Tag: stock-market

The Markets (as of market close February 27, 2026)

The last week of the month proved to be a tough one for Wall Street. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed the week lower, impacted by stubborn inflation and a cooling of major tech and AI stocks. The Producer Price Index rose faster than in the previous two months (see below), which fueled fears that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current level for longer than investors hoped. Geopolitical risks provided a backdrop of uncertainty. U.S.-Iran tensions escalated, which directly impacted crude oil prices. Financials and information technology were laggards among the market sectors, while defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities, and health care, outperformed.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 2/27	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	49,625.97	48,977.92	-1.31%	1.90%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	22,886.07	22,668.21	-0.95%	-2.47%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,909.51	6,878.88	-0.44%	0.49%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,663.78	2,632.36	-1.18%	6.06%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,611.35	6,690.82	1.20%	8.45%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.08%	3.96%	-12 bps	-20 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	97.72	97.63	-0.09%	-0.64%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$66.39	$67.28	1.34%	17.09%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$5,121.70	$5,280.50	3.10%	22.12%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in January after advancing 0.4% in December 2025 and 0.2% in November. Producer prices rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended January 2026. The January increase in prices can be traced to a 0.8% increase in the prices for services. In contrast, prices for goods declined 0.3%. Producer prices less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3% in January, the ninth consecutive monthly increase. For the 12 months ended in January, prices less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.4%.
• For the week ended February 21, there were 212,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended February 14 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended February 14 was 1,833,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 5,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended February 7 were Rhode Island (3.0%), New Jersey (2.9%), Massachusetts (2.7%), Minnesota (2.5%), Washington (2.5%), Illinois (2.3%), California (2.2%), New York (2.2%), Montana (2.1%), Michigan (2.0%), Oregon (2.0%), and Pennsylvania (2.0%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 14 were in Iowa (+377), Michigan (+105), Florida (+84), and Nevada (+1), while the largest decreases were in New York (-7,615), Pennsylvania (-5,201), New Jersey (-2,845), California (-2,386), and Texas (-2,368).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.937 per gallon on February 23, $0.013 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.188 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 23, the East Coast price increased $0.001 to $2.834 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.008 to $2.675 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.050 to $2.532 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price fell $0.075 to $2.662 per gallon; and the West Coast price increased $0.066 to $4.111 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The labor figures for February are out this week. New jobs grew by 130,000 in January. Also out this week are the February purchasing managers’ surveys for both manufacturing and services.

The Markets (as of market close February 27, 2026)

The U.S. stock market ended the month on a rather sour note, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closing February in the red, while the Dow managed to just edge into the black. After a strong start in January, the tech rally cooled, as investors grew concerned about market concentration. Tech stocks tumbled, while defensive and cyclical stocks trended higher. Mega-cap stocks, which carried the market throughout 2025, saw increased volatility in 2026. Investors questioned big-tech valuations, seizing an opportunity to take profits. In February, money moved to value stocks, such as energy, materials, and consumer staples.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Month	As of 2/27	Monthly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	48,892.47	48,977.92	0.17%	1.90%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	23,461.82	22,668.21	-3.38%	-2.47%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,939.03	6,878.88	-0.87%	0.49%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,626.55	2,632.36	0.22%	6.06%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,421.40	6,690.82	4.20%	8.45%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.24%	3.96%	-28 bps	-20 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	97.11	97.63	0.54%	-0.64%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$65.55	$67.28	2.64%	17.09%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$5,067.50	$5,280.50	4.20%	22.12%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark the performance of specific investments.

While January was a strong month for the U.S. economy, February presented a more complex picture. The labor market stabilized somewhat, while new trade policies and fiscal shifts created volatility in the markets. Gross domestic product appears to be in a recovery phase following last year’s government shutdown. Economic growth slowed from 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025 to 1.4% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending grew by 2.4% in the fourth quarter vs. an expansion of 3.5% in the previous quarter and 3.9% from a year earlier.

