Stocks moved generally higher last week, largely driven by solid corporate earnings from some big tech firms. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each reached record highs during the week, extending a significant rally. The push higher was moderated somewhat by the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on future rate cuts. Despite a lack of updated economic information, the Fed identified concerns about the potential for a weakening job market and stubbornly elevated inflation rates. While trade tensions between the U.S. and China were tempered following a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, analysts cautioned that underlying issues still had not been resolved. Following last week’s interest rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, extending a three-session rally that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a three-week high. Despite an early-week rally, crude oil prices dipped lower last week, primarily due to concerns of global oversupply and increased production.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 10/31
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
47,207.12
47,562.87
0.75%
11.80%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
23,204.87
23,724.96
2.24%
22.86%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,791.69
6,840.20
0.71%
16.30%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,513.14
2,479.38
-1.34%
11.17%
Global Dow
4,863.01
6,045.76
6,022.58
-0.38%
23.84%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
3.75%-4.00%
-25 bps
-50 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
3.99%
4.10%
11 bps
-47 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
98.88
99.72
0.85%
-8.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$61.47
$60.88
-0.96%
-15.16%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$4,117.70
$4,013.40
-2.53%
52.11%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% following its meeting last week. This marks the lowest range for the federal funds rate since 2022. The decision was based on a 10-2 vote, with Stephen I. Miran preferring to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, while Jeffrey R. Schmid voted for no change to the target range for the federal funds rate. In seeking to achieve its mandate of maximum employment and inflation at 2.0% over the longer run, the Committee based its rate cut on rising downside risks to employment and elevated inflation.
The federal government enjoyed a surplus of $198 billion in September, the last month of fiscal year 2025. Government receipts were $544 billion, while expenditures totaled $346 billion. For fiscal year 2025, total receipts were $5,235 billion, while outlays were $7,010 billion, leaving a deficit of $1,775 billion, which was less than the FY2024 deficit of $1,817 billion.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.035 per gallon on October 27, $0.016 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.062 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 27, the East Coast price increased $0.008 to $2.910 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.068 to $2.873 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price climbed $0.024 to $2.580 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.025 to $2.972 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.060 to $4.106 per gallon.
Eye on the Week Ahead
There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown.
Wall Street experienced notable volatility in October, only to see each of the benchmark indexes listed here close the month higher. The NASDAQ led the benchmarks, reaching a new record high. This surge was heavily influenced by a surge in AI stocks. Several major tech firms posted favorable corporate earnings data for the third quarter. Overall, the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises, at 83.2% through quarter three, was above the long-term average. Among the market sectors, information technology, health care, and consumer discretionary moved higher, while financials and consumer staples were among the sectors that underperformed.
October saw the U.S. economy face slowing job growth, elevated inflation, and a significant monetary policy pivot by the Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates in October for a second time this year.
The government shutdown has hampered the release of important information, making it difficult to gauge the state of the economy. For instance, labor market data is lacking, as is the latest information on gross domestic product (GDP). The Consumer Price Index was released; however that data was based on information collected prior to the shutdown.
The U.S. bond market in October 2025 was primarily driven by Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, slowing labor market growth, and the impact of a U.S. government shutdown. Ten-year Treasury yields generally moved lower for the month, dropping by about 15.0 basis points from the start of October, although they bounced back somewhat toward the end of the month.
The month of October 2025 was largely characterized by a bearish trend for crude oil, with prices on track for a third consecutive monthly decline. Oversupply concerns played a large part in the downward movement of crude oil prices. The retail price of regular gasoline was $3.035 per gallon on October 27, $0.083 below the price a month earlier but $0.062 lower than the price a year ago.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Month
As of 10/31
Monthly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
46,397.89
47,562.87
2.51%
11.80%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
22,660.01
23,724.96
4.70%
22.86%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,688.46
6,840.20
2.27%
16.30%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,436.48
2,479.38
1.76%
11.17%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,917.39
6,022.58
1.78%
23.84%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
3.75%-4.00%
-25 bps
-50 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.14%
4.10%
-4 bps
-47 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.82
99.72
1.94%
-8.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$62.51
$60.88
-2.61%
-15.16%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,882.60
$4,013.40
3.37%
52.11%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.
Latest Economic Reports
The government shutdown has impacted the flow of economic data. However, information from private-sector sources has been kept current, for the most part. The following summaries are based on the most recent data available as of the date of this publication.
Employment: The latest employment report for August showed the labor market continued to weaken. Job growth ticked up 22,000 last month following an upwardly revised July increase of only 79,000. However, employment for June was also revised down by 27,000, from 14,000 to -13,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined was 21,000 lower than previously reported. In August, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%. The number of unemployed persons in August, at 7.4 million, was 148,000 above the July estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 104,000 to 1.9 million. These individuals accounted for 25.7% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in August rose 0.1 percentage point from July to 62.3%. The employment-population ratio in August, at 59.6%, was unchanged from the July estimate. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $36.53 in August. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.7%, 0.2 percentage point below the 12-month average for the period ended in July. The average workweek in August was 34.2 hours for the third month in a row.
There were 218,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended September 20, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,926,000. A year ago, there were 221,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,831,000.
