Last week was a volatile one for stocks, largely in response to mixed economic data, corporate earnings reports, and the anticipation of a key speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the end of the week. The benchmark indexes listed here ebbed and flowed for much of the week until last Friday, when equities surged after Powell hinted at a likely interest rate cut in September. The S&P 500, the Russell 2000, and the Global Dow each posted weekly gains, with the Dow reaching a record high last Friday. The NASDAQ ended the week in the red despite an end-of-week rally. Treasury yields edged higher earlier in the week, but the prospects of an interest rate cut pulled yields lower by week’s end. Crude oil prices posted their first weekly gain after falling in each of the past two weeks.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 8/22
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,946.12
45,631.74
1.53%
7.26%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
21,622.98
21,496.54
-0.58%
11.32%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,449.80
6,466.91
0.27%
9.95%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,286.52
2,361.95
3.30%
5.91%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,724.32
5,781.00
0.99%
18.88%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.32%
4.26%
-6 bps
-31 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.86
97.72
-0.14%
-9.89%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$63.12
$63.76
1.01%
-11.15%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,382.00
$3,417.00
1.03%
29.51%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The number of issued residential building permits fell 2.8% in July and was down 5.7% from July 2024. The number of single-family building permits in July was 0.5% above the June estimate. Housing starts in July were 5.2% above the revised June estimate and 12.9% higher than the July 2024 rate. Single-family housing starts in July were 2.8% above the revised June estimate. The number of housing completions in July was 6.0% above the revised June estimate but was 13.5% below the July 2024 rate. Single-family housing completions in July were 11.6% above the revised June figure.
Sales of existing homes rose 2.0% in July, reflecting a slight improvement in housing affordability. Existing home sales were up 0.8% from July 2024. Inventory of existing homes ticked down from a supply of 4.7 months in June to 4.6 months last month. The median existing-home price was $422,400 in July, down from $432,700 in June but 0.2% above the July 2024 estimate of $421,400. Sales of existing single-family homes also rose 2.0% in July and were up 1.1% over the last 12 months. The median existing single-family home price was $428,500 in July, lower than the June estimate of $438,600 but higher than the July 2024 figure of $427,200. Inventory of existing single-family homes in July sat at a 4.5-month supply.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.125 per gallon on August 18, $0.007 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.257 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of August 18, the East Coast price decreased $0.008 to $2.997 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.003 to $2.994 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.065 to $2.745 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.005 to $3.164 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.012 to $4.044 per gallon.
For the week ended August 16, there were 235,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 9 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 9 was 1,972,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. This was the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021, when it was 2,041,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended August 2 were New Jersey (2.7%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Minnesota (2.2%), California (2.1%), the District of Columbia (2.1%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Oregon (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 9 were in California (+741), New York (+630), Rhode Island (+570), Michigan (+527), and Maryland (+343), while the largest decreases were in Iowa (-704), Illinois (-334), New Jersey (-251), Pennsylvania (-158), and Oregon (-153).
Eye on the Week Ahead
This week reveals the second iteration of gross domestic product for the second quarter. The initial estimate of GDP had the economy growing at a rate of 3.0%. Also out this week is the July report on personal income and expenditures. Included in that report are the estimates of consumer spending and prices for consumer goods, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
Stocks enjoyed another winning week, despite a pullback last Friday. Overall, investor sentiment remained optimistic due to continued expectations of an interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve next month. The latest data (see below) revealed that inflationary pressures showed signs of moving higher. Retail sales advanced in July, as expected, as summer spending remained solid, although sales in some sectors exposed to higher tariffs declined. In addition, more tariffs could be forthcoming after President Trump said he would announce tariffs on imports of steel and semiconductor chips in the coming weeks. Health care outperformed among the market sectors, while industrials, real estate, and utilities declined. Bond yields held around 4.3% for most of the week. Crude oil prices declined as traders awaited the outcome of talks between Presidents Trump and Putin, with expectations that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could lead to increased Russian oil production.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 8/15
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,175.61
44,946.12
1.74%
5.65%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
21,450.02
21,622.98
0.81%
11.97%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,389.45
6,449.80
0.94%
9.66%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,218.42
2,286.52
3.07%
2.53%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,615.85
5,724.32
1.93%
17.71%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.28%
4.32%
4 bps
-25 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
98.26
97.86
-0.41%
-9.76%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$63.44
$63.12
-0.50%
-12.04%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,452.40
$3,382.00
-2.04%
28.18%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The Consumer Price Index for July rose 0.2% after increasing 0.3% the prior month. Shelter prices rose 0.2% in July and were the primary factor in the monthly increase. In July, food prices were unchanged from the previous month, while energy prices fell 1.1%. Prices less food and energy (core prices) advanced 0.3% in July (0.2% in June). Over the last 12 months, consumer prices have risen 2.7%, unchanged from the same period ended in June. Core prices rose 3.1% for the 12 months ended in July, up 0.2 percentage point from the June figure.
The Producer Price Index rose 0.9% in July after being unchanged in June. Producer prices advanced 3.3% for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4% in February 2025. A 1.1% increase in prices for services accounted for more than 75% of the overall increase in prices. Goods prices rose 0.7% last month. In July, producer prices less foods and energy rose 0.4%, while prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.6%. This report may evidence a jump in consumer prices down the line as higher tariffs are passed through.
Retail sales rose 0.5% in July and were 3.9% above the July 2024 estimate. Retail trade sales were up 0.7% last month and 3.7% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 0.8% from June and 8.0% from last year. Sales at food services and drinking places fell 0.4% in July but were up 5.6% from a year ago.
U.S. import prices increased 0.4% in July, while export prices ticked up 0.1%. Since July 2024, import prices declined 0.2%, while export prices advanced 2.2%.
Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1% in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3% in June. In July, mining declined 0.4% and utilities decreased 0.2%. Total IP in July was 1.4% above its year-earlier level. Since July 2024, manufacturing increased 1.4%, mining rose 1.9%, and utilities advanced 0.8%.
The Treasury deficit for July was $291 billion. July has been a deficit month 69 times out of 71 fiscal years, primarily because there are no major corporate or individual tax due dates in this month. In July, government receipts totaled $338 billion, while expenditures were $630 billion. Through the first 10 months of the fiscal year, receipts totaled $4,347 billion, while outlays added up to $5,975 billion, rendering a total deficit of $1,629 billion. This compares with a total deficit of $1,517 billion for the same period last fiscal year, a difference of $112 billion.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.118 per gallon on August 11, $0.022 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.296 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of August 11, the East Coast price decreased $0.011 to $3.005 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.046 to $2.997 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price ticked down $0.051 to $2.680 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.032 to $3.159 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.009 to $4.032 per gallon.
