Tag: economy

The Markets (as of market close April 30, 2026)

The U.S. stock market transitioned from a dour March, marked by deep-seated geopolitical anxiety, to a wave of record-breaking highs in April. U.S. stocks enjoyed their strongest month since the post-pandemic era, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each reaching record highs, despite ongoing strife in the Middle East and rising inflation. After closing March at slightly above 6,500, the S&P 500 surged in April, crossing the 7,000 mark for the first time in its history. The NASDAQ also reached record levels, propelled by a 13-day winning streak, its longest in more than a decade. The Dow and the small caps of the Russell 2000 also posted notable monthly gains.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Month	As of 4/30	Monthly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	46,341.51	49,652.14	7.14%	3.31%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	21,590.63	24,892.31	15.29%	7.10%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,528.52	7,209.01	10.42%	5.31%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,496.37	2,799.91	12.16%	12.81%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,225.90	6,664.36	7.04%	8.02%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.31%	4.39%	8 bps	23 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	99.86	98.06	-1.80%	-0.20%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$101.51	$105.36	3.79%	83.36%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,700.30	$4,630.60	-1.48%	7.09%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Whereas March was haunted by the risk of a full-scale war in Iran, the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and a surge in crude oil prices, April brought ceasefire negotiations and a temporary reopening of the Strait, which prompted oil prices to plummet before rising again. April’s rally was also fueled by a powerful start to corporate earnings season, particularly from large tech and AI companies. Ten of the 11 market sectors ended April with gains, led by information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary, each of which enjoyed double-digit gains. The only laggard was energy, which declined nearly 7.0%.

Price pressures accelerated in April, largely attributable to escalating oil prices. The personal consumption expenditures price index (the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve) and the Consumer Price Index each showed 12-month inflation growth of over 3.0%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. The re-acceleration of inflation in April followed tariff-driven goods inflation from earlier in the year. Some economists noted that prices rose faster than incomes.

The labor market continued to show signs of moderate strengthening. Job growth, which had slowed considerably, rose in March. Private-sector employers added an average of about 55,000 new jobs per week in the four weeks leading up to early April, marking the fastest pace of hiring since September 2025. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% in March but was above the rate from a year earlier.

The Federal Reserve elected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, generally maintaining a neutral, “wait-and-see” approach, citing the need to see evidence that inflation is trending lower before considering a decrease in interest rates.

Corporate earnings season have displayed notable resilience, with the S&P 500 tracking toward its sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. According to FactSet, with about 28% of companies having reported, the earnings growth rate sits at 15.1%, outpacing the initial estimates set at the end of March. AI and technology companies have dominated earnings thus far. In addition, the net profit margin for the S&P 500 reached 13.4% this quarter, which, according to FactSet, is the highest rate since tracking began in 2009.

U.S. Treasuries saw an end to the long-running inversion that began in 2022. Longer yields are rising faster than short-term yields. The ten-year Treasury yield floated between 4.30% to 4.39%, while the yield on two-year Treasuries stayed consistently between 3.78%-3.80%. Geopolitical crude oil shock and sticky inflation, along with inaction by the Federal Reserve, has led to a repricing of Treasuries.

Crude oil prices also experienced volatility in April, largely impacted by escalating geopolitical risks and an historic diplomatic exit from OPEC+. Crude oil prices began the month at around $100 per barrel, surging past $112 per barrel, then falling to $83 per barrel before ending the month at about $105 per barrel. The primary driver of the crude oil volatility was the conflict in the Middle East in general, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in particular. The retail price of regular gasoline was $4.123 per gallon on April 27, $0.162 above the price a month earlier and $0.990 higher than the price a year ago. The dollar showed resilience in April, closing the month on a bullish note despite a myriad of domestic economic factors, including a slowing labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. Gold prices vacillated throughout the month, influenced by escalating geopolitical risks and a hawkish response by the Federal Reserve.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of April 30, 2026.

• Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations in March, as employment rose by 178,000 after declining 133,000 in the previous month. The change in employment for January was revised up by 34,000, from +126,000 to +160,000, and the change for February was revised down by 41,000, from -92,000 to -133,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February, combined, was 7,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in March, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month’s rate but 0.1 percentage point above the March 2025 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in March, at 7.2 million, fell by 332,000 from the previous month and was essentially unchanged from the March 2025 figure. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.8 million in March, was 78,000 below the February rate and accounted for 25.4% of all unemployed persons. The total number of long-term unemployed in March was about 300,000 above the estimate from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate inched down 0.1 percentage point to 61.9% in March and was 0.6 percentage point below the rate from a year earlier. The employment-population ratio in March, at 59.2%, decreased 0.1 percentage point from February and 0.7 percentage point from March 2025. In March, average hourly earnings increased by $0.09, or 0.2%, to $37.38. Over the past 12 months ended in March, average hourly earnings rose by 3.5%. The average workweek edged down 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours last month.
• There were 189,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 25, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,785,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, 0.1 percentage point less than the rate a year earlier. A year ago, there were 239,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,906,000.
• FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not change the federal funds target rate range in April, leaving it at its current 3.50%-3.75%. The Committee is scheduled to meet on June 17.
• GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion accelerated somewhat in the first quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 2.0%, according to the initial estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, GDP rose 0.5%. Compared to the fourth quarter, the increase in GDP in the first quarter reflected advances in government spending (-5.6% to +4.4%) and exports (-3.2% to +12.9%) and a deceleration in consumer spending (+1.9% to +1.6%) that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment (+2.3% to +8.7%). Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, is the primary driver of GDP. In the first quarter, spending on goods fell 0.1%, while spending on services rose 2.4%.
• March 2026 saw the federal budget deficit come in at $164 billion, roughly $143 billion lower than the deficit from the previous month and $350,000 above the estimate from a year earlier. In March, receipts totaled $385 billion, while expenditures were $549 billion. Over the five months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $1,169 billion, $138 billion less than the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same five months, individual income taxes, at $1,245 billion, accounted for about half of the total receipts of $2,483 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $3,651 billion, of which Social Security ($818 billion) was the largest outlay.
• Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) each increased 0.6% in March. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.9%. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.7% in March from the preceding month. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3% in March. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 3.5% (2.8% for the 12 months ended in February). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2% from March 2025 (3.0% for the year ended in February).
• The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.9% in March and 3.3% over the last 12 months, 0.9 percentage point higher than for the 12 months ended in February. Energy prices rose 10.9% in March, led by a 21.2% increase in prices for gasoline, which accounted for nearly three-quarters of the overall monthly increase. Shelter prices also increased in March, rising 0.3%. Food prices were unchanged over the month. Prices less food and energy rose 0.2% in March. Over the last 12 months, prices less food and energy increased 2.6%, prices for shelter rose 3.0%, energy prices advanced 12.5%, and food prices increased 2.7%.
• The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in March after rising 0.5% in February. Producer prices increased 4.0% over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 4.7% for the 12 months ended February 2023. In March, prices for goods rose 1.6% from the previous month, while prices for services were unchanged. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 0.2% in March. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, producer prices moved up 0.2%. For the last 12 months, prices less foods and energy rose 3.8%, while prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.6%.
• Housing: Existing home sales decreased 3.6% in March and 1.0% over the last 12 months. Inventory of existing homes for sale in March, at a 4.1-month supply, ticked up from the prior month’s estimate of 3.8 months. The median sales price in March was $408,800, higher than the February price of $398,000 and above the March 2025 estimate of $403,100. Sales of existing single-family homes decreased 3.5% in March (-0.3% over the last 12 months). The median sales price for existing single-family homes in March was $412,400, up from the previous month’s price of $402,300, and higher than the March 2025 price of $407,300.
• The latest report on new home sales from the Census Bureau was released on March 19 and was for January 2026. The next release is scheduled for May 5. The most recent data shows sales of new single-family houses in January 2026 were 17.6% below the December rate and 11.3% under the January 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in January represented a supply of 9.7 months at the current sales rate, 21.3% above the December estimate and 7.8% over the January 2025 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was $400,500. This was 4.5% under the December 2025 price of $419,200 and 6.8% below the January 2025 price of $429,600. The average sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was $499,500. This was 5.9% lower than the December 2025 price of $530,900 and was 3.6% under the January 2025 price of $518,200.
• Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.5% in March but grew 0.7% from March 2025. Manufacturing output dipped 0.1% last month but increased 0.5% over the last 12 months. In March, the index for mining fell 1.2% (-0.2% for the year), while the index for utilities declined 2.3% (+3.1% for the year).
• New orders for durable goods increased $2.6 billion, or 0.8%, in March after declining the previous three months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3%. Computers and electronic products, up 11 of the last 12 months, led the increase, rising $1.0 billion, or 3.7%.
• Imports and exports: U.S. import prices increased 0.8% in March, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for exports increased 1.6% in March. Over the 12 months ended in March, import prices rose 2.1%, the largest over-the-year advance since import prices rose 2.2% in December 2024. Export prices increased 5.6% since March 2025, the largest over-the-year increase since export prices rose 6.1% in November 2022.
• The international trade in goods deficit was $87.9 billion in March, up 5.3%. Exports of goods for March rose 2.5% since the previous month, while imports of goods increased 3.3%. Over the 12 months ended in March, the trade in goods deficit declined 45.6%. Over that same period, exports increased 16.0%, while imports fell 12.9%.
• The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released April 2, 2026, was for February and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $57.3 billion, an increase of $2.7 billion, or 4.9%, from the January deficit. February exports were $314.8 billion, $12.6 billion, or 4.2% more than January exports. February imports were $372.1 billion, $15.2 billion, or 4.3%, above the January estimate. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $136.1 billion, or 54.8%, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $62.6 billion, or 11.3%. Imports decreased $73.5 billion, or 9.2%.
• International markets: The European stock market began April with significant momentum. However, the rally cooled during the latter half of the month, influenced by rising inflation and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While several of the major indexes managed to close the month ahead, the economy was impacted by surging energy prices and a “wait-and-see” approach from central banks. Asian markets also experienced a volatile month as a tech-driven rally was offset by rising energy costs triggered by the Middle East conflict. For April, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 1.9%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE fell 0.7%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index jumped 10.3%; while China’s Shanghai Composite Index gained 4.9%.
• Consumer confidence: The Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.6 point in April to 92.8 from 92.2 in March. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased by 0.3 point to 123.8. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose by 1.2 points to 72.2.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Most of the attention in May will be focused on the employment figures and inflation data for April. The Federal Open Market Committee does not meet in May.

