Tag: stock-market

What I’m Watching This Week – 5 January 2026

Published on by dredheadzLeave a comment

The Markets (as of market close January 2, 2026)

Wall Street began 2026 in rather lackluster style, with each of the major benchmark indexes listed here closing the week lower, with the exception of the Global Dow. A brief tech rally last Friday wasn’t enough to prevent stocks from closing the week in the red. The common year-end rally, known as the “Santa Claus rally,” never materialized as the market notched four straight losing sessions to close out December. Investors appear to be exercising caution as they await the Federal Reserve’s next move in response to sticky inflation and a cooling labor market. Among the 11 S&P 500 market sectors, only energy, utilities, industrials, and materials moved higher, while consumer discretionary, information technology, and financials saw associated stocks fall the furthest. Ten-year Treasury yields edged slightly higher, reflecting ongoing fiscal and inflation concerns. Crude oil prices ticked higher, while gold prices edged lower.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2025 ClosePrior WeekAs of 1/2Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA48,063.2948,710.9748,382.39-0.67%0.66%
NASDAQ23,241.9923,593.1023,235.63-1.52%-0.03%
S&P 5006,845.506,929.946,858.47-1.03%0.19%
Russell 20002,481.912,534.352,508.22-1.03%1.06%
Global Dow6,169.346,196.896,198.720.03%0.48%
fed. funds target rate3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%3.50%-3.75%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.16%4.13%4.18%5 bps2 bps
US Dollar-DXY98.2698.0698.420.37%0.16%
Crude Oil-CL=F$57.46$56.90$57.330.76%-0.23%
Gold-GC=F$4,323.90$4,563.40$4,338.30-4.93%0.33%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Manufacturing improved in December but at a slower pace when compared to November. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ registered 51.8 in December, down from 52.2 in November and signaled the weakest expansion of the manufacturing sector in the last five months. New orders declined for the first time in 2025 and exports fell for the seventh straight month. Tariffs were reported to have weighed on export sales, especially to Canada.
  • For the week ended December 27, there were 199,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended December 20 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended December 20 was 1,866,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended December 13 were Washington (2.5%), New Jersey (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), California (2.1%), Illinois (2.1%), Rhode Island (2.1%), Alaska (2.0%), Montana (1.9%), and Puerto Rico (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended December 20 were in New Jersey (+3,343), Missouri (+1,608), Washington (+1,588), Oregon (+1,364), and Connecticut (+1,291), while the largest decreases were in New York (-1,285), Minnesota (-1,012), Georgia (-730), West Virginia (-713), and Wisconsin (-518).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.811 per gallon on December 29, $0.030 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.195 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of December 29, the East Coast price decreased $0.039 to $2.781 per gallon; the Midwest price ticked up $0.001 to $2.606 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price dropped $0.053 to $2.390 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price declined $0.587 to $2.434 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.037 to $3.731 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The first full week of January 2026 should include the jobs report for December. November saw weakening conditions in the labor market with the unemployment rate rising while job gains slowed.

What I’m Watching This Week – 24 November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 21, 2025)