For the week ended August 9, there were 224,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 2 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 2 was 1,953,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 26 were New Jersey (2.7%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.5%), California (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), the District of Columbia (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Connecticut (1.9%), Oregon, (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 2 were in Texas (+1,002), New Jersey (+942), Connecticut (+555), Oregon (+488), and Pennsylvania (+445), while the largest decreases were in New York (-1,017), California (-924), Kansas (-506), Georgia (-375), and Louisiana (-341).
Eye on the Week Ahead
July data on housing starts and existing home sales is available this week. The housing sector has slowed somewhat due to elevated mortgage rates and asking prices.
Wall Street rebounded from the previous week’s sell-off. Stocks jumped higher last Monday, aided by major dip-buying. However, investors pulled away from risk midweek, particularly following President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which took effect last Thursday. Nevertheless, stocks experienced a major uptick last Friday to end the week higher. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit record highs, while the Dow and the Russell 2000 also made solid gains. Speculation increased that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September following the latest weak jobs report and the imposition of last week’s new tariffs. Information technology, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples led the market sectors. Bond values trended higher, pulling yields lower. Crude oil prices fell to a nearly two-month low amid concerns over growing tariffs.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 8/8
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
43,588.58
44,175.61
1.35%
3.83%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
20,650.13
21,450.02
3.87%
11.08%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,238.01
6,389.45
2.43%
8.63%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,166.78
2,218.42
2.38%
-0.53%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,471.41
5,615.85
2.64%
15.48%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.22%
4.28%
6 bps
-29 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
98.70
98.26
-0.45%
-9.39%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$67.23
$63.44
-5.64%
-11.59%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,413.50
$3,452.40
1.14%
30.85%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The latest report on the goods and services trade deficit was released on August 5 and showed that the goods and services deficit was $60.2 billion in June, down $11.5 billion, or 16.0%, from the revised May estimate. June exports were $277.3 billion, $1.3 billion, or 0.5%, less than May exports. June imports were $337.5 billion, $12.8 billion, or 3.7%, less than May imports. Since June 2024, the goods and services deficit increased $161.5 billion, or 38.3%. Exports increased $82.2 billion, or 5.2%. Imports increased $243.7 billion, or 12.1%.
Business activity in the services sector increased at its sharpest pace so far this year amid solid and accelerated expansion in new business. Companies responded to higher workloads by hiring additional staff, albeit only modestly. Meanwhile, tariffs continued to add to inflationary pressures, resulting in faster increases in both input costs and output prices. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index rose to a seven-month high of 55.7 in July, up from 52.9 in June.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.140 per gallon on August 4, $0.017 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.308 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of August 4, the East Coast price increased $0.017 to $3.016 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.029 to $3.043 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price ticked down $0.017 to $2.731 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.006 to $3.127 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.028 to $4.023 per gallon.
For the week ended August 2, there were 226,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 26 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 26 was 1,974,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. This was the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021, when it was 2,041,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 19 were New Jersey (2.8%), Puerto Rico (2.7%), Rhode Island (2.6%), California (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), the District of Columbia (2.1%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Oregon (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 26 were in Kansas (+254), Vermont (+252), Louisiana (+87), Maryland (+75), and Mississippi (+58), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-6,212), Texas (-2,720), Georgia (-1,949), New York (-1,464), and California (-1,174).
Eye on the Week Ahead
Inflation data is on the docket this week with the releases of the July Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. June saw the CPI increase 0.3%, while the PPI was flat.
The U.S. stock market endured a significant downturn last week, largely due to unexpectedly weak hiring data (see below) and the imposition of new tariffs by President Trump. After reaching record highs for six straight sessions in the prior week, the S&P 500 ended last week in the red, with last Friday marking the worst single-day performance since May. The remaining benchmark indexes listed here also closed last week lower. Investors moved from risk on the heels of an underwhelming jobs report for July, which led to concerns of slowing economic growth, while new tariffs on imports from several U.S. trading partners heightened fears of accelerating inflation. Weak hiring numbers also increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. This sent Treasury yields sharply lower, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting their lowest rates since the end of April. Crude oil prices ended last week higher, although reports that OPEC+ may agree to increase production could drag prices lower.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 8/1
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,901.92
43,588.58
-2.92%
2.45%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
21,108.32
20,650.13
-2.17%
6.94%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,388.64
6,238.01
-2.36%
6.06%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,261.07
2,166.78
-4.17%
-2.84%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,639.91
5,471.41
-2.99%
12.51%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.38%
4.22%
-16 bps
-35 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.69
98.70
1.03%
-8.98%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$65.04
$67.23
3.37%
-6.31%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,337.80
$3,413.50
2.27%
29.37%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
By a 9-2 tally, with one member absent, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain interest rates at their current 4.25%-4.50% range. In making its decision, the Committee noted that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year, while swings in net exports continued to affect data. However, the unemployment rate remained low, and labor market conditions were solid, although inflation was somewhat elevated. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee indicated that it would carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Nevertheless, the Committee observed that uncertainty about the economic outlook remained elevated.
Job growth in July came in well below expectations, with the addition of only 73,000 new jobs. July’s total follows larger-than-normal downward revisions in May and June, which combined, were 258,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%. Both the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio dipped 0.1 percentage point to 62.2% and 59.6%, respectively. The number of unemployed, at 7.2 million, rose by 221,000 last month. In July, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 179,000 to 1.8 million, accounting for 24.9% of all unemployed people. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.12, or 0.3%, to $36.44 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%. The average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in July.
The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0%, according to the initial estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). In the first quarter, GDP decreased 0.5%. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports (-30.3%), which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending (1.4%). These movements were partly offset by decreases in private domestic investment (-15.6%) and exports (-1.8%).
According to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumer spending increased 0.3% in June. Prices consumers paid for goods and services advanced 0.3% last month. Prices excluding food and energy (core prices) also increased 0.3%. Both personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each advanced 0.3% in June.
The international trade in goods deficit was $86.0 billion in June, down $10.4 billion, or 10.8%, from the May estimate. Exports of goods for June were $178.2 billion, $1.1 billion, or 0.6%, less than May exports. Imports of goods for June were $264.2 billion, $11.5 billion, or 4.2%, less than May imports. Since June 2024, exports have risen 3.6%, while imports declined 2.5%.
According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, there were 7.4 million job openings in June, down from 7.7 million in May. The number of hires in June, at 5.2 million, fell from the May estimate of 5.5 million. Total separations in June were 5.1 million compared to 5.2 million in May. The number of job openings for May was revised down by 57,000 to 7.7 million, the number of hires was revised down by 38,000 to 5.5 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 29,000 to 5.2 million.
