Tag: Investing

The Markets (as of market close December 27, 2024)

Christmas week saw stocks climb higher, despite a tumble last Friday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, led by the Global Dow and the NASDAQ. Scant holiday trading amplified market moves during the week. Information technology led the market sectors, with health care, communication services, utilities, financials, and energy also outperforming. Bond values receded, pushing yields higher. The dollar edged up, while gold prices ticked lower. Crude oil prices gained after falling the previous week.

A surge in tech shares helped drive stocks generally higher last Monday. The NASDAQ led the benchmark indexes listed here, climbing 1.0%, followed by the S&P 500 (0.7%), the Global Dow (0.4%), and the Dow (0.2%). The small caps of the Russell 2000 dipped 0.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 7.5 basis points to 4.59%. Crude oil prices inched up 0.2% to settle at $69.59 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%, while gold prices fell 0.7%.

A “Santa Claus rally” saw stocks move higher on Christmas Eve. Megacaps led the surge, propelling the NASDAQ up 1.4%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.1%, the Russell 2000 climbed 1.0%, the Dow rose 0.9%, and the Global Dow added 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields were unchanged from the prior day, closing at 4.59%. Crude oil prices gained 1.2% to reach $70.10 per barrel. The dollar and gold prices gained 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Stocks moved very little last Thursday during a light day of trading. The Russell 2000 was the only index listed here that made a noticeable move after gaining 0.9%, while the Global Dow inched up 0.2%. The NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Dow each moved less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.57%. Crude oil prices fell 0.8% to close at $69.55 per barrel. The dollar ticked down 0.1%, while gold prices gained 0.7%.

Last Friday saw stocks tumble, rocked by a late-week megacap swoon. The Russell 2000 lost 1.6%, the NASDAQ declined 1.5%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Dow dropped 0.8%, and the Global Dow slipped 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields inched up to 4.61%. The dollar dipped 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.8%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• New orders for long-lasting goods decreased 1.1% in November following an 0.8% increase in October. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, led the overall decrease, declining 2.9%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in November decreased 0.6%. New orders for defense capital goods in November declined 12.5%.
• November saw sales of new single-family homes increase 5.9% from the previous month and 8.7% above the November 2023 rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2024 was $402,600. The average sales price was $484,800. The inventory of new houses for sale at the end of November represented a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate.
• The international trade in goods deficit rose 4.7% in November. Exports increased 4.4% and imports advanced 4.5%. Since November 2023, the international trade in goods deficit increased by 16.1%. During that period, exports rose 6.1% and imports advanced 9.6%.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.024 per gallon on December 23, $0.008 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.092 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 23, the East Coast price ticked down $0.046 to $2.945 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.051 to $2.935 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.085 to $2.647 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price gained $0.048 to $2.887 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.010 to $3.775 per gallon.
• For the week ended December 21, there were 219,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 14 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 14 was 1,910,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 7 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), Alaska (2.1%), Minnesota (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Illinois (1.7%), Montana (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 14 were in Nebraska (+392), Kentucky (+378), Colorado (+169), Rhode Island (+141), and Delaware (+98), while the largest decreases were in New York (-6,807), Texas (-5,405), California (-5,279), Pennsylvania (-4,724), and Georgia (-4,662).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This is expected to be a slow week in the market and for important economic data. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey for December is available this week. The manufacturing sector has been slowly picking up steam heading into the new year. It is possible that the December purchasing managers’ index will actually show growth, which hasn’t happened in quite some time.

The Markets (as of market close November 29, 2024)

Thanksgiving week proved to be a positive one for stocks. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed higher, led by the Dow and the Russell 2000. Financials, consumer staples, and industrials led the market sectors, with only energy and communication services declining. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell for the second consecutive week. Crude oil prices declined despite an apparent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The dollar lost about 1.7% for the week, while gold prices declined 2.0%.