Volatility continued to characterize the stock market last week. Wall Street endured significant swings driven by a mix of key corporate earnings reports, important economic data following the government’s reopening, and shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the week in the red, unable to recover from a sharp midweek sell-off, despite a rally last Friday. Most of the negative market returns were within the consumer discretionary and information technology sectors. Communication services outperformed last week. Tech shares took a notable downturn last week, despite a favorable earnings report from a major AI/tech giant. The release of the September jobs report (see below), delayed due to the government shutdown, provided mixed signals on the state of the U.S. economy in general and Federal Reserve policy in particular. Better-than-expected job growth was offset by an increase in the unemployment rate, which reinforced the Fed’s dilemma regarding future interest rate cuts. The yield on 10-year Treasuries eased slightly, ending the week down eight basis points. Oversupply concerns drove crude oil prices to a four-week low.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/21Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2247,147.4846,245.41-1.91%8.70%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,900.5922,273.08-2.74%15.34%
S&P 5005,881.636,734.116,602.99-1.95%12.26%
Russell 20002,230.162,388.232,369.59-0.78%6.25%
Global Dow4,863.016,037.775,908.60-2.14%21.50%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%3.75%-4.00%3.75%-4.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.14%4.06%-8 bps-51 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.27100.150.89%-7.64%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$60.03$57.94-3.48%-19.26%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,084.40$4,056.80-0.68%53.75%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Following a more than six-week delay due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment data for September. Employment rose by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April. In September, employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government. The total number of unemployed rose by 219,000 to 7.6 million, while the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. These measures were higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 4.1%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.9 million. Following downward revisions, total employment in July and August combined was 33,000 lower than previously reported. The labor force participation rate (62.4%) and the employment-population ratio (59.7%) each rose 0.1 percentage point in September from the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) dipped by 116,000 to 1.8 million in September. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.6% of all unemployed people. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.09, or 0.2%, to $36.67 in September. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. In September, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.2 hours.
  • For the week ended November 15, there were 220,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 8 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 8 was 1,974,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s level. This was the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021, when it was 2,041,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 1 were New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), the District of Columbia (2.0%), California (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), Oregon (1.7%), and Rhode Island (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 8 were in California (+6,728), New Jersey (+3,302), Texas (+3,101), Michigan (+2,598), and Pennsylvania (+1,816), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-5,500), Missouri (-3,166), Arkansas (-597), Indiana (-411), and Nebraska (-386).
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.062 per gallon on November 17, $0.006 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.016 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of November 17, the East Coast price increased $0.041 to $2.953 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.003 to $2.907 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched up $0.001 to $2.600 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.040 to $2.949 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.039 to $4.120 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The end of the government shutdown should result in the release of economic data and reports. We will continue to track the release of important economic reports as they become available.

What I’m Watching This Week – 17 November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 14, 2025)

Last week was marked by the re-opening of the U.S. government after a prolonged shutdown. However, despite a significant boost to the stock market at the beginning of the week, the positive momentum waned as the week progressed as investors were concerned about high valuation of AI stocks and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 ended the week in the red, while the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Global Dow closed higher. The AI sector, which has been a major market mover for much of the year, experienced significant volatility as investors worried about long-term sustainability. Health care, energy, and materials were market sector gainers, while consumer discretionary and communication services underperformed. Ten-year Treasury yields rose, likely reflecting reduced expectations for another interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting in December. Crude oil prices moved very little from the prior week as ongoing concerns surrounding increasing U.S. inventories and overproduction weighed on prices.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/14Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2246,987.1047,147.480.34%10.82%
NASDAQ19,310.7923,004.5422,900.59-0.45%18.59%
S&P 5005,881.636,728.806,734.110.08%14.49%
Russell 20002,230.162,432.822,388.23-1.83%7.09%
Global Dow4,863.015,970.606,037.771.13%24.16%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%3.75%-4.00%3.75%-4.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.09%4.14%5 bps-43 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.5499.27-0.27%-8.46%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$59.89$60.030.23%-16.35%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,010.40$4,084.401.85%54.80%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data continued to be delayed due to the government shutdown. However, as information becomes available, it will be included herein.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.056 per gallon on November 10, $0.037 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.004 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of November 10, the East Coast price decreased $0.005 to $2.912 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.082 to $2.910 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.088 to $2.599 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.029 to $2.909 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.031 to $4.159 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The end of the government shutdown should result in the release of economic data and reports. We will continue to track the release of important economic reports as they become available.

What I’m Watching This Week – 10 November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close November 7, 2025)