The Markets (as of market close March 27, 2026)

Wall Street saw stocks continue to trend lower last week, influenced by geopolitical tension, volatile energy markets, and shifting investor sentiment. The Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ each closed the week lower, while the small caps of the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow settled marginally higher. Investors reacted to developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran negotiations and the temporary halt in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The S&P 500 marked its fifth straight weekly decline, its longest such streak since early 2022. With last week’s losses, the NASDAQ slid deeper into correction territory. Energy and materials outperformed, while communication services and information technology notably lagged. Oil prices swung sharply, while economic data showed resilience but rising uncertainty.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 3/27	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	45,577.47	45,166.64	-0.90%	-6.03%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	21,647.61	20,948.36	-3.23%	-9.87%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,506.48	6,368.85	-2.12%	-6.96%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,438.45	2,449.70	0.46%	-1.30%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,148.38	6,150.92	0.04%	-0.30%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.39%	4.44%	5 bps	28 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	99.54	100.14	0.60%	1.91%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$97.79	$100.44	2.71%	74.80%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,515.50	$4,535.30	0.44%	4.89%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Import prices increased 1.3% in February following a 0.6% advance in January. The February advance was the largest monthly increase since March 2022 when prices rose 2.9%. Import prices increased 1.3% for the 12 months ended February 2026. This was the largest annual increase since prices rose 1.7% for the 12 months ended February 2025. The increase last month was driven by increases in prices for fuels and lubricants (3.8%) and nonfuel imports (1.1%). Prices for U.S. exports advanced 1.5% in February after rising 0.6% the previous month. The February increase in export prices was the largest monthly advance since prices climbed 2.7% in May 2022. Higher prices for nonagricultural exports and agricultural exports drove the advance in February. Prices for exports also increased 3.5% over the 12-month period ended in February 2026.
• For the week ended March 21, there were 210,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 14 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 14 was 1,819,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since May 25, 2024, when it was 1,804,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended March 7 were Rhode Island (3.0%), New Jersey (2.8%), Massachusetts (2.7%), Washington (2.4%), Minnesota (2.3%), California (2.2%), Illinois (2.1%), New York (2.1%), Michigan (2.0%), Montana (2.0%), Connecticut (1.9%), and Oregon (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 14 were in Kentucky (+3,305), Oklahoma (+1,201), Tennessee (+553), Nebraska (+357), and Ohio (+271), while the largest decreases were in California (-4,397), Missouri (-3,217), New York (-2,909), New Jersey (-1,745), and Pennsylvania (-1,639).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.961 per gallon on March 23, $0.241 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.846 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of March 23, the East Coast price increased $0.208 to $3.785 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.291 to $3.684 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.192 to $3.604 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.213 to $3.850 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.275 to $5.262 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The labor figures for March are released this week. Employment gains have been somewhat stagnant for the past several months, and most analysts predict March will show minimal job gains.

