Stocks closed mostly higher last Thursday, with the NASDAQ (1.5%), the S&P 500 (0.7%), and the Global Dow (0.7%) advancing, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.4%. The Dow was flat. The ten-year Treasury yield slid to 4.34%. Crude oil prices rose to $72.16 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.7%, while gold prices rose 1.4%.

The S&P 500 (0.4%) and the Dow (0.6%) closed at record highs last Friday, buoyed by the Fed’s latest interest rate cut. The Russell 2000 gained 0.7%, the NASDAQ rose 0.1%, while the Global Dow fell 0.5%. Ten-year Treasury yields continued to tumble, closing the session at 4.30%. Crude oil prices dipped 2.7%, gold prices lost 0.5%, while the dollar climbed 0.4%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/8Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5442,052.1943,988.994.61%16.71%
NASDAQ15,011.3518,239.9219,286.785.74%28.48%
S&P 5004,769.835,728.805,995.544.66%25.70%
Russell 20002,027.072,210.132,399.648.57%18.38%
Global Dow4,355.284,902.554,990.571.80%14.59%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.75%-5.00%4.50%-4.75%-25 bps-75 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.36%4.30%-6 bps44 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39104.34104.920.56%3.48%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$69.47$70.481.45%-1.15%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,743.70$2,691.30-1.91%29.86%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • By a unanimous vote, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut interest rates an additional 25.0 basis points. The federal funds target rate range is now 4.50%-4.75%. The Committee noted that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate moved up but remained low. Inflation has progressed toward the Committee’s 2.0% objective but remained somewhat elevated. In sum, the Committee would be prepared to adjust its monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals of 2.0% inflation and maximum employment.
  • The international trade in goods and services deficit was $84.4 billion in September, up $13.6 billion, or 19.2%, from $70.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion, or 1.2%, less than August exports. September imports were $352.3 billion, $10.3 billion, or 3.0%, more than August imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $69.6 billion, or 11.8%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $84.7 billion, or 3.7%. Imports increased $154.4 billion, or 5.3%.
  • The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered 55.0 in October, down slightly from 55.2 in September. A reading of 50.0 or higher indicates growth, thus services activity expanded solidly last month but at a slightly slower pace than in September. The services sector has expanded in each of the past 21 months. New orders grew at a solid pace in October. However, firms continued to scale back staffing levels amid uncertainty over future demand.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.069 per gallon on November 4, $0.028 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.327 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 4, the East Coast price declined $0.053 to $2.992 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.014 to $2.937 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.027 to $2.619 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.095 to $3.103 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.028 to $3.945 per gallon.
  • For the week ended November 2, there were 221,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended October 26 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended October 26 was 1,892,000, an increase of 39,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended October 19 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Washington (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Alaska (1.4%), Illinois (1.4%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended October 26 were in New York (+1,983), Michigan (+1,722), Illinois (+1,066), Texas (+757), and Ohio (+706), while the largest decreases were in North Carolina (-2,859), Florida (-2,429), California (-1,876), Virginia (-824), and Washington (-698).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The latest inflation data for October is available this week with the release of the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, and the report on import and export prices. The CPI rose 0.2% in September but ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 2.4% year over year. Producer prices, on the other hand, were flat in September and up only 1.8% since September 2023.

What I’m Watching This Week – 4 November 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 1, 2024)

Wall Street saw stocks end October with a whimper, although equities began November on a high note. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed last week lower, except the Russell 2000. A surprisingly weak jobs report (see below) at the end of the week was offset by solid earnings reports from a couple of tech giants. Analysts speculated that the October labor data was impacted by hurricane disruptions and a strike at a major airplane manufacturer. Consumer discretionary and communication services were the only market sectors to end the week higher. Utilities, real estate, and information technology fell the furthest. Ten-year Treasury yields reached the highest rate in nearly four months as the latest economic data favored a slightly more hawkish Federal Reserve. Crude oil prices closed the week with three consecutive days of gains, but not enough to recover from a downturn earlier in the week.