The multi-week bull run ended last week, halted by a notable selloff of tech stocks. The NASDAQ experienced a sharp correction, driven by concerns of overpricing and high valuations, particularly in the technology sector. The S&P 500 suffered its worst week in a month, while the Russell 2000 and the Dow also lost value. Most reporting S&P companies have exceeded profit estimates, but a few major companies disappointed, which weighed on market sentiment. Economic uncertainty, exacerbated by the ongoing government shutdown, appeared to further escalate investor concerns. Among the market sectors, information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary fell the furthest, while health care, real estate, energy, and financials outperformed. Crude oil prices faced downward pressure, resulting in a drop in prices for the second straight week. The fall in crude oil prices was largely influenced by surging U.S. inventories, an increase in production by OPEC+, and a price cut by Saudi Arabia.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 11/7Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2247,562.8746,987.10-1.21%10.44%
NASDAQ19,310.7923,724.9623,004.54-3.04%19.13%
S&P 5005,881.636,840.206,728.80-1.63%14.40%
Russell 20002,230.162,479.382,432.82-1.88%9.09%
Global Dow4,863.016,022.585,970.60-0.86%22.78%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%3.75%-4.00%3.75%-4.00%0 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.10%4.09%-1 bps-48 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.7299.54-0.18%-8.21%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$60.88$59.89-1.63%-16.54%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,013.40$4,010.40-0.07%52.00%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • Manufacturing output ticked higher in October, fueled by the best gain in new orders in the last 20 months. However, growth was primarily led by domestic orders, as new export orders fell due to tariffs negatively impacting international trade. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 52.5 in October, compared to 52.0 in September.
  • According to S&P Global, the service sector registered a solid and accelerated pace of growth during October. Increased output was accompanied by a firm rise in new business, although uncertainty over the economic and political outlook attributed to only modest hiring growth, while confidence about the future fell to a six-month low. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index edged higher in October, rising to 54.8 from September’s 54.2.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.019 per gallon on November 3, $0.016 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.050 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of November 3, the East Coast price increased $0.007 to $2.917 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.025 to $2.828 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price declined $0.069 to $2.511 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.034 to $2.938 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.022 to $4.128 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); http://www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).

What I’m Watching This Week – 3 November 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2025)

Stocks moved generally higher last week, largely driven by solid corporate earnings from some big tech firms. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ each reached record highs during the week, extending a significant rally. The push higher was moderated somewhat by the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on future rate cuts. Despite a lack of updated economic information, the Fed identified concerns about the potential for a weakening job market and stubbornly elevated inflation rates. While trade tensions between the U.S. and China were tempered following a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, analysts cautioned that underlying issues still had not been resolved. Following last week’s interest rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, extending a three-session rally that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a three-week high. Despite an early-week rally, crude oil prices dipped lower last week, primarily due to concerns of global oversupply and increased production.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/31Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2247,207.1247,562.870.75%11.80%
NASDAQ19,310.7923,204.8723,724.962.24%22.86%
S&P 5005,881.636,791.696,840.200.71%16.30%
Russell 20002,230.162,513.142,479.38-1.34%11.17%
Global Dow4,863.016,045.766,022.58-0.38%23.84%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.00%-4.25%3.75%-4.00%-25 bps-50 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%3.99%4.10%11 bps-47 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4498.8899.720.85%-8.04%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$61.47$60.88-0.96%-15.16%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,117.70$4,013.40-2.53%52.11%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% following its meeting last week. This marks the lowest range for the federal funds rate since 2022. The decision was based on a 10-2 vote, with Stephen I. Miran preferring to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, while Jeffrey R. Schmid voted for no change to the target range for the federal funds rate. In seeking to achieve its mandate of maximum employment and inflation at 2.0% over the longer run, the Committee based its rate cut on rising downside risks to employment and elevated inflation.
  • The federal government enjoyed a surplus of $198 billion in September, the last month of fiscal year 2025. Government receipts were $544 billion, while expenditures totaled $346 billion. For fiscal year 2025, total receipts were $5,235 billion, while outlays were $7,010 billion, leaving a deficit of $1,775 billion, which was less than the FY2024 deficit of $1,817 billion.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.035 per gallon on October 27, $0.016 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.062 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 27, the East Coast price increased $0.008 to $2.910 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.068 to $2.873 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price climbed $0.024 to $2.580 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.025 to $2.972 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.060 to $4.106 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown.

What I’m Watching This Week – 20 October 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 17, 2025)

Last week saw another period of volatility in the stock market, largely driven by U.S.-China trade tensions, the ongoing government shutdown, and concerns over the health of the banking sector. Despite market swings throughout the week, stocks ultimately pushed higher by week’s end, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting gains. The financial sector was a major source of volatility last week after reports of loan issues related to alleged fraud at some regional banks sparked credit concerns. However, stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings data from some major banks helped quell investor consternation. The 10-year Treasury yields dipped below 4.00% midweek before climbing later in the week. Crude oil prices declined for the third straight week, while gold prices surged past $4,300.00 per ounce earlier in the week before settling at nearly $4,250.00.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/17Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2245,479.6046,190.611.56%8.57%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,204.4322,679.972.14%17.45%
S&P 5005,881.636,552.516,664.011.70%13.30%
Russell 20002,230.162,394.592,452.172.40%9.95%
Global Dow4,863.015,863.265,956.581.59%22.49%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.00%-4.25%4.00%-4.25%0 bps-25 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.05%4.00%-5 bps-57 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4498.9698.46-0.51%-9.20%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$58.86$57.59-2.16%-19.75%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$4,027.70$4,249.105.50%61.04%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • The release of most economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.061 per gallon on October 13, $0.063 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.110 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of October 13, the East Coast price ticked down $0.032 to $2.952 per gallon; the Midwest price fell $0.121 to $2.812 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price decreased $0.096 to $2.623 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price dropped $0.017 to $3.049 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.013 to $4.213 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There will be little relevant economic data available during the government shutdown.

