Category: Financial

Monthly Market Review – November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 28, 2025)

November proved to be a volatile month for the stock market, ultimately concluding with slight gains for several of the major market indexes. Through the middle of the month, investors grappled with concerns about the valuation of mega-cap tech stocks, leading most benchmark indexes to decline for three straight weeks. However, the market staged a strong rebound late in the month leading into the Thanksgiving holiday, as more economic information became available following the re-opening of the federal government. The late-month rally was largely driven by renewed hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Each of the benchmark indexes ultimately ended November on an uptick, except the NASDAQ, which ended the month in the red, despite a strong rally during the last week of the month.

Market volatility was largely driven by the performance of a small number of megacap technology companies, frequently the “Magnificent Seven,” due to their significant weighting in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, prompting their collective performance to outpace the broader market.

A major catalyst for the late-month rally was growing investor confidence in a third interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in early December. Key federal officials have indicated that labor-market risks are a primary concern, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut. Among the market sectors, health care, communication services, energy, and consumer staples outperformed in November, while information technology, consumer discretionary, and industrials lagged.

FactSet’s latest review of third quarter U.S. corporate earnings was generally favorable. Blended year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 was roughly 13.4%, which marked the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In addition, 83% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings per share above estimates, well above the 10-year average of 75%.

U.S. Treasury yields in November were on a downward trend, with 10-year Treasuries falling eight basis points, and the yield on two-year Treasuries dipping about five basis points. The decline in yields, particularly the ten-year Treasury note, generally reflects investor expectations of further interest rate cuts as the Federal Reserve attempts to balance rising inflationary pressures against a softer labor market.

Crude oil prices were on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline. A surge in global supply, particularly from non-OPEC+ producers like the United States and Brazil, has led to a steady increase in crude inventories, which has driven crude oil prices lower. The retail price of regular gasoline was $3.061 per gallon on November 24, $0.026 above the price a month earlier and $0.017 higher than the price a year ago.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior MonthAs of 11/28Monthly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2247,562.8747,716.420.32%12.16%
NASDAQ19,310.7923,724.9623,365.69-1.51%21.00%
S&P 5005,881.636,840.206,849.090.13%16.45%
Russell 20002,230.162,479.382,498.780.78%12.04%
Global Dow4,863.016,022.586,059.460.61%24.60%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%3.75%-4.00%3.75%-4.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.10%4.02%-8 bps-55 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.7299.47-0.25%-8.27%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$60.88$59.47-2.32%-17.13%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,013.40$4,249.905.89%61.07%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Latest Economic Reports

The government shutdown impacted the flow of economic data. However, since the government reopened, some economic reports have been released. The following summaries are based on the most recent data available as of the date of this publication.