FOMC/interest rates: In a 10-2 decision, the Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the lowest level since 2022. Despite the lack of economic data following the government shutdown, the Committee reached its policy decision, noting that downside risks to employment rose in recent months, while inflation remained somewhat elevated.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, advanced at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% decrease in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, helped propel the second-quarter increase, climbing 2.5% after ticking up 0.6% in the first quarter. Spending rose for both services (2.6%) and goods (2.2%). After surging 38.0% in the first quarter, imports (which are a negative in the calculation of GDP) fell 29.3% in the second quarter. However, exports also declined in the second quarter, falling 1.8%, offsetting a 0.2% advance in the first quarter. Private investment declined 13.8% in the second quarter, cutting into the 23.3% gain in the prior quarter.
September, the last month of fiscal year 2025, saw the federal budget register a surplus of $198 billion. The September surplus is partly attributable to the fact that outlays for military active duty and retirement, veterans benefits, Supplemental Security Income, and Medicare payments to health maintenance organizations and prescription drug plans accelerated into August, because September 1, 2025, the normal payment date, fell on a non-business day. September receipts were $544 billion. Customs duties (e.g., tariffs) added $30 billion to receipts in September. Government outlays in September were $346 billion. The deficit for fiscal year 2025, at $1,775 billion, was below the $1,817 billion deficit from the previous fiscal year. For fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $2,656 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $1,581 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each rose 0.4% in August after increasing 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in July. Consumer spending increased 0.6% in August after rising 0.5% the previous month. In August, the PCE price index rose 0.3% after increasing 0.2% in July. Core prices advanced 0.2% last month, unchanged from the July estimate. The PCE price index rose 2.7% since August 2024, while core prices increased 2.9% over the same period. Over the past 12 months ended in August, prices for goods increased 0.9% and prices for services rose 3.6%. Food prices increased 2.2%, while energy prices decreased 0.1%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September after increasing 0.4% in August. Over the 12 months ended in September, the CPI rose 3.0%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 12-month period ended in August. Core prices rose 0.2% in September and 3.0% since September 2024. The primary factor in the September increase was a 1.5% rise in energy prices, which was driven by a 4.1% jump in prices for gasoline. Prices for shelter rose 0.2% in September, while food prices rose 0.2%. Over the last 12 months ended in September, food prices increased 3.1%, energy prices rose 2.8%, and shelter prices advanced 3.6%.
Prices at the wholesale level have been somewhat unpredictable this year. In August, the Producer Price Index declined 0.1% after advancing 0.7% (revised) in July. Producer prices increased 2.6% for the 12 months ended in August after rising 3.1% for the 12-month period ended in July. Excluding food and energy, producer prices dipped 0.1% in August but increased 2.8% for the year. In August, prices for goods edged up 0.1% from the previous month and 2.1% since August 2024. Last month saw prices for services decline 0.2% after a 0.7% increase in July. Prices for services rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended in August, lower than the 4.0% increase over the 12 months ended in July.
Housing: Sales of existing homes increased 1.5% in September and were up 4.1% from a year earlier. The median existing-home price was $415,200 in September, lower than the August price of $422,400 but above the September 2024 estimate of $406,700. Unsold inventory of existing homes in September represented a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up 1.3% from the August total and 14.0% above supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.7% in September and 4.5% from the September 2024 figure. The median existing single-family home price was $420,700 in September ($427,700 in August), higher than the September 2024 estimate of $411,400.
Sales of new single-family homes jumped higher in August, exceeding expectations, although inventory of available new homes for sale plunged lower from the previous month. Sales of new single-family homes rose 20.5% in August and were 15.4% above the August 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in August was $413,500 ($395,100 in July), which was higher than the August 2024 estimate of $405,800. The August average sales price was $534,100 ($478,200 in July), up from the August 2024 average sales price of $475,600. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in August represented a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales pace, 17.8% below the July estimate of 9.0 months and 9.8% below the August 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.
Manufacturing: Industrial production edged up 0.1% in August after decreasing 0.4% in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after edging down 0.1% in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6% in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1%. Mining moved up 0.9%, while utilities decreased 2.0%. Total industrial production was up 0.9% since August 2024.
New orders for durable goods rose 2.9% in August after decreasing 2.7% in July. Transportation equipment drove the August increase after climbing 7.9%. New orders excluding transportation increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9%. For the 12 months ended in August, durable goods orders advanced 7.1%.
Imports and exports: Both import and export prices came in higher than expected in August. Import prices advanced 0.3% following a 0.2% decrease in July. Prices for imports were flat for the 12 months ended in August. Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in August. Import fuel prices fell 10.1% over the past 12 months. Prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.4% in August, the largest monthly advance since April 2024. Export prices rose 0.3% in August after rising 0.1% the previous month. Export prices increased 3.4% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022.
The international trade in goods deficit for August was $85.5 billion, 16.8% under the July estimate. Exports of goods for August dipped 1.3%, while imports of goods declined 7.0%. Over the 12 months ended in August, exports decreased 0.4% and imports fell 4.1%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released September 4, saw the goods and services deficit increase 32.5% in July to $78.3 billion. Exports of goods increased 0.3% to $280.5 billion in July. Imports of goods rose 5.9% to $358.8 billion. For the 12 months ended in July 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $154.3 billion, or 30.9%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $103.1 billion, or 5.5%. Imports increased $257.5 billion, or 10.9%.
International markets: October was a good month for European stock markets, with some indexes reaching record highs during the month. The key drivers in the European stock market centered around AI stocks, positive economic signals, and strong corporate earnings. While eurozone GDP rose 0.2% in the third quarter from the second, Germany and Italy saw little to no growth in the quarter. Stock markets in Asian countries experienced significant volatility, often reacting to developments in U.S.-China trade talks and key economic data. In October, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 0.3%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE advanced 2.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index jumped 14.5%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.9%.
Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence fell 1.0 point in October to 94.6 from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased 2.9 points to 71.5. The Expectations Index has been below the threshold of 80 (typically signaling a recession ahead) since February 2025.
Eye on the Month Ahead
The primary focus in November will center on when the government shutdown will end and what economic information will be available at that time.
The major stock market indexes continued to climb last week, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reaching new record highs. Investors were buoyed by a strong start to the third-quarter earnings season, particularly for major banks, with most companies reporting better-than-expected earnings and profits. On the global front, the announcement of a meeting between the United States and China muted concerns surrounding trade tariffs. While consumer prices rose in September, the advance was softer than expected, bolstering hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve following its meeting this week. Among the market sectors, information technology and communication services were the leading performers. Ten-year Treasury yields were generally lower last week, dipping below 4.0%. Gold prices, which had been on a notable rally, declined last week, largely due to profit-taking and a reduction in safe-haven demand. Crude oil prices were volatile throughout the week, falling to their lowest levels in months, only to surge later in the week after the U.S. sanctioned two major Russian oil firms.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 10/24
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
46,190.61
47,207.12
2.20%
10.96%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
22,679.97
23,204.87
2.31%
20.17%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,664.01
6,791.69
1.92%
15.47%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,452.17
2,513.14
2.49%
12.69%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,956.58
6,045.76
1.50%
24.32%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
4.00%-4.25%
0 bps
-25 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.00%
3.99%
-1 bps
-58 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
98.46
98.88
0.43%
-8.82%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$57.59
$61.47
6.74%
-14.34%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$4,249.10
$4,117.70
-3.09%
56.06%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in September following a 0.4% rise in August. Note: The September CPI data collection was completed before the government shutdown. In September, prices for gasoline rose 4.1% and were the largest factors in the overall monthly increase. Prices for energy rose 1.5% over the month. Food prices increased 0.2% last month. Consumer prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.3% in each of the two preceding months. The CPI rose 3.0% for the 12 months ended in September after rising 2.9% over the 12 months ended in August. Prices less food and energy also rose 3.0% over the last 12 months. Energy prices increased 2.8% for the year. Prices for food increased 3.1% since September 2024.
Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2025. According to National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Since September 2024, sales of existing homes have risen 4.1%. At a 4.6-month supply in September, unsold inventory was up 1.3% from the prior month and 14.0% from a year ago. The median existing-home price was $415,200 in September, down 1.7% from the August price of $422,400 but up 2.1% from one year ago ($406,700). Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.7% in September from August and 4.5% from September 2024. The median existing single-family home price in September was $420,700, down from the August price of $427,700 but higher than the September 2024 price of $411,400.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.019 per gallon on October 20, $0.042 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.125 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 20, the East Coast price decreased $0.050 to $2.902 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.007 to $2.805 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.067 to $2.556 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.052 to $2.997 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.047 to $4.166 per gallon.
Eye on the Week Ahead
There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown, with the exception of this week’s Federal Open Market meeting.
Last week saw another period of volatility in the stock market, largely driven by U.S.-China trade tensions, the ongoing government shutdown, and concerns over the health of the banking sector. Despite market swings throughout the week, stocks ultimately pushed higher by week’s end, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains. The financial sector was a major source of volatility last week after reports of loan issues related to alleged fraud at some regional banks sparked credit concerns. However, stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings data from some major banks helped quell investor consternation. The 10-year Treasury yields dipped below 4.00% midweek before climbing later in the week. Crude oil prices declined for the third straight week, while gold prices surged past $4,300.00 per ounce earlier in the week before settling at nearly $4,250.00.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 10/17
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
45,479.60
46,190.61
1.56%
8.57%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
22,204.43
22,679.97
2.14%
17.45%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,552.51
6,664.01
1.70%
13.30%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,394.59
2,452.17
2.40%
9.95%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,863.26
5,956.58
1.59%
22.49%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
4.00%-4.25%
0 bps
-25 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.05%
4.00%
-5 bps
-57 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
98.96
98.46
-0.51%
-9.20%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$58.86
$57.59
-2.16%
-19.75%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$4,027.70
$4,249.10
5.50%
61.04%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.061 per gallon on October 13, $0.063 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.110 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 13, the East Coast price ticked down $0.032 to $2.952 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.121 to $2.812 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.096 to $2.623 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.017 to $3.049 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.013 to $4.213 per gallon.
Eye on the Week Ahead
There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown.
Wall Street was marked by volatility throughout last week. Major indexes, particularly the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, reached new record highs earlier in the week, driven by an advance in AI stocks and favorable corporate earnings reports. However, the market endured a significant selloff last Friday, reversing much of the week’s earlier gains. Investor sentiment turned negative following a threat by President Trump to impose a “massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese imports, reigniting fears of a trade war. As a result, the S&P 500 declined following a seven-day winning streak. The Dow also declined, while the NASDAQ saw the sharpest losses, with tech shares among the biggest decliners. The government shutdown continued into its second week, increasing uncertainty and delaying the release of key economic data. Ten-year Treasury yields fell below 4.10%, while gold prices climbed above $4,000.00 per ounce, a jump that could be a sign of investor anxiety over deficits and potential inflation.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 10/10
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
46,758.28
45,479.60
-2.73%
6.90%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
22,780.51
22,204.43
-2.53%
14.98%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,715.79
6,552.51
-2.43%
11.41%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,476.18
2,394.59
-3.29%
7.37%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,978.91
5,863.26
-1.93%
20.57%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
4.00%-4.25%
0 bps
-25 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.11%
4.05%
-6 bps
-52 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.71
98.96
1.28%
-8.74%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$60.84
$58.86
-3.25%
-17.98%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,909.90
$4,027.70
3.01%
52.65%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.124 per gallon on October 6, $0.006 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.012 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 6, the East Coast price ticked up $0.001 to $2.984 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.005 to $2.933 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.047 to $2.719 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.044 to $3.066 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.012 to $4.226 per gallon.