What I’m Watching This Week – 6 October 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close October 3, 2025)

Investor optimism over AI companies and expectations of interest rate cuts helped propel stocks last week. The S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ reached record highs despite the government shutdown, which caused delays in the release of key economic data (see below). In addition to surging AI stocks, major tech and chip stocks also drove the market. Information technology and health care led the market sectors, while energy showed weakness due to slumping crude oil prices. Ten-year Treasury yields eased slightly during the week, partially due to uncertainty over the employment sector. Bearish crude oil prices were dragged lower by expectations of a production increase by OPEC+.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 10/3Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2246,247.2946,758.281.10%9.91%
NASDAQ19,310.7922,484.0722,780.511.32%17.97%
S&P 5005,881.636,643.706,715.791.09%14.18%
Russell 20002,230.162,434.322,476.181.72%11.03%
Global Dow4,863.015,901.845,978.911.31%22.95%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.00%-4.25%4.00%-4.25%0 bps-25 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.18%4.11%-7 bps-46 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4498.1497.71-0.44%-9.89%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$65.32$60.84-6.86%-15.22%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$3,797.30$3,909.902.97%48.19%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Ordinarily the Bureau of Labor Statistics would release the jobs data for September and the weekly unemployment statistics. However, that information is unavailable due to the government shutdown.
  • The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. The number of job openings for July was revised up by 27,000 to 7.2 million. In August, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million), and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
  • Manufacturing expanded in September but at a slower pace than in the previous month. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ registered 52.0 in September, down from 53.0 in August. Although up for a ninth successive month, new orders rose in September only modestly and at a pace below the survey average. Exports were a source of demand weakness, falling overall for a third month in a row. Tariffs were reported to have weighed on export sales, especially to Canada and Mexico.
  • Similar to the manufacturing sector, growth in the services sector signaled a weaker expansion of business activity in September. Slower growth was linked to a softer expansion of new work despite an improvement in foreign demand for the first time in six months. On the price front, cost pressures remained elevated, driven principally by tariffs and higher salary payments, with increases passed on to purchasers. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index™ recorded 54.2 in September, down from 54.5 in August but above the 50.0 no-change mark that separates growth from contraction.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.118 per gallon on September 29, $0.055 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.061 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 29, the East Coast price decreased $0.047 to $2.983 per gallon; the Midwest price declined $0.080 to $2.928 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.044 to $2.672 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.074 to $3.110 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.034 to $4.238 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There isn’t a great deal of economic data this week. However, investors likely will be looking ahead to next week when the latest Consumer Price Index is released.

What I’m Watching This Week – 8 September 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close September 5, 2025)