Stocks ended higher last Monday as investors awaited a batch of major corporate earnings reports. The Russell 2000 added 1.6% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here. The Dow advanced 0.7%, followed by the Global Dow, which rose 0.5%. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each gained 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.27%, an increase of 4.6 basis points. Crude oil prices plunged 5.2% to $68.02 per barrel after Iranian crude oil facilities escaped Israeli bombardment, easing fears of disruptions to energy supplies. Both the dollar and gold prices were relatively unchanged by the close of trading.

Last Tuesday saw the NASDAQ (0.8%) and the S&P 500 (0.2%) close higher, while the remaining indexes ended the session in the red. The Dow fell 0.4%, while the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow each ended the day down 0.3%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries remained at 4.27%. Crude oil prices slid to $67.30 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices rose 1.1%.

Investors were cautious last Wednesday ahead of earnings results from some big tech companies. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here lost ground, led by the NASDAQ (-0.6%), and followed by the Global Dow (-0.5%), the S&P 500 (-0.3%), the Dow (-0.2%), and the Russell 2000 (-0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields ticked lower, settling at 4.26%. Crude oil prices rebounded, gaining 2.5% to close at about $68.91 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.2%, while gold prices rose 0.6%.

Stocks continued to trend lower last Thursday as weak earnings data from some tech giants dampened investors’ zeal for risk. The NASDAQ fell 2.8%, followed by the S&P 500 (-1.9%), the Russell 2000 (-1.6%), the Dow (-0.9%), and the Global Dow (-0.8%). Crude oil prices climbed higher for the second straight day, gaining 2.8% to close at $70.62 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up 1.8 basis points to 4.28%. The dollar and gold prices declined.

Wall Street kicked off November with a bang as stocks closed sharply higher last Friday. Strong earnings from two giant tech companies bolstered market sentiment despite a weak jobs report. The NASDAQ (0.8%) led the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (0.7%), the Russell 2000 (0.6%), the S&P 500 (0.4%), and the Global Dow (0.3%). As stocks moved higher, bond values declined, pushing yields higher. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the session up 1.8% to close at 4.36%. Crude oil prices rose 0.4%. Gold prices dipped 0.2%, while the dollar gained 0.4%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/1Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5442,114.4042,052.19-0.15%11.58%
NASDAQ15,011.3518,518.6118,239.92-1.50%21.51%
S&P 5004,769.835,808.125,728.80-1.37%20.10%
Russell 20002,027.072,207.992,210.130.10%9.03%
Global Dow4,355.284,939.324,902.55-0.74%12.57%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.75%-5.00%4.75%-5.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.23%4.36%13 bps50 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39104.32104.340.02%2.91%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$71.59$69.47-2.96%-2.57%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,757.40$2,743.70-0.50%32.39%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Employment was essentially unchanged (+12,000) in October after adding 223,000 (revised) new jobs in September. The average monthly gain over the prior 12 months was 194,000. According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes Helene and Milton may have impacted the collection and accuracy of data in October. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while the number of unemployed persons increased by 150,000. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million. The labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 62.6%. The employment-population ratio declined 0.2 percentage point to 60.0%. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.6 million in October. This measure is up from 1.3 million a year earlier. In October, the long-term unemployed accounted for 22.9% of all unemployed people. The change in total employment for August was revised down by 81,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined was 112,000 lower than previously reported. In October, average hourly earnings rose by $0.13, or 0.4%, to $35.46. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in October.
  • According to the initial estimate, third-quarter gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8%. In the second quarter, GDP advanced 3.0%. The increase in GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending (3.7%), exports (8.9%), and federal government spending (9.7%). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased 11.2%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5%, compared to an increase of 2.5% in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2% (2.8% in the second quarter).
  • In September, personal income and disposable personal income each increased 0.3%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) advanced 0.5%. The PCE price index moved up 0.2%. Excluding food and energy (core prices), the PCE price index rose 0.3%. Over the last 12 months, the PCE price index climbed 2.1%, while the core PCE price index increased 2.7%.
  • The international trade in goods deficit increased $14.0 billion, or 14.9%, in September over the prior month. A $10.4 billion increase in imports more than offset a $3.6 billion decrease in exports.
  • According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings in September, at 7.4 million, declined about 400,000 from the August estimate and decreased 1.9 million since September 2023. The number of hires changed little at 5.6 million in September. The number of total separations in September was unchanged at 5.2 million but was down 326,000 over the last 12 months. In September, the number of quits changed little at 3.1 million but declined 525,000 over the year. The number of job openings for August was revised down by 179,000 to 7.9 million, the number of hires was revised up by 118,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 171,000 to 5.2 million.
  • New orders continued to decline in the manufacturing sector, according to the latest survey results from the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®). On the plus side, the pace of the decline was the slowest in three months. Nevertheless, manufacturers continued to reduce employment and purchasing activity. The October PMI was 48.5, up from 47.3 in September, but below the 50.0 no-change mark for the fourth consecutive month.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.097 per gallon on October 28, $0.047 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.376 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 28, the East Coast price declined $0.009 to $3.045 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.083 to $2.923 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched down $0.074 to $2.646 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.023 to $3.198 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.061 to $3.973 per gallon.
  • For the week ended October 26, there were 216,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended October 19 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate, which was revised down by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended October 19 was 1,862,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended October 12 were New Jersey (2.1%), California (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Washington (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Illinois (1.4%), Massachusetts (1.4%), Michigan (1.4%), and New York (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended October 19 were in Florida (+4,501), Kansas (+304), Wisconsin (+222), Hawaii (+103), and Idaho (+101), while the largest decreases were in New York (-2,785), North Carolina (-2,767), California (-2,012), Texas (-1,865), and Georgia (-1,852).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The first full week of November is somewhat lacking in the release of important economic data. However, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s statement following its latest meeting on November 7. After reducing the federal funds target range by 50.0 basis points in September, it is possible that the Fed will make no changes in November and may wait until its final meeting of the year in December to adjust rates further.

