Investing – Page 3 – What I'm Watching This Week

Monthly Market Review – August 2025

Published on September 2, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close August 29, 2025)

U.S. stocks enjoyed a notable month in August with major indexes reaching new record highs. Wall Street’s performance was largely driven by strong corporate earnings (particularly in technology), an improving trade outlook, and continued economic resilience. During the month, the S&P 500 and the Dow reached record levels, while the NASDAQ saw strong gains and was just shy of its own all-time high. The information technology sector was the primary driver of the market’s growth, with megacap firms, particularly AI and semiconductor companies, fueling the upturn.

Inflation continued to move away from the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), while soft on the surface, contained signs that tariffs were impacting inflation somewhat. For example, prices for furniture, photographic equipment, and vehicles rose on a monthly basis at the fastest rate since April. In addition, the 12-month personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy (core prices) has risen three consecutive months following July’s increase and is now just under 3.0%. The July Producer Price Index (PPI) came in quite hot, which could be a precursor to increasing consumer prices down the line. Overall, inflationary data for July offers further evidence that customs duties are having some impact on the costs of goods and services.

The U.S. economy continued to show signs of renewed growth in the second quarter of 2025 on the heels of a modest decline in the first quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.3% in the second quarter following a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter (see below). Consumer spending rose 1.6% in the second quarter after ticking up 0.5% in the first quarter. However, through the first half of the year, the GDP’s annualized growth rate was projected to be 1.4%, which could be indicative of weakening private sector demand outside of the AI-driven investment boom. Some economists view tariffs, policy uncertainty, rising inflation, and tighter immigration restrictions as potentially causing increasing constraints on economic activity.

The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing down in August, with hiring weakening, unemployment gradually increasing, and long-term concerns about job growth and labor-force participation becoming more prominent. Only 73,000 new jobs were added in July, well below expectations and notably slower than the pace of job creation seen in recent years. July’s weakness was further amplified by larger-than-normal downward revisions to the May and June estimates (see below). However, despite a slowdown in job growth, initial unemployment claims have remained relatively low, suggesting that employers may be leery of laying off workers. Nevertheless, the long-term unemployed reached 1.8 million and accounted for a quarter of all unemployed workers, which could indicate that job hunters are having a harder time re-entering the workforce.

According to FactSet, with roughly 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 81% of companies reported positive earnings per share (EPS). This was above the five-year (78%) and the 10-year (75%) averages. The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the second quarter is 11.8%, which would mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index. The market sectors with the largest positive contributions to the overall earnings growth rate in the second quarter include communication services, information technology, and financials.

The real estate market had mixed results in July, with sales of existing homes rising, while new home sales declined. Mortgage rates eased slightly. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to around 6.56%, the lowest in several months. Although mortgage rates have ticked lower and inventory has increased, affordability remained the largest drawback for potential home buyers.

Industrial production edged lower in July after increasing in June. Manufacturing output was flat in July, while mining and utilities contracted. Purchasing managers reported manufacturing slowed in July, with operating conditions worsening due to a slowdown in demand as respondents indicated uncertainty in relation to tariffs. Activity in the services sector expanded in July, as increasing demand prompted companies to expand their workforces.

The bond market in August was primarily influenced by a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical events, and ongoing tariff discourse. Ten-year Treasury yields were volatile throughout August but generally trended lower, especially after Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments suggesting an interest rate reduction in September. The two-year note, which is more sensitive to Fed policy, closed August at about 3.6%, down nearly seven basis points from the rate at the end of July. The dollar index demonstrated a period of stabilization and mixed performance in August, following a significant decline in the first half of the year. The dollar’s performance was largely influenced by a combination of U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve policy, and global economic dynamics. Gold prices rose in August, marking their seventh straight monthly gain. Crude oil prices decreased for the month. Prices were largely driven by oversupply concerns, production increases, and weakening demand outlook, which were partially offset by geopolitical tensions. The retail price of regular gasoline was $3.147 per gallon on August 25, $0.024 above the price a month earlier but $0.166 lower than the price a year ago.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Month	As of 8/29	Monthly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,130.98	45,544.88	3.20%	7.05%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	21,122.45	21,455.55	1.58%	11.11%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,339.39	6,460.26	1.91%	9.84%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,211.65	2,366.42	7.00%	6.11%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,507.67	5,736.50	4.15%	17.96%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.36%	4.22%	-14 bps	-35 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	100.06	97.79	-2.27%	-9.82%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$69.45	$64.01	-7.83%	-10.80%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,344.70	$3,517.00	5.15%	33.30%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Latest Economic Reports