The stock market was heavily influenced last week by new data on the labor market, which continued to show signs of cooling and bolstered expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month. Throughout last week, Wall Street experienced some significant swings driven by economic data. The week began with a downturn but ended on a positive note, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hitting new record highs on Friday. Shares of big tech companies were a major factor in the market’s overall movement. Otherwise, the most significant economic news was last Friday’s jobs report (see below), which further highlighted a slowdown in hiring. Ten-year Treasury yields fell sharply by last week’s end, reaching the lowest level in five months, driven by the weakening labor market and a dovish outlook for an interest rate cut.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 9/5Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2245,544.8845,400.86-0.32%6.71%
NASDAQ19,310.7921,455.5521,700.391.14%12.37%
S&P 5005,881.636,460.266,481.500.33%10.20%
Russell 20002,230.162,366.422,391.051.04%7.21%
Global Dow4,863.015,736.505,746.720.18%18.17%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.22%4.08%-14 bps-49 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4497.7997.74-0.05%-9.87%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$64.01$61.97-3.19%-13.64%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$3,517.00$3,642.703.57%38.06%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Job growth was muted for the second straight month in August after increasing by a mere 22,000. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%. The number of unemployed rose by 148,000 to 7.4 million. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.6%, while the labor force participation rate inched up 0.1 percentage point to 62.3%. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 104,000 to 1.9 million. The change in total employment for June was revised down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000, and the change for July was revised up by 6,000, from +73,000 to +79,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.10, or 0.3%, to $36.53 in August. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7%. In August, the average workweek was 34.2 hours for the third month in a row.
  • According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary for July, the number of job openings fell from 7.4 million to 7.2 million. In July, the number of hires inched up marginally to 5.3 million. The number of separations, which includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, dipped slightly to 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged.
  • According to S&P Global, the services sector continued to expand in August after a marginal softening in July. A notable uptick in new business helped support the increase in business activity and encouraged companies to add to their workforces. Despite the increase in activity, worries over tariffs and associated uncertainty caused a drop in confidence to its lowest level in four months.
  • U.S. manufacturing operating conditions improved to the greatest degree in over three years during August amid a surge in production and solid growth in new orders. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) posted 53.0 in August, up from 49.8 in July, marking the strongest improvement in operating conditions since May 2022.
  • The report on international trade in goods and services, released September 4, was for July and revealed that the trade deficit expanded 32.5%. Exports rose 0.3%, while imports jumped 5.9%. Year to date, the goods and services deficit increased 30.9% from the same period in 2024. Exports increased 5.5%. Imports advanced 10.9%.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.177 per gallon on September 1, $0.030 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.112 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 2, the East Coast price increased $0.025 to $3.012 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.011 to $3.088 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.071 to $2.765 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.025 to $3.183 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.042 to $4.148 per gallon.
  • For the week ended August 30, there were 237,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended August 23 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended August 23 was 1,940,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 10,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended August 16 were New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.6%), Puerto Rico (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.1%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), the District of Columbia (2.0%), Connecticut (1.9%), Oregon (1.9%), and Pennsylvania (1.9%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 23 were in New York (+1,430), Texas (+1,230), Illinois (+509), Missouri (+206), and Hawaii (+119), while the largest decreases were in Iowa (-1,235), Virginia (-857), Maryland (-562), Pennsylvania (-482), and Connecticut (-455).

Eye on the Week Ahead

Inflation data for August is available this week. Attention will focus primarily on the Consumer Price Index, which has risen incrementally but steadily over the past several months. The Producer Price Index is also out this week. Last month, producer prices rose 0.9% in July and 3.3% for the year.

What I’m Watching This Week – 16 June 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close June 13, 2025)