What I’m Watching This Week – 28 October 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 25, 2024)

Tech shares helped the NASDAQ close up last week. The remaining indexes listed here didn’t fare as well. Renewed concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy dampened investor appetite for risk. Bond prices also faded during the week, driving yields higher. Crude oil prices climbed higher as investors monitored ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices continued to advance and have risen over 33.0% from the beginning of the year.

Stocks mostly retreated last Monday following their longest weekly rally of the year. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the NASDAQ (0.3%) posted a gain. The remaining indexes closed in the red, led by the Russell 2000 (-1.6%), followed by the Dow and the Global Dow (-0.8%). The S&P 500 dipped 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 10.9 basis points to close at 4.18%, the highest level since late July. Among the market sectors, utilities, materials, financials, real estate, and information technology closed higher, while health care and energy declined. Crude oil prices closed up 1.8% to $70.45 per barrel. The dollar (0.5%) and gold prices (0.2%) posted gains.

In what was akin to the previous day’s performance, stocks closed mostly lower last Tuesday. Once again, the NASDAQ was the only benchmark index to post a gain after ticking up 0.2%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 were essentially unchanged. The Global Dow fell 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 declined 0.3%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries inched up to 4.20%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.4% to settle at $72.24 per barrel. The dollar inched up 0.1%, while gold prices rose 0.9%.

Each of the benchmark indexes listed here retreated last Wednesday as bond yields rose amid investor concerns over further interest rate cuts. Several major tech companies saw their stock values decline, which also placed a drag on Wall Street. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6%, the Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P 500 declined 0.9%, the Russell 2000 lost 0.8%, and the Global Dow dipped 0.6%. Bond values also tumbled, pushing yields higher, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing 3.8 basis points to close the session at 4.24%. Crude oil prices fell 1.0%, falling to $71.03 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0,3%, while gold prices declined 1.1%.

Stocks closed mostly higher last Thursday with only the Dow (-0.3%) sliding lower. Investors reacted to the latest earnings reports, particularly one involving a major electric automotive manufacturer. The NASDAQ rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 ended a three-session slide after gaining 0.2%. The Russell 2000 also edged up 0.2%, while the Global Dow inched up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.20%. Crude oil prices retreated for the second straight day, settling at $70.47 per barrel. The dollar edged lower, while gold prices (0.7%) recouped some of the losses from the previous session.