Eye on the Week Ahead
Inflation data for September is ordinarily out this week with the release of the Consumer Price Index. However, the government shutdown has delayed the release of this information.
Investor optimism over AI companies and expectations of interest rate cuts helped propel stocks last week. The S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ reached record highs despite the government shutdown, which caused delays in the release of key economic data (see below). In addition to surging AI stocks, major tech and chip stocks also drove the market. Information technology and health care led the market sectors, while energy showed weakness due to slumping crude oil prices. Ten-year Treasury yields eased slightly during the week, partially due to uncertainty over the employment sector. Bearish crude oil prices were dragged lower by expectations of a production increase by OPEC+.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 10/3
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
46,247.29
46,758.28
1.10%
9.91%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
22,484.07
22,780.51
1.32%
17.97%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,643.70
6,715.79
1.09%
14.18%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,434.32
2,476.18
1.72%
11.03%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,901.84
5,978.91
1.31%
22.95%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
4.00%-4.25%
0 bps
-25 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.18%
4.11%
-7 bps
-46 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
98.14
97.71
-0.44%
-9.89%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$65.32
$60.84
-6.86%
-15.22%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,797.30
$3,909.90
2.97%
48.19%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
Ordinarily the Bureau of Labor Statistics would release the jobs data for September and the weekly unemployment statistics. However, that information is unavailable due to the government shutdown.
The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. The number of job openings for July was revised up by 27,000 to 7.2 million. In August, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million), and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
Manufacturing expanded in September but at a slower pace than in the previous month. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ registered 52.0 in September, down from 53.0 in August. Although up for a ninth successive month, new orders rose in September only modestly and at a pace below the survey average. Exports were a source of demand weakness, falling overall for a third month in a row. Tariffs were reported to have weighed on export sales, especially to Canada and Mexico.
Similar to the manufacturing sector, growth in the services sector signaled a weaker expansion of business activity in September. Slower growth was linked to a softer expansion of new work despite an improvement in foreign demand for the first time in six months. On the price front, cost pressures remained elevated, driven principally by tariffs and higher salary payments, with increases passed on to purchasers. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index™ recorded 54.2 in September, down from 54.5 in August but above the 50.0 no-change mark that separates growth from contraction.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.118 per gallon on September 29, $0.055 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.061 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 29, the East Coast price decreased $0.047 to $2.983 per gallon; the Midwest price declined $0.080 to $2.928 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.044 to $2.672 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.074 to $3.110 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.034 to $4.238 per gallon.
Eye on the Week Ahead
There isn’t a great deal of economic data this week. However, investors likely will be looking ahead to next week when the latest Consumer Price Index is released.
The Markets (third quarter through September 30, 2025)
The third quarter of 2025 may best be characterized by continued strength in the equity market, moderating but resilient economic activity, and a shift in the Federal Reserve policy toward interest rate cuts. Gross domestic product rebounded notably from a lackluster opening quarter and corporate earnings grew, while inflationary pressures showed signs of accelerating. Overall, the economy in general, and the stock market in particular, tried to gauge the impact of President Trump’s tariffs, which created significant volatility early in the quarter, with major indices briefly hitting bear market territory. However, a subsequent “pause” in some tariff policies and the general resilience of the market allowed equities to rebound sharply, with investors looking past the short-term disruption.
U.S. stocks enjoyed robust growth in the third quarter, with each of the major indexes reaching multiple record highs, despite economic policy uncertainty, primarily focused on the impact of tariffs, and lingering geopolitical risks. Each of the stock market indexes listed here closed higher in the third quarter compared to the previous three-month period. Even the small caps of the Russell 2000 posted significant third-quarter gains, suggesting a broadening of market strength. The ongoing rally was heavily concentrated in the information technology and communication services sectors, driven by AI and megacap tech stocks. Each of the remaining stock market sectors ended the quarter higher, with the exception of consumer staples, which closed the quarter in the red.
In what many believe was the most significant development of the quarter, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, marking the first rate cut since the end of 2024. Despite the rate cut, inflationary pressures remained a key concern. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, increased on an annual basis through August, as did the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Both measures of inflation exceeded the Fed’s 2.0% target (see below).
While inflation moved higher, the labor market slowed to a near standstill in the third quarter, which likely contributed to the Fed’s decision to cut rates. Job growth slowed significantly, the unemployment rate moved higher, while the number of job openings fell to its lowest level since 2021. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits increased by nearly 100,000 over the last 12 months.