Employment: The latest employment report for July showed the labor market may be weakening. Job growth ticked higher (+73,000) in July following a downwardly revised June increase of only 14,000. Employment for May was also revised lower to 19,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined was 258,000 lower than previously reported. In July, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%. The number of unemployed persons in July, at 7.2 million, was 221,000 above the June estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 179,000 to 1.8 million. These individuals accounted for 24.9% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in July fell 0.1 percentage point from June to 62.2%. The employment-population ratio in July, at 59.6%, was 0.1 percentage point lower than the June estimate. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, to $36.44 in July. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.9%. The average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in July.
There were 229,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 23, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,954,000. A year ago, there were 232,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,864,000.
FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee did not meet in August, but there was plenty of news surrounding that group. During the month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the time may be right for an interest rate cut in September, despite the fact that inflationary pressures showed signs of mounting. In addition, President Trump attempted to remove a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, following allegations of mortgage fraud.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, advanced at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, rebounding from a 0.5% decrease in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, drove the second-quarter increase, climbing 1.6% after ticking up 0.5% in the first quarter. Spending rose for both services (1.2%) and goods (2.4%). After surging 37.9% in the first quarter, imports (which are a negative in the calculation of GDP) fell 39.8% in the second quarter. However, exports also declined in the second quarter, falling 1.3%, offsetting a 0.4% advance in the first quarter. Private investment declined 13.8% in the second quarter, cutting into the 23.8% gain in the prior quarter.
July saw the federal budget register a deficit of $291 billion. July has registered a deficit 69 times out of 71 fiscal years since there are usually no major corporate or individual tax due dates in that month. July receipts were $338 billion versus $330 billion a year ago. Customs duties (e.g., tariffs) added $28 billion to receipts in July and are up 273% compared to a year ago. Government outlays in July were $630 billion versus $574 billion a year ago. The deficit through the first 10 months of fiscal year 2025, at $1,629 billion, was above the $1,517 billion deficit over the first 10 months of the previous fiscal year. Thus far for fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $2,204 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $1,314 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each rose 0.4% in July (0.3% for each in June). Consumer spending increased 0.5% in July after rising 0.4% the previous month. In July, the PCE price index rose 0.2% after increasing 0.3% in June. Core prices advanced 0.3% last month, unchanged from the June estimate. The PCE price index rose 2.6% since July 2024, while core prices increased 2.9% over the same period. Over the past 12 months ended in July, prices for goods increased 0.5% and services rose 3.6%. Food prices increased 1.9%, while energy prices decreased 2.7%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in July after increasing 0.3% in June. Over the 12 months ended in July, the CPI rose 2.7%, unchanged from the 12-month period ended in June. Core prices rose 0.3% last month and 3.1% since July 2024. The primary factor in the July increase was a 0.2% rise in prices for shelter. Food prices were unchanged in July from the previous month. Energy prices decreased 1.1% in July as gasoline prices declined 2.2% over the month. Over the last 12 months ended in July, food prices increased 2.9%, energy prices declined 1.6%, and shelter prices rose 3.7%.
According to the Producer Price Index, prices at the wholesale level jumped 0.9% in July after being unchanged in June. Producer prices increased 3.3% for the 12 months ended in July after rising 2.3% for the 12-month period ended in June. this was the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4% in February 2025. Excluding food and energy, producer prices rose 0.9% in July and increased 3.7% for the year. In July, prices for goods increased 0.7% from the previous month and rose 1.9% since July 2024. Last month saw prices for services climb 1.1% after a 0.1% decrease in June. This was the largest one-month increase since March 2022. Prices for services rose 4.0% for the 12 months ended in July, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the 2.7% increase over the 12 months ended in June.
Housing: Sales of existing homes increased 2.0% in July and were 0.8% above the estimate from a year earlier. The median existing-home price was $422,400 in July, lower than the June price of $432,700 but above the July 2024 estimate of $421,400. Unsold inventory of existing homes in July represented a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally lower than the June supply of 4.7 months and above the 4.0-month supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 2.0% in July, and were 1.1% above the July 2024 figure. The median existing single-family home price was $428,500 in July ($438,600 in June) and marginally above the July 2024 estimate of $427,200.
New single-family home sales fell 0.6% in July and were 8.2% less than the July 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in July was $403,800 ($407,200 in June), which was lower than the July 2024 estimate of $429,000. The July average sales price was $487,300 ($505,300 in June), down from the July 2024 average sales price of $513,200. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in July represented a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales pace, unchanged from the June estimates, and higher than the July 2024 rate of 7.9 months.
Manufacturing: Industrial production edged down 0.1% in July after increasing 0.4% in June. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3% in June. Mining decreased 0.4% in July, while utilities inched 0.2% lower. Over the 12 months ended in July, total industrial production was 1.4% above its year-earlier reading. Since July 2024, manufacturing increased 1.4%, mining advanced 1.9% and utilities rose 0.8%.
New orders for durable goods fell 2.8% in July after decreasing 9.4% in June. Transportation equipment drove the July decline after falling 9.7%. New orders excluding transportation increased 1.1%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5%. For the 12 months ended in June, durable goods orders advanced 7.9%.
Imports and exports: Import prices advanced 0.4% in July following a 0.1% decrease in June. Prices for imports declined 0.2% for the 12 months ended in July. Import fuel prices increased 2.7% in July, the largest monthly advance since import fuel prices rose 3.0% in January 2025. Import fuel prices fell 12.1% over the past 12 months. Prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.3% in July, following a decrease of 0.3% in June. Export prices ticked up 0.1% in July after rising 0.5% the previous month. Export prices increased 2.2% from July 2024 to July 2025.
The international trade in goods deficit for July was $103.6 billion, 22.1% above the June estimate. Exports of goods for July dipped 0.1% last month, while imports of goods rose 7.1%. Over the 12 months ended in July, exports rose 3.0%, while imports increased 1.7%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released August 5, saw the goods and services deficit contract 16.0% in June to $60.2 billion. Exports of goods decreased 0.5% to $277.3 billion in June. Imports of goods declined 3.7% to $337.5 billion. For the 12 months ended in June 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $161.5 billion, or 38.3%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $82.2 billion, or 5.2%. Imports increased $243.7 billion, or 12.1%.
International markets: European stocks climbed at the end of July after the European Union reached a trade deal with the United States, averting a potentially damaging trade war. European price levels have gradually increased, with annual inflation rising to 2.0% in June from a year earlier. European economic growth has slowed, with gross domestic product ticking up a modest 0.1% in the second quarter. July saw mixed performance in China’s stock market and economic indicators, influenced by ongoing trade dynamics, domestic policies, and a cautious global outlook. In July, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ticked up 0.8%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE rose 3.8%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 3.2%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 3.3%.
Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence fell 1.3 points in August to 97.4 from 98.7 in July. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 1.6 points to 131.2. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased 1.2 points to 74.8 but was still below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.

Eye on the Month Ahead

September will be an important month for market-moving economic data. The August jobs report, released at the end of the first week of the month, follows the July report, which included significant downward revisions evidencing a potential weakening of the labor market. The Federal Reserve meets in September following a break in August. Many experts predict the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points following this meeting.

What I’m Watching This Week – 25 August 2025

Published on August 25, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close August 22, 2025)

Last week was a volatile one for stocks, largely in response to mixed economic data, corporate earnings reports, and the anticipation of a key speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the end of the week. The benchmark indexes listed here ebbed and flowed for much of the week until last Friday, when equities surged after Powell hinted at a likely interest rate cut in September. The S&P 500, the Russell 2000, and the Global Dow each posted weekly gains, with the Dow reaching a record high last Friday. The NASDAQ ended the week in the red despite an end-of-week rally. Treasury yields edged higher earlier in the week, but the prospects of an interest rate cut pulled yields lower by week’s end. Crude oil prices posted their first weekly gain after falling in each of the past two weeks.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 8/22	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,946.12	45,631.74	1.53%	7.26%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	21,622.98	21,496.54	-0.58%	11.32%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,449.80	6,466.91	0.27%	9.95%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,286.52	2,361.95	3.30%	5.91%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,724.32	5,781.00	0.99%	18.88%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.32%	4.26%	-6 bps	-31 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	97.86	97.72	-0.14%	-9.89%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$63.12	$63.76	1.01%	-11.15%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,382.00	$3,417.00	1.03%	29.51%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The number of issued residential building permits fell 2.8% in July and was down 5.7% from July 2024. The number of single-family building permits in July was 0.5% above the June estimate. Housing starts in July were 5.2% above the revised June estimate and 12.9% higher than the July 2024 rate. Single-family housing starts in July were 2.8% above the revised June estimate. The number of housing completions in July was 6.0% above the revised June estimate but was 13.5% below the July 2024 rate. Single-family housing completions in July were 11.6% above the revised June figure.
Sales of existing homes rose 2.0% in July, reflecting a slight improvement in housing affordability. Existing home sales were up 0.8% from July 2024. Inventory of existing homes ticked down from a supply of 4.7 months in June to 4.6 months last month. The median existing-home price was $422,400 in July, down from $432,700 in June but 0.2% above the July 2024 estimate of $421,400. Sales of existing single-family homes also rose 2.0% in July and were up 1.1% over the last 12 months. The median existing single-family home price was $428,500 in July, lower than the June estimate of $438,600 but higher than the July 2024 figure of $427,200. Inventory of existing single-family homes in July sat at a 4.5-month supply.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.125 per gallon on August 18, $0.007 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.257 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of August 18, the East Coast price decreased $0.008 to $2.997 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.003 to $2.994 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.065 to $2.745 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.005 to $3.164 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.012 to $4.044 per gallon.
For the week ended August 16, there were 235,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 9 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 9 was 1,972,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. This was the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021, when it was 2,041,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended August 2 were New Jersey (2.7%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Minnesota (2.2%), California (2.1%), the District of Columbia (2.1%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Oregon (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 9 were in California (+741), New York (+630), Rhode Island (+570), Michigan (+527), and Maryland (+343), while the largest decreases were in Iowa (-704), Illinois (-334), New Jersey (-251), Pennsylvania (-158), and Oregon (-153).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week reveals the second iteration of gross domestic product for the second quarter. The initial estimate of GDP had the economy growing at a rate of 3.0%. Also out this week is the July report on personal income and expenditures. Included in that report are the estimates of consumer spending and prices for consumer goods, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

What I’m Watching This Week – 18 August 2025

Published on August 18, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close August 15, 2025)