Unrest in the Middle East dragged stock values lower last week, while pushing gold and crude oil prices higher. For much of the week, investors focused on trade talks between the U.S. and China, which ultimately did not result in a significant breakthrough in trade relations and left tariffs at relatively elevated levels. However, favorable inflation data for May offered some encouragement for investors as stocks moved higher last Thursday. Nevertheless, escalating tensions in the Middle East resulted in a sharp drop in stocks last Friday, while crude oil prices jumped over 13% last week. Gold rose more than 3.5%, with prices nearing an April record high as investors sought safety amid rising geopolitical tensions. Among the market sectors, energy and health care outperformed, while financials, industrials, and consumer staples declined.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 6/13Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2242,762.8742,197.79-1.32%-0.81%
NASDAQ19,310.7919,529.9519,406.83-0.63%0.50%
S&P 5005,881.636,000.365,976.97-0.39%1.62%
Russell 20002,230.162,132.252,100.51-1.49%-5.81%
Global Dow4,863.015,382.455,377.25-0.10%10.57%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.51%4.42%-9 bps-15 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.4499.1998.18-1.02%-9.46%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$64.74$73.3413.28%2.20%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$3,332.90$3,452.403.59%30.85%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Consumer prices ticked up 0.1% in May, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). Prices for shelter rose 0.3% in May and were the largest contributor to the overall monthly increase. Food prices increased 0.3%, while energy prices fell 1.0% in May as prices for gasoline declined. Consumer prices less food and energy rose 0.1% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April. Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased 2.4%. Inflationary pressures have remained somewhat muted, despite President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, although some economists expect price pressures to heat up over the second half of the year. Also of note, CPI data will come under closer scrutiny moving forward as the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the suspension of data collection in three cities due to waning resources.
  • Wholesale prices rose 0.1% in May after declining 0.2% in April, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI). Since May 2024, the PPI has risen 2.6%. Prices for services advanced 0.1% in May, while prices for goods rose 0.2%. Prices less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1% in May and 2.7% over the last 12 months.
  • The monthly federal deficit was $316 billion in May following April’s $258 billion surplus. In May, total receipts were $371 billion, while total outlays were $687 billion. For fiscal year 2025, the deficit sits at $1,365 billion, compared to $1,202 billion over the same period in the prior fiscal year. In FY25, total receipts equaled $3,482 billion, while total outlays were $4,846 billion.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.108 per gallon on June 9, $0.019 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.321 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of June 9, the East Coast price decreased $0.027 to $2.949 per gallon; the Midwest price ticked down $0.001 to $2.966 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price increased $0.014 to $2.716 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.055 to $3.085 per gallon; and the West Coast price declined $0.053 to $4.154 per gallon.
  • For the week ended June 7, there were 248,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended May 31 was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 31 was 1,956,000, an increase of 54,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 2,000. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,970,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended May 24 were New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), California (2.0%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Massachusetts (1.9%), the District of Columbia (1.8%), Illinois (1.6%), Nevada (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Oregon (1.6%), and Puerto Rico (1.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 31 were in Kentucky (+3,967), Minnesota (+2,364), Tennessee (+1,764), Ohio (+1,271), and North Dakota (+593), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-3,783), Massachusetts (-1,585), Florida (-1,456), Iowa (-1,074), and Nebraska (-1,065).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. A few months ago, the consensus was that the Fed would decrease interest rates following their June meeting. However, recent economic indicators relied upon by the Committee tend to point to maintaining the current federal funds rate range.

What I’m Watching This Week – 17 March 2025

Published on by dredheadz

The Markets (as of market close March 14, 2025)

Wall Street saw momentum ebb and flow throughout last week, with stocks ultimately closing lower for the fourth week in a row. Investors were influenced by growing uncertainty over inflation and tariffs. Despite a strong close to the week, the overall decline in equities has been notable. In less than a month, the benchmark indexes moved into correction territory at a rapid pace. Bond yields rose from 4.21% at the start of the week to 4.30% last Friday. Crude oil prices ticked higher by week’s end as geopolitical uncertainty, particularly over the Ukraine war, continued to weigh on supply and demand concerns.

The stock market sell-off ramped up last Monday as investors’ concerns intensified over tariffs and a possible recession. Megacaps, in particular, and tech shares were hit hardest. The NASDAQ fell 4.0%, marking its worst day since 2022. The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 each lost 2.7%. The Dow declined 2.1%, while the Global Dow dropped 1.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.21% — the lowest rate since last December. Demand concerns dragged crude oil prices lower, falling to $65.98 per barrel. The dollar ticked up 0.1%, while gold prices fell 0.7%.

Last Tuesday saw stocks extend losses amid trade policy uncertainty. Among the benchmark indexes listed here, only the Russell 2000 was able to eke out a minimal (0.2%) gain. The Global Dow fell 1.2%, and the Dow lost 1.1%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, and the NASDAQ slipped 0.2%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.28%. Crude oil prices climbed to $66.53 per barrel. The dollar fell 0.6%, while gold prices gained 0.9%.

Stocks rose moderately higher last Wednesday as inflation concerns eased following the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (see below). Rebounding tech shares helped drive the market overall, with the NASDAQ (1.2%) leading the benchmark indexes listed here. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Global Dow added 0.3%, the Russell 2000 ticked up 0.2%, while the Dow fell 0.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose to 4.31%. Crude oil prices advanced for the second straight day, rising to $67.68 per barrel. The dollar index gained 0.3%, and gold prices rose 0.7%.

Wall Street couldn’t maintain the prior day’s momentum last Thursday as more tariff threats shook investor confidence. The NASDAQ gave back all of Wednesday’s gains after falling 2.0%. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.6%, the S&P 500 declined 1.4%, the Dow dipped 1.3%, and the Global Dow lost 0.7%. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.27%. Crude oil prices dropped 1.7% to $66.56 per barrel. The dollar index rose 0.3%, while gold prices jumped 1.7%.