The Markets (as of market close March 20, 2026)

Stocks fell sharply last week, with each of the benchmark indexes posting declines as rising energy prices, tensions in the Middle East, and renewed stagflation fears dampened risk sentiment. The S&P 500 fell to a four-month low, while underperforming tech stocks impacted the NASDAQ. A higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (see below) and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve pushed the yield on 10-year Treasuries to its highest level since July 2025, which also weighed on long-duration tech and growth stocks. Of the 11 market sectors, only energy closed higher. Among the most underperforming were materials, utilities, and consumer staples. Gold prices continued to recede, falling to a two-month low, affected by rising inflation concerns and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 3/20	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	46,558.47	45,577.47	-2.11%	-5.17%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	22,105.36	21,647.61	-2.07%	-6.86%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,632.19	6,506.48	-1.90%	-4.95%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,480.05	2,438.45	-1.68%	-1.75%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,270.61	6,148.38	-1.95%	-0.34%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.28%	4.39%	11 bps	23 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	100.49	99.54	-0.95%	1.30%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$98.89	$97.79	-1.11%	70.19%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$5,018.60	$4,515.50	-10.02%	4.43%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Following its meeting last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds target rate range at its current 3.50%-3.75%. In arriving at this decision, the Committee noted that while economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, job gains have remained low and inflation continued to be elevated. Uncertainty about the economic outlook also remained heightened, particularly with the developments in the Middle East. The Committee remained strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2.0% objective. Moving forward, the Committee indicated that adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate will be based on an assessment of incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks.
• Industrial production (IP) increased 0.2% in February after moving up 0.7% in January. In February, manufacturing output rose 0.2%, the index for mining grew 0.8%, while utilities output moved down 0.6%. Total IP in February was 1.4% above its year-earlier level.
• The Producer Price Index increased 0.7% in February following an increase of 0.5% in January. Producer prices rose 3.4% for the 12 months ended in February, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 3.4% for the 12 months ended in February 2025. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% in February, marking the tenth consecutive advance. For the 12 months ended in February, prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.5%. In February, more than half of the increase in prices was attributed to a 0.5% advance in the index for services. Prices for goods increased 1.1%.
• Sales of new single-family houses in January were 17.6% below the December 2025 rate and 11.3% below the January 2025 estimate. In January, the number of new single-family homes for sale represented a supply of 9.7 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply was 21.3% above the December 2025 estimate of 8.0 months and 7.8% above the January 2025 estimate of 9.0 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was $400,500. This was 4.5% below the December 2025 price of $419,200 and 6.8% below the January 2025 price of $429,600. The average sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was $499,500. This was 5.9% below the December 2025 price of $530,900 and 3.6% below the January 2025 price of $518,200.
• For the week ended March 14, there were 205,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 7 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 7 was 1,857,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 3,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 28 were Rhode Island (3.4%), New Jersey (3.0%), Massachusetts (2.8%), Washington (2.5%), Minnesota (2.4%), California (2.2%), Illinois (2.1%), Montana (2.1%), New York (2.1%), Connecticut (2.0%), and Oregon (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 7 were in Missouri (+3,907), Virginia (+1,670), Pennsylvania (+1,292), California (+911), and Massachusetts (+779), while the largest decreases were in New York (-14,567), Michigan (-2,549), New Jersey (-616), Connecticut (-471), and Vermont (-468).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.720 per gallon on March 16, $0.218 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.662 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of March 16, the East Coast price increased $0.214 to $3.577 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.117 to $3.393 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.303 to $3.412 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.379 to $3.637 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.297 to $4.987 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week provides important economic reports covering several economic sectors. Data on housing, manufacturing, and international trade and prices will be released this week.