Operating conditions in the manufacturing sector worsened slightly in July as demand stagnated and tariff uncertainty continued to dominate. International sales fell and uncertainty over federal government policies weighed on sentiment, which led to a decline in employment. On the price front, input costs continued to rise steeply, again linked to tariffs, as selling prices continued to increase markedly, rising to the second-highest level since November 2022. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 49.8 in July. That was down noticeably from June’s 52.9 following six successive months of growth, while representing the first overall deterioration of operating conditions in 2025.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.123 per gallon on July 28, $0.002 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.361 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of July 28, the East Coast price decreased $0.007 to $2.999 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.028 to $3.014 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price ticked up $0.009 to $2.748 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.016 to $3.121 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.027 to $3.995 per gallon.
For the week ended July 26, there were 218,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 19 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 19 was 1,946,000, unchanged from the previous week’s level. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 12 were New Jersey (2.8%), Puerto Rico (2.7%), Rhode Island (2.6%), Minnesota (2.2%), California (2.1%), the District of Columbia (2.1%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Oregon (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 19 were in Kentucky (+4,895), Texas (+424), Iowa (+298), Indiana (+5), and Vermont (+1), while the largest decreases were in New York (-12,505), California (-4,618), Michigan (-4,116), Pennsylvania (-3,350), and New Jersey (-2,655).
Eye on the Week Ahead
This is a slow week for economic reports. Investors, instead, will look toward next week when the latest inflation data is released.
The economy was generally solid in July, with the stock market continuing its upward trend from the second quarter, albeit with some volatility. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reached record highs in July, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and positive economic sentiment. For much of the month, large caps generally outperformed smaller companies, although the Russell 2000 managed to close July marginally higher.
Inflation remained “somewhat elevated.” As of June 2025, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 2.7% year over year, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was at 2.9%. While headline inflation ticked up, core inflation on an annualized basis in Q2 was slower at 2.4% compared to 3.0% in Q1. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% since June 2024, 0.2 percentage point above the annual rate for the period ended in May. Core prices advanced 2.8% over the last 12 months, unchanged from the comparable period ended in May. The Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate remained at 2.0%.
The U.S. economy showed signs of renewed growth in the second quarter of 2025 following a modest decline in the first quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.0% in the second quarter following a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter (see below). Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter after ticking up 0.5% in the first quarter. Through the first half of the year, GDP’s annualized growth rate is projected to be 1.3%. Trade policies continued to be a significant factor for the economy and for investors. The market’s deepest decline in 2025 occurred after President Trump’s new tariffs announcement in April, though investor sentiment improved following delays or reductions in most tariffs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its global growth outlook for 2025, partly due to early stockpiling ahead of U.S. tariffs and lower-than-expected effective U.S. tariff rates. However, the IMF flagged downside risks if trade shocks worsen and warned that inflation could remain above target in the United States.
The labor market remained solid, with the unemployment rate staying historically low. In June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 147,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.1%. This was higher than the consensus forecast and defied expectations of a rise. Wages rose 3.7% over the past 12 months ended in June. The number of job openings fell by nearly 275,000 in June to 7.4 million, which was roughly in line with expectations. The latest unemployment data showed total claims paid through mid-July increased by 72,000 from a year earlier (see below).
According to FactSet, with roughly 34% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 80% of companies reported positive earnings per share (EPS). However, the year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 6.4% thus far, which, if it holds, would be the lowest earnings growth rate since the first quarter of 2024. Communication services, information technology, and financials are sectors reporting annualized earnings growth, while six sectors, led by energy, are reporting an annualized decline in earnings.
The real estate market had mixed results in June, with sales of existing homes falling, while new home sales rose. Mortgage rates remained elevated. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.72% as of July 31, down 0.2 percentage point from the rate one week before and below the rate of 6.71% one year ago. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage showed little movement, remaining within the same narrow range for the fourth consecutive week. Continued economic growth, along with moderating house prices and rising inventory, bodes well for buyers and sellers alike.
Industrial production advanced in June, while also increasing over the last 12 months. Manufacturing output and utilities each increased, while mining contracted in June. Purchasing managers reported manufacturing expanded in June, with operating conditions improving to the greatest degree in over three years. Activity in the services sector also expanded in June, but at a slower rate than in the previous month.
The bond market in July was primarily influenced by a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical events, and ongoing tariff discourse. Ten-year Treasury yields closed the month higher, moving modestly throughout most of the month. The two-year note, which is more sensitive to Fed policy, closed July at about 3.9%, up from 3.7% at the end of June. The dollar index was muted for much of July, only to rise at the end of the month, while posting its first month-over-month gain of the year. Gold prices rose in July, marking their sixth straight monthly gain. Crude oil prices increased for the month, reaching six-week highs along the way. The retail price of regular gasoline was $3.123 per gallon on July 28, $0.041 below the price a month earlier and $0.361 lower than the price a year ago.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Month
As of 7/31
Monthly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,094.77
44,130.98
0.08%
3.73%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
20,369.73
21,122.45
3.70%
9.38%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,204.95
6,339.39
2.17%
7.78%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,175.04
2,211.65
1.68%
-0.83%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,519.07
5,507.67
-0.21%
13.26%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.23%
4.36%
13 bps
-21 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
96.80
100.06
3.37%
-7.73%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$65.09
$69.45
6.70%
-3.22%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,319.30
$3,344.70
0.77%
26.77%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.
Latest Economic Reports
Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations in June after adding 147,000 new jobs (144,000 in May). The June total was in line with the average monthly gain of 146,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment was revised up by a combined 16,000 for April and May. In June, the unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. The number of unemployed persons in June, at 7.0 million, was 222,000 under the May estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, largely offsetting the May decrease. These individuals accounted for 23.3% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in June fell 0.1 percentage point from May to 62.3%. The employment-population ratio in June, at 59.7%, was unchanged from the May figure. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.08, or 0.2%, to $36.30 in May. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.7%. The average workweek edged down 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in June.
There were 218,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 26, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,946,000. A year ago, there were 248,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,874,000.