The Dow reached a new high last Monday as stocks closed generally higher. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%) and the Global Dow (0.5%). The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each climbed 0.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.27% after falling 14.5 basis points. The dollar, which had been rallying, declined 0.6%, while gold prices snapped a five-day winning streak after losing 3.1%. Crude oil prices slid 3.1%, settling at $69.07 per barrel.

Both the S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.3%) reached record highs last Tuesday. The NASDAQ gained 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) and the Global Dow (-0.1%) declined. Investors wrestled with the potential economic effects of President-elect Trump’s trade tariffs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at 4.30%. Crude oil prices slid to $68.63 per barrel. Gold prices rose 0.6% and the dollar inched up 0.1%.

Stocks fell the day before Thanksgiving as each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the session in the red, with the exception of the Russell 2000, which ticked up 0.1%. The NASDAQ fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Dow declined 0.3%. The Global Dow was flat. Crude oil prices closed at $68.76 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.24%. The dollar declined 0.9%, while gold prices rose 0.6%. Investors saw the likelihood of another interest rate reduction in December diminish after the latest data showed inflation ticked up in October and over the last 12 months (see below), indicating that movement toward the Fed’s 2.0% target has stalled.

The week ended as it began with stocks closing higher. The S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow (0.4%) reached record highs. The NASDAQ gained 0.8%, the Global Dow rose 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 edged up 0.4%. Ten-year Treasury yields lost 6.4 basis points to close at 4.17%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.1%, while gold prices increased 0.7%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The second estimate for the third-quarter gross domestic product revealed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, unchanged from the initial estimate. In the second quarter, GDP increased 3.0%. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, rose 3.5% in the third quarter. Nonresidential fixed investment advanced 3.8%, while residential fixed investment declined 5.0%. Exports rose 7.5% and imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, advanced 10.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index increased 1.5% and 2.1% excluding food and energy.
• Personal income increased 0.6% in October, while disposable personal income, personal income less personal current taxes, increased 0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. The PCE price index increased 0.2% in October. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3%. Since October 2023, the PCE price index rose 2.3%. The PCE price index less food and energy increased 2.8% for the year.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 0.2% following two consecutive monthly decreases. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, advancing 0.5%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in October increased 1.4%, while new orders for defense capital goods in October decreased 4.0%.
• The advance report on international trade in goods for October showed the deficit was $99.1 billion, down $9.6 billion, or 8.8%, from the September estimate. Exports of goods for October were $168.7 billion, $5.6 billion, or 3.2%, less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $267.8 billion, $15.2 billion, or 5.4% less than September imports.
• Sales of new single-family homes dropped 17.3% in October and fell 9.4% over the last 12 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800. Inventory in October sat at a supply of 9.5 months.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.044 per gallon on November 25, $0.002 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.194 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 25, the East Coast price ticked up $0.008 to $3.011 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.016 to $2.866 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.006 to $2.635 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.089 to $2.828 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.009 to $3.884 per gallon.
• For the week ended November 23, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 16 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 16 was 1,907,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 9 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (1.9%), Washington (1.9%), Alaska (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Illinois (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), and New York (1.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 16 were in Utah (+538), Minnesota (+381), Missouri (+252), Idaho (+200), and Louisiana (+199), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,088), Georgia (-1,952), New Jersey (-1,423), Texas (-1,160), and Ohio (-1,125).

Eye on the Week Ahead

One of the most closely watched of all economic indicators is the employment situation report, which is released this week for November. October saw the labor force increase by a scant 12,000. However, Hurricane Milton may have impacted the surveys that support the employment data. It would not be surprising to see October’s figures increase as more data is made available. However, the consensus for November, at about 125,000, is well below the monthly average for the year.