The Markets (as of market close March 13, 2026)

Wall Street saw a third straight week of losses as rising oil prices sparked inflation fears. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here declined as investors moved away from risk. Last week was market by intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The week began on a high note, with markets pushing past early losses to finish in the black. However, persistent concerns about crude oil supplies and surging prices, plus disappointing economic data, pulled stocks to their lowest levels this year. Crude oil prices remained well above $98.00 per barrel, up over 70% for the year. The majority of market sectors closed last week with losses, led by financials and consumer discretionary. Energy, consumer staples, and utilities ended the week higher. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year note reaching its highest level since January after gaining 15 basis points.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 3/13	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	47,501.55	46,558.47	-1.99%	-3.13%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	22,387.68	22,105.36	-1.26%	-4.89%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,740.02	6,632.19	-1.60%	-3.12%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,525.30	2,480.05	-1.79%	-0.07%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,381.29	6,270.61	-1.73%	1.64%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.13%	4.28%	15 bps	12 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	98.92	100.49	1.59%	2.27%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$90.83	$98.89	8.87%	72.10%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$5,178.10	$5,018.60	-3.08%	16.07%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Consumer prices stabilized somewhat in February, according to the latest information released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February following a 0.2% increase in January. Over the 12 months ended in February, the CPI rose 2.4%, unchanged from the rate for the year ended in January. Shelter prices rose 0.2% in February and were the largest factor in the overall monthly increase. Food prices increased 0.4% last month, while energy prices rose 0.6%. Prices less food and energy increased 0.2% in February and 2.5% for the 12 months ended in February, the same increase as in the 12-month period ended in January.
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in January from the previous month and increased 2.8% from January 2025. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4% in January and 3.1% from a year ago. Personal income increased 0.4% in January. Disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) rose 0.9%, and personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer spending, increased 0.4%.
• According to the second estimate, gross domestic product increased 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. GDP advanced 4.4% in the third quarter. Contributing to the increase in GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending (2.0%) and investment (3.3%). These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending (-5.8%) and exports (-3.3%). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased 1.1%. Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was smaller than in the previous quarter.
• The number of job openings in January, at 6.9 million, was 396,000 more than the estimate in December. Hires were unchanged at 5.3 million, while total separations, at 5.1 million, were about 100,000 less than December’s total. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The number of job openings for December was revised up by 8,000 to 6.6 million, the number of hires was revised down by 21,000 to 5.3 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 48,000 to 5.2 million.
• The federal budget deficit rose to $308 billion in February, well above the deficit for January ($95 billion) but on par with the February 2025 deficit of $307 billion. Last month, receipts fell to $313 billion ($560 billion in January), while outlays ticked down from $655 billion in January to $621 billion last month. Over the five months of this fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,004 billion, marginally lower than the $1,147 billion deficit for the same period last fiscal year.
• New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, down three of the last four months, were essentially unchanged from the previous month, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. This followed a 0.9% December decrease. In January, excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.5%. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the January decrease after declining 0.9%.
• The report on the international trade in goods and services was released March 12 and was for January. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the goods and services trade deficit was $54.5 billion, 25.3% below the December deficit. January exports were $302.1 billion, $15.8 billion, or 5.5%, more than December exports. January imports were $356.6 billion, $2.6 billion, or 0.7%, less than December imports. The January decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $17.5 billion to $81.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $1.0 billion to $27.3 billion. Year over year, the goods and services deficit decreased $73.9 billion, or 57.6%, from January 2025. Exports increased $28.4 billion, or 10.4%. Imports decreased $45.5 billion, or 11.3%.
• Existing home sales rose 1.7% in February but were down 1.4% from a year earlier. Unsold inventory, at a 3.8-month supply, was unchanged from the January estimate and up from a 3.6-month one year ago. The median existing home price in February was $398,000, ahead of the January median sales price of $395,000 and up from the February 2025 price of $396,800. Sales of existing single-family homes increased 2.5% last month but were down 1.1% from a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price, at $401,800, was ahead of the January price of $398,200 and marginally above the price from a year earlier ($400,900).
• According to the latest information from the Census Bureau, the number of issued residential building permits fell 5.4% in January from the previous month and was 5.8% below the January 2025 estimate. The number of building permits issued for single-family homes was 0.9% under the December pace. Conversely, the number of housing starts rose 7.2% in January and 9.5% from a year earlier. Home completions increased 4.8% in January but were 7.5% below the January 2025 estimate.
• For the week ended March 7, there were 213,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 28 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 28 was 1,850,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 3,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 21 were Rhode Island (3.3%), Massachusetts (2.9%), New Jersey (2.9%), Washington (2.5%), Minnesota (2.4%), California (2.3%), New York (2.3%), Illinois (2.2%), Montana (2.2%), Connecticut (2.1%), and Michigan (2.1%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 28 were in New York (+17,265), Michigan (+4,482), New Jersey (+1,247), Texas (+964), and Connecticut (+790), while the largest decreases were in Rhode Island (-1,620), Oklahoma (-1,284), Massachusetts (-980), Tennessee (-929), and California (-804).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.502 per gallon on March 9, $0.487 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.433 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of March 9, the East Coast price increased $0.481 to $3.363 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.482 to $3.276 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.465 to $3.109 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.500 to $3.258 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.530 to $4.690 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. The Committee will have quite a bit of information to parse through before determining whether to make any adjustments to interest rates. The conflict in Iran, rising crude oil and gas prices, waning employment, and stubborn inflationary pressures should factor into any decision the FOMC makes.