Gains in tech shares helped drive the NASDAQ (0.6%) higher last Friday. A decline in financial shares was enough to overshadow tech gains, resulting in losses for the Dow (-0.6%), the Russell 2000 (-0.5%), and the Global Dow (-0.4%). The S&P 500 ended the session flat. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.23%. Crude oil prices reversed losses from the previous two days, advancing 2.1%. The dollar and gold prices each gained 0.2%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/25Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5443,275.9142,114.40-2.68%11.74%
NASDAQ15,011.3518,489.5518,518.610.16%23.36%
S&P 5004,769.835,864.675,808.12-0.96%21.77%
Russell 20002,027.072,276.092,207.99-2.99%8.93%
Global Dow4,355.285,043.434,939.32-2.06%13.41%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.75%-5.00%4.75%-5.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.07%4.23%16 bps37 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39103.46104.320.83%2.89%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$69.35$71.593.23%0.41%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,736.90$2,757.400.75%33.05%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • September, the last month of the fiscal year, saw the government budget enjoy a surplus of $64.3 billion, well off from August’s deficit of $380.1 billion. For fiscal year 2024, the deficit was $1,832.8 trillion, $137.6 billion above the FY23 deficit of $1,695.2 trillion. Compared to the prior fiscal year, FY24 saw government receipts increase by roughly $479.5 billion, while government outlays increased by $617.0 billion.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased 0.8%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This followed a 0.8% August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.1%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease after declining 3.1%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in September decreased 4.5%. New orders for defense capital goods rose 6.4% last month. Since September 2023, new orders for durable goods have decreased 1.5%.
  • Existing-home sales decreased 1.0% in September and 3.5% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price fell 2.4% in September to $404,500 but was 3.0% above the September 2023 price. The inventory of unsold existing homes, at a supply of 4.3 months, rose by 1.5% from the prior month. Sales of single-family homes edged lower by 0.6% in September and fell 2.3% from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $409,000 in September, down from $419,000 in August but up from $397,400 in September 2023. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.44% as of October 17. That’s up from 6.32% from one week ago but down from 7.63% one year ago.
  • Sales of new single-family homes in September reached the highest level since May 2023 after rising 4.1% over the prior month’s total. Last month’s sales were 6.3% above the September 2023 estimate. The median sales price of new homes sold in September 2024 was $426,300. The average sales price was $501,000. The estimate of new homes for sale at the end of September represented a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.144 per gallon on October 21, $0.027 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.389 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 21, the East Coast price rose $0.012 to $3.054 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.094 to $3.006 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched down $0.015 to $2.720 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.037 to $3.221 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.013 to $4.034 per gallon.
  • For the week ended October 19, there were 227,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended October 12 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended October 5 was 1,897,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended October 5 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Washington (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), Alaska (1.3%), Oregon (1.3%), and Pennsylvania (1.3%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended October 12 were in Georgia (+3,293), New York (+2,340), Pennsylvania (+1,379), Texas (+886), and South Carolina (+779), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-7,917), Florida (-3,257), Ohio (-2,556), North Carolina (-2,365), and Indiana (-2,173).

Eye on the Week Ahead

There are several market-moving economic reports released this week. Among those reports is the initial estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter. The second quarter GDP estimated that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, is released within the personal income and outlays report. August saw prices tick up 0.1%, while the annual rate of growth rose 2.2%. Lastly, the latest employment data for October is released on Friday. September’s report revealed an unexpected 254,000 new jobs, a figure well above consensus estimates. It is likely that the September figure is adjusted downward.

What I’m Watching This Week – 21 October 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 18, 2024)

Wall Street marked another week of gains, with each of the benchmark indexes climbing higher. The Dow and the S&P 500 attained new records, while the NASDAQ rode a spurt in tech and communication shares. Nine of the 11 market sectors closed the week higher, led by utilities, financials, and real estate. Health care and energy declined. Gold prices also reached new record highs, driven by global demand for safer assets and expectations of further interest rate cuts by major central banks. Crude oil prices declined, marking the largest weekly drop since the beginning of September. Weaker demand and slowing economic growth in China drove the downturn in crude oil prices.

The Dow and the S&P 500 achieved fresh highs last Monday as corporate earnings season kicked into high gear. The NASDAQ climbed 0.9% behind a strong performance by tech shares. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the Russell 2000 added 0.6%, the Dow advanced 0.5%, and the Global Dow gained 0.4%. Crude oil prices fell 2.1% to $73.98 per barrel as OPEC+ cut the outlook for demand. The dollar rose 0.3%, while gold prices fell 0.2%. The bond market was closed for the holiday.