Price pressures continued to moderate but remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, impacted by tariffs, both threatened and realized, and overall fiscal policy uncertainty. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.4% in December (+0.2% in November) and 2.9% from December 2024 (+2.8% for the 12 months ended in November 2025).

The labor market continued to show signs of moderate strengthening. Job growth, which had slowed considerably, rose from 48,000 in December to 130,000 in January. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.4% in January but was above the rate from a year earlier.

The Federal Reserve did not meet in February but held interest rates steady in January. While inflation slowly drew nearer to its 2.0% target, the Fed’s stance suggests they are waiting to see how new trade policies impact price stability before considering further cuts.

Among the market sectors, energy, utilities, consumer staples, and industrials led the way, while consumer discretionary and information technology each fell more than 7.0%.

According to FactSet, fourth-quarter corporate earnings yielded solid results even as market valuations remain high. The earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter was 13.2%, which marked the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Corporate revenue growth, at 9.0%, was the highest since the third quarter of 2022. More specifically, 74% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings per share above estimates (slightly below the five-year average of 78%), while 73% have exceeded revenue estimates (above the five-year average of 70%).

U.S. Treasuries began the month with yields trending higher due to sticky inflation and a resilient economy. However, the end of the month saw yields plunge to multi-month lows. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, experienced a volatile month, ultimately tumbling under 4.0%. The yield on two-year Treasuries fell about 12 basis points to 3.4%.

Crude oil prices also experienced volatility in February, largely impacted by escalating geopolitical risks against weakening global demand. While prices surged to a six-month high mid-month due to tensions in the Middle East, a growing global supply surplus pushed prices lower. The retail price of regular gasoline was $2.937 per gallon on February 23, $0.084 above the price a month earlier but $0.188 lower than the price a year ago. The dollar experienced a shift in momentum, with February marking the first monthly gain since October 2025. Gold prices rebounded from a notable crash at the end of January, ultimately regaining momentum to close above the $5,000 mark.

Latest Economic Reports

The following section contains a review of the latest economic data available as of February 27, 2026.