  • Employment: The latest employment report for September showed the labor market added 119,000 new jobs, which was more than expected. However, employment for July was also revised down by 7,000, while August’s total was revised down by 26,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined was 33,000 lower than previously reported. In September, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. The number of unemployed persons in September, at 7.6 million, was 219,000 above the August estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 116,000 to 1.8 million. These individuals accounted for 23.7% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in September rose 0.1 percentage point from August to 62.4%. The employment-population ratio in September, at 59.7%, was 0.1 percentage point above the August figure. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.09, or 0.2%, to $36.67 in September. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.8%. The average workweek in September was 34.2 hours for the fourth month in a row.
  • There were 216,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 22, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,960,000. A year ago, there were 216,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,892,000.
  • FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Reserve did not meet in November. However, the consensus is that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points when it next meets in December.
  • GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, advanced at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% decrease in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, helped propel the second-quarter increase, climbing 2.5% after ticking up 0.6% in the first quarter. Spending rose for both services (2.6%) and goods (2.2%). After surging 38.0% in the first quarter, imports (which are a negative in the calculation of GDP) fell 29.3% in the second quarter. However, exports also declined in the second quarter, falling 1.8%, offsetting a 0.2% advance in the first quarter. Private investment declined 13.8% in the second quarter, cutting into the 23.3% gain in the prior quarter.
  • The federal budget ran a deficit of $284 billion in October, the first month of fiscal year 2026. October receipts were $404 billion. Customs duties (e.g., tariffs) added $31 billion to receipts in October. Government outlays in October were $689 billion. The deficit for fiscal year 2025, at $1,775 billion, was below the $1,817 billion deficit from the previous fiscal year. For October, individual income tax receipts totaled $217 billion, while outlays for Social Security equaled $134 billion.
  • Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each rose 0.4% in August after increasing 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in July. Consumer spending increased 0.6% in August after rising 0.5% the previous month. In August, the PCE price index rose 0.3% after increasing 0.2% in July. Core prices advanced 0.2% last month, unchanged from the July estimate. The PCE price index rose 2.7% since August 2024, while core prices increased 2.9% over the same period. Over the past 12 months ended in August, prices for goods increased 0.9% and prices for services rose 3.6%. Food prices increased 2.2%, while energy prices decreased 0.1%.
  • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September after increasing 0.4% in August. Over the 12 months ended in September, the CPI rose 3.0%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 12-month period ended in August. Core prices rose 0.2% in September and 3.0% since September 2024. The primary factor in the September increase was a 1.5% rise in energy prices, which was driven by a 4.1% jump in prices for gasoline. Prices for shelter rose 0.2% in September, while food prices rose 0.2%. Over the last 12 months ended in September, food prices increased 3.1%, energy prices rose 2.8%, and shelter prices advanced 3.6%.
  • Prices at the wholesale level have been somewhat unpredictable this year. In September, the Producer Price Index increased 0.3% after declining 0.1% in August. Producer prices increased 2.7% for the 12 months ended in September, the same 12-month increase for the period ended in August. Excluding food and energy, producer prices ticked up 0.1% in September and 2.6% for the year. In September, prices for goods increased 0.9% from the previous month and 3.3% since September 2024. Last month prices for services were unchanged but rose 2.5% for the 12 months ended in September.
  • Housing: Sales of existing homes increased 1.2% in October and were up 1.7% year over year. The median existing-home price was $415,200 in October, higher than the September price of $412,300 and above the October 2024 estimate of $406,800. Unsold inventory of existing homes in October represented a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.5% in September and above the 4.1-month supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 0.8% in October and 1.9% from the October 2024 figure. The median existing single-family home price was $420,600 in October ($417,600 in September), higher than the October 2024 estimate of $411,700.
  • Sales of new single-family homes jumped higher in August, exceeding expectations, although inventory of available new homes for sale plunged lower from the previous month. Sales of new single-family homes rose 20.5% in August and were 15.4% above the August 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in August was $413,500 ($395,100 in July), which was higher than the August 2024 estimate of $405,800. The August average sales price was $534,100 ($478,200 in July), up from the August 2024 average sales price of $475,600. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in August represented a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales pace, 17.8% below the July estimate of 9.0 months and 9.8% below the August 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.
  • Manufacturing: Industrial production edged up 0.1% in August after decreasing 0.4% in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after edging down 0.1% in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6% in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1%. Mining moved up 0.9%, while utilities decreased 2.0%. Total industrial production was up 0.9% since August 2024.
  • New orders for durable goods rose 0.5% in September after increasing 3.0% in August. Transportation equipment drove the September increase after climbing 0.4%. New orders excluding transportation increased 0.6%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1%. For the 12 months ended in September, durable goods orders advanced 7.3%.
  • Imports and exports: Both import and export prices came in higher than expected in August. Import prices advanced 0.3% following a 0.2% decrease in July. Prices for imports were flat for the 12 months ended in August. Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in August. Import fuel prices fell 10.1% over the past 12 months. Prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.4% in August, the largest monthly advance since April 2024. Export prices rose 0.3% in August after rising 0.1% the previous month. Export prices increased 3.4% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022.
  • The international trade in goods deficit for August was $85.5 billion, 16.8% under the July estimate. Exports of goods for August dipped 1.3%, while imports of goods declined 7.0%. Over the 12 months ended in August, exports decreased 0.4% and imports fell 4.1%.
  • The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released November 19, saw the goods and services deficit decrease 23.8% in August to $59.6 billion. Exports of goods increased 0.1% to $280.8 billion in August. Imports of goods fell 5.1% to $340.4 billion. For the 12 months ended in August 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $142.5 billion, or 25.0%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $108.4 billion, or 5.1%. Imports increased $250.9 billion, or 9.2%.
  • International markets: Both in Europe and Asia, November may best be characterized by moderately positive stock market momentum, largely driven by growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The eurozone GDP has grown in each of the first three quarters of 2025, while inflationary pressures have receded. In China, however, the GDP is expected to be downgraded to around 4.5% for 2025, largely impacted by trade tensions with the U.S. and some European countries. the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 0.7%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE dipped 0.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index dropped 4.1%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.7%.
  • Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence fell sharply in November, declining by 6.8 points to 88.7 from 95.5 in October. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased 8.6 points to 63.2. The Expectations Index has tracked below 80 for ten consecutive months, the threshold that could signal a recession ahead.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Following the re-opening of the federal government, the primary focus in December will center on the state of the economy and the policy of the Federal Reserve relative to interest rates.