Stocks rallied last Friday, putting an end to a tough week as concerns over a U.S. government shutdown eased. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed higher, led by the NASDAQ (2.6%), followed by the Russell 2000 (2.5%), the S&P 500 (2.1%), the Dow (1.7%), and the Global Dow (1.5%). Yields on 10-year Treasuries advanced, closing the session at 4.30%. Crude oil prices rose 0.9%. The dollar index slipped 0.1%. Gold prices increased 0.4%.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index2024 ClosePrior WeekAs of 3/14Weekly ChangeYTD Change
DJIA42,544.2242,801.7241,488.19-3.07%-2.48%
NASDAQ19,310.7918,196.2217,754.09-2.43%-8.06%
S&P 5005,881.635,770.205,638.94-2.27%-4.13%
Russell 20002,230.162,075.482,044.10-1.51%-8.34%
Global Dow4,863.015,242.215,156.74-1.63%6.04%
fed. funds target rate4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%4.25%-4.50%0 bps0 bps
10-year Treasuries4.57%4.31%4.30%-1 bps-27 bps
US Dollar-DXY108.44103.83103.70-0.13%-4.37%
Crude Oil-CL=F$71.76$67.07$67.180.16%-6.38%
Gold-GC=F$2,638.50$2,919.20$2,991.202.47%13.37%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

  • Consumer prices growth slowed in February. According to the latest information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index ticked up 0.2% in February after climbing 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months ended in February, the CPI rose 2.8% following a 3.0% increase for the year ended in January. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% in February, following a 0.4% increase in January. The CPI less food and energy index rose 3.1% over the last 12 months. Energy prices decreased 0.2% for the 12 months ended February. Food prices increased 2.6% over the last year. Gasoline prices declined 1.0% in February and 3.1% since February 2024.
  • The Producer Price Index was unchanged in February after advancing 0.6% in January. For the 12 months ended in February, the PPI rose 3.2%. In February, a 0.3% increase in prices for goods offset a 0.2% decline in prices for services. The PPI less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2% in February after rising 0.3% in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.3%.
  • The number of job openings rose by 232,000 to 7.7 million in January, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. The number of hires in January, at 5.4 million, changed little from the prior month. The number of total separations, which include quits, layoffs, and discharges, rose by about 170,000 to 5.3 million in January. In 2024, the annual average job openings level was 7.8 million, a decrease of 1.5 million from 2023. In 2024, the annual hires level was 65.3 million, a decrease of 5.1 million from 2023. Annual total separations decreased by 4.6 million in 2024 to 63.2 million.
  • The government deficit for February was $307 billion, well above the January deficit of $129 billion and slightly over the February 2024 deficit of $296 billion. Through the first five months of the fiscal year, the deficit sits at $1,147 trillion, over 38% higher than the deficit over the same period last fiscal year. So far this year, government receipts, at $1,893 trillion, are marginally above the figure from last fiscal year. Government expenditures, totaling $3,039 trillion, are over 13% higher than expenditures over the same period last year.
  • The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.069 per gallon on March 10, $0.009 per gallon below the prior week’s price and $0.307 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of March 10, the East Coast price fell $0.032 to $2.945 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.017 to $2.899 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.044 to $2.680 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.004 to $2.960 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.042 to $4.099 per gallon.
  • For the week ended March 8, there were 220,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended March 1 was 1.2%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended March 1 was 1,870,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s level. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 22 were Rhode Island (3.4%), New Jersey (2.9%), Massachusetts (2.6%), Minnesota (2.6%), California (2.4%), Illinois (2.4%), Montana (2.4%), Washington (2.4%), Connecticut (2.1%), and New York (2.1%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 1 were in New York (+15,513), Texas (+1,774), Kentucky (+891), Arkansas (+603), and New Hampshire (+573), while the largest decreases were in Massachusetts (-3,885), Rhode Island (-1,984), Michigan (-1,933), Illinois (-1,051), and Iowa (-982).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. While it is unlikely that the Committee will adjust the federal funds rate at this time, investors will pay particular attention to the Committee’s assessment of the economy and whether it gives any indication of the timing of future rate changes.