FOMC/interest rates: Following its meeting in July, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% for a fifth straight time, although two governors dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut. While the Committee noted that fluctuations in net exports continued to influence the data, recent indicators suggest that current economic activity has moderated. This assessment differs from more recent prior statements wherein the Committee described the economy as proceeding at a solid pace. Nevertheless, the FOMC pointed out that the unemployment rate remained low although inflation was somewhat elevated. Overall, the Committee indicated that uncertainty about the economic outlook persisted.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, advanced at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter, rebounding from a 0.5% decrease in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, drove the second-quarter increase, climbing 1.4% after ticking up 0.5% in the first quarter. Spending rose for both services (1.1%) and goods (2.2%). After surging 37.9% in the first quarter, imports (which are a negative in the calculation of GDP) fell 30.3% in the second quarter. However, exports also declined in the second quarter, falling 1.8%, offsetting a 0.4% advance in the first quarter. Private investment declined 15.6% in the second quarter, cutting into the 23.8% gain in the prior quarter.
June saw the federal budget register a surplus of $27 billion, while the deficit over the last 12 months was $1,337 billion. June receipts were $526 billion versus $466 billion a year ago. Tariffs added $27 billion to receipts in June. Government outlays in June were $499 billion versus $537 billion a year ago. The deficit through the first nine months of fiscal year 2025, at $1,337 billion, was above the $1,273 billion deficit over the first nine months of the previous fiscal year. Thus far for fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $2,059 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $1,181 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income rose 0.3% in June (-0.4% in May), while disposable personal income also advanced 0.3% (-0.5% in May). Consumer spending increased 0.3% in June after being unchanged the previous month. In June, the PCE price index rose 0.3% as did the PCE price index less food and energy (core prices). The PCE price index rose 2.6% since June 2024, while core prices increased 2.8% over the same period. In June, prices for goods increased 0.3% and services rose 0.2%. Food prices increased 0.3%, while energy prices increased 0.9%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June after increasing 0.1% in May. Over the 12 months ended in June, the CPI rose 2.7%, 0.3 percentage point above the rate for the 12 months ended in May. Core prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% last month and 2.9% since June 2024. Prices for shelter rose 0.2% in June (+0.3% in May) and were the primary factor in the monthly increase. Food rose increased 0.3% last month, the same increase as in May. Energy prices increased 0.9% in June as gasoline prices rose 1.0% over the month. Over the last 12 months ended in June, food prices increased 3.0%, energy prices declined 0.8%, and shelter prices rose 3.8%.
Prices at the wholesale level were unchanged in June following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in May, according to the Producer Price Index. Producer prices increased 2.3% for the 12 months ended in June after rising 2.6% for the 12-month period ended in May. Excluding food and energy, producer prices were unchanged in June but increased 2.6% for the year. In June, prices for goods increased 0.3% from the previous month and rose 1.7% since June 2024. Last month saw prices for services inch down 0.1% after a revised 0.4% increase in May. Prices for services rose 2.7% for the 12 months ended in June, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the 3.2% increase over the 12 months ended in May.
Housing: Sales of existing homes decreased 2.7% in June but were unchanged from the June 2024 figure. The median existing-home price, at $435,300, was a record high for the month of June, and marked the 24th consecutive month of yearly gains. The median existing-home price was above the May estimate of $423,700 and 2.0% higher than the year-earlier price of $426,900. Unsold inventory of existing homes in June represented a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally longer than the May supply of 4.6 months and above the 4.0-month supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.0% in June but were 0.6% above the estimate from June 2024. The median existing single-family home price was $441,500 in June ($428,800 in May), and 2.0% above the June 2024 estimate of $432,900.
New single-family home sales rose 0.6% in June but were 6.6% below the June 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in June was $401,800 ($422,700 in May), which was lower than the June 2024 estimate of $414,000. The June average sales price was $501,000 ($511,500 in May), up from the June 2024 average sales price of $499,500. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in June represented a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales pace, 1.0% above the May 2025 estimate of 9.7 months, and 16.7% above the June 2024 estimate of 8.4 months.
Manufacturing: Industrial production increased 0.3% in June after being unchanged in April and May. Manufacturing output increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.3% in May. Mining decreased 0.3% in June, while utilities rose 2.8%. Over the 12 months ended in June, total industrial production was 0.7% above its year-earlier reading. Since June 2024, manufacturing increased 0.8%, mining advanced 1.6% but utilities fell 0.8%.
New orders for durable goods fell 9.3% in June after increasing 16.5% in May. Transportation equipment drove the June decline after falling 22.4%. New orders excluding transportation increased 0.2%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4%. For the 12 months ended in June, durable goods orders advanced 7.9%.
Imports and exports: Import prices advanced 0.1% in June following a 0.4% (revised) decrease in May. Prices for imports declined 0.2% for the 12 months ended in June. Import fuel prices decreased 0.7% in June. Import fuel prices fell 15.7% over the past 12 months. Export prices increased 0.5% in June. Export prices increased 2.8% from June 2024 to June 2025.
The international trade in goods deficit in June was $86.0 billion, 10.8% below the May estimate. Exports of goods for June were 0.6% below May exports. Imports of goods for June were 4.2% under May imports. Over the 12 months ended in June, exports rose 3.6%, while imports decreased 2.5%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released July 3, saw the goods and services deficit expand 18.7% in May to $71.5 billion. Exports of goods decreased 4.0% to $279.0 billion in May. Imports of goods declined 0.1% to $350.5 billion. For the 12 months ended in May 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $175.0 billion, or 50.4%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $73.6 billion, or 5.5%. Imports increased $248.7 billion, or 14.8%.
International markets: European stocks climbed at the end of July after the European Union reached a trade deal with the United States, averting a potentially damaging trade war. European price levels have gradually increased, with annual inflation rising to 2.0% in June from a year earlier. European economic growth has slowed, with gross domestic product ticking up a modest 0.1% in the second quarter. July saw mixed performance in China’s stock market and economic indicators, influenced by ongoing trade dynamics, domestic policies, and a cautious global outlook. In July, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ticked up 0.8%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE rose 3.8%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 3.2%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 3.3%.
Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose 4.5 points to 74.4 but was still below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.
Eye on the Month Ahead
August is usually a relatively slow month in the market as investors focus on vacation plans before the end of the summer. However, it will be interesting to see whether, and to what extent, the White House is able to negotiate trade deals that would lead to the reduction of tariffs, most of which are to take effect on August 1.