The Markets (as of market close November 22, 2024)

Wall Street enjoyed a solid week of gains, rebounding from the prior week’s losses. Each of the benchmark indexes climbed higher, led by the small caps of the Russell 2000, as investors moved from mega caps to cyclical stocks, which are influenced largely by the economy. Communication services was the only market sector to close in the red, while the remaining sectors moved higher, led by utilities, consumer staples, real estate, and materials. Crude oil prices gained nearly 6.5% last week, driven by increasing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The dollar and gold prices moved higher as investors sought safe-haven assets, in light of increasing geopolitical risks.

Last week began with stocks closing generally higher as the information technology sector rebounded from a tough prior week. The NASDAQ and the Global Dow each advanced 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Russell 2000 ticked up 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.1%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slid to 4.41%. Crude oil prices rose 3.3% to settle at $69.22 per barrel, driven higher by growing concerns over supply cuts. The dollar declined 0.5%, while gold prices advanced 1.8%.

Stocks closed mostly higher last Tuesday, led by the NASDAQ (1.0%), followed by the Russell 2000 (0.8%), and the S&P 500 (0.4%). The Dow dipped 0.3% and the Global Dow fell less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed at 4.37%, a decrease of 3.5 basis points. Gold prices rose for the second straight session after gaining 0.8%. The dollar dipped 0.1%. Crude oil prices increased 0.7% to $69.64 per barrel.

The Dow ended a streak of daily losses last Wednesday after closing up 0.3%. The Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 were flat, while the Global Dow (-0.3%), and the NASDAQ (-0.1%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields closed up 1.7 basis points to 4.41%. Crude oil prices slipped 0.2%, falling to $69.12 per barrel. The dollar rose 0.4% and gold prices advanced 0.8%. Investors were pensive as they awaited the earnings report from a major AI company.

Wall Street saw a rally last Thursday, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here closing higher as investors shifted toward cyclical stocks. The economy showed evidence of strengthening as jobless claims fell to nearly a seven-month low (see below), and sales of existing homes rebounded in October. The Russell 2000 led the benchmarks, gaining 1.7%, the Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 and the Global Dow each climbed 0.5%, while the NASDAQ ticked up less than 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 2.6 basis points to reach 4.43%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.0%, settling at $70.13 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The dollar (0.3%) and gold prices (0.8%) advanced.

The markets closed on a positive note last Friday. The Russell 2000 gained 1.8% to lead the benchmark indexes listed here, followed by the Dow (1.0%), the Global Dow (0.4%), the S&P 500 (0.3%), and the NASDAQ (0.2%). Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.41%. Crude oil continued to surge, climbing 1.6%. The dollar and gold prices also advanced.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• October saw a downturn in new home construction and completions. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of issued residential building permits fell 0.6% in October and 7.7% from a year earlier. Building permits for single-family homes rose 0.5% last month. Housing starts dropped 3.1% in October and were 4.0% under the October 2023 estimate. Single-family housing starts decreased 6.9% in October. Housing completions declined 4.4% last month but were 16.8% above the October 2023 rate. Completions of single-family homes in October were 1.4% below the September rate.
• Sales of existing homes rose in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing-home sales rose 3.4% last month and were up 2.9% since October 2023. The expanding economy, job growth, and increased inventory helped drive sales higher. Total housing inventory sat at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.3 months in September but up from 3.6 months in October 2023. The median existing-home price in October was $407,200 ($406,700 in September), up 4.0% from one year ago ($391,600). Single-family home sales accelerated 3.5% in October and were 4.1% above the prior year’s pace. The median existing single-family home price was $412,200 in October, ahead of the September price of $411,400, and 4.1% above the October 2023 price of $396,000. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.78% as of November 14. That’s down from 6.79% one week ago and 7.44% one year ago.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.046 per gallon on November 18, $0.006 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.243 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 18, the East Coast price ticked up $0.001 to $3.003 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.016 to $2.882 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price dipped $0.001 to $2.629 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.158 to $2.917 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.049 to $3.875 per gallon.
• For the week ended November 16, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 9 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 9 was 1,908,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 2 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Washington (1.7%), Alaska (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), Oregon (1.4%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 9 were in California (+5,906), New Jersey (+2,439), New York (+2,327), Minnesota (+1,889), and Texas (+1,275), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-4,072), Kansas (-599), Wisconsin (-436), Ohio (-305), and North Dakota (-284).