Last Monday’s rally didn’t carry over to Tuesday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed sharply lower as weak corporate earnings from a large chipmaker led to a broad selloff in tech shares. The NASDAQ lost 1.0%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 fell 0.8%. The Global Dow dipped 0.6%. The small caps of the Russell 2000 ticked up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.03%, a 0.6-basis-point decline. Crude oil prices dropped 4.0% to $70.90 per barrel. The dollar was flat, while gold prices rose 0.4%.

Stocks closed higher last Wednesday, with the Dow reaching another record high. The Russell 2000 gained 1.6%, followed by the Dow (0.8%), the S&P 500 (0.5%), the NASDAQ (0.3%), and the Global Dow (0.1%). Utilities and financials led the market sectors, while communication services and consumer staples declined. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped to 4.01%. Crude oil prices decreased for the third straight day, closing at $70.49 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices increased.

Last Thursday saw stocks close with mixed results. The Dow rose 0.4%, notching another record, the Global Dow inched up 0.1%, and the NASDAQ gained less than 0.1%. The Russell 2000 lost 0.3%, and the S&P 500 closed marginally lower. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed 0.8 basis points to 4.09%. Crude oil prices ended a downward trend, gaining 0.5% to settle at $70.76 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.2%, and gold prices rose 0.6%.

Stocks ended last Friday’s session mostly higher as the S&P 500 (0.4%) and the Dow (0.1%) recorded new highs. The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 0.6%, and the Global Dow rose 0.4%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.2%. Positive earnings data and a surge in Megacaps helped drive the market higher. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped to 4.07%. Crude oil gave back the previous day’s gains after falling 1.9%. The dollar declined 0.3%, while gold prices rose 1.1%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/18Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5442,863.8643,275.910.96%14.82%
NASDAQ15,011.3518,342.9418,489.550.80%23.17%
S&P 5004,769.835,815.035,864.670.85%22.95%
Russell 20002,027.072,234.412,276.091.87%12.28%
Global Dow4,355.285,022.795,043.430.41%15.80%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.75%-5.00%4.75%-5.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%4.09%4.07%-2 bps21 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39102.93103.460.51%2.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$75.66$69.35-8.34%-2.73%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,672.40$2,736.902.41%32.06%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • In September, retail and food services sales rose 0.4% from the previous month and increased 1.7% from a year earlier. Retail trade sales climbed 0.3% in September and 1.4% from last year. Nonstore (online) retail sales advanced 0.4% last month and 7.1% from September 2023. Gasoline station sales fell 1.6% in September and were down 10.7% for the year.
  • Industrial production decreased 0.3% in September after advancing 0.3% in August. A strike at a major producer of civilian aircraft and the effect of two hurricanes impacted industrial production in September. Manufacturing output fell 0.4% last month, and mining dropped 0.6%. Utilities gained 0.7%. Total industrial production in September was 0.6% below its year-earlier level.
  • Prices for U.S. imports declined 0.4% in September following a 0.2% decrease the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Lower fuel prices in September more than offset higher nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices fell 0.7% in September, after declining 0.9% in August. Import prices edged down 0.1% over the past year, the first 12-month drop since February 2024. Export prices declined 2.1% over the past year, the largest 12-month decrease since January 2024.
  • The number of issued building permits declined 2.9% in September and was 5.7% below the September 2023 rate. Single-family authorizations in September were 0.3% above the revised August figure. Privately-owned housing starts in September were 0.5% below the revised August estimate and were 0.7% below the September 2023 rate. Single-family housing starts in September were 2.7% above the revised August figure. Privately-owned housing completions in September were 5.7% below the revised August estimate but 14.6% above the September 2023 rate. Single-family housing completions in September were 2.7% below the revised August rate.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.171 per gallon on October 14, $0.035 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.405 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 14, the East Coast price rose $0.033 to $3.042 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.064 to $3.100 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched up $0.010 to $2.735 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.013 to $3.258 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.020 to $4.047 per gallon.
  • For the week ended October 12, there were 241,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended October 5 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended October 5 was 1,867,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 3,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended September 28 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Rhode Island (1.8%), Washington (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), Connecticut (1.3%), and Pennsylvania (1.3%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended October 5 were in Michigan (+9,389), North Carolina (+8,714), Ohio (+4,648), California (+4,068), and Florida (+4,021), while the largest decreases were in Wyoming (-24), Idaho (-21), Louisiana (-13), Massachusetts (-12), and Alaska (-10).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The September figures for sales of existing and new homes are available this week. Both markets saw a slip in sales in August. However, with mortgage rates slowly decreasing and inventory increasing, sales should pick up some steam throughout the remainder of the year.