• Employment: Job growth accelerated somewhat in January, with the addition of 130,000 new jobs after expanding by only 48,000 in the previous month. The change in employment for November was revised down by 15,000 to 41,000, and the change for December was revised down by 2,000 to 48,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined was 17,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in January, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous rate but 0.3 percentage point above the January 2025 estimate. The number of unemployed persons in January, at 7.4 million, edged down 141,000 from December but was 497,000 above the January 2025 figure. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) at 1.8 million in January was 113,000 under the December rate and accounted for 25.0% of all unemployed persons. The total number of long-term unemployed in January was 386,000 above the estimate from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate inched up 0.1 percentage point to 62.5% in January and was 0.1 percentage point below the rate from January 2025. The employment-population ratio in January, at 59.8%, increased 0.1 percentage point from December and 0.3 percentage point from January 2025 (60.1%). In January, average hourly earnings increased by $0.15, or 0.4%, to $37.17. Over the past 12 months ended in January, average hourly earnings rose by 3.7%. The average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in January.
• There were 212,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended February 21, 2026. During the same period, the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,833,000. The insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, the same rate as a year earlier. There were 213,000 initial claims a year ago, while the total number of workers receiving unemployment insurance was 1,847,000.
• FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not meet in February after leaving the federal funds target rate range at its current 3.50%-3.75% in January. The Committee is scheduled to meet on March 18.
• GDP/budget: The rate of economic expansion slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.4%. In the third quarter, GDP rose 4.4%. In the fourth quarter, contractions in government spending, consumer spending, and exports contributed to the overall slowdown in GDP. Imports, which are a negative in the calculation of GDP, decreased. A year ago, GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter, lower than in the third quarter (3.5%) and below the 2024 fourth quarter pace of 3.9%. Spending on services rose 3.4% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 3.6% increase in the third quarter. Consumer spending on goods decreased 0.1% in the fourth quarter (3.0% in the third quarter). Private domestic investment advanced to 3.8% in the fourth quarter after being unchanged in the third quarter. Nonresidential (business) fixed investment rose 3.7% in the fourth quarter compared with a 3.2% increase in the third quarter. Residential fixed investment declined 1.5% in the fourth quarter, lower than the 7.1% decrease in the third quarter. Exports fell 0.9% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 9.6% increase in the previous quarter. Imports declined 1.3% in the fourth quarter after falling 4.4% in the third quarter.
• January 2026 saw the federal budget deficit come in at $95 billion, roughly $50 billion lower than the deficit of $145 billion from the previous month and $34 billion less than the deficit a year earlier. In January, receipts totaled $560 billion, while expenditures were $655 billion. Over the four months of the current fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $697 billion, $143 billion less than the cumulative deficit over the same period of the previous fiscal year. Over the same four months, individual income taxes, at $924 billion, account for more than half of the total receipts of $1,785 billion. Total expenditures for this fiscal year equal $2,482 billion, of which Social Security ($540 billion) and Medicare ($403 billion) account for the largest outlays.
• Inflation/consumer spending: According to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report, personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income each increased 0.3% in December. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in December, the same increase as in November. Consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.4% in December from the preceding month. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.4% in December. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 2.9%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0% from December 2024.
• The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.2% in January and 2.4% over the last 12 months after rising 2.7% for the 12 months ended in December. The largest factor in the January increase was a 0.2% rise in shelter prices. Food prices increased 0.2% over the month, while energy prices fell 1.5% in January. Prices less food and energy rose 0.3% in January. Over the last 12 months, prices for shelter rose 3.0%, energy prices decreased 0.1%, while food prices increased 2.9%.
• The latest data reveals that the Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in January after rising 0.4% in December. Producer prices increased 2.9% over the last 12 months. In January, prices for goods fell 0.3% from the previous month, while prices for services rose 0.8%. Excluding foods and energy, prices increased 0.7% in January, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, producer prices moved up 0.3% in January. For the last 12 months, prices less foods and energy rose 4.2%, while prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.4%.
• Housing: Existing home sales fell 8.4% in January and 4.4% over the last 12 months. Inventory of existing homes for sale in January, at a 3.7-month supply, increased from a 3.5-month supply in both December and from a year earlier. The median sales price in January was $396,800, down from $405,100 in December, but marginally higher than the January 2025 estimate of $393,400. Sales of existing single-family homes also dropped 9.0% in January (-4.3% over the last 12 months). The median sales price for existing single-family homes in January was $400,300, down from the December price of $409,500, and marginally higher than the January 2025 price of $398,100.
• The latest report on new home sales from the Census Bureau was released on February 20 and was for December. Sales of new single-family houses in December 2025 were 1.7% below the November rate but 3.8% above the December 2024 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in December represented a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate, 1.3% below the November estimate and 7.3% below the December 2024 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2025 was $414,400. This was 4.2% above the November 2025 price of $397,600 and 2.0% under the December 2024 price of $423,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in December 2025 was $532,600. This was 0.5% above the November 2025 price of $530,200 and was 4.7% higher than the December 2024 price of $508,900.
• Manufacturing: Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7% in January and grew 2.3% from January 2025. Manufacturing output rose 0.6% last month and 2.4% over the last 12 months. In January, the index for mining fell 0.2% (+2.5% for the year), while the index for utilities climbed 2.1% (+1.1% for the year).
• New orders for durable goods, down two of the last three months, decreased 1.4% in December. This followed a 5.4% November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5%. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, drove the overall December decrease, falling 5.3%.
• Imports and exports: U.S. import prices increased 0.1% in December, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Prices for exports increased 0.3% in December. Over the 12 months ended in December, import prices fell 1.8%, while export prices increased 6.8%.
• The international trade in goods deficit for December 2025 was $98.5 billion, 19.0% above the November estimate. Exports of goods for December dipped 3.0%, while imports of goods rose 3.8%. Over the 12 months ended in December, exports decreased 0.4% and imports fell 4.1%.
• The latest information on international trade in goods and services, released February 19, 2026, was for December and revealed that the goods and services trade deficit was $70.3 billion, an increase of $17.3 billion, or 32.6%, from the November deficit. December exports were $287.3 billion, $5.0 billion, or 1.7% less than November exports. December imports were $357.6 billion, $12.3 billion, or 3.6%, above the November estimate. Year to date, the goods and services deficit decreased $2.1 billion, or 0.2%, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $199.8 billion, or 6.2%. Imports increased $197.8 billion, or 4.8%.
• International markets: European equities generally fared well in February as investors shrugged off geopolitical jitters and U.S. trade threats. Markets were buoyed by solid corporate earnings and overall improvement in business activity across the continent. Asian markets, on the other hand, were divergent with record-breaking rallies in Japan and South Korea contrasted by generally muted growth in China and Hong Kong. For February, the STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 3.7%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE advanced 6.7%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 10.4%; while China’s Shanghai Composite Index ticked up 1.1%.
• Consumer confidence: January saw consumer confidence tick higher in February. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased to 91.2 points in February from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 1.8 points to 120.0 in February. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose 4.8 points to 72.0 in February.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Investors will move into March looking for economic improvement and a slowdown in price pressures.