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s plenty of potentially market-moving economic information released this week. Two reports will draw the most attention: the second estimate of third-quarter GDP and the report on personal income and outlays. The October release showed GDP advanced 2.8%, while consumer spending rose 3.7%. Also last month, personal income rose 0.3%, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%, and consumer prices rose 0.2%.

The Markets (as of market close November 15, 2024)

Last week saw stocks close markedly lower as investors were discouraged by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who put a damper on the likelihood of another interest rate decrease this year. Among the market sectors, energy, financials, and utilities closed the week higher, while the remaining sectors ended the week in the red, led by health care, which saw stocks fall after President-elect Trump’s appointment of Robert Kennedy as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered near the highest level since June, reflecting the diminished probability of interest rate cuts. Crude oil and gold prices declined, while the dollar advanced.

Stocks closed higher last Monday as both the Dow (0.7%) and the S&P 500 (0.1%) reached record highs. The Russell 2000 led the benchmark indexes listed here, gaining 1.5%, while the NASDAQ and the Global Dow each ticked up 0.1%. Consumer discretionary and financials led the market sectors. Crypto-related companies saw sharp gains. Gold dropped 2.4%, extending losses and falling to its lowest level in a month. Crude oil prices declined 3.1% to $68.20 per barrel, pulled lower by a strong dollar (+0.5%) and concerns over China’s waning demand for crude. The bond market was closed in observance of Veterans Day.

The market saw its rally end last Tuesday. Investor preference for risk cooled amid concerns about the economy and inflation, which prompted profit-taking following recent market highs. The Russell 2000 (-1.8%) and the Global Dow (-1.3%) declined the furthest, followed by the Dow (-0.9%), the S&P 500 (-0.3%), and the NASDAQ (-0.1%). Ten-year Treasury yields gained 12.4 basis points to 4.43%. Crude oil prices closed at $68.10 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.4%. Gold prices fell 0.4%.

Of the benchmark indexes listed here, the Dow and the S&P 500 barely edged higher last Wednesday, while the Russell 2000 (-0.9%), the NASDAQ (-0.3%), and the Global Dow (-0.2%) declined. Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 4.45%. Crude oil prices dipped to $68.04 per barrel. The dollar continued to rise, gaining 0.4%, while gold prices fell 1.0%. Investors may be exercising caution following the latest Consumer Price Index (see below), which showed disinflation has stalled a bit.

Stocks declined on Thursday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that there was no urgency to lower interest rates given the strength of the economy. The small caps of the Russell 2000 declined for the third straight day after dropping 1.4%. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 each fell 0.6%. The Dow lost 0.5% and the Global Dow dipped 0.3%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped 3.3 basis points to end the session at 4.41%. Crude oil prices increased for the first time last week, closing at $68.70 per barrel. The dollar advanced 0.4%, while gold prices declined 0.5%.