The Markets (as of market close February 27, 2026)

The last week of the month proved to be a tough one for Wall Street. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the week lower, impacted by stubborn inflation and a cooling of major tech and AI stocks. The Producer Price Index rose faster than in the previous two months (see below), which fueled fears that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current level for longer than investors hoped. Geopolitical risks provided a backdrop of uncertainty. U.S.-Iran tensions escalated, which directly impacted crude oil prices. Financials and information technology were laggards among the market sectors, while defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities, and health care, outperformed.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 2/27	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	49,625.97	48,977.92	-1.31%	1.90%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	22,886.07	22,668.21	-0.95%	-2.47%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,909.51	6,878.88	-0.44%	0.49%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,663.78	2,632.36	-1.18%	6.06%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,611.35	6,690.82	1.20%	8.45%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.08%	3.96%	-12 bps	-20 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	97.72	97.63	-0.09%	-0.64%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$66.39	$67.28	1.34%	17.09%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$5,121.70	$5,280.50	3.10%	22.12%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in January after advancing 0.4% in December 2025 and 0.2% in November. Producer prices rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended January 2026. The January increase in prices can be traced to a 0.8% increase in the prices for services. In contrast, prices for goods declined 0.3%. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3% in January, the ninth consecutive monthly increase. For the 12 months ended in January, prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.4%.
• For the week ended February 21, there were 212,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 14 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 14 was 1,833,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 5,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 7 were Rhode Island (3.0%), New Jersey (2.9%), Massachusetts (2.7%), Minnesota (2.5%), Washington (2.5%), Illinois (2.3%), California (2.2%), New York (2.2%), Montana (2.1%), Michigan (2.0%), Oregon (2.0%), and Pennsylvania (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 14 were in Iowa (+377), Michigan (+105), Florida (+84), and Nevada (+1), while the largest decreases were in New York (-7,615), Pennsylvania (-5,201), New Jersey (-2,845), California (-2,386), and Texas (-2,368).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.937 per gallon on February 23, $0.013 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.188 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 23, the East Coast price increased $0.001 to $2.834 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.008 to $2.675 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.050 to $2.532 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.075 to $2.662 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.066 to $4.111 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The labor figures for February are out this week. New jobs grew by 130,000 in January. Also out this week are the February purchasing managers’ surveys for both manufacturing and services.

The Markets (as of market close February 27, 2026)

The U.S. stock market ended the month on a rather sour note, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closing February in the red, while the Dow managed to just edge into the black. After a strong start in January, the tech rally cooled, as investors grew concerned about market concentration. Tech stocks tumbled, while defensive and cyclical stocks trended higher. Mega-cap stocks, which carried the market throughout 2025, saw increased volatility in 2026. Investors questioned big-tech valuations, seizing an opportunity to take profits. In February, money moved to value stocks, such as energy, materials, and consumer staples.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Month	As of 2/27	Monthly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	48,892.47	48,977.92	0.17%	1.90%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	23,461.82	22,668.21	-3.38%	-2.47%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,939.03	6,878.88	-0.87%	0.49%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,626.55	2,632.36	0.22%	6.06%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,421.40	6,690.82	4.20%	8.45%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.24%	3.96%	-28 bps	-20 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	97.11	97.63	0.54%	-0.64%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$65.55	$67.28	2.64%	17.09%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$5,067.50	$5,280.50	4.20%	22.12%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

While January was a strong month for the U.S. economy, February presented a more complex picture. The labor market stabilized somewhat, while new trade policies and fiscal shifts created volatility in the markets. Gross domestic product appears to be in a recovery phase following last year’s government shutdown. Economic growth slowed from 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025 to 1.4% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending grew by 2.4% in the fourth quarter vs. an expansion of 3.5% in the previous quarter and 3.9% from a year earlier.