What I’m Watching This Week – 1 December 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 28, 2025)

Wall Street experienced a strong Thanksgiving week, largely erasing losses from the preceding volatile period. Increasing hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month helped fuel the rally. After a shaky few weeks, tech stocks surged last week, driving the NASDAQ to its largest weekly gain in quite some time. As more economic data is released following the reopening of the federal government, investors are able to get a better grasp on the state of the economy. For instance, initial job claims fell, while durable goods orders and retail sales rose. However, producer prices also advanced, further evidence of escalating inflationary pressures. Each market sector ended last week with gains, led by consumer discretionary, communication services, materials, and information technology. The yield on 10-year Treasuries continued to slip as growing expectations of a rate cut help push bond prices higher, weighing on yields. Oversupply continued to drag crude oil prices lower.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/28Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2246,245.4147,716.423.18%12.16%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,273.0823,365.694.91%21.00%
S&P 5005,881.636,602.996,849.093.73%16.45%
Russell 20002,230.162,369.592,498.785.45%12.04%
Global Dow4,863.015,908.606,059.462.55%24.60%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%3.75%-4.00%3.75%-4.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.06%4.02%-4 bps-55 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.44100.1599.47-0.68%-8.27%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$57.94$59.472.64%-17.13%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,056.80$4,249.904.76%61.07%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Retail and food services sales rose 0.2% in September from the previous month and 4.3% from September 2024. Retail trade sales were up 0.1% in September and 3.9% from September 2024. Nonstore (online) retailer sales declined 0.7% in September but rose 6.0% from last year, while food service and drinking places sales were up 0.7% in September and 6.7% from September 2024.
  • The Producer Price Index increased 0.3% in September after falling 0.1% in August. Since September 2024, producer prices have increased 2.7%. In September, producer prices for goods rose 0.9%, while prices for services were unchanged from the prior month. Energy prices rose 3.5% in September, while prices for foods advanced 1.1%. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1% in September after rising 0.3% in August. For the 12 months ended in September, prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.9%.
  • October, the first month of fiscal year 2026, saw the federal deficit come in at $284 billion, following a September surplus of $198 billion. Government receipts totaled $404 billion, while outlays were $689 billion. Nearly 54% of October receipts was attributable to income tax receipts ($217 billion), while custom duties (tariffs) totaled $31 billion. Medicare ($151 billion) and Social Security payments ($134 billion) accounted for over 41% of the October government expenditures.
  • New orders for long-lasting durable goods increased 0.5% In September. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6%. Excluding defense, new orders ticked up 0.1%. Transportation equipment, up two consecutive months, led the September increase, rising 0.4%. Over the 12 months ended in September, new orders for durable goods rose 7.3%.
  • For the week ended November 22, there were 216,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 15 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 15 was 1,960,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 21,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 8 were New Jersey (2.3%), Washington (2.2%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), California (1.8%), Puerto Rico (1.8%), Alaska (1.7%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), Oregon (1.7%), and Rhode Island (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 15 were in Kentucky (+589), Minnesota (+351), Wisconsin (+211), Delaware (+199), and Texas (+99), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-5,290), New Jersey (-2,381), California (-2,287), Illinois (-962), and Georgia (-857).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.061 per gallon on November 24, $0.001 per gallon less than the prior week’s price and $0.017 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of November 24, the East Coast price increased $0.032 to $2.985 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.049 to $2.858 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched up $0.043 to $2.643 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.077 to $2.872 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.050 to $4.070 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Slowly but surely, some important economic reports are being made available. However, most of the data that has been released thus far is for September.

What I’m Watching This Week – 24 November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 21, 2025)