Corporate earnings reached new highs in the third quarter. The estimated 12-month earnings growth rate, according to FactSet, is projected to be about 7.9%, which would mark the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for S&P 500 companies. Eight of the 11 market sectors are projected to report year-over-year earnings growth, led by information technology, utilities, materials, and financials. Energy and consumer staples are predicted to show earnings declines. The number of S&P 500 companies expected to show positive earnings per share (EPS) growth for the third quarter is higher than average.
The U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, showed resilience, accelerating at an annualized rate of 3.8%, following a 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter. The U.S. real estate market continued to be impacted by relatively high interest rates, low inventory, and rising home prices. However, August (the most recent data available) showed home prices began to fall and inventory increased. Mortgage interest rates started to decline, with Fannie Mae forecasting 30-year fixed mortgage rates to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.4% and 5.9%, respectively.
Crude oil prices fluctuated somewhat throughout the third quarter, with prices moving from about $70.00 per barrel in July to $62.50 per barrel in September. The downward trend in crude oil prices was linked to concerns about softening global demand, projections of increasing supply, and geopolitical unrest, particularly regarding the Ukraine/Russia war. The retail price for regular gasoline was $3.173 per gallon on September 22, $0.026 above the price a month earlier but $0.012 below the price from a year ago.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
As of September 30
Monthly Change
Quarterly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
46,397.89
1.87%
5.22%
9.06%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
22,660.01
5.61%
11.24%
17.34%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,688.46
3.53%
7.79%
13.72%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,436.48
2.96%
12.02%
9.25%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,917.39
3.15%
7.22%
21.68%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
-25 bps
-25 bps
-25 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.14%
-8 bps
-9 bps
-43 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.82
0.03%
1.05%
-9.79%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$62.51
-2.34%
-3.96%
-12.89%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,882.60
10.40%
16.97%
47.15%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Latest Economic Reports
Employment: The latest employment report for August showed the labor market continued to weaken. Job growth ticked up 22,000 last month following an upwardly revised July increase of only 79,000. However, employment for June was also revised down by 27,000, from 14,000 to -13,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined was 21,000 lower than previously reported. In August, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%. The number of unemployed persons in August, at 7.4 million, was 148,000 above the July estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 104,000 to 1.9 million. These individuals accounted for 25.7% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in August rose 0.1 percentage point from July to 62.3%. The employment-population ratio in August, at 59.6%, was unchanged from the July estimate. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $36.53 in August. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.7%, 0.2 percentage point below the 12-month average for the period ended in July. The average workweek in August was 34.2 hours for the third month in a row.
There were 218,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended September 20, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,926,000. A year ago, there were 221,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,831,000.
FOMC/interest rates: As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%. In reaching its decision, the Committee indicated that it was trying to balance conflicting risks, with the downside risks to employment having risen, while inflationary pressures remained somewhat elevated. The FOMC projected more rate cuts this year and in 2026.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, advanced at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% decrease in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, helped propel the second-quarter increase, climbing 2.5% after ticking up 0.6% in the first quarter. Spending rose for both services (2.6%) and goods (2.2%). After surging 38.0% in the first quarter, imports (which are a negative in the calculation of GDP) fell 29.3% in the second quarter. However, exports also declined in the second quarter, falling 1.8%, offsetting a 0.2% advance in the first quarter. Private investment declined 13.8% in the second quarter, cutting into the 23.3% gain in the prior quarter.
August saw the federal budget register a deficit of $345 billion. August has registered a deficit 70 times out of 71 fiscal years since there are usually no major corporate or individual tax due dates in that month. August receipts were $344 billion versus $307 billion a year ago. Customs duties (e.g., tariffs) added $30 billion to receipts in August and are up 137% compared to a year ago. Government outlays in August were $689 billion versus $687 billion a year ago. The deficit through the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025, at $1,973 billion, was above the $1,897 billion deficit over the first 11 months of the previous fiscal year. Thus far for fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $2,358 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $1,447 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each rose 0.4% in August after increasing 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in July. Consumer spending increased 0.6% in August after rising 0.5% the previous month. In August, the PCE price index rose 0.3% after increasing 0.2% in July. Core prices advanced 0.2% last month, unchanged from the July estimate. The PCE price index rose 2.7% since August 2024, while core prices increased 2.9% over the same period. Over the past 12 months ended in August, prices for goods increased 0.9% and prices for services rose 3.6%. Food prices increased 2.2%, while energy prices decreased 0.1%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August after increasing 0.2% in July. Over the 12 months ended in August, the CPI rose 2.9%, 0.2 percentage point higher than the 12-month period ended in July. Core prices rose 0.3% last month and 3.1% since August 2024. The primary factor in the August increase was a 0.4% rise in prices for shelter. Food prices rose 0.5% last month from July. Energy prices increased 0.7% in August as gasoline prices rose 1.9% over the month. Over the last 12 months ended in August, food prices increased 3.2%, energy prices rose 0.2%, and shelter prices advanced 3.6%.
Prices at the wholesale level have been somewhat unpredictable this year. In August, the Producer Price Index declined 0.1% after advancing 0.7% (revised) in July. Producer prices increased 2.6% for the 12 months ended in August after rising 3.1% for the 12-month period ended in July. Excluding food and energy, producer prices dipped 0.1% in August but increased 2.8% for the year. In August, prices for goods edged up 0.1% from the previous month and 2.1% since August 2024. Last month saw prices for services decline 0.2% after a 0.7% increase in July. Prices for services rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended in August, lower than the 4.0% increase over the 12 months ended in July.