Price pressures continued to moderate but remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, impacted by tariffs, both threatened and realized, and overall fiscal policy uncertainty. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.4% in December (+0.2% in November) and 2.9% from December 2024 (+2.8% for the 12 months ended in November 2025).

The labor market continued to show signs of moderate strengthening. Job growth, which had slowed considerably, rose from 48,000 in December to 130,000 in January. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.4% in January but was above the rate from a year earlier.

The Federal Reserve did not meet in February but held interest rates steady in January. While inflation slowly drew nearer to its 2.0% target, the Fed’s stance suggests they are waiting to see how new trade policies impact price stability before considering further cuts.

Among the market sectors, energy, utilities, consumer staples, and industrials led the way, while consumer discretionary and information technology each fell more than 7.0%.

According to FactSet, fourth-quarter corporate earnings yielded solid results even as market valuations remain high. The earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter was 13.2%, which marked the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Corporate revenue growth, at 9.0%, was the highest since the third quarter of 2022. More specifically, 74% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings per share above estimates (slightly below the five-year average of 78%), while 73% have exceeded revenue estimates (above the five-year average of 70%).

U.S. Treasuries began the month with yields trending higher due to sticky inflation and a resilient economy. However, the end of the month saw yields plunge to multi-month lows. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, experienced a volatile month, ultimately tumbling under 4.0%. The yield on two-year Treasuries fell about 12 basis points to 3.4%.

Crude oil prices also experienced volatility in February, largely impacted by escalating geopolitical risks against weakening global demand. While prices surged to a six-month high mid-month due to tensions in the Middle East, a growing global supply surplus pushed prices lower. The retail price of regular gasoline was $2.937 per gallon on February 23, $0.084 above the price a month earlier but $0.188 lower than the price a year ago. The dollar experienced a shift in momentum, with February marking the first monthly gain since October 2025. Gold prices rebounded from a notable crash at the end of January, ultimately regaining momentum to close above the $5,000 mark.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of February 27, 2026.