Volatility continued to characterize the stock market last week. Wall Street endured significant swings driven by a mix of key corporate earnings reports, important economic data following the government’s reopening, and shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the week in the red, unable to recover from a sharp midweek sell-off, despite a rally last Friday. Most of the negative market returns were within the consumer discretionary and information technology sectors. Communication services outperformed last week. Tech shares took a notable downturn last week, despite a favorable earnings report from a major AI/tech giant. The release of the September jobs report (see below), delayed due to the government shutdown, provided mixed signals on the state of the U.S. economy in general and Federal Reserve policy in particular. Better-than-expected job growth was offset by an increase in the unemployment rate, which reinforced the Fed’s dilemma regarding future interest rate cuts. The yield on 10-year Treasuries eased slightly, ending the week down eight basis points. Oversupply concerns drove crude oil prices to a four-week low.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/21Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2247,147.4846,245.41-1.91%8.70%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,900.5922,273.08-2.74%15.34%
S&P 5005,881.636,734.116,602.99-1.95%12.26%
Russell 20002,230.162,388.232,369.59-0.78%6.25%
Global Dow4,863.016,037.775,908.60-2.14%21.50%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%3.75%-4.00%3.75%-4.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.14%4.06%-8 bps-51 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.27100.150.89%-7.64%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$60.03$57.94-3.48%-19.26%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,084.40$4,056.80-0.68%53.75%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Following a more than six-week delay due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment data for September. Employment rose by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April. In September, employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government. The total number of unemployed rose by 219,000 to 7.6 million, while the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. These measures were higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 4.1%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.9 million. Following downward revisions, total employment in July and August combined was 33,000 lower than previously reported. The labor force participation rate (62.4%) and the employment-population ratio (59.7%) each rose 0.1 percentage point in September from the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) dipped by 116,000 to 1.8 million in September. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.6% of all unemployed people. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.09, or 0.2%, to $36.67 in September. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. In September, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.2 hours.
  • For the week ended November 15, there were 220,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 8 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 8 was 1,974,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s level. This was the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021, when it was 2,041,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 1 were New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), the District of Columbia (2.0%), California (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), Oregon (1.7%), and Rhode Island (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 8 were in California (+6,728), New Jersey (+3,302), Texas (+3,101), Michigan (+2,598), and Pennsylvania (+1,816), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-5,500), Missouri (-3,166), Arkansas (-597), Indiana (-411), and Nebraska (-386).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.062 per gallon on November 17, $0.006 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.016 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of November 17, the East Coast price increased $0.041 to $2.953 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.003 to $2.907 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched up $0.001 to $2.600 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.040 to $2.949 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.039 to $4.120 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The end of the government shutdown should result in the release of economic data and reports. We will continue to track the release of important economic reports as they become available.

What I’m Watching This Week – 17 November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 14, 2025)

Last week was marked by the re-opening of the U.S. government after a prolonged shutdown. However, despite a significant boost to the stock market at the beginning of the week, the positive momentum waned as the week progressed as investors were concerned about high valuation of AI stocks and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 ended the week in the red, while the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Global Dow closed higher. The AI sector, which has been a major market mover for much of the year, experienced significant volatility as investors worried about long-term sustainability. Health care, energy, and materials were market sector gainers, while consumer discretionary and communication services underperformed. Ten-year Treasury yields rose, likely reflecting reduced expectations for another interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting in December. Crude oil prices moved very little from the prior week as ongoing concerns surrounding increasing U.S. inventories and overproduction weighed on prices.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/14Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2246,987.1047,147.480.34%10.82%
NASDAQ19,310.7923,004.5422,900.59-0.45%18.59%
S&P 5005,881.636,728.806,734.110.08%14.49%
Russell 20002,230.162,432.822,388.23-1.83%7.09%
Global Dow4,863.015,970.606,037.771.13%24.16%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%3.75%-4.00%3.75%-4.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.09%4.14%5 bps-43 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.5499.27-0.27%-8.46%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$59.89$60.030.23%-16.35%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,010.40$4,084.401.85%54.80%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data continued to be delayed due to the government shutdown. However, as information becomes available, it will be included herein.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.056 per gallon on November 10, $0.037 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.004 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of November 10, the East Coast price decreased $0.005 to $2.912 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.082 to $2.910 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.088 to $2.599 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.029 to $2.909 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.031 to $4.159 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The end of the government shutdown should result in the release of economic data and reports. We will continue to track the release of important economic reports as they become available.

What I’m Watching This Week – 10 November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 7, 2025)