Stocks enjoyed another winning week, despite a pullback last Friday. Overall, investor sentiment remained optimistic due to continued expectations of an interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve next month. The latest data (see below) revealed that inflationary pressures showed signs of moving higher. Retail sales advanced in July, as expected, as summer spending remained solid, although sales in some sectors exposed to higher tariffs declined. In addition, more tariffs could be forthcoming after President Trump said he would announce tariffs on imports of steel and semiconductor chips in the coming weeks. Health care outperformed among the market sectors, while industrials, real estate, and utilities declined. Bond yields held around 4.3% for most of the week. Crude oil prices declined as traders awaited the outcome of talks between Presidents Trump and Putin, with expectations that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could lead to increased Russian oil production.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 8/15	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,175.61	44,946.12	1.74%	5.65%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	21,450.02	21,622.98	0.81%	11.97%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,389.45	6,449.80	0.94%	9.66%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,218.42	2,286.52	3.07%	2.53%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,615.85	5,724.32	1.93%	17.71%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.28%	4.32%	4 bps	-25 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	98.26	97.86	-0.41%	-9.76%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$63.44	$63.12	-0.50%	-12.04%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,452.40	$3,382.00	-2.04%	28.18%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The Consumer Price Index for July rose 0.2% after increasing 0.3% the prior month. Shelter prices rose 0.2% in July and were the primary factor in the monthly increase. In July, food prices were unchanged from the previous month, while energy prices fell 1.1%. Prices less food and energy (core prices) advanced 0.3% in July (0.2% in June). Over the last 12 months, consumer prices have risen 2.7%, unchanged from the same period ended in June. Core prices rose 3.1% for the 12 months ended in July, up 0.2 percentage point from the June figure.
The Producer Price Index rose 0.9% in July after being unchanged in June. Producer prices advanced 3.3% for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4% in February 2025. A 1.1% increase in prices for services accounted for more than 75% of the overall increase in prices. Goods prices rose 0.7% last month. In July, producer prices less foods and energy rose 0.4%, while prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.6%. This report may evidence a jump in consumer prices down the line as higher tariffs are passed through.
Retail sales rose 0.5% in July and were 3.9% above the July 2024 estimate. Retail trade sales were up 0.7% last month and 3.7% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 0.8% from June and 8.0% from last year. Sales at food services and drinking places fell 0.4% in July but were up 5.6% from a year ago.
U.S. import prices increased 0.4% in July, while export prices ticked up 0.1%. Since July 2024, import prices declined 0.2%, while export prices advanced 2.2%.
Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1% in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3% in June. In July, mining declined 0.4% and utilities decreased 0.2%. Total IP in July was 1.4% above its year-earlier level. Since July 2024, manufacturing increased 1.4%, mining rose 1.9%, and utilities advanced 0.8%.
The Treasury deficit for July was $291 billion. July has been a deficit month 69 times out of 71 fiscal years, primarily because there are no major corporate or individual tax due dates in this month. In July, government receipts totaled $338 billion, while expenditures were $630 billion. Through the first 10 months of the fiscal year, receipts totaled $4,347 billion, while outlays added up to $5,975 billion, rendering a total deficit of $1,629 billion. This compares with a total deficit of $1,517 billion for the same period last fiscal year, a difference of $112 billion.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.118 per gallon on August 11, $0.022 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.296 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of August 11, the East Coast price decreased $0.011 to $3.005 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.046 to $2.997 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price ticked down $0.051 to $2.680 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.032 to $3.159 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.009 to $4.032 per gallon.
For the week ended August 9, there were 224,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 2 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 2 was 1,953,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 6,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 26 were New Jersey (2.7%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.5%), California (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), the District of Columbia (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Connecticut (1.9%), Oregon, (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 2 were in Texas (+1,002), New Jersey (+942), Connecticut (+555), Oregon (+488), and Pennsylvania (+445), while the largest decreases were in New York (-1,017), California (-924), Kansas (-506), Georgia (-375), and Louisiana (-341).

Eye on the Week Ahead

July data on housing starts and existing home sales is available this week. The housing sector has slowed somewhat due to elevated mortgage rates and asking prices.

Monthly Market Review – July 2025

Published on August 1, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2025)

The economy was generally solid in July, with the stock market continuing its upward trend from the second quarter, albeit with some volatility. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reached record highs in July, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and positive economic sentiment. For much of the month, large caps generally outperformed smaller companies, although the Russell 2000 managed to close July marginally higher.

Inflation remained “somewhat elevated.” As of June 2025, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 2.7% year over year, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was at 2.9%. While headline inflation ticked up, core inflation on an annualized basis in Q2 was slower at 2.4% compared to 3.0% in Q1. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% since June 2024, 0.2 percentage point above the annual rate for the period ended in May. Core prices advanced 2.8% over the last 12 months, unchanged from the comparable period ended in May. The Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate remained at 2.0%.

The U.S. economy showed signs of renewed growth in the second quarter of 2025 following a modest decline in the first quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.0% in the second quarter following a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter (see below). Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter after ticking up 0.5% in the first quarter. Through the first half of the year, GDP’s annualized growth rate is projected to be 1.3%. Trade policies continued to be a significant factor for the economy and for investors. The market’s deepest decline in 2025 occurred after President Trump’s new tariffs announcement in April, though investor sentiment improved following delays or reductions in most tariffs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its global growth outlook for 2025, partly due to early stockpiling ahead of U.S. tariffs and lower-than-expected effective U.S. tariff rates. However, the IMF flagged downside risks if trade shocks worsen and warned that inflation could remain above target in the United States.

The labor market remained solid, with the unemployment rate staying historically low. In June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 147,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.1%. This was higher than the consensus forecast and defied expectations of a rise. Wages rose 3.7% over the past 12 months ended in June. The number of job openings fell by nearly 275,000 in June to 7.4 million, which was roughly in line with expectations. The latest unemployment data showed total claims paid through mid-July increased by 72,000 from a year earlier (see below).

According to FactSet, with roughly 34% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 80% of companies reported positive earnings per share (EPS). However, the year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 6.4% thus far, which, if it holds, would be the lowest earnings growth rate since the first quarter of 2024. Communication services, information technology, and financials are sectors reporting annualized earnings growth, while six sectors, led by energy, are reporting an annualized decline in earnings.

The real estate market had mixed results in June, with sales of existing homes falling, while new home sales rose. Mortgage rates remained elevated. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.72% as of July 31, down 0.2 percentage point from the rate one week before and below the rate of 6.71% one year ago. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage showed little movement, remaining within the same narrow range for the fourth consecutive week. Continued economic growth, along with moderating house prices and rising inventory, bodes well for buyers and sellers alike.

Industrial production advanced in June, while also increasing over the last 12 months. Manufacturing output and utilities each increased, while mining contracted in June. Purchasing managers reported manufacturing expanded in June, with operating conditions improving to the greatest degree in over three years. Activity in the services sector also expanded in June, but at a slower rate than in the previous month.