The stock market last week had a mixed performance across major indexes, largely influenced by corporate earnings reports and ongoing discussions around trade tariffs. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reached new record highs last week, driven by strong performances from several big tech companies, which reported better-than-expected profits. In fact, last Friday’s gains marked the fifth straight record close for the S&P 500. Last week was a busy one for second-quarter earnings. Many companies exceeded expectations, while those that missed expectations saw sharp sell-offs. Tariffs remained a significant factor impacting market sentiment. While there’s some enthusiasm for trade deals, the impact of increased tariffs has impacted some market sectors. Speaking of market sectors, 10 of the 11 S&P sectors ended last week higher, with only consumer staples closing the week in the red. Treasury yields showed some movement, with the 10-year Treasury yield easing somewhat. Crude oil prices settled at $65.04, marking their lowest price since June 30 as concerns over a weakening economy brought fears of waning demand.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 7/25
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,342.19
44,901.92
1.26%
5.54%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
20,895.66
21,108.32
1.02%
9.31%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,296.79
6,388.64
1.46%
8.62%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,240.01
2,261.07
0.94%
1.39%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,527.29
5,639.91
2.04%
15.98%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.43%
4.38%
-5 bps
-19 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
98.46
97.69
-0.78%
-9.91%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$66.12
$65.04
-1.63%
-9.36%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,355.30
$3,337.80
-0.52%
26.50%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June but were unchanged from June 2024. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®, record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a moderate supply are discouraging some potential home buyers, particularly first-time home purchasers. The median existing-home sale price in June was $435,300, up from the May price of $423,700, and higher than the June 2024 price of $426,900. Inventory ticked up from a 4.6-month supply in May to 4.7 months in June. Sales of single-family existing homes dipped 3.0% last month. The median single-family existing home price was $441,500 in June, compared to $428,800 in May and $432,900 in June 2024. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as of July 17 was 6.75%, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.72% one week before and down from 6.77% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in June were 0.6% above the May rate but 6.6% below the June 2024 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale sat at a 9.8-month supply at the current sales pace, which was 1.0% above the May estimate and 16.7% higher than the inventory for June 2024. The median sales price of new houses sold in June was $401,800. This was 4.9% below the May price of $422,700 and 2.9% below the June 2024 price of $414,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in June was $501,000, 2.0% under the May price of $511,500 but 1.1% above the June 2024 price of $495,500.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $32.1 billion, or 9.3%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4%. Transportation equipment was a major contributor to the overall decrease, falling $32.6 billion, or 22.4%. New orders for nondefense capital goods in June decreased $31.4 billion, or 24.0%. New orders for defense capital goods in June decreased $2.0 billion, or 10.2%.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.121 per gallon on July 21, $0.009 per gallon below the prior week’s price, and $0.350 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of July 21, the East Coast price increased $0.019 to $3.006 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.047 to $2.986 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price ticked up $0.001 to $2.739 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.009 to $3.137 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.019 to $4.022 per gallon.
For the week ended July 19, there were 217,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 12 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 12 was 1,955,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 5,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 5 were New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.7%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Minnesota (2.4%), California (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), the District of Columbia (2.0%), Oregon (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 12 were in New York (+10,001), Nevada (+4,397), Texas (+2,984), Georgia (+2,793), and Pennsylvania (+1,942), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-4,867), New Jersey (-3,206), Tennessee (-2,574), Kentucky (-1,579), and Iowa (-1,385).
Eye on the Week Ahead
Two very important market-moving reports are out this week. The first estimate of gross domestic product for the second quarter is released this week. The economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter. The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. It is possible that the FOMC may decide to reduce the federal funds rate at this time, although there appears to be some disagreement among Committee members as to the timing of an interest rate reduction.
Stocks began last week mostly lower on mixed bank earnings and rising inflation data. While the June Consumer Price Index was in line with expectations (see below), it is worth noting that some imported goods, such as coffee, furniture, clothing, and appliances, climbed higher, which could be due to increased tariffs. However, favorable earnings data toward the end of last week and a better-than-expected retail sales report helped push stocks higher. For most of the week, investors weighed the White House’s push for higher tariffs on the European Union against strong corporate earnings and some favorable economic data. Among the market sectors, utilities and information technology outperformed, while health care, materials, and energy lagged. Long-term bond prices changed little, keeping yields steady. Crude oil prices slipped lower. The dollar edged higher for the second week in a row. Gold prices fell for the first time in the last three weeks.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 7/18
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,371.51
44,342.19
-0.07%
4.23%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
20,585.53
20,895.66
1.51%
8.21%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,259.75
6,296.79
0.59%
7.06%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,234.83
2,240.01
0.23%
0.44%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,536.57
5,527.29
-0.17%
13.66%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.42%
4.43%
1 bps
-14 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.90
98.46
0.57%
-9.20%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$68.75
$66.12
-3.83%
-7.86%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,371.30
$3,355.30
-0.47%
27.17%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May. The June advance was the highest monthly increase since January 2025. Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased 2.7% after rising 2.4% over the 12 months ended in May. Prices for shelter rose 0.2% in June and were the primary factors in the monthly increase. Energy prices rose 0.9% in June as gasoline prices increased 1.0% over the month. Prices for food increased 0.3%. Prices less food and energy (core prices) rose 0.2% in June following a 0.1% increase in May. Core prices rose 2.9% over the last 12 months.
Wholesale prices were unchanged in June, according to the latest Producer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Producer prices rose 0.3% in May. For the 12 months ended in June, producer prices rose 2.3% after advancing 2.6% for the 12 months ended in May. Producer prices excluding food and energy were unchanged in June, as were prices excluding food, energy, and trade services. In June, a 0.3% increase in prices for goods was offset by a 0.1% decrease in prices for services. Over the last 12 months, goods prices rose 1.7%, while prices for services advanced 2.7%.
Import prices advanced 0.1% in June following a 0.4% decrease in May. Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in June. Prices for imports fell 0.2% from June 2024 to June 2025, matching the 12-month decline for the year ended May 2025. Those were the largest annual decreases since the index fell 0.9% for the year ended February 2024. Prices for exports increased 0.5% in June, after declining 0.6% the previous month. Export prices increased 2.8% for the year ended in June, the largest 12-month rise since the 12-month period ended January 2025.
Retail sales rose 0.6% in June and climbed 3.9% from June 2024. Retail trade sales were up 0.6% last month, and rose 3.5% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 4.5% from last year, while sales at food service and drinking places were up 6.6% from June 2024.
Industrial production (IP) beat expectations after increasing 0.3% in June. IP was unchanged in April and May. For the second quarter, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1%. In June, manufacturing output ticked up 0.1%, and the index for mining decreased 0.3%. The index for utilities rose 2.8%. Total IP in June was 0.7% above its year-earlier level.
The number of residential building permits issued in June was 0.2% above the May estimate but was 4.4% below the total from 12 months earlier. Issued building permits for single-family homes were 3.7% under the May figure. The number of housing starts in June was 4.6% above the May total but was 0.5% below the June 2024 rate. Single-family housing starts in June were 4.6% below the May figure. Residential housing completions in June were 14.7% below the May estimate and 24.1% under the June 2024 rate. Single-family housing completions in June were 12.5% below the May rate.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.130 per gallon on July 14, $0.005 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.366 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of July 14, the East Coast price decreased $0.033 to $2.987 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.052 to $3.033 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.053 to $2.738 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.005 to $3.128 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.034 to $4.041 per gallon.