The multi-week bull run ended last week, halted by a notable selloff of tech stocks. The NASDAQ experienced a sharp correction, driven by concerns of overpricing and high valuations, particularly in the technology sector. The S&P 500 suffered its worst week in a month, while the Russell 2000 and the Dow also lost value. Most reporting S&P companies have exceeded profit estimates, but a few major companies disappointed, which weighed on market sentiment. Economic uncertainty, exacerbated by the ongoing government shutdown, appeared to further escalate investor concerns. Among the market sectors, information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary fell the furthest, while health care, real estate, energy, and financials outperformed. Crude oil prices faced downward pressure, resulting in a drop in prices for the second straight week. The fall in crude oil prices was largely influenced by surging U.S. inventories, an increase in production by OPEC+, and a price cut by Saudi Arabia.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/7Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2247,562.8746,987.10-1.21%10.44%
NASDAQ19,310.7923,724.9623,004.54-3.04%19.13%
S&P 5005,881.636,840.206,728.80-1.63%14.40%
Russell 20002,230.162,479.382,432.82-1.88%9.09%
Global Dow4,863.016,022.585,970.60-0.86%22.78%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%3.75%-4.00%3.75%-4.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.10%4.09%-1 bps-48 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.7299.54-0.18%-8.21%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$60.88$59.89-1.63%-16.54%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,013.40$4,010.40-0.07%52.00%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • Manufacturing output ticked higher in October, fueled by the best gain in new orders in the last 20 months. However, growth was primarily led by domestic orders, as new export orders fell due to tariffs negatively impacting international trade. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 52.5 in October, compared to 52.0 in September.
  • According to S&P Global, the service sector registered a solid and accelerated pace of growth during October. Increased output was accompanied by a firm rise in new business, although uncertainty over the economic and political outlook attributed to only modest hiring growth, while confidence about the future fell to a six-month low. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index edged higher in October, rising to 54.8 from September’s 54.2.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.019 per gallon on November 3, $0.016 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.050 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 3, the East Coast price increased $0.007 to $2.917 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.025 to $2.828 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.069 to $2.511 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.034 to $2.938 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.022 to $4.128 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); http://www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).

What I’m Watching This Week – 3 November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2025)

Stocks moved generally higher last week, largely driven by solid corporate earnings from some big tech firms. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each reached record highs during the week, extending a significant rally. The push higher was moderated somewhat by the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on future rate cuts. Despite a lack of updated economic information, the Fed identified concerns about the potential for a weakening job market and stubbornly elevated inflation rates. While trade tensions between the U.S. and China were tempered following a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, analysts cautioned that underlying issues still had not been resolved. Following last week’s interest rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, extending a three-session rally that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a three-week high. Despite an early-week rally, crude oil prices dipped lower last week, primarily due to concerns of global oversupply and increased production.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/31Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2247,207.1247,562.870.75%11.80%
NASDAQ19,310.7923,204.8723,724.962.24%22.86%
S&P 5005,881.636,791.696,840.200.71%16.30%
Russell 20002,230.162,513.142,479.38-1.34%11.17%
Global Dow4,863.016,045.766,022.58-0.38%23.84%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.00%-4.25%3.75%-4.00%-25 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%3.99%4.10%11 bps-47 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4498.8899.720.85%-8.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$61.47$60.88-0.96%-15.16%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,117.70$4,013.40-2.53%52.11%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% following its meeting last week. This marks the lowest range for the federal funds rate since 2022. The decision was based on a 10-2 vote, with Stephen I. Miran preferring to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, while Jeffrey R. Schmid voted for no change to the target range for the federal funds rate. In seeking to achieve its mandate of maximum employment and inflation at 2.0% over the longer run, the Committee based its rate cut on rising downside risks to employment and elevated inflation.
  • The federal government enjoyed a surplus of $198 billion in September, the last month of fiscal year 2025. Government receipts were $544 billion, while expenditures totaled $346 billion. For fiscal year 2025, total receipts were $5,235 billion, while outlays were $7,010 billion, leaving a deficit of $1,775 billion, which was less than the FY2024 deficit of $1,817 billion.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.035 per gallon on October 27, $0.016 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.062 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 27, the East Coast price increased $0.008 to $2.910 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.068 to $2.873 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price climbed $0.024 to $2.580 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.025 to $2.972 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.060 to $4.106 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown.

Monthly Market Review – October 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2025)

Wall Street experienced notable volatility in October, only to see each of the benchmark indexes listed here close the month higher. The NASDAQ led the benchmarks, reaching a new record high. This surge was heavily influenced by a surge in AI stocks. Several major tech firms posted favorable corporate earnings data for the third quarter. Overall, the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises, at 83.2% through quarter three, was above the long-term average. Among the market sectors, information technology, health care, and consumer discretionary moved higher, while financials and consumer staples were among the sectors that underperformed.

October saw the U.S. economy face slowing job growth, elevated inflation, and a significant monetary policy pivot by the Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates in October for a second time this year.

The government shutdown has hampered the release of important information, making it difficult to gauge the state of the economy. For instance, labor market data is lacking, as is the latest information on gross domestic product (GDP). The Consumer Price Index was released; however that data was based on information collected prior to the shutdown.

The U.S. bond market in October 2025 was primarily driven by Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, slowing labor market growth, and the impact of a U.S. government shutdown. Ten-year Treasury yields generally moved lower for the month, dropping by about 15.0 basis points from the start of October, although they bounced back somewhat toward the end of the month.