Housing: Sales of existing homes decreased 0.2% in August but were up 1.8% from a year earlier. The median existing-home price was $422,600 in August, lower than the July price of $425,700 but above the August 2024 estimate of $414,200. Unsold inventory of existing homes in August represented a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from the July total but above the 4.2-month supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes fell 0.3% in August but were 2.5% above the August 2024 figure. The median existing single-family home price was $427,800 in August ($432,000 in July), higher than the August 2024 estimate of $419,800.
Sales of new single-family homes jumped higher in August, exceeding expectations, although inventory of available new homes for sale plunged lower from the previous month. Sales of new single-family homes rose 20.5% in August and were 15.4% above the August 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in August was $413,500 ($395,100 in July), which was higher than the August 2024 estimate of $405,800. The August average sales price was $534,100 ($478,200 in July), up from the August 2024 average sales price of $475,600. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in August represented a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales pace, 17.8% below the July estimate of 9.0 months and is 9.8% below the August 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.
Manufacturing: Industrial production edged up 0.1% in August after decreasing 0.4% in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after edging down 0.1% in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6% in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1%. Mining moved up 0.9%, while utilities decreased 2.0%. Total industrial production was up 0.9% since August 2024.
New orders for durable goods rose 2.9% in August after decreasing 2.7% in July. Transportation equipment drove the August increase after climbing 7.9%. New orders excluding transportation increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9%. For the 12 months ended in August, durable goods orders advanced 7.1%.
Imports and exports: Both import and export prices came in higher than expected in August. Import prices advanced 0.3% last month following a 0.2% decrease in July. Prices for imports were flat for the 12 months ended in August. Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in August. Import fuel prices fell 10.1% over the past 12 months. Prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.4% in August, the largest monthly advance since April 2024. Export prices rose 0.3% in August after rising 0.1% the previous month. Export prices increased 3.4% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022.
The international trade in goods deficit for August was $85.5 billion, 16.8% under the July estimate. Exports of goods for August dipped 1.3%, while imports of goods declined 7.0%. Over the 12 months ended in August, exports decreased 0.4% and imports fell 4.1%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released September 4, saw the goods and services deficit increase 32.5% in July to $78.3 billion. Exports of goods increased 0.3% to $280.5 billion in July. Imports of goods rose 5.9% to $358.8 billion. For the 12 months ended in July 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $154.3 billion, or 30.9%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $103.1 billion, or 5.5%. Imports increased $257.5 billion, or 10.9%.
International markets: September saw the global economy and stock markets largely driven by the ongoing effects of new trade policies, evolving central bank strategies, and persistent inflation concerns. Shifts in trade policy, particularly stemming from higher U.S. tariffs on a broad range of imports, prompted companies to accelerate shipments (“front-loading”) in the first half of the year, which temporarily boosted trade figures but the effects of the actual tariffs began to increasingly weigh on global industrial production and trade in September. The eurozone economy maintained a modest growth pace, with services activity driving the increase, although manufacturing was slower, while inflation accelerated. Economic indicators in China pointed to weakness as the boost from front-loading trade activities unwound, higher tariffs took effect, and weakness in the real estate market persisted. In September, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.7%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE advanced 2.6%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 6.2%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index ticked up 0.6%.
Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence fell 3.6 points in September to 94.2 from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 7.0 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased 1.3 points to 73.4. The Expectations Index has been below the threshold of 80 (typically signaling a recession ahead) since February 2025.
Eye on the Quarter Ahead
October begins the last quarter of the year and brings with it plenty of important, potentially-market-moving, information. The jobs report for September is out at the beginning of the month. The employment sector has slowed considerably over the past several months. The first estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter is out at the end of the month. The economy grew at about 3.3% in the second quarter. The Federal Open Market Committee meets at the end of the month for the second to the last time in 2025. The Committee decided to reduce interest rates in September and indicated that there is a likelihood for at least one more rate reduction before the end of the year.
The Markets (as of market close September 26, 2025)
Despite a rebound on Friday, stocks closed last week mostly lower. Each of the major market indexes, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ, declined in value following a record-setting rally that lasted several weeks. Investors pondered the impact of new tariffs on certain imports announced by President Trump as well as mixed signals from the Federal Reserve as inflation remained somewhat elevated, although within expectations (see below). On the plus side, gross domestic product enjoyed a strong rebound in the second quarter (see below), while jobless claims also fell, possibly suggesting a resilient labor market. Among the market sectors, big tech stocks saw some declines amid concerns that AI-fueled valuations might be too high. Shares within the health care sector slid as some pharmaceutical stocks in Asia and Europe fell in reaction to the new tariffs. Ten-year Treasury yields closed higher, rebounding from a five-month low from the previous week. Crude oil prices marked their largest weekly gain in over three months, driven higher by escalating geopolitical tensions.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 9/26
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
46,315.27
46,247.29
-0.15%
8.70%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
22,631.48
22,484.07
-0.65%
16.43%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,664.36
6,643.70
-0.31%
12.96%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,448.77
2,434.32
-0.59%
9.15%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,885.12
5,901.84
0.28%
21.36%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
4.00%-4.25%
0 bps
-25 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.13%
4.18%
5 bps
-39 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.67
98.14
0.48%
-9.50%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$62.38
$65.32
4.71%
-8.97%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,716.00
$3,797.30
2.19%
43.92%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
According to the third and final estimate, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 0.6%. The increase in GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports (-29.3%), which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending (+2.5%). These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment (-13.8%) and exports (-1.8%).