The bond market in July was primarily influenced by a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical events, and ongoing tariff discourse. Ten-year Treasury yields closed the month higher, moving modestly throughout most of the month. The two-year note, which is more sensitive to Fed policy, closed July at about 3.9%, up from 3.7% at the end of June. The dollar index was muted for much of July, only to rise at the end of the month, while posting its first month-over-month gain of the year. Gold prices rose in July, marking their sixth straight monthly gain. Crude oil prices increased for the month, reaching six-week highs along the way. The retail price of regular gasoline was $3.123 per gallon on July 28, $0.041 below the price a month earlier and $0.361 lower than the price a year ago.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Month	As of 7/31	Monthly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,094.77	44,130.98	0.08%	3.73%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	20,369.73	21,122.45	3.70%	9.38%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,204.95	6,339.39	2.17%	7.78%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,175.04	2,211.65	1.68%	-0.83%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,519.07	5,507.67	-0.21%	13.26%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.23%	4.36%	13 bps	-21 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	96.80	100.06	3.37%	-7.73%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$65.09	$69.45	6.70%	-3.22%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,319.30	$3,344.70	0.77%	26.77%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

Latest Economic Reports

Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations in June after adding 147,000 new jobs (144,000 in May). The June total was in line with the average monthly gain of 146,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment was revised up by a combined 16,000 for April and May. In June, the unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. The number of unemployed persons in June, at 7.0 million, was 222,000 under the May estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, largely offsetting the May decrease. These individuals accounted for 23.3% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in June fell 0.1 percentage point from May to 62.3%. The employment-population ratio in June, at 59.7%, was unchanged from the May figure. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.08, or 0.2%, to $36.30 in May. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.7%. The average workweek edged down 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in June.
There were 218,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 26, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,946,000. A year ago, there were 248,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,874,000.
FOMC/interest rates: Following its meeting in July, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% for a fifth straight time, although two governors dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut. While the Committee noted that fluctuations in net exports continued to influence the data, recent indicators suggest that current economic activity has moderated. This assessment differs from more recent prior statements wherein the Committee described the economy as proceeding at a solid pace. Nevertheless, the FOMC pointed out that the unemployment rate remained low although inflation was somewhat elevated. Overall, the Committee indicated that uncertainty about the economic outlook persisted.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, advanced at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter, rebounding from a 0.5% decrease in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, drove the second-quarter increase, climbing 1.4% after ticking up 0.5% in the first quarter. Spending rose for both services (1.1%) and goods (2.2%). After surging 37.9% in the first quarter, imports (which are a negative in the calculation of GDP) fell 30.3% in the second quarter. However, exports also declined in the second quarter, falling 1.8%, offsetting a 0.4% advance in the first quarter. Private investment declined 15.6% in the second quarter, cutting into the 23.8% gain in the prior quarter.
June saw the federal budget register a surplus of $27 billion, while the deficit over the last 12 months was $1,337 billion. June receipts were $526 billion versus $466 billion a year ago. Tariffs added $27 billion to receipts in June. Government outlays in June were $499 billion versus $537 billion a year ago. The deficit through the first nine months of fiscal year 2025, at $1,337 billion, was above the $1,273 billion deficit over the first nine months of the previous fiscal year. Thus far for fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $2,059 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $1,181 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income rose 0.3% in June (-0.4% in May), while disposable personal income also advanced 0.3% (-0.5% in May). Consumer spending increased 0.3% in June after being unchanged the previous month. In June, the PCE price index rose 0.3% as did the PCE price index less food and energy (core prices). The PCE price index rose 2.6% since June 2024, while core prices increased 2.8% over the same period. In June, prices for goods increased 0.3% and services rose 0.2%. Food prices increased 0.3%, while energy prices increased 0.9%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June after increasing 0.1% in May. Over the 12 months ended in June, the CPI rose 2.7%, 0.3 percentage point above the rate for the 12 months ended in May. Core prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% last month and 2.9% since June 2024. Prices for shelter rose 0.2% in June (+0.3% in May) and were the primary factor in the monthly increase. Food rose increased 0.3% last month, the same increase as in May. Energy prices increased 0.9% in June as gasoline prices rose 1.0% over the month. Over the last 12 months ended in June, food prices increased 3.0%, energy prices declined 0.8%, and shelter prices rose 3.8%.
Prices at the wholesale level were unchanged in June following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in May, according to the Producer Price Index. Producer prices increased 2.3% for the 12 months ended in June after rising 2.6% for the 12-month period ended in May. Excluding food and energy, producer prices were unchanged in June but increased 2.6% for the year. In June, prices for goods increased 0.3% from the previous month and rose 1.7% since June 2024. Last month saw prices for services inch down 0.1% after a revised 0.4% increase in May. Prices for services rose 2.7% for the 12 months ended in June, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the 3.2% increase over the 12 months ended in May.
Housing: Sales of existing homes decreased 2.7% in June but were unchanged from the June 2024 figure. The median existing-home price, at $435,300, was a record high for the month of June, and marked the 24th consecutive month of yearly gains. The median existing-home price was above the May estimate of $423,700 and 2.0% higher than the year-earlier price of $426,900. Unsold inventory of existing homes in June represented a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally longer than the May supply of 4.6 months and above the 4.0-month supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.0% in June but were 0.6% above the estimate from June 2024. The median existing single-family home price was $441,500 in June ($428,800 in May), and 2.0% above the June 2024 estimate of $432,900.
New single-family home sales rose 0.6% in June but were 6.6% below the June 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in June was $401,800 ($422,700 in May), which was lower than the June 2024 estimate of $414,000. The June average sales price was $501,000 ($511,500 in May), up from the June 2024 average sales price of $499,500. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in June represented a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales pace, 1.0% above the May 2025 estimate of 9.7 months, and 16.7% above the June 2024 estimate of 8.4 months.
Manufacturing: Industrial production increased 0.3% in June after being unchanged in April and May. Manufacturing output increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.3% in May. Mining decreased 0.3% in June, while utilities rose 2.8%. Over the 12 months ended in June, total industrial production was 0.7% above its year-earlier reading. Since June 2024, manufacturing increased 0.8%, mining advanced 1.6% but utilities fell 0.8%.
New orders for durable goods fell 9.3% in June after increasing 16.5% in May. Transportation equipment drove the June decline after falling 22.4%. New orders excluding transportation increased 0.2%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 9.4%. For the 12 months ended in June, durable goods orders advanced 7.9%.
Imports and exports: Import prices advanced 0.1% in June following a 0.4% (revised) decrease in May. Prices for imports declined 0.2% for the 12 months ended in June. Import fuel prices decreased 0.7% in June. Import fuel prices fell 15.7% over the past 12 months. Export prices increased 0.5% in June. Export prices increased 2.8% from June 2024 to June 2025.
The international trade in goods deficit in June was $86.0 billion, 10.8% below the May estimate. Exports of goods for June were 0.6% below May exports. Imports of goods for June were 4.2% under May imports. Over the 12 months ended in June, exports rose 3.6%, while imports decreased 2.5%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released July 3, saw the goods and services deficit expand 18.7% in May to $71.5 billion. Exports of goods decreased 4.0% to $279.0 billion in May. Imports of goods declined 0.1% to $350.5 billion. For the 12 months ended in May 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $175.0 billion, or 50.4%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $73.6 billion, or 5.5%. Imports increased $248.7 billion, or 14.8%.
International markets: European stocks climbed at the end of July after the European Union reached a trade deal with the United States, averting a potentially damaging trade war. European price levels have gradually increased, with annual inflation rising to 2.0% in June from a year earlier. European economic growth has slowed, with gross domestic product ticking up a modest 0.1% in the second quarter. July saw mixed performance in China’s stock market and economic indicators, influenced by ongoing trade dynamics, domestic policies, and a cautious global outlook. In July, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ticked up 0.8%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE rose 3.8%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 3.2%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 3.3%.
Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose 4.5 points to 74.4 but was still below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.

Eye on the Month Ahead

August is usually a relatively slow month in the market as investors focus on vacation plans before the end of the summer. However, it will be interesting to see whether, and to what extent, the White House is able to negotiate trade deals that would lead to the reduction of tariffs, most of which are to take effect on August 1.