• Employment: Job growth accelerated somewhat in January, with the addition of 130,000 new jobs after expanding by only 48,000 in the previous month. The change in employment for November was revised down by 15,000 to 41,000, and the change for December was revised down by 2,000 to 48,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined was 17,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in January, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous rate but 0.3 percentage point above the January 2025 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in January, at 7.4 million, edged down 141,000 from December but was 497,000 above the January 2025 figure. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) at 1.8 million in January was 113,000 under the December rate and accounted for 25.0% of all unemployed persons. The total number of long-term unemployed in January was 386,000 above the estimate from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate inched up 0.1 percentage point to 62.5% in January and was 0.1 percentage point below the rate from January 2025. The employment-population ratio in January, at 59.8%, increased 0.1 percentage point from December and 0.3 percentage point from January 2025 (60.1%). In January, average hourly earnings increased by $0.15, or 0.4%, to $37.17. Over the past 12 months ended in January, average hourly earnings rose by 3.7%. The average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in January.
• There were 212,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 21, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,833,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, the same rate as a year earlier. There were 213,000 initial claims a year ago, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,847,000.
• FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not meet in February after leaving the federal funds target rate range at its current 3.50%-3.75% in January. The Committee is scheduled to meet on March 18.
• GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.4%. In the third quarter, GDP rose 4.4%. In the fourth quarter, contractions in government spending, consumer spending, and exports contributed to the overall slowdown in GDP. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, decreased. A year ago, GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter, lower than in the third quarter (3.5%) and below the 2024 fourth quarter pace of 3.9%. Spending on services rose 3.4% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 3.6% increase in the third quarter. Consumer spending on goods decreased 0.1% in the fourth quarter (3.0% in the third quarter). Private domestic investment advanced to 3.8% in the fourth quarter after being unchanged in the third quarter. Nonresidential (business) fixed investment rose 3.7% in the fourth quarter compared with a 3.2% increase in the third quarter. Residential fixed investment declined 1.5% in the fourth quarter, lower than the 7.1% decrease in the third quarter. Exports fell 0.9% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 9.6% increase in the previous quarter. Imports declined 1.3% in the fourth quarter after falling 4.4% in the third quarter.
• January 2026 saw the federal budget deficit come in at $95 billion, roughly $50 billion lower than the deficit of $145 billion from the previous month and $34 billion less than the deficit a year earlier. In January, receipts totaled $560 billion, while expenditures were $655 billion. Over the four months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $697 billion, $143 billion less than the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same four months, individual income taxes, at $924 billion, account for more than half of the total receipts of $1,785 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $2,482 billion, of which Social Security ($540 billion) and Medicare ($403 billion) account for the largest outlays.
• Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each increased 0.3% in December. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in December, the same increase as in November. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.4% in December from the preceding month. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.4% in December. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 2.9%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0% from December 2024.
• The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.2% in January and 2.4% over the last 12 months after rising 2.7% for the 12 months ended in December. The largest factor in the January increase was a 0.2% rise in shelter prices. Food prices increased 0.2% over the month, while energy prices fell 1.5% in January. Prices less food and energy rose 0.3% in January. Over the last 12 months, prices for shelter rose 3.0%, energy prices decreased 0.1%, while food prices increased 2.9%.
• The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in January after rising 0.4% in December. Producer prices increased 2.9% over the last 12 months. In January, prices for goods fell 0.3% from the previous month, while prices for services rose 0.8%. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 0.7% in January, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, producer prices moved up 0.3% in January. For the last 12 months, prices less foods and energy rose 4.2%, while prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.4%.
• Housing: Existing home sales fell 8.4% in January and 4.4% over the last 12 months. Inventory of existing homes for sale in January, at a 3.7-month supply, increased from a 3.5-month supply in both December and from a year earlier. The median sales price in January was $396,800, down from $405,100 in December, but marginally higher than the January 2025 estimate of $393,400. Sales of existing single-family homes also dropped 9.0% in January (-4.3% over the last 12 months). The median sales price for existing single-family homes in January was $400,300, down from the December price of $409,500, and marginally higher than the January 2025 price of $398,100.
• The latest report on new home sales from the Census Bureau was released on February 20 and was for December. Sales of new single-family houses in December 2025 were 1.7% below the November rate but 3.8% above the December 2024 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in December represented a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate, 1.3% below the November estimate and 7.3% below the December 2024 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2025 was $414,400. This was 4.2% above the November 2025 price of $397,600 and 2.0% under the December 2024 price of $423,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in December 2025 was $532,600. This was 0.5% above the November 2025 price of $530,200 and was 4.7% higher than the December 2024 price of $508,900.
• Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7% in January and grew 2.3% from January 2025. Manufacturing output rose 0.6% last month and 2.4% over the last 12 months. In January, the index for mining fell 0.2% (+2.5% for the year), while the index for utilities climbed 2.1% (+1.1% for the year).
• New orders for durable goods, down two of the last three months, decreased 1.4% in December. This followed a 5.4% November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5%. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, drove the overall December decrease, falling 5.3%.
• Imports and exports: U.S. import prices increased 0.1% in December, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Prices for exports increased 0.3% in December. Over the 12 months ended in December, import prices fell 1.8%, while export prices increased 6.8%.
• The international trade in goods deficit for December 2025 was $98.5 billion, 19.0% above the November estimate. Exports of goods for December dipped 3.0%, while imports of goods rose 3.8%. Over the 12 months ended in December, exports decreased 0.4% and imports fell 4.1%.
• The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released February 19, 2026, was for December and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $70.3 billion, an increase of $17.3 billion, or 32.6%, from the November deficit. December exports were $287.3 billion, $5.0 billion, or 1.7% less than November exports. December imports were $357.6 billion, $12.3 billion, or 3.6%, above the November estimate. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $2.1 billion, or 0.2%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $199.8 billion, or 6.2%. Imports increased $197.8 billion, or 4.8%.
• International markets: European equities generally fared well in February as investors shrugged off geopolitical jitters and U.S. trade threats. Markets were buoyed by solid corporate earnings and overall improvement in business activity across the continent. Asian markets, on the other hand, were divergent with record-breaking rallies in Japan and South Korea contrasted by generally muted growth in China and Hong Kong. For February, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 3.7%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE advanced 6.7%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 10.4%; while China’s Shanghai Composite Index ticked up 1.1%.
• Consumer confidence: January saw consumer confidence tick higher in February. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased to 91.2 points in February from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 1.8 points to 120.0 in February. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose 4.8 points to 72.0 in February.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Investors will move into March looking for economic improvement and a slowdown in price pressures.