The month of October 2025 was largely characterized by a bearish trend for crude oil, with prices on track for a third consecutive monthly decline. Oversupply concerns played a large part in the downward movement of crude oil prices. The retail price of regular gasoline was $3.035 per gallon on October 27, $0.083 below the price a month earlier but $0.062 lower than the price a year ago.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior MonthAs of 10/31Monthly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2246,397.8947,562.872.51%11.80%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,660.0123,724.964.70%22.86%
S&P 5005,881.636,688.466,840.202.27%16.30%
Russell 20002,230.162,436.482,479.381.76%11.17%
Global Dow4,863.015,917.396,022.581.78%23.84%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.00%-4.25%3.75%-4.00%-25 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.14%4.10%-4 bps-47 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4497.8299.721.94%-8.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$62.51$60.88-2.61%-15.16%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$3,882.60$4,013.403.37%52.11%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Latest Economic Reports

The government shutdown has impacted the flow of economic data. However, information from private-sector sources has been kept current, for the most part. The following summaries are based on the most recent data available as of the date of this publication.

  • Employment: The latest employment report for August showed the labor market continued to weaken. Job growth ticked up 22,000 last month following an upwardly revised July increase of only 79,000. However, employment for June was also revised down by 27,000, from 14,000 to -13,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined was 21,000 lower than previously reported. In August, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%. The number of unemployed persons in August, at 7.4 million, was 148,000 above the July estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 104,000 to 1.9 million. These individuals accounted for 25.7% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in August rose 0.1 percentage point from July to 62.3%. The employment-population ratio in August, at 59.6%, was unchanged from the July estimate. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $36.53 in August. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.7%, 0.2 percentage point below the 12-month average for the period ended in July. The average workweek in August was 34.2 hours for the third month in a row.
  • There were 218,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended September 20, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,926,000. A year ago, there were 221,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,831,000.
  • FOMC/interest rates: In a 10-2 decision, the Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the lowest level since 2022. Despite the lack of economic data following the government shutdown, the Committee reached its policy decision, noting that downside risks to employment rose in recent months, while inflation remained somewhat elevated.
  • GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, advanced at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% decrease in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, helped propel the second-quarter increase, climbing 2.5% after ticking up 0.6% in the first quarter. Spending rose for both services (2.6%) and goods (2.2%). After surging 38.0% in the first quarter, imports (which are a negative in the calculation of GDP) fell 29.3% in the second quarter. However, exports also declined in the second quarter, falling 1.8%, offsetting a 0.2% advance in the first quarter. Private investment declined 13.8% in the second quarter, cutting into the 23.3% gain in the prior quarter.
  • September, the last month of fiscal year 2025, saw the federal budget register a surplus of $198 billion. The September surplus is partly attributable to the fact that outlays for military active duty and retirement, veterans benefits, Supplemental Security Income, and Medicare payments to health maintenance organizations and prescription drug plans accelerated into August, because September 1, 2025, the normal payment date, fell on a non-business day. September receipts were $544 billion. Customs duties (e.g., tariffs) added $30 billion to receipts in September. Government outlays in September were $346 billion. The deficit for fiscal year 2025, at $1,775 billion, was below the $1,817 billion deficit from the previous fiscal year. For fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $2,656 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $1,581 billion.
  • Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each rose 0.4% in August after increasing 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in July. Consumer spending increased 0.6% in August after rising 0.5% the previous month. In August, the PCE price index rose 0.3% after increasing 0.2% in July. Core prices advanced 0.2% last month, unchanged from the July estimate. The PCE price index rose 2.7% since August 2024, while core prices increased 2.9% over the same period. Over the past 12 months ended in August, prices for goods increased 0.9% and prices for services rose 3.6%. Food prices increased 2.2%, while energy prices decreased 0.1%.
  • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September after increasing 0.4% in August. Over the 12 months ended in September, the CPI rose 3.0%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 12-month period ended in August. Core prices rose 0.2% in September and 3.0% since September 2024. The primary factor in the September increase was a 1.5% rise in energy prices, which was driven by a 4.1% jump in prices for gasoline. Prices for shelter rose 0.2% in September, while food prices rose 0.2%. Over the last 12 months ended in September, food prices increased 3.1%, energy prices rose 2.8%, and shelter prices advanced 3.6%.
  • Prices at the wholesale level have been somewhat unpredictable this year. In August, the Producer Price Index declined 0.1% after advancing 0.7% (revised) in July. Producer prices increased 2.6% for the 12 months ended in August after rising 3.1% for the 12-month period ended in July. Excluding food and energy, producer prices dipped 0.1% in August but increased 2.8% for the year. In August, prices for goods edged up 0.1% from the previous month and 2.1% since August 2024. Last month saw prices for services decline 0.2% after a 0.7% increase in July. Prices for services rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended in August, lower than the 4.0% increase over the 12 months ended in July.
  • Housing: Sales of existing homes increased 1.5% in September and were up 4.1% from a year earlier. The median existing-home price was $415,200 in September, lower than the August price of $422,400 but above the September 2024 estimate of $406,700. Unsold inventory of existing homes in September represented a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up 1.3% from the August total and 14.0% above supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.7% in September and 4.5% from the September 2024 figure. The median existing single-family home price was $420,700 in September ($427,700 in August), higher than the September 2024 estimate of $411,400.
  • Sales of new single-family homes jumped higher in August, exceeding expectations, although inventory of available new homes for sale plunged lower from the previous month. Sales of new single-family homes rose 20.5% in August and were 15.4% above the August 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in August was $413,500 ($395,100 in July), which was higher than the August 2024 estimate of $405,800. The August average sales price was $534,100 ($478,200 in July), up from the August 2024 average sales price of $475,600. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in August represented a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales pace, 17.8% below the July estimate of 9.0 months and 9.8% below the August 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.
  • Manufacturing: Industrial production edged up 0.1% in August after decreasing 0.4% in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after edging down 0.1% in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6% in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1%. Mining moved up 0.9%, while utilities decreased 2.0%. Total industrial production was up 0.9% since August 2024.
  • New orders for durable goods rose 2.9% in August after decreasing 2.7% in July. Transportation equipment drove the August increase after climbing 7.9%. New orders excluding transportation increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9%. For the 12 months ended in August, durable goods orders advanced 7.1%.
  • Imports and exports: Both import and export prices came in higher than expected in August. Import prices advanced 0.3% following a 0.2% decrease in July. Prices for imports were flat for the 12 months ended in August. Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in August. Import fuel prices fell 10.1% over the past 12 months. Prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.4% in August, the largest monthly advance since April 2024. Export prices rose 0.3% in August after rising 0.1% the previous month. Export prices increased 3.4% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022.
  • The international trade in goods deficit for August was $85.5 billion, 16.8% under the July estimate. Exports of goods for August dipped 1.3%, while imports of goods declined 7.0%. Over the 12 months ended in August, exports decreased 0.4% and imports fell 4.1%.
  • The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released September 4, saw the goods and services deficit increase 32.5% in July to $78.3 billion. Exports of goods increased 0.3% to $280.5 billion in July. Imports of goods rose 5.9% to $358.8 billion. For the 12 months ended in July 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $154.3 billion, or 30.9%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $103.1 billion, or 5.5%. Imports increased $257.5 billion, or 10.9%.
  • International markets: October was a good month for European stock markets, with some indexes reaching record highs during the month. The key drivers in the European stock market centered around AI stocks, positive economic signals, and strong corporate earnings. While eurozone GDP rose 0.2% in the third quarter from the second, Germany and Italy saw little to no growth in the quarter. Stock markets in Asian countries experienced significant volatility, often reacting to developments in U.S.-China trade talks and key economic data. In October, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 0.3%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE advanced 2.4%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index jumped 14.5%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.9%.
  • Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence fell 1.0 point in October to 94.6 from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased 2.9 points to 71.5. The Expectations Index has been below the threshold of 80 (typically signaling a recession ahead) since February 2025.