For the week ended July 12, there were 221,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 5 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 5 was 1,956,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 28 were New Jersey (2.5%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Puerto Rico (2.4%), Minnesota (2.2%), California (2.1%), Massachusetts (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Connecticut (1.8%), Oregon (1.8%), and Pennsylvania (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 5 were in Michigan (+8,854), Tennessee (+3,039), Kentucky (+2,982), New York (+2,279), and Ohio (+1,889), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,193), Nevada (-2,091), Texas (-1,163), Oregon (-1,003), and Minnesota (-984).
Eye on the Week Ahead
Most of this week’s economic data focuses on the housing sector. The June reports on existing home sales and new home sales are available this week. May saw existing home sales tick up 0.8%. Inventory of existing homes available for purchase increased in May. Higher mortgage rates continued to hinder sales. Conversely, new home sales fell more than 13.0% in May. Despite the slowdown, new home prices continued to increase in May.
Last week, the Trump administration sent letters to dozens of trading partners informing them of country-specific reciprocal tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50%. The levies were initially slated to take effect on July 9, but were pushed back until August 1, presumably to leave room for continued negotiations. The stock market seemed to shrug off tariff news for much of the week before falling back from Thursday’s record highs on Friday and ending slightly in the red. The dollar and gold prices both advanced during the week. U.S. copper prices soared to all-time highs on Tuesday after President Trump said the United States will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, a metal that is a critical component in many different types of manufactured goods. And on Friday, Trump announced that a major statement on Russia was forthcoming, which led to a spike in oil prices caused by expectations of additional sanctions on Russian energy.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 7/11
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,828.53
44,371.51
-1.02%
4.30%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
20,601.10
20,585.53
-0.08%
6.60%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,279.35
6,259.75
-0.31%
6.43%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,249.04
2,234.83
-0.63%
0.21%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,573.04
5,536.57
-0.65%
13.85%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.34%
4.42%
8 bps
-15 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.18
97.90
0.74%
-9.72%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$67.00
$68.75
2.61%
-4.19%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,342.90
$3,371.30
0.85%
27.77%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
The Treasury budget posted a small surplus of $27.0 billion in June, following May’s $315.7 billion deficit. For fiscal year 2025, the deficit sits at $1,337 billion, compared to $1,273 billion over the same period in the prior fiscal year. To date in FY25, total receipts equaled $4,008 billion, while total outlays were $5,345 billion.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.125 per gallon on July 7, $0.039 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.364 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of July 7, the East Coast price decreased $0.011 to $3.020 per gallon; the Midwest price dropped $0.070 to $2.981 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.054 to $2.685 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.042 to $3.133 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.034 to $4.075 per gallon.
For the week ended July 5, there were 227,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 28 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 28 was 1,965,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 21 were Puerto Rico (2.4%), Minnesota (2.3%), New Jersey (2.3%), California (2.2%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Washington (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Oregon (1.8%), and Pennsylvania (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 28 were in New Jersey (+4,684), New York (+3,323), Illinois (+1,840), Michigan (+826), and Rhode Island (+587), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-2,910), California (-2,822), Connecticut (-2,407), Minnesota (-1,508), and Wisconsin (-1,036).
Eye on the Week Ahead
Inflation data for June is available this week with the releases of the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, and the retail sales report. Overall, inflationary pressures have been generally muted; however, prices ticked up in May. The June data could begin to reflect the impact of tariffs on goods and services prices.
Stocks advanced notably during the Fourth of July holiday-shortened week. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recorded record highs as investors were encouraged by a better-than-expected labor report (see below). Tech stocks and AI-driven companies moved higher following the White House’s decision to lift export restrictions on chip-design software to China. All 11 market sectors gained last week, led by materials, financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary. The favorable jobs report also helped drive bond yields higher, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing 6.0 basis points. Crude oil prices posted weekly gains, despite slipping at the end of the week. Prices rose during the week after Iran decided to halt cooperation with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, which heightened global tensions and threatened production and demand. Gold prices also closed last week higher, after a strong labor report dulled hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate decrease.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
Prior Week
As of 7/3
Weekly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
43,819.27
44,828.53
2.30%
5.37%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
20,273.46
20,601.10
1.62%
6.68%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,173.07
6,279.35
1.72%
6.76%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,172.53
2,249.04
3.52%
0.85%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,501.93
5,573.04
1.29%
14.60%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.28%
4.34%
6 bps
-23 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
97.29
97.18
-0.11%
-10.38%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$65.12
$67.00
2.89%
-6.63%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,287.10
$3,342.90
1.70%
26.70%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week’s Economic News
Employment grew by 147,000 in June, which exceeded expectations but was in line with the average monthly gain of 146,000 over the prior 12 months. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. The federal government continued to lose jobs. Employment in April and May was revised up by 16,000 combined. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. The labor force participation rate also dipped 0.1 percentage point to 62.3%, while the employment-population ratio, at 59.7%, was unchanged from the previous month. The total number of unemployed fell by 222,000 to 7.0 million. In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.3% of all unemployed people. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.08, or 0.2%, to $36.30 in June. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7%. The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in June.
The number of job openings in May increased by 374,000 to 7.8 million, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. The number of job openings increased in accommodation and food services (314,000) and in finance and insurance (91,000). The number of job openings decreased in federal government (39,000). The number of hires ticked down by about 100,000 to 5.5 million, while the number of total separations was little changed at 5.2 million. In May, the number of layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.6 million and 1.0 million, respectively.
The goods and services trade deficit was $71.5 billion in May, up $11.3 billion, or 18.7%, from April. May exports were $279.0 billion, $11.6 billion, or 4.0%, less than April exports. May imports were $350.5 billion, $0.3 billion, or 0.1%, less than April imports. The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $11.2 billion to $97.5 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $26.0 billion. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased $175.0 billion, or 50.4%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $73.6 billion, or 5.5%. Imports increased $248.7 billion, or 14.8%.
According to S&P Global, the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded again in June, with operating conditions improving to the greatest degree in over three years. Output increased for the first time since February, while new orders rose for a sixth successive month due to improved domestic and international demand. However, tariffs remained a prevalent theme, notably affecting purchasing decisions and prices. The latest data showed manufacturers increasing their purchases to the greatest extent since April 2022, reflecting efforts to build up inventories given ongoing trade and price uncertainty. Nonetheless, input costs still rose sharply, with inflation hitting its highest level for nearly three years. This prompted a rise in output charges, which increased to the highest level since September 2022.