What I’m Watching This Week – 21 July 2025

Published on July 21, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 18, 2025)

Stocks began last week mostly lower on mixed bank earnings and rising inflation data. While the June Consumer Price Index was in line with expectations (see below), it is worth noting that some imported goods, such as coffee, furniture, clothing, and appliances, climbed higher, which could be due to increased tariffs. However, favorable earnings data toward the end of last week and a better-than-expected retail sales report helped push stocks higher. For most of the week, investors weighed the White House’s push for higher tariffs on the European Union against strong corporate earnings and some favorable economic data. Among the market sectors, utilities and information technology outperformed, while health care, materials, and energy lagged. Long-term bond prices changed little, keeping yields steady. Crude oil prices slipped lower. The dollar edged higher for the second week in a row. Gold prices fell for the first time in the last three weeks.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/18	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,371.51	44,342.19	-0.07%	4.23%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	20,585.53	20,895.66	1.51%	8.21%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,259.75	6,296.79	0.59%	7.06%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,234.83	2,240.01	0.23%	0.44%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,536.57	5,527.29	-0.17%	13.66%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.42%	4.43%	1 bps	-14 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	97.90	98.46	0.57%	-9.20%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$68.75	$66.12	-3.83%	-7.86%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,371.30	$3,355.30	-0.47%	27.17%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May. The June advance was the highest monthly increase since January 2025. Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased 2.7% after rising 2.4% over the 12 months ended in May. Prices for shelter rose 0.2% in June and were the primary factors in the monthly increase. Energy prices rose 0.9% in June as gasoline prices increased 1.0% over the month. Prices for food increased 0.3%. Prices less food and energy (core prices) rose 0.2% in June following a 0.1% increase in May. Core prices rose 2.9% over the last 12 months.
Wholesale prices were unchanged in June, according to the latest Producer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Producer prices rose 0.3% in May. For the 12 months ended in June, producer prices rose 2.3% after advancing 2.6% for the 12 months ended in May. Producer prices excluding food and energy were unchanged in June, as were prices excluding food, energy, and trade services. In June, a 0.3% increase in prices for goods was offset by a 0.1% decrease in prices for services. Over the last 12 months, goods prices rose 1.7%, while prices for services advanced 2.7%.
Import prices advanced 0.1% in June following a 0.4% decrease in May. Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in June. Prices for imports fell 0.2% from June 2024 to June 2025, matching the 12-month decline for the year ended May 2025. Those were the largest annual decreases since the index fell 0.9% for the year ended February 2024. Prices for exports increased 0.5% in June, after declining 0.6% the previous month. Export prices increased 2.8% for the year ended in June, the largest 12-month rise since the 12-month period ended January 2025.
Retail sales rose 0.6% in June and climbed 3.9% from June 2024. Retail trade sales were up 0.6% last month, and rose 3.5% from last year. Nonstore (online) retailer sales were up 4.5% from last year, while sales at food service and drinking places were up 6.6% from June 2024.
Industrial production (IP) beat expectations after increasing 0.3% in June. IP was unchanged in April and May. For the second quarter, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1%. In June, manufacturing output ticked up 0.1%, and the index for mining decreased 0.3%. The index for utilities rose 2.8%. Total IP in June was 0.7% above its year-earlier level.
The number of residential building permits issued in June was 0.2% above the May estimate but was 4.4% below the total from 12 months earlier. Issued building permits for single-family homes were 3.7% under the May figure. The number of housing starts in June was 4.6% above the May total but was 0.5% below the June 2024 rate. Single-family housing starts in June were 4.6% below the May figure. Residential housing completions in June were 14.7% below the May estimate and 24.1% under the June 2024 rate. Single-family housing completions in June were 12.5% below the May rate.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.130 per gallon on July 14, $0.005 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.366 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of July 14, the East Coast price decreased $0.033 to $2.987 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.052 to $3.033 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.053 to $2.738 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.005 to $3.128 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.034 to $4.041 per gallon.
For the week ended July 12, there were 221,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 5 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 5 was 1,956,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 11,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 28 were New Jersey (2.5%), Rhode Island (2.5%), Puerto Rico (2.4%), Minnesota (2.2%), California (2.1%), Massachusetts (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Connecticut (1.8%), Oregon (1.8%), and Pennsylvania (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 5 were in Michigan (+8,854), Tennessee (+3,039), Kentucky (+2,982), New York (+2,279), and Ohio (+1,889), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,193), Nevada (-2,091), Texas (-1,163), Oregon (-1,003), and Minnesota (-984).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Most of this week’s economic data focuses on the housing sector. The June reports on existing home sales and new home sales are available this week. May saw existing home sales tick up 0.8%. Inventory of existing homes available for purchase increased in May. Higher mortgage rates continued to hinder sales. Conversely, new home sales fell more than 13.0% in May. Despite the slowdown, new home prices continued to increase in May.

What I’m Watching This Week – 14 July 2025

Published on July 14, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close July 11, 2025)

Last week, the Trump administration sent letters to dozens of trading partners informing them of country-specific reciprocal tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50%. The levies were initially slated to take effect on July 9, but were pushed back until August 1, presumably to leave room for continued negotiations. The stock market seemed to shrug off tariff news for much of the week before falling back from Thursday’s record highs on Friday and ending slightly in the red. The dollar and gold prices both advanced during the week. U.S. copper prices soared to all-time highs on Tuesday after President Trump said the United States will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, a metal that is a critical component in many different types of manufactured goods. And on Friday, Trump announced that a major statement on Russia was forthcoming, which led to a spike in oil prices caused by expectations of additional sanctions on Russian energy.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 7/11	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,828.53	44,371.51	-1.02%	4.30%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	20,601.10	20,585.53	-0.08%	6.60%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,279.35	6,259.75	-0.31%	6.43%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,249.04	2,234.83	-0.63%	0.21%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,573.04	5,536.57	-0.65%	13.85%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.34%	4.42%	8 bps	-15 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	97.18	97.90	0.74%	-9.72%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$67.00	$68.75	2.61%	-4.19%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,342.90	$3,371.30	0.85%	27.77%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The Treasury budget posted a small surplus of $27.0 billion in June, following May’s $315.7 billion deficit. For fiscal year 2025, the deficit sits at $1,337 billion, compared to $1,273 billion over the same period in the prior fiscal year. To date in FY25, total receipts equaled $4,008 billion, while total outlays were $5,345 billion.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.125 per gallon on July 7, $0.039 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.364 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of July 7, the East Coast price decreased $0.011 to $3.020 per gallon; the Midwest price dropped $0.070 to $2.981 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.054 to $2.685 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dipped $0.042 to $3.133 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.034 to $4.075 per gallon.
For the week ended July 5, there were 227,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 28 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 28 was 1,965,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 21 were Puerto Rico (2.4%), Minnesota (2.3%), New Jersey (2.3%), California (2.2%), Rhode Island (2.2%), Washington (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Oregon (1.8%), and Pennsylvania (1.8%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 28 were in New Jersey (+4,684), New York (+3,323), Illinois (+1,840), Michigan (+826), and Rhode Island (+587), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-2,910), California (-2,822), Connecticut (-2,407), Minnesota (-1,508), and Wisconsin (-1,036).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data for June is available this week with the releases of the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, and the retail sales report. Overall, inflationary pressures have been generally muted; however, prices ticked up in May. The June data could begin to reflect the impact of tariffs on goods and services prices.

Quarterly Market Review: April-June 2025

Published on July 1, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (second quarter through June 30, 2025)

Throughout the second quarter of 2025, global trade tensions caused by reciprocal tariffs and increasing unrest in the Middle East impacted the markets on a daily basis. A new wave of tariffs, particularly against China, created widespread market anxiety and triggered a downturn in April. This was followed by a 90-day de-escalation period announced in May, which temporarily paused some of the heightened tariffs and led to a sharp market rally. The uncertainty surrounding ongoing trade negotiations and the potential for new tariffs remained a key source of volatility throughout the quarter. After a tumultuous start to the quarter, the market showed remarkable resilience and ended June on a high note.