Last Friday saw stocks close sharply lower with each of the benchmark indexes listed here losing value. The NASDAQ dropped 2.2%, the Russell 2000 fell 1.4%, the S&P 500 declined 1.3%, the Dow decreased 0.7%, and the Global Dow slid 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields closed up at 4.44%. Crude oil prices fell 2.4%, the dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices declined for the fifth straight session.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in October, the same increase as in each of the previous three months. For the 12 months ended in October, the CPI increased 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from the same period ended in September. Prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October and 3.3% over the last 12 months. Prices for shelter rose 0.4% in October, accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Food prices also increased over the month. Prices for energy were unchanged over the month after declining 1.9% in September.
• The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in October following a 0.1% bump in September. Producer prices moved up 2.4% for the 12 months ended in October. Most of the October increase can be traced to a 0.3% in crease in prices for services. Goods prices inched up 0.1%. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3% in October after moving up 0.1% in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5%.
• Retail and food services sales rose 0.4% in October and increased 2.8% for the 12 months ended in October. Retail trade sales were up 0.4% last month and up 2.6% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 7.0% from October 2023, while food services and drinking places sales increased 4.3% over the same period.
• Import prices rose 0.3% in October following a 0.4% decline in September. The October increase was the largest one-month advance since April 2024. Fuel prices rose 1.5% last month after declining 7.5% in September, marking the largest monthly increase since April 2024. Despite the October increase, import fuel prices declined 13.6% for the year ended in October. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.2% for the second consecutive month in October. Import prices increased 0.8% from October 2023 to October 2024. Prices for exports increased 0.8% in October, which was the largest monthly rise since August 2023. Higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports in October contributed to the monthly increase. Despite the October rise, export prices declined 0.1% over the past year.
• According to the Federal Reserve’s latest report, industrial production declined 0.3% in October after falling 0.5% the previous month. A strike at a major producer of civilian aircraft, coupled with the lingering effects of Hurricanes Milton and Helene contributed to the October decline. Manufacturing fell 0.5% last month, while mining and utilities rose 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. Industrial production in October was 0.3% below its year-earlier level.
• October 2024, the first month of fiscal year 2025, saw a monthly government deficit of $257.5 billion, well above the $66.6 billion deficit reported for October 2023. Government receipts were $326.8 billion, while expenditures totaled $584.2 billion.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.052 per gallon on November 11, $0.017 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.297 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 11, the East Coast price increased $0.010 to $3.002 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.071 to $2.866 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.011 to $2.630 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.028 to $3.075 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.021 to $3.924 per gallon.
• For the week ended November 9, there were 217,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 2 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 2 was 1,873,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended October 26 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Washington (1.7%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Alaska (1.5%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 2 were in California (+3,825), Michigan (+3,439), Ohio (+1,911), New Jersey (+1,317), and Kansas (+870), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,530), Georgia (-1,303), Missouri (-797), New York (-469), and Washington (-364).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The focus is on the housing sector this week. The report on housing starts for October is out on Tuesday. September saw the number of housing starts and issued building permits decline. Also out this week is the report on existing home sales for October. Sales fell in September from the previous month as did the median sales price.

The Markets (as of market close October 25, 2024)

Tech shares helped the NASDAQ close up last week. The remaining indexes listed here didn’t fare as well. Renewed concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy dampened investor appetite for risk. Bond prices also faded during the week, driving yields higher. Crude oil prices climbed higher as investors monitored ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices continued to advance and have risen over 33.0% from the beginning of the year.

Stocks mostly retreated last Monday following their longest weekly rally of the year. Of the benchmark indexes listed here, only the NASDAQ (0.3%) posted a gain. The remaining indexes closed in the red, led by the Russell 2000 (-1.6%), followed by the Dow and the Global Dow (-0.8%). The S&P 500 dipped 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 10.9 basis points to close at 4.18%, the highest level since late July. Among the market sectors, utilities, materials, financials, real estate, and information technology closed higher, while health care and energy declined. Crude oil prices closed up 1.8% to $70.45 per barrel. The dollar (0.5%) and gold prices (0.2%) posted gains.

In what was akin to the previous day’s performance, stocks closed mostly lower last Tuesday. Once again, the NASDAQ was the only benchmark index to post a gain after ticking up 0.2%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 were essentially unchanged. The Global Dow fell 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 declined 0.3%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries inched up to 4.20%. Crude oil prices jumped 2.4% to settle at $72.24 per barrel. The dollar inched up 0.1%, while gold prices rose 0.9%.

Each of the benchmark indexes listed here retreated last Wednesday as bond yields rose amid investor concerns over further interest rate cuts. Several major tech companies saw their stock values decline, which also placed a drag on Wall Street. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6%, the Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P 500 declined 0.9%, the Russell 2000 lost 0.8%, and the Global Dow dipped 0.6%. Bond values also tumbled, pushing yields higher, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing 3.8 basis points to close the session at 4.24%. Crude oil prices fell 1.0%, falling to $71.03 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0,3%, while gold prices declined 1.1%.