The services sector saw expansion in June, but at a slower pace than in the previous month. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered 52.9 in June, down from 53.7 in May. The increase in business activity in June marked the 29th successive month of gains. However, business activity in the services sector remained well below levels recorded in the second half of 2024. An increase in domestic economic activity drove the overall June advance, while international sales fell for the third straight month as tariffs and U.S. trade policy uncertainty continued to weigh on foreign demand.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.164 per gallon on June 30, $0.049 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.315 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of June 30, the East Coast price decreased $0.041 to $3.031 per gallon; the Midwest price dropped $0.036 to $3.051 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.105 to $2.739 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.002 to $3.175 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell 0.053 to $4.109 per gallon.
For the week ended June 28, there were 233,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 21 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 21 was 1,964,000, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 14 were California (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), New Jersey (2.2%), Puerto Rico (2.2%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.8%), Illinois (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 21 were in New Jersey (+5,923), Connecticut (+2,333), Oregon (+1,171), Massachusetts (+1,091), and Rhode Island (+710), while the largest decreases were in Minnesota (-5,193), Pennsylvania (-3,515), Texas (-2,419), Illinois (-1,849), and Virginia (-1,206).
Eye on the Week Ahead
Next week is very light on economic reports, with only the release of the Treasury budget statement for June.
The Markets (second quarter through June 30, 2025)
Throughout the second quarter of 2025, global trade tensions caused by reciprocal tariffs and increasing unrest in the Middle East impacted the markets on a daily basis. A new wave of tariffs, particularly against China, created widespread market anxiety and triggered a downturn in April. This was followed by a 90-day de-escalation period announced in May, which temporarily paused some of the heightened tariffs and led to a sharp market rally. The uncertainty surrounding ongoing trade negotiations and the potential for new tariffs remained a key source of volatility throughout the quarter. After a tumultuous start to the quarter, the market showed remarkable resilience and ended June on a high note.
U.S. stocks rebounded in Q2. The S&P 500 began 2025 by enduring its first negative quarter since 2023, and followed that by a decline in April. However, the S&P 500 rebounded later in Q2 to post sharp gains in May and June. The NASDAQ, which had declined over 10.0% in the first quarter, showed strength in the second quarter, driven by growth in AI shares and digital stocks. The Dow and the small caps of the Russell 2000 also closed the second quarter higher. Among the market sectors, the second quarter saw information technology climb more than 23.0%, while communication services rose nearly 20.0%. Energy, health care, and real estate were the only market sectors to lose ground at the end of Q2. The bond market in the second quarter was characterized by heightened volatility and a complex interplay of economic and geopolitical factors, primarily driven by evolving tariff policies and persistent inflation concerns.
While inflation did not escalate to the level some analysts anticipated due to increased tariffs, consumer prices remained somewhat elevated. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gradually decreased, easing some of the inflation fears that had built up earlier in the year. Despite the moderation, inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. The Fed maintained a cautious stance on interest rates, keeping them unchanged, as it balanced the need to control inflation with the potential for an economic slowdown. Corporate earnings reached new highs in the first quarter. While analysts projected slower growth in Q2, early returns on earnings have been mostly favorable, offering cautious optimism for companies in the second quarter. Job growth, while steady, also declined in Q2. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% in the second quarter. Both new claims for unemployment benefits and continuing claims rose during the second quarter.
The U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, partly due to a surge in imports, as businesses increased costs for products and services in anticipation of tariff increases. While a rebound was expected for Q2, the overall growth trajectory of the economy for the remainder of 2025 is anticipated to be slower than in previous years. The U.S. real estate market could be best characterized in the second quarter by a continued upward trend in home prices, gradually improving inventory, and persistently elevated, though somewhat moderating, mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as of June 18 was 6.81%, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.84% one week before and lower than 6.87% one year ago. Gold prices in the second quarter saw significant activity, continuing the strong bullish trend from the first quarter. Gold prices remained at elevated levels, experiencing both sharp rallies and some pullbacks throughout Q2, continuing to set new record highs, with prices surpassing $3,400 per ounce and even touching $3,500 per ounce in April.
Gold, considered a safe haven during volatile economic times, had its best quarter since 1986 after rising nearly 20.0% in the first quarter, as the potential trade war and economic slowdown sent worried investors scurrying for more stable investments. Crude oil prices fluctuated in Q2, influenced by supply increases, softening demand forecasts, and lingering geopolitical tensions. While initial oversupply concerns and weak demand forecasts led to a dip, the latter part of the quarter saw prices rebound, largely driven by easing trade tensions and renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The retail price for regular gasoline was $3.213 per gallon on June 23, $0.053 above the price a month earlier but $0.225 below the price from a year ago.
Stock Market Indexes
Market/Index
2024 Close
As of June 30
Monthly Change
Quarterly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
42,544.22
44,094.77
4.32%
4.98%
3.64%
NASDAQ
19,310.79
20,369.73
6.57%
17.75%
5.48%
S&P 500
5,881.63
6,204.95
4.96%
10.57%
5.50%
Russell 2000
2,230.16
2,175.04
5.26%
8.16%
-2.47%
Global Dow
4,863.01
5,519.07
3.62%
8.09%
13.49%
fed. funds target rate
4.25%-4.50%
4.25%-4.50%
0 bps
0 bps
0 bps
10-year Treasuries
4.57%
4.23%
-17 bps
-1 bps
-34 bps
US Dollar-DXY
108.44
96.80
-2.65%
-7.09%
-10.73%
Crude Oil-CL=F
$71.76
$65.09
7.04%
-8.81%
-9.29%
Gold-GC=F
$2,638.50
$3,319.30
0.14%
5.16%
25.80%
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Latest Economic Reports
Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations in May after adding 139,000 new jobs (147,000 in April). The May total was short of the average monthly gain of 149,000. Employment was revised down by a combined 95,000 for March and April. In May, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The number of unemployed persons in May, at 7.2 million, changed marginally from the April estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 218,000 to 1.5 million. These individuals accounted for 20.4% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in May fell 0.2 percentage point from April to 62.4%. The employment-population ratio decreased 0.3 percentage point to 59.7%. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.15, or 0.4%, to $36.24 in May. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.9%. The average workweek was 34.3 hours for the third month in a row.
There were 236,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 21, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,974,000. A year ago, there were 233,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,844,000.