U.S. stocks rebounded in Q2. The S&P 500 began 2025 by enduring its first negative quarter since 2023, and followed that by a decline in April. However, the S&P 500 rebounded later in Q2 to post sharp gains in May and June. The NASDAQ, which had declined over 10.0% in the first quarter, showed strength in the second quarter, driven by growth in AI shares and digital stocks. The Dow and the small caps of the Russell 2000 also closed the second quarter higher. Among the market sectors, the second quarter saw information technology climb more than 23.0%, while communication services rose nearly 20.0%. Energy, health care, and real estate were the only market sectors to lose ground at the end of Q2. The bond market in the second quarter was characterized by heightened volatility and a complex interplay of economic and geopolitical factors, primarily driven by evolving tariff policies and persistent inflation concerns.

While inflation did not escalate to the level some analysts anticipated due to increased tariffs, consumer prices remained somewhat elevated. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gradually decreased, easing some of the inflation fears that had built up earlier in the year. Despite the moderation, inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. The Fed maintained a cautious stance on interest rates, keeping them unchanged, as it balanced the need to control inflation with the potential for an economic slowdown. Corporate earnings reached new highs in the first quarter. While analysts projected slower growth in Q2, early returns on earnings have been mostly favorable, offering cautious optimism for companies in the second quarter. Job growth, while steady, also declined in Q2. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% in the second quarter. Both new claims for unemployment benefits and continuing claims rose during the second quarter.

The U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, partly due to a surge in imports, as businesses increased costs for products and services in anticipation of tariff increases. While a rebound was expected for Q2, the overall growth trajectory of the economy for the remainder of 2025 is anticipated to be slower than in previous years. The U.S. real estate market could be best characterized in the second quarter by a continued upward trend in home prices, gradually improving inventory, and persistently elevated, though somewhat moderating, mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as of June 18 was 6.81%, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.84% one week before and lower than 6.87% one year ago. Gold prices in the second quarter saw significant activity, continuing the strong bullish trend from the first quarter. Gold prices remained at elevated levels, experiencing both sharp rallies and some pullbacks throughout Q2, continuing to set new record highs, with prices surpassing $3,400 per ounce and even touching $3,500 per ounce in April.

Gold, considered a safe haven during volatile economic times, had its best quarter since 1986 after rising nearly 20.0% in the first quarter, as the potential trade war and economic slowdown sent worried investors scurrying for more stable investments. Crude oil prices fluctuated in Q2, influenced by supply increases, softening demand forecasts, and lingering geopolitical tensions. While initial oversupply concerns and weak demand forecasts led to a dip, the latter part of the quarter saw prices rebound, largely driven by easing trade tensions and renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The retail price for regular gasoline was $3.213 per gallon on June 23, $0.053 above the price a month earlier but $0.225 below the price from a year ago.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	As of June 30	Monthly Change	Quarterly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	44,094.77	4.32%	4.98%	3.64%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	20,369.73	6.57%	17.75%	5.48%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,204.95	4.96%	10.57%	5.50%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,175.04	5.26%	8.16%	-2.47%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,519.07	3.62%	8.09%	13.49%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.23%	-17 bps	-1 bps	-34 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	96.80	-2.65%	-7.09%	-10.73%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$65.09	7.04%	-8.81%	-9.29%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,319.30	0.14%	5.16%	25.80%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Latest Economic Reports

Employment: Job growth exceeded expectations in May after adding 139,000 new jobs (147,000 in April). The May total was short of the average monthly gain of 149,000. Employment was revised down by a combined 95,000 for March and April. In May, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The number of unemployed persons in May, at 7.2 million, changed marginally from the April estimate. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 218,000 to 1.5 million. These individuals accounted for 20.4% of all unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate in May fell 0.2 percentage point from April to 62.4%. The employment-population ratio decreased 0.3 percentage point to 59.7%. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.15, or 0.4%, to $36.24 in May. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 3.9%. The average workweek was 34.3 hours for the third month in a row.
There were 236,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 21, 2025. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,974,000. A year ago, there were 233,000 initial claims, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,844,000.
FOMC/interest rates: As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% following its meeting in June. While the Committee indicated that while current economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace and the unemployment rate remained low, inflation was somewhat elevated. The FOMC highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook and noted increased risks to both sides of its dual mandate of maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2.0%.
GDP/budget: The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, decelerated at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025 following an increase of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Compared to the fourth quarter, the decrease in GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, a decrease in government spending, and a deceleration in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by an increase in investment. Consumer spending, as measured by the PCE index, rose 0.5% in the first quarter, compared to a 4.0% advance in the fourth quarter. Spending on services inched up 0.6% in the first quarter, compared with a 3.0% increase in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending on goods rose 0.1% in the first quarter (6.2% in the fourth quarter). Fixed investment increased 7.6% in the first quarter after decreasing 1.1% in the fourth quarter. Nonresidential (business) fixed investment rose 10.3% in the first quarter after falling 3.0% in the previous quarter. Residential fixed investment decreased 1.3% in the first quarter following a 5.5% increase in the fourth quarter. Exports advanced 0.4% in the first quarter, compared with a 0.2% decline in the previous quarter. Imports vaulted 37.9% in the first quarter after ticking down 1.9% in the fourth quarter.
May saw the federal budget register a deficit of $316 billion, in line with expectations and below the deficit of $347 billion in May 2024. May receipts were $371 billion versus $324 billion a year ago. May outlays were $687 billion versus $671 billion a year ago. The deficit through the first eight months of fiscal year 2025, at $1,365 billion, was above the $1,202 billion deficit over the first eight months of the previous fiscal year. Through the first eight months of fiscal year 2025, individual income tax receipts added up to $1,823 billion, while outlays for Social Security totaled $1,040 billion.
Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income fell 0.4% in May (+0.7% in April), while disposable personal income declined 0.6% (+0.8% in April). Consumer spending decreased 0.1% in May after increasing 0.2% the previous month. In May, the PCE price index rose 0.1% and the PCE price index less food and energy (core prices) increased 0.2% for the month. The PCE price index rose 2.3% since May 2024, while core prices increased 2.7% over the same period. In May, prices for goods inched up 0.1% and services rose 0.2%. Food prices increased 0.2%, while energy prices declined 1.0%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in May after increasing 0.2% in April. Over the 12 months ended in May, the CPI rose 2.4%, 0.1 percentage point above the rate for the 12 months ended in April. Core prices (excluding food and energy) inched up 0.1% last month and 2.8% since May 2024. Prices for shelter rose 0.3% in May (the same increase as in April). Food prices increased 0.3% last month after falling 0.1% in April. Energy prices declined 1.0% in May, aided by a 2.6% decrease in gasoline prices. Over the last 12 months ended in May, food prices increased 2.9%, energy prices declined 3.5%, and shelter prices rose 3.9%.
Prices at the wholesale level ticked up 0.1% in May following a revised 0.2% decrease in April, according to the Producer Price Index. Producer prices increased 2.6% for the 12 months ended in May after rising 2.4% for the 12-month period ended in April. Excluding food and energy, producer prices rose 0.1% in May and increased 3.0% for the year. In May, prices for goods increased 0.2% from the previous month and rose 1.3% since May 2024. Last month saw prices for services inch up 0.1% after a revised 0.4% decrease in April. Prices for services have risen 3.2% for the 12 months ended in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the increase over the 12 months ended in April.
Housing: Sales of existing homes increased 0.8% in May but were 0.7% under the May 2024 figure. The median existing-home price, at $422,800, was a record high for the month of May. The median existing-home price was above the April estimate of $414,000 and 1.8% higher than the year-earlier price of $417,200. Unsold inventory of existing homes in May represented a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally longer than the April supply of 4.4 months and well above the 3.8-month supply from a year ago. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.1% in May and were 0.3% above the estimate from April 2024. The median existing single-family home price was $427,800 in May ($418,000 in April), and 1.3% above the May 2024 estimate of $422,400.
New single-family home sales declined 13.7% in May and were 6.3% below the May 2024 figure. The median sales price of new single-family houses sold in May was $426,600 ($411,400 in April), which was higher than the May 2024 estimate of $414,300. The May average sales price was $522,200 ($511,200 in April), up from the May 2024 average sales price of $499,300. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in May represented a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales pace, up from the April estimate of 8.3 months and above the 8.5-month supply from a year earlier.
Manufacturing: Industrial production declined 0.2% in May following a 0.1% advance in April. Manufacturing output increased 0.1% last month after falling 0.5% in April. In May, mining increased 0.1%, while utilities fell 2.9%. Over the 12 months ended in May, total industrial production was 0.6% above its year-earlier reading. Since May 2024, manufacturing increased 0.5%, utilities fell 1.6%, while mining increased 2.9%.
New orders for durable goods jumped 16.4% in May after falling 6.6% in April. Transportation equipment drove the May advance after increasing 48.3%. New orders excluding transportation, increased 0.5%. Excluding defense, new orders rose 15.5%. For the 12 months ended in May, durable goods orders advanced 6.9%.
Imports and exports: Import prices were unchanged in May following a 0.1% increase in April. Prices for imports increased 0.2% for the 12 months ended in May. Import fuel prices decreased 4.0% in May, the largest monthly decline since September 2024. Import fuel prices fell 15.7% over the past 12 months, which was the largest 12-month decline since the year ended September 2024. Export prices declined 0.9% in May, the largest one-month decrease since October 2023. Despite the May decline, export prices increased 1.7% from May 2024 to May 2025.
The international trade in goods deficit in May was $96.6 billion, 11.1% above the April estimate. Exports of goods for May were 5.2% below April exports. Imports of goods for May were unchanged from April imports. Over the 12 months ended in May, exports rose 6.2%, while imports increased 2.8%.
The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released June 5, saw the goods and services deficit fall 55.5% in April to $61.6 billion. Exports of goods increased 3.0% to $289.4 billion in April. Imports of goods declined 16.3% to $351.0 billion. For the 12 months ended in April 2025, the goods and services deficit increased $179.3 billion, or 65.7%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $58.4 billion, or 5.5%. Imports increased $237.8 billion, or 17.8%.
International markets: In contrast to the U.S. market’s early struggles this year, international markets, particularly those in Europe and Asia, performed well, partly due to a weakening U.S. dollar, which boosted the value of non-U.S. equities. In June, the STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 1.2%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE dipped 0.2%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 8.1%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2.9%. For the second quarter, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE gained 2.1%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index vaulted 13.7%; and China’s Shanghai Composite Index increased 3.3%
Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence weakened in June, wiping out nearly half of May’s sharp gains. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 5.4 points in May to 93.0. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 4.6 points to 69.0, substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.