What I’m Watching This Week – 14 October 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 11, 2024)

Despite a tepid start, stocks ended last week generally higher. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains with the Dow and the S&P 500 reaching record highs on multiple occasions. Financials and information technology led the market sectors, with consumer discretionary, real estate, communication services, utilities, and energy losing ground. Crude oil prices rose for the second straight week, fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East and increased fuel demand in Florida on the heels of Hurricane Milton. The dollar and gold prices increased.

Wall Street began the week tumbling lower as investors pondered a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. All of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value, with the NASDAQ falling 1.2% followed by the S&P 500, which dropped 1.0%. The Dow and the Russell 2000 lost 0.9%, while the Global Dow dipped 0.1%. Long-term bond values also declined, with yields on 10-year Treasuries climbing to 4.02%, the highest since late July, as the strong labor report dampened any chance of another interest rate cut in November. Crude oil prices climbed to $77.38 per barrel, a six-week high, based on fears that a broader conflict in the Middle East could include strikes on Iran’s oil fields. The dollar and gold prices marginally decreased.

Last Tuesday saw stocks rebound, driven by a rally in tech shares. The NASDAQ added 1.5%, the S&P 500 rose 1.0%, the Dow climbed 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 eked out a 0.1% gain. The Global Dow fell 0.5%. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked up to 4.03%. The dollar slipped 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.9%. Crude oil prices tumbled 4.2% to $73.90 per barrel.

Both the Dow (1.0%) and the S&P 500 (0.7%) climbed to new record highs last Wednesday, ahead of the Consumer Price Index report for September. Investors and forecasters expect the latest data to show that inflation slowed in September. The NASDAQ gained 0.6%, the Global Dow rose 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 inched up 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields continued to advance, closing at 4.06%. Crude oil prices slipped 0.2%, settling at $73.46 per barrel. The dollar increased 0.4%, while gold prices fell 0.3%.

Stocks closed slightly lower last Thursday as investors mulled the latest Consumer Price Index, which slowed to its lowest rate since the beginning of 2021, but marginally exceeded market expectations (see below). The Russell 2000 fell 0.6% and the S&P 500 lost 0.2%. The NASDAQ, the Dow, and the Global Dow all declined 0.1% or less. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked up 2.9 basis points to 4.09%. Crude oil prices, driven by rising U.S. demand in the aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, gained 3.7%, settling at $75.93 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.1%, while gold prices rose 0.8% to $2,647.00 per ounce after sliding to a three-week low in the prior session.