FOMC/interest rates: As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% following its meeting in June. While the Committee indicated that while current economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace and the unemployment rate remained low, inflation was somewhat elevated. The FOMC highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook and noted increased risks to both sides of its dual mandate of maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2.0%.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, decelerated at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025 following an increase of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Compared to the fourth quarter, the decrease in GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, a decrease in government spending, and a deceleration in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by an increase in investment. Consumer spending, as measured by the PCE index, rose 0.5% in the first quarter, compared to a 4.0% advance in the fourth quarter. Spending on services inched up 0.6% in the first quarter, compared with a 3.0% increase in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending on goods rose 0.1% in the first quarter (6.2% in the fourth quarter). Fixed investment increased 7.6% in the first quarter after decreasing 1.1% in the fourth quarter. Nonresidential (business) fixed investment rose 10.3% in the first quarter after falling 3.0% in the previous quarter. Residential fixed investment decreased 1.3% in the first quarter following a 5.5% increase in the fourth quarter. Exports advanced 0.4% in the first quarter, compared with a 0.2% decline in the previous quarter. Imports vaulted 37.9% in the first quarter after ticking down 1.9% in the fourth quarter.
May saw the federal budget register a deficit of $316 billion, in line with expectations and below the deficit of $347 billion in May 2024. May receipts were $371 billion versus $324 billion a year ago. May outlays were $687 billion versus $671 billion a year ago. The deficit through the first eight months of fiscal year 2025, at $1,365 billion, was above the $1,202 billion deficit over the first eight months of the previous fiscal year. Through the first eight months of fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $1,823 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $1,040 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income fell 0.4% in May (+0.7% in April), while disposable personal income declined 0.6% (+0.8% in April). Consumer spending decreased 0.1% in May after increasing 0.2% the previous month. In May, the PCE price index rose 0.1% and the PCE price index less food and energy (core prices) increased 0.2% for the month. The PCE price index rose 2.3% since May 2024, while core prices increased 2.7% over the same period. In May, prices for goods inched up 0.1% and services rose 0.2%. Food prices increased 0.2%, while energy prices declined 1.0%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in May after increasing 0.2% in April. Over the 12 months ended in May, the CPI rose 2.4%, 0.1 percentage point above the rate for the 12 months ended in April. Core prices (excluding food and energy) inched up 0.1% last month and 2.8% since May 2024. Prices for shelter rose 0.3% in May (the same increase as in April). Food prices increased 0.3% last month after falling 0.1% in April. Energy prices declined 1.0% in May, aided by a 2.6% decrease in gasoline prices. Over the last 12 months ended in May, food prices increased 2.9%, energy prices declined 3.5%, and shelter prices rose 3.9%.
Prices at the wholesale level ticked up 0.1% in May following a revised 0.2% decrease in April, according to the Producer Price Index. Producer prices increased 2.6% for the 12 months ended in May after rising 2.4% for the 12-month period ended in April. Excluding food and energy, producer prices rose 0.1% in May and increased 3.0% for the year. In May, prices for goods increased 0.2% from the previous month and rose 1.3% since May 2024. Last month saw prices for services inch up 0.1% after a revised 0.4% decrease in April. Prices for services have risen 3.2% for the 12 months ended in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the increase over the 12 months ended in April.
Housing: Sales of existing homes increased 0.8% in May but were 0.7% under the May 2024 figure. The median existing-home price, at $422,800, was a record high for the month of May. The median existing-home price was above the April estimate of $414,000 and 1.8% higher than the year-earlier price of $417,200. Unsold inventory of existing homes in May represented a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally longer than the April supply of 4.4 months and well above the 3.8-month supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.1% in May and were 0.3% above the estimate from April 2024. The median existing single-family home price was $427,800 in May ($418,000 in April), and 1.3% above the May 2024 estimate of $422,400.
New single-family home sales declined 13.7% in May and were 6.3% below the May 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in May was $426,600 ($411,400 in April), which was higher than the May 2024 estimate of $414,300. The May average sales price was $522,200 ($511,200 in April), up from the May 2024 average sales price of $499,300. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in May represented a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales pace, up from the April estimate of 8.3 months and above the 8.5-month supply from a year earlier.
Manufacturing: Industrial production declined 0.2% in May following a 0.1% advance in April. Manufacturing output increased 0.1% last month after falling 0.5% in April. In May, mining increased 0.1%, while utilities fell 2.9%. Over the 12 months ended in May, total industrial production was 0.6% above its year-earlier reading. Since May 2024, manufacturing increased 0.5%, utilities fell 1.6%, while mining increased 2.9%.
New orders for durable goods jumped 16.4% in May after falling 6.6% in April. Transportation equipment drove the May advance after increasing 48.3%. New orders excluding transportation, increased 0.5%. Excluding defense, new orders rose 15.5%. For the 12 months ended in May, durable goods orders advanced 6.9%.
Imports and exports: Import prices were unchanged in May following a 0.1% increase in April. Prices for imports increased 0.2% for the 12 months ended in May. Import fuel prices decreased 4.0% in May, the largest monthly decline since September 2024. Import fuel prices fell 15.7% over the past 12 months, which was the largest 12-month decline since the year ended September 2024. Export prices declined 0.9% in May, the largest one-month decrease since October 2023. Despite the May decline, export prices increased 1.7% from May 2024 to May 2025.
The international trade in goods deficit in May was $96.6 billion, 11.1% above the April estimate. Exports of goods for May were 5.2% below April exports. Imports of goods for May were unchanged from April imports. Over the 12 months ended in May, exports rose 6.2%, while imports increased 2.8%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released June 5, saw the goods and services deficit fall 55.5% in April to $61.6 billion. Exports of goods increased 3.0% to $289.4 billion in April. Imports of goods declined 16.3% to $351.0 billion. For the 12 months ended in April 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $179.3 billion, or 65.7%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $58.4 billion, or 5.5%. Imports increased $237.8 billion, or 17.8%.
International markets: In contrast to the U.S. market’s early struggles this year, international markets, particularly those in Europe and Asia, performed well, partly due to a weakening U.S. dollar, which boosted the value of non-U.S. equities. In June, the STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 1.2%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE dipped 0.2%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 8.1%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2.9%. For the second quarter, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE gained 2.1%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index vaulted 13.7%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index increased 3.3%
Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence weakened in June, wiping out nearly half of May’s sharp gains. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 5.4 points in May to 93.0. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 4.6 points to 69.0, substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.
Eye on the Quarter Ahead
July is an important month for economic news, despite the fact that it is also a popular vacation month. The employment report for June is out at the beginning of the month. The number of new jobs has been waning over the past several months. The Federal Open Market Committee meets at the end of the month when interest rates may be adjusted lower.
What I'm Watching This Week 