Eye on the Quarter Ahead

July is an important month for economic news, despite the fact that it is also a popular vacation month. The employment report for June is out at the beginning of the month. The number of new jobs has been waning over the past several months. The Federal Open Market Committee meets at the end of the month when interest rates may be adjusted lower.

What I’m Watching This Week – 30 June 2025

Published on June 30, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close June 27, 2025)

Wall Street has come a long way from an April sell-off as investor optimism over trade agreements and a cooling of tensions in the Middle East helped lift stocks to record highs last week. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each hit new highs. Despite inflationary data coming in slightly above expectations, price pressures remained mostly muted (see below). Several market sectors enjoyed notable gains, led by information technology and financials. Energy and real estate moved lower last week. Crude oil prices, which had been surging, had their worst week since March 2023. Gold lost value for the second straight week as global tensions eased, leading to an increase in global trade that reduced the appeal of safe-haven investments. The dollar continued to tumble, hovering near its lowest level since early 2022. With inflation ticking higher in May, coupled with a decrease in consumer spending and a larger-than-expected contraction in first-quarter gross domestic product, the Federal Reserve may be inclined to resume its interest-rate cutting cycle sooner rather than later.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 6/27	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	42,206.82	43,819.27	3.82%	3.00%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,447.41	20,273.46	4.25%	4.99%
S&P 500	5,881.63	5,967.84	6,173.07	3.44%	4.96%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,109.27	2,172.53	3.00%	-2.58%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,339.42	5,501.93	3.04%	13.14%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.37%	4.28%	-9 bps	-29 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	98.82	97.29	-1.55%	-10.28%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$75.00	$65.12	-13.17%	-9.25%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,383.40	$3,287.10	-2.85%	24.58%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The third and final estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product saw the economy contract 0.5%. Compared to the fourth quarter, when GDP rose 2.4%, the downturn in first-quarter GDP primarily reflected an upturn in imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, a decrease in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending, which was partly offset by an increase in fixed investment. The increase in imports was likely attributable, in large part, to purchases made in anticipation of price increases due to tariffs. It is expected that growth in imports will slow in the second quarter. Consumer spending, which is a major component of GDP, moved from a 4.0% increase in the fourth quarter to a 0.5% bump in the first quarter.
Personal income decreased 0.4% in May, according to estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable (after-tax) personal income declined 0.6%, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased 0.1%. The PCE price index for May increased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2%. Over the last 12 months, the PCE price index increased 2.3%, while prices excluding food and energy rose 2.7%.
The international trade in goods deficit was $96.6 billion in May, up $9.6 billion, or 11.1%, from April. Exports of goods for May were $179.2 billion, $9.7 billion, or 5.2%, less than April exports. Imports of goods for May were $275.8 billion, essentially unchanged from April imports. Over the last 12 months, exports have risen 6.2%, while imports advanced 2.8%.
New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods soared 16.4% in May after falling 6.6% in April. New orders for durable goods have risen five of the last six months. New orders for transportation equipment surged 48.3% in May, driving the overall increase for the month. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders ticked up 0.5% last month. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5%. Since May 2024, new orders for durable goods rose 6.9%.
Sales of new single-family houses in May were 13.7% below the April rate and were 6.3% under the May 2024 rate. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May represented a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales rate. The month’s supply was above the April estimate of 8.3 months and higher than the May 2024 estimate of 8.5 months. The median sales price of new houses sold in May was $426,600. This is 3.7% above the April price of $411,400 and is 3.0% above the May 2024 price of $414,300. The average sales price of new houses sold in May was $522,200. This is 2.2% above the April price of $511,200 and is 4.6% over the May 2024 price of $499,300.
Sales of existing homes beat market expectations after unexpectedly rising 0.8% in May, rebounding from April’s 0.5% decline. Despite the May advance, existing home sales were 0.7% below the estimate from a year earlier. Inventory of existing homes for sale ticked up to 4.6 months, slightly higher than the April estimate of 4.4 months. The median existing home sales price in May was $422,800, up from $414,000 in April and higher than the May 2024 price of $417,200. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.1% in May and were 0.3% higher than the May 2024 estimate. The median single-family home price in May was $427,800, higher than the April price of $418,000 and above the $422,400 estimate from a year ago.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.213 per gallon on June 23, $0.074 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.225 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of June 23, the East Coast price increased $0.089 to $3.072 per gallon; the Midwest price climbed $0.061 to $3.087 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.109 to $2.844 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.063 to $3.177 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.035 to $4.162 per gallon.
For the week ended June 21, there were 236,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 14 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 14 was 1,974,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021, when it was 2,041,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 7 were New Jersey (2.2%), California (2.1%), Massachusetts (2.0%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Washington (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Minnesota (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Oregon (1.6%), and Pennsylvania (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 14 were in Pennsylvania (+3,863), Connecticut (+1,750), Oregon (+1,258), Minnesota (+1,173), and Wisconsin (+846), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-1,978), California (-1,933), New York (-1,402), Georgia (-1,200), and Iowa (-1,197).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Fourth of July week brings with it the June employment report. Total employment has been steadily dwindling over the past few months. April saw 147,000 (revised lower) new jobs added, while there were 139,000 new jobs reported in May.