The Markets (as of market close February 6, 2026)

Last week was defined by volatility as stocks whipsawed between deep, tech-led losses and a late-week rally. Wall Street experienced a mid-week selloff as investors moved away from tech and AI shares. Investors were also concerned about a drop in job openings (see below) and a rise in jobless claims (see below). A surge last Friday pared losses and even helped push the Dow past the 50,000 mark. U.S. bond markets saw prices edge slightly higher, pulling yields lower. The market sectors experienced extreme differences, with consumer staples, industrials, and energy surging, while consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services closed sharply in the red.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 2/6	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	48,892.47	50,115.67	2.50%	4.27%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	23,461.82	23,031.21	-1.84%	-0.91%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,939.03	6,932.30	-0.10%	1.27%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,626.55	2,670.34	1.67%	7.59%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,421.40	6,547.78	1.97%	6.13%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.24%	4.20%	-4 bps	4 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	97.11	97.61	0.51%	-0.66%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$65.55	$63.52	-3.10%	10.55%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$5,067.50	$4,974.00	-1.85%	15.04%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the number of job openings declined 386,000 to 6.5 million in December and was down 966,000 from the end of 2024. The number of hires, at 5.3 million, rose by 172,000. Total separations include quits (voluntary separations), layoffs and discharges, and other separations. In December, the number of total separations increased by 107,000 to 5.3 million. In November, the number of job openings was revised down by 218,000 to 6.9 million, the number of hires was revised up by 6,000 to 5.1 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 64,000 to 5.1 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised up by 32,000 to 3.2 million, the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 14,000 to 1.7 million, and the number of other separations was revised up by 17,000 to 249,000.
• The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ recorded 52.4 in January, up from 51.8 in December. The January reading signaled a stronger rate of expansion in the manufacturing sector. While new orders grew modestly, January’s growth was in part driven by inventory building over the past several months. Tariffs remained a notable issue, driving up input costs and limiting demand gains, especially from international markets.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index ticked up to 52.7 in January, up from 52.5 in December. The index signaled continuous service sector expansion for three years; however, January’s growth was historically weak. Nevertheless, the January rise in business activity in the services sector was supported by stronger expansion in work orders. Despite the uptick, providers noted the steepest reduction in foreign demand in over three years, linked to tariffs and political uncertainty.
• For the week ended January 31, there were 231,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 24 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 24 was 1,844,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 17 were New Jersey (2.8%), Rhode Island (2.8%), Massachusetts (2.7%), Minnesota (2.5%), Washington (2.5%), Michigan (2.2%), Montana (2.2%), California (2.1%), Illinois (2.1%), and Puerto Rico (2.1%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 24 were in Nebraska (+2,074), New York (+1,739), Oklahoma (+938), Virginia (+768), and Iowa (+522), while the largest decreases were in California (-12,531), Michigan (-8,197), Kentucky (-3,879), Texas (-2,187), and South Carolina (-2,095).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.867 per gallon on February 2, $0.014 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.215 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of February 2, the East Coast price increased $0.021 to $2.822 per gallon; the Midwest price decreased $0.043 to $2.650 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.011 to $2.444 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.033 to $2.569 per gallon; and the West Coast price rose $0.122 to $3.827 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The latest data on inflation is available this week, with the release of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the report on retail sales. The CPI rose 2.7% in 2025, while prices excluding the more volatile food and energy categories increased 2.6%.