Eye on the Month Ahead

The primary focus in November will center on when the government shutdown will end and what economic information will be available at that time.

What I’m Watching This Week – 27 October 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 24, 2025)

The major stock market indexes continued to climb last week, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reaching new record highs. Investors were buoyed by a strong start to the third-quarter earnings season, particularly for major banks, with most companies reporting better-than-expected earnings and profits. On the global front, the announcement of a meeting between the United States and China muted concerns surrounding trade tariffs. While consumer prices rose in September, the advance was softer than expected, bolstering hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve following its meeting this week. Among the market sectors, information technology and communication services were the leading performers. Ten-year Treasury yields were generally lower last week, dipping below 4.0%. Gold prices, which had been on a notable rally, declined last week, largely due to profit-taking and a reduction in safe-haven demand. Crude oil prices were volatile throughout the week, falling to their lowest levels in months, only to surge later in the week after the U.S. sanctioned two major Russian oil firms.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/24Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2246,190.6147,207.122.20%10.96%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,679.9723,204.872.31%20.17%
S&P 5005,881.636,664.016,791.691.92%15.47%
Russell 20002,230.162,452.172,513.142.49%12.69%
Global Dow4,863.015,956.586,045.761.50%24.32%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.00%-4.25%4.00%-4.25%0 bps-25 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.00%3.99%-1 bps-58 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4498.4698.880.43%-8.82%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$57.59$61.476.74%-14.34%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,249.10$4,117.70-3.09%56.06%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in September following a 0.4% rise in August. Note: The September CPI data collection was completed before the government shutdown. In September, prices for gasoline rose 4.1% and were the largest factors in the overall monthly increase. Prices for energy rose 1.5% over the month. Food prices increased 0.2% last month. Consumer prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.3% in each of the two preceding months. The CPI rose 3.0% for the 12 months ended in September after rising 2.9% over the 12 months ended in August. Prices less food and energy also rose 3.0% over the last 12 months. Energy prices increased 2.8% for the year. Prices for food increased 3.1% since September 2024.
  • Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2025. According to National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Since September 2024, sales of existing homes have risen 4.1%. At a 4.6-month supply in September, unsold inventory was up 1.3% from the prior month and 14.0% from a year ago. The median existing-home price was $415,200 in September, down 1.7% from the August price of $422,400 but up 2.1% from one year ago ($406,700). Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.7% in September from August and 4.5% from September 2024. The median existing single-family home price in September was $420,700, down from the August price of $427,700 but higher than the September 2024 price of $411,400.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.019 per gallon on October 20, $0.042 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.125 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 20, the East Coast price decreased $0.050 to $2.902 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.007 to $2.805 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.067 to $2.556 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.052 to $2.997 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.047 to $4.166 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown, with the exception of this week’s Federal Open Market meeting.

What I’m Watching This Week – 20 October 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 17, 2025)

Last week saw another period of volatility in the stock market, largely driven by U.S.-China trade tensions, the ongoing government shutdown, and concerns over the health of the banking sector. Despite market swings throughout the week, stocks ultimately pushed higher by week’s end, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains. The financial sector was a major source of volatility last week after reports of loan issues related to alleged fraud at some regional banks sparked credit concerns. However, stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings data from some major banks helped quell investor consternation. The 10-year Treasury yields dipped below 4.00% midweek before climbing later in the week. Crude oil prices declined for the third straight week, while gold prices surged past $4,300.00 per ounce earlier in the week before settling at nearly $4,250.00.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/17Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2245,479.6046,190.611.56%8.57%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,204.4322,679.972.14%17.45%
S&P 5005,881.636,552.516,664.011.70%13.30%
Russell 20002,230.162,394.592,452.172.40%9.95%
Global Dow4,863.015,863.265,956.581.59%22.49%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.00%-4.25%4.00%-4.25%0 bps-25 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.05%4.00%-5 bps-57 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4498.9698.46-0.51%-9.20%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$58.86$57.59-2.16%-19.75%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,027.70$4,249.105.50%61.04%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.061 per gallon on October 13, $0.063 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.110 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 13, the East Coast price ticked down $0.032 to $2.952 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.121 to $2.812 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.096 to $2.623 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.017 to $3.049 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.013 to $4.213 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown.

What I’m Watching This Week – 13 October 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 10, 2025)

Wall Street was marked by volatility throughout last week. Major indexes, particularly the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, reached new record highs earlier in the week, driven by an advance in AI stocks and favorable corporate earnings reports. However, the market endured a significant selloff last Friday, reversing much of the week’s earlier gains. Investor sentiment turned negative following a threat by President Trump to impose a “massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese imports, reigniting fears of a trade war. As a result, the S&P 500 declined following a seven-day winning streak. The Dow also declined, while the NASDAQ saw the sharpest losses, with tech shares among the biggest decliners. The government shutdown continued into its second week, increasing uncertainty and delaying the release of key economic data. Ten-year Treasury yields fell below 4.10%, while gold prices climbed above $4,000.00 per ounce, a jump that could be a sign of investor anxiety over deficits and potential inflation.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/10Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2246,758.2845,479.60-2.73%6.90%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,780.5122,204.43-2.53%14.98%
S&P 5005,881.636,715.796,552.51-2.43%11.41%
Russell 20002,230.162,476.182,394.59-3.29%7.37%
Global Dow4,863.015,978.915,863.26-1.93%20.57%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.00%-4.25%4.00%-4.25%0 bps-25 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.11%4.05%-6 bps-52 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4497.7198.961.28%-8.74%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$60.84$58.86-3.25%-17.98%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$3,909.90$4,027.703.01%52.65%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.124 per gallon on October 6, $0.006 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.012 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 6, the East Coast price ticked up $0.001 to $2.984 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.005 to $2.933 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.047 to $2.719 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.044 to $3.066 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.012 to $4.226 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data for September is ordinarily out this week with the release of the Consumer Price Index. However, the government shutdown has delayed the release of this information.