What I’m Watching This Week – 23 June 2025

Published on June 23, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close June 20, 2025)

Stocks closed the week with mixed results as investors weighed the escalating tensions in the Middle East against the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates amidst an apparent disagreement between Federal Reserve governors. The Dow, the NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000 closed the week higher, while the S&P 500 and the Global Dow ended the week in the red. Information technology and energy were the only market sectors to finish the week higher. Health care fell by more than 2.5%. Crude oil prices rose for the third straight week as heightened tensions between Iran and Israel threatened supply disruptions, although Iran continued to export crude oil, reaching its highest level in five weeks. Gold prices marked their first decline in the last three weeks. Long-term bond prices climbed on increased demand, pulling yields lower.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 6/20	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	42,197.79	42,206.82	0.02%	-0.79%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,406.83	19,447.41	0.21%	0.71%
S&P 500	5,881.63	5,976.97	5,967.84	-0.15%	1.47%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,100.51	2,109.27	0.42%	-5.42%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,377.25	5,339.42	-0.70%	9.80%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.42%	4.37%	-5 bps	-20 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	98.18	98.82	0.65%	-8.87%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$73.34	$75.00	2.26%	4.52%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,452.40	$3,383.40	-2.00%	28.23%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% following its meeting last week. In reaching its decision, the Committee noted that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, although swings in net exports have affected the data. The unemployment rate remained low and labor market conditions continued to be solid, while inflation was somewhat elevated. The FOMC observed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had diminished but remained prevalent. The Committee’s summary of economic conditions projects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2025. The FOMC next meets on July 30.
Retail sales fell 0.9% in May from the previous month but were 3.3% above the May 2024 estimate. Retail trade sales were down 0.9% last month but were up 3.0% from last year. Nonstore (online) retail sales climbed 0.9% in May and advanced 8.3% from last year, while sales at food service and drinking places fell 0.9% in May but rose 5.3% from May 2024.
Prices for imports were unchanged in May following an advance of 0.1% in April. Import prices rose 0.2% from May 2024. Import fuel prices declined 4.0% in May, the largest monthly decline since September 2024. Prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.3% in May and rose 1.7% over the last 12 months. Prices for exports decreased 0.9% in May, the largest one-month decline since October 2023. Despite the May decline, export prices increased 1.7% from May 2024 to May 2025.
Industrial production (IP) fell 0.2% in May after increasing 0.1% in April. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1% in May, driven by a 4.9% gain in motor vehicles and parts. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3%. Mining increased 0.1% last month, while utilities decreased 2.9%. Total IP in May was 0.6% above its year-earlier level.
Building permits issued for privately-owned homes in May were 2.0% below the April rate and 1.0% under the May 2024 estimate. Issued building permits for single-family homes in May were 2.7% below the April total. Privately-owned housing starts in May were 9.8% below the April estimate and 4.6% less than May 2024. The drop in housing starts in May marked the lowest level since May 2020. Single-family housing starts in May were 0.4% above the April approximation. Privately-owned housing completions in May were 5.4% above the April estimate but 2.2% below the May 2024 figure. Single-family housing completions in May were 8.1% above the April rate.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.139 per gallon on June 16, $0.031 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.296 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of June 16, the East Coast price increased $0.034 to $2.983 per gallon; the Midwest price climbed $0.060 to $3.026 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.019 to $2.735 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.029 to $3.114 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.027 to $4.127 per gallon.
For the week ended June 14, there were 245,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended June 7 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended June 7 was 1,945,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 5,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 31 were New Jersey (2.3%), California (2.2%), Massachusetts (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.0%), the District of Columbia (1.9%), Nevada (1.7%), Puerto Rico (1.7%), Illinois (1.6%), and New York (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 7 were in California (+8,930), Minnesota (+4,809), Pennsylvania (+3,939), Texas (+3,355), and Florida (+3,088), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-4,249), North Dakota (-980), Tennessee (-693), Mississippi (-273), and Kansas (-178).

Eye on the Week Ahead

This week is loaded with important, potentially market-moving economic data. The latest data on sales of new and existing homes is available at the beginning of the week. The final estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter is released midweek. The week ends with the release of the latest data covering personal income, consumer spending, and consumer prices.

What I’m Watching This Week – 16 June 2025

Published on June 16, 2025 by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close June 13, 2025)

Unrest in the Middle East dragged stock values lower last week, while pushing gold and crude oil prices higher. For much of the week, investors focused on trade talks between the U.S. and China, which ultimately did not result in a significant breakthrough in trade relations and left tariffs at relatively elevated levels. However, favorable inflation data for May offered some encouragement for investors as stocks moved higher last Thursday. Nevertheless, escalating tensions in the Middle East resulted in a sharp drop in stocks last Friday, while crude oil prices jumped over 13% last week. Gold rose more than 3.5%, with prices nearing an April record high as investors sought safety amid rising geopolitical tensions. Among the market sectors, energy and health care outperformed, while financials, industrials, and consumer staples declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 6/13	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	42,762.87	42,197.79	-1.32%	-0.81%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	19,529.95	19,406.83	-0.63%	0.50%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,000.36	5,976.97	-0.39%	1.62%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,132.25	2,100.51	-1.49%	-5.81%
Global Dow	4,863.01	5,382.45	5,377.25	-0.10%	10.57%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	4.25%-4.50%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.51%	4.42%	-9 bps	-15 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	99.19	98.18	-1.02%	-9.46%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$64.74	$73.34	13.28%	2.20%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$3,332.90	$3,452.40	3.59%	30.85%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Consumer prices ticked up 0.1% in May, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). Prices for shelter rose 0.3% in May and were the largest contributor to the overall monthly increase. Food prices increased 0.3%, while energy prices fell 1.0% in May as prices for gasoline declined. Consumer prices less food and energy rose 0.1% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April. Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased 2.4%. Inflationary pressures have remained somewhat muted, despite President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, although some economists expect price pressures to heat up over the second half of the year. Also of note, CPI data will come under closer scrutiny moving forward as the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the suspension of data collection in three cities due to waning resources.
Wholesale prices rose 0.1% in May after declining 0.2% in April, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI). Since May 2024, the PPI has risen 2.6%. Prices for services advanced 0.1% in May, while prices for goods rose 0.2%. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1% in May and 2.7% over the last 12 months.
The monthly federal deficit was $316 billion in May following April’s $258 billion surplus. In May, total receipts were $371 billion, while total outlays were $687 billion. For fiscal year 2025, the deficit sits at $1,365 billion, compared to $1,202 billion over the same period in the prior fiscal year. In FY25, total receipts equaled $3,482 billion, while total outlays were $4,846 billion.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.108 per gallon on June 9, $0.019 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.321 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of June 9, the East Coast price decreased $0.027 to $2.949 per gallon; the Midwest price ticked down $0.001 to $2.966 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.014 to $2.716 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.055 to $3.085 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.053 to $4.154 per gallon.
For the week ended June 7, there were 248,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 31 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 31 was 1,956,000, an increase of 54,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 2,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,970,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 24 were New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), the District of Columbia (1.8%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Oregon (1.6%), and Puerto Rico (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 31 were in Kentucky (+3,967), Minnesota (+2,364), Tennessee (+1,764), Ohio (+1,271), and North Dakota (+593), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-3,783), Massachusetts (-1,585), Florida (-1,456), Iowa (-1,074), and Nebraska (-1,065).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. A few months ago, the consensus was that the Fed would decrease interest rates following their June meeting. However, recent economic indicators relied upon by the Committee tend to point to maintaining the current federal funds rate range.