The Markets (as of market close January 23, 2026)

Last week was marked by volatility as investors moved cautiously ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Wall Street struggled to find direction amidst tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions, resulting in sharp moves in key sectors, with several major market indexes ultimately ending the week lower. The Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ declined for the second straight week, impacted by disappointing corporate forecasts and geopolitical uncertainty. Toward the end of the week, a rebound in big tech, coupled with positive economic data, helped offset early-week losses. Among the market sectors, energy, materials, and consumer staples outperformed, while financials, information technology, industrials, and utilities lagged. Crude oil prices extended gains for the fifth consecutive week, supported by geopolitical and supply risks.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2025 Close	Prior Week	As of 1/23	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	48,063.29	49,359.33	49,098.71	-0.53%	2.15%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	23,515.39	23,501.24	-0.06%	1.12%
S&P 500	6,845.50	6,940.01	6,915.61	-0.35%	1.02%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,677.74	2,669.16	-0.32%	7.54%
Global Dow	6,169.34	6,327.37	6,368.90	0.66%	3.23%
fed. funds target rate	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	3.50%-3.75%	0 bps	0 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.16%	4.23%	4.23%	0 bps	7 bps
US Dollar-DXY	98.26	99.36	97.47	-1.90%	-0.80%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$57.46	$59.30	$61.29	3.36%	6.67%
Gold-GC=F	$4,323.90	$4,595.80	$4,981.60	8.39%	15.21%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest report on gross domestic product. GDP increased 3.8% in the second quarter. The third-quarter expansion was the largest since the third quarter of 2023. The increase in GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending (3.5%), exports (9.6%), government spending (2.2%), and investment, which moved from -13.8% in Q2 to 0.0% in Q3. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased 4.4%.
• Due to the recent government shutdown, the January 22, 2026, report on Personal Income and Outlays covers October and November, and it replaces releases originally scheduled for November 26 and December 19, 2025. Personal income increased 0.1% in October, followed by a 0.3% advance in November, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable (after-tax) personal income ticked up 0.1% in October, followed by an increase of 0.3% in November. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.5% in October, the same increase as in November. From the preceding month, the PCE price index increased 0.2% in both October and November. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.2% in both months. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index increased 2.7% in October, followed by an increase of 2.8% in November. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 2.7% in October, followed by an advance of 2.8% in November.
• For the week ended January 17, there were 200,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended January 10 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended January 10 was 1,849,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 9,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended January 3 were Rhode Island (3.3%), New Jersey (3.2%), Washington (2.8%), Massachusetts (2.7%), Minnesota (2.7%), Oregon (2.4%), Connecticut (2.3%), Montana (2.3%), New York (2.3%), California (2.2%), Illinois (2.2%), and Pennsylvania (2.2%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended January 10 were in Texas (+8,707), California (+5,193), Michigan (+3,804), Tennessee (+3,541), and Ohio (+3,038), while the largest decreases were in New York (-4,572), Oregon (-3,507), Washington (-3,189), Wisconsin (-2,063), and Kentucky (-1,699).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.806 per gallon on January 19, $0.027 per gallon above the prior week’s price but $0.303 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of January 19, the East Coast price increased $0.022 to $2.763 per gallon; the Midwest price ticked up $0.044 to $2.648 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.022 to $2.397 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.072 to $2.494 per gallon; and the West Coast price inched up $0.008 to $3.657 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. The odds are slightly in favor of the FOMC maintaining interest rates at their current level, although it would not be a surprise if the Committee decided to lower rates another 25.0 basis points.