Last Friday saw both the Dow and the S&P 500 reach new record highs. Stocks closed generally higher to end the week as third-quarter earnings season got off on the right foot, with some major banks reporting stronger-than-expected results. The small caps of the Russell 2000 gained 2.1%, the Dow rose 1.0%, the S&P 500 added 0.6%, the Global Dow climbed 0.5%, and the NASDAQ advanced 0.3%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.11% during the session, only to slip back to 4.09%. Crude oil prices fell 0.4%, the dollar slid 0.1%, while gold prices moved up 1.3%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/11Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5442,352.7542,863.861.21%13.73%
NASDAQ15,011.3518,137.8518,342.941.13%22.19%
S&P 5004,769.835,751.075,815.031.11%21.91%
Russell 20002,027.072,212.802,234.410.98%10.23%
Global Dow4,355.285,006.955,022.790.32%15.33%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.75%-5.00%4.75%-5.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%3.98%4.09%11 bps23 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39102.48102.930.44%1.52%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$74.59$75.661.43%6.12%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,671.10$2,672.400.05%28.95%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in September, the same increase as in August and July. Prices for shelter rose 0.2% in September and prices for food rose 0.4%. Together, they contributed over 75% of the monthly all items increase. Consumer prices, less food and energy rose 0.3% in September, the same increase as in August. Energy prices fell 1.9% last month after declining 0.8% in August. The all items index rose 2.4% for the 12 months ended September, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. Prices less food and energy rose 3.3% over the last 12 months.
  • The Producer Price Index was unchanged in September after advancing 0.2% in August. For the year, producer prices rose 1.8%. In September, prices for services rose 0.2% but were offset by a 0.2% decline in prices for goods. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services inched up 0.1% in September after rising 0.2% in August. For the 12 months ended in September, prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.2%.
  • The report on international trade in goods and services, released October 8, revealed that the trade deficit in August was $70.4 billion, down $8.5 billion, or 10.8%, from the July estimate. August exports were $271.8 billion, $5.3 billion, or 2.0%, more than July exports. August imports were $342.2 billion, $3.2 billion, or 0.9%, less than July imports. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $47.1 billion, or 8.9%, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $79.0 billion, or 3.9%. Imports increased $126.1 billion, or 4.9%.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.136 per gallon on October 7, $0.043 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.548 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 7, the East Coast price fell $0.051 to $3.009 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.069 to $3.036 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.030 to $2.725 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.144 to $3.271 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.015 to $4.027 per gallon.
  • For the week ended October 5, there were 258,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s level. This is the highest level for initial claims since August 5, 2023. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended September 28 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended September 28 was 1,861,000, an increase of 42,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended September 21 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Rhode Island (1.8%), Washington (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), Connecticut (1.3%), and Pennsylvania (1.3%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended September 28 were in Michigan (+1,187), Washington (+892), Indiana (+657), California (+638), and Iowa (+568), while the largest decreases were in Georgia (-1,237), Florida (-919), Texas (-532), Virginia (-481), and New York (-451).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The report on import and export prices for September is available this week. August saw a decrease in both import and export prices. The retail sales report for September is also out this week. Retail and food services sales ticked up 0.1% in August, beating expectations of forecasters. Industrial production rebounded in August after lagging in July. Finally, the September report on housing starts, building permits, and housing completions is released this week. Receding mortgage rates have renewed builder confidence, which led to a rise in building permits and housing starts in August.

What I’m Watching This Week – 7 October 2024

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 4, 2024)

Investors were confronted with plenty of market-moving information last week as they waded through negative developments and some positive signs. Growing tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector (see below) were causes for concern, while a better-than-expected jobs report (see below) helped alleviate some of those worries, at least for a time. The S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow ended a very volatile week on the plus side, while the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow closed the week lower. Among the market sectors, energy surged by more than 8.5%, while communication services, financials, and industrials also closed higher. The remaining sectors declined, led by real estate and materials. Ten-year Treasury yields surged to their highest level in nearly two months as the robust labor report cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve needed to aggressively cut interest rates.

The stock market spent most of last Monday in negative territory, facing selling pressures, only to rally at the close of the session. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each gained 0.4%, the Russell 2000 added 0.2%, while the Dow was flat. The Global Dow declined 0.5%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 5.3 basis points to settle at 3.80%. Crude oil prices inched up 0.1% to $68.24 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices fell marginally.

Stocks slid lower last Tuesday amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Investors also had to consider a slowdown in manufacturing activity (see below), although job openings rose unexpectedly in August, evidencing that the lag in the labor market may not be quite so pronounced. All of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value, led by the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ, each of which declined 1.5%. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, the Global Dow dipped 0.5%, and the Dow slid 0.4%. Crude oil prices rose 3.6%, reaching $70.64 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 5.9 basis points to 3.74%. The dollar rose 0.4% against a basket of currencies, while gold prices advanced 0.8%.

The benchmark indexes listed here closed mostly higher last Wednesday, with the exception of the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow, each of which slipped 0.1% lower. The S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ inched up by about 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose to 3.78%. Crude oil prices continued to advance, settling at $70.90 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%, while gold prices fell 0.4%.