Stocks closed mostly higher last Thursday with only the Dow (-0.3%) sliding lower. Investors reacted to the latest earnings reports, particularly one involving a major electric automotive manufacturer. The NASDAQ rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 ended a three-session slide after gaining 0.2%. The Russell 2000 also edged up 0.2%, while the Global Dow inched up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.20%. Crude oil prices retreated for the second straight day, settling at $70.47 per barrel. The dollar edged lower, while gold prices (0.7%) recouped some of the losses from the previous session.

Gains in tech shares helped drive the NASDAQ (0.6%) higher last Friday. A decline in financial shares was enough to overshadow tech gains, resulting in losses for the Dow (-0.6%), the Russell 2000 (-0.5%), and the Global Dow (-0.4%). The S&P 500 ended the session flat. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.23%. Crude oil prices reversed losses from the previous two days, advancing 2.1%. The dollar and gold prices each gained 0.2%.

Stock Market Indexes

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• September, the last month of the fiscal year, saw the government budget enjoy a surplus of $64.3 billion, well off from August’s deficit of $380.1 billion. For fiscal year 2024, the deficit was $1,832.8 trillion, $137.6 billion above the FY23 deficit of $1,695.2 trillion. Compared to the prior fiscal year, FY24 saw government receipts increase by roughly $479.5 billion, while government outlays increased by $617.0 billion.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased 0.8%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This followed a 0.8% August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.1%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease after declining 3.1%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in September decreased 4.5%. New orders for defense capital goods rose 6.4% last month. Since September 2023, new orders for durable goods have decreased 1.5%.
• Existing-home sales decreased 1.0% in September and 3.5% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price fell 2.4% in September to $404,500 but was 3.0% above the September 2023 price. The inventory of unsold existing homes, at a supply of 4.3 months, rose by 1.5% from the prior month. Sales of single-family homes edged lower by 0.6% in September and fell 2.3% from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $409,000 in September, down from $419,000 in August but up from $397,400 in September 2023. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.44% as of October 17. That’s up from 6.32% from one week ago but down from 7.63% one year ago.
• Sales of new single-family homes in September reached the highest level since May 2023 after rising 4.1% over the prior month’s total. Last month’s sales were 6.3% above the September 2023 estimate. The median sales price of new homes sold in September 2024 was $426,300. The average sales price was $501,000. The estimate of new homes for sale at the end of September represented a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.144 per gallon on October 21, $0.027 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.389 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 21, the East Coast price rose $0.012 to $3.054 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.094 to $3.006 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched down $0.015 to $2.720 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.037 to $3.221 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.013 to $4.034 per gallon.
• For the week ended October 19, there were 227,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended October 12 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended October 5 was 1,897,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended October 5 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Washington (1.8%), Nevada (1.6%), Rhode Island (1.6%), Massachusetts (1.5%), New York (1.5%), Illinois (1.4%), Alaska (1.3%), Oregon (1.3%), and Pennsylvania (1.3%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended October 12 were in Georgia (+3,293), New York (+2,340), Pennsylvania (+1,379), Texas (+886), and South Carolina (+779), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-7,917), Florida (-3,257), Ohio (-2,556), North Carolina (-2,365), and Indiana (-2,173).

Eye on the Week Ahead

There are several market-moving economic reports released this week. Among those reports is the initial estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter. The second quarter GDP estimated that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, is released within the personal income and outlays report. August saw prices tick up 0.1%, while the annual rate of growth rose 2.2%. Lastly, the latest employment data for October is released on Friday. September’s report revealed an unexpected 254,000 new jobs, a figure well above consensus estimates. It is likely that the September figure is adjusted downward.