The Markets (as of market close November 21, 2025)

Volatility continued to characterize the stock market last week. Wall Street endured significant swings driven by a mix of key corporate earnings reports, important economic data following the government’s reopening, and shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended the week in the red, unable to recover from a sharp midweek sell-off, despite a rally last Friday. Most of the negative market returns were within the consumer discretionary and information technology sectors. Communication services outperformed last week. Tech shares took a notable downturn last week, despite a favorable earnings report from a major AI/tech giant. The release of the September jobs report (see below), delayed due to the government shutdown, provided mixed signals on the state of the U.S. economy in general and Federal Reserve policy in particular. Better-than-expected job growth was offset by an increase in the unemployment rate, which reinforced the Fed’s dilemma regarding future interest rate cuts. The yield on 10-year Treasuries eased slightly, ending the week down eight basis points. Oversupply concerns drove crude oil prices to a four-week low.

Stock Market Indexes

Market/Index	2024 Close	Prior Week	As of 11/21	Weekly Change	YTD Change
DJIA	42,544.22	47,147.48	46,245.41	-1.91%	8.70%
NASDAQ	19,310.79	22,900.59	22,273.08	-2.74%	15.34%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,734.11	6,602.99	-1.95%	12.26%
Russell 2000	2,230.16	2,388.23	2,369.59	-0.78%	6.25%
Global Dow	4,863.01	6,037.77	5,908.60	-2.14%	21.50%
fed. funds target rate	4.25%-4.50%	3.75%-4.00%	3.75%-4.00%	0 bps	-50 bps
10-year Treasuries	4.57%	4.14%	4.06%	-8 bps	-51 bps
US Dollar-DXY	108.44	99.27	100.15	0.89%	-7.64%
Crude Oil-CL=F	$71.76	$60.03	$57.94	-3.48%	-19.26%
Gold-GC=F	$2,638.50	$4,084.40	$4,056.80	-0.68%	53.75%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

• Following a more than six-week delay due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment data for September. Employment rose by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April. In September, employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government. The total number of unemployed rose by 219,000 to 7.6 million, while the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. These measures were higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 4.1%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.9 million. Following downward revisions, total employment in July and August combined was 33,000 lower than previously reported. The labor force participation rate (62.4%) and the employment-population ratio (59.7%) each rose 0.1 percentage point in September from the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) dipped by 116,000 to 1.8 million in September. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.6% of all unemployed people. Average hourly earnings rose by $0.09, or 0.2%, to $36.67 in September. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. In September, the average workweek was unchanged at 34.2 hours.
• For the week ended November 15, there were 220,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended November 8 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended November 8 was 1,974,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s level. This was the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021, when it was 2,041,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended November 1 were New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), the District of Columbia (2.0%), California (1.9%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Puerto Rico (1.9%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), Oregon (1.7%), and Rhode Island (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 8 were in California (+6,728), New Jersey (+3,302), Texas (+3,101), Michigan (+2,598), and Pennsylvania (+1,816), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-5,500), Missouri (-3,166), Arkansas (-597), Indiana (-411), and Nebraska (-386).
• The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.062 per gallon on November 17, $0.006 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.016 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of November 17, the East Coast price increased $0.041 to $2.953 per gallon; the Midwest price dipped $0.003 to $2.907 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price inched up $0.001 to $2.600 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price rose $0.040 to $2.949 per gallon; and the West Coast price fell $0.039 to $4.120 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The end of the government shutdown should result in the release of economic data and reports. We will continue to track the release of important economic reports as they become available.