Stocks closed lower last Thursday as escalating tensions in the Middle East and the dock workers’ strike were concerns for investors. The small caps of the Russell 2000 led the declines, falling 0.7%, followed by the Global Dow (-0.6%), the Dow (-0.4%), and the S&P 500 (-0.2%). The NASDAQ dipped less than 0.1%. Crude oil prices vaulted 5.3%, reaching $73.82 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 6.5 basis points to 3.85%. The dollar and gold prices each rose 0.3%.

Last Friday saw stocks move higher on the heels of a strong jobs report, which quelled, at least temporarily, investors’ concerns over Middle East tensions. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5%, followed by the NASDAQ (1.2%), the S&P 500 (0.9%), and the Dow (0.8%), which reached another record high. The Global Dow rose 0.6%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries vaulted 13.1 basis points to close at 3.98% as bond prices declined. Crude oil prices gained 1.0%, the dollar advanced 0.5%, while gold prices slid 0.3%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2023 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/4Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA37,689.5442,313.0042,352.750.09%12.37%
NASDAQ15,011.3518,119.5918,137.850.10%20.83%
S&P 5004,769.835,738.175,751.070.22%20.57%
Russell 20002,027.072,224.702,212.80-0.53%9.16%
Global Dow4,355.285,064.455,006.95-1.14%14.96%
fed. funds target rate5.25%-5.50%4.75%-5.00%4.75%-5.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries3.86%3.74%3.98%24 bps12 bps
US Dollar-DXY101.39100.39102.482.08%1.08%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.30$68.57$74.598.78%4.61%
Gold-GC=F$2,072.50$2,674.90$2,671.10-0.14%28.88%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The employment sector showed major signs of life in September. Total employment expanded by 254,000 last month, exceeding expectations and well above the 12-month average of 203,000. The September increase follows upward revisions to both the July and August estimates, which combined were 72,000 higher than previously reported. The unemployment rate, at 4.1%, ticked down 0.1 percentage point from August, while the number of unemployed decreased by 281,000 to 6.8 million. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%, while the employment-population ratio rose 0.2 percentage point to 60.2%. The number of unemployed for at least 27 weeks increased by 97,000 to 1.6 million. In September, the long-term unemployed accounted for 23.7% of all unemployed people. In September, average hourly earnings increased by $0.13, or 0.4%, to $35.36. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%. The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in September.
  • According to the S&P Global survey of purchasing managers, the manufacturing sector moved deeper into contraction in September. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ remained below the 50.0 no-change mark in September, dipping to 47.3 from 47.9 in August. The manufacturing sector regressed for three consecutive months, with September’s reading the most pronounced decline since June 2023. Central to the drop in manufacturing was a sharp fall in new orders amid a slowdown in the overall economy, and uncertainty around the upcoming presidential election.
  • While the manufacturing sector may be waning, the services sector is showing strength. A reduction in interest rates helped increase new orders and boost services activity in September, according to the latest S&P Global survey of purchasing managers. New business continued to rise solidly, leading to a build-up of unfinished work as companies were cautious with regards to hiring in the face of strong cost pressures. In fact, input prices rose at the joint-fastest pace in a year, with selling price inflation also accelerating. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index posted 55.2 in September, down from 55.7 in August but still a marked monthly increase in the services sector, which has now increased in each of the last 20 months.
  • The number of job openings increased in August, according to the latest data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. At roughly 8.0 million, job openings increased by 329,000. The number of hires was essentially unchanged at 5.3 million, while total separations, at 5.0 million, declined by 317,000.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.179 per gallon on September 30, $0.006 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.619 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 30, the East Coast price rose $0.008 to $3.060 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.028 to $3.105 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.038 to $2.695 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.019 to $3.415 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.069 to $4.042 per gallon.
  • For the week ended September 28, there were 225,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended September 21 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended September 21 was 1,826,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended September 14 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Rhode Island (1.8%), Washington (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Illinois (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended September 21 were in Virginia (+688), Washington (+596), Ohio (+584), Louisiana (+382), and North Carolina (+236), while the largest decreases were in New York (-1,510), Texas (-1,450), South Carolina (-641), Wisconsin (-532), and Massachusetts (-531).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The latest inflation data is available this week, with the release of the Consumer Price Index for September. The CPI inched up 0.2% in August and 2.5% since August 2023. Most forecasters predict September’s data should be in line with the data from August.