Personal income increased 0.4% in August, according to estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable (after-tax) personal income also rose 0.4% last month. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures (PCE), increased 0.6% in August, while the PCE price index, a measure of inflation, increased 0.3%. Core prices rose 0.2% last month. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices have risen 2.7%, while core prices increased 2.9%.
Sales of new single-family houses in August were 20.5% above the July rate and 15.4% above the August 2024 estimate. Inventory of new houses for sale in August represented a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales pace, which is 17.8% below the prior month’s estimate of 9.0 months and 9.8% under the rate from a year ago. The median sales price of new houses sold in August was $413,500. This was 4.7% above the July price of $395,100 and 1.9% higher than the August 2024 price of $405,800. The average sales price of new houses sold in August was $534,100. This was 11.7% above the July price of $478,200 and 12.3% above the August 2024 price of $475,600.
While sales of new homes soared in August, existing home sales declined last month. Sales of existing homes ticked down 0.2% in August. According to the National Association of Realtors®, “Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory. However, mortgage rates are declining and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.” Since August 2024, existing home sales were up 1.8%. Unsold inventory of existing homes sat at a 4.6-month supply, unchanged from the July estimate. The median existing home price was $422,600, down from the July price of $425,700 but up from the August 2024 price of $414,200. Sales of existing single-family homes decreased 0.3% in August but were up 2.5% from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $427,800 last month, down from $432,000 in July but higher than the August 2024 price of $419,800.
New orders for durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased 2.9%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The August advance followed a 2.7% July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9%. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the overall increase, climbing 7.9%. Since August 2024, new orders for durable goods have risen 7.1%.
The international trade in goods deficit was $85.5 billion in August, down $17.3 billion, or 16.8%, from July. Exports of goods for August were $176.1 billion, $2.3 billion, or 1.3%, less than July exports. Imports of goods for August were $261.6 billion, $19.6 billion, or 7.0%, less than July imports. For the year, exports declined 0.4% and imports decreased 4.1%.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.173 per gallon on September 22, $0.005 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.012 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 22, the East Coast price increased $0.014 to $3.030 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.027 to $3.008 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.058 to $2.716 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price ticked up $0.004 to $3.184 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.001 to $4.272 per gallon.
For the week ended September 20, there were 218,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended September 13 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended September 13 was 1,926,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended September 6 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.0%), Connecticut (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Rhode Island (1.9%), the District of Columbia (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), Illinois (1.6%), New York (1.6%), and Oregon (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended September 13 were in New York (+1,482), South Carolina (+1,220), Virginia (+920), Massachusetts (+869), and Arizona (+812), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-4,917), Connecticut (-4,540), Michigan (-3,944), Illinois (-1,153), and California (-1,139).
Eye on the Week Ahead
Most of the attention this week will be focused on the September jobs report. Employment growth has notably stalled over the past several months and is not expected to accelerate any time soon.
The Markets (as of market close September 19, 2025)
The stock market continued its record-setting run last week with the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ each reaching new record highs. The small caps of the Russell 2000 also hit a new high for the first time in four years, which signaled a broadening of the rally beyond tech stocks. The major impetus for last week’s market performance was the Federal Reserve’s decision to trim interest rates (see below) for the first time this year. In addition, the Fed projects that more rate cuts are possible before the end of this year, which investors view as a positive for economic growth and corporate earnings. While inflation appears to have moderated somewhat, the Fed’s challenge is to support a cooling job market without reigniting inflationary pressures. The interest rate cut also influenced the bond market, with 10-year Treasury yields ticking higher as bond prices declined. Crude oil prices fell on concerns about waning global demand, abundant supplies, and implications from the aforementioned interest rate cut.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 9/19
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
45,834.22
46,315.27
1.05%
8.86%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
22,141.10
22,631.48
2.21%
17.20%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,584.29
6,664.36
1.22%
13.31%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,397.06
2,448.77
2.16%
9.80%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,843.58
5,885.12
0.71%
21.02%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.00%-4.25%
-25 bps
-25 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.06%
4.13%
7 bps
-44 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.63
97.67
0.04%
-9.93%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$62.58
$62.38
-0.32%
-13.07%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,680.50
$3,716.00
0.96%
40.84%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the range to 4.00%-4.25%. This reduction is the first since December and was nearly unanimous, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran favoring a 50-basis-point decrease. In reaching its decision, the Fed noted that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year, while job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate edged up but remained low. Inflation remained somewhat elevated. The Committee indicated that uncertainty about the economic outlook remained heightened, while the downside risks to employment have risen. The Fed expects to lower interest rates by another 50 basis points by the end of 2025 and by 25 basis points in 2026, slightly more than projected in June.
Estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August rose 0.6% from the previous month and climbed 5.0% from August 2024. Retail sales for July were revised up 0.1 percentage point to 0.6%. Retail trade sales were up 0.6% from July 2025 and 4.8% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 2.0% in August from the previous month and 10.1% from last year. Sales at food services and drinking places increased 0.7% last month and 6.5% from August 2024.
Both import and export prices exceeded expectations last month. U.S. import prices advanced 0.3% in August following a 0.2% increase in July. Prices for U.S. imports were unchanged from August 2024 to August 2025. A 0.8% decline in import fuel prices was offset by a 0.4% rise in nonfuel import prices, which was the largest monthly increase since April 2024. Prices for U.S. exports increased 0.3% in August after rising 0.3% the previous month. Higher prices for nonagricultural exports drove the increase. U.S. export prices rose 3.4% over the 12-month period ended in August, the largest 12-month increase since the comparable period ended December 2022.
Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.1% in August after decreasing 0.4% in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after edging down 0.1% in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6%, while factory output rose 0.1%. Mining moved up 0.9%, while utilities decreased 2.0%. Over the last 12 months, total industrial production has risen 0.9%.
The number of residential building permits issued in August was 3.7% less than the July estimate and 11.1% below the August 2024 rate. Issued building permits for single-family homes fell 2.2% in August from the prior month. Residential housing starts in August were 8.5% below the July estimate and 6.0% less than the August 2024 rate. Single-family housing starts in August were 7.0% under the July figure. Residential housing completions in August were 8.4% above the July estimate but 8.4% below the August 2024 rate. Single-family housing completions in August were 6.7% above the July estimate.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.168 per gallon on September 15, $0.024 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.012 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 15, the East Coast price decreased $0.047 to $3.016 per gallon; the Midwest price declined $0.074 to $2.981 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.041 to $2.774 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.060 to $3.180 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.079 to $4.273 per gallon.
For the week ended September 13, there were 231,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended September 6 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended September 6 was 1,920,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 12,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended August 30 were New Jersey (2.7%), Rhode Island (2.1%), California (2.0%), Massachusetts (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), the District of Columbia (1.8%), Minnesota (1.8%), Nevada (1.7%), New York (1.7%), and Oregon (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended September 6 were in Texas (+15,346), Michigan (+3,018), Connecticut (+1,454), North Dakota (+684), and Minnesota (+325), while the largest decreases were in New York (-3,623), Tennessee (-2,994), California (-1,702), Illinois (-1,063), and Massachusetts (-830).
Eye on the Week Ahead
There’s plenty of economic data available this week covering several sectors. The latest information on sales of existing and new homes is out this week. The final estimate for the second quarter gross domestic product is also available later in the week. Data on inflation closes out the week with the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index for August.
The Markets (as of market close September 12, 2025)
Wall Street enjoyed a positive performance last week, fueled by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here finished the week with gains. The NASDAQ recorded a fresh record high as tech shares continued to lead the market. Investors apparently saw the economy slowing just enough to warrant an interest rate cut but not so much as to trigger a recession. Ten-year Treasury bond yields rose last Friday, recovering some of the sharp losses from earlier in the week. The recent decline in yields, in anticipation of the aforementioned rate cut, has been a positive for the housing sector (with mortgage rates declining) and for stocks. Crude oil prices ticked higher as Ukrainian drone strikes raised concerns over potential disruptions to Russian oil exports.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 9/12
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
45,400.86
45,834.22
0.95%
7.73%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
21,700.39
22,141.10
2.03%
14.66%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,481.50
6,584.29
1.59%
11.95%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,391.05
2,397.06
0.25%
7.48%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,746.72
5,843.58
1.69%
20.16%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.08%
4.06%
-2 bps
-51 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.74
97.63
-0.11%
-9.97%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$61.97
$62.58
0.98%
-12.79%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,642.70
$3,680.50
1.04%
39.49%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% in August after rising 0.2% in July. For the 12 months ended in August, the CPI increased 2.9% after rising 2.7% over the 12 months ended in July. The index for shelter rose 0.4% in August and was the largest factor in the overall monthly increase. Food prices increased 0.5% over the month as food at home prices rose 0.6%, while prices for food away from home increased 0.3%. Prices for energy rose 0.7% in August as gasoline prices increased 1.9% over the month. Prices less food and energy (core prices) rose 0.3% in August, the same increase as in July.
Producer prices edged down 0.1% in August after increasing 0.7% the previous month. Over the last 12 months, producer prices have risen 2.6%. The August decrease in producer prices was attributable to a 0.2% decline in prices for services. In contrast, prices for goods inched up 0.1%. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% in August, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. For the 12 months ended in August, prices less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8%, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5% in March 2025.
The monthly Treasury budget showed a deficit of $345 billion in August, well above the July deficit of $291 billion. Outlays for military active duty and retirement, veterans’ benefits, Supplemental Security Income, and Medicare payments to health maintenance organizations and prescription drug plans accelerated into August because September 1, 2025, the normal payment date, fell on a nonbusiness day. For the 11 months of the current fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,973 billion, which is higher than the deficit of $1,897 billion over the comparable period last fiscal year.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.192 per gallon on September 8, $0.015 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.044 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 8, the East Coast price increased $0.051 to $3.063 per gallon; the Midwest price declined $0.033 to $3.055 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.032 to $2.733 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.057 to $3.240 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.046 to $4.194 per gallon.
For the week ended September 6, there were 263,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since October 23, 2021, when it was 268,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 30 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 30 was 1,939,000, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended August 23 were New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), Connecticut (2.0%), Minnesota (2.0%), Puerto Rico (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), New York (1.8%), Oregon (1.8%), and Pennsylvania (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 30 were in Tennessee (+2,870), Connecticut (+2,270), New York (+1,683), Illinois (+1,331), and California (+982), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-2,833), Pennsylvania (-504), Florida (-456), Texas (-402), and Arizona (-329).
Eye on the Week Ahead
The Federal Open Market Committee holds its meeting this week, the outcome of which is expected to be a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds target rate range.
What I'